Search results for: Storm B. Watson
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 233

Search results for: Storm B. Watson

83 Coastal Vulnerability under Significant Sea Level Rise: Risk and Adaptation Measures for Mumbai

Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
82 Management of Urban Wastewater in the City of Maradi (Niger): The Case of Domestic Wastewater

Authors: Saidou Hassidou, Laminou Ary Mahaman Moustapha

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Uncontrolled urbanization of African cities, plus the lack of municipal waste management services in these cities, generate landscapes become places of multiple and varied interactions between health and environment. In this sense, under strong urban growth in a context of sub-equipment sanitation, the city of Maradi doesn’t escape to this situation which results in the spread of pollution (release of unpleasant odors, proliferation of mosquitoes) and many diseases posing multiple health problems. Our study focuses only on liquid waste especially domestic wastewater. To study the different domestic wastewater management options in the town of Maradi, a survey was conducted among 340 households in 17 districts. We note in most cases a crucial of waste management infrastructure (drainage and wastewater treatment) at the city. Thus, only the individual sanitation facilities are used. In the town of Maradi, in addition to the storm drains, there are, in old districts, ditches that discharge wastewater and unfortunately end up in rivers without treatment. Domestic wastewater total production is estimated at 86,761.28 m3 per day. This water is mostly from laundry activities, bathing, dishes, and is discharged in large part through the streets, by more than 60% of households. Also, pit emptying is performed at 39.11% by the vehicle Peugeot tank. The quality of service rendered by an actor is very important to encourage households to join. Existing autonomous sanitation facilities are poorly designed and poorly maintained. Fecal sludge is dumped in a hole near saturated latrines; this work is mainly done by manual scavengers or dumped in fields or on nearby vacant land concessions.

Keywords: management, urban wastewater, domestic wastewater, Maradi, Niger

Procedia PDF Downloads 244
81 Development of IDF Curves for Precipitation in Western Watershed of Guwahati, Assam

Authors: Rajarshi Sharma, Rashidul Alam, Visavino Seleyi, Yuvila Sangtam

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The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationship of rainfall amounts is one of the most commonly used tools in water resources engineering for planning, design and operation of water resources project, or for various engineering projects against design floods. The establishment of such relationships was reported as early as in 1932 (Bernard). Since then many sets of relationships have been constructed for several parts of the globe. The objective of this research is to derive IDF relationship of rainfall for western watershed of Guwahati, Assam. These relationships are useful in the design of urban drainage works, e.g. storm sewers, culverts and other hydraulic structures. In the study, rainfall depth for 10 years viz. 2001 to 2010 has been collected from the Regional Meteorological Centre Borjhar, Guwahati. Firstly, the data has been used to construct the mass curve for duration of more than 7 hours rainfall to calculate the maximum intensity and to form the intensity duration curves. Gumbel’s frequency analysis technique has been used to calculate the probable maximum rainfall intensities for a period of 2 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 50 yr, 100 yr from the maximum intensity. Finally, regression analysis has been used to develop the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. Thus, from the analysis the values for the constants ‘a’,‘b’ &‘c’ have been found out. The values of ‘a’ for which the sum of the squared deviation is minimum has been found out to be 40 and when the corresponding value of ‘c’ and ‘b’ for the minimum squared deviation of ‘a’ are 0.744 and 1981.527 respectively. The results obtained showed that in all the cases the correlation coefficient is very high indicating the goodness of fit of the formulae to estimate IDF curves in the region of interest.

Keywords: intensity-duration-frequency relationship, mass curve, regression analysis, correlation coefficient

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80 Limited Component Evaluation of the Effect of Regular Cavities on the Sheet Metal Element of the Steel Plate Shear Wall

Authors: Seyyed Abbas Mojtabavi, Mojtaba Fatzaneh Moghadam, Masoud Mahdavi

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Steel Metal Shear Wall is one of the most common and widely used energy dissipation systems in structures, which is used today as a damping system due to the increase in the construction of metal structures. In the present study, the shear wall of the steel plate with dimensions of 5×3 m and thickness of 0.024 m was modeled with 2 floors of total height from the base level with finite element method in Abaqus software. The loading is done as a concentrated load at the upper point of the shear wall on the second floor based on step type buckle. The mesh in the model is applied in two directions of length and width of the shear wall, equal to 0.02 and 0.033, respectively, and the mesh in the models is of sweep type. Finally, it was found that the steel plate shear wall with cavity (CSPSW) compared to the SPSW model, S (Mises), Smax (In-Plane Principal), Smax (In-Plane Principal-ABS), Smax (Min Principal) increased by 53%, 70%, 68% and 43%, respectively. The presence of cavities has led to an increase in the estimated stresses, but their presence has caused critical stresses and critical deformations created to be removed from the inner surface of the shear wall and transferred to the desired sections (regular cavities) which can be suggested as a solution in seismic design and improvement of the structure to transfer possible damage during the earthquake and storm to the desired and pre-designed location in the structure.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall, abacus software, finite element method, , boundary element, seismic structural improvement, von misses stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
79 Hydrological Modelling of Geological Behaviours in Environmental Planning for Urban Areas

Authors: Sheetal Sharma

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Runoff,decreasing water levels and recharge in urban areas have been a complex issue now a days pointing defective urban design and increasing demography as cause. Very less has been discussed or analysed for water sensitive Urban Master Plans or local area plans. Land use planning deals with land transformation from natural areas into developed ones, which lead to changes in natural environment. Elaborated knowledge of relationship between the existing patterns of land use-land cover and recharge with respect to prevailing soil below is less as compared to speed of development. The parameters of incompatibility between urban functions and the functions of the natural environment are becoming various. Changes in land patterns due to built up, pavements, roads and similar land cover affects surface water flow seriously. It also changes permeability and absorption characteristics of the soil. Urban planners need to know natural processes along with modern means and best technologies available,as there is a huge gap between basic knowledge of natural processes and its requirement for balanced development planning leading to minimum impact on water recharge. The present paper analyzes the variations in land use land cover and their impacts on surface flows and sub-surface recharge in study area. The methodology adopted was to analyse the changes in land use and land cover using GIS and Civil 3d auto cad. The variations were used in  computer modeling using Storm-water Management Model to find out the runoff for various soil groups and resulting recharge observing water levels in POW data for last 40 years of the study area. Results were anlayzed again to find best correlations for sustainable recharge in urban areas.

Keywords: geology, runoff, urban planning, land use-land cover

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78 Theoretical Investigations and Simulation of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves in the Earth’s Magnetosphere Through Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

Authors: A. A. Abid

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Wave-particle interactions are considered to be the paramount in the transmission of energy in collisionless space plasmas, where electromagnetic fields confined the charged particles movement. One of the distinct features of energy transfer in collisionless plasma is wave-particle interaction which is ubiquitous in space plasmas. The three essential populations of the inner magnetosphere are cold plasmaspheric plasmas, ring-currents, and radiation belts high energy particles. The transition region amid such populations initiates wave-particle interactions among distinct plasmas and the wave mode perceived in the magnetosphere is the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave. These waves can interact with numerous particle species resonantly, accompanied by plasma particle heating is still in debate. In this work we paid particular attention to how EMIC waves impact plasma species, specifically how they affect the heating of electrons and ions during storm and substorm in the Magnetosphere. Using Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission and electromagnetic hybrid simulation, this project will investigate the energy transfer mechanism (e.g., Landau interactions, bounce resonance interaction, cyclotron resonance interaction, etc.) between EMIC waves and cold-warm plasma populations. Other features such as the production of EMIC waves and the importance of cold plasma particles in EMIC wave-particle interactions will also be worth exploring. Wave particle interactions, electromagnetic hybrid simulation, electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, space plasmas, inner magnetosphere

Keywords: MMS, magnetosphere, wave particle interraction, non-maxwellian distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 25
77 An Examination of the Benefits of Disciplinary Classroom Support of Word Study, Vocabulary and Comprehension for Adolescent Students

Authors: Amanda Watson

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The goal of this project is to create the conditions wherein every teacher, especially subjectarea experts, sees themselves as a teacher of language and vocabulary. Assessment and observational data suggest that students are not getting the support they need in vocabulary and reading comprehension, and secondary teachers do not currently have the confidence or expertise to provide this support. This study seeks to examine the impact of 10-20 minutes of daily, targeted instruction around orthography and vocabulary on student competence with the navigation of complex vocabulary and comprehension of subject-specific concepts and texts. The first phase of the pilot included 6 participating classroom teachers of grades 9 and 10 English (95 students in total) who administered an initial reading comprehension assessment. The results of this assessment indicated that the vast majority of students were reading below grade level. Teachers were then provided with a slide deck of complete lessons on orthography, vocabulary (etymology, roots and affixes) and reading comprehension strategies. For five weeks, teachers delivered lessons with their students, implementing the recommended evidence-based teaching strategies. Students and teachers completed surveys to provide feedback on the value and impact of the method. The results confirmed that this was new learning for the students and that the teaching strategies improved engagement. The lessons succeeded in providing equitable access to challenge by simultaneously offering theoretical learning to proficient readers, and exposure and practice to weaker readers. A second reading comprehension was administered after 5 weeks of daily instruction. Average scores increased by 41%, and almost every student experienced progress. The first phase was not long enough to measure the impact of the method on vocabulary acquisition or reading comprehension of subject-specific texts, however. The project will use the results of the first phase to design the second phase, and new teaching and learning strategies will be added. The goals of the second phases are to increase motivation, and to grow the daily practice beyond English class and into science and / or math. This team will continue to document a continuation of the daily lessons, Commented [E1]: Please do not use rhetorical questions in the abstract. measure the impact of the strategies, and address questions about the correlation between daily practice and improvements in the skills students need for vocabulary acquisition and disciplinary reading comprehension.

Keywords: adolescent, comprehension, orthography, reading, vocabulary, etymology, word study, disciplinary, teaching strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 43
76 Identification and Characterization of Groundwater Recharge Sites in Kuwait

Authors: Dalal Sadeqi

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Groundwater is an important component of Kuwait’s water resources. Although limited in quantity and often poor in quality, the significance of this natural source of water cannot be overemphasized. Recharge of groundwater in Kuwait occurs during periodical storm events, especially in open desert areas. Runoff water dissolves accumulated surficial meteoric salts and subsequently leaches them into the groundwater following a period of evaporative enrichment at or near the soil surface. Geochemical processes governing groundwater recharge vary in time and space. Stable isotope (18O and 2H) and geochemical signatures are commonly used to gain some insight into recharge processes and groundwater salinization mechanisms, particularly in arid and semiarid regions. This article addresses the mechanism used in identifying and characterizing the main water shed areas in Kuwait using stable isotopes in an attempt to determine favorable groundwater recharge sites in the country. Stable isotopes of both rainwater and groundwater were targeted in different hydrogeological settings. Additionally, data and information obtained from subsurface logs in the study area were collected and analyzed to develop a better understanding of the lateral and vertical extent of the groundwater aquifers. Geographic Information System (GIS) and RockWorks 3D modelling software were used to map out the hydrogeomorphology of the study area and the subsurface lithology of the investigated aquifers. The collected data and information, including major ion chemistry, isotopes, subsurface characteristics, and hydrogeomorphology, were integrated in a GIS platform to identify and map out suitable natural recharge areas as part of an integrated water resources management scheme that addresses the challenges of the sustainability of the groundwater reserves in the country.

Keywords: scarcity, integrated, recharge, isotope

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75 Investigation on Remote Sense Surface Latent Heat Temperature Associated with Pre-Seismic Activities in Indian Region

Authors: Vijay S. Katta, Vinod Kushwah, Rudraksh Tiwari, Mulayam Singh Gaur, Priti Dimri, Ashok Kumar Sharma

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The formation process of seismic activities because of abrupt slip on faults, tectonic plate moments due to accumulated stress in the Earth’s crust. The prediction of seismic activity is a very challenging task. We have studied the changes in surface latent heat temperatures which are observed prior to significant earthquakes have been investigated and could be considered for short term earthquake prediction. We analyzed the surface latent heat temperature (SLHT) variation for inland earthquakes occurred in Chamba, Himachal Pradesh (32.5 N, 76.1E, M-4.5, depth-5km) nearby the main boundary fault region, the data of SLHT have been taken from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In this analysis, we have calculated daily variations with surface latent heat temperature (0C) in the range area 1⁰x1⁰ (~120/KM²) with the pixel covering epicenter of earthquake at the center for a three months period prior to and after the seismic activities. The mean value during that period has been considered in order to take account of the seasonal effect. The monthly mean has been subtracted from daily value to study anomalous behavior (∆SLHT) of SLHT during the earthquakes. The results found that the SLHTs adjacent the epicenters all are anomalous high value 3-5 days before the seismic activities. The abundant surface water and groundwater in the epicenter and its adjacent region can provide the necessary condition for the change of SLHT. To further confirm the reliability of SLHT anomaly, it is necessary to explore its physical mechanism in depth by more earthquakes cases.

Keywords: surface latent heat temperature, satellite data, earthquake, magnetic storm

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74 Psychiatric Risk Assessment in the Emergency Department: The Impact of NEAT on the Management of Mental Health Patients

Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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73 Phonology and Syntax of Article Incorporation in Mauritian Creole: Evidence from Bantou Languages

Authors: Emmanuel Nikiema

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This paper examines article incorporation in Mauritian Creole, a French Lexifier Creole which exhibits three forms of article incorporation as illustrated in (1-3). While various analyses of article incorporation have been proposed in the literature, fewer studies have explored the motivation of this widespread phenomenon in Mauritian Creole (MC) as opposed to other French Lexifier Creoles spoken in the Caribbean. For example, Mauritian Creole exhibits 4 times more CV incorporation than Haitian Creole, and 40 times more than Reunion Creole. (1) Consonantal type (C): loraz ‘thunder storm’, lete ‘summer’, zwazo ‘bird’, nide ‘idea’. (2) Syllabic type (CV): lapo ‘skin’, liku ‘neck’, ledo ‘back’, leker ‘heart’, diber ‘butter’. (3) Bi-consonantal (CVC): delo ‘water’, dizef ‘egg’, lizye ‘eye’, dilwil ‘oil’. The goal of this study is twofold: 1) uncover the rules governing the three types of article incorporation in MC, and 2) account for its remarkable occurrence in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole. We have collected a corpus of over 700 cases and organized it into three categories (C; CV and CVC). For example, there are 471 examples of CV incorporation in MC against 112 in Haitian Creole and only 12 in Reunion Creole. Two questions can be raised: 1) what is the motivation and distribution of the three types of incorporation in MC, and 2) how can one account for the high volume of incorporation in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole? We suggest that article incorporation in MC is related to the structure of nouns in Bantou languages. While previous authors have largely used population settlement data in the colonies during the Creole formation period to justify their analyses, we propose an account based on the syntactic structure of Bantou nouns. This analysis will shed light on the contribution of African languages to the formation of MC, and on to why MC has exhibited more article incorporation cases than any other French Lexifier Creole.

Keywords: article incorporation, creole languages, description, phonology

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
72 Determination of the Runoff Coefficient in Urban Regions, an Example from Haifa, Israel

Authors: Ayal Siegel, Moshe Inbar, Amatzya Peled

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This study examined the characteristic runoff coefficient in different urban areas. The main area studied is located in the city of Haifa, northern Israel. Haifa spreads out eastward from the Mediterranean seacoast to the top of the Carmel Mountain range with an elevation of 300 m. above sea level. For this research project, four watersheds were chosen, each characterizing a different part of the city; 1) Upper Hadar, a spacious suburb on the upper mountain side; 2) Qiryat Eliezer, a crowded suburb on a level plane of the watershed; 3) Technion, a large technical research university which is located halfway between the top of the mountain range and the coast line. 4) Keret, a remote suburb, on the southwestern outskirts of Haifa. In all of the watersheds found suitable, instruments were installed to continuously measure the water level flowing in the channels. Three rainfall gauges scattered in the study area complete the hydrological requirements for this research project. The runoff coefficient C in peak discharge events was determined by the Rational Formula. The main research finding is the significant relationship between the intensity of rainfall, and the impervious area which is connected to the drainage system of the watershed. For less intense rainfall, the full potential of the connected impervious area will not be exploited. As a result, the runoff coefficient value decreases as do the peak discharge rate and the runoff yield from the storm event. The research results will enable application to other areas by means of hydrological model to be be set up on GIS software that will make it possible to estimate the runoff coefficient of any given city watershed.

Keywords: runoff coefficient, rational method, time of concentration, connected impervious area.

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71 Effectiveness of Conflict Resolution Board Game: An Experimental Research

Authors: Safa Abdussalam

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Adolescence is a period of storm and stress. It is a transitional period. Adolescents undergo a lot of changes physically, emotionally and mentally during adolescence. Physical changes include puberty, sexual maturation, changes in height, weight, hormonal changes, changes in body image, changes in brain and in sexuality. Changes also occur in their cognition. According to Piaget’s theory, adolescent enter formal operational stage and engage in hypothetical-deductive reasoning. Main characteristic of adolescent cognition is adolescent egocentrism: imaginary audience and personal fable. One of the most common struggle majority of adolescents face is the conflict between parent and adolescent. They often complain that parents do not understand them/their situation. Common topics of conflict include identity crisis, issues with personal freedom and issues over personal preferences. Conflict resolution refers to solving conflicts in a healthy way. There is a lack of resources in dealing with such conflicts creatively. To deal with parent-adolescent conflict, a conflict resolution board game is designed. The board game consists of tokens, dice, 10 conflict situation cards and two conflict resolution sheets. Purpose of using a board game is to help adolescents understand the conflict situations and resolutions in a fun, creative and interactive way. It can be used for self-help or even therapists can use it in their clinical practice. The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the board game in dealing with the conflict. Experimental design will be used. Samples include 15 adolescents belonging to age group 10-19. Samples will be divided into two groups: Experimental group and control group. A pre-test and post-test will be conducted. The board game will be demonstrated to the experimental group. Results will be obtained after statistical analysis. Board games are a great way to be used with children and adolescents.

Keywords: adolescent, adolescence, parent-child conflict, conflict resolution

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70 Study on the Effect of Different Media on Green Roof Water Retention

Authors: Chen Zhi-Wei, Hsieh Wei-Fang

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Taiwan annual rainfall is global average of 2.5 times, plus city excessive development, green constantly to reduced, instead of is big area of artificial base disc, makes Taiwan rainy season during occurred of storm cannot timely of emissions, led to flood constantly, and rain also cannot was retained again using, led to city hydrological balance suffered damage, and to Regulation city of by brings of negative effect, increased green covered rate became most effective of method, and city land limited, so roof green gradually became a alternative program. Green roofs have become one of the Central and local government policy initiatives for urban development, in foreign countries, such as the United States, and Japan, and Singapore etc. Development of roof greening as an important policy, has become a trend of the times. In recent years, many experts and scholars are also on the roof greening all aspects of research, mostly for green roof for the environmental impact of benefits, such as: carbon reduction, cooling, thermostat, but research on the benefits of green roofs under water cut but it is rare. Therefore, this research literature from green roof in to view and analyze what kind of medium suitable for roof greening and use of green base plate combination simulated green roof structure, via different proportions of the medium with water retention plate and drainage board, experiment with different planting base plate combination of water conservation performance. Research will want to test the effect of roof planting base mix, promotion of relevant departments and agencies in future implementation of green roofs, prompted the development of green roofs, which in the end Taiwan achieve sustainable development of the urban environment help.

Keywords: thin-layer roof greening and planting medium, water efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 326
69 Decision Support Tool for Selecting Appropriate Sustainable Rainwater Harvesting Based System in Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Omolara Lade, David Oloke

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The approach to water management worldwide is currently in transition, with a shift from centralised infrastructures to greater consideration of decentralised technologies, such as rainwater harvesting (RWH). However, in Nigeria, implementation of sustainable water management, such as RWH systems, is inefficient and social, environmental and technical barriers, concerns and knowledge gaps exist, which currently restrict its widespread utilisation. This inefficiency contributes to water scarcity, water-borne diseases, and loss of lives and property due to flooding. Meanwhile, several RWH technologies have been developed to improve SWM through both demand and storm-water management. Such technologies involve the use of reinforced concrete cement (RCC) storage tanks, surface water reservoirs and ground-water recharge pits as storage systems. A framework was developed to assess the significance and extent of water management problems, match the problems with existing RWH-based solutions and develop a robust ready-to-use decision support tool that can quantify the costs and benefits of implementing several RWH-based storage systems. The methodology adopted was the mixed method approach, involving a detailed literature review, followed by a questionnaire survey of household respondents, Nigerian Architects and Civil Engineers and focus group discussion with stakeholders. 18 selection attributes have been defined and three alternatives have been identified in this research. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS, excel and selected statistical methods to derive weightings of the attributes for the tool. Following this, three case studies were modelled using RainCycle software. From the results, the MDA model chose RCC tank as the most appropriate storage system for RWH.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, modelling, hydraulic assessment, whole life cost, decision support system

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68 Climate Change and Its Impacts: The Case of Coastal Fishing Communities of the Meghna River in South-Central Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny

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The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.

Keywords: adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood

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67 Impact of Geomagnetic Variation over Sub-Auroral Ionospheric Region during High Solar Activity Year 2014

Authors: Arun Kumar Singh, Rupesh M. Das, Shailendra Saini

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The present work is an attempt to evaluate the sub-auroral ionospheric behavior under changing space weather conditions especially during high solar activity year 2014. In view of this, the GPS TEC along with Ionosonde data over Indian permanent scientific base 'Maitri', Antarctica (70°46′00″ S, 11°43′56″ E) has been utilized. The results suggested that the nature of ionospheric responses to the geomagnetic disturbances mainly depended upon the status of high latitudinal electro-dynamic processes along with the season of occurrence. Fortunately, in this study, both negative and positive ionospheric impact to the geomagnetic disturbances has been observed in a single year but in different seasons. The study reveals that the combination of equator-ward plasma transportation along with ionospheric compositional changes causes a negative ionospheric impact during summer and equinox seasons. However, the combination of pole-ward contraction of the oval region along with particle precipitation may lead to exhibiting positive ionospheric response during the winter season. Other than this, some Ionosonde based new experimental evidence also provided clear evidence of particle precipitation deep up to the low altitudinal ionospheric heights, i.e., up to E-layer by the sudden and strong appearance of E-layer at 100 km altitudes. The sudden appearance of E-layer along with a decrease in F-layer electron density suggested the dominance of NO⁺ over O⁺ at a considered region under geomagnetic disturbed condition. The strengthening of E-layer is responsible for modification of auroral electrojet and field-aligned current system. The present study provided a good scientific insight on sub-auroral ionospheric to the changing space weather condition.

Keywords: high latitude ionosphere, space weather, geomagnetic storms, sub-storm

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66 Urban Water Logging Adversity: A Case Study on Disruption of Urban Landscape Due to Water Logging Problems and Probable Analytical Solutions for Urban Region on Port City Chittagong, Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Obidul Haque, Abbasi Khanm

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Port city Chittagong, the commercial capital of Bangladesh, is flourished with fascinating topography and climatic context along with basic resources for livelihood; both shape this city and become living archives of its ecologies. Chittagong has been witnessing numerous urban development measures being taken by city development authority, though some of those seem incomplete because of lack of proper planning. Due to this unplanned trail, the blessings of nature have become the reason of sufferings for city dwellers. One of which is the water clogging due to heavy rainfall, seepage, high tide, absence of well-knit underground drainage system, and so on. The problem has reached such an extent that the first monsoon rain is enough to shut down the entire city and causing immense sufferings to livestock, specially most vulnerable groups such as children and office going people. Study shows that total discharge is higher than present drainage capacity of the canals, thus, resulting in overflow, as major channels are clogged up by dumping waste or illegal encroachment, which are supposed to flush out rain water. This paper aims to address natural and manmade causes behind urban water clogging, adverse socio-environmental hazardous effects, possibilities for probable solutions on basis of local people’s experience and rational urban planning and landscape architectural proposals such as facilitating well planned drainage system, along with waste management policies etc. which can be able to intervene in these movements to activate the mighty port city’s unfulfilled potentials.

Keywords: drainage, high-tide, urban storm water logging (USWL), urban planning, water management

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65 The Impact of Dust Storm Events on the Chemical and Toxicological Characteristics of Ambient Particulate Matter in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

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In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

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64 Impact of Urbanization on Natural Drainage Pattern in District of Larkana, Sindh Pakistan

Authors: Sumaira Zafar, Arjumand Zaidi

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During past few years, several floods have adversely affected the areas along lower Indus River. Besides other climate related anomalies, rapidly increasing urbanization and blockage of natural drains due to siltation or encroachments are two other critical causes that may be responsible for these disasters. Due to flat topography of river Indus plains and blockage of natural waterways, drainage of storm water takes time adversely affecting the crop health and soil properties of the area. Government of Sindh is taking a keen interest in revival of natural drainage network in the province and has initiated this work under Sindh Irrigation and Drainage Authority. In this paper, geospatial techniques are used to analyze landuse/land-cover changes of Larkana district over the past three decades (1980-present) and their impact on natural drainage system. Satellite derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic sheets (recent and 1950) are used to delineate natural drainage pattern of the district. The urban landuse map developed in this study is further overlaid on drainage line layer to identify the critical areas where the natural floodwater flows are being inhibited by urbanization. Rainfall and flow data are utilized to identify areas of heavy flow, whereas, satellite data including Landsat 7 and Google Earth are used to map previous floods extent and landuse/cover of the study area. Alternatives to natural drainage systems are also suggested wherever possible. The output maps of natural drainage pattern can be used to develop a decision support system for urban planners, Sindh development authorities and flood mitigation and management agencies.

Keywords: geospatial techniques, satellite data, natural drainage, flood, urbanization

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63 Implementation of Learning Disability Annual Review Clinics to Ensure Good Patient Care, Safety, and Equality in Covid-19: A Two Pass Audit in General Practice

Authors: Liam Martin, Martha Watson

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Patients with learning disabilities (LD) are at increased risk of physical and mental illness due to health inequality. To address this, NICE recommends that people from the age of 14 with a learning disability should have an annual LD health check. This consultation should include a holistic review of the patient’s physical, mental and social health needs with a view of creating an action plan to support the patient’s care. The expected standard set by the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is that each general practice should review at least 75% of their LD patients annually. During COVID-19, there have been barriers to primary care, including health anxiety, the shift to online general practice and the increase in GP workloads. A surgery in North London wanted to assess whether they were falling short of the expected standard for LD patient annual reviews in order to optimize care post Covid-19. A baseline audit was completed to assess how many LD patients were receiving their annual reviews over the period of 29th September 2020 to 29th September 2021. This information was accessed using EMIS Web Health Care System (EMIS). Patients included were aged 14 and over as per QOF standards. Doctors were not notified of this audit taking place. Following the results of this audit, the creation of learning disability clinics was recommended. These clinics were recommended to be on the ground floor and should be a dedicated time for LD reviews. A re-audit was performed via the same process 6 months later in March 2022. At the time of the baseline audit, there were 71 patients aged 14 and over that were on the LD register. 54% of these LD patients were found to have documentation of an annual LD review within the last 12 months. None of the LD patients between the ages of 14-18 years old had received their annual review. The results were discussed with the practice, and dedicated clinics were set up to review their LD patients. A second pass of the audit was completed 6 months later. This showed an improvement, with 84% of the LD patients registered at the surgery now having a documented annual review within the last 12 months. 78% of the patients between the ages of 14-18 years old had now been reviewed. The baseline audit revealed that the practice was not meeting the expected standard for LD patient’s annual health checks as outlined by QOF, with the most neglected patients being between the ages of 14-18. Identification and awareness of this vulnerable cohort is important to ensure measures can be put into place to support their physical, mental and social wellbeing. Other practices could consider an audit of their annual LD health checks to make sure they are practicing within QOF standards, and if there is a shortfall, they could consider implementing similar actions as used here; dedicated clinics for LD patient reviews.

Keywords: COVID-19, learning disability, learning disability health review, quality and outcomes framework

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62 Improving Predictions of Coastal Benthic Invertebrate Occurrence and Density Using a Multi-Scalar Approach

Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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61 Climate Change Impact on Slope Stability: A Study of Slope Drainage Design and Operation

Authors: Elena Mugarza, Stephanie Glendinning, Ross Stirling, Colin Davies

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The effects of climate change and increased rainfall events on UK-based infrastructure are observable, with an increasing number being reported on in the national press. The fatal derailment at Stonehaven in 2020 prompted a wider review of Network Rail-owned earthworks assets. The event was indicated by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) to be caused by mis-installed drainage on the adjacent cutting. The slope failure on Snake Pass (public highway A57) was reportedly caused by significant water ingress following numerous storm events and resulted in the road’s closure for several months. This problem is only projected to continue with greater intensity and more prolonged rainfall events forecasted in the future. Subsequently, this project is designed to evaluate effective drainage trench design within infrastructure embankments, considering the capillary barrier phenomenon that may govern their deterioration and resultant failure. Theoretically, the differential between grain sizes of the embankment clays and gravels, customarily used in drainage trenches, would have a limiting effect on infiltration. As such, it is anticipated that the inclusion of an additional material with an intermediate grain size should improve the hydraulic conductivity across the drainage boundary. Multiple drainage designs will be studied using instrumentation within the drain and surrounding clays. Data from the real-world installation at the BIONICS embankment will be collected and compared with laboratory and Finite Element (FE) simulations. This research aims to reduce the risk of infrastructure slope failures by improving the resilience of earthwork drainage and lessening the consequential impact on transportation networks.

Keywords: earthworks, slope drainage, transportation slopes, deterioration, capillary barriers, field study

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60 Topological Language for Classifying Linear Chord Diagrams via Intersection Graphs

Authors: Michela Quadrini

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Chord diagrams occur in mathematics, from the study of RNA to knot theory. They are widely used in theory of knots and links for studying the finite type invariants, whereas in molecular biology one important motivation to study chord diagrams is to deal with the problem of RNA structure prediction. An RNA molecule is a linear polymer, referred to as the backbone, that consists of four types of nucleotides. Each nucleotide is represented by a point, whereas each chord of the diagram stands for one interaction for Watson-Crick base pairs between two nonconsecutive nucleotides. A chord diagram is an oriented circle with a set of n pairs of distinct points, considered up to orientation preserving diffeomorphisms of the circle. A linear chord diagram (LCD) is a special kind of graph obtained cutting the oriented circle of a chord diagram. It consists of a line segment, called its backbone, to which are attached a number of chords with distinct endpoints. There is a natural fattening on any linear chord diagram; the backbone lies on the real axis, while all the chords are in the upper half-plane. Each linear chord diagram has a natural genus of its associated surface. To each chord diagram and linear chord diagram, it is possible to associate the intersection graph. It consists of a graph whose vertices correspond to the chords of the diagram, whereas the chord intersections are represented by a connection between the vertices. Such intersection graph carries a lot of information about the diagram. Our goal is to define an LCD equivalence class in terms of identity of intersection graphs, from which many chord diagram invariants depend. For studying these invariants, we introduce a new representation of Linear Chord Diagrams based on a set of appropriate topological operators that permits to model LCD in terms of the relations among chords. Such set is composed of: crossing, nesting, and concatenations. The crossing operator is able to generate the whole space of linear chord diagrams, and a multiple context free grammar able to uniquely generate each LDC starting from a linear chord diagram adding a chord for each production of the grammar is defined. In other words, it allows to associate a unique algebraic term to each linear chord diagram, while the remaining operators allow to rewrite the term throughout a set of appropriate rewriting rules. Such rules define an LCD equivalence class in terms of the identity of intersection graphs. Starting from a modelled RNA molecule and the linear chord, some authors proposed a topological classification and folding. Our LCD equivalence class could contribute to the RNA folding problem leading to the definition of an algorithm that calculates the free energy of the molecule more accurately respect to the existing ones. Such LCD equivalence class could be useful to obtain a more accurate estimate of link between the crossing number and the topological genus and to study the relation among other invariants.

Keywords: chord diagrams, linear chord diagram, equivalence class, topological language

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59 Impact of Emotional Intelligence and Cognitive Intelligence on Radio Presenter's Performance in All India Radio, Kolkata, India

Authors: Soumya Dutta

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This research paper aims at investigating the impact of emotional intelligence and cognitive intelligence on radio presenter’s performance in the All India Radio, Kolkata (India’s public service broadcaster). The ancient concept of productivity is the ratio of what is produced to what is required to produce it. But, father of modern management Peter F. Drucker (1909-2005) defined productivity of knowledge work and knowledge workers in a new form. In the other hand, the concept of Emotional Intelligence (EI) originated back in 1920’s when Thorndike (1920) for the first time proposed the emotional intelligence into three dimensions, i.e., abstract intelligence, mechanical intelligence, and social intelligence. The contribution of Salovey and Mayer (1990) is substantive, as they proposed a model for emotional intelligence by defining EI as part of the social intelligence, which takes measures the ability of an individual to regulate his/her personal and other’s emotions and feeling. Cognitive intelligence illustrates the specialization of general intelligence in the domain of cognition in ways that possess experience and learning about cognitive processes such as memory. The outcomes of past research on emotional intelligence show that emotional intelligence has a positive effect on social- mental factors of human resource; positive effects of emotional intelligence on leaders and followers in terms of performance, results, work, satisfaction; emotional intelligence has a positive and significant relationship with the teachers' job performance. In this paper, we made a conceptual framework based on theories of emotional intelligence proposed by Salovey and Mayer (1989-1990) and a compensatory model of emotional intelligence, cognitive intelligence, and job performance proposed by Stephen Cote and Christopher T. H. Miners (2006). For investigating the impact of emotional intelligence and cognitive intelligence on radio presenter’s performance, sample size consists 59 radio presenters (considering gender, academic qualification, instructional mood, age group, etc.) from All India Radio, Kolkata station. Questionnaires prepared based on cognitive (henceforth called C based and represented by C1, C2,.., C5) as well as emotional intelligence (henceforth called E based and represented by E1, E2,., E20). These were sent to around 59 respondents (Presenters) for getting their responses. Performance score was collected from the report of program executive of All India Radio, Kolkata. The linear regression has been carried out using all the E-based and C-based variables as the predictor variables. The possible problem of autocorrelation has been tested by having the Durbinson-Watson (DW) Statistic. Values of this statistic, almost within the range of 1.80-2.20, indicate the absence of any significant problem of autocorrelation. The possible problem of multicollinearity has been tested by having the Variable Inflation Factor (VIF) value. Values of this statistic, around within 2, indicates the absence of any significant problem of multicollinearity. It is inferred that the performance scores can be statistically regressed linearly on the E-based and C-based scores, which can explain 74.50% of the variations in the performance.

Keywords: cognitive intelligence, emotional intelligence, performance, productivity

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58 Facies Analysis and Depositional Environment of Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian) Lidam Formation, South East Sirt Basin, Libya

Authors: Miloud M. Abugares

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This study concentrates on the facies analysis, cyclicity and depositional environment of the Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) carbonate ramp deposits of the Lidam Formation. Core description, petrographic analysis data from five wells in Hamid and 3V areas in the SE Sirt Basin, Libya were studied in detail. The Lidam Formation is one of the main oil producing carbonate reservoirs in Southeast Sirt Basin and this study represents one of the key detailed studies of this Formation. In this study, ten main facies have been identified. These facies are; Chicken-Wire Anhydrite Facies, Fine Replacive Dolomite Facies, Bioclastic Sandstone Facies, Laminated Shale Facies, Stromatolitic Laminated Mudstone Facies, Ostracod Bioturbated Wackestone Facies, Bioturbated Mollusc Packstone Facies, Foraminifera Bioclastic Packstone/Grainstone Facies Peloidal Ooidal Packstone/Grainstone Facies and Squamariacean/Coralline Algae Bindstone Facies. These deposits are inferred to have formed in supratidal sabkha, intertidal, semi-open restricted shallow lagoon and higher energy shallow shoal environments. The overall depositional setting is interpreted as have been deposited in inner carbonate ramp deposits. The best reservoir quality is encountered in Peloidal- Ooidal Packstone/Grainstone facies, these facies represents storm - dominated shoal to back shoal deposits and constitute the inner part of carbonate ramp deposits. The succession shows a conspicuous hierarchical cyclicity. Porous shoal and backshoal deposits form during maximum transgression system and early regression hemi-cycle of the Lidam Fm. However; oil producing from shoal and backshoal deposits which only occur in the upper intervals 15 - 20 feet, which forms the large scale transgressive cycle of the Upper Lidam Formation.

Keywords: Lidam Fm. Sirt Basin, Wackestone Facies, petrographic, intertidal

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57 Exploring the Physical Activity Behavior and Needs of Adolescent Girls: A Mixed-Methods Study

Authors: Vicki R. Voskuil, Jorgie M. Watson

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Despite the well-established health benefits of physical activity (PA), most adolescents do not meet guidelines recommending 60 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) each day. Adolescent girls engage in less PA than boys, a difference that increases with age. By the 9th grade, only 20% of girls report meeting recommendations for PA with lower percentages for black and Hispanic girls compared to white girls. The purpose of the study was to explore the physical activity (PA) behavior and needs of adolescent girls. Study aims included assessment of adolescent girls’ PA behavior; facilitators of and barriers to PA, PA needs, and acceptability of the Fitbit-Flex 2 activity tracker. This exploratory study used a qualitative and quantitative approach. The qualitative approach involved a focus group using a semi-structured interview technique. PA was measured using the Fitbit-Flex 2 activity tracker. Steps, distance, and active minutes were recorded for one week. A Fitbit survey was also administered to assess acceptability. SPSS Version 22.0 and ATLAS.ti Version 8 were used to analyze data. Girls in the ninth grade were recruited from a high school in the Midwest (n=11). Girls were excluded if they were involved in sports or other organized PA ≥ 3 days per week, had a health condition that prevented or limited PA, or could not read and write English. Participants received a Fitbit-Flex 2 activity tracker to wear for one week. At the end of the week, girls returned the Fitbit and participated in a focus group. Girls responded to open-ended questions regarding their PA behavior and shared their ideas for future intervention efforts aimed at increasing PA among adolescents. Girls completed a survey assessing their perceptions of the Fitbit. Mean age of the girls was 15.3 years (SD=0.44). On average girls took 6,520 steps and walked 2.73 miles each day. Girls stated their favorite types of PA were walking, riding bike, and running. Most girls stated they did PA for 30 minutes or more at a time once a day or every other day. The top 3 facilitators of PA reported by girls were friends, family, and transportation. The top 3 barriers included health issues, lack of motivation, and weather. Top intervention ideas were community service projects, camps, and using a Fitbit activity tracker. Girls felt the best timing of a PA program would be in the summer. Fitbit survey results showed 100% of girls would use a Fitbit on most days if they had one. Ten (91%) girls wore the Fitbit on all days. Seven (64%) girls used the Fitbit app and all reported they liked it. Findings indicate that PA participation for this sample is consistent with previous studies. Adolescent girls are not meeting recommended daily guidelines for PA. Fitbit activity trackers were positively received by all participants and could be used in future interventions aimed at increasing PA for adolescent girls. PA interventions that take place in the summer with friends and include community service projects may increase PA and be well received by this population.

Keywords: adolescents, girls, interventions, physical activity

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56 Tree Resistance to Wind Storm: The Effects of Soil Saturation on Tree Anchorage of Young Pinus pinaster

Authors: P. Defossez, J. M. Bonnefond, D. Garrigou, P. Trichet, F. Danjon

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Windstorm damage to European forests has ecological, social and economic consequences of major importance. Most trees during storms are uprooted. While a large amount of work has been done over the last decade on understanding the aerial tree response to turbulent wind flow, much less is known about the root-soil interface, and the impact of soil moisture and root-soil system fatiguing on tree uprooting. Anchorage strength is expected to be reduced by water-logging and heavy rain during storms due to soil strength decrease with soil water content. Our paper is focused on the maritime pine cultivated on sandy soil, as a representative species of the Forêt des Landes, the largest cultivated forest in Europe. This study aims at providing knowledge on the effects of soil saturation on root anchorage. Pulling experiments on trees were performed to characterize the resistance to wind by measuring the critical bending moment (Mc). Pulling tests were performed on 12 maritime pines of 13-years old for two unsaturated soil conditions that represent the soil conditions expected in winter when wind storms occur in France (w=11.46 to 23.34 % gg⁻¹). A magnetic field digitizing technique was used to characterize the three-dimensional architecture of root systems. The soil mechanical properties as function of soil water content were characterized by laboratory mechanical measurements as function of soil water content and soil porosity on remolded samples using direct shear tests at low confining pressure ( < 15 kPa). Remarkably Mc did not depend on w but mainly on the root system morphology. We suggested that the importance of soil water conditions on tree anchorage depends on the tree size. This study gives a new insight on young tree anchorage: roots may sustain by themselves anchorage, whereas adhesion between roots and surrounding soil may be negligible in sandy soil.

Keywords: roots, sandy soil, shear strength, tree anchorage, unsaturated soil

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55 A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Dichotomous Treatment Effects: A Simulation Study

Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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54 The Social Ecology of Serratia entomophila: Pathogen of Costelytra giveni

Authors: C. Watson, T. Glare, M. O'Callaghan, M. Hurst

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The endemic New Zealand grass grub (Costelytra giveni, Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) is an economically significant grassland pest in New Zealand. Due to their impacts on production within the agricultural sector, one of New Zealand's primary industries, several methods are being used to either control or prevent the establishment of new grass grub populations in the pasture. One such method involves the use of a biopesticide based on the bacterium Serratia entomophila. This species is one of the causative agents of amber disease, a chronic disease of the larvae which results in death via septicaemia after approximately 2 to 3 months. The ability of S. entomophila to cause amber disease is dependant upon the presence of the amber disease associated plasmid (pADAP), which encodes for the key virulence determinants required for the establishment and maintenance of the disease. Following the collapse of grass grub populations within the soil, resulting from either natural population build-up or application of the bacteria, non-pathogenic plasmid-free Serratia strains begin to predominate within the soil. Whilst the interactions between S. entomophila and grass grub larvae are well studied, less information is known on the interactions between plasmid-bearing and plasmid-free strains, particularly the potential impact of these interactions upon the efficacy of an applied biopesticide. Using a range of constructed strains with antibiotic tags, in vitro (broth culture) and in vivo (soil and larvae) experiments were conducted using inoculants comprised of differing ratios of isogenic pathogenic and non-pathogenic Serratia strains, enabling the relative growth of pADAP+ and pADAP- strains under competition conditions to be assessed. In nutrient-rich, the non-pathogenic pADAP- strain outgrew the pathogenic pADAP+ strain by day 3 when inoculated in equal quantities, and by day 5 when applied as the minority inoculant, however, there was an overall gradual decline in the number of viable bacteria for both strains over a 7-day period. Similar results were obtained in additional experiments using the same strains and continuous broth cultures re-inoculated at 24-hour intervals, although in these cultures, the viable cell count did not diminish over the 7-day period. When the same ratios were assessed in soil microcosms with limited available nutrients, the strains remained relatively stable over a 2-month period. Additionally, in vivo grass grub co-infections assays using the same ratios of tagged Serratia strains revealed similar results to those observed in the soil, but there was also evidence of horizontal transfer of pADAP from the pathogenic to the non-pathogenic strain within the larval gut after a period of 4 days. Whilst the influence of competition is more apparent in broth cultures than within the soil or larvae, further testing is required to determine whether this competition between pathogenic and non-pathogenic Serratia strains has any influence on efficacy and disease progression, and how this may impact on the ability of S. entomophila to cause amber disease within grass grub larvae when applied as a biopesticide.

Keywords: biological control, entomopathogen, microbial ecology, New Zealand

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