Search results for: fuzzy logic multi-criteria decision making

Authors: Vânia Costa, Nuno De Sá Teixeira, Ana C. Santos, Eduardo Santos

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Financial literacy and numeracy have been regarded as paramount for rational household decision making in the increasing complexity of financial markets. However, financial decisions are often made under sub-optimal circumstances, including cognitive overload. The present study aims to clarify how financial literacy and numeracy, taken as relevant expert knowledge for financial decision-making, modulate possible effects of cognitive load. Participants were required to perform a choice between a sure loss or a gambling pertaining a financial investment, either with or without a competing memory task. Two experiments were conducted varying only the content of the competing task. In the first, the financial choice task was made while maintaining on working memory a list of five random letters. In the second, cognitive load was based upon the retention of six random digits. In both experiments, one of the items in the list had to be recalled given its serial position. Outcomes of the first experiment revealed no significant main effect or interactions involving cognitive load manipulation and numeracy and financial literacy skills, strongly suggesting that retaining a list of random letters did not interfere with the cognitive abilities required for financial decision making. Conversely, and in the second experiment, a significant interaction between the competing mnesic task and level of financial literacy (but not numeracy) was found for the frequency of choice of a gambling option. Overall, and in the control condition, both participants with high financial literacy and high numeracy were more prone to choose the gambling option. However, and when under cognitive load, participants with high financial literacy were as likely as their illiterate counterparts to choose the gambling option. This outcome is interpreted as evidence that financial literacy prevents intuitive risk-aversion reasoning only under highly favourable conditions, as is the case when no other task is competing for cognitive resources. In contrast, participants with higher levels of numeracy were consistently more prone to choose the gambling option in both experimental conditions. These results are discussed in the light of the opposition between classical dual-process theories and fuzzy-trace theories for intuitive decision making, suggesting that while some instances of expertise (as numeracy) are prone to support easily accessible gist representations, other expert skills (as financial literacy) depend upon deliberative processes. It is furthermore suggested that this dissociation between types of expert knowledge might depend on the degree to which they are generalizable across disparate settings. Finally, applied implications of the present study are discussed with a focus on how it informs financial regulators and the importance and limits of promoting financial literacy and general numeracy.

Keywords: decision making, cognitive load, financial literacy, numeracy

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Authors: O. Starineca, I. Voronchuk

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Human Resources (HR) selection and training have various implementation possibilities depending on an organization’s abilities and peculiarities. We propose to base HR selection and training decisions about on a competence-based approach. HR selection and training of employees are topical as there is room for improvement in this field; therefore, the aim of the research is to propose rational decision-making approaches for an organization HR selection and training choice. Our proposals are based on the training development and competence-based selection approaches created within previous researches i.e. Analytic-Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Linear Programming. Literature review on non-formal education, competence-based selection, AHP form our theoretical background. Some educational service providers in Latvia offer employees training, e.g. motivation, computer skills, accounting, law, ethics, stress management, etc. that are topical for Public Administration. Competence-based approach is a rational base for rational decision-making in both HR selection and considering HR training.

Keywords: competence-based selection, human resource, training, decision-making

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Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han, Seung Won Baek, Chan Young Park

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Natural gas (NG) is a local energy resource that exists in certain countries, and most NG producers operate within unstable governments. Moreover, about 90% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is governed by a small number of international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs), market entry of second movers is extremely limited. To overcome these barriers, project viability should be assessed based on limited information at the project screening perspective. However, there have been difficulties at the early stages of projects as follows: (1) What factors should be considered? (2) How many experts are needed to make a decision? and (3) How to make an optimal decision with limited information? To answer these questions, this research suggests a LNG project viability assessment model based on the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). Total of 11 indices for the gas field analysis and 23 indices for the market environment analysis are identified that reflect unique characteristics of LNG industry. Moreover, the proposed model evaluates LNG projects based on questionnaire survey and it provides not only quantified results but also uncertainty level of results based on DST. Consequently, the proposed model as a systematic framework can support the decision-making process from the gas field projects using quantitative results, and it is developed to a stand-alone system to enhance the practical usability. It is expected to improve the decision-making quality and opportunity in LNG projects for enterprise through informed decision.

Keywords: project viability, LNG project, enterprise information system, Dempster-Shafer Theory, strategic decision-making

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Authors: Xuan Linh Nguyen, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Feng Cheng Lin, Thanh Van Hoang, Yin Min Huang

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In Vietnam, land use planning is the most important and powerful tool of the government for sustainable land use and land management. Nevertheless, many of land use planning locations are facing protests from surrounding households due to environmental impacts. In addition, locations are planned completely based on the subjective decisions of planners who are unsupported by tools or scientific methods. Hence, this research aims to assist the decision-makers in evaluating the rationality of planning locations by developing a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) using approaches of Geographic Information System (GIS)-based technology, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multi-criteria-based technique and Fuzzy set theory. An ArcGIS Desktop add-ins named SDSS-LUPA was developed to support users analyzing data and presenting results in friendly format. The Fuzzy-AHP method has been utilized as analytic model for this SDSS. There are 18 planned locations in Hung Ha district (Thai Binh province, Vietnam) as a case study. The experimental results indicated that the assessment threshold higher than 0.65 while the 18 planned locations were irrational because of close to residential areas or close to water sources. Some potential sites were also proposed to the authorities for consideration of land use planning changes.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy set theory, land use planning, spatial decision support system

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Authors: Kishore K. Pochampally

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The success of a supply chain heavily relies on the efficiency of the suppliers involved. In this paper, we propose a neural network approach to evaluate the efficiency of a supplier, which is being considered for inclusion in a supply chain, using the available linguistic (fuzzy) data of suppliers that already exist in the supply chain. The approach is carried out in three phases, as follows: In phase one, we identify criteria for evaluation of the supplier of interest. Then, in phase two, we use performance measures of already existing suppliers to construct a neural network that gives weights (importance values) of criteria identified in phase one. Finally, in phase three, we calculate the overall rating of the supplier of interest. The following are the major findings of the research conducted for this paper: (i) linguistic (fuzzy) ratings of suppliers such as 'good', 'bad', etc., can be converted (defuzzified) to numerical ratings (1 – 10 scale) using fuzzy logic so that those ratings can be used for further quantitative analysis; (ii) it is possible to construct and train a multi-level neural network in order to determine the weights of the criteria that are used to evaluate a supplier; and (iii) Borda’s rule can be used to group the weighted ratings and calculate the overall efficiency of the supplier.

Keywords: fuzzy data, neural network, supplier, supply chain

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Authors: Trilok Mathur, Shivi Agarwal

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This paper deals with the solutions of fuzzy-fractional-order Riccati equations under Caputo-type fuzzy fractional derivatives. The Caputo-type fuzzy fractional derivatives are defined based on Hukuhura difference and strongly generalized fuzzy differentiability. The Laplace-Adomian-Pade method is used for solving fractional Riccati-type initial value differential equations of fractional order. Moreover, we also displayed some examples to illustrate our methods.

Keywords: Caputo-type fuzzy fractional derivative, Fractional Riccati differential equations, Laplace-Adomian-Pade method, Mittag Leffler function

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Authors: Vinay A. Sharma, Shiva Prasad H. C.

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The initial stages of any project are often observed to be in a mixed set of conditions. Setting up the project is a tough task, but taking the initial decisions is rather not complex, as some of the critical factors are yet to be introduced into the scenario. These simple initial decisions potentially shape the timeline and subsequent events that might later be plotted on it. Proceeding towards the solution for a problem is the primary objective in the initial stages. The optimization in the solutions can come later, and hence, the resources deployed towards attaining the solution are higher than what they would have been in the optimized versions. A ‘logic’ that counters the problem is essentially the core of the desired solution. Thus, if the problem is solved, the deployment of resources has led to the required logic being attained. As the project proceeds along, the individuals working on the project face fresh challenges as a team and are better accustomed to their surroundings. The developed, optimized solutions are then considered for implementation, as the individuals are now experienced, and know better of the consequences and causes of possible failure, and thus integrate the adequate tolerances wherever required. Furthermore, as the team graduates in terms of strength, acquires prodigious knowledge, and begins its efficient transfer, the individuals in charge of the project along with the managers focus more on the optimized solutions rather than the traditional ones to minimize the required resources. Hence, as time progresses, the authorities prioritize attainment of the required logic, at a lower amount of dedicated resources. For empirical analysis of the stated theory, leaders and key figures in organizations are surveyed for their ideas on appropriate logic required for tackling a problem. Key-pointers spotted in successfully implemented solutions are noted from the analysis of the responses and a metric for measuring logic is developed. A graph is plotted with the quantifiable logic on the Y-axis, and the dedicated resources for the solutions to various problems on the X-axis. The dedicated resources are plotted over time, and hence the X-axis is also a measure of time. In the initial stages of the project, the graph is rather linear, as the required logic will be attained, but the consumed resources are also high. With time, the authorities begin focusing on optimized solutions, since the logic attained through them is higher, but the resources deployed are comparatively lower. Hence, the difference between consecutive plotted ‘resources’ reduces and as a result, the slope of the graph gradually increases. On an overview, the graph takes a parabolic shape (beginning on the origin), as with each resource investment, ideally, the difference keeps on decreasing, and the logic attained through the solution keeps increasing. Even if the resource investment is higher, the managers and authorities, ideally make sure that the investment is being made on a proportionally high logic for a larger problem, that is, ideally the slope of the graph increases with the plotting of each point.

Keywords: decision-making, leadership, logic, strategic management

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Hassan Nouri, Seyed Reza Iranmanesh

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In the dynamic and complex landscape of today’s business, organizations often face challenges in impactful decision-making across multi-project settings. To efficiently allocate resources, coordinate tasks, and optimize project outcomes, establishing robust decision-making processes is essential. Furthermore, the increasing importance of information systems and their integration within organizational workflows introduces an additional layer of complexity. This research proposes the use of blockchain technology as a suitable solution to enhance decision-making in multi-project environments, particularly within the realm of information systems. The conceptual framework in this study comprises four independent variables and one dependent variable. The identified independent variables for the targeted research include: Blockchain Layer in Integrated Systems, Quality of Generated Information ,User Satisfaction with Integrated Systems and Utilization of Integrated Systems. The project’s performance, considered as the dependent variable and moderated by organizational policies and procedures, reflects the impact of blockchain technology adoption on organizational effectiveness1. The results highlight the significant influence of blockchain implementation on organizational performance.

Keywords: multi-project environments, decision support systems, information systems, blockchain technology, decentralized systems.

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Authors: Umar Sheikh Tahir

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Before al-Ghazālī, Islamic scholars perceived logic as an intrusive knowledge. The knowledge therefore, did not receive ample attention among scholars on how it should be adapted into Islamic sciences. General scholarship in that period rejects logic as an instrumental knowledge. This attitude became unquestionable to the scholars from different perspectives with diversification of suggestions in the pre-al-Ghazālī’s period. However, al-Ghazālī proclaimed with new perspective that transform Logic from ‘intrusive knowledge’ to a useful tool for Islamic sciences. This study explores the contributions of al-Ghazālī to epistemology regarding the use and the relevance of Logic. The study applies qualitative research methodology dealing strictly with secondary data from medieval age and contemporary sources. The study concludes that al-Ghazālī’s contributions which supported the transformation of Logic to useful tool in the Muslim world were drawn from his experience within Islamic tradition. He succeeded in reconciling Islamic tradition with the wisdom of Greek sciences.

Keywords: Al-Ghazālī, classical logic, epistemology, Islamdom and Islamic sciences

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Authors: Anat Keller

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Given that macro-prudential supervision is a relatively new policy area and its empirical and analytical research are still in their infancy, its theoretical foundations are also lagging behind. This paper contributes to the developing discussion on effective legal and institutional macroprudential supervision frameworks. In the first part of the paper, it is argued that effectiveness as a key benchmark poses some challenges in the context of macroprudential supervision such as the difficulty in proving causality between supervisory actions and the achievement of the supervisor’s mission. The paper suggests that effectiveness in the macroprudential context should, therefore, be assessed at the supervisory decision-making process (to be differentiated from the supervisory outcomes). The second part of the essay examines whether insights from behavioural economics can point to biases in the macroprudential decision-making process. These biases include, inter alia, preference bias, groupthink bias and inaction bias. It is argued that these biases are exacerbated in the multilateral setting of the macroprudential supervision framework in the EU. The paper then examines how legal and institutional frameworks should be designed to acknowledge and perhaps contain these identified biases. The paper suggests that the effectiveness of macroprudential policy will largely depend on the existence of clear and robust transparency and accountability arrangements. Accountability arrangements can be used as a vehicle for identifying and addressing potential biases in the macro-prudential framework, in particular, inaction bias. Inclusiveness of the public in the supervisory process in the form of transparency and awareness of the logic behind policy decisions may assist in minimising their potential unpopularity thus promoting their effectiveness. Furthermore, a governance structure which facilitates coordination of the macroprudential supervisor with other policymakers and incorporates outside perspectives and opinions could ‘break-down’ groupthink bias as well as inaction bias.

Keywords: behavioural economics and biases, effectiveness of macroprudential supervision, legal and institutional macroprudential frameworks, macroprudential decision-making process

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Authors: Riyadh Jamegh, AllaEldin Kassam, Sawsan Sabih

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In modern trends of market, organizations face high-pressure environment which is characterized by globalization, high competition, and customer orientation, so it is very crucial to control and know the weak and strong points of the supply chain in order to improve their performance. So the performance measurements presented as an important tool of supply chain management because it's enabled the organizations to control, understand, and improve their efficiency. This paper aims to identify supply chain performance measurement (SCPM) by using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (FAHP). In our real application, the performance of organizations estimated based on four parameters these are cost parameter indicator of cost (CPI), inventory turnover parameter indicator of (INPI), raw material parameter (RMPI), and safety stock level parameter indicator (SSPI), these indicators vary in impact on performance depending upon policies and strategies of organization. In this research (FAHP) technique has been used to identify the importance of such parameters, and then first fuzzy inference (FIR1) is applied to identify performance indicator of each factor depending on the importance of the factor and its value. Then, the second fuzzy inference (FIR2) also applied to integrate the effect of these indicators and identify (SCPM) which represent the required output. The developed approach provides an effective tool for evaluation of supply chain performance measurement.

Keywords: fuzzy performance measurements, supply chain, fuzzy logic, key performance indicator

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Authors: Rashmi Tamhankar, Madhav Bapat

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In many projects, we have to use human judgment for determining the duration of the activities which may vary from person to person. Hence, there is vagueness about the time duration for activities in network planning. Fuzzy sets can handle such vague or imprecise concepts and has an application to such network. The vague activity times can be represented by triangular fuzzy numbers. In this paper, a general network with fuzzy activity times is considered and conditions for the critical path are obtained also we compute total float time of each activity. Several numerical examples are discussed.

Keywords: PERT, CPM, triangular fuzzy numbers, fuzzy activity times

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Authors: Lavinia B. Dulla

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The exploration study of the fuzzy regression approach attempts to present that fuzzy regression can be used as a possible alternative to classical regression. It likewise seeks to assess the differences and characteristics of simple linear regression and fuzzy regression using the width of prediction interval, mean absolute deviation, and variance of residuals. Based on the simple linear regression model, the fuzzy regression approach is worth considering as an alternative to simple linear regression when the sample size is between 10 and 20. As the sample size increases, the fuzzy regression approach is not applicable to use since the assumption regarding large sample size is already operating within the framework of simple linear regression. Nonetheless, it can be suggested for a practical alternative when decisions often have to be made on the basis of small data.

Keywords: fuzzy regression approach, minimum fuzziness criterion, interval regression, prediction interval

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Authors: Kuanrong Qiu, Sebnem Madrali, Evgueniy Entchev

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To achieve the satisfactory objectives in deploying integrated renewable energy systems, it is crucial to consider all the related parameters affecting the design and decision-making. The multi-criteria evaluation method is a reliable and efficient tool for achieving the most appropriate solution. The approach considers the influential factors and their relative importance in prioritizing the alternatives. In this paper, a multi-criteria decision framework, based on the criteria including technical, economic, environmental and reliability, is developed to evaluate and prioritize renewable energy technologies and configurations of their integrated systems for community applications, identify their viability, and thus support the adoption of the clean energy technologies and the decision-making regarding energy transitions and transition patterns. Case studies for communities in Canada show that resource availability and the configurations of the integrated systems significantly impact the economic performance and environmental performance.

Keywords: multi-criteria, renewables, integrated energy systems, decision-making, model

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Authors: Rebecca Greenberg, Nipa Chauhan, Rashad Rehman

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Paternalism, in its traditional form, seems largely incompatible with Western medicine. In contrast, Family-Centred Care, a partial response to historically authoritative paternalism, carries its own challenges, particularly when operationalized as family-directed care. Specifically, in neonatology, decision-making is left entirely to Substitute Decision Makers (most commonly parents). Most models of shared decision-making employ both the parents’ and medical team’s perspectives but do not recognize the inherent asymmetry of information and experience – asking parents to act like physicians to evaluate technical data and encourage physicians to refrain from strong medical opinions and proposals. They also do not fully appreciate the difficulties in adjudicating which perspective to prioritize and, moreover, how to mitigate disagreement. Introducing a mild form of paternalism can harness the unique skillset both parents and clinicians bring to shared decision-making and ultimately work towards decision-making in the best interest of the child. The notion expressed here is that within the model of shared decision-making, mild paternalism is prioritized inasmuch as optimal care is prioritized. This mild form of paternalism is known as Beneficent Paternalism and justifies our encouragement for physicians to root down in their own medical expertise to propose treatment plans informed by medical expertise, standards of care, and the parents’ values. This does not mean that we forget that paternalism was historically justified on ‘beneficent’ grounds; however, our recommendation is that a re-integration of mild paternalism is appropriate within our current Western healthcare climate. Through illustrative examples from the NICU, this paper explores the appropriateness and merits of Beneficent Paternalism and ultimately its use in promoting family-centered care, patient’s best interests and reducing moral distress. A distinctive feature of the NICU is the fact that communication regarding a patient’s treatment is exclusively done with substitute decision-makers and not the patient, i.e., the neonate themselves. This leaves the burden of responsibility entirely on substitute decision-makers and the clinical team; the patient in the NICU does not have any prior wishes, values, or beliefs that can guide decision-making on their behalf. Therefore, the wishes, values, and beliefs of the parent become the map upon which clinical proposals are made, giving extra weight to the family’s decision-making responsibility. This leads to why Family Directed Care is common in the NICU, where shared decision-making is mandatory. However, the zone of parental discretion is not as all-encompassing as it is currently considered; there are appropriate times when the clinical team should strongly root down in medical expertise and perhaps take the lead in guiding family decision-making: this is just what it means to adopt Beneficent Paternalism.

Keywords: care, ethics, expertise, NICU, paternalism

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Authors: Mohammad Abdullah-Al-Wadud

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In the current era of automation and artificial intelligence, different systems have been increasingly keeping on depending on decision-making capabilities of machines. Such systems/applications may range from simple classifiers to sophisticated surveillance systems based on traditional sensors and related equipment which are becoming more common in the internet of things (IoT) paradigm. However, the available data for such problems are usually imprecise and incomplete, which leads to uncertainty in decisions made based on traditional probability-based classifiers. This requires a robust fusion framework to combine the available information sources with some degree of certainty. The theory of evidence can provide with such a method for combining evidence from different (may be unreliable) sources/observers. This talk will address the employment of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence in some practical applications.

Keywords: decision making, dempster-shafer theory, evidence fusion, incomplete data, uncertainty

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Authors: Peng Li, Chuanri Li, Tao Li

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Reliability allocation is quite important during early design and development stages for a system to apportion its specified reliability goal to subsystems. This paper improves the reliability fuzzy allocation method and gives concrete processes on determining the factor set, the factor weight set, judgment set, and multi-grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. To determine the weight of factor set, the modified trapezoidal numbers are proposed to reduce errors caused by subjective factors. To decrease the fuzziness in the fuzzy division, an approximation method based on linear programming is employed. To compute the explicit values of fuzzy numbers, centroid method of defuzzification is considered. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed reliability allocation method based on fuzzy arithmetic.

Keywords: reliability allocation, fuzzy arithmetic, allocation weight, linear programming

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Boris Djartov, Sanaz Mostaghim

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This paper presents a number-based dominance method. The main idea is how to fragment the many attributes of the problem into subsets suitable for the well-established concept of Pareto dominance. Although other similar methods can be found in the literature, they focus on comparing the solutions one objective at a time, while the focus of this method is to compare entire subsets of the objective vector. Given the nature of the method, it is computationally costlier than other methods and thus, it is geared more towards selecting an option from a finite set of alternatives, where each solution is defined by multiple objectives. The need for this method was motivated by dynamic alternate airport selection (DAAS). In DAAS, pilots, while en route to their destination, can find themselves in a situation where they need to select a new landing airport. In such a predicament, they need to consider multiple alternatives with many different characteristics, such as wind conditions, available landing distance, the fuel needed to reach it, etc. Hence, this method is primarily aimed at human decision-makers. Many methods within the field of multi-objective and many-objective decision-making rely on the decision maker to initially provide the algorithm with preference points and weight vectors; however, this method aims to omit this very difficult step, especially when the number of objectives is so large. The proposed method will be compared to Favour (1 − k)-Dom and L-dominance (LD) methods. The test will be conducted using well-established test problems from the literature, such as the DTLZ problems. The proposed method is expected to outperform the currently available methods in the literature and hopefully provide future decision-makers and pilots with support when dealing with many-objective optimization problems.

Keywords: multi-objective decision-making, many-objective decision-making, multi-objective optimization, many-objective optimization

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Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

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One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: rough set theory, attribute reduction, fuzzy logic, memetic algorithms, record to record algorithm, great deluge algorithm

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Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Yun-Han Yeh

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A 40 steps manual adjusting shock absorber was refitted with DC motor driving mechanism to construct as a semi-active suspension system for a four-wheel drive electric vehicle. Accelerometer and potentiometer sensors are installed to measure the sprung mass acceleration and suspension system compression or rebound states for control purpose. A fuzzy logic controller was designed to derive appropriate damping target based on vehicle running condition for semi-active suspension system to follow. The damping ratio control of each wheel axis suspension system is executed with a robust fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC). Different road surface conditions are chosen to evaluate the control performance of this semi-active suspension system based on wheel axis acceleration signal.

Keywords: semi-active suspension, electric vehicle, fuzzy sliding mode control, accelerometer

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming

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Authors: Mohsen Akhlaghi, Tahereh Ebrahimi

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Considering the increasing demand for water and limited resources, there is a possibility of a water crisis in the not-so-distant future. Therefore, to prevent this crisis, other options for drinking water supply should be examined. In this regard, the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in various aspects of water resource management and planning has always been of great interest to researchers. In this report, six options for supplying drinking water to Tehran City were considered. Then, experts' opinions were collected through matrices and questionnaires, and using the TOPSIS method, which is one of the types of multi-criteria decision-making methods, they were calculated and analyzed. In the TOPSIS method, the options were ranked by calculating their proximity to the ideal (Ci). The closer the numerical value of Ci is to one, the more desirable the option is. Based on this, the option with the optimization pattern of water consumption, with Ci = 0.9787, is the best option among the proposed options for supplying drinking water to Tehran City. The other options, in order of priority, are rainwater harvesting, wastewater reuse, increasing current water supply sources, desalination and its transfer, and transferring water from freshwater sources between basins. In conclusion, the findings of this study highlight the importance of exploring alternative drinking water supply options and utilizing multi-criteria decision-making approaches to address the potential water crisis.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision, sustainable development, topsis, water supply

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Authors: Saad Saeed Althiabi

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There is great progress in formulating and executing legislative policies in GCC, however, the public participation in formulating and in major decision making still remains weak. Drawing attention on the international law of public participation in construction and natural resource management, this paper aims in creating a feasible legislative framework for extensive public participation in the industries such as construction and oil and gas decision-making that GCC can implement. This paper would address the conflicts associated with the management and creation of legislation and ensuring public participation for the creation of a practical framework. A feasible legislative framework must take into account the various factors that shape the effectiveness of participation and the elements that promote the objectives of participation. It is premised on the ground that viewing to international prescriptions might help to reveal gaps in domestic laws, as well as alternatives to overcome them.

Keywords: legislative policies, public participation, planning legislation, GCC countries, international law

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Authors: Mostafa Mjahed

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Tilt Rotor UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are naturally unstable and difficult to maneuver. The purpose of this paper is to design controllers for the stabilization and trajectory tracking of this type of UAV. To this end, artificial intelligence methods have been exploited. First, the dynamics of this UAV was modeled using the Lagrange-Euler method. The conventional method based on Proportional, Integral and Derivative (PID) control was applied by decoupling the different flight modes. To improve stability and trajectory tracking of the Tilt Rotor, the fuzzy approach and the technique of multilayer neural networks (NN) has been used. Thus, Fuzzy Proportional Integral and Derivative (FPID) and Neural Network-based Proportional Integral and Derivative controllers (NNPID) have been developed. The meta-heuristic approach based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method allowed adjusting the setting parameters of NNPID controller, giving us an improved NNPID-PSO controller. Simulation results under the Matlab environment show the efficiency of the approaches adopted. Besides, the Tilt Rotor UAV has become stable and follows different types of trajectories with acceptable precision. The Fuzzy, NN and NN-PSO-based approaches demonstrated their robustness because the presence of the disturbances did not alter the stability or the trajectory tracking of the Tilt Rotor UAV.

Keywords: neural network, fuzzy logic, PSO, PID, trajectory tracking, tilt-rotor UAV

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Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, scenarios

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Authors: Azizah Ismail, Zainab Khalifah, Abbas Mardani

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Sustainable community-based tourism through homestay programme is a growing niche market that has impacted destinations in many countries including Malaysia. With demand predicted to continue increasing, the importance of the homestay product will grow in the tourism industry. This research examines the sustainability criteria for homestay programme in Malaysia covering economic, socio-cultural and environmental dimensions. This research applied a two-stage methodology for data analysis. Specifically, the researcher implements a hybrid method which combines two multi-criteria decision making approaches. In the first stage of the methodology, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique is applied. Then, Analytical Network Process (ANP) is employed for the achievement of the objective of the current research. After factors identification and problem formulation, DEMATEL is used to detect complex relationships and to build a Network Relation Map (NRM). Then ANP is used to prioritize and find the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria of the decision model. The research verifies the framework of multi-criteria for sustainable community-based tourism from the perspective of stakeholders. The result also provides a different perspective on the importance of sustainable criteria from the view of multi-stakeholders. Practically, this research gives the framework model and helps stakeholders to improve and innovate the homestay programme and also promote community-based tourism.

Keywords: community-based tourism, homestay programme, sustainable tourism criteria, sustainable tourism development

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Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Mohsen Sadegh Amalnick

Abstract:

Different terms of the statistical process control (SPC) has sketch in the fuzzy environment. However, measurement system analysis (MSA), as a main branch of the SPC, is rarely investigated in fuzzy area. This procedure assesses the suitability of the data to be used in later stages or decisions of the SPC. Therefore, this research focuses on some important measures of MSA and through a new method introduces the measures in fuzzy environment. In this method, which works based on Buckley approach, imprecision and vagueness nature of the real world measurement are considered simultaneously. To do so, fuzzy version of the gauge capability (Cg and Cgk) are introduced. The method is also explained through example clearly.

Keywords: measurement, SPC, MSA, gauge capability (Cg and Cgk)

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Authors: Christina Zourna, Ioanna Papavassiliou-Alexiou

Abstract:

The purpose of this multi-phased action research PhD study in Greece was to investigate if and how Drama in Education (DiE) – used as an innovative group counselling method – may have positive effects on secondary education students’career self-efficacy and career decision-making skills development. Using both quantitative and qualitative research tools, high quality data were gathered at various stages of the research and were analysed through multivariate methods and open-source computer aided data analysis software such as R Studio, QualCoder, and SPSS packages. After a five-month-long educational intervention based on DiE method, it was found that 9th, 10th, and 11th gradersameliorated their self-efficacy and learned the process of making an informed career decision – through targeted information gathering about themselves and possible study paths – thus, developing career problem-solving and career management skills. Gender differences were non statistically important, while differences in grades showed a minor influence on some of the measured factorssuch as general career indecisiveness and self-evaluation. Students in the 11th grade scored significantly higher than younger students in the career self-efficacy scale and have stronger faith in their abilities e.g., choosing general over vocational school and major study orientation. The study has shown that DiE can be effective in group career guidance, especially concerning the pillars of self-awareness, self-efficacy, and career decision-making processes.

Keywords: career decision-making skills, career self-efficacy, CDDQ scale, CDMSE-SF scale, drama in education method

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

Abstract:

Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 43