Search results for: flood prevention plan

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Shaikh, Song Weiguo, Muhammad Kashan Surahio, Usman Shahid, Rehmat Karim

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When the area of a structure that is threatened by a disaster affects personal safety, the effectiveness of disaster prevention, evacuation, and rescue operations can be summarized by three assessment indicators: personal safety, property preservation, and attribution of responsibility. These indicators are applicable regardless of the disaster that affects the building. People need to get out of the hazardous area and to a safe place as soon as possible because there's no other way to respond. The results of the tragedy are thus closely related to how quickly people are advised to evacuate and how quickly they are rescued. This study considers present fire prevention systems to address catastrophes and improve building safety. It proposes the methods of Prevention Level for Deployment in Advance and Spatial Transformation by Human-Machine Collaboration. We present and prototype a real-time fire protection system architecture for building disaster prevention, evacuation, and rescue operations. The design encourages the use of simulations to check the efficacy of evacuation, rescue, and disaster prevention procedures throughout the planning and design phase of the structure.

Keywords: prevention level, building information modeling, quality management system, simulated reality

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Authors: Pravira Rizki Suwarno, Fanny Aliza Savitri, Priseyola Ayunda Prima, Pipin Surahman, Mahelga Levina Amran, Khoirunisa Ulya Nur Utari, Nora Permatasari

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The Bogowonto River or commonly called the Bhagawanta River, is one of the rivers on Java Island. It is located in Central Java, Indonesia. Its watershed area is 35 km² with 57 km long. This river covers three regencies, namely Wonosobo Regency and Magelang Regency in the upstream and Purworejo Regency in the south and downstream. The Bogowonto River experiences channel narrowing and silting. It is caused by garbage along the river that comes from livestock and household waste. The narrowing channel and siltation cause a capacity reduction of the river to drain flood discharge. Comprehensive and sustainable actions are needed in dealing with current and future floods. Based on these current conditions, a priority scale is required. Therefore, this study aims to determine the priority scale of flood management in Purworejo Regency using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This method will determine the appropriate actions based on the rating. In addition, there will be field observations through distributing questionnaires to several parties, including the stakeholders and the community. The results of this study will be in 2 (two) forms of actions, both structurally covering water structures and non-structural, including social, environmental, and law enforcement.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, bogowonto, flood control, management

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi, Mahmoud I. Syam, Sarah Aw

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In Summer 2012, the Foundation Program Unit of Qatar University has started implementing new ways of teaching Math by introducing MML (MyMathLab) as an innovative interactive tool to support standard teaching. In this paper, we focused on the effect of proper use of the Study Plan component of MML on student’s performance. Authors investigated the results of students of pre-calculus course during Fall 2013 in Foundation Program at Qatar University. The results showed that there is a strong correlation between study plan results and final exam results, also a strong relation between homework results and final exam results. In addition, the attendance average affected on the student’s results in general. Multiple regression is determined between passing rate dependent variable and study plan, homework as independent variable.

Keywords: MyMathLab, study plan, assessment, homework, attendance, correlation, regression

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Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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Authors: Braimah Joseph Odunayo, Jiju Gillariose

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This paper is aimed at developing a sampling plan that uses information from precedent and successive lots for lot disposition with a pretention that the life-time of a particular product assumes a Log-logistic distribution. A Two-pronged Truncated Deferred Sampling Plan (TTDSP) for Log-logistic distribution is proposed when the testing is truncated at a precise time. The best possible sample sizes are obtained under a given Maximum Allowable Percent Defective (MAPD), Test Suspension Ratios (TSR), and acceptance numbers (c). A formula for calculating the operating characteristics of the proposed plan is also developed. The operating characteristics and mean-ratio values were used to measure the performance of the plan. The findings of the study show that: Log-logistic distribution has a decreasing failure rate; furthermore, as mean-life ratio increase, the failure rate reduces; the sample size increase as the acceptance number, test suspension ratios and maximum allowable percent defective increases. The study concludes that the minimum sample sizes were smaller, which makes the plan a more economical plan to adopt when cost and time of production are costly and the experiment being destructive.

Keywords: consumers risk, mean life, minimum sample size, operating characteristics, producers risk

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Authors: Alexander Glebovskiy

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Practitioners charged with fraud prevention and investigation strongly rely on the Fraud Triangle framework developed by Joseph T. Wells in 1997 while analyzing the causes of fraud at business organizations. The Fraud Triangle model explains fraud by elements such as pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. This view is not fully suitable for effective fraud prevention as the Fraud Triangle model provides limited insight into the causation of fraud. Fraud is a multifaceted phenomenon, the contextual factors of which may not fit into any framework. Employee criminal behavior in business organizations is influenced by environmental, individual, and organizational aspects. Therefore, further criminogenic factors and processes facilitating fraud in organizational settings need to be considered in the root-cause analysis: organizational culture, leadership style, groupthink effect, isomorphic behavior, crime of obedience, displacement of responsibility, lack of critical thinking and unquestioning conformity and loyalty.

Keywords: criminogenesis, fraud triangle, fraud prevention, organizational culture

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Authors: Helen S. Ghali, Haidy S. Ghali, Salma Ibrahim, Ossama Hosny, Hatem S. Elbehairy

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Infrastructure systems are essential assets in any community; accordingly, authorities aim to maximize its life span while minimizing the life cycle cost. This requires studying the asset conditions throughout its operation and forming a cost-efficient maintenance strategy plan. The objective of this study is to develop a highway management system that provides medium-term maintenance plans with the minimum life cycle cost subject to budget constraints. The model is applied to data collected for the highway network in India with the aim to output a 5-year maintenance plan strategy from 2019 till 2023. The main element considered is the surface coarse, either rigid or flexible pavement. The model outputs a 5-year maintenance plan for each segment given the budget constraint while maximizing the new pavement condition rating and minimizing its life cycle cost.

Keywords: infrastructure, asset management, optimization, maintenance plan

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Rapid urbanization, rising population, changing lifestyles and in-migration, Lucknow is groundwater over-exploited area, with an abstract rate of 1968 m3/day/km2 in Gomti Nagar. The groundwater situation in Gomti Nagar is deteriorating day-by-day. According to the work, the calculated annual water deficiency in Gomti Nagar area will be 28061 Million Litre (ML) in 2022. Within 30 yrs., the water deficiency will be 735570 ML (till 2051). The calculated groundwater recharge in Gomti Nagar was 10813 ML/y (in 2022). The annual groundwater abstraction from Gomti Nagar area was 35332 ML/yr. (in 2022). Bye-laws (≥ 300 sq.m) existing RTRWHs can recharge 17.71 ML/yr. in Gomti Nagar area. The existing RTRWHs are contributing 0.07% for recharging groundwater table. In Gomti Nagar, the water level is dropping at a rate of 1.0 metre per year, and the depth of the water table is less than 30 metre below ground level (mbgl). Natural groundwater recharge is affected by the geomorphological conditions of the surrounding area. Gomti Nagar is located on the erosional terrace (Te) and depositional terrace (d) of the Gomti River. The flood plain in Lucknow city is less active due to the embankments on the both sides of the Gomti River. The alluvium is composed of clay sandy up to a depth of 30m, and the alignment of the Gomti River reveals the presence of sandy soil at shallow depths. Aquifer depth 120 metre. Recharge as in Gomti Nagar (it may vary) 0 – 150 metre. Infiltration rates in alluvial floodplains range from 0.8 to 74 cm/hr. Geologically and Geomorphologically support rapid percolation of rainwater through alluvium in Gomti Nagar, Lucknow city, Uttar Pradesh. Over-exploitation of groundwater causes natural hazards viz. land subsidence, development of cracks on roads and buildings, development of vacuum and compactness of soil/clay which leads towards land subsidence, devastating effects on natural stream flow. Gomti River already transitioning phase from ‘effluent’ to ‘influent’, and saline intrusion in Aquifer –II (among Five aquifers in Lucknow city). A 250 m long crack developed in 2007 due to groundwater depletion in Dullu Khera and Vader Khera village of Kakori, Uttar Pradesh. The groundwater table of Lucknow is declining and water table imbalance occurs due to 17 times less recharge than groundwater exploitation. Uttar Pradesh along with four states have extracted 49% of groundwater in the entire country. In Gomti Nagar area, 27305 no of houses are present and available build up area 3.8 sq. km (60% of plot area) based on Lucknow Development Authority (LDA) Master plan 2031. If RTRWHs would install in all the houses, then 12% harvested rainwater contribute to the water table in Gomti Nagar area. Till 2051, Gomti Nagar area will harvest 91110 ML of rainwater. There are minimalistic chances that any incidence of flood can occur due to RTRWH. Thus, it can conclud that RTRWH is not related to flood happening in urban areas viz. Gomti Nagar.

Keywords: RTRWH, aquifer, groundwater table, rainwater, infiltration

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Jayant Balaji Athavale, Sean Clarke

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Background: According to the WHO, every year, more than 700,000 people die by suicide, which is one person around every 45 seconds. Suicide is the fourth leading cause of death among 15 to 29-year-olds globally. The most common situations or life events that might cause suicidal thoughts are financial problems/unemployment, rejections, relationship breakups, sexual/substance abuse and mental illnesses. Mental/psychological weakness caused due to defects in one’s personality is one of the main reasons why people feel they cannot cope in such situations and contemplate suicide. A WHO Mental Health Action Plan 2013–2020 lists a 4-point strategy to enhance mental health by ‘implementing strategies for promotion and prevention in mental health.’ Methodology: With 40 years of spiritual research background, the team at the Maharshi University of Spirituality has studied the spiritual root causes that can significantly affect one’s mental health and the solutions to improve it. Results/Findings: According to spiritual science, the time and nature of death are mostly due to spiritual reasons. A person would mostly contemplate and attempt suicide when he is spiritually most vulnerable. Spiritual practice, as per universal principles, helps in protecting a person spiritually and prevents him from getting such thoughts of self-harm or acting upon them by controlling such impulses. The University has had much success in helping people to overcome the defects in their personalities, including those with suicidal thoughts, through spiritual practices such as chanting the Name of God and the Personality Defect Removal (PDR) process developed by the Author. Conclusion: If such techniques were taught in educational institutions, they could be simple yet effective self-help tools to prevent thoughts of suicide and enhance mental health and well-being.

Keywords: suicide, mental health, abuse, suicide prevention, personality defect removal

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Authors: Karim Ahmed

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The purpose of this study was to investigate how factoring the impact of natural disasters beyond flooding would affect managed retreat policy eligibility in the United States. For the study design, a correlation analysis method compared weighted measures of flooding and other natural disasters (e.g., wildfires, tornadoes, heatwaves, etc.) to CBSA Populated areas, the prevalence of cropland, and relative poverty on a county level. The study found that the vast majority of CBSAs eligible for managed retreat programs under a policy inclusive of non-flooding events would have already been covered by flood-only managed retreat policies. However, it is noteworthy that a majority of those counties that are not covered by a flood-only managed retreat policy have high rates of poverty and are either heavily populated and/or agriculturally active. The correlation is particularly strong between counties that are subject to multiple natural hazards and those that have both high rates of relative poverty and cropland prevalence. There is currently no managed retreat policy for agricultural land in the United States despite the environmental implications and food supply chain vulnerabilities related to at-risk cropland. The findings of this study suggest both that such a policy should be created and, when it is, that special attention should be paid to non-flood natural disasters affecting agricultural areas. These findings also reveal that, while current flood-based policies in the United States serve many areas that do need access to managed retreat funding and implementation, other vulnerable areas are overlooked by this approach. These areas are often deeply impoverished and are therefore particularly vulnerable to natural disaster; if and when those disasters do occur, these areas are often less financially prepared to recover or retreat from the disaster’s advance and, due to the limitations of the current policies discussed above, are less able to take the precautionary measures necessary to mitigate their risk.

Keywords: flood, hazard, land use, managed retreat, wildfire

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Authors: Heather Caldwell

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In 1915, state superintendent, Mary C.C. Bradford initiated a state standardization plan in order to improve the quality of schools and the educational experience for all children in Colorado. This plan would change the schools, improving them and offering more opportunities for children, teachers, and the community. In a state where geography limited opportunity to make all schools equal and brought challenges to state school leaders to improve education throughout the state, the leadership prevailed and worked together with local schools and school leaders to make drastic improvements in the curriculum. This paper will discuss this plan and will highlight key contributions to this standardization plan that improved opportunities for all students in the state of Colorado through these educational initiatives.

Keywords: history of education, standardization, curriculum, state superintendent, women in education

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Authors: Bin Su

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The draft Auckland Unitary Plan outlines the future land used for new housing and businesses with Auckland population growth over the next thirty years. According to Auckland Unitary Plan, over the next 30 years, the population of Auckland is projected to increase by one million, and up to 70% of total new dwellings occur within the existing urban area. Intensification will not only increase the number of median or higher density houses such as terrace house, apartment building, etc. within the existing urban area but also change mean housing design data that can impact building thermal performance under the local climate. Based on mean energy consumption and building design data, and their relationships of a number of Auckland sample houses, this study is to estimate the future mean housing energy consumption associated with the change of mean housing design data and evaluate housing energy efficiency with the Auckland Unitary Plan.

Keywords: Auckland Unitary Plan, building thermal design, housing design, housing energy efficiency

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Authors: S. Hameed, S. Anwer, M. Saad, M. Saady

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For autonomic recovery with server virtualization, a cogent plan that includes recovery techniques and backups with virtualized servers can be developed instead of assigning an idle server to backup operations. In addition to hardware cost reduction and data center trail, the disaster recovery plan can ensure system uptime and to meet objectives of high availability, recovery time, recovery point, server provisioning, and quality of services. This autonomic solution would also support disaster management, testing, and development of the recovery site. In this research, a workflow plan is proposed for supporting disaster recovery with virtualization providing virtual monitoring, requirements engineering, solution decision making, quality testing, and disaster management. This recovery model would make disaster recovery a lot easier, faster, and less error prone.

Keywords: autonomous intelligence, disaster recovery, cloud computing, server virtualization

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Authors: Albert Suryaprawira

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The Nasion-Sella Line (NSL) has been used for several years as a reference line in longitudinal growth study. Therefore this line is considered to be stable not only to evaluate treatment outcome and to predict relapse possibility but also to manage prognosis. This is a radiographic superimposition of an adult male aged 19 years who complained of difficulty in aesthetic, talking and chewing. Patient has a midface hypoplasia profile (concave). He was diagnosed to have a severe Skeletal Class III with Class III malocclusion, increased lower vertical height, and an anterior open bite. A pre-treatment cephalometric radiograph was taken to analyse the skeletal problem and to measure the amount of bone movement and the prediction soft tissue response. A panoramic radiograph was also taken to analyse bone quality, bone abnormality, third molar impaction, etc. Before the surgery, a pre-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to re-evaluate the plan and to settle the final amount of bone cut. After the surgery, a post-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to confirm the result with the plan. The superimposition using NSL as a reference line between those radiographs was performed to analyse the outcome. It is important to describe the amount of hard and soft tissue movement and to predict the possibility of relapse after the surgery. The patient also needs to understand all the surgical plan, outcome and relapse prevention. The surgical management included maxillary impaction and advancement of Le Fort I osteotomy. The evaluation using NSL as a reference was a very useful method in determining the outcome and prognosis.

Keywords: Nasion-Sella Line, midface hypoplasia, Le Fort 1, maxillary advancement

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Authors: Alireza Abbassi Monjezi, Mohammad Hasan Shaheed

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Flood, caused by excessive rainfall, monsoon, cyclone and tsunami is a common disaster in many countries of the world especially sea connected low-lying countries. A stand-alone self-powered water filtration module for decontamination of floodwater has been designed and modeled. A combination forward osmosis – low pressure reverse osmosis (FO-LPRO) system powered by solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) energy is investigated which could overcome the main barriers to water supply for remote areas and ensure off-grid filtration. The proposed system is designed to be small scale and portable to provide on-site potable water to communities that are no longer themselves mobile nor can be reached quickly by the aid agencies. FO is an osmotically driven process that uses osmotic pressure gradients to drive water across a controlled pore membrane from a feed solution (low osmotic pressure) to a draw solution (high osmotic pressure). This drops the demand for high hydraulic pressures and therefore the energy demand. There is also a tendency for lower fouling, easier fouling layer removal and higher water recovery. In addition, the efficiency of the PVT unit will be maximized through freshwater cooling which is integrated into the system. A filtration module with the capacity of 5 m3/day is modeled to treat floodwater and provide drinking water. The module can be used as a tool for disaster relief, particularly in the aftermath of flood and tsunami events.

Keywords: flood resilience, membrane desalination, portable water treatment, solar energy

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Authors: Muhammad L. A. Dwiyoga

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The condition of a spatial land in the industrial park needs special attention to be studied more deeply. Geoplanology modeling can help arrange area according to his ability. This research method is to perform the analysis of remote sensing, Geographic Information System, and more comprehensive analysis to determine geological characteristics and the ability to land on the area of research and its relation to the geological disaster. Cilegon is part of Banten province located in western Java, and the direction of the north is the Strait of Borneo. While the southern part is bordering the Indian Ocean. Morphology study area is located in the highlands to low. In the highlands of identified potential landslide prone, whereas in low-lying areas of potential flooding. Moreover, in the study area has the potential prone to earthquakes, this is due to the proximity of enough research to Mount Krakatau and Subdcution Zone. From the results of this study show that the study area has a susceptibility to landslides located around the District Waringinkurung. While the region as a potential flood areas in the District of Cilegon and surrounding areas. Based on the seismic data, this area includes zones with a range of magnitude 1.5 to 5.5 magnitude at a depth of 1 to 60 Km. As for the ability of its territory, based on the analyzes and studies carried out the need for renewal of the map Spatial Plan that has been made, considering the development of a fairly rapid Cilegon area.

Keywords: geoplanology, spatial plan, geological hazard, cilegon, Indonesia

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Authors: Fahem Belkacemi, Lyes Ouali

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Maintenance strategies and assessments continue to be a major concern for companies today. The socio-economic bets of their competitiveness are closely linked to the activities and quality of maintenance. This work deals with a study of a preventive maintenance plan to improve the availability of the production line within SAMSUNG HOME APPLIANCE “SAMHA”, Setif, Algeria. First, we applied the method of analysis of failure modes, their impact, and criticality to reduce downtime and identification of the most critical elements. Finally, to improve the availability of the production line, we carried out a study of the current preventive maintenance plan in the production line workshop at the company level and according to the history sheet of machine failures. We proposed a preventive maintenance plan to improve the availability of the production line.

Keywords: preventive maintenance, DRUM line, AMDEC, availability

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Authors: Sitarrine Thongpussawal, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Thanaroj Woraratprasert, Sakawtree Prajamwong

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Thailand grapples with recurrent floods causing substantial repercussions on its economy, society, and environment. In 2021, the economic toll of these floods amounted to an estimated 53,282 million baht, primarily impacting the agricultural sector. The existing flood monitoring system in Thailand suffers from inaccuracies and insufficient information, resulting in delayed warnings and ineffective communication to the public. The Office of the National Water Resources (OWNR) is tasked with developing and integrating data and information systems for efficient water resources management, yet faces challenges in monitoring accuracy, forecasting, and timely warnings. This study endeavors to evaluate the viability of enhancing Thailand's Flood Forecasting and Warning (FFW) systems. Additionally, it aims to formulate a comprehensive work package grounded in international best practices to enhance the country's FFW systems. Employing qualitative research methodologies, the study conducted in-depth interviews and focus groups with pertinent agencies. Data analysis involved techniques like note-taking and document analysis. The study substantiates the feasibility of developing and enhancing FFW systems in Thailand. Implementation of international best practices can augment the precision of flood forecasting and warning systems, empowering local agencies and residents in high-risk areas to prepare proactively, thereby minimizing the adverse impact of floods on lives and property. This research underscores that Thailand can feasibly advance its FFW systems by adopting international best practices, enhancing accuracy, and improving preparedness. Consequently, the study enriches the theoretical understanding of flood forecasting and warning systems and furnishes valuable recommendations for their enhancement in Thailand.

Keywords: flooding, forecasting, warning, monitoring, communication, Thailand

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Authors: Vasileiou Apostolos, Theodosiou Chrysa, Tsitroulis Ioannis, Maris Fotios

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The severity of extreme phenomena is due to their ability to cause severe damage in a small amount of time. It has been observed that floods affect the greatest number of people and induce the biggest damage when compared to the total of annual natural disasters. The detection of potential flood-prone areas constitutes one of the fundamental components of the European Natural Disaster Management Policy, directly connected to the European Directive 2007/60. The aim of the present paper is to develop a new methodology that combines geographical information, fuzzy logic and multi-criteria evaluation methods so that the most vulnerable areas are defined. Therefore, ten factors related to geophysical, morphological, climatological/meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the basin were selected. Afterwards, two models were created to detect the areas pronest to flooding. The first model defined the gravitas of each factor using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the final map of possible flood spots were created using GIS and Boolean Algebra. The second model made use of the fuzzy logic and GIS combination and a respective map was created. The application area of the aforementioned methodologies was in Ardas basin due to the frequent and important floods that have taken place these last years. Then, the results were compared to the already observed floods. The result analysis shows that both models can detect with great precision possible flood spots. As the fuzzy logic model is less time-consuming, it is considered the ideal model to apply to other areas. The said results are capable of contributing to the delineation of high risk areas and to the creation of successful management plans dealing with floods.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, flood prone areas, fuzzy logic, geographic information system

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Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

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Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

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Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

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Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

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Authors: A. D. Abdellatif, A. N. Ahmed, M. E. Abdelaziz

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The main purpose of this paper is to design a double acceptance sampling plan under the time truncated life test when the product lifetime follows an exponentiated transmuted Weibull distribution. Here, the motive is to meet both the consumer’s risk and producer’s risk simultaneously at the specified quality levels, while the termination time is specified. A comparison between the results of the double and single acceptance sampling plans is conducted. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to real data sets.

Keywords: double sampling plan, single sampling plan, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution, time truncated experiment, single, double, Marshal-Olkin

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Authors: Susanna Pho

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With the rise in frequency of high impact flooding events and continued growth across the state, communities in Florida are increasingly turning to innovative higher regulatory standards to keep residents safe. Using models and maps that take future conditions into account can help coastal communities at high risk of flooding adapt, but the associated responsibilities of enforcing and educating stakeholders about floodplain management can be a barrier to adoption. This is especially true in communities that are already managing multiple maps, as adding more regulatory mapping may overwhelm resource-constrained building departments. Without effective workflow solutions, even small tasks like communicating regulations to residents or determining the most restrictive mapping for a permit application can become challenging when dealing with complex maps. Using the case study of Forerunner’s work with a partner community, this session will outline how the community combines technology with robust outreach strategies to boost resident communication. We’ll discuss how software like Forerunner can help communities pull together disparate datasets and mobilize information for property-specific outreach to provide smarter resources to a variety of stakeholders. it’ll explore how incorporating digital workflows into outreach can ensure faster response time, better compliance enforcement, and stronger data continuity. The presentation will also include suggestions on how other communities might be able to leverage data to strengthen their floodplain management programs.

Keywords: floodplain management, flood response, flood risk adaptation, flood protection - products and processes, flood risk assessment and recovery, innovative approaches

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

Abstract:

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Wadsana Sarakarn, Pimonpan Charoensri, Baliya Chaiyara

Abstract:

Objectives: To study the outcomes of the developed nursing model to prevent early postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). Materials and Methods: The analytical study was conducted in Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital during October 1st, 2015, until May 31st, 2017. After review the prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes of postpartum hemorrhage of the parturient who gave birth in Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital, the nursing model was developed under research regulation of Kemmis&McTaggart using 4 steps of operating procedures: 1) analyzing problem situation and gathering 2) creating the plan 3) noticing and performing 4) reflecting the result of the operation. The nursing model consisted of the screening tools for risk factors associated with PPH, the clinical nursing practice guideline (CNPG), and the collecting bag for measuring postpartum blood loss. Primary outcome was early postpartum hemorrhage. Secondary outcomes were postpartum hysterectomy, maternal mortality, personnel’s practice, knowledge, and satisfaction of the nursing model. The data were analyzed by using content analysis for qualitative data and descriptive statistics for quantitative data. Results: Before using the nursing model, the prevalence of early postpartum hemorrhage was under estimated (2.97%). There were 5 cases of postpartum hysterectomy and 2 cases of maternal death due to postpartum hemorrhage. During the study period, there was 22.7% prevalence of postpartum hemorrhage among 220 pregnant women who were vaginally delivered at Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital. No maternal death or postpartum hysterectomy was reported after using the nursing model. Among 16 registered nurses at the delivery room who evaluated using of the nursing model, they reported the high level of practice, knowledge, and satisfaction Conclusion: The nursing model for the prevention of early PPH is effective to decrease early PPH and other serious complications.

Keywords: the development of a nursing model, prevention of postpartum hemorrhage, pregnant women, postpartum hemorrhage

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Authors: C. Li, G. Coates, N. Johnson, M. Mc Guinness

Abstract:

In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding. This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.

Keywords: ABM, flood response, SMEs, business continuity

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Authors: Birgit Reime, Sonja Gscheidle, Toni Hübener, Lara Hübener

Abstract:

Suicide in individuals under 30 years is a global public health concern. The objective of this study was to identify strategies for the prevention of suicide and suicidal behavior preferred by adolescents and young adults who are vulnerable to suicidal behavior and by relevant experts. Using semi-structured interviews with n= 17 adolescents and young adults (18-25 years of age) and with n= 11 experts from relevant fields, we have applied an inductive approach and applied thematic content analysis. Six strategies for suicide prevention in young individuals were reported. These were digital solutions with appealing designs, anonymous support, trained peer support, spiritual support, improving existing structures, and raising suicide literacy. Accessibility of anonymous digital support may contribute to suicide prevention in young people.

Keywords: suicide prevention, adolescents, E-health, Germany

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Authors: Seongjun Kim, Jinwooung Kim, Sung-Ah Kim

Abstract:

The development of information and communication technology also affects human cognition and thinking, especially in the field of design, new techniques are being tried. In architecture, new design methodologies such as machine learning or data-driven design are being applied. In particular, these methodologies are used in analyzing the factors related to the value of real estate or analyzing the feasibility in the early planning stage of the apartment housing. However, since the value of apartment buildings is often determined by external factors such as location and traffic conditions, rather than the interior elements of buildings, data is rarely used in the design process. Therefore, although the technical conditions are provided, the internal elements of the apartment are difficult to apply the data-driven design in the design process of the apartment. As a result, the designers of apartment housing were forced to rely on designer experience or modular design alternatives rather than data-driven design at the design stage, resulting in a uniform arrangement of space in the apartment house. The purpose of this study is to propose a methodology to support the designers to design the apartment unit plan with high consumer preference by deriving the correlation and importance of the floor plan elements of the apartment preferred by the consumers through the machine learning and reflecting this information from the early design process. The data on the pre-sale competition rate and the elements of the floor plan are collected as data, and the correlation between pre-sale competition rate and independent variables is analyzed through machine learning. This analytical model can be used to review the apartment unit plan produced by the designer and to assist the designer. Therefore, it is possible to make a floor plan of apartment housing with high preference because it is possible to feedback apartment unit plan by using trained model when it is used in floor plan design of apartment housing.

Keywords: apartment unit plan, data-driven design, design methodology, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 232