Search results for: asymmetry and extreme risk perception

Authors: Zahraa Albasry, Hadeel D. Najim, Anmar Al-Taie

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Background: Hypertension is considered as one of the most important causes of cardiovascular complications and one of the leading causes of worldwide mortality. Identifying the potential risk factors associated with this medical health problem plays an important role in minimizing its incidence and related complications. The objective of this study is to explore the prevalence of receptor sensitivity regarding assess and understand the perception of specific predictive confounding factors on the prevalence of hypertension (HT) among a sample of Iraqi population in Baghdad, Iraq. Materials and Methods: A randomized cross sectional study was carried out on 100 adult subjects during their visit to the outpatient clinic at a certain sector of Baghdad Province, Iraq. Demographic, clinical and health records alongside specific screening and laboratory tests of the participants were collected and analyzed to detect the potential of confounding factors on the prevalence of HT. Results: 63% of the study participants suffered from HT, most of them were female patients (P < 0.005). Patients aged between 41-50 years old significantly suffered from HT than other age groups (63.5%, P < 0.001). 88.9% of the participants were obese (P < 0.001) and 47.6% had diabetes with HT. Positive family history and sedentary lifestyle were significantly higher among all hypertensive groups (P < 0.05). High salt and fatty food intake was significantly found among patients suffered from isolated systolic hypertension (ISHT) (P < 0.05). A significant positive correlation between packed cell volume (PCV) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = 0.353, P = 0.048) found among normotensive participants. Among hypertensive patients, a positive significant correlation found between triglycerides (TG) and both SBP (r = 0.484, P = 0.031) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (r = 0.463, P = 0.040), while low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c) showed a positive significant correlation with DBP (r = 0.443, P = 0.021). Conclusion: The prevalence of HT among Iraqi populations is of major concern. Further consideration is required to detect the impact of potential risk factors and to minimize blood pressure (BP) elevation and reduce the risk of other cardiovascular complications later in life.

Keywords: Correlation, Hypertension, Iraq, Risk factors

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Yan Zhang, Felix Kin Peng Hui, Colin Duffield, Caroline X. Gao

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In post-pandemic Australia, it is unclear how building occupant have changed their behaviour in their interaction with buildings and other occupants. This research provides information on occupant behaviour change compared to before the pandemic and examines the predictors for those behaviour changes. This paper analyses survey responses from 2298 building occupants in Melbourne to investigate occupant behaviour change and determinants for those changes one year after the pandemic in Australia. The behaviour changes were grouped into three categories based on respiratory infection routes: (1) fomite: hand-shaking and hand hygiene behaviours; (2) airborne: individual interventions to indoor air quality such as face masking, window openings for occupants working in naturally ventilated space; (3) droplets: social distancing, reducing working hours in the workplace. The survey shows that the pandemic has significantly changed occupants' behaviour in all three categories compared to before the pandemic. The changes are significantly associated with occupants' perceived indoor air quality, indoor environmental cleanliness, and occupant density, demonstrating their growing awareness of respiratory infection risk that influences their health behaviours. The two most significant factors identified from multivariate regressions to drive the behaviour change include occupant risk perception of respiratory infections at the workplace and their observed co-worker's behaviour change. Based on the survey results, the paper provides adjusted estimates for related occupant behaviour parameters. The study also discusses alternatives for managing window operations in naturally ventilated buildings to improve occupant satisfaction. This paper could help Building Managers, and Building Designers understand occupant behaviour change to improve building operations and new building design to enhance occupant experience. Also, building energy modellers and risk assessors may use the findings to adjust occupant behaviour-related parameters to improve the models. The findings contribute to the knowledge of Human-Building Interaction.

Keywords: human-building interaction, risk perception, occupant behaviour, IAQ, COVID-19

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Authors: Yi-Tun Huang, Chih-Yang Wu, Shu-Wei Huang

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In this work, we examine fluid mixing in a full three-stream mixing channel with longitudinal vortex generators (LVGs) built on the channel bottom by numerical simulation and experiment. The effects of the asymmetrical arrangement and the attack angle of the LVGs on fluid mixing are investigated. The results show that the micromixer with LVGs at a small asymmetry index (defined by the ratio of the distance from the center plane of the gap between the winglets to the center plane of the main channel to the width of the main channel) is superior to the micromixer with symmetric LVGs and that with LVGs at a large asymmetry index. The micromixer using five mixing modules of the LVGs with an attack angle between 16.5 degrees and 22.5 degrees can achieve excellent mixing over a wide range of Reynolds numbers. Here, we call a section of channel with two pairs of staggered asymmetrical LVGs a mixing module. Besides, the micromixer with LVGs at a small attack angle is more efficient than that with a larger attack angle when pressure losses are taken into account.

Keywords: microfluidics, mixing, longitudinal vortex generators, two stream interfaces

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Authors: S. O. Odebode, O. E. Adelakun

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The study assessed the perception of rural dwellers on the nutritional and social values of mushroom in Oyo state, Nigeria. One hundred and forty respondents were sampled and interviewed. Results showed that majority (84.9%) had below secondary education and 81.4 % were married, with fairly large (71.4%) household size (5–8). Also, 52.1% had favourable perception toward the nutritional values and 57.1% toward the social values of mushrooms in the study area. There was significant relationship between sex (X² = 4.673), educational level (X² = 11.969) and perception on the values of mushroom. The knowledge level of respondents on mushroom utilization and production is low in the study area. Farmers’ research field should be established to educate rural dwellers on mushroom farm practices and utilization.

Keywords: mushroom, nutritional value, rural dwellers, social value

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Authors: Adebusoye Michael, Anthony Gloria, Fasan Temitope, Jacob Anayo

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Background: The culture of fast food consumption has gradually become a common lifestyle in Nigeria especially among young people in urban areas, in spite of the associated adverse health consequences. The adolescent pattern of fast foods consumption and their perception of this practice, as a risk factor for Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs), have not been fully explored. This study was designed to assess fast food consumption pattern and the perception of it as a risk factor for NCDs among undergraduates of Federal Polytechnic, Bauchi. Methodology: The study was descriptive cross-sectional in design. One hundred and eighty-five students were recruited using systematic random sampling method from the two halls of residence. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the consumption pattern of fast foods. Data collected from the questionnaires were analysed using statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) version 16. Simple descriptive statistics, such as frequency counts and percentages were used to interpret the data. Results: The age range of respondents was 18-34 years, 58.4% were males, 93.5% singles and 51.4% of their parents were employed. The majority (100%) were aware of fast foods and (75%) agreed to its implications as NCD. Fast foods consumption distribution included meat pie (4.9%), beef roll/ sausage (2.7%), egg roll (13.5%), doughnut (16.2%), noodles(18%) and carbonated drinks (3.8%). 30.3% consumed thrice in a week and 71% attached workload to high consumption of fast food. Conclusion: It was revealed that a higher social pressure from peers, time constraints, class pressure and school programme had the strong influence on high percentages of higher institutions’ students consume fast foods and therefore nutrition educational campaigns for campus food outlets or vendors and behavioural change communication on healthy nutrition and lifestyles among young people are hereby advocated.

Keywords: fast food consumption, Nigerian polytechnic, risk factors, undergraduate

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Authors: Vipin Kumar, Girish S. Setlur

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Graphene has been recognized as a promising 2D material with many new properties. However, pristine graphene is gapless which hinders its direct application towards graphene-based semiconducting devices. Graphene is a zero-gapp and linearly dispersing semiconductor. Massless charge carriers (quasi-particles) in graphene obey the relativistic Dirac equation. These Dirac fermions show very unusual physical properties such as electronic, optical and transport. Graphene is analogous to two-level atomic systems and conventional semiconductors. We may expect that graphene-based systems will also exhibit phenomena that are well-known in two-level atomic systems and in conventional semiconductors. Rabi oscillation is a nonlinear optical phenomenon well-known in the context of two-level atomic systems and also in conventional semiconductors. It is the periodic exchange of energy between the system of interest and the electromagnetic field. The present work describes the phenomenon of Rabi oscillations in graphene based systems. Rabi oscillations have already been described theoretically and experimentally in the extensive literature available on this topic. To describe Rabi oscillations they use an approximation known as rotating wave approximation (RWA) well-known in studies of two-level systems. RWA is valid only near conventional resonance (small detuning)- when the frequency of the external field is nearly equal to the particle-hole excitation frequency. The Rabi frequency goes through a minimum close to conventional resonance as a function of detuning. Far from conventional resonance, the RWA becomes rather less useful and we need some other technique to describe the phenomenon of Rabi oscillation. In conventional systems, there is no second minimum - the only minimum is at conventional resonance. But in graphene we find anomalous Rabi oscillations far from conventional resonance where the Rabi frequency goes through a minimum that is much smaller than the conventional Rabi frequency. This is known as anomalous Rabi frequency and is unique to graphene systems. We have shown that this is attributable to the pseudo-spin degree of freedom in graphene systems. A new technique, which is an alternative to RWA called asymptotic RWA (ARWA), has been invoked by our group to discuss the phenomenon of Rabi oscillation. Experimentally accessible current density shows different types of threshold behaviour in frequency domain close to the anomalous Rabi frequency depending on the system chosen. For single layer graphene, the exponent at threshold is equal to 1/2 while in case of bilayer graphene, it is computed to be equal to 1. Bilayer graphene shows harmonic (anomalous) resonances absent in single layer graphene. The effect of asymmetry and trigonal warping (a weak direct inter-layer hopping in bilayer graphene) on these oscillations is also studied in graphene systems. Asymmetry has a remarkable effect only on anomalous Rabi oscillations whereas the Rabi frequency near conventional resonance is not significantly affected by the asymmetry parameter. In presence of asymmetry, these graphene systems show Rabi-like oscillations (offset oscillations) even for vanishingly small applied field strengths (less than the gap parameter). The frequency of offset oscillations may be identified with the asymmetry parameter.

Keywords: graphene, Bilayer graphene, Rabi oscillations, Dirac fermion systems

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Authors: Gilang Maulana, Dhika Rahma Qomariah, Yasin Fadil

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Purpose: This research meant to measure the magnitude of the influence of the quality of the presentation to the targeted audience perception in catching information presentation. Design/Methodology/Approach: This research uses a quantitative research method. The kind of data that uses in this research is the primary data. The population in this research are students the economics faculty of Semarang State University. The sampling techniques uses in this research is purposive sampling. The retrieving data uses questionnaire on 30 respondents. The data analysis uses descriptive analysis. Result: The quality of presentation influential positive against perception of the audience. This proved that the more qualified presentation will increase the perception of the audience. Limitation: Respondents were limited to only 30 people.

Keywords: quality of presentation, presentation, audience, perception, semarang state university

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analysed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on ZDIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, serial correlation, Mann Kendall test

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Nopadol Burananuth

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The purposes of this research paper were to study the relationship between the economic factor and political factor, the relationship between political and economic factor and social factor, and the effects of economic factor, political factor, and social factor to the people’s perception about ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). A total of 400 samples were selected from four sub-districts from Arunyaprathet District, Srakaow Province. Data analysis method included multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that political factor depended on trade cooperation, transportation cooperation, and communication cooperation. Social factor was depended on disaster protection, terrorism protection, and international relations. In addition, the people’s perception of the AEC depended on disaster perception, terrorism protection, international relations, transportation cooperation, communication cooperation, interdependence, and labor movement.

Keywords: economic factors, perception, political factors, social factors

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Z. A. Ahmad, R. C. Omar, I. Z. Baharuddin, R. Roslan

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Assessments of social vulnerability, carried out holistically, can provide an important guide to the planning process and to decisions on resource allocation at various levels, and can help to raise public awareness of geo-hazard risks. The assessments can help to provide answers for basic questions such as the human vulnerability at the geo-hazard prone or disaster areas causing health damage, economic loss, loss of natural heritage and vulnerability impact of extreme natural hazard event. To overcome these issues, integrated framework for assessing the increasing human vulnerability to environmental changes caused by geo-hazards will be introduced using an indicator from landslide risk map that is related to agent based modeling platform. The indicators represent the underlying factors, which influence a community’s ability to deal with and recover from the damage associated with geo-hazards. Scope of this paper is particularly limited to landslides.

Keywords: social, vulnerability, geo-hazard, methodology, indicators

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Authors: Pierre Angelo Alino, Rafael Alejandro Ang, Maria Carmela Espanol, Dominic Gerard Ferreol, Jendrietch Adrian Lopez

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This study aims to explore the differences in perception between Generation X and Generation Z towards mental health and mental health illnesses. Through this study, the researchers seek to identify and explore the differences that exist in the generational perception and determine the possible factors that influence the difference in perception. In order to achieve this, we conducted two focus group discussions (FGD), one composed of Generation X and the other composed of Generation Z. Participants for both focus group discussions were recruited through purposive sampling and online recruitment methods. In these discussions, they were asked questions relating to their personal history, experiences with mental health, and related illnesses, as well as their opinions regarding the subject matter. Afterwhich, we analyzed our data through a thematic analysis. Our study’s findings indicate notable differences in the perception of mental health as well as mental illness between the members of Generations X and Z. Additionally, factors such as culture, personal history, and intimate relationships influence the perceptions of mental health between generation groups.

Keywords: generational difference, mental health, mental health illness, perception

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Authors: Suwannee Sroisong, Angkhana Ruenkon, Ronnaphop Eimtab

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The purpose of this study was twofold: First, to examine the relationship of the Readiness on the License Examination Testing (RLET) with factors namely achieved motivation, attitude on testing, self-perception, perception in testing among the nursing students at Baromarajonani College of Nursing, Buddhachinaraj, Thailand (BCNB); and secondly, to investigate the factors affecting the RLET of the nursing students. All data were collected from a set of 214 questionnaires of nursing students, second semester and in academic year 2010, at BCNB. As a set of variables in the questionnaire, it consisted of factors of readiness in testing, achieved motivation, attitude on testing, self-perception, and perception in testing. The following statistics were analyzed: frequency, percentage, means, standard deviation, and Stepwise-multiple regression correlation. Research results were as follows: 1) For the relationship among following factors, namely achieved motivation, attitude on testing, self-perception, perception in testing, there were positive correlation coefficients between .324 to .560 at the .05 level of significance; and 2) One crucial factor affecting the RLET of nursing students, namely achieved motivation, was found. The achieved motivation factor could explain the variance or predict the RLET of nursing students at 31.40 percent and at the .05 level of significance.

Keywords: readiness, nursing, license examination testing, Thailand

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Authors: Supaporn Prajongjai, Pannarungsri Inpayoung

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This research attempts to explore the perception and satisfaction of international tourists toward Thai economy, politics and Bangkok attributes. Due to tourism industry provides a high rate of revenue for Thailand, and the outcome from this business drives every section of Thailand such as business, residents’ living level. Unfortunately, some incidents in the country, such as some turmoil, have ruined the city’s image which obviously impacts to the tourism industry, the major source of revenue. The size of this research was 400 international tourists who visit Bangkok, Thailand during the 1st – 20th March 2009 and age between 20 – 65 years. The results reveal that tourists satisfy with all of Bangkok’s attributes including general attractions, heritage attraction, maintenance factors and cultural attraction. Also, tourists’ perception toward Thai politics is significantly related to their satisfaction of Bangkok’s attributes, but their perception toward Thai economy is not significantly correlated to their satisfaction of Bangkok’s attributes.

Keywords: international tourists' perception, tourists' satisfactions, Thai economy, tourism destination

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Authors: M. Pilgun

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The report presents the results of a study of the specifics of speech perception by actors of video hosting services on the material of urban planning conflicts. To analyze the content, the multimodal approach using neural network technologies is employed. Analysis of word associations and associative networks of relevant stimulus revealed the evaluative reactions of the actors. Analysis of the data identified key topics that generated negative and positive perceptions from the participants. The calculation of social stress and social well-being indices based on user-generated content made it possible to build a rating of road transport construction objects according to the degree of negative and positive perception by actors.

Keywords: social media, speech perception, video hosting, networks

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Authors: Alexander Marx

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Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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Authors: Jaballah Jamil

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KLD (Peter Kinder, Steve Lydenberg and Amy Domini) research & analytics is an independent intermediary of social performance information that adopts an investor-pay model. KLD rating agency does not have an explicit monitoring on the rated firm which suggests that KLD ratings may not include private informations. Moreover, the incapacity of KLD to predict accurately the extra-financial rating of Enron casts doubt on the reliability of KLD ratings. Therefore, we first investigate whether KLD ratings affect investors' perception by studying the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances. Second, we study the impact of the Enron scandal on investors' perception of KLD rating changes by comparing the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances before and after the failure of Enron. We propose an empirical study that relates a number of equally-weighted portfolios returns, excess stock returns and book-to-market ratio to different dimensions of KLD social responsibility ratings. We first find that over the last two decades KLD rating changes influence significantly and negatively stock returns and book-to-market ratio of rated firms. This finding suggests that a raise in corporate social responsibility rating lowers the firm's risk. Second, to assess the Enron scandal's effect on the perception of KLD ratings, we compare the effect of KLD rating changes before and after the Enron scandal. We find that after the Enron scandal this significant effect disappears. This finding supports the view that the Enron scandal annihilates the KLD's effect on Socially Responsible Investors. Therefore, our findings may question results of recent studies that use KLD ratings as a proxy for Corporate Social Responsibility behavior.

Keywords: KLD social rating agency, investors' perception, investment decision, financial performance

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Authors: Sumitta Sawangtook, Parichart Thano

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The purposes of research were to study the relationship between the awareness of sexual risk behaviors and sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students, and to compare the sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students by gender, education level, sweetheart’s number, achievement, sexual value, and the influence of the friendship group. The research sample of 344 sevenths through twelfth grade students in secondary school for the academic year 2014, Dindang district Bangkok was selected by simple random sampling. The research instruments are: 1) demographic questionnaire 2) evaluation form of the awareness of sexual risk behaviors 3) questionnaire about sexual value 4) questionnaire about the influence of the friendship group and 5) evaluation form of sexual risk behaviors. They were used for data collections which are subsequently analyzed by percentage, mean, standard deviation, t-test, One-way Analysis of Variances. The results of this study were presented as follow: 1) The awareness of sexual risk behaviors was negatively correlated with sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students (r=-.27, p=.000). 2) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had gender difference (t=5.90, p=.000). 3) There was no significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of education (t=1.41, p=.16). 4) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of sweetheart’s number (F=13.03, p=.000). 5) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of achievement (F=4.77, p=.009). 6) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of sexual value (F=50.91, p=.000) 7) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of the influence of the friendship group (F=98.41, p=.000).

Keywords: the awareness of sexual risk behaviors, sexual risk behaviors, adolescent students

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Alexander Kelíšek, Denisa Janasová, Veronika Mitašová

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Weak signals using is often associated with early warning. It is possible to find a link between early warning, respectively early problems detection and risk management. The idea of early warning is very important in the context of crisis management because of the risk prevention possibility. Weak signals are likened to risk symptoms. Nowadays, their usefulness as a tool of proactive problems solving is emphasized. Based on it, it is possible to use weak signals not only in strategic planning, project management, or early warning system, but also as a subsidiary element in risk management. The main question is how to effectively integrate weak signals into risk management. The main aim of the paper is to point out the possibilities of weak signals using in small and medium enterprises risk management.

Keywords: early warning system, weak signals, risk management, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Mehul Srivastava, Sharma Tushar Ravikant, Mridul Krishn Mishra

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In structural design, the evaluation of safety and probability failure of structure is of significant importance, mainly when the variables are random. On real structures, structural reliability can be evaluated obtaining an implicit limit state function. The structural reliability limit state function is obtained depending upon the statistically independent variables. In the analysis of reliability, we considered the statistically independent random variables to be the load intensity applied and the depth or height of the beam member considered. There are many approaches for structural reliability problems. In this paper Extreme Learning Machine technique and First Order Second Moment Method is used to determine the reliability indices for the same set of variables. The reliability index obtained using ELM is compared with the reliability index obtained using FOSM. Higher the reliability index, more feasible is the method to determine the reliability.

Keywords: reliability, reliability index, statistically independent, extreme learning machine

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: Shosh Shahrabani, Sharon Teitler-Regev, Helena Desivilya Syna, Fotini Voulgaris, Evangelos Tsoukatos, Vitor Ambrosio, Sandra M. Correia Loureiro

Abstract:

International crises that affect tourism, such as terror attacks, political unrest, and economic crises have become more frequent, and their influence has become broader. The influence of such extreme events depends on their salience in the tourists' awareness. Hence, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying tourists' selection of travel destinations, especially their perceptions of crisis-related events and the impact of the sociopolitical and economic context in their countries of origin. The current study examined how the socio-political and economic context in the home countries of potential young tourists affected their selection of travel destinations. The objective was to elucidate how the salience of various crises (economic and political) in the tourists' perceptions, due to their experiences at home, color their construal of destinations affected by similar hazards and influence their travel intentions. The study focused on student tourists from Israel, Greece, and Portugal. Today about a fifth of international tourism is based on young people, especially students. These countries were chosen since Greece and Portugal are in the midst of economic crises. In addition, Greece and Portugal have experienced political instability, while Israel has security-related problems (including terrorist incidents). In 2013, a total of 648 students, responded to a questionnaire that included questions concerning attitudes and risk perceptions regarding travel to destinations with various risk hazards as well as socio-demographic details. The results indicate that over half of the Israelis intend to visit Greece or Portugal. The majority of the Portuguese intend to visit Greece, while less than a third of them intend to visit Israel. About half of the Greeks intend to visit Portugal, and most of them do not intend to visit Israel. The results indicate that greater perceived importance of economic crises mitigates the intention to travel to destinations with economic crises for tourists from origin countries that are also marked by economic crises, such as Greece and Portugal. However, for tourists from Israel, a country with a relatively stable economy, issues related to the economy barely affect their intention to travel to the other two countries. The findings also suggest that Greeks and Portuguese who are highly concerned about political unrest are unlikely to select Israel as a tourist destination. In addition, strong apprehension regarding terrorism impedes the intention to travel to destinations marked by terrorist incidents, such as Israel. The current research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the impact of travelers' personal previous experience with crisis on their risk perceptions and in turn on their intentions to travel to countries with similar risks. Therefore, in a world where such incidents are on the rise, understanding tourists' risk perceptions and behavior and the factors influencing their destination-related decisions are crucial for countries that wish to increase the numbers of incoming tourists.

Keywords: economic crises, political instability, risk perception, young tourists

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Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

Abstract:

Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result, there is always a risk that they could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of the structural damage that may be countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to judge better and quantify the risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk so that they do not become victims.

Keywords: damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Muneer Abbad

Abstract:

In search of better, traditional learning universities have expanded their ways to deliver knowledge and integrate cost effective e-learning systems. Universities’ use of information and communication technologies has grown tremendously over the last decade. To ensure efficient use of the e-learning system, this project aimed to evaluate the good and bad practices, detect errors and determine areas for further improvements in usage. This project critically evaluated the students’ perception of the e-learning system and recommended changes to improve students’ e-learning usage, through conducting questionnaire given to the students that have experience with e-learning systems. Results of the study indicated that, in general, students have favourable perceptions toward using the e-learning system. They seemed to value the resources tool and its contribution to building their knowledge more than other e-learning tools. However, they seemed to perceive a limited value from the audio or video podcasts. This study has shown that technology acceptance is the most variable, factor that contributes to students’ perception and satisfaction of the e-learning system.

Keywords: e-learning, perception, Jordan, universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 454