Search results for: complex decisions

Authors: M. Yaqoob, C. S. O’Neill, S. Faraj, C. L. O’Neill

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This paper presents the preliminary findings from a study exploring nurse’s contributions to end of life decisions and to the care of dying patients in ICU units in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The process of dying is complex as medical clinicians are frequently unable to say with certainty when death will occur. It is generally accepted that end of life care begins when it is possible to know that death is imminent. Nurses do not make medical treatment decisions when caring for a dying patient. There are, however, many other types of decisions made when a patient is approaching the end of life and nurses are either formally or informally part of these decision making processes. This study explored nurses care practices at the end of life, in two ICU units in large hospitals in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The research design was a grounded theory approach. Ten nurses participated, six of whom were Bahraini nationals and four were Indian. A core category death avoidance talk was supported by three major subcategories, degrees of involvement in decision making; signalling and creating an awareness of death; care shifting from dying patients to family. Despite nurses asserting that they carried out the orders of doctors and had no role in decision making processes at end of life this study showed that there were degrees of nurse involvement. Doctors frequently discussed the patient’s clinical condition with nurses and also sought information regarding the family. Information about the family was of particular relevance if the doctor was considering a DNR order, which the nurses equated with dying. Families were not always informed when a DNR decision was made. When families were not informed the nurses engaged in sophisticated rituals signalling and creating awareness to family members that the death of their loved one was near. This process also involved a subtle shifting of care from the dying patient to the family. This seminar paper will focus particularly on how nurses signal and create an awareness of death in an ICU setting. The findings suggest that despite the avoidance of death talk in the ICU nurses indirectly convey and create an awareness that death is near to family members.

Keywords: decision making, dying patients, end of life, intensive care unit

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Authors: Dovile Petkeviciute-Barysiene

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Legal technologies not only create new ways for accessing and providing legal services but also transform the role of legal practitioners. Both lawyers and users of legal services expect automated solutions to outperform people with objectivity and impartiality. Although fairness of the automated decisions is crucial, research on assessing various characteristics of automated processes related to the perceived fairness has only begun. One of the major obstacles to this research is the lack of comprehensive understanding of what legal actions are automated and could be meaningfully automated, and to what extent. Neither public nor legal practitioners oftentimes cannot envision technological input due to the lack of general without illustrative examples. The aim of this study is to map decision making stages and automation levels which are and/or could be achieved in legal actions related to pre-trial and trial processes. Major legal decisions and judgments are identified during the consultations with legal practitioners. The dual-process model of information processing is used to describe cognitive processes taking place while making legal decisions and judgments during pre-trial and trial action. Some of the existing legal technologies are incorporated into the analysis as well. Several published automation level taxonomies are considered because none of them fit well into the legal context, as they were all created for avionics, teleoperation, unmanned aerial vehicles, etc. From the information processing perspective, analysis of the legal decisions and judgments expose situations that are most sensitive to cognitive bias, among others, also help to identify areas that would benefit from the automation the most. Automation level analysis, in turn, provides a systematic approach to interaction and cooperation between humans and algorithms. Moreover, an integrated map of legal decisions and judgments, information processing characteristics, and automation levels all together provide some groundwork for the research of legal technology perceived fairness and acceptance. Acknowledgment: This project has received funding from European Social Fund (project No 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-19-0116) under grant agreement with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT).

Keywords: automation levels, information processing, legal judgment and decision making, legal technology

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Authors: Yalçın Kılıç, İbrahim Kani

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The conversion of hydrocarbons to carbonyl compounds by oxidation reaction is one of the most important reactions in the synthesis of fine chemicals. As a result of the oxidation of hydrocarbons containing aliphatic sp3-CH groups in their structures, aldehydes, ketones or carboxylic acids can be obtained. In this study, OSSO-type 2,2'-[1,4-butanedylbis(thio)]bis-benzoic acid (tsabutH2) ligand and [Zn(µ-tsabut)(phen)]n complex (where phen = 1,10-phenantroline) were synthesized and their structures were characterized by single crystal x-ray diffraction method. The catalytic efficiency of the complex in the catalytic oxidation studies of organic compounds such as cyclohexane, ethylbenzene, diphenylmethane, and p-xylene containing sp3-C-H in its structure was investigated.

Keywords: metal complex, OSSO-type ligand, catalysis, oxidation

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Authors: Jentel Van Havermaet, Geert Van Hove, Elisabeth De Schauwer

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This study re-conceptualizes visual impairment in the interdependent context of James, his family, and allies. Living with a visual impairment is understood as an entanglement of assemblages, dynamics, disablism, systems… We narrated this diffractively into two meaningful events: decisions and processes on (inclusive) education and hinderances in connecting with others. We entangled and (un)raveled lived experiences in assemblages in which the contextualized meaning of visual impairment became more clearly. The contextualized narrative of James interwove complex intra-actions; showed the complexity and contextualization of entangled relationalities.

Keywords: disability studies, contextualization, visual impairment, assemblage, entanglement, lived experiences

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Authors: Avinash S. Jagtap, Sharad D. Gore, Rajendra G. Gurao

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Decision rules become more and more complex as the number of conditions increase. As a consequence, the complexity of the decision rule also influences the time complexity of computer implementation of such a rule. Consider, for example, a decision that depends on four conditions A, B, C and D. For simplicity, suppose each of these four conditions is binary. Even then the decision rule will consist of 16 lines, where each line will be of the form: If A and B and C and D, then action 1. If A and B and C but not D, then action 2 and so on. While executing this decision rule, each of the four conditions will be checked every time until all the four conditions in a line are satisfied. The minimum number of logical comparisons is 4 whereas the maximum number is 64. This paper proposes to present a complex decision rule in the form of a decision tree. A decision tree divides the cases into branches every time a condition is checked. In the form of a decision tree, every branching eliminates half of the cases that do not satisfy the related conditions. As a result, every branch of the decision tree involves only four logical comparisons and hence is significantly simpler than the corresponding complex decision rule. The conclusion of this paper is that every complex decision rule can be represented as a decision tree and the decision tree is mathematically equivalent but computationally much simpler than the original complex decision rule

Keywords: strategic, tactical, operational, adaptive, innovative

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Authors: Amir Mohammad Fathollahi Fard, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, Mohammad Mahdi Paydar

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With increasing life expectancy in developed countries, the role of home care services is highlighted by both academia and industrial contributors in Home Health Care Supply Chain (HHCSC) companies. The main decisions in such supply chain systems are the location of pharmacies, the allocation of patients to these pharmacies and also the routing and scheduling decisions of nurses to visit their patients. In this study, for the first time, an integrated model is proposed to consist of all preliminary and necessary decisions in these companies, namely, location-allocation-routing model. This model is a type of NP-hard one. Therefore, an Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) is utilized to solve the model, especially in large sizes. Results confirm the efficiency of the developed model for HHCSC companies as well as the performance of employed ICA.

Keywords: home health care supply chain, location-allocation-routing problem, imperialist competitive algorithm, optimization

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Authors: Jacquelyn Burkell, Jane Bailey

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Artificial intelligence (AI) solutions deployed within the justice system face the critical task of providing acceptable explanations for decisions or actions. These explanations must satisfy the joint criteria of public and professional accountability, taking into account the perspectives and requirements of multiple stakeholders, including judges, lawyers, parties, witnesses, and the general public. This research project analyzes and integrates two existing literature on explanations in order to propose guidelines for explainable AI in the justice system. Specifically, we review three bodies of literature: (i) explanations of the purpose and function of 'explainable AI'; (ii) the relevant case law, judicial commentary and legal literature focused on the form and function of reasons for judicial decisions; and (iii) the literature focused on the psychological and sociological functions of these reasons for judicial decisions from the perspective of the public. Our research suggests that while judicial ‘reasons’ (arguably accurate descriptions of the decision-making process and factors) do serve similar explanatory functions as those identified in the literature on 'explainable AI', they also serve an important ‘justification’ function (post hoc constructions that justify the decision that was reached). Further, members of the public are also looking for both justification and explanation in reasons for judicial decisions, and that the absence of either feature is likely to contribute to diminished public confidence in the legal system. Therefore, artificially automated judicial decision-making systems that simply attempt to document the process of decision-making are unlikely in many cases to be useful to and accepted within the justice system. Instead, these systems should focus on the post-hoc articulation of principles and precedents that support the decision or action, especially in cases where legal subjects’ fundamental rights and liberties are at stake.

Keywords: explainable AI, judicial reasons, public accountability, explanation, justification

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Authors: Wan-Hsin Hsieh, Chieh-Fu Chang, Ming-Seng Kao

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In this paper, a novel method termed the Phase Coherence Acquisition (PCA) is proposed for pseudo-random (PN) sequence acquisition. By employing complex phasors, the PCA requires only complex additions in the order of N, the length of the sequence, whereas the conventional method utilizing fast Fourier transform (FFT) requires complex multiplications and additions both in the order of Nlog2N . In order to combat noise, the input and local sequences are partitioned and mapped into complex phasors in PCA. The phase differences between pairs of input and local phasors are utilized for acquisition, and thus complex multiplications are avoided. For more noise-robustness capability, the multi-layer PCA is developed to extract the code phase step by step. The significant reduction of computational loads makes the PCA an attractive method, especially when the sequence length of is extremely large which becomes intractable for the FFT-based acquisition.

Keywords: FFT, PCA, PN sequence, convolution theory

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. Individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) Which impact has the individual risk-willingness on BMI decisions? And ii) how do group interaction effects impact BMI decisions? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, the applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, decision-making, group biases, group decisions, group-interaction effects, risk-willingness

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Authors: Giovanna Bimonte, Luigi Senatore, Francesco Saverio Tortoriello, Ilaria Veronesi

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The education process considers capabilities not only to be seen as a means to a certain end but rather as an effective purpose. Sen's capability approach challenges human capital theory, which sees education as an ordinary investment undertaken by individuals. A complex reality requires complex thinking capable of interpreting the dynamics of society's changes to be able to make decisions that can be rational for private, ethical and social contexts. Education is not something removed from the cultural and social context; it exists and is structured within it. In Italy, the "Mathematical High School Project" is a didactic research project is based on additional laboratory courses in extracurricular hours where mathematics intends to bring itself in a dialectical relationship with other disciplines as a cultural bridge between the two cultures, the humanistic and the scientific ones, with interdisciplinary educational modules on themes of strong impact in younger life. This interdisciplinary mathematics presents topics related to the most advanced technologies and contemporary socio-economic frameworks to demonstrate how mathematics is not only a key to reading but also a key to resolving complex problems. The recent developments in mathematics provide the potential for profound and highly beneficial changes in mathematics education at all levels, such as in socio-economic decisions. The research project is built to investigate whether repeated interactions can successfully promote cooperation among students as rational choice and if the skill, the context and the school background can influence the strategies choice and the rationality. A Laboratory on Game Theory as mathematical theory was conducted in the 4th year of the Mathematical High Schools and in an ordinary scientific high school of the Scientific degree program. Students played two simultaneous games of repeated Prisoner's Dilemma with an indefinite horizon, with two different competitors in each round; even though the competitors in each round will remain the same for the duration of the game. The results highlight that most of the students in the two classes used the two games with an immunization strategy against the risk of losing: in one of the games, they started by playing Cooperate, and in the other by the strategy of Compete. In the literature, theoretical models and experiments show that in the case of repeated interactions with the same adversary, the optimal cooperation strategy can be achieved by tit-for-tat mechanisms. In higher education, individual capacities cannot be examined independently, as conceptual framework presupposes a social construction of individuals interacting and competing, making individual and collective choices. The paper will outline all the results of the experimentation and the future development of the research.

Keywords: game theory, interdisciplinarity, mathematics education, mathematical high school

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Authors: Ahmed Mateen, Zhu Qingsheng, Faisal Shahzad

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Requirement Engineering (RE) is a part being created for programming structure during the software development lifecycle. Software product line development is a new topic area within the domain of software engineering. It also plays important role in decision making and it is ultimately helpful in rising business environment for productive programming headway. Decisions are central to engineering processes and they hold them together. It is argued that better decisions will lead to better engineering. To achieve better decisions requires that they are understood in detail. In order to address the issues, companies are moving towards Software Product Line Engineering (SPLE) which helps in providing large varieties of products with minimum development effort and cost. This paper proposed a new framework for software product line and compared with other models. The results can help to understand the needs in SPL testing, by identifying points that still require additional investigation. In our future scenario, we will combine this model in a controlled environment with industrial SPL projects which will be the new horizon for SPL process management testing strategies.

Keywords: requirements engineering, software product lines, scoping, process structure, domain specific language

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Authors: Luke Miller

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This paper develops an options pricing methodology to value strategic pricing strategies in the services sector. More specifically, this study provides a unifying taxonomy of current service sector pricing practices, frames these pricing decisions as strategic real options, demonstrates accepted option valuation techniques to assess service sector pricing decisions, and suggests future research areas where pricing decisions and real options overlap. Enhancing revenue in the service sector requires proactive decision making in a world of uncertainty. In an effort to strategically price service products, revenue enhancement necessitates a careful study of the service costs, customer base, competition, legalities, and shared economies with the market. Pricing decisions involve the quality of inputs, manpower, and best practices to maintain superior service. These decisions further hinge on identifying relevant pricing strategies and understanding how these strategies impact a firm’s value. A relatively new area of research applies option pricing theory to investments in real assets and is commonly known as real options. The real options approach is based on the premise that many corporate decisions to invest or divest in assets are simply an option wherein the firm has the right to make an investment without any obligation to act. The decision maker, therefore, has more flexibility and the value of this operating flexibility should be taken into consideration. The real options framework has already been applied to numerous areas including manufacturing, inventory, natural resources, research and development, strategic decisions, technology, and stock valuation. Additionally, numerous surveys have identified a growing need for the real options decision framework within all areas of corporate decision-making. Despite the wide applicability of real options, no study has been carried out linking service sector pricing decisions and real options. This is surprising given the service sector comprises 80% of the US employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Identifying real options as a practical tool to value different service sector pricing strategies is believed to have a significant impact on firm decisions. This paper identifies and discusses four distinct pricing strategies available to the service sector from an options’ perspective: (1) Cost-based profit margin, (2) Increased customer base, (3) Platform pricing, and (4) Buffet pricing. Within each strategy lie several pricing tactics available to the service firm. These tactics can be viewed as options the decision maker has to best manage a strategic position in the market. To demonstrate the effectiveness of including flexibility in the pricing decision, a series of pricing strategies were developed and valued using a real options binomial lattice structure. The options pricing approach discussed in this study allows service firms to directly incorporate market-driven perspectives into the decision process and thus synchronizing service operations with organizational economic goals.

Keywords: option pricing theory, real options, service sector, valuation

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Authors: Wuttigrai Ngamsirijit

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Talent management in today’s modern organizations has become data-driven due to a demand for objective human resource decision making and development of analytics technologies. HR managers have been faced with some obstacles in exploiting data and information to obtain their effective talent management decisions. These include process-based data and records; insufficient human capital-related measures and metrics; lack of capabilities in data modeling in strategic manners; and, time consuming to add up numbers and make decisions. This paper proposes a framework of talent management through integration of talent value chain and human capital analytics approaches. It encompasses key data, measures, and metrics regarding strategic talent management decisions along the organizational and talent value chain. Moreover, specific predictive and prescriptive models incorporating these data and information are recommended to help managers in understanding the state of talent, gaps in managing talent and the organization, and the ways to develop optimized talent strategies.    

Keywords: decision making, human capital analytics, talent management, talent value chain

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Authors: Joel Niklaus, Matthias Sturmer

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The publication of judicial proceedings is a cornerstone of many democracies. It enables the court system to be made accountable by ensuring that justice is made in accordance with the laws. Equally important is privacy, as a fundamental human right (Article 12 in the Declaration of Human Rights). Therefore, it is important that the parties (especially minors, victims, or witnesses) involved in these court decisions be anonymized securely. Today, the anonymization of court decisions in Switzerland is performed either manually or semi-automatically using primitive software. While much research has been conducted on anonymization for tabular data, the literature on anonymization for unstructured text documents is thin and virtually non-existent for court decisions. In 2019, it has been shown that manual anonymization is not secure enough. In 21 of 25 attempted Swiss federal court decisions related to pharmaceutical companies, pharmaceuticals, and legal parties involved could be manually re-identified. This was achieved by linking the decisions with external databases using regular expressions. An automated re-identification system serves as an automated test for the safety of existing anonymizations and thus promotes the right to privacy. Manual anonymization is very expensive (recurring annual costs of over CHF 20M in Switzerland alone, according to an estimation). Consequently, many Swiss courts only publish a fraction of their decisions. An automated anonymization system reduces these costs substantially, further leading to more capacity for publishing court decisions much more comprehensively. For the re-identification system, topic modeling with latent dirichlet allocation is used to cluster an amount of over 500K Swiss court decisions into meaningful related categories. A comprehensive knowledge base with publicly available data (such as social media, newspapers, government documents, geographical information systems, business registers, online address books, obituary portal, web archive, etc.) is constructed to serve as an information hub for re-identifications. For the actual re-identification, a general-purpose language model is fine-tuned on the respective part of the knowledge base for each category of court decisions separately. The input to the model is the court decision to be re-identified, and the output is a probability distribution over named entities constituting possible re-identifications. For the anonymization system, named entity recognition (NER) is used to recognize the tokens that need to be anonymized. Since the focus lies on Swiss court decisions in German, a corpus for Swiss legal texts will be built for training the NER model. The recognized named entities are replaced by the category determined by the NER model and an identifier to preserve context. This work is part of an ongoing research project conducted by an interdisciplinary research consortium. Both a legal analysis and the implementation of the proposed system design ESRA will be performed within the next three years. This study introduces the system design of ESRA, an end-to-end system for re-identification and anonymization of Swiss court decisions. Firstly, the re-identification system tests the safety of existing anonymizations and thus promotes privacy. Secondly, the anonymization system substantially reduces the costs of manual anonymization of court decisions and thus introduces a more comprehensive publication practice.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, courts, legal tech, named entity recognition, natural language processing, ·privacy, topic modeling

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Authors: R. Borghol, T. Aguili

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In this paper, we investigate theoretically the waves propagation in a lossless double-negative grounded slab (DNG). This study is performed by the Transverse Resonance Method (TRM). The proper or improper nature of real and complex modes is observed. They are highly dependent on metamaterial parameters, i.e. ɛ_r-negative, µ_r-negative, or both. Numerical results provided that only the proper complex modes (i.e., leaky modes) exist in DNG slab, and only the improper complex modes exist in single-negative grounded slab.

Keywords: double negative grounded slab, real and complex modes, single negative grounded slab, transverse resonance method

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Authors: Temami Oussama, Bessais Lakhdar, Hamadi Djamal, Abderrahmani Sifeddine

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The analysis of complex structures encourages the engineer to make simplifying assumptions, sometimes attempting the analysis of the whole structure as complex as it is, and it can be done using the finite element method (FEM). In the modeling of complex structures by finite elements, various elements can be used: beam element, membrane element, solid element, plates and shells elements. These elements formulated according to the classical formulation and do not generally share the same nodal degrees of freedom, which complicates the development of a compatible model. The compatibility of the elements with each other is often a difficult problem for modeling complicated structure. This compatibility is necessary to ensure the convergence. To overcome this problem, we have proposed finite elements with a rotational degree of freedom. The study used is based on the strain approach formulation with 2D and 3D formulation with different degrees of freedom at each node. For the comparison and confrontation of results; the finite elements available in ABAQUS/Standard are used.

Keywords: compatibility requirement, complex structures, finite elements, modeling, strain approach

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Authors: Yalçın Kılıç, İbrahim Kani

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In recent years, interest in the synthesis of coordination compounds has greatly increased due to various application areas (such as catalysis, gas storage, luminescence). Dicarboxylic acids are often used in the synthesis of metal complexes. Bis-thiosalicylate derivative ligands contribute to the synthesis of structures of crystal engineering interest, as they can have both rigid and flexible properties. In addition, these ligands have great potential in terms of catalytic applications with the sulfur and oxygen donor atoms in their structures. In this study, we synthesized a Cu(II) complex [Cu(tsaxyl)(phen)2]•CH3OH (where tsaxyl = 2,2'-(1,2-phylenebis(methylene))bis(sulfanedyl)dibenzoate, phen = 1,10-phenantroline) and characterized through X-ray crystallography. The catalytic activities of Cu(II) complex on oxidation of ethylbenzene, cyclohexane, diphenylmethane, p-xylene were performed in acetonitrile with t-BuOOH as the source of oxygen.

Keywords: complex, crystallography, catalysis, oxidation

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

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Current systems' complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account environmental, operational, social, legal, and financial aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponentially growing effort, cost, and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework, and an environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and suggests a graph-based formalism for modeling complex systems. Finally, a set of transformations are defined to handle the model complexity.

Keywords: higraph-based, formalism, system engineering paradigm, modeling requirements, graph-based transformations

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Authors: Arturo J. Anci Alméstar, Jose D. Fernandez Huapaya, David Mauricio

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Companies make erroneous decisions by not evaluating the inherent difficulties of entering electronic commerce without a prior review of current digital and alternate means of payment. For this reason, it is very important for businesses to have reliable, complete and integrated information on the means of current digital and alternate payments that allow decisions to be made about which of these to use. However, there is no such consolidated information or criteria that companies use to make decisions about the means of payment according to their needs. In this paper, we propose a decision tree model based on a taxonomy that presents us with a categorization of digital and alternative means of payment, as well as the visualization of the flow of information at a high level from the company to obtain a recommendation. This will allow the company to make the most appropriate decision about the implementation of the digital means of payment or alternative ideal for their needs, which allows a reduction in costs and complexity of the payment process. Likewise, the efficiency of the proposed model was evaluated through a satisfaction survey presented to company personnel, confirming the satisfactory quality level of the recommendations obtained by the model.

Keywords: digital payment medium, decision tree, decision making, digital payments taxonomy

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Authors: Demet Ozgur-Unluakin, Busenur Turkali, Ayse Karacaorenli

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Maintenance strategies can be classified into two types, which are reactive and proactive, with respect to the time of the failure and maintenance. If the maintenance activity is done after a breakdown, it is called reactive maintenance. On the other hand, proactive maintenance, which is further divided as preventive and predictive, focuses on maintaining components before a failure occurs to prevent expensive halts. Recently, the number of interacting components in a system has increased rapidly and therefore, the structure of the systems have become more complex. This situation has made it difficult to provide the right maintenance decisions. Herewith, determining effective decisions has played a significant role. In multi-component systems, many methodologies and strategies can be applied when a component or a system has already broken down or when it is desired to identify and avoid proactively defects that could lead to future failure. This study focuses on the comparison of various maintenance strategies on a multi-component dynamic system. Components in the system are hidden, although there exists partial observability to the decision maker and they deteriorate in time. Several predefined policies under corrective, preventive and predictive maintenance strategies are considered to minimize the total maintenance cost in a planning horizon. The policies are simulated via Dynamic Bayesian Networks on a multi-component system with different policy parameters and cost scenarios, and their performances are evaluated. Results show that when the difference between the corrective and proactive maintenance cost is low, none of the proactive maintenance policies is significantly better than the corrective maintenance. However, when the difference is increased, at least one policy parameter for each proactive maintenance strategy gives significantly lower cost than the corrective maintenance.

Keywords: decision making, dynamic Bayesian networks, maintenance, multi-component systems, reliability

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Authors: Evgeniya Popova, Vladimir Lesnikov, Nikolay Popov

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High yield complex coatings have been designed for thermally stressed cooled HP turbine blades from single crystal alloys ZHS32-VI-VI and ZHS36 with crystallographic orientation [001]. These coatings provide long-term protection of single crystal blades during operation. The three-layer coatings were prepared as follows: the diffusion barrier layer formation on the alloy surface, the subsequent deposition of the condensed bilayer coatings consisting of an inner layer based on Ni-Cr-Al-Y systems and an outer layer based on the alloyed β-phase. The structure, phase composition of complex coatings and reaction zone interaction with the single-crystal alloys ZHS32-VI and ZHS36-VI were investigated using scanning electron microscope (SEM). The effect of complex protective coatings on the properties of heat-resistant nickel alloys was studied.

Keywords: single crystal nickel alloys, complex heat-resistant coatings, structure, phase composition, properties

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Xiaoxian Zhu, Mandella Osei-Assibey Bonsu

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This study explores the effects of national culture on consumer behaviour by identifying the characteristics of Chinese consumers’ decision making in Europe. It offers a better understanding of how cultural factors affect consumers’ behaviour, and how consumers make decisions in other nations with different culture. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted twenty-four in-depth interviews. Grounded theory models are developed to link the causal conditions, process and consequences. Results reveal that some cultural factors including conservatism, emotionality, acquaintance community, long-term orientation and principles affect Chinese consumers when making purchase decisions in Europe. Most Chinese consumers plan and prepare their expenditure and stay in Europe as cultural learners, and purchase durable products or assets as investment, and share their experiences within a community. This study identified potential problems such as political and social environment, complex procedures, and restrictions. This study found that external factors influence on internal factors and then internal characters determine consumer behaviour. This study proposes that cultural traits developed in convergence evolution through social selection and Chinese consumers persist most characters but adapt some perceptions and actions overtime in other countries. This study suggests that cultural marketing could be adopted by companies to reflect consumers’ preferences. Agencies, shops, and the authorities could take actions to reduce the complexity and restrictions.

Keywords: national culture, consumer behaviour, decision making, cultural marketing

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Umugwaneza Francoise, Ntamazeze Janviere, Donghong Ding

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Entrepreneurship has been considered by majority people from developing world as “no other option” kind of career. Consequently, for a long time entrepreneurship in developing countries has been mainly practiced by people who have low or not at all formal education. Even today, to some extent, much of the actions taken by governments, donors and some societies have tendency to consider entrepreneurship as an instrument to lift up the most vulnerable population including uneducated women, school drop outers, people with disabilities and other groups who live with some sort of vulnerability. However, there is a shortage of knowledge based and know-how entrepreneurship in developing countries. Although, the entrepreneurship done with formal educated people would contribute indispensably and sustain the development, the low numbers of formal educated people become entrepreneurs in developing countries. Empirically, this paper investigated the influential factors affecting the entrepreneurial motivation, intentions and decision among African scientists and engineers postgraduate from china universities since 1995 to 2014. Results revealed that 39% are entrepreneurs, 43% work for private sectors and 18% work for governments. Only 6% of respondents are in technological entrepreneurship related to their field of graduation. Study location, mentors or research supervisors and life style are the major factors influenced their decisions to become entrepreneurs whereas complex financial systems and political instability pushed some to employments. Interestingly, significant number of entrepreneurs did not have any entrepreneurial intentions. This paper concludes with suggestions to policy makers and investors in order to encouraging technological entrepreneurs which will provide more opportunities, create jobs and improve people’s quality of life.

Keywords: technological entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurship decision making, entrepreneurship intentions, formal education

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Authors: Cemil Akcay, Goksun Yerlikaya

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Buildings are the living spaces of people with an active role in every aspect of life in today's world. While some structures have survived from the early ages, most of the buildings that completed their lifetime have not transported to the present day. Nowadays, buildings that do not meet the social, economic, and safety requirements of the age return to life with a transformation process. This transformation is called urban transformation. Urban transformation is the renewal of the areas with a risk of disaster and the technological infrastructure required by the structure. The transformation aims to prevent damage to earthquakes and other disasters by rebuilding buildings that have completed their non-earthquake-resistant economic life. It is essential to decide on other issues related to conversion and transformation in places where most of the building stock should transform into the first-degree earthquake belt, such as Istanbul. In urban transformation, property owners, local authority, and contractor must deal at a common point. Considering that hundreds of thousands of property owners are sometimes in the areas of transformation, it is evident how difficult it is to make the deal and decide. For the optimization of these decisions, the use of game theory is foreseeing. The main problem in this study is that the urban transformation is carried out in place, or the building or buildings are transport to a different location. There are many stakeholders in the Istanbul University Cerrahpaşa Medical Faculty Campus, which is planned to be carried out in the process of urban transformation, was tried to solve the game theory applications. An analysis of the decisions given on a real urban transformation project and the logical suitability of decisions taken without the use of game theory were also supervised using game theory. In each step of this study, many decision-makers are classifying according to a specific logical sequence, and in the game trees that emerged as a result of this classification, Nash balances were tried to observe, and optimum decisions were determined. All decisions taken for this project have been subjected to two significant differentiated comparisons using game theory, and as decisions are taken without the use of game theory, and according to the results, solutions for the decision phase of the urban transformation process introduced. The game theory model developed from beginning to the end of the urban transformation process, particularly as a solution to the difficulty of making rational decisions in large-scale projects with many participants in the decision-making process. The use of a decision-making mechanism can provide an optimum answer to the demands of the stakeholders. In today's world for the construction sector, it is also seeing that the game theory is a non-surprising consequence of the fact that it is the most critical issues of planning and making the right decision in future years.

Keywords: urban transformation, the game theory, decision making, multi-actor project

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Authors: Lucian J. Pitt

Abstract:

The primary purpose of this study is to understand the differences in the relationship between working capital management efficiency, working capital investment decisions and working capital finance decisions and the profitability of firms within the context of two African developing economies, Kenya and Nigeria. The study finds that there is a significant difference in the relationship between the firm’s profitability and the working capital variables which suggests different challenges for working capital management in each of these countries.

Keywords: working capital management, working capital investment, working capital finance, profitability, cash conversion cycle

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Authors: Ly Nguyen, Vidit Munshi

Abstract:

During the Covid-19 recession, the United States government has implemented several instruments to mitigate the impacts and revitalize the economy. This paper explores the effects of the various government policy decisions on stock returns, housing prices, and investor psychology during the pandemic in the United States. A numerous previous literature studies on this subject, yet very few focus on the context similar to what we are currently experiencing. Our monthly data covering the period from January 2019 through July 2021 were collected from Datastream. Utilizing the VAR model, we document a dynamic relationship between the market and policy actions throughout the period. In particular, the movements of Unemployment, Stock returns, and Housing prices are strongly sensitive to changes in government policies. Our results also indicate that changes in production level, stock returns, and interest rates decisions influence how investors perceived future market risk and expectations. We do not find any significant nexus between monetary and fiscal policy. Our findings imply that information on government policy and stock market performance provide useful feedback to one another in order to make better decisions in the current and future pandemic. Understanding how the market responds to a shift in government practices has important implications for authorities in implementing policy to avoid assets bubbles and market overreactions. The paper also provides useful implications for investors in evaluating the effectiveness of different policies and diversifying portfolios to minimize systematic risk and maximize returns.

Keywords: Covid-19 recession, United States, government policies, investor psychology, housing prices, stock market returns

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

Abstract:

Recently, an increasing number of researchers have been focusing on working out realistic solutions to sustainability problems. As sustainability issues gain higher importance for organisations, the management of such decisions becomes critical. Knowledge representation is a fundamental issue of complex knowledge based systems. Many types of sustainability problems would benefit from models based on experts’ knowledge. Cognitive maps have been used for analyzing and aiding decision making. A cognitive map can be made of almost any system or problem. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) can successfully represent knowledge and human experience, introducing concepts to represent the essential elements and the cause and effect relationships among the concepts to model the behavior of any system. Integrated waste management systems (IWMS) are complex systems that can be decomposed to non-related and related subsystems and elements, where many factors have to be taken into consideration that may be complementary, contradictory, and competitive; these factors influence each other and determine the overall decision process of the system. The goal of the present paper is to construct an efficient IWMS which considers various factors. The authors’ intention is to propose an expert based system design approach for implementing expert decision support in the area of IWMSs and introduces an appropriate methodology for the development and analysis of group FCM. A framework for such a methodology consisting of the development and application phases is presented.

Keywords: factors, fuzzy cognitive map, group decision, integrated waste management system

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Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

Abstract:

With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

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Authors: Ahmad Mohsin, Syda Fatima, Falak Nawaz, Aman Ullah Khan

Abstract:

Selection of an appropriate architectural style is vital to the success of target web service under development. The nature of architecture design and selection for service-oriented computing applications is quite different as compared to traditional software. Web Services have complex and rigorous architectural styles to choose. Due to this, selection for accurate architectural style for web services development has become a more complex decision to be made by architects. Architectural style selection is a multi-criteria decision and demands lots of experience in service oriented computing. Decision support systems are good solutions to simplify the selection process of a particular architectural style. Our research suggests a new approach using DSS for selection of architectural styles while developing a web service to cater FRs and NFRs. Our proposed DSS helps architects to select right web service architectural pattern according to the domain and non-functional requirements. In this paper, a rule base DSS has been developed using CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) to support decisions using multi-criteria requirements. This DSS takes architectural characteristics, domain requirements and software architect preferences for NFRs as input for different architectural styles in use today in service-oriented computing. Weighted sum model has been applied to prioritize quality attributes and domain requirements. Scores are calculated using multiple criterions to choose the final architecture style.

Keywords: software architecture, web-service, rule-based, DSS, multi-criteria requirements, quality attributes

Procedia PDF Downloads 330