Search results for: behavioral trend

Authors: Assem El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach using the Healthcare Multi-Agent System. The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are: The Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology. The development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases, Healthcare Multi-Agent System

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Intelligent Agent Reservation System (IARS). The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are developing the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and developing an interactive software tool (DECISION) which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, intelligent agent, reservation system, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Dijana Sulejmanović

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Cognitive-behavioral modification (CBM) is a combination of cognitive and behavioral learning principles to shape and encourage the desired behaviors. A crucial element of cognitive-behavioral modification is that a change the behavior precedes awareness of how it affects others. CBM is oriented toward changing inner speech and learning to control behaviors through self-regulation techniques. It aims to teach individuals how to develop the ability to recognize, monitor and modify their thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. The review of literature emphasizes the efficiency the CBM approach in the treatment of children's hyperactivity and negative emotions such as anger. The results of earlier research show how impulsive and hyperactive behavior, agitation, and aggression may slow down and block the child from being able to actively monitor and participate in regular classes, resulting in the disruption of the classroom and the teaching process, and the children may feel rejected, isolated and develop long-term poor image of themselves and others. In this article, we will provide how the use of CBM, adapted to child's age, can incorporate measures of cognitive and emotional functioning which can help us to better understand the children’s cognitive processes, their cognitive strengths, and weaknesses, and to identify factors that may influence their behavioral and emotional regulation. Such a comprehensive evaluation can also help identify cognitive and emotional risk factors associated with aggressive behavior, specifically the processes involved in modulating and regulating cognition and emotions.

Keywords: aggressive behavior, cognitive behavioral modification, cognitive behavioral theory, modification

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr

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Knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall trends has been of great concern for efficient water resource planning, management. In this study annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends over the Sinai Peninsula were analyzed by using absolute homogeneity tests, nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The homogeneity of rainfall time-series was examined using four absolute homogeneity tests namely, the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test. Further, the sequential change in the trend of annual and seasonal rainfalls is conducted using sequential MK (SQMK) method. Then the trend analysis based on discrete wavelet transform technique (DWT) in conjunction with SQMK method is performed. The spatial patterns of the detected rainfall trends were investigated using a geostatistical and deterministic spatial interpolation technique. The results achieved from the Mann–Kendall test to the data series (using the 5% significance level) highlighted that rainfall was generally decreasing in January, February, March, November, December, wet season, and annual rainfall. A significant decreasing trend in the winter and annual rainfall with significant levels were inferred based on the Mann-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. Further, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) analysis reveal that in general, intra- and inter-annual events (up to 4 years) are more influential in affecting the observed trends. The nature of the trend captured by both methods is similar for all of the cases. On the basis of spatial trend analysis, significant rainfall decreases were also noted in the investigated stations. Overall, significant downward trends in winter and annual rainfall over the Sinai Peninsula was observed during the study period.

Keywords: trend analysis, rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, discrete wavelet transform, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Assem I. El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent Railway Control System (MARCS). The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, railway control, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Mahwish Rabia, Najma Najam

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The present study was conducted to identify emotional and behavioral disturbances among earthquake survived children and the perceived coping strategies of affected children. In the present study, a sample of 50 children (6-16 years) belonging to badly affected areas (earthquake) was selected from different camps in Islamabad. Child Behavioral Checklist (CBCL) and Rotter Incomplete Sentence Blank (RISB) interpretations were used to assess variety of emotional and behavioral patterns, and Child Coping Strategies Checklist (CCSC) was used to assess the perceived coping strategies of affected children. Results showed that some of the frequent emotional/behavioral reactions exhibited by children like withdrawal, anxiety\depression, aggression and attention seeking behavior. Whereas gender-based comparisons indicated that female children showed more internalizing behavioral patterns (withdrawn, somatic complaints) as compared to male children who exhibited more externalizing emotions (aggression, delinquent behavior).Coping strategies in which male children tried to adopt Positive Cognitive Restructuring and for distracting attention they used distraction strategies of coping. It is concluded that significant negative emotional and behavioral reactions are exhibited by the earthquake affected children. Male children adopt coping strategies more as compared to female children. The study identifies the negative emotional and behavioral reactions towards trauma, which can be helpful for identifying the problematic area for counseling and therapeutic interventions for these children.

Keywords: behavioural disturbances, emotional disturbances, coping strategies, earthquake, children

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Authors: Sobhan Sobhani

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This study examined the behavioral patterns of student and their determinants according to the "symbolic interaction" sociological perspective in the form of 7 hypotheses. Behavioral patterns of students were classified in 8 categories: religious, scientific, political, artistic, sporting, national, parents and teachers. They were evaluated by student opinions by a five-point Likert rating scale. The statistical population included all male and female students of Islamic Azad University, Behabahan branch, among which 600 patients (268 females and 332 males) were selected randomly. The following statistical methods were used: frequency and percentage, mean, t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient and multi-way analysis of variance. The results obtained from statistical analysis showed that: 1-There is a significant difference between male and female students in terms of disposition to religious figures, artists, teachers and parents. 2-There is a significant difference between students of urban and rural areas in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, political, scientific, artistic, national figures and teachers. 3-The most important criterion for selecting behavioral patterns of students is intellectual understanding with the pattern. 4-The most important factor influencing the behavioral patterns of male and female students is parents followed by friends. 5-Boys are affected by teachers, the Internet and satellite programs more than girls. Girls assume behavioral patterns from books more than boys. 6-There is a significant difference between students in human sciences, technical, medical and engineering disciplines in terms of selecting religious and political figures as behavioral patterns. 7-There is a significant difference between students belonging to different subcultures in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, scientific and cultural figures. 8-Between the first and fourth year students in terms of selecting behavioral patterns, there is a significant difference only in selecting religious figures. 9-There is a significant negative correlation between the education level of parents and the selection of religious and political figures and teachers. 10-There is a significant negative correlation between family income and the selection of political and religious figures.

Keywords: behavioral patterns, behavioral patterns, male and female students, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: Sikander Ali

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English is being used as linguafranca in most of the formal and informal situations of Pakistan. This extensive use has been rapidly replacing the identity of national language of Pakistani.e. Urdu. The nature of syntactic representation has always been the matter of confusion among linguists. Being unaware of the correct plural forms the non-natives commit mistakes while making plurals. But the situation is reverse when non-natives of English irrespective of knowing the right plurals make wrong plurals usually talking in their native language. The observation method was opted to check this hypothesis. Along with it, a checklist has been made in which these certain occurrences have been mentioned, where this flouting of the norms is a normal routine. The result confirms that Pakistani commit this mistake, i.e. ‘tablian’ the plural of tables, ‘filain’ the plural of files, though this is done by them on unconscious level. This emerging trend of unconscious mistake is leading Pakistani bilinguals towards a diglossic situation where they are coining portmanteau.

Keywords: bilinguals, emerging trend, portmanteau, trends

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent TeleRobotic Security Control System (MTSCS). The event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, TeleRobotics control, security, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Liang-Chien Lee, Chih-Hsiang Chang, Ying-Shu Tseng

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Comparing with prior studies mainly focused on the effect of a certain event (it may be the initial announcement of bad news or the repeated announcements of identical bad news) on stock price, the aim of this study is to explore how investors react to subsequent bad news with identical content. Empirical results show that as a result of behavioral pitfalls, investors underreact to the initial announcement of the bad news (i.e., unknown bad news) and overreact to the repeated announcements of the identical bad news (i.e., known bad news).

Keywords: subsequent bad news, behavioral finance, Investors’ misreaction, behavioral pitfalls

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: Swatantra

Abstract:

Hinglish, a blended version of Hindi and English, emerged due to the lack of the competence and command of the speakers over the foreign language, i., e., English. But, amazingly, the trend has gained wide acceptance. In India, this acceptance has gone up to the extent that popular news anchors at the prime time shows are frequently using it. At the moment, instead of being considered a flaw of their presentation Hinglish is emerging as a trendy genre. Its pervasive usage and extensive acceptance is motivating youngsters to opt for the similar kind of patterns. The current study is an endeavour to assess the impact of this trend on the new language learners. With the help of semi-structured interviews, the researcher has tried to gauge the level of comfort and desire to be at par with the other fluent English speakers. The results clearly depict a substantiated boost in the confidence level of learners because they are able to use the vocabulary and sentence patterns of their own choice and convenience. The prevalence and acceptance of the trend in the main stream media have really served as a catalyst and the desire to be at par with the other fluent speakers is also fading away. The users of Hinglish find this trend to be closer to their heart as in the earlier times in the absence of exact translation they had to compromise with the meaning or spirit of the word/phrase / sentence. But now enhanced flexibility is leaving them more comfortable and confident.

Keywords: Hinglish, language learners, linguistic trends, media

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Authors: Khalid Bashir, Hammad Zahid

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Most of the investors consider that economic and financial information is the most important at the time of making investment decisions. But it is not true, as in the past two decades, the Behavioral aspects and the behavioral biases have gained an important place in the decision-making process of an investor. This study is basically conducted on this fact. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of behavioral factors on the decision-making of the individual real estate investor in Pakistan. Some important behavioral factors like overconfidence, anchoring, gambler’s fallacy, home bias, loss aversion, regret aversion, mental accounting, herding and representativeness are used in this study to find their impact on the psychology of individual investors. The targeted population is the real estate investor of Pakistan, and a sample of 650 investors is selected on the basis of convenience sampling technique. The data is collected through the questionnaire with a response rate of 46.15 %. Descriptive statistical techniques and SEM are used to analyze the data by using statistical software. The results revealed the fact that some behavioral factors have a significant impact on the decision-making of investors. Among all the behavioral biases, overconfidence, anchoring, gambler’s fallacy, loss aversion and representativeness have a significant positive impact on the decision-making of the individual investor, while the rest of biases like home bias, regret aversion, mental accounting, herding have less impact on the decision-making process of an individual.

Keywords: behavioral finance, anchoring, gambler’s fallacy, loss aversion

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Alireza Monzavi Chaleshtari, Mahnaz Aliakbari Dehkordi, Seyedeh Somayeh Amiri, Mozhgan Shakhseniaei, Amin Asadi Hieh

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The purpose of this research was to determine the effectiveness of sexual cognitive behavioral therapy on strategic thinking and communication patterns of couples in colostomy patients. In this study, experimental research was conducted with a pre-test and post-test design with a control group and a follow-up period. The statistical population studied were married female colostomy patients referring to the Iranian Ostomy Association. 30 qualified people were selected by voluntary sampling and randomly divided into two experimental and control groups (15 people in each group). Both groups responded to Goleman's strategic thinking (2007) and the communication patterns of Christensen and Sulawai questionnaires (1984). The results of covariance analysis showed that sexual cognitive behavioral therapy has an effect on improving strategic thinking. Based on the results of this test, sexual cognitive behavioral therapy is effective in improving the strategic thinking of colostomy patients until the follow-up stage. Also, sexual cognitive behavioral therapy has an effect on improving the communication patterns of couples in colostomy patients. Based on the results of this test, sexual cognitive behavioral therapy is effective in improving communication patterns of couples in patients with colostomy until the follow-up stage. Based on the results of this research, sexual cognitive behavioral therapy can be used to improve strategic thinking and communication patterns of couples of colostomy patients.

Keywords: sexual cognitive behavioral therapy, strategic thinking, communication patterns of couples, colostomy

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Authors: Benjamin Morse, Michaela Zint, Jennifer Carman

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This study proposes a behavioral model in which ecotourists’ level of observational learning shapes their subsequent environmentally responsible behavioral intentions through ecotourism participation. Unlike past studies that have focused on individual attributes such as attitudes, locus of control, personal responsibility, knowledge, skills or effect, this present study explores select social attributes as potential antecedents to environmentally responsible behaviors. A total of 207 completed questionnaires were obtained from ecotourists in Korea and path analyses were conducted to explore the degree in which the hypothesized model directly and indirectly explained ecotourists’ environmentally responsible behavioral intentions. Results suggest that observational learning and its associated predictors (i.e., engagement, observation, reproduction and reinforcement) are key determinants of ecotourists environmentally responsible behavioral intentions. The application of observational learning proved to be informative, and has a number of implications for improving ecotourism programs. Our model also lays out a theoretical framework for future research.

Keywords: ecotourism, observational learning, environmentally responsible behavior, social learning theory

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Authors: Saeed Dehnavi, Ismail Asadallahi, Fatemeh Rahmatian, Elahe Rahimian

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Purpose: Due to an increasing prevalence of over eating disorders, this paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of short-term group cognitive-behavioral therapy on reducing binge eating behavior and depression symptoms among females suffered from binge eating disorder (BED) in Qazvin, Iran. Methodology: This is aquasi-experimental study (pre-post testing plan with control group). Using a convenience sampling technique, binge eating scale (BES) and clinical interviews, 30 persons were selected among all clients who had referred to weight loss centers in Qazvin, these persons were randomly placed into two control and experimental groups. The experimental group participated in a seven-session plan on short-term cognitive-behavioral group therapy. Results: The results showed that the short term group cognitive-behavioral therapy results in a significant reduction in binge eating signs and depressive symptoms within the experimental group, compared to the control. Conclusion: Regarding the results, it is known that short-term group cognitive-behavioral therapy is effective in reducing overeating symptoms. Hence, it can be used as an economical and effective treatment method for individuals suffering from BED.

Keywords: cognitive-behavioral group therapy, binge eating disorder, depression

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Authors: Ching-Hsu Huang, Si-Qing Hong

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The main purpose of this study is to understand the consumers’ perceptions and attitudes toward food waste in restaurants. The questionnaires were conducted as a research tool to collect data to understand consumers’ food waste behaviors and the most food wasted in terms of their preparation in the restaurant. The subjects were the consumers in the restaurants and asked to fill out the questionnaire, including social responsibility, attitude, behavioral intention and food waste behaviors. 89 questionnaires were collected and the data were analyzed by reliability, descriptive analysis, t-test and ANOVA. The five hypotheses were examined and the results showed there is a significant relationship between social responsibility and behavioral intention; social responsibility and attitude, attitude and behavioral intention. The suggestions and implications were addressed for restauranteurs and further research.

Keywords: food waste behaviors (FWB), social responsibility, consumer attitude, behavioral intention, restaurants

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Authors: S. Shujan, A. T. Rupasinghe, N. L. Gunawardena

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Numerous studies have determined that there is a direct correlation between the successful interviewee and the nonverbal behavioral patterns of that person during the interview. In this study, we focus on formations of interview questions in such a way that, it gets an opportunity for assessing interviewee through the answers using the nonverbal behavioral cues. From all the nonverbal behavioral factors we have identified, in this study priority is given to the ‘facial expression variations’ with the assistance of facial expression analytics tool; this research proposes a novel approach in question formation for the assessment of interviewees in ‘Software Industry’.

Keywords: assessments, hirability, interviews, non-verbal behaviour patterns, question formation

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Authors: Anna M. N. Shifotoka, Richard Walker, Katie Haighton, Richard McNally

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An analysis of trends in Case Notification Rates (CNR) can be used to monitor the impact of Tuberculosis (TB) control interventions over time in order to inform the implementation of current and future TB interventions. A retrospective analysis of trends in TB CNR for two urban regions in Namibia, namely Khomas and Erongo regions, was conducted. TB case notification data were obtained from annual TB reports of the national TB programme, Ministry of Health and Social Services, covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends in CNR for different types of TB groups. A trend was considered to be statistically significant when a p-value was less than 0.05. During the period under review, the crude CNR for all forms of TB declined from 808 to 400 per 100 000 population in Khomas, and from 1051 to 611 per 100 000 population in Erongo. In both regions, significant change points in trends were observed for all types of TB groups examined. In Khomas region, the trend for new smear positive pulmonary TB increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3% to 8.2%) during the period 1997 to 2004, and thereafter declined significantly by -6.2% (95%CI: -7.7% to -4.3%) per year until 2015. Similarly, the trend for smear negative pulmonary TB increased significantly by 23.7% (95%CI: 9.7 to 39.5) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly by an annual change of -26.4% (95%CI: -33.1% to -19.8%). The trend for all forms of TB CNR in Khomas region increased significantly by 8.1% (95%CI: 3.7 to 12.7) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly a rate of -8.7% (95%CI: -10.6 to -6.8). In Erongo region, the trend for smear positive pulmonary TB increased at a rate of 1.2% (95%CI: -1.2% to 3.6%) annually during the earlier years (1997 to 2008), and thereafter declined significantly by -9.3% (95%CI: -13.3% to -5.0%) per year from 2008 to 2015. Also in Erongo, the trend for all forms of TB CNR increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.0% (95%CI: 1.4% to 6.6%) during the years between 1997 to 2006 and thereafter declined significantly by -10.4% (95%CI: -12.7% to -8.0%) per year during 2006 to 2015. The trend for extra-pulmonary TB CNR declined but did not reach statistical significance in both regions. In conclusion, CNRs declined for all types of TB examined in both regions. Further research is needed to study trends for other TB dimensions such as treatment outcomes and notification of drug resistant TB cases.

Keywords: epidemiology, Namibia, temporal trends, tuberculosis

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Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

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In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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Authors: M. T. Bouziane, A. Benkhaled, B. Achour

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In this study, data from 30 catchments in the Chott Melghir basin in the semiarid region of southern East Algeria were analyzed to investigate changes in annual discharge, annual precipitation over the 1965-2005 period. These data were analyzed with the aid of Kendall test trend and regression analysis. The results indicate that the major variations in all catchments discharge in Chott Melghir correspond well to the precipitation. Changes in total annual discharge of Chott Melghir were lower than changes in annual precipitation. Annual precipitation decreased by 66 percent and annual discharge decreased by 4 percent. No significant trend is detected for annual discharge and precipitation at major catchments up to 95% confidence level. The decreasing trend in Chott Melghir discharge is mainly attributed to the decrease of precipitation.

Keywords: trends, climate change, precipitation, discharge, Kendall test, regression analysis, Chott Melghir catchments

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Authors: A. Lakrim, D. Tahri

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This paper sets out a behavioral macro-model of a Merged PiN and Schottky (MPS) diode based on silicon carbide (SiC). This model holds good for both static and dynamic electrothermal simulations for industrial applications. Its parameters have been worked out from datasheets curves by drawing on the optimization method: Simulated Annealing (SA) for the SiC MPS diodes made available in the industry. The model also adopts the Analog Behavioral Model (ABM) of PSPICE in which it has been implemented. The thermal behavior of the devices was also taken into consideration by making use of Foster’ canonical network as figured out from electro-thermal measurement provided by the manufacturer of the device.

Keywords: SiC MPS diode, electro-thermal, SPICE model, behavioral macro-model

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Authors: Sakineh Abbasi Bourondaragh

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The aim of this research is effectiveness of integrative behavioral couples therapy on the communication patterns of couples applying for divorce. We selected (N=20) reports from Tabriz Family Judicial Complex (FJC) of couples which have conflict in their marital relationships. All of reports were released during 2012. First, they were randomly divided into two experimental and control groups and all the couples were given pre-test. They participated in twelve therapy sessions. Then the experimental group was exposed to an experimental intervention, but the control group was not received experimental intervention. The subjects were treated. At the end of treatment, a post-test was performed about subjects (each of two groups).The results showed that integrative behavioral couple therapy could increase and improve communication patterns. The findings also showed that integrative behavioral couples therapy had increased mutual constructive pattern and decreased demand/withdraw pattern and mutual avoidance pattern of CPQ sub-scale. Steady change indicator showed that the difference is clinically meaningful.

Keywords: integrative behavioral couple therapy, communication patterns, cognitive sciences, Family Judicial Complex

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Ethan Petersen

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze the volatility of Apple’s stock beginning January 3, 2005 up to October 9, 2014, then focus on a range from 30 days prior to each product announcement until 30 days after. Product announcements are filtered; announcements whose 60 day range is devoid of other events are separated. This filtration is chosen to isolate, and study, a potential cross-effect. Concerning Apple keynotes, there are two significant dates: the day the invitations to the event are received and the day of the event itself. As such, the statistical analysis is conducted for both invite-centered and event-centered time frames. A comparison to the VIX is made to determine if the trend is simply following the market or deviating. Regardless of the filtration, we find that there is a clear deviation from the market. Comparing these data sets, there are significantly different trends: isolated events have a constantly decreasing, erratic trend in volatility but an increasing, linear trend is observed for clustered events. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we would expect a change when new information is publicly known and the results of this study support this claim.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, event study, volatility, VIX

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Authors: Shashank Bhatnagar, W. Wilfred Godfrey

Abstract:

We develop in this paper, an approach to find the trendy topic, which not only considers the user-topic interaction but also considers the community, in which user belongs. This method modifies the previous approach of user-topic interaction to user-community-topic interaction with better speed-up in the range of [1.1-3]. We assume that trend detection in a social network is dependent on two things. The one is, broadcast of messages in social network governed by self-exciting point process, namely called Hawkes process and the second is, Community Rank. The influencer node links to others in the community and decides the community rank based on its PageRank and the number of users links to that community. The community rank decides the influence of one community over the other. Hence, the Hawkes process with the kernel of user-community-topic decides the trendy topic disseminated into the social network.

Keywords: community detection, community rank, Hawkes process, influencer node, pagerank, trend detection

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Authors: Jay Mar D. Quevedo, Fernando P. Siringan, Cesar L. Villanoy

Abstract:

The influence of the Younger Dryas (YD) event on primary production off the northeast shelf of Luzon, Philippines is examined using sediment cores from two deep sea sites north of the Bicol shelf and with varying relative influence from terrestrial sediment input and the Kuroshio Current. Core A is immediately west of the Kuroshio feeder current and is off the slope while Core B is from a bathymetric high located almost west of Core A. XRF-, CHN- and LOI- derived geochemical proxies are utilized for reconstruction. A decrease in sediment input from ~12.9 to ~11.6 kyr BP corresponding to the YD event is indicated by the proxies, Ti, Al, and Al/Ti, in both cores. This is consistent with the drier climate during this period. Primary productivity indicators in the cores show opposing trends during the YD; Core A shows an increasing trend while Core B shows a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend in Core B can be due to a decrease in terrestrial nutrient input due to a decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, the increasing trend in Core A can be due to a swifter Kuroshio Current caused by a swifter and more southerly NEC bifurcation which in turn is due to a southerly shift of the ITCZ during YD. A stronger Kuroshio feeder would have enhanced upwelling induced by steeper sea surface across the current and by more intense cyclonic gyres due to flow separation where the shelf width suddenly decreases north of the Bicol Shelf.

Keywords: paleoproductivity, younger dryas, Philippines, northeastern Luzon

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Authors: Majid Lotfi Ghahroud, Seyed Jalal Tabatabaei, Ebrahim Karami, AmirArsalan Ghergherechi, Amir Ali Saeidi

Abstract:

In this study, the relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange and whether their relationship -behavioral or risk factors- are discussed. Generally, there are two perspectives; risk-based approach and behavioral approach. According to the risk-based approach due to increase investment, systemic risk and consequently the stock returns are reduced. But due to the second approach, an excessive optimism or pessimism leads to assuming stock price with high investment growth in the past, higher than its intrinsic value and the price of stocks with lower investment growth, less than its intrinsic value. The investigation period is eight years from 2007 to 2014. The sample consisted of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The method is a portfolio test, and the analysis is based on the t-student test (t-test). The results indicate that there is a negative relationship between investment growth and stock returns of companies and this negative correlation is stronger for firms with higher cash flow. Also, the negative relationship between asset growth and stock returns is due to behavioral factors.

Keywords: behavioral theory, investment growth, risk-based theory, stock returns

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