Search results for: extreme streamflow

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: Matthias Leitner, Gernot Pottlacher

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Experimental determination of critical point data like critical temperature, critical pressure, critical volume and critical compressibility of high-melting metals such as niobium is very rare due to the outstanding experimental difficulties in reaching the necessary extreme temperature and pressure regimes. Experimental techniques to achieve such extreme conditions could be diamond anvil devices, two stage gas guns or metal samples hit by explosively accelerated flyers. Electrical pulse-heating under increased pressures would be another choice. This technique heats thin wire samples of 0.5 mm diameter and 40 mm length from room temperature to melting and then further to the end of the stable phase, the spinodal line, within several microseconds. When crossing the spinodal line, the sample explodes and reaches the gaseous phase. In our laboratory, pulse-heating experiments can be performed under variation of the ambient pressure from 1 to 5000 bar and allow a direct determination of critical point data for low-melting, but not for high-melting metals. However, the critical point also can be estimated by extrapolating the liquid phase density according to theoretical models. A reasonable prerequisite for the extrapolation is the existence of data that cover as much as possible of the liquid phase and at the same time exhibit small uncertainties. Ohmic pulse-heating was therefore applied to determine thermal volume expansion, and from that density of niobium over the entire liquid phase. As a first step, experiments under ambient pressure were performed. The second step will be to perform experiments under high-pressure conditions. During the heating process, shadow images of the expanding sample wire were captured at a frame rate of 4 × 105 fps to monitor the radial expansion as a function of time. Simultaneously, the sample radiance was measured with a pyrometer operating at a mean effective wavelength of 652 nm. To increase the accuracy of temperature deduction, spectral emittance in the liquid phase is also taken into account. Due to the high heating rates of about 2 × 108 K/s, longitudinal expansion of the wire is inhibited which implies an increased radial expansion. As a consequence, measuring the temperature dependent radial expansion is sufficient to deduce density as a function of temperature. This is accomplished by evaluating the full widths at half maximum of the cup-shaped intensity profiles that are calculated from each shadow image of the expanding wire. Relating these diameters to the diameter obtained before the pulse-heating start, the temperature dependent volume expansion is calculated. With the help of the known room-temperature density, volume expansion is then converted into density data. The so-obtained liquid density behavior is compared to existing literature data and provides another independent source of experimental data. In this work, the newly determined off-critical liquid phase density was in a second step utilized as input data for the estimation of niobium’s critical point. The approach used, heuristically takes into account the crossover from mean field to Ising behavior, as well as the non-linearity of the phase diagram’s diameter.

Keywords: critical point data, density, liquid metals, niobium, ohmic pulse-heating, volume expansion

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Authors: Igor Svishchev, Kashif Choudhry

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Progress in advanced energy technologies is not feasible without understanding how engineering materials perform under extreme environmental conditions. The corrosion behaviour of Fe-Ni-Cr and Zr alloys has been systematically examined under high-temperature and supercritical water flow conditions. The changes in elemental release rate and dissolved gas concentration provide valuable insights into the mechanism of passivation by forming oxide films. A non-intrusive method for monitoring the extent of surface oxidation based on hydrogen release rate has been developed. This approach can be used for the on-line monitoring corrosion behavior of reactor materials without the need to interrupt the flow and remove corrosion coupons. Surface catalysed thermochemical reactions may generate sufficient hydrogen to have an effect on the accumulation of oxidizing species generated by radiolytic processes in the heat transport systems of the supercritical water cooled nuclear reactor.

Keywords: high-temperature corrosion, non-intrusive monitoring, reactor materials, supercritical water

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Authors: B. R. S. Babu, E. Prasad, P. V. Laveen, A. M. Vinodkumar

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Searching the “Island of stability” is a topic of extreme interest in theoretical as well as experimental modern physics today. This “island of stability” is spanned by superheavy elements (SHE's) that are produced in the laboratory. SHE's are believed to exist primarily due to the “magic” stabilizing effects of nuclear shell structure. SHE synthesis is extremely difficult due to their very low production cross section, often of the order of pico barns or less. Stabilizing effects of shell closures at proton number Z=82 and neutron number N=126 are predicted theoretically. Though stabilizing effects of Z=82 have been experimentally verified, no concluding observations have been made with N=126, so far. We measured and analyzed the total evaporation residue (ER) cross sections for a number of systems with neutron number around 126 to explore possible shell closure effects in ER cross sections, in this work.

Keywords: super heavy elements, fusion, evaporation residue, compund nucleus

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Authors: D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha, A. Harouz

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The development and operation of renewable energy known an important development in the world with significant growth potential. Estimate the solar radiation on terrestrial geographic locality is of extreme importance, firstly to choose the appropriate site where to place solar systems (solar power plants for electricity generation, for example) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using solar energy. In addition, solar radiation measurements are limited to a few areas only in Algeria. Thus, we use theoretical approaches to assess the solar radiation on a given location. The Adrar region is one of the most favorable sites for solar energy use with a medium flow that exceeds 7 kWh / m2 / d and saddle of over 3500 hours per year. Our goal in this work focuses on the creation of a data bank for the given data in the energy field of the Adrar region for the period of the year and the month then the integration of these data into a geographic Information System (GIS) to estimate the solar flux on a location on the map.

Keywords: Adrar, flow, GIS, deposit potential

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: Luisa Kynast

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It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

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Authors: Fawehinmi Olabisi Alaba, O. R. Adeniyi

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Farming households faces lots of disaster which contribute to endemic poverty. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Primary data was administered to farming household using multi-stage random sampling technique. The result of the analysis shows that majority of the respondents (69.9%) are male, have mean household size, years of formal education and age of 5±1.14, 6±3.41, and 51.06±10.43 respectively. The major (48.9%) type of disaster experienced is flooding. Major coping mechanism adopted is sourcing for support from family and friends. Age, education, experience, access to extension agent, and mitigation control method contribute significantly to vulnerability to disaster. The major adaptation method (62.3%) is construction of drainage. The study revealed that the coping mechanisms employed may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Thus there is need for training of the farmers on measures to adapt to mitigate the shock from disasters.

Keywords: adaptation, disasters, flooding, vulnerability

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Authors: Salman Khokhar

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The geopolitical landscape in Pakistan has become shrouded with suspicion between the state and the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community. The study argues that the social mobility of the community has become severely compromised, especially after the inception of the blasphemy laws and their subsequent enhancements in later years. The securitization of the community has ensured that the daily lives of Ahmadi Muslims have become severely restricted as their integration and assimilation into society become defined through their religious identity and beliefs. Consequently, performing congregational prayers or engaging in any other community activity is carried out secretly as the repercussions of such actions may lead to incarceration or, in some cases, even more extreme apprehension measures. The securitization of Ahmadis, and their daily lives are severely curtailed in Pakistan; however, due to transnational approaches, the community must implement specific measures to ensure the safety of its members, even in the West. The eyes of suspicion are always on the activities of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, and the community’s headquarters in Rabwah is always being viewed with suspicious lenses. The study considers how secrecy has enveloped the everyday life of the Ahmadi Muslim community and how it embodies characteristics which we thought had come to an end many years ago.

Keywords: freedom, ideology, Islam, persecution

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Authors: Maryna Barushka, Aleh Meshyk

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The research analyzes absolute maximum soil temperatures registered at 36 gauge stations in Belarus from 1950 to 2013. The main method applied in the research is cartographic, in particular, trend surface analysis. Warming that had never been so long and intensive before started in 1988. The average temperature in January and February of that year exceeded the norm by 7-7.5 С, in March and April by 3-5С. In general, that year, as well as the year of 2008, happened to be the hottest ones in the whole period of instrumental observation. Yearly average air temperature in Belarus in those years was +8.0-8.2 С, which exceeded the norm by 2.0 – 2.2 С. The warming has been observed so far. The only exception was in 1996 when the yearly average air temperature in Belarus was below normal by 0.5 С. In Belarus the value of trend line of standard temperature deviation in the warmest months (July-August) has been positive for the past 25 years. In 2010 absolute maximum air and soil temperature exceeded the norm at 15 gauge stations in Belarus. The structure of natural processes includes global, regional, and local constituents. Trend surface analysis of the investigated characteristics makes it possible to determine global, regional, and local components. Linear trend surface shows the occurrence of weather deviations on a global scale, outside Belarus. Maximum soil temperature appears to be growing in the south-west direction with the gradient of 5.0 С. It is explained by the latitude factor. Polynomial trend surfaces show regional peculiarities of Belarus. Extreme temperature regime is formed due to some factors. The prevailing one is advection of turbulent flow of the ground layer of the atmosphere. In summer influence of the Azores High producing anticyclones is great. The Gulf Stream current forms the values of temperature trends in a year period. The most intensive flow of the Gulf Stream in the second half of winter and the second half of summer coincides with the periods of maximum temperature trends in Belarus. It is possible to estimate a local component of weather deviations in the analysis of the difference in values of the investigated characteristics and their trend surfaces. Maximum positive deviation (up to +4 С) of averaged soil temperature corresponds to the flat terrain in Pripyat Polesie, Brest Polesie, and Belarusian Poozerie Area. Negative differences correspond to the higher relief which partially compensates extreme heat regime of soils. Another important factor for maximum soil temperature in these areas is peat-bog soils with the least albedo of 8-15%. As yearly maximum soil temperature reaches 40-60 С, this could be both negative and positive factors for Belarus’s environment and economy. High temperature causes droughts resulting in crops dying and soil blowing. On the other hand, vegetation period has lengthened thanks to bigger heat resources, which allows planting such heat-loving crops as melons and grapes with appropriate irrigation. Thus, trend surface analysis allows determining global, regional, and local factors in accumulating heat in the soils of Belarus.

Keywords: soil, temperature, trend surface analysis, warming

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Authors: An-Jui. Li, Kelvin Lim, Chien-Kuo Chiu, Benson Hsiung

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This paper details the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of slope stability whereby quick and convenient solutions can be obtained using the developed tool. The AI tool used in this study is the artificial neural network (ANN), while the slope stability analysis methods are the finite element limit analysis methods. The developed tool allows for the prompt prediction of the safety factors of fill slopes and their corresponding probability of failure (depending on the degree of variation of the soil parameters), which can give the practicing engineer a reasonable basis in their decision making. In fact, the successful use of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm shows that slope stability analysis is no longer confined to the conventional methods of modeling, which at times may be tedious and repetitive during the preliminary design stage where the focus is more on cost saving options rather than detailed design. Therefore, similar ANN-based tools can be further developed to assist engineers in this aspect.

Keywords: landslide, limit analysis, artificial neural network, soil properties

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Authors: Kuen-Ming Shu, Jyun-Wei Chen

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Encapsulated O-rings are specifically designed to address the problem of sealing the most hostile chemicals and extreme temperature applications. Ultrasonic vibration hot embossing and ultrasonic welding techniques provide a fast and reliable method to fabricate encapsulated O-ring. This paper performs the design and analysis method of the acoustic horns with double extrusion to process tube double side flange simultaneously. The paper deals with study through Finite Element Method (FEM) of ultrasonic stepped horn used to process a capsulated O-ring, the theoretical dimensions of horns, and their natural frequencies and amplitudes are obtained through the simulations of COMOSOL software. Furthermore, real horns were fabricated, tested and verified to proof the practical utility of these horns.

Keywords: encapsulated O-rings, ultrasonic vibration hot embossing, flange making, acoustic horn, finite element analysis

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Jin Gao, Jin Zhang, Xiaogang Li

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Outdoor exposure experiments were conducted in three extreme environments, namely the Chinese plateau mountain environment (Lhasa), the cold–temperate environment (Mohe), and the marine atmospheric environment (Wanning), to track a new long-life environment-friendly polyurethane coating. The relationship between apparent properties, namely gloss and microstructural changes, was analyzed, and the influence of typical climatic environment on the aging mechanism of polyurethane coatings was discussed. Results show that the UV radiation in the Lhasa area causes photoaging degradation, micropores are formed on the coating surface, and the powdering phenomenon is obvious. Photodegradation occurs in the Wanning area, and a hydrolysis reaction is observed. The hydrolysis reaction catalyzes the photoaging, the coating surface becomes yellow, and the powdering becomes serious. Photoaging is also present in the Mohe area, but it is mainly due to temperature changes that in turn change the internal stress of the coating. Microcracks and bumps form on the coating surface.

Keywords: aging, atmospheric environment, outdoor exposure, polyurethane coating

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Authors: Alexis Grandcoin, Stephanie Piel, Estelle Baures

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Brittany (France) is an agricultural region, where emerging pollutants are highly at risk to reach water bodies. Among them, pesticides metabolites are frequently detected in surface waters. The Vilaine watershed (11 000 km²) is of great interest, as a large drinking water treatment plant (100 000 m³/day) is located at the extreme downstream of it. This study aims to provide an evaluation of the pesticides metabolites pollution in the Vilaine watershed, and an understanding of their availability, in order to protect the water resource. Hydroclimatic conditions, land use, and water quality parameters controlling metabolites availability are emphasized. Later this knowledge will be used to understand the favoring conditions resulting in metabolites export towards surface water. 19 sampling points have been strategically chosen along the 220 km of the Vilaine river and its 3 main influents. Furthermore, the intakes of two drinking water plants have been sampled, one is located at the extreme downstream of the Vilaine river and the other is the riparian groundwater under the Vilaine river. 5 sampling campaigns with various hydroclimatic conditions have been carried out. Water quality parameters and hydroclimatic conditions have been measured. 15 environmentally relevant pesticides and metabolites have been analyzed. Also, these compounds are recalcitrant to classic water treatment that is why they have been selected. An evaluation of the watershed contamination has been done in 2016-2017. First observations showed that aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) and metolachlor ethanesulfonic acid (MESA) are the most detected compounds in surface waters samples with 100 % and 98 % frequency of detection respectively. They are the main pollutants of the watershed regardless of the hydroclimatic conditions. AMPA concentration in the river strongly increases downstream of Rennes agglomeration (220k inhabitants) and reaches a maximum of 2.3 µg/l in low waters conditions. Groundwater contains mainly MESA, Diuron and metazachlor ESA at concentrations close to limits of quantification (LOQ) (0.02 µg/L). Metolachlor, metazachlor and alachlor due to their fast degradation in soils were found in small amounts (LOQ – 0.2 µg/L). Conversely glyphosate was regularly found during warm and sunny periods up to 0.6 µg/L. Soil uses (agricultural cultures types, urban areas, forests, wastewater treatment plants implementation), water quality parameters, and hydroclimatic conditions have been correlated to pesticides and metabolites concentration in waters. Statistical treatments showed that chloroacetamides metabolites and AMPA behave differently regardless of the hydroclimatic conditions. Chloroacetamides are correlated to each other, to agricultural areas and to typical agricultural tracers as nitrates. They are present in waters the whole year, especially during rainy periods, suggesting important stocks in soils. Also Chloroacetamides are negatively correlated with AMPA, the different forms of phosphorus, and organic matter. AMPA is ubiquitous but strongly correlated with urban areas despite the recent French regulation, restricting glyphosate to agricultural and private uses. This work helps to predict and understand metabolites present in the water resource used to craft drinking water. As the studied metabolites are difficult to remove, this project will be completed by a water treatment part.

Keywords: agricultural watershed, AMPA, metolachlor-ESA, water resource

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Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

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Authors: Won Taek Oh, Adin Richard

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Workers are often required to enter unsupported trenches during the construction process, which may present serious risks. Trench failures can result in death or damage to adjacent properties, therefore trenches should be excavated with extreme precaution. Excavation work is often done in unsaturated soils, where the critical height (i.e. maximum depth that can be excavated without failure) of unsupported trenches can be more reliably estimated by considering the influence of matric suction. In this study, coupled stress/pore-water pressure analyses are conducted to investigate the critical height of sloped unsupported trenches considering the influence of pore-water pressure redistribution caused by excavating. Four different wall slopes (1.5V:1H, 2V:1H, 3V:1H, and 90°) and a vertical trench with the top 0.3 m sloped 1:1 were considered in the analyses with multiple depths of the ground water table in a sand. For comparison, the critical heights were also estimated using the limit equilibrium method for the same excavation scenarios used in the coupled analyses.

Keywords: critical height, matric suction, unsaturated soil, unsupported trench

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Muriel Canas-Walker

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The 2012 TV series "The Legend of Zhen Huan" is one of the most popular and influential historical dramas on Chinese television and is regularly discussed on Chinese social media such as Weibo. Set in the Qing dynasty, the 76 episodes series features palace intrigues focused on female characters. In the Forbidden City, concubines must survive the cruelty of an extreme polygamy system, constantly competing against each other. The patriarchal oppression of the women sequestred in the harem relies on fierce female competition and does not leave much room for compassion. Using Michel Foucault’s theory of power, feminist theories, and visual anthropology, this paper analyzes the complex relationships between the female characters, from their rise to power to their fall from grace, from alliances to betrayals, from sorority to sororicide. This analysis aims to understand what makes this series particularly popular with young female audiences in China and explain its importance in Chinese media.

Keywords: Chinese TV Drama, feminism, popular culture, Theory of Power

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Authors: Amna Khan, Zareena Kausar, Saad Malik

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Bio Mechatronics has extended applications in the field of rehabilitation. It has been contributing since World War II in improving the applicability of prosthesis and assistive devices in real life scenarios. In this paper, classification accuracies have been compared for two classifiers against five positions of elbow. Electromyography (EMG) signals analysis have been acquired directly from skeletal muscles of human forearm for each of the three defined positions and at modified extreme positions of elbow flexion and extension using 8 electrode Myo armband sensor. Features were extracted from filtered EMG signals for each position. Performance of two classifiers, support vector machine (SVM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) has been compared by analyzing the classification accuracies. SVM illustrated classification accuracies between 90-96%, in contrast to 84-87% depicted by LDA for five defined positions of elbow keeping the number of samples and selected feature the same for both SVM and LDA.

Keywords: classification accuracies, electromyography, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Myo armband sensor, support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Priyanka Bhatnagar, Malkeshkumar Patel, Joondong Kim, Joonpyo Hong

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Artificial skin and sensory memory platforms are produced using a flexible, transparent photovoltaic (TPV) device. The TPV device is composed of a metal oxide heterojunction (nZnO/p-NiO) and transmits visible light (> 50%) while producing substantial electric power (0.5 V and 200 μA cm-2 ). This TPV device is a transparent energy interface that can be used to detect signals and propagate information without an external energy supply. The TPV artificial skin offers a temperature detection range (0 C75 C) that is wider than that of natural skin (5 C48 °C) due to the temperature-sensitive pyrocurrent from the ZnO layer. Moreover, the TPV thermoreceptor offers sensory memory of extreme thermal stimuli. Much like natural skin, artificial skin uses the nociceptor mechanism to protect tissue from harmful damage via signal amplification (hyperalgesia) and early adaption (allodynia). This demonstrates the many features of TPV artificial skin, which can sense and transmit signals and memorize information under self-operation mode. This transparent photovoltaic skin can provide sustainable energy for use in human electronics.

Keywords: transparent, photovoltaics, thermal memory, artificial skin, thermoreceptor

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Authors: Kaustav Mukherjee

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In this paper we propose a Neural Style Transfer solution whereby we have created a Lightweight Separable Convolution Kernel Based GAN Architecture (SC-GAN) which will very useful for designing filter for Mobile Phone Cameras and also Edge Devices which will convert any image to its 2D ANIMATED COMIC STYLE Movies like HEMAN, SUPERMAN, JUNGLE-BOOK. This will help the 2D animation artist by relieving to create new characters from real life person's images without having to go for endless hours of manual labour drawing each and every pose of a cartoon. It can even be used to create scenes from real life images.This will reduce a huge amount of turn around time to make 2D animated movies and decrease cost in terms of manpower and time. In addition to that being extreme light-weight it can be used as camera filters capable of taking Comic Style Shots using mobile phone camera or edge device cameras like Raspberry Pi 4,NVIDIA Jetson NANO etc. Existing Methods like CartoonGAN with the model size close to 170 MB is too heavy weight for mobile phones and edge devices due to their scarcity in resources. Compared to the current state of the art our proposed method which has a total model size of 31 MB which clearly makes it ideal and ultra-efficient for designing of camera filters on low resource devices like mobile phones, tablets and edge devices running OS or RTOS. .Owing to use of high resolution input and usage of bigger convolution kernel size it produces richer resolution Comic-Style Pictures implementation with 6 times lesser number of parameters and with just 25 extra epoch trained on a dataset of less than 1000 which breaks the myth that all GAN need mammoth amount of data. Our network reduces the density of the Gan architecture by using Depthwise Separable Convolution which does the convolution operation on each of the RGB channels separately then we use a Point-Wise Convolution to bring back the network into required channel number using 1 by 1 kernel.This reduces the number of parameters substantially and makes it extreme light-weight and suitable for mobile phones and edge devices. The architecture mentioned in the present paper make use of Parameterised Batch Normalization Goodfellow etc al. (Deep Learning OPTIMIZATION FOR TRAINING DEEP MODELS page 320) which makes the network to use the advantage of Batch Norm for easier training while maintaining the non-linear feature capture by inducing the learnable parameters

Keywords: comic stylisation from camera image using GAN, creating 2D animated movie style custom stickers from images, depth-wise separable convolutional neural network for light-weight GAN architecture for EDGE devices, GAN architecture for 2D animated cartoonizing neural style, neural style transfer for edge, model distilation, perceptual loss

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Authors: Pengfei Liu, Yiyi Xu

Abstract:

There have been substantial incidents of wind turbine blade fractures and failures due to the lack of systematic blade strength design method incorporated with the aerodynamic forces and power generation efficiency. This research was to develop a methodology and procedure for the wind turbine rotor blade strength taking into account the strength, integration, and aerodynamic performance in terms of power generation efficiency. The wind turbine blade designed using this method and procedure will have a uniform strength across the span to save unnecessary thickness in many blade radial locations and yet to maintain the optimum power generation performance. A turbine rotor code, taking into account both aerodynamic and structural properties, was developed. An existing wind turbine blade was used as an example. For a condition of extreme wind speed of 100 km per hour, the design reduced about 19% of material usage while maintaining the optimum power regeneration efficiency.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, turbine blade strength, aerodynamics-strength coupled optimization

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Authors: Nader Saadatkhah, Jafar Rahnamarad, Shattri Mansor, Zailani Khuzaimah, Arnis Asmat, Nor Aizam Adnan, Siti Noradzah Adam

Abstract:

Kelantan river basin as a flood prone area at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia has suffered several flood and mudflow events in the recent years. The current research attempted to assess the land cover changes impact in the Kelantan river basin focused on the runoff contributions from different land cover classes and the potential impact of land cover changes on runoff generation. In this regards, the hydrological regional modeling of rainfall induced runoff event as the improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional model (Improved-TRIGRS) was employed to compute rate of infiltration, and subsequently changes in the discharge volume in this study. The effects of land use changes on peak flow and runoff volume was investigated using storm rainfall events during the last three decades.

Keywords: improved-TRIGRS model, land cover changes, Kelantan river basin, flood event

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Authors: M. Elanchezhian, C. Gunasekaran, A. Agnes Deepa, M. Salahudeen

Abstract:

In recent years climate change is one of the most emerging threats facing by biodiversity both the animals and plants species. Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations, extreme temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, insects-plant interaction are the main criteria that affect biodiversity. In the present study, which emphasis the climate change and its effects on terrestrial insect diversity in Mukuruthi National Park a protected areas of Western Ghats in India. Sampling was done seasonally at the three areas using pitfall traps, over the period of January to December 2013. The statistical findings were done by Shannon wiener diversity index (H). A significant seasonal variation pattern was detected for total insect’s diversity at the different study areas. Totally nine orders of insects were recorded. Diversity and abundance of terrestrial insects shows much difference between the Natural, Shoal forest and the Grasslands.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, mukuruthi national park, terrestrial invertebrates

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Authors: Emi̇ne Yuksel, Murat Kiliç, Onur Ülker

Abstract:

Although minimalism has been coming into being in the field of interior design for a long time, it also brought a wide range of reaction. The more simple and feeling of emptiness usage of minimalism in space and furniture design has been found extremely boring so far, as a reaction to minimalism, a movement of maximalism was emerged. Thus more extravagant, splendid, magnificent and comfortable design approach was substituted by the greatest, largest and the extreme. Thus, the philosophy of “less is bore” of minimalism was replaced by “less is more” giving rise to a new interpretation in the field of interior design. While maximalism reminded us the Victorian, Rococo, Arts and Crafts and Neoclassic styles in interior design, it drew attention to the furniture designs that covered all areas of space all in one. In this study, we search the effect of maximalist approach which was born as a reaction to minimalism in furniture. Firstly, it is explained how did the maximalism emerge and its philosophy, a literature investigation was scanned and investigated. As a research method, it is concerned with the investigation of studies undertaken by the pioneers of interior space designers and architects. The findings of this study have been evaluated in the conclusion section.

Keywords: furniture design, maximalism, minimalism, texture

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Authors: Pauline Ribert, Gaelle Roudaut, Sebastien Dupont, Laurent Beney

Abstract:

Yeasts, anhydrobiotic organisms, can survive extreme water disturbances, thanks to the prolonged and reversible suspension of their cellular activity as well as the establishment of a defense arsenal. This property is exploited by many industrialists. One of the protection systems implemented by yeast is the vitrification of its cytoplasm by trehalose. The thermal resistance of dry yeasts is a crucial parameter for their use. However, studies on the thermal resistance of dry yeasts are often based on yeasts produced in laboratory conditions with non-optimal drying processes. We, therefore, propose a study on the thermal resistance of industrial dry yeasts in relation to their thermophysical properties. Heat stress was applied at three temperatures (50, 75, and 100°C) for 10, 30, or 60-minute treatments. The survival of yeasts to these treatments was estimated, and their thermophysical properties were studied by differential scanning calorimetry. The industrial dry yeasts resisted 60 minutes at 50°C and 75°C and 10 minutes at a temperature close to 100°C. At 100°C, yeast was above their glass transition temperature. Industrial dry yeasts are therefore capable of withstanding high thermal stress if maintained in a specific thermophysical state.

Keywords: dry yeast, glass transition, thermal resistance, vitrification

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Authors: Taif Rocky, Uttam Saha, Mahobul Islam

Abstract:

With a rapid urbanisation in Bangladesh, waste management remains one of the core challenges. Turning municipal waste into biogas for mass usage is a solution that Bangladesh needs to adopt urgently. Practical Action with its commitment to challenging poverty with technological justice has piloted such idea in Gaibandha. The initiative received immense success and drew the attention of policy makers and practitioners. We believe, biogas from waste can highly contribute to meet the growing demand for energy in the country at present and in the future. Practical Action has field based experience in promoting small scale and innovative technologies. We have proven track record in integrated solid waste management. We further utilized this experience to promote waste to biogas at end users’ level. In 2011, we have piloted a project on waste to biogas in Gaibandha, a northern secondary town of Bangladesh. With resource and support from UNICEF and with our own innovative funds we have established a complete chain of utilizing waste to the renewable energy source and organic fertilizer. Biogas is produced from municipal solid waste, which is properly collected, transported and segregated by private entrepreneurs. The project has two major focuses, diversification of biogas end use and establishing a public-private partnership business model. The project benefits include Recycling of Wastes, Improved institutional (municipal) capacity, Livelihood from improved services and Direct Income from the project. Project risks include Change of municipal leadership, Traditional mindset, Access to decision making, Land availability. We have observed several outcomes from the initiative. Up scaling such an initiative will certainly contribute for sustainable cleaner and healthier urban environment and urban poverty reduction. - It reduces the unsafe disposal of wastes which improve the cleanliness and environment of the town. -Make drainage system effective reducing the adverse impact of water logging or flooding. -Improve public health from better management of wastes. -Promotes usage of biogas replacing the use of firewood/coal which creates smoke and indoor air pollution in kitchens which have long term impact on health of women and children. -Reduce the greenhouse gas emission from the anaerobic recycling of wastes and contributes to sustainable urban environment. -Promote the concept of agroecology from the uses of bio slurry/compost which contributes to food security. -Creates green jobs from waste value chain which impacts on poverty alleviation of urban extreme poor. -Improve municipal governance from inclusive waste services and functional partnership with private sectors. -Contribute to the implementation of 3R (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) Strategy and Employment Creation of extreme poor to achieve the target set in Vision 2021 by Government of Bangladesh.

Keywords: kitchen waste, secondary town, biogas, segregation

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Authors: Mohan Kotamrazu

Abstract:

Cyclone Hudhud which battered the city of Visakhapatnam on 12^th October, 2014, damaged many buildings, public amenities and infrastructure facilities along the Visakha- Bheemili coastal corridor. More than half the green cover of the city was wiped out. Majority of the trees along the coastal corridor suffered from complete or partial damage. In order to understand the different ways that trees incurred damage during the cyclone, a damage assessment study was carried out by the author. The areas covered by this study included two university campuses, several parks and residential colonies which bore the brunt of the cyclone. Post disaster attempts have been made to restore many of the trees that have suffered from partial or complete damage from the effects of extreme winds. This paper examines the various ways that trees incurred damage from the cyclone Hudhud and presents some examples of the restoration efforts carried out by educational institutions, public parks and religious institutions of the city of Visakhapatnam in the aftermath of the devastating cyclone.

Keywords: defoliaton, salt spray damage, uprooting and wind throw, restoration

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