Search results for: discount utility model

Authors: Megha Chavda, Parth Thummar, Rahul Ghetia

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This paper presents the voltage and current control of microgrid accompanied by the synchronization of microgrid with the main utility grid in both islanded and grid-connected modes. Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) satisfy the wide-spread power demand of consumer by behaving as a micro source for a low voltage (LV) grid or microgrid. Synchronization of the microgrid with the main utility grid is done using PLL and PWM gate pulse generation technique is used for the Voltage Source Converter. Potential Function method achieves the voltage and current control of this microgrid in both islanded and grid-connected modes. A low voltage grid consisting of three distributed generators (DG) is considered for the study and is simulated in time-domain using PSCAD/EMTDC software. The simulation results depict the appropriateness of voltage and current control of microgrid and synchronization of microgrid with the medium voltage (MV) grid.

Keywords: microgrid, distributed energy resources, voltage and current control, voltage source converter, pulse width modulation, phase locked loop

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Authors: M. Benjamin Stacey

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Energy efficiency has been increasingly recognized as a high value resource through state policies that require utility companies to implement efficiency programs. While policymakers have recognized the statewide economic, environmental, and health related value to residents who rely on this grid supplied resource, varying interests in energy efficiency between socioeconomic groups stands undifferentiated in most state legislation. Instead, the benefits are oftentimes assumed to be distributed equitably across these groups. Despite this fact, these policies are frequently sited by advocacy groups, regulatory bodies and utility companies for their ability to address the negative financial, health and other social impacts of energy poverty in low income communities. Yet, while most states like Michigan require programs that target low income consumers, oftentimes no requirements exist for the equitable investment and energy savings for low income consumers, nor does it stipulate minimal spending levels on low income programs. To further understand the impact of the absence of these factors in legislation, this study examines the distribution of program funds and energy efficiency savings to answer a fundamental energy justice concern; Are there disparities in the investment and benefits of energy efficiency programs between socioeconomic groups? This study compiles data covering the history of Michigan’s Energy Efficiency policy implementation from 2010-2016, analyzing the energy efficiency portfolios of Michigan’s two main energy providers. To make accurate comparisons between these two energy providers' investments and energy savings in low and non-low income programs, the socioeconomic variation for each utility coverage area was captured and accounted for using GIS and US Census data. Interestingly, this study found that both providers invested more equitably in natural gas efficiency programs, however, together these providers invested roughly three times less per household in low income electricity efficiency programs, which resulted in ten times less electricity savings per household. This study also compares variation in commission approved utility plans and actual spending and savings results, with varying patterns pointing to differing portfolio management strategies between companies. This study reveals that for the history of the implementation of Michigan’s Energy Efficiency Policy, that the 35% of Michigan’s population who qualify as low income have received substantially disproportionate funding and energy savings because of the policy. This study provides an overview of results from a social perspective, raises concerns about the impact on energy poverty and equity between consumer groups and is an applicable tool for law makers, regulatory agencies, utility portfolio managers, and advocacy groups concerned with addressing issues related to energy poverty.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy justice, low income, state policy

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Authors: Bojana Ž. Bajić, Damjan G. Vučurović, Siniša N. Dodić, Jovana A. Grahovac, Jelena M. Dodić

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Biosynthesis of xanthan, a microbial polysaccharide produced by Xanthomonas campestris, is characterized by the possibility of using non-specific carbohydrate substrates, which means different waste effluents can be used as a basis for the production media. Potential raw material sources for xanthan production come from industries with large amounts of waste effluents that are rich in compounds necessary for microorganism growth and multiplication. Taking into account the amount of waste effluents generated by the bioethanol industry and the fact that it contains a high inorganic and organic load it is clear that they represent a potential environmental pollutants if not properly treated. For this reason, it is necessary to develop new technologies which use wastes and wastewaters of one industry as raw materials for another industry. The result is not only a new product, but also reduction of pollution and environmental protection. Biotechnological production of xanthan, which consists of using biocatalysts to convert the bioethanol waste effluents into a high-value product, presents a possibility for sustainable development. This research uses scientific software developed for the modeling of biotechnological processes in order to design a xanthan production plant from bioethanol production waste effluents as raw material. The model was developed using SuperPro Designer® by using input data such as the composition of raw materials and products, defining unit operations, utility consumptions, etc., while obtaining capital and operating costs and the revenues from products to create a baseline production plant model. Results from this baseline model can help in the development of novel biopolymer production technologies. Additionally, a detailed economic analysis showed that this process for converting waste effluents into a high value product is economically viable. Therefore, the proposed model represents a useful tool for scaling up the process from the laboratory or pilot plant to a working industrial scale plant.

Keywords: biotechnology, process model, xanthan, waste effluents

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Authors: Julius Adebayo John

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The objective of this study is to compare the use of medicinal plants and Conventional medicine intervention in the management of HBV among Ibadan populace. A purposive sampling technique was used to administer questionnaires at 2 places, namely, the University College Hospital and Total Healthcare Diagnostic Centre, Ibadan, where viral loads are carried out. A EuroQol (EQ – 5D) was adopted to collect data. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed. Also, ANOVA, Correlation, charts, and tables were used. Findings revealed a high prevalence of HBV among female respondents and sample between ages 26years to 50years. Results showed that the majority discovered their health status through free HBV tests. Analysis indicated that the use of medicinal plant extract is cost-effective in 73% of cases. Rank order utility derived from medicinal plants is higher than other interventions. Correlation analysis performed for the current health status of respondents were significant at P<0.01 against the intervention management adopted (0.046), cost of treatment (0.549), utility (0.407) at P<0.00, duration of the treatment (0.604) at P<0.01; viral load before treatment (-0.142) not significant at P<0.01, the R2 (72.2%) showed the statistical variance in respondents current health status as explained by the independent variables. Respondents gained quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of between 1year to 3years. Suggestions were made for a public-private partnership effort against HBV with emphasis on periodic screening, viral load test subsidy, and free vaccination of people with –HBV status. Promoting phytomedicine through intensive research with strong regulation of herbal practitioners will go a long way in alleviating the burdens of the disease in society.

Keywords: medicinal plant, HBV management interventions, utility, QALYs, ibadan metropolis

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility, MPT

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Authors: Loris Franchi, Daniele Calvi, Sabrina Corpino

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This paper presents a design methodology in which stakeholders are assisted with the exploration of a so-called negotiation space, aiming to the maximization of both group social welfare and single stakeholder’s perceived utility. The outcome results in less design iterations needed for design convergence while obtaining a higher solution effectiveness. During the early stage of a space project, not only the knowledge about the system but also the decision outcomes often are unknown. The scenario is exacerbated by the fact that decisions taken in this stage imply delayed costs associated with them. Hence, it is necessary to have a clear definition of the problem under analysis, especially in the initial definition. This can be obtained thanks to a robust generation and exploration of design alternatives. This process must consider that design usually involves various individuals, who take decisions affecting one another. An effective coordination among these decision-makers is critical. Finding mutual agreement solution will reduce the iterations involved in the design process. To handle this scenario, the paper proposes a design methodology which, aims to speed-up the process of pushing the mission’s concept maturity level. This push up is obtained thanks to a guided negotiation space exploration, which involves autonomously exploration and optimization of trade opportunities among stakeholders via Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The negotiation space is generated via a multidisciplinary collaborative optimization method, infused by game theory and multi-attribute utility theory. In particular, game theory is able to model the negotiation process to reach the equilibria among stakeholder needs. Because of the huge dimension of the negotiation space, a collaborative optimization framework with evolutionary algorithm has been integrated in order to guide the game process to efficiently and rapidly searching for the Pareto equilibria among stakeholders. At last, the concept of utility constituted the mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs, using the elicited and modeled needs to evaluate a multitude of alternatives. To highlight the benefits of the proposed methodology, the paper presents the design of a CubeSat mission for the observation of lunar radiation environment. The derived solution results able to balance all stakeholders needs and guaranteeing the effectiveness of the selection mission concept thanks to its robustness in valuable changeability. The benefits provided by the proposed design methodology are highlighted, and further development proposed.

Keywords: concurrent engineering, artificial intelligence, negotiation in engineering design, multidisciplinary optimization

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Authors: Minho Lee, Donghyun Back, Jaemoon Jung, Woojin Park

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The current 3-dimensional (3D) posture prediction models commonly provide only a few optimal postures to achieve a specific objective. The problem with such models is that they are incapable of rapidly providing several optimal posture candidates according to various situations. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a 3D memory-based posture planning (3D MBPP) model, which is a new digital human model that can analyze the feasible postures in 3D space for reaching tasks that have postural constraints and specific reaching space. The 3D MBPP model can be applied to the types of works that are done with constrained working postures and have specific reaching space. The examples of such works include driving an excavator, driving automobiles, painting buildings, working at an office, pitching/batting, and boxing. For these types of works, a limited amount of space is required to store all of the feasible postures, as the hand reaches boundary can be determined prior to perform the task. This prevents computation time from increasing exponentially, which has been one of the major drawbacks of memory-based posture planning model in 3D space. This paper validates the utility of 3D MBPP model using a practical example of analyzing baseball batting posture. In baseball, batters swing with both feet fixed to the ground. This motion is appropriate for use with the 3D MBPP model since the player must try to hit the ball when the ball is located inside the strike zone (a limited area) in a constrained posture. The results from the analysis showed that the stored and the optimal postures vary depending on the ball’s flying path, the hitting location, the batter’s body size, and the batting objective. These results can be used to establish the optimal postural strategies for achieving the batting objective and performing effective hitting. The 3D MBPP model can also be applied to various domains to determine the optimal postural strategies and improve worker comfort.

Keywords: baseball, memory-based, posture prediction, reaching area, 3D digital human models

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Authors: Amit Kumar

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Accurate identification of deteriorated air quality regions is very helpful in devising better environmental practices and mitigation efforts. In the present study, an attempt has been made to identify the air pollutant dispersion patterns especially NOX due to vehicular and industrial sources over a rapidly developing urban city, Visakhapatnam (17°42’ N, 83°20’ E), India, during April 2009. Using the emission factors of different vehicles as well as the industry, a high resolution 1 km x 1 km gridded emission inventory has been developed for Visakhapatnam city. A dispersion model AERMOD with explicit representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics and offline coupled through a developed coupler mechanism with a high resolution mesoscale model WRF-ARW resolution for simulating the dispersion patterns of NOX is used in the work. The meteorological as well as PBL parameters obtained by employing two PBL schemes viz., non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and local Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) of WRF-ARW model, which are reasonably representing the boundary layer parameters are considered for integrating AERMOD. Significantly different dispersion patterns of NOX have been noticed between summer and winter months. The simulated NOX concentration is validated with available six monitoring stations of Central Pollution Control Board, India. Statistical analysis of model evaluated concentrations with the observations reveals that WRF-ARW of YSU scheme with AERMOD has shown better performance. The deteriorated air quality locations are identified over Visakhapatnam based on the validated model simulations of NOX concentrations. The present study advocates the utility of tNumerical Simulation of Air Pollutant Using Coupled AERMOD-WRF Modeling System over Visakhapatnam: A Case Studyhe developed gridded emission inventory of NOX with coupled WRF-AERMOD modeling system for air quality assessment over the study region.

Keywords: WRF-ARW, AERMOD, planetary boundary layer, air quality

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Authors: Deepak Choudhary

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COEP-Microgrid, a project by the students of College of Engineering Pune aims at establishing a micro grid in the college campus serving as a living laboratory for research and development of novel grid technologies. Proposed micro grid has an AC-bus and DC-bus, interconnected together with a tie line DC-AC converter. In grid-connected mode AC bus of microgrid is synchronized with utility grid. Synchronization with utility grid requires grid and AC bus to have synchronism in frequency, phase sequence and voltage. Power flow requires phase difference between grid and AC bus. Control System is required to effectively regulate power flow between the grid and AC bus. The grid synchronizing control system is composed of frequency and phase control for regulated power flow and voltage control system for reduction of reactive power flow. The control system involves automatic active power flow control. It takes the feedback of DC link Capacitor and changes the power angle accordingly. Control system incorporating voltage, phase and power control was developed for grid-tie inverter. This paper discusses the design, simulation and practical implementation of control system described in various micro grid scenarios.

Keywords: microgrid, Grid-tie inverter, voltage control, automatic power control

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Authors: Monika Sobolewska, Aleksandra Majchrzak, Bartlomiej Chojnacki, Katarzyna Baruch, Adam Pilch

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The main purpose of the study is to perform the measurement and analysis of noise harmfulness in public utility facilities. The World Health Organization reports that the number of people suffering from hearing impairment is constantly increasing. The most alarming is the number of young people occurring in the statistics. The majority of scientific research in the field of hearing protection and noise prevention concern industrial and road traffic noise as the source of health problems. As the result, corresponding standards and regulations defining noise level limits are enforced. However, there is another field uncovered by profound research – leisure time. Public utility facilities such as clubs, shopping malls, sport facilities or concert halls – they all generate high-level noise, being out of proper juridical control. Among European Union Member States, the highest legislative act concerning noise prevention is the Environmental Noise Directive 2002/49/EC. However, it omits the problem discussed above and even for traffic, railway and aircraft noise it does not set limits or target values, leaving these issues to the discretion of the Member State authorities. Without explicit and uniform regulations, noise level control at places designed for relaxation and entertainment is often in the responsibility of people having little knowledge of hearing protection, unaware of the risk the noise pollution poses. Exposure to high sound levels in clubs, cinemas, at concerts and sports events may result in a progressive hearing loss, especially among young people, being the main target group of such facilities and events. The first step to change this situation and to raise the general awareness is to perform reliable measurements the results of which will emphasize the significance of the problem. This project presents the results of more than hundred measurements, performed in most types of public utility facilities in Poland. As the most suitable measuring instrument for such a research, personal noise dosimeters were used to collect the data. Each measurement is presented in the form of numerical results including equivalent and peak sound pressure levels and a detailed description considering the type of the sound source, size and furnishing of the room and the subjective sound level evaluation. In the absence of a straight reference point for the interpretation of the data, the limits specified in EU Directive 2003/10/EC were used for comparison. They set the maximum sound level values for workers in relation to their working time length. The analysis of the examined problem leads to the conclusion that during leisure time, people are exposed to noise levels significantly exceeding safe values. As the hearing problems are gradually progressing, most people underplay the problem, ignoring the first symptoms. Therefore, an effort has to be made to specify the noise regulations for public utility facilities. Without any action, in the foreseeable future the majority of Europeans will be dealing with serious hearing damage, which will have a negative impact on the whole societies.

Keywords: hearing protection, noise level limits, noise prevention, noise regulations, public utility facilities

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Authors: Huynh Viet Khai, Mitsuyasu Yabe

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The study investigated the economic value of biodiversity attributes that could provide policy-makers reliable information to estimate welfare losses due to biodiversity reductions and analyse the trade-off between biodiversity and economics. In order to obtain the non-market benefits of biodiversity conservation, an indirect utility function and willingness to pay for biodiversity attributes were applied using the approach of choice modelling with the analysis of conditional logit model. The study found that Mekong Delta residents accepted their willingness to pay for VND 913 monthly for a one percent increase in healthy vegetation, VND 360 for an additional mammal species and VND 2,440 to avoid the welfare losses of 100 local farmers.

Keywords: choice modelling, genetic resources, wetland conservation, marginal willingness to pay

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

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In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, rank estimates, variogram

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Authors: Umit Cali

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The integration of intermittent energy sources like wind farms into the electricity grid has become an important challenge for the utilization and control of electric power systems, because of the fluctuating behaviour of wind power generation. Wind power predictions improve the economic and technical integration of large amounts of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Trading, balancing, grid operation, controllability and safety issues increase the importance of predicting power output from wind power operators. Therefore, wind power forecasting systems have to be integrated into the monitoring and control systems of the transmission system operator (TSO) and wind farm operators/traders. The wind forecasts are relatively precise for the time period of only a few hours, and, therefore, relevant with regard to Spot and Intraday markets. In this work predictive data mining techniques are applied to identify a statistical and neural network model or set of models that can be used to predict wind power output of large onshore and offshore wind farms. These advanced data analytic methods helps us to amalgamate the information in very large meteorological, oceanographic and SCADA data sets into useful information and manageable systems. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. This study is also dedicated to an in-depth consideration of issues such as the comparison of day ahead and the short-term wind power forecasting results, determination of the accuracy of the wind power prediction and the evaluation of the energy economic and technical benefits of wind power forecasting.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, wind power, forecasting, data mining, big data, artificial intelligence, energy economics, power trading, power grids

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Authors: Chia-Ling Li

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The scope of this article includes the production of 10,000 metric tons of non-phthalate per annum. The production process will include hydrogenation, separation, purification, and recycling of unprocessed feedstock. Based on experimental data, conversion and selectivity were chosen as reaction model parameters. The synthesis and separation processes of non-phthalate and phthalate were established by using Aspen Plus software. The article will be divided into six parts: estimation of physical properties, integration of production processes, purification case study, utility consumption, economic feasibility study and identification of bottlenecks. The purities of products was higher than 99.9 wt. %. Process parameters have important guiding significance to the commercialization of hydrogenation of phthalate.

Keywords: economic analysis, hydrogenation, non-phthalate, process simulation

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Authors: Yuguang Gao, Mingtao Deng

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The integration of independently operating hospitals into a unified healthcare service system has become a strategic imperative in the pursuit of hospitals’ high-quality development. Central to the concept of group governance over such transformation, exemplified by a collaborative medical alliance, is the delineation of shared value, vision, and goals. Given the inherent disparity in capabilities among hospitals within the alliance, particularly in the treatment of different diseases characterized by Disease Related Groups (DRG) in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and resource utilization, this study aims to address the centralized decision-making of intra-hospital patient referral within the medical alliance to enhance the overall production and quality of service provided. We first introduce the notion of production utility, where a higher production utility for a hospital implies better performance in treating patients diagnosed with that specific DRG group of diseases. Then, a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) framework is established for patient referral among hospitals, where patient flow modeling incorporates a queueing system with fixed capacities for each hospital. The simulation study begins with a two-member alliance. The pivotal strategy examined is a "whether-to-refer" decision triggered when the bed usage rate surpasses a predefined threshold for either hospital. Then, the decision encompasses referring patients to the other hospital based on DRG groups’ production utility differentials as well as bed availability. The objective is to maximize the total production utility of the alliance while minimizing patients’ average length of stay and turnover rate. Thus the parameter under scrutiny is the bed usage rate threshold, influencing the efficacy of the referral strategy. Extending the study to a three-member alliance, which could readily be generalized to multi-member alliances, we maintain the core setup while introducing an additional “which-to-refer" decision that involves referring patients with specific DRG groups to the member hospital according to their respective production utility rankings. The overarching goal remains consistent, for which the bed usage rate threshold is once again a focal point for analysis. For the two-member alliance scenario, our simulation results indicate that the optimal bed usage rate threshold hinges on the discrepancy in the number of beds between member hospitals, the distribution of DRG groups among incoming patients, and variations in production utilities across hospitals. Transitioning to the three-member alliance, we observe similar dependencies on these parameters. Additionally, it becomes evident that an imbalanced distribution of DRG diagnoses and further disparity in production utilities among member hospitals may lead to an increase in the turnover rate. In general, it was found that the intra-hospital referral mechanism enhances the overall production utility of the medical alliance compared to individual hospitals without partnership. Patients’ average length of stay is also reduced, showcasing the positive impact of the collaborative approach. However, the turnover rate exhibits variability based on parameter setups, particularly when patients are redirected within the alliance. In conclusion, the re-structuring of diagnostic disease groups within the medical alliance proves instrumental in improving overall healthcare service outcomes, providing a compelling rationale for the government's promotion of patient referrals within collaborative medical alliances.

Keywords: collaborative medical alliance, disease related group, patient referral, simulation

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Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

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There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Sivilai Jayankura

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This research aims to study the religious economic behavior that effect the lifestyle of the people in Dusit area. The result shows that religious identity salience makes people increase contributions to public goods. Most of the Buddhism decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. We find no evidence of religious identity salience effects on disutility of work effort, discount rates or generosity in life spending. Mostly the people like to make merit in the temple during special day of religion. The atmosphere in the temple leads the people like to travel and merit at the temple near their home.

Keywords: Dusit province, identity, lifestyle, religious economic behavior

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Authors: Abdulaziz Afandi

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: neural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: Le Kang

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On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Jun Won Kim

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Objective: Theta-phase gamma-amplitude coupling (TGC) was used as a novel evidence-based tool to reflect the dysfunctional cortico-thalamic interaction in patients with schizophrenia. However, to our best knowledge, no studies have reported the diagnostic utility of the TGC in the resting-state electroencephalographic (EEG) of neuroleptic-naive patients with schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. Thus, the purpose of this EEG study was to understand the underlying mechanisms in patients with schizophrenia by comparing the TGC at rest between two groups and to evaluate the diagnostic utility of TGC. Method: The subjects included 90 patients with schizophrenia and 90 healthy controls. All patients were diagnosed with schizophrenia according to the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) by two independent psychiatrists using semi-structured clinical interviews. Because patients were either drug-naïve (first episode) or had not been taking psychoactive drugs for one month before the study, we could exclude the influence of medications. Five frequency bands were defined for spectral analyses: delta (1–4 Hz), theta (4–8 Hz), slow alpha (8–10 Hz), fast alpha (10–13.5 Hz), beta (13.5–30 Hz), and gamma (30-80 Hz). The spectral power of the EEG data was calculated with fast Fourier Transformation using the 'spectrogram.m' function of the signal processing toolbox in Matlab. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed to compare the TGC results between the groups, which were adjusted using a Bonferroni correction (P < 0.05/19 = 0.0026). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to examine the discriminating ability of the TGC data for schizophrenia diagnosis. Results: The patients with schizophrenia showed a significant increase in the resting-state TGC at all electrodes. The delta, theta, slow alpha, fast alpha, and beta powers showed low accuracies of 62.2%, 58.4%, 56.9%, 60.9%, and 59.0%, respectively, in discriminating the patients with schizophrenia from the healthy controls. The ROC analysis performed on the TGC data generated the most accurate result among the EEG measures, displaying an overall classification accuracy of 92.5%. Conclusion: As TGC includes phase, which contains information about neuronal interactions from the EEG recording, TGC is expected to be useful for understanding the mechanisms the dysfunctional cortico-thalamic interaction in patients with schizophrenia. The resting-state TGC value was increased in the patients with schizophrenia compared to that in the healthy controls and had a higher discriminating ability than the other parameters. These findings may be related to the compensatory hyper-arousal patterns of the dysfunctional default-mode network (DMN) in schizophrenia. Further research exploring the association between TGC and medical or psychiatric conditions that may confound EEG signals will help clarify the potential utility of TGC.

Keywords: quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG), theta-phase gamma-amplitude coupling (TGC), schizophrenia, diagnostic utility

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Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

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The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

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Authors: Simone Tedeschi, Francesco Crespi, Paolo Liberati, Massimo Paradiso, Antonio Sciala

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This paper aims at contributing to the understanding of smokers’ responses to cigarette prices increases with a focus on heterogeneity, both across individuals and price levels. To do this, a stated preference quasi-experimental design grounded in a random utility framework is proposed to evaluate the effect on smokers’ utility of the price level and variation, along with social conditioning and health impact perception. The analysis is based on individual-level data drawn from a unique survey gathering very detailed information on Italian smokers’ habits. In particular, qualitative information on the individual reactions triggered by changes in prices of different magnitude and composition are exploited. The main findings stemming from the analysis are the following; the average price elasticity of cigarette consumption is comparable with previous estimates for advanced economies (-.32). However, the decomposition of this result across five latent-classes of smokers, reveals extreme heterogeneity in terms of price responsiveness, implying a potential price elasticity that ranges between 0.05 to almost 1. Such heterogeneity is in part explained by observable characteristics such as age, income, gender, education as well as (current and lagged) smoking intensity. Moreover, price responsiveness is far from being independent from the size of the prospected price increase. Finally, by comparing even and uneven price variations, it is shown that uniform across-brand price increases are able to limit the scope of product substitutions and downgrade. Estimated price-response heterogeneity has significant implications for tax policy. Among them, first, it provides evidence and a rationale for why the aggregate price elasticity is likely to follow a strictly increasing pattern as a function of the experienced price variation. This information is crucial for forecasting the effect of a given tax-driven price change on tax revenue. Second, it provides some guidance on how to design excise tax reforms to balance public health and revenue goals.

Keywords: smoking behaviour, preference heterogeneity, price responsiveness, cigarette taxation, random utility models

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Authors: Shanshan Zhou, Massimo Battaglia

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Identity plays a critical role when an organization faces disasters. Individuals reflect on their working identities and identify themselves with the group and the organization, which facilitate collective sensemaking under crisis situations and enable coordinated actions to respond to and recover from disasters. In addition, an organization’s identity links it to its regional community, which fosters the mobilization of resources and contributes to rapid recovery. However, identity is also problematic for disaster prevention because of its persistence. An organization’s ego-defenses system prohibits the rethink of its identity and a rigid identity obstructs disaster prevention. This research aims to tackle the ‘problem’ of identity by study in-depth a case of an Italian multi–utility which experienced the 2012 Northern Italy earthquakes. Collecting data from 11 interviews with top managers and key players in the local community and archived materials, we find that the earthquakes triggered the rethink of the organization’s identity, which got reinforced afterward. This research highlighted the importance of identity in disaster response and recovery. More importantly, it explored the solution of overcoming the barrier of ego-defense that is to transform the organization into a learning organization which constantly rethinks its identity.

Keywords: community identity, disaster, identity, organizational learning

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

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Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Sanjeev Prasher, T. Sai Vijay, Chandan Parsad, Abhishek Banerjee, Sahakari Nikhil Krishna, Subham Chatterjee

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With rapid rise in internet retailing, the industry is set for a major implosion. Due to the little difference among competitors, companies find it difficult to segment and target the right shoppers. The objective of the study is to segment Indian online shoppers on the basis of the factors – website characteristics and shopping values. Together, these cover extrinsic and intrinsic factors that affect shoppers as they visit web retailers. Data were collected using questionnaire from 319 Indian online shoppers, and factor analysis was used to confirm the factors influencing the shoppers in their selection of web portals. Thereafter, cluster analysis was applied, and different segments of shoppers were identified. The relationship between income groups and online shoppers’ segments was tracked using correspondence analysis. Significant findings from the study include that web entertainment and informativeness together contribute more than fifty percent of the total influence on the web shoppers. Contrary to general perception that shoppers seek utilitarian leverages, the present study highlights the preference for fun, excitement, and entertainment during browsing of the website. Four segments namely Information Seekers, Utility Seekers, Value Seekers and Core Shoppers were identified and profiled. Value seekers emerged to be the most dominant segment with two-fifth of the respondents falling for hedonic as well as utilitarian shopping values. With overlap among the segments, utilitarian shopping value garnered prominence with more than fifty-eight percent of the total respondents. Moreover, a strong relation has been established between the income levels and the segments of Indian online shoppers. Web shoppers show different motives from being utility seekers to information seekers, core shoppers and finally value seekers as income levels increase. Companies can strategically use this information for target marketing and align their web portals accordingly. This study can further be used to develop models revolving around satisfaction, trust and customer loyalty.

Keywords: online shopping, shopping values, effectiveness of information content, web informativeness, web entertainment, information seekers, utility seekers, value seekers, core shoppers

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