Search results for: disaster risk reduction

Authors: Justyna Śniadach, Barbara Bętkowska Korpała, Napoleon Waszkiewicz

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The drinking reduction program is a relatively new form of therapy. A lot has changed in thinking about alcohol problems and effective ways to solve them. Until recently, alcohol consumers were divided into two groups: addicted and "normal" drinkers. In recent years, the existence of a large group of people who drink alcohol harmfully has been noticed: not addicted, but still drinking in a way that brings losses and harms to others. It turned out that most of the problems resulting from drinking alcohol are generated by people who drink harmfully and that showed that it is necessary to build a support system for these people aimed at reducing alcohol consumption. The Drinking Reduction Program currently has 3 versions. There is a Drinking Reduction Program in a standard form, where the patient works stationary, in the therapist's office. Another possibility is the patient's work on Online - Drinking Reduction Program with application in a remote form. Another possibility is the patient's work in Online- Drinking Reduction Program on-line but together with the therapist. In all of this program's exercises are based on the assumptions of behavioral-cognitive therapy and methods of motivational dialogue. The purpose of this research will be to compare three versions of Drinking Reduction Programs in terms of their effectiveness, psychological and sociological variables, as well as the level of motivation to change the drinking pattern.

Keywords: alcohol addiction, addiction therapy, drinking reduction programs, cognitive-behavioral therapy

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Authors: Frank Hespeler, Giuseppe Loiacono

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We propose measures for systemic risk generated through intra-sectorial interdependencies in the hedge fund sector. These measures are based on variations in the average cross-effects of funds showing significant interdependency between their individual returns and the moments of the sector’s return distribution. The proposed measures display a high ability to identify periods of financial distress, are robust to modifications in the underlying econometric model and are consistent with intuitive interpretation of the results.

Keywords: hedge funds, systemic risk, vector autoregressive model, risk monitoring

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Abdullah Alsaeed

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Virtualized computing and cloud computing infrastructures are no longer fuzz or marketing term. They are a core reality in today’s corporate Information Technology (IT) organizations. Hence, developing an effective and efficient methodologies for data backup and data recovery is required more than any time. The purpose of data backup and recovery techniques are to assist the organizations to strategize the business continuity and disaster recovery approaches. In order to accomplish this strategic objective, a variety of mechanism were proposed in the recent years. This research paper will explore and examine the latest techniques and solutions to provide data backup and restoration for the cloud computing platforms.

Keywords: data backup, data recovery, cloud computing, business continuity, disaster recovery, cost-effective, data encryption.

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Transportation sector represents more than 40% of total energy consumption in Malaysia. This sector is a major user of fossils based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. Considering this fact, this paper attempts to investigate the problem of reducing CO2 emission using linear programming approach. An optimization model which is used to investigate the optimal level of CO2 emission reduction in the road transport sector is presented. In this paper, scenarios have been used to demonstrate the emission reduction model: (1) utilising alternative fuel scenario, (2) improving fuel efficiency scenario, (3) removing fuel subsidy scenario, (4) reducing demand travel, (5) optimal scenario. This study finds that fuel balancing can contribute to the reduction of the amount of CO2 emission by up to 3%. Beyond 3% emission reductions, more stringent measures that include fuel switching, fuel efficiency improvement, demand travel reduction and combination of mitigation measures have to be employed. The model revealed that the CO2 emission reduction in the road transportation can be reduced by 38.3% in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: CO2 emission, fuel consumption, optimization, linear programming, transportation sector, Malaysia

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Authors: Sarit Gideoni Cohen

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The aim of the study was to examine possible risk pathway which initiated by the distal risk factors of insecure attachment to the mother, the father and peers and then developed by means of proximal risk factors: stressful life events and emotional distress. 275 participants (aged 13-26) from high-schools, youth groups and university were requited. Twenty-two percent participants reported at least one episode of self-injury. The relationship between paternal and peer attachment were partly mediated by stressful life events and depressive symptoms. Paternal and peer attachment influences during adolescence as contributing to risk pathway for self-injury were acknowledged.

Keywords: self-injury, attachment, depression, stressful life-events, adolescence

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Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: frequency response, order of model reduction, frequency matching condition, nonlinear experimental data

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Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Jose G. Dórea, Teresa H. M. da Costa

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Objective: Epidemiological data shows an inverse association of coffee consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the clinical effects of coffee consumption on the glucose metabolism biomarkers remain controversial. Thus, this paper reviews clinical trials that evaluated the effects of coffee consumption on glucose metabolism. Research Design and Methods: We identified studies published until December 2014 by searching electronic databases and reference lists. We included randomized clinical trials which the intervention group received caffeinated and/or decaffeinated coffee and the control group received water or placebo treatments and measured biomarkers of glucose metabolism. The Jadad Score was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies whereas studies that scored ≥ 3 points were considered for the analyses. Results: Seven clinical trials (total of 237 subjects) were analyzed involving adult healthy, overweight and diabetic subjects. The studies were divided in short-term (1 to 3h) and long-term (2 to 16 weeks) duration. The results for short-term studies showed that caffeinated coffee consumption may increase the area under the curve for glucose response, while for long-term studies caffeinated coffee may improve the glycemic metabolism by reducing the glucose curve and increasing insulin response. These results seem to show that the benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term as has been shown in the reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, until the relationship between long-term coffee consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus is better understood and any mechanism involved identified, it is premature to make claims about coffee preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee may impairs glucose metabolism in short-term but in the long-term the studies indicate reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. More clinical trials with comparable methodology are needed to unravel this paradox.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

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Authors: Jasmine Latiolais

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Much of the disaster-related literature finds a positive relationship between the impact of a natural disaster and the growth of wages. Panel datasets are often used to explore these effects. However, natural disasters do not impact a single variable in the economy. Rather, natural disasters affect all facets of the economy, simultaneously, upon impact. It is difficult to control for all factors that would be influenced by the impact of a natural disaster, which can lead to lead to omitted variable bias in those studies employing panel datasets. To address this issue of omitted variable bias, an interrupted time series analysis is used to test the short-run relationship between the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on parish wage levels in Southern Louisiana, inherently controlling for economic conditions. This study provides evidence that natural disasters do increase wages in the very short term (one quarter following the impact of the hurricane) but that these results are not seen in the longer term and are not robust. In addition, the significance of the coefficients changes depending on the parish. Overall, this study finds that previous literature on this topic may not be robust when considered through a time-series lens.

Keywords: economic recovery, local economies, local wage growth, natural disasters

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Earthquake is known as one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, policy making to improve the strengthening of structures is one of the requirements of the approach to prevent and reduce the risk of the destructive effects of earthquakes. In order to choose the optimal policy in the face of earthquakes, this article tries to examine the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compare it with the costs of retrofitting. In this study, the results of adopting the scenario of "action after the earthquake" and the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before the earthquake" have been collected, calculated and finally analyzed by putting them together. Methodologically, data received from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes occurred in the geographical area of Iran, and among them, eight earthquakes have been specifically studied: Miane, Ahar and Haris, Qator, Momor, Khorasan, Damghan and Shahroud, Gohran, Hormozgan and Ezgole. The main basis of the calculations is the data obtained from retrofitting companies regarding the cost per square meter of building retrofitting and the data of the governorate regarding the power of earthquake destruction, the realized costs for the reconstruction and construction of residential units. The estimated costs have been converted to the value of 2021 using the time value of money method to enable comparison and aggregation. The cost-benefit comparison of the two policies of action after the earthquake and retrofitting before the earthquake in the eight earthquakes investigated shows that the country has suffered five thousand billion Tomans of losses due to the lack of retrofitting of buildings against earthquakes. Based on the data of the Budget Law's of Iran, this figure was approximately twice the budget of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and five times the budget of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation in 2021. The results show that the policy of retrofitting structures before an earthquake is significantly more optimal than the competing scenario. The comparison of the two policy scenarios examined in this study shows that the policy of retrofitting buildings before an earthquake, on the one hand, prevents huge losses, and on the other hand, by increasing the number of earthquake-resistant houses, it reduces the amount of earthquake destruction. In addition to other positive effects of retrofitting, such as the reduction of mortality due to earthquake resistance of buildings and the reduction of other economic and social effects caused by earthquakes. These are things that can prove the cost-effectiveness of the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before earthquakes" in Iran.

Keywords: disaster economy, earthquake economy, cost-benefit analysis, resilience

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Authors: Winai Mankhatitham

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This research investigated groundcover on the roof (green roof) which can reduce the temperature and carbon monoxide. This study is divided into 3 main aspects: 1) Types of groundcover affecting heat reduction, 2) The efficiency on heat reduction of 3 types of groundcover, i.e. lawn, arachis pintoi, and purslane, 3) Database for designing green roof. This study has been designed as an experimental research by simulating the 3 types of groundcover in 3 trays placed in the green house for recording the temperature change for 24 hours. The results showed that the groundcover with the highest heat reduction efficiency was lawn. The dense of the lawn can protect the heat transfer to the soil. For the further study, there should be a comparative study of the thickness and the types of soil to get more information for the suitable types of groundcover and the soil for designing the energy saving green roof.

Keywords: green roof, heat reduction, groundcover, energy saving

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Authors: Nafiseh Ebrahimi, Gautham Muthukumaran, Amir Jafari

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Human walking gait is considered to be the most efficient biped walking gait. There are various types of gait human follows during locomotion and arm swing is one of the most important factors which controls and differentiates human gaits. Earlier studies declared a 7% reduction in the metabolic cost due to the arm swing. In this research, we compared different types of arm swings in terms of metabolic cost reduction and then suggested, designed, fabricated and tested a quasi-passive upper body exoskeleton to study the metabolic cost reduction in the folded arm walking gate scenarios. Our experimental results validate a 10% reduction in the metabolic cost of walking aided by the application of the proposed exoskeleton.

Keywords: arm swing, MET (metabolic equivalent of a task), calorimeter, oxygen consumption, upper body quasi-passive exoskeleton

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Authors: Odey Moses Ogah, Felix Terhemba Ikyereve

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The study was carried out to analyzed risks in financing agriculture by agricultural cooperatives in Benue State, Nigeria. The study made use of research questionnaires for data collection. A multistage sampling technique was used to select a sample of 210 respondents from 21 agricultural cooperatives. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were employed in data analysis. Loan defaulting (66.7%) and reduction in savings by members (51.4%) were the major causes of risks faced by agricultural cooperatives in financing agriculture in the study area. Other causes include adverse changes in commodity prices (48.6%), disaster (45.7%), among others. It was found that risks adversely influence the profitability and competition of agricultural cooperatives (82.9%). Multiple regression analysis results showed that the coefficient of multiple determinations was 0.67, implying that the explanatory variables included in the model accounted for 67% of the variation in the level of profitability of agricultural cooperatives. The number of loans, average amount of loan and the interest rate were significant and important determinants of profitability of the cooperatives. The majority of the respondents (88.6%) made use of loan guarantors as a strategy of managing loan default/no repayment. It was found that the majority (70%) of the respondents were faced with the challenge of lack of insurance cover. The study recommends that agricultural cooperative officials should be encouraged to undergo formal training and education to easily acquire administrative skills in the management of agricultural loans; Farmer's loan size should be increased and released on time to enable them to use it effectively. Policies that enhance insuring farm activities should be put in place to discourage farmers from risk aversion.

Keywords: agriculture, analysis, cooperative, finance, risks

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Authors: Babatunde Akeem Lawal

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In any organization, the primary aim is to maximize profit, but the major challenges facing them is the increase in cost of operation because of this there is increase in cost of production that could lead to inevitable cost control and cost reduction scheme which make it difficult for most organizations to operate at the cost efficient frontier. The study aims to critically examine and evaluate the application of cost control and cost reduction in organization performance and also to review budget as an effective tool of cost control and cost reduction. A descriptive survey research was adopted. A total number of 40 respondent retrieved were used for the study. The analysis of data collected was undertaken by applying appropriate statistical tools. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis with the use of SPSS. Based on the findings; it was evident that cost control has a positive impact on organizational performance and also the style of management has a positive impact on organizational performance.

Keywords: organization, cost reduction, cost control, performance, budget, profit

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Authors: Alan (Avi) Kirschenbaum, Carmit Rapaport

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The behavior of bystanders in emergencies and disasters have been examined for over 50 years. Such acts have been cited as contributing to saving lives in terms of providing first responder help until official emergency units can arrive. Several reasons have been suggested for this type of behavior but most focused on a broad segment of individual psychological decision-making processes. Recent theoretical evidence suggests that the external factors for such bystander decisions, mainly disaster community based social contexts factors, are also important. We aim to test these competing arguments. Specifically, we examine alternative explanatory perspectives by focusing on self-efficacy as a proxy for the accepted individual psychological case and contrast it with potential bystander characteristics of the individual as well factors as embedded in the social context of the disaster community. To do so, we will utilize a random sampling of the population from a field study of an urban community in Israel that experienced five years of continuous terror attacks. The results strongly suggest that self-efficacy, as well as external factors: preparedness and having skills for intervention during emergencies along with gender best, predict potential helping behaviors. These results broaden our view of bystander behavior and open a window for enhancing this phenomenon as another element in disaster and crisis management.

Keywords: bystander behavior, disasters emergencies, psychological motivation to help, social context for helping

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Authors: Lee Boudreau, Ash Kumar Khaitu, Laura A. S. MacDonald

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In April 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal, killing, injuring, and displacing thousands of people. The earthquake also damaged water and sanitation service networks, leading to a high risk of diarrheal disease and the associated negative health impacts. In response to the disaster, the Environment and Public Health Organization (ENPHO), a Kathmandu-based non-governmental organization, worked with the Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST), a Canadian education, training and consulting organization, to develop two training programs to educate volunteers on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs. The first training program was intended for acute response, with the second focusing on longer term recovery. A key focus was to equip the volunteers with the knowledge and skills to formulate useful WASH advice in the unanticipated circumstances they would encounter when working in affected areas. Within the first two weeks of the disaster, a two-day acute response training was developed, which focused on enabling volunteers to educate those affected by the disaster about local WASH issues, their link to health, and their increased importance immediately following emergency situations. Between March and October 2015, a total of 19 training events took place, with over 470 volunteers trained. The trained volunteers distributed hygiene kits and liquid chlorine for household water treatment. They also facilitated health messaging and WASH awareness activities in affected communities. A three-day recovery phase training was also developed and has been delivered to volunteers in Nepal since October 2015. This training focused on WASH issues during the recovery and reconstruction phases. The interventions and recommendations in the recovery phase training focus on long-term WASH solutions, and so form a link between emergency relief strategies and long-term development goals. ENPHO has trained 226 volunteers during the recovery phase, with training ongoing as of April 2016. In the aftermath of the earthquake, ENPHO found that its existing pool of volunteers were more than willing to help those in their communities who were more in need. By training these and new volunteers, ENPHO was able to reach many more communities in the immediate aftermath of the disaster; together they reached 11 of the 14 earthquake-affected districts. The collaboration between ENPHO and CAWST in developing the training materials was a highly collaborative and iterative process, which enabled the training materials to be developed within a short response time. By training volunteers on basic WASH topics during both the immediate response and the recovery phase, ENPHO and CAWST have been able to link immediate emergency relief to long-term developmental goals. While the recovery phase training continues in Nepal, CAWST is planning to decontextualize the training used in both phases so that it can be applied to other emergency situations in the future. The training materials will become part of the open content materials available on CAWST’s WASH Resources website.

Keywords: water and sanitation, emergency response, education and training, building resilience

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Authors: Lancer Scott

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Purpose: High quality clinical disaster medicine requires providers working collaboratively to care for multiple patients in chaotic environments; however, many providers lack adequate training. To address this deficit, we created a competency-based, 5-hour Emergency Preparedness Training (EPT) curriculum using didactics, small-group discussion, and kinetic learning. The goal was to evaluate the effect of a short course on improving provider knowledge, confidence and skills in disaster scenarios. Methods: Diverse groups of medical university students, health care professionals, and community members were enrolled between 2011 and 2014. The course consisted of didactic lectures, small group exercises, and two live, multi-patient mass casualty incident (MCI) scenarios. The outcome measures were based on core competencies and performance objectives developed by a curriculum task force and assessed via trained facilitator observation, pre- and post-testing, and a course evaluation. Results: 708 participants completed were trained between November 2011 and August 2014, including 49.9% physicians, 31.9% medical students, 7.2% nurses, and 11% various other healthcare professions. 100% of participants completed the pre-test and 71.9% completed the post-test, with average correct answers increasing from 39% to 60%. Following didactics, trainees met 73% and 96% of performance objectives for the two small group exercises and 68.5% and 61.1% of performance objectives for the two MCI scenarios. Average trainee self-assessment of both overall knowledge and skill with clinical disasters improved from 33/100 to 74/100 (overall knowledge) and 33/100 to 77/100 (overall skill). The course assessment was completed by 34.3% participants, of whom 91.5% highly recommended the course. Conclusion: A relatively short, intensive EPT course can improve the ability of a diverse group of disaster care providers to respond effectively to mass casualty scenarios.

Keywords: clinical disaster medicine, training, hospital preparedness, surge capacity, education, curriculum, research, performance, training, student, physicians, nurses, health care providers, health care

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Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

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The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking

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Authors: Brandon Knopp, Matthew Harris

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Purpose: Tip-apex distance (TAD) has long been discussed as a metric for determining risk of failure in the fixation of peritrochanteric fractures. TAD measurements over 25 millimeters (mm) have been associated with higher rates of screw cut out and other complications in the first several months after surgery. However, there is limited evidence for the efficacy of this measurement in predicting the long-term risk of negative outcomes following hip fixation surgery. The purpose of our study was to investigate risk factors including TAD for hospital readmission, loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications within 1 year after hip fixation surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of proximal hip fractures treated with single screw intramedullary devices between 2016 and 2020 was performed at a 327-bed regional medical center. Patients included had a postoperative follow-up of at least 12 months or surgery-related complications developing within that time. Results: 44 of the 67 patients in this study met the inclusion criteria with adequate follow-up post-surgery. There was a total of 10 males (22.7%) and 34 females (77.3%) meeting inclusion criteria with a mean age of 82.1 (± 12.3) at the time of surgery. The average TAD in our study population was 19.57mm and the average 1-year readmission rate was 15.9%. 3 out of 6 patients (50%) with a TAD > 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications. In contrast, 3 out of 38 patients (7.9%) with a TAD < 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications (p=0.0254). Individual TAD measurements, averaging 22.05mm in patients readmitted within 1 year of surgery and 19.18mm in patients not readmitted within 1 year of surgery, were not significantly different between the two groups (p=0.2113). Conclusions: Our data indicate a significant improvement in hospital readmission rates up to one year after hip fixation surgery in patients with a TAD < 25mm with a decrease in readmissions of over 40% (50% vs 7.9%). This result builds upon past investigations by extending the follow-up time to 1 year after surgery and utilizing hospital readmissions as a metric for surgical success. With the well-documented physical and financial costs of hospital readmission after hip surgery, our study highlights a reduction of TAD < 25mm as an effective method of improving patient outcomes and reducing financial costs to patients and medical institutions. No relationship was found between TAD measurements and secondary outcomes, including loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications.

Keywords: hip fractures, hip reductions, readmission rates, open reduction internal fixation

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Authors: Jigg L. Pelayo, Ricardo G. Villar, Einstine M. Opiso

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The advances of aerial laser scanning in the Philippines has open-up entire fields of research in remote sensing and machine vision aspire to provide accurate timely information for the government and the public. Rapid mapping of polygonal roads and roof boundaries is one of its utilization offering application to disaster risk reduction, mitigation and development. The study uses low density LiDAR data and high resolution aerial imagery through object-oriented approach considering the theoretical concept of data analysis subjected to machine learning algorithm in minimizing the constraints of feature extraction. Since separating one class from another in distinct regions of a multi-dimensional feature-space, non-trivial computing for fitting distribution were implemented to formulate the learned ideal hyperplane. Generating customized hybrid feature which were then used in improving the classifier findings. Supplemental algorithms for filtering and reshaping object features are develop in the rule set for enhancing the final product. Several advantages in terms of simplicity, applicability, and process transferability is noticeable in the methodology. The algorithm was tested in the different random locations of Misamis Oriental province in the Philippines demonstrating robust performance in the overall accuracy with greater than 89% and potential to semi-automation. The extracted results will become a vital requirement for decision makers, urban planners and even the commercial sector in various assessment processes.

Keywords: feature extraction, machine learning, OBIA, remote sensing

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Authors: Y. K. Park, B. K. Kim, J. W. Lee, S. J. Lee

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To assess the risk of the underground structures and surrounding ground, we collect basic data by the engineering method of measurement, exploration and surveys and, derive the risk through proper analysis and each assessment for urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground including station inflow. Basic data are obtained by the fiber-optic sensors, MEMS sensors, water quantity/quality sensors, tunnel scanner, ground penetrating radar, light weight deflectometer, and are evaluated if they are more than the proper value or not. Based on these data, we analyze the risk level of urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground. And we develop the risk management system to manage efficiently these data and to support a convenient interface environment at input/output of data.

Keywords: urban railroad, underground structures, ground subsidence, station inflow, risk

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Qing Cao

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Generally speaking, China has a relatively high level of intellectual property (IP) infringement. Risk assessment is indispensable in the strategic planning process. To complement the current literature in international business, the paper sheds the light on how to assess IP risk for foreign companies in planning market entry to China. Evaluating internal and external IP environment, proposed in the paper, consists of external analysis, internal analysis and further internal analysis. Through position the company’s IP environment, the risk assessment approach enables the foreign companies to either build the corresponding IP strategies or abort the entry plan beforehand to minimize the IP risks.

Keywords: intellectual property, IP environment, risk assessment

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Authors: Chad A. Long

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The United States military is now commonly responding to complex humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters around the world. From catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti to typhoons devastating the Philippines, U.S. military assistance is requested when the event exceeds the local government's ability to assist the population. This study assesses the characteristics of catastrophes that surpass a nation’s individual ability to respond and recover from the event. The paper begins with a historical summary of military aid and then analyzes over 40 years of the United States military humanitarian response. Over 300 military operations were reviewed and coded based on the nature of the disaster. This in-depth study reviewed the U.S. military’s deployment events for cyclones and earthquakes to determine the strength of the natural disaster requiring external assistance. The climatological data for cyclone landfall and magnitude data for earthquake epicenters were identified, grouped into regions and analyzed for time-based trends. The results showed that foreign countries will likely request the U.S. military for cyclones with speeds greater or equal to 125 miles an hour and earthquakes at the magnitude of 7.4 or higher. These results of this study will assist the geographic combatant commands in determining future military response requirements.

Keywords: military, natural disasters, earthquakes, cyclone

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Authors: Diyaolu Babajide Olufemi, Oyerinde Oyewole Olusesan

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This study examined the effect of sex education training programs on the knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior among secondary school adolescents in Ibadan North Local Government area of Oyo State. A total of 105 students were sampled from two schools in the Local Government area. Seventy students (70) constituted the experimental group while thirty-five (35) constituted the control group. Pretest-Posttest control group quasi-experimental design was adopted. A self-developed questionnaire was used to test participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior before and after the training (α=.62, .82 and .74). Analysis indicated a significant effect of sex education training on participants’ knowledge and practice of sexual risk behavior, a significant gender difference in knowledge of sexual risk behavior but no significant age and gender difference in the practice of sexual risk behavior. It was thus concluded that sex education should be taught in schools and emphasized at homes with no age or gender restrictions.

Keywords: early adolescent, health risk, sexual risk behavior, sex education

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Authors: Hanieh Mohammadi, Sarah Fraser, Anil Nigam, Frederic Lesage, Louis Bherer

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A chronically higher cerebral pulsatility is thought to damage cerebral microcirculation, leading to cognitive decline in older adults. Although it is widely known that regular physical activity is linked to improvement in some cognitive domains, including executive functions, the mediating role of cerebral pulsatility on this link remains to be elucidated. This study assessed the impact of 6 months of regular physical activity upon changes in an optical index of cerebral pulsatility and the role of physical activity for the improvement of executive functions. 27 older adults (aged 57-79, 66.7% women) with cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) were enrolled in the study. The participants completed the behavioral Stroop test, which was extracted from the Delis-Kaplan executive functions system battery at baseline (T0) and after 6 months (T6) of physical activity. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was applied for an innovative approach to indexing cerebral pulsatility in the brain microcirculation at T0 and T6. The participants were at standing rest while a NIRS device recorded hemodynamics data from frontal and motor cortex subregions at T0 and T6. The cerebral pulsatility index of interest was cerebral pulse amplitude, which was extracted from the pulsatile component of NIRS data. Our data indicated that 6 months of physical activity was associated with a reduction in the response time for the executive functions, including inhibition (T0: 56.33± 18.2 to T6: 53.33± 15.7,p= 0.038)and Switching(T0: 63.05± 5.68 to T6: 57.96 ±7.19,p< 0.001) conditions of the Stroop test. Also, physical activity was associated with a reduction in cerebral pulse amplitude (T0: 0.62± 0.05 to T6: 0.55± 0.08, p < 0.001). Notably, cerebral pulse amplitude was a significant mediator of the link between physical activity and response to the Stroop test for both inhibition (β=0.33 (0.61,0.23),p< 0.05)and switching (β=0.42 (0.69,0.11),p <0.01) conditions. This study suggests that regular physical activity may support cognitive functions through the improvement of cerebral pulsatility in older adults with CVRF.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopy, cerebral pulsatility, physical activity, cardiovascular risk factors, executive functions

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Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

Abstract:

The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Muhammad Wasif, Asif Ahmed Shaikh, Sarosh Hashmat Lodi, Muhammad Aslam Bhutto, Riazuddin

Abstract:

Risk Management System is quite popular in profit- based organizations, health and safety and project management fields since the last few decades. But due to rapidly changing environment and requirement of ISO 9001:2015 standards, public-sector institution, especially higher education institutes are also performing risk assessment to monitor the performance of the institution and aligning it with the latest benchmark. In this context, NED University of Engineering and Technology performed research and developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the risk assessment, its monitoring and control. In this research, risks are broken into the four sources, namely; Internal Academics Risks, External Academics Risks, Internal Non-academic Risks, External Non-academic Risks. Risks are identified by the management at all levels. Severity and likelihood of the risks are assigned based on the previous audit results and the customer complains. Risk Ratings are calculated to orderly arrange the risk according to the Risk Rating, and controls for the risks are designed, which are assigned to the responsible person. At the end of the article, result and analysis on the different sources of risk are discussed in details and the conclusion is drawn. Discussion on few sample risks are presented in this article. Hence it is presented in the research that the Risk Management System can be applied in a Higher Education Institute to effectively control the risks which might affect the scope and Quality Management System of an organization.

Keywords: higher education, quality management system, risk assessment, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 275