Search results for: exclusion probability

Authors: Md. S. Sabuz

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Bangladesh, a South Asian developing country, has achieved a remarkable breakthrough in health indicators during the last four decades despite immense income inequality. This phenomenon results in the mystical exclusion of marginalized people from obtaining health care facilities. However, the persistence of exclusion of the disadvantaged remains troubling. Exclusion occurs from occupational inferiority, pay and wage differences, educational backwardness, gender disparity to urban-rural complexity and eliminate the unprivileged from seeking and availing the health services. Evidence from Bangladesh shows that many sick people prefer to die at home without securing medical services because in previous times they were not treated well, not because the medical facilities were inadequate or antediluvian but the socio-economic class allows them to receive obdurate treatment. Furthermore, government and policymakers have given enormous emphasis on infrastructural development and achieving health indicators instead of ensuring quality services and inclusiveness of people from all spheres. Therefore, it is high time to address the issues concerning this and highlight the impact of economic status on health status in a sociological perspective. The objective of this study is to consider ways of assessing and exploring the impact of economic status for instance: occupational status, pay and wage variable, on health status in the context of Bangladesh. The hypotheses are that there are a significant number of factors affecting economic status which are impactful for health status eventually, but acute income inequality is a prominent factor. Illiteracy, gender disparity, remoteness, incredibility on services, superior costs, superstition etc. are the dominant indicators behind the economic factors influencing the health status. The chosen methodologies are a qualitative and quantitative approaches to accomplish the research objectives. Secondary sources of data will be used to conduct the study. Surveys will be conducted on the people who have ever been through the health care facilities and people from the different socio-economic and cultural backgrounds. Focus group discussions will be conducted to acquire the data from different cultural and regional citizens. The findings show that 48% of people who are from disadvantaged communities have been deprived of proper health care facilities. The general reasons behind this are the higher cost of medicines and other equipment. A significant number of people are unaware of the appropriate facilities. It was found that the socio-economic variables are the main influential factors that work as the driving force for both economic dimension and health status. Above all regional variables and gender, dimensions have an enormous effect on determining the health status of an individual or community. Amidst many positive achievements for example decrease in the child mortality rate, an increase in the immunization programs of the child etc., the inclusiveness of all classes of people in health care facilities has been overshadowed in Bangladesh. However, this phenomenon along with the socio-economic and cultural phenomena significantly demolishes the quality and inclusiveness of the health status of people.

Keywords: cultural context of health, economic status, gender and health, rural health care

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Authors: Ahmed Abdullah Ahmed

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The task of recognizing the writer of a handwritten text has been an attractive research problem in the document analysis and recognition community with applications in handwriting forensics, paleography, document examination and handwriting recognition. This research presents an automatic method for writer recognition from digitized images of unconstrained writings. Although a great effort has been made by previous studies to come out with various methods, their performances, especially in terms of accuracy, are fallen short, and room for improvements is still wide open. The proposed technique employs optimal codebook based writer characterization where each writing sample is represented by a set of features computed from two codebooks, beginning and ending. Unlike most of the classical codebook based approaches which segment the writing into graphemes, this study is based on fragmenting a particular area of writing which are beginning and ending strokes. The proposed method starting with contour detection to extract significant information from the handwriting and the curve fragmentation is then employed to categorize the handwriting into Beginning and Ending zones into small fragments. The similar fragments of beginning strokes are grouped together to create Beginning cluster, and similarly, the ending strokes are grouped to create the ending cluster. These two clusters lead to the development of two codebooks (beginning and ending) by choosing the center of every similar fragments group. Writings under study are then represented by computing the probability of occurrence of codebook patterns. The probability distribution is used to characterize each writer. Two writings are then compared by computing distances between their respective probability distribution. The evaluations carried out on ICFHR standard dataset of 206 writers using Beginning and Ending codebooks separately. Finally, the Ending codebook achieved the highest identification rate of 98.23%, which is the best result so far on ICFHR dataset.

Keywords: off-line text-independent writer identification, feature extraction, codebook, fragments

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Authors: Ibrahim Turfanda, Soniya Rai, Karan Vadher

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Objectives— The study aims to compare real-world adherence to and persistence with dulaglutide and liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating treatment in UAE. Methods— This was a retrospective, non-interventional study (observation period: 01 March 2017–31 August 2019) using the UAE Dubai e-Claims database. Included: adult patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide 01 September 2017–31 August 2018 (index period) with: ≥1 claim for T2D in the 6 months before index date (ID); ≥1 claim for dulaglutide/liraglutide during index period; and continuous medical enrolment for ≥6 months before and ≥12 months after ID. Key endpoints, assessed 3/6/12 months after ID: adherence to treatment (proportion of days covered [PDC; PDC ≥80% considered ‘adherent’], per-group mean±standard deviation [SD] PDC); and persistence (number of continuous therapy days from ID until discontinuation [i.e., >45 days gap] or end of observation period). Patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide were propensity score matched (1:1) based on baseline characteristics. Between-group comparison of adherence was analysed using the McNemar test (α=0.025). Persistence was analysed using Kaplan–Meier estimates with log-rank tests (α=0.025) for between-group comparisons. This study presents 12-month outcomes. Results— Following propensity score matching, 263 patients were included in each group. Mean±SD PDC for all patients at 12 months was significantly higher in the dulaglutide versus the liraglutide group (dulaglutide=0.48±0.30, liraglutide=0.39±0.28, p=0.0002). The proportion of adherent patients favored dulaglutide (dulaglutide=20.2%, liraglutide=12.9%, p=0.0302), as did the probability of being adherent to treatment (odds ratio [97.5% CI]: 1.70 [0.99, 2.91]; p=0.03). Proportion of persistent patients also favoured dulaglutide (dulaglutide=15.2%, liraglutide=9.1%, p=0.0528), as did the probability of discontinuing treatment 12 months after ID (p=0.027). Conclusions— Based on the UAE Dubai e-Claims database data, dulaglutide initiators exhibited significantly greater adherence in terms of mean PDC versus liraglutide initiators. The proportion of adherent patients and the probability of being adherent favored the dulaglutide group, as did treatment persistence.

Keywords: adherence, dulaglutide, effectiveness, liraglutide, persistence

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Authors: Jessica Leigh Thornton

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The South African Constitution outlines provisions for every detainee and sentenced prisoner in relation to the human rights recognized in the country since 1994; but currently, across the country, prisons have yet to meet many of these criteria. Consequently, their day-to-day lives are marked by extreme lack of privacy, high rates of infection, poor nutrition, and deleterious living conditions, which steadily erode prisoners’ mental and physical capacities rather than rehabilitating inmates so that they can effectively reintegrate into society. Even more so, policy reform, advocacy, security, and rehabilitation programs continue to be based on research and theories that were developed to explain the experiences of men, while female offenders are seen as the “special category” of inmates. Yet, the experiences of women and their pathways to incarceration are remarkably different from those of male offenders. Consequently, little is known about the profile, nature and contributing factors and experiences of female offenders which has impeded a comprehensive and integrated understanding of the subject of female criminality. The number of women globally in correctional centers has more than doubled over the past fifteen years (these increases vary from prison to prison and country to country). Yet, female offenders have largely been ignored in research even though the minority status of female offenders is a phenomenon that is not peculiar to South Africa as the number of women incarcerated has increased by 68% within the decade. Within South Africa, there have been minimal studies conducted on the gendered experience of offenders. While some studies have explored the pathways to female offending, gender-sensitive correctional programming for women that respond to their needs has been overlooked. This often leads to a neglect of the needs of female offenders, not only in terms of programs and services delivery to this minority group but also from a research perspective. In response, the aim of the proposed research is twofold: Firstly, the lived experiences and views of rehabilitation and reintegration of female offenders will be explored. Secondly, the various pathways into and out of recidivism amongst female offenders will be investigated regarding their inclusion in educational rehabilitation.

Keywords: female incarceration, educational rehabilitation, exclusion, experiences of female offenders

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: Rona Hanani Simamora, Bahagia Loebis, M. Surya Husada

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Background: The exact cause of schizophrenia is not known, although several etiology theories have been proposed for the disease, including immune dysfunction or autoimmune mechanisms. Cytokines including Tnf-α has an important role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and the effects of pharmacological treatment with antipsychotics. Nicotine is widespread effects on the brain, immune system and cytokine levels. Smoking among schizophrenic patients could play a role in the altered cytokine profiles of schizophrenia such as Tnf-α. Aims: To determine differences of serum Tnf-α levels between schizophrenic patients with smoking in male and healthy control. Methods: This study was a comparative analytic study, divided into two groups: 1) group of male schizophrenic patients with smoking (n1=30) with inclusion criteria were patients who have been diagnosed schizophrenic based PPDGJ-III, 20-60 years old, male, smoking, chronic schizophrenic patients in the stable phase and willing to participate this study. Exclusion criteria were having other mental disorders and comorbidity with other medical illnesses. 2) healthy control group (n2=30) with inclusion criteria were 20-60 years old, male, smoking, willing to participate this study. Exclusion criteria were having mental disorder, a family history of psychiatric disorders, the other medical illnesses, a history of alcohol and other substances abuse (except caffeine and nicotine). Serum Tnf-α were analyzed using the Quantikine HS Human Tnf –α Immunoassay. Results: Serum Tnf-α level measure in patient schizophrenia male with smoking and compared with the healthy control subjects. Tnf-α levels were significantly higher in patients schizophrenic male with smoking (25,79±27,96) to healthy control subjects (2,74±2,19), by using the Mann Whitney U test showed a statistically significant difference was observed for serum Tnf-α level (p < 0,001). Conclusions: Schizophrenia is a highly heterogeneous disorder, and this study shows an increase Tnf-α as pro-inflammation cytokines in schizophrenics. These results suggest an immune abnormalities may be involved in the etiology and pathophysiology of schizophrenia.

Keywords: male, schizophrenic, smoking, Tnf Alpha

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Nikolaos Koulouris, Anna Kasapoglou, Dimitris Koros

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The paper aims to present the course of ongoing research concerning the treatment of pretrial detainees, convicted or released prisoners for sexual offenses, an area that has not received much attention in Greece in terms of the prison experience and the reintegration potentials regarding this specific category of prisoners. The study plan provides for the use of a combination of research methods (focus groups with prisoners, structured individual interviews with prisoners and prison staff). Also, interviews with ex-prisoners detained regarding sexual offenses will take place. In Greece, there are no special provisions for the treatment of sexual offenders in prison, nor are there any special programs in place for their rehabilitation. Sexual offenders are usually separated from other prisoners, as the informal code of the social organization of the prison community dictates, despite no relevant legal framework. The study aims to explore the reasons for the separate detention of sexual offenders and discuss their special (non) treatment from different points of view, namely the legality and legitimacy of this discriminatory practice in terms of prisoners’ protection, safety, stigmatization, and possible social exclusion, as well as their post-release expectations and social reintegration potentials. The purpose of the research is the exploration of the prison experience of sexual offenders, the exercise of their legal rights, their adjustment to the demands of social life in prison, as well as the role of prison officers and various interventions aiming to their preparation for reentry to society. The study will take into consideration the European and international prison/penitentiary standards and best practices in order to examine the issue comparatively, while the contribution of the United Nations and the Council of Europe and its standards will be used to assess the treatment of sexual offenders in terms of its compatibility to international and European model-rules and trends. The outcome will be utilized to form main directions and propositions for a coherent and consistent human rights-based and social integration-oriented penal policy regarding the treatment of persons accused or convicted of sexual offenses in Greece.

Keywords: prisoners’ treatment, sex offenders, social exclusion, social reintegration

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Authors: Ratu Khabiba, Qisha Quarina

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This study aims to analyse the effect of married couples’ assortative educational attainments on the division of economic activities among themselves in the household. This study contributes to the literature on women’s participation in employment, especially among married women, to see whether the traditional values about gender roles in the household still continue to shape the employment participation among married women in Indonesia, despite increasing women’s human capital through education. This study utilizes the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2016 and estimates the results using the multinomial logit model. Our results show that compared to high-educated educational homogamy couples, educational heterogamy couples, especially hypergamy, have a higher probability of being a single-worker type. Moreover, the high-educated educational homogamy couples have the highest probability of being a dual-worker type. Thus, we found evidence that the traditional values of gender role segregation seem to still play a significant role in married women’s employment decision in Indonesia, particularly for couples’ with educational heterogamy and low-educated educational homogamy couples.

Keywords: assortative education, dual-worker, hypergamy, homogamy, traditional values, women labor participation

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Authors: Boumesbah Asma, Chergui Mohamed El-amine

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Since it has been shown that the multi-objective minimum spanning tree problem (MOST) is NP-hard even with two criteria, we propose in this study a hybrid NSGA-II algorithm with an exact mutation operator, which is only used with low probability, to find an approximation to the Pareto front of the problem. In a connected graph G, a spanning tree T of G being a connected and cycle-free graph, if k edges of G\T are added to T, we obtain a partial graph H of G inducing a reduced size multi-objective spanning tree problem compared to the initial one. With a weak probability for the mutation operator, an exact method for solving the reduced MOST problem considering the graph H is then used to give birth to several mutated solutions from a spanning tree T. Then, the selection operator of NSGA-II is activated to obtain the Pareto front approximation. Finally, an adaptation of the VNS metaheuristic is called for further improvements on this front. It allows finding good individuals to counterbalance the diversification and the intensification during the optimization search process. Experimental comparison studies with an exact method show promising results and indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: minimum spanning tree, multiple objective linear optimization, combinatorial optimization, non-sorting genetic algorithm, variable neighborhood search

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Authors: Urvee B. Trivedi, U. D. Dalal

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As wireless communication services grow quickly; the seriousness of spectrum utilization has been on the rise gradually. An emerging technology, cognitive radio has come out to solve today’s spectrum scarcity problem. To support the spectrum reuse functionality, secondary users are required to sense the radio frequency environment, and once the primary users are found to be active, the secondary users are required to vacate the channel within a certain amount of time. Therefore, spectrum sensing is of significant importance. Once sensing is done, different prediction rules apply to classify the traffic pattern of primary user. Primary user follows two types of traffic patterns: periodic and stochastic ON-OFF patterns. A cognitive radio can learn the patterns in different channels over time. Two types of classification methods are discussed in this paper, by considering edge detection and by using autocorrelation function. Edge detection method has a high accuracy but it cannot tolerate sensing errors. Autocorrelation-based classification is applicable in the real environment as it can tolerate some amount of sensing errors.

Keywords: cognitive radio (CR), probability of detection (PD), probability of false alarm (PF), primary user (PU), secondary user (SU), fast Fourier transform (FFT), signal to noise ratio (SNR)

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Authors: J. Jarolímek, P. Urban, P. Pavlínek, D. Dzúrová

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The industry constitutes a dominant economic sector in Czechia. The automotive industry represents the most important industrial sector in terms of gross value added and the number of employees. The objective of this study was to analyse the occurrence of occupational diseases (OD) in the automotive industry in Czechia during the 2001-2014 period. Whereas the occurrence of OD in other sectors has generally been decreasing, it has been increasing in the automotive industry, including growing spatial discrepancies. Data on OD cases were retrieved from the National Registry of Occupational Diseases. Further, we conducted a survey in automotive companies with a focus on occupational health services and positions of the companies in global production networks (GPNs). An analysis of OD distribution in the automotive industry was performed (age, gender, company size and its role in GPNs, regional distribution of studied companies, and regional unemployment rate), and was accompanied by an assessment of the quality and range of occupational health services. The employees older than 40 years had nearly 2.5 times higher probability of OD occurrence compared with employees younger than 40 years (OR 2.41; 95% CI: 2.05-2.85). The OD occurrence probability was 3 times higher for women than for men (OR 3.01; 95 % CI: 2.55-3.55). The OD incidence rate was increasing with the size of the company. An association between the OD incidence and the unemployment rate was not confirmed.

Keywords: occupational diseases, automotive industry, health geography, unemployment

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Rakiya Abba

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This paper investigates the effect of the money supply, exchange and interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between GDP, money supply, the exchange, and interest rate. The results of unit root suggest that all the variables in the model are stationary at 1, 5 and 10 percent level of significance, and the results of Causality suggest that money supply and exchange granger cause IR, the result further reveals two – way causation existed between M2 and EXR while IR granger cause GDP the null hypothesis is rejected and GDP does not granger cause IR as indicated by their probability values of 0.4805 and confirmed by F-statistics values of 0.75483. The results revealed that M2 and EXR do not granger causes GDP, the null hypothesis is accepted at 75percent 18percent respectively as indicated by their probability values of 0.7472 and 0.1830 respectively; also, GDP does not granger cause M2 and EXR. The Johansen cointegration result indicates that despite GDP does not granger cause M2, IR, and EXR, but there existed 1 cointegrating equation, implying the existence of long-run relationship between GDP, M2 IR, and EXR. A major policy implication of this result is that economic growth is function of and money supply and exchange rate, effective monetary policies should direct on manipulating instruments and importance should be placed on justification for adopting a particular policy be rationalized in order to increase growth in economy

Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, causality

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Authors: Vilasinee Jintalikhitdee, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the level of democratic political culture and the factors that affect the democratic political culture of 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics which are Independent Samples T-test (T-test) and One-Way ANOVA (F-test). The researcher also collected data by interviewing the target groups, and then analyzed the data by the use of descriptive analysis. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok have exposed to democratic political culture at high level in overall. When considering each part, it found out that the part that has highest mean is “the constitutional democratic governmental system is suitable for Thailand” statement. The part with the lowest mean is “corruption (cheat and defraud) is normal in Thai society” statement. The factor that affects democratic political culture is grade levels, occupations of mothers, and attention in news and political movements.

Keywords: democratic, political culture, political movements, democratic governmental system

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Authors: Cláudia Alcoforado, Anabela Ribeiro

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This paper is part of an ongoing PhD thesis. It seeks to develop a model to identify the spatial failures of the public transportation supply. In the construction of the model, it also seeks to detect the social needs arising from the disadvantage in transport. The case study is carried out for the Brazilian city of Recife. Currently, Recife has a population density of 7,039.64 inhabitants per km². Unfortunately, only 46.9% of urban households on public roads have adequate urbanization. Allied to this reality, the trend of the occupation of the poorest population is that of the peripheries, a fact that has been consolidated in Brazil and Latin America, thus burdening the families' income, since the greater the distances covered for the basic activities and consequently also the transport costs. In this way, there have been great impacts caused by the supply of public transportation to locations with low demand or lack of urban infrastructure. The model under construction uses methods such as Currie’s Gap Assessment associated with the London’s Public Transport Access Level, and the Public Transport Accessibility Index developed by Saghapour. It is intended to present the stage of the thesis with the spatial/need gaps of the neighborhoods of Recife already detected. The benefits of the geographic information system are used in this paper. It should be noted that gaps are determined from the transport supply indices. In this case, considering the presence of walking catchment areas. Still in relation to the detection of gaps, the relevant demand index is also determined. This, in turn, is calculated through indicators that reflect social needs. With the use of the smaller Brazilian geographical unit, the census sector, the model with the inclusion of population density in the study areas should present more consolidated results. Based on the results achieved, an analysis of transportation disadvantage will be carried out as a factor of social exclusion in the study area. It is anticipated that the results obtained up to the present moment, already indicate a strong trend of public transportation in areas of higher income classes, leading to the understanding that the most disadvantaged population migrates to those neighborhoods in search of employment.

Keywords: gap assessment, public transport supply, social exclusion, spatial gaps

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Authors: A. T. Kassem

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Fires areconsidered a common hazardous action that any building may face. Most buildings’ structural elements are designed, taking into consideration precautions for fire safety, using deterministic design approaches. Public and highly important buildings are commonly designed considering standard fire rating and, in many cases, contain large compartments with central domes. Real fire scenarios are not commonly brought into action in structural design of buildings because of complexities in both scenarios and analysis tools. This paper presents a modern approach towards analysis of spherical domes in real fire condition via implementation of building information modelling, and adopting a probabilistic approach. BIMhas been implemented to bridge the gap between various software packages enabling them to function interactively to model both real fire and corresponding structural response. Ventilation controlled fires scenarios have been modeled using both “Revit” and “Pyrosim”. Monte Carlo simulation has been adopted to engage the probabilistic analysis approach in dealing with various parameters. Conclusions regarding failure probability and fire endurance, in addition to the effects of various parameters, have been extracted.

Keywords: concrete, spherical domes, ventilation controlled fires, BIM, monte carlo simulation, pyrosim, revit

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Authors: Emmanuel Pedler, Elena Raevskikh, Maxime Jaffré

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Can the cultural geography of European cities be durably managed by European policies? To answer this question, two hypotheses can be proposed. (1) Either European cultural policies are able to erase cultural inequalities between the territories through the creation of new areas of cultural attractiveness in each beneficiary neighborhood, city or country. Or, (2) each European region historically rooted in a number of endogenous socio-historical, political or demographic factors is not receptive to exogenous political influences. Thus, the cultural attractiveness of a territory is difficult to measure and to impact by top-down policies in the long term. How do these two logics - European and local - interact and contribute to the emergence of a valued, popular sense of a common European cultural identity? Does this constant interaction between historical backgrounds and new political concepts encourage a positive identification with the European project? The European cultural policy programs, such as ECC (European Capital of Culture), seek to develop new forms of civic cohesion through inclusive and participative cultural events. The cultural assets of a city elected ‘ECC’ are mobilized to attract a wide range of new audiences, including populations poorly integrated into local cultural life – and consequently distant from pre-existing cultural offers. In the current context of increasingly heterogeneous individual perceptions of Europe, the ECC program aims to promote cultural forms and institutions that should accelerate both territorial and cross-border European cohesion. The new cultural consumption pattern is conceived to stimulate integration and mobility, but also to create a legitimate and transnational ideal European citizen type. Our comparative research confronts contrasting cases of ‘European Capitals of Culture’ from the south and from the north of Europe, cities recently concerned by the ECC political mechanism and cities that were elected ECC in the past, multi-centered cultural models vs. highly centralized cultural models. We aim to explore the impacts of European policies on the urban cultural geography, but also to understand the current obstacles for its efficient implementation.

Keywords: urbanism, cultural policies, cultural institutions, european cultural capitals, heritage industries, exclusion effects

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Authors: Mohammad Shoaib Khan, Abdul Sattar Bahalkani

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This research investigates the violence and their impact on SMEs in Sindh. The main objective of current research is to examine the women empowerment through women participation in small and medium enterprises in upper Sindh. The data were collected from 500 respondents from Kandhkot District, by using simple random technique. A structural questionnaire was designed as an instrument for measuring the impact of SMEs business in women empowerment in rural Sindh. It was revealed that the rural women is less confident and their husbands were always given them hard time once they are exposing themselves to outside the boundaries of the house. It was revealed that rural women have a major contribution in social, economic, and political development. It was further revealed that women are getting low wages and due to non-availability of market facility they are paying low wages. The negative impact of husbands’ income and having children at the age of 0-6 years old are also significant. High income of other household member raises the reservation wage of mothers, thus lowers the probability of participation when the objective of working is to help family’s financial need. The impact of childcare on mothers’ labor force participation is significant but not as the theory predicted. The probability of participation in labor force is significantly higher for women who lived in the urban areas where job opportunities are greater compared to the rural.

Keywords: empowerment, violence against women, SMEs, rural

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

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The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

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Authors: Mohammed Wadi, Bedri Kekezoglu, Mustafa Baysal, Mehmet Rida Tur, Abdulfetah Shobole

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This paper investigates the technical evaluation of the wind potential for present and future investments in Turkey taking into account the feasibility of sites, installments, operation, and maintenance. This evaluation based on the hourly measured wind speed data for the three years 2008–2010 at 30 m height for Çatalca district. These data were obtained from national meteorology station in Istanbul–Republic of Turkey are analyzed in order to evaluate the feasibility of wind power potential and to assure supreme assortment of wind turbines installing for the area of interest. Furthermore, the data are extrapolated and analyzed at 60 m and 80 m regarding the variability of roughness factor. Weibull bi-parameter probability function is used to approximate monthly and annually wind potential and power density based on three calculation methods namely, the approximated, the graphical and the energy pattern factor methods. The annual mean wind power densities were to be 400.31, 540.08 and 611.02 W/m² for 30, 60, and 80 m heights respectively. Simulation results prove that the analyzed area is an appropriate place for constructing large-scale wind farms.

Keywords: wind potential in Turkey, Weibull bi-parameter probability function, the approximated method, the graphical method, the energy pattern factor method, capacity factor

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: I. Diamant, R. Srouji

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Applicant perceptions are attitudes, feelings, and cognitions which individuals have about selection procedures and have been mostly studied in the context of personnel selection. The main aim of the present study is to expand the understanding of applicant perceptions, using the framework of Organizational Justice Theory, in the domain of selection for higher education. The secondary aim is to explore the relationships between individual differences in social anxiety and applicants’ perceptions. The selection process is an accept/reject situation; it was hypothesized that applicants with higher social anxiety would experience negative perceptions and a lower success estimation, especially when subjected to social interaction elements in the process (interview and group simulation). Also, the effects of prior preparation and post-process explanations offered at the end of the selection process were explored. One hundred sixty psychology M.A. program applicants participated in this research, and following the selection process completed questionnaires measuring social anxiety, social exclusion, ratings on several justice dimensions for each of the methods in the selection process, feelings of success, and self-estimation of compatibility. About half of the applicants also received explanations regarding the significance and the aims of the selection process. Results provided support for most of our hypotheses: applicants with higher social anxiety experienced an increased level of social exclusion in the selection process, perceived the selection as less fair and ended with a lower feeling of success relative to those applicants without social anxiety. These relationships were especially salient in the selection procedures which included social interaction. Additionally, preparation for the selection process was positively related to the favorable perception of fairness in the selection process. Finally, contrary to our hypothesis, it was found that explanations did not affect the applicant’s perceptions. The results enhance our understanding of which factors affect applicant perceptions in applicants to higher education studies and contribute uniquely to the understanding of the effect of social anxiety on different aspects of selection experienced by applicants. The findings clearly show that some individuals may be predisposed to react unfavorably to certain selection situations. In an age of increasing awareness towards fairness in evaluation and selection and hiring procedures, these findings may be of relevance and may contribute to the design of future personnel selection methods in general and of higher education selection in particular.

Keywords: applicant perceptions, selection and assessment, organizational justice theory, social anxiety

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