Search results for: cut-off probability

Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

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Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Marwane Ben Hcine, Ridha Bouallegue

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The aim of this work is to provide an original analytical framework for downlink effective SINR evaluation in LTE networks. The classical single carrier SINR performance evaluation is extended to multi-carrier systems operating over frequency selective channels. Extension is achieved by expressing the link outage probability in terms of the statistics of the effective SINR. For effective SINR computation, the exponential effective SINR mapping (EESM) method is used on this work. Closed-form expression for the link outage probability is achieved assuming a log skew normal approximation for single carrier case. Then we rely on the lognormal approximation to express the exponential effective SINR distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of the SINR of a generic subcarrier. Achieved formulas is easily computable and can be obtained for a user equipment (UE) located at any distance from its serving eNodeB. Simulations show that the proposed framework provides results with accuracy within 0.5 dB.

Keywords: LTE, OFDMA, effective SINR, log skew normal approximation

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Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: A. Moawad, K. C. Yao, A. Mansour, R. Gautier

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The detecting of an occupied frequency band is a major issue in cognitive radio systems. The detection process becomes difficult if the signal occupying the band of interest has faded amplitude due to multipath effects. These effects make it hard for an occupying user to be detected. This work mitigates the missed-detection problem in the context of cognitive radio in frequency-selective fading channel by proposing blind channel estimation method that is based on scattering transform. By initially applying conventional energy detection, the missed-detection probability is evaluated, and if it is greater than or equal to 50%, channel estimation is applied on the received signal followed by channel equalization to reduce the channel effects. In the proposed channel estimator, we modify the Morlet wavelet by using its first derivative for better frequency resolution. A mathematical description of the modified function and its frequency resolution is formulated in this work. The improved frequency resolution is required to follow the spectral variation of the channel. The channel estimation error is evaluated in the mean-square sense for different channel settings, and energy detection is applied to the equalized received signal. The simulation results show improvement in reducing the missed-detection probability as compared to the detection based on principal component analysis. This improvement is achieved at the expense of increased estimator complexity, which depends on the number of wavelet filters as related to the channel taps. Also, the detection performance shows an improvement in detection probability for low signal-to-noise scenarios over principal component analysis- based energy detection.

Keywords: channel estimation, cognitive radio, scattering transform, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

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Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: network capacity, packet loss probability, quality of experience, quality of service

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Neha Joshi, Srikanth Jois, Hector J. Peughero, Poornima Jayakrishna, Moulya R., Purnima Madivanan, Kiran Kumar K. Salagame

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Transgenders are a marginalized section of the community, who are at high risk of mental health problems due to their stigmatization, abandonment by family, prejudice, discrimination by society at large, and the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse from both within and outside their community. Their mental healthcare needs remain largely unaddressed due to lack of access, discrimination by healthcare professions, and lack of resources, including time and money, to seek conventional medical and psychotherapeutic treatments. Meditation is increasingly receiving acceptance as a tool for managing stress and anxiety by the patients as well as mental healthcare professionals. “Meditation on Twin Hearts” is a no cost, self-administered intervention that a person can practice anywhere and at any time of the day. This pilot study evaluates the need for alternate traditional and ingenious interventions like “Meditation of Twin Hearts” to address the mental healthcare needs of the transgender community and acceptance of such an intervention by the community. Thirteen individuals identifying themselves as transgender were invited to participate in one (Hunsur Taluk) of the five scheduled free meditation camps in Mysore. After obtaining informed consent for participation in the study, their mental health status is captured using an anonymous survey using standard, validated, self-reported questionnaires Generalised Anxiety Disorders (GAD)-7 for anxiety, Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) for depression, and Suicidal Behavior Questionnaire-Revised for suicidality. Then, they were requested to attend a session on “Meditation on Twin Hearts.” After the session, their feedback on willingness to further explore the meditation technique for managing their mental healthcare need was assessed through another survey form. Out of the 13 participants, 92% scored for anxiety (4 mild, and 8 moderate anxiety). In the depression scale, 5 scored for mild and 5 for moderate depression, with a total of 77% (10/13) scoring positively on depression scale. Nearly 70% of participants (9/13), scored greater than the clinical cutoff for the need for clinical intervention. The proportion of individuals at risk for suicide was particularly high in this group, with 8/ 13 (61.5%) participants scoring the clinical cutoff score of ≥ 7. Surprisingly, none of the participants had ever consulted a mental healthcare professional. All the participants (13/13; 100%) responded in affirmative to the question, “Will you be willing to continue meditation for management of your anxiety?” Six out of 13 participants described their experience of meditation as “happy” and 3 described it as “peaceful”. None of the participants reported any negative beliefs or experience regarding the meditation. The study provides evidence for the urgent yet unmet mental healthcare need of the transgender community. The findings of the study also supports the rationale of conducting future systematic research to evaluate and explore ingenious and traditional practices, such as meditation, to meet the healthcare needs, especially in marginalized populations in a low income setting such as Lower and Middle Income countries. Based on these preliminary findings, the Principal Investigator (PI) is planning to cover 4 more areas of Mysore district.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, meditation on twin heart, suicidality, transgender

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Negar Mesgara, Laleh Maleknia

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In this paper, electrospun CdTe quantum dot / nylon-6 nanofiber mats were successfully prepared. The nanofiber mats were characterized by FE-SEM, XRD and EDX analyses. The results revealed that fibers in different distinct sizes (nano and subnano scale) were obtained with the electrospinning parameters. The phenomenon of ‘on ‘ and ‘off ‘ luminescence intermittency (blinking) of CdTe QDs in nylon-6 was investigated by single-molecule optical microscopy, and we identified that the intermittencies of single QDs were correlated with the interaction of water molecules absorbed on the QD surface. The ‘off’ times, the interval between adjacent ‘on’ states, remained essentially unaffected with an increase in excitation intensity. In the case of ‘on’ time distribution, power law behavior with an exponential cutoff tail is observed at longer time scales. These observations indicate that the luminescence blinking statistics of water-soluble single CdTe QDs is significantly dependent on the aqueous environment, which is interpreted in terms of passivation of the surface trap states of QDs.

Keywords: electrospinning, CdTe quantum dots, Nylon-6, Nanocomposite

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection

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Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Shahab Uddin, Kazi M. Uddin, Hamamah Sadiqa

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The paper deals with the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge (BMB), the 11th longest bridge in the world was constructed in 1998 aimed at contributing to promote economic development in Bangladesh. In recent years, however, the high incidence of traffic accidents and injuries at the bridge sites looms as a great safety concern. Investigation into the derailment of nine bogies out of thirteen of Dinajpur-bound intercity train ‘Drutajan Express ’were derailed and inclined on the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge on 28 April 2014. The train accident in Bridge will be deep concern for both structural safety of bridge and people than other vehicles accident. In this study we analyzed the disaster probability of the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge for accidents by checking the fitness of Bridge structure. We found that train accident impact is more risky than other vehicles accidents. We also found that socio-economic impact on Bangladesh will be deep concerned.

Keywords: train accident, derailment, disaster, socio-economic

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Authors: Ashkan Zakaryazad, Ekrem Duman

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A typical classification technique ranks the instances in a data set according to the likelihood of belonging to one (positive) class. A credit card (CC) fraud detection model ranks the transactions in terms of probability of being fraud. In fact, this approach is often criticized, because firms do not care about fraud probability but about the profitability or costliness of detecting a fraudulent transaction. The key contribution in this study is to focus on the profit maximization in the model building step. The artificial neural network proposed in this study works based on profit maximization instead of minimizing the error of prediction. Moreover, some studies have shown that the back propagation algorithm, similar to other gradient–based algorithms, usually gets trapped in local optima and swarm-based algorithms are more successful in this respect. In this study, we train our profit maximization ANN using the Migrating Birds optimization (MBO) which is introduced to literature recently.

Keywords: neural network, profit-based neural network, sum of squared errors (SSE), MBO, gradient descent

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

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The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

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Authors: Justin Zhengjie Tan, Yang Zhao

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Adiabatic Rapid Passage, a popular method of achieving population inversion, is studied in a Rabi dimer model in the presence of noise which acts as a dissipative environment. The integration of the multi-Davydov D2 Ansatz into the time-dependent variational framework enables us to model the intricate quantum system accurately. By influencing the system with a driving field strength resonant with the energy spacing, the probability of adiabatic rapid passage, which is modelled after the Landau Zener model, can be derived along with several other observables, such as the photon population. The effects of a dissipative environment can be reproduced by coupling the system to a common phonon mode. By manipulating the strength and frequency of the driving field, along with the coupling strength of the phonon mode to the qubits, we are able to control the qubits and photon dynamics and subsequently increase the probability of Adiabatic Rapid Passage happening.

Keywords: quantum electrodynamics, adiabatic rapid passage, Landau-Zener transitions, dissipative environment

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Authors: K. S. Zaytsev, Y. R. Nartsissov

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Glycine is one of the key inhibitory neurotransmitters in Central nervous system (CNS) meanwhile glycinergic transmission is highly dependable on its appropriate reuptake from synaptic cleft. Glycine transporters (GlyT) of types 1 and 2 are the enzymes providing glycine transport back to neuronal and glial cells along with Na⁺ and Cl⁻ co-transport. The distribution and stoichiometry of GlyT1 and GlyT2 differ in details, and GlyT2 is more interesting for the research as it reuptakes glycine to neuron cells, whereas GlyT1 is located in glial cells. In the process of GlyT2 activity, the translocation of the amino acid is accompanied with binding of both one chloride and three sodium ions consequently (two sodium ions for GlyT1). In the present study, we developed a computer simulator of GlyT2 and GlyT1 activity based on known experimental data for quantitative estimation of membrane glycine transport. The trait of a single protein functioning was described using the probability approach where each enzyme state was considered separately. Created scheme of transporter functioning realized as a consequence of elemental steps allowed to take into account each event of substrate association and dissociation. Computer experiments using up-to-date kinetic parameters allowed receiving the number of translocated glycine molecules, Na⁺ and Cl⁻ ions per time period. Flexibility of developed software makes it possible to evaluate glycine reuptake pattern in time under different internal characteristics of enzyme conformational transitions. We investigated the behavior of the system in a wide range of equilibrium constant (from 0.2 to 100), which is not determined experimentally. The significant influence of equilibrium constant in the range from 0.2 to 10 on the glycine transfer process is shown. The environmental conditions such as ion and glycine concentrations are decisive if the values of the constant are outside the specified range.

Keywords: glycine, inhibitory neurotransmitters, probability approach, single protein functioning

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Komal Babbar

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Multiuser Detection is the intelligent estimation/demodulation of transmitted bits in the presence of Multiple Access Interference. The authors have presented the Bit-error rate (BER) achieved by linear multi-user detectors: Matched filter (which treats the MAI as AWGN), Decorrelating and MMSE. In this work, authors investigate the bit error probability analysis for Matched filter, decorrelating, and MMSE. This problem arises in several practical CDMA applications where the receiver may not have full knowledge of the number of active users and their signature sequences. In particular, the behavior of MAI at the output of the Multi-user detectors (MUD) is examined under various asymptotic conditions including large signal to noise ratio; large near-far ratios; and a large number of users. In the last section Authors also shows Matlab Simulation results for Multiuser detection techniques i.e., Matched filter, Decorrelating, MMSE for 2 users and 10 users.

Keywords: code division multiple access, decorrelating, matched filter, minimum mean square detection (MMSE) detection, multiple access interference (MAI), multiuser detection (MUD)

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Authors: Wern Lin Yeo, Choo Kim Tan, Sook Ling Lew

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Mathematics anxiety refers to the feeling of anxious when one having difficulties in solving mathematical problem. Mathematics anxiety is the most common type of anxiety among other types of anxiety which occurs among the students. However, level of anxiety among males and females are different. There were few past study were conducted to determine the relationship of anxiety and gender but there were still did not have an exact results. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of anxiety level between male and female undergraduates at a private university in Malaysia. Convenient sampling method used in this study in which the students were selected based on the grouping assigned by the faculty. There were 214 undergraduates who registered the probability courses had participated in this study. Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) was the instrument used in study which used to determine students’ anxiety level towards probability. Reliability and validity of instrument was done before the major study was conducted. In the major study, students were given briefing about the study conducted. Participation of this study were voluntary. Students were given consent form to determine whether they agree to participate in the study. Duration of two weeks were given for students to complete the given online questionnaire. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to determine the level of anxiety. There were three anxiety level, i.e., low, average and high. Students’ anxiety level were determined based on their scores obtained compared with the mean and standard deviation. If the scores obtained were below mean and standard deviation, the anxiety level was low. If the scores were at below and above the mean and between one standard deviation, the anxiety level was average. If the scores were above the mean and greater than one standard deviation, the anxiety level was high. Results showed that both of the gender were having average anxiety level. Males having high frequency of three anxiety level which were low, average and high anxiety level as compared to females. Hence, the mean values obtained for males (M = 3.62) was higher than females (M = 3.42). In order to be significant of anxiety level among the gender, the p-value should be less than .05. The p-value obtained in this study was .117. However, this value was greater than .05. Thus, there was no significant difference of anxiety level among the gender. In other words, there was no relationship of anxiety level with the gender.

Keywords: anxiety level, gender, mathematics anxiety, probability and statistics

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Authors: Shanxiong Chen, Xu Han, Xiaolong Wang, Hui Ma

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Yi is an ethnic group mainly living in mainland China, with its own spoken and written language systems, after development of thousands of years. Ancient Yi is one of the six ancient languages in the world, which keeps a record of the history of the Yi people and offers documents valuable for research into human civilization. Recognition of the characters in ancient Yi helps to transform the documents into an electronic form, making their storage and spreading convenient. Due to historical and regional limitations, research on recognition of ancient characters is still inadequate. Thus, deep learning technology was applied to the recognition of such characters. Five models were developed on the basis of the four-layer convolutional neural network (CNN). Alpha-Beta divergence was taken as a penalty term to re-encode output neurons of the five models. Two fully connected layers fulfilled the compression of the features. Finally, at the softmax layer, the orthographic features of ancient Yi characters were re-evaluated, their probability distributions were obtained, and characters with features of the highest probability were recognized. Tests conducted show that the method has achieved higher precision compared with the traditional CNN model for handwriting recognition of the ancient Yi.

Keywords: recognition, CNN, Yi character, divergence

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