Search results for: Julio C. Suita

Authors: Rian O. Miranda, Lidia V. de Sa, Julio C. Suita

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The Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) is the main manufacturer of radiopharmaceuticals in Brazil. The Nuclear Engineering Institute (IEN), located at Rio de Janeiro, is one of its main centers of research and production, attending public and private hospitals in the state. This radiopharmaceutical production is used in diagnostic and therapy procedures and allows one and a half million nuclear medicine procedures annually. Despite this, the country is not self-sufficient to meet national demand, creating the need for importation and consequent dependence on other countries. However, IEN facilities were designed in the 60's, and today its structure is inadequate in relation to the good manufacturing practices established by sanitary regulator (ANVISA) and radiological protection leading to the need for a new project. In order to adapt and increase production in the country, a new plant will be built and integrated to the existing facilities with a new 30 MeV Cyclotron that is actually in project detailing process. Thus, it is proposed to survey current CNEN and ANVISA standards for radiopharmaceutical production facilities, as well as the radiological protection analysis of each area of the plant, following good manufacturing practices recommendations adopted nationally besides licensing exigencies for radioactive facilities. In this way, the main requirements for proper operation, equipment location, building materials, area classification, and maintenance program have been implemented. The access controls, interlocks, segregation zones and pass-through boxes integrated into the project were also analyzed. As a result, IEN will in future have the flexibility to produce all necessary radioisotopes for nuclear medicine application, more efficiently by simultaneously bombarding two targets, allowing the simultaneous production of two different radioisotopes, minimizing radiation exposure and saving operating costs.

Keywords: cyclotron, legislation, norms, production, radiopharmaceuticals

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Authors: Julio Cesar Pino Tarragó, Dunia Lisbet Domínguez Gálvez, Luis Alfonso Moreno Ponce, Jhony Julio Regalado Jalca

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This study examines the impact of three distinct types of water on the compressive strength of plain concrete, focusing on samples from wells in Jipijapa, Manabí, Ecuador: Joa water, characterized by high sulfur content; Chade 1 water, with low sulfur content; and Chade 2 water, which is highly brackish. Compressive strength tests were conducted at 7, 14, and 28 days to assess the influence of these water types on the structural integrity of the concrete. The results indicate that both brackish and sulfur-rich water significantly reduces concrete strength, while Chade 1 water, though initially enhancing strength, displays variability in long-term performance. These outcomes underscore the importance of optimizing construction practices in regions like Jipijapa, where potable water is scarce, by exploring sustainable alternatives for using non-potable water, thereby conserving limited water resources.

Keywords: compressive strength, plain concrete, sulfur water, brackish water, water quality

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: Júlio Cesar Lopes de Oliveira, Carlos Henrique Gonçalves Treviso

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The shortage of the automotive market in relation to options for sources of high power car audio systems, led to development of this work. Thus, we developed a source with stabilized voltage with 4320 W effective power. Designed to the voltage of 14.4 V and a choice of two currents: 30 A load option in battery banks and 300 A at full load. This source can also be considered as a source of general use dedicated commercial with a simple control circuit in analog form based on discrete components. The assembly of power circuit uses a methodology for higher power than the initially stipulated.

Keywords: DC-DC power converters, converters, power conversion, pulse width modulation converters

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Authors: Walter Evaldo Kuchenbecker, Julio Carlos Teixeira

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Since efficiency became a challenge to reduce energy consumption of all electrical machines applications, the permanent magnet machine raises up as a better option, because its performance, robustness and simple control. Even though, the electrical machine was developed through analyses of magnetism effect, permanent magnet machines still not well dominated. As permanent magnet machines are becoming popular in most applications, the pressure to standardize this type of electrical machine increases. However, due limited domain, it is still nowadays without any standard to manufacture, test and application. In order to determine an inductance of the machine, a new method is proposed.

Keywords: permanent magnet generators (pmg), synchronous machine parameters, test procedures, inductances

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Authors: Julio Sotomayor, Daniel Yucra, Jorge Mayhuasca

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The article presents an evaluation of free technologies for business process automation, with emphasis only on tools compatible with the general public license (GPL). The compendium of technologies was based on promoting a service-oriented enterprise architecture (SOA) and the establishment of a business process management system (BPMS). The methodology for the selection of tools was Agile UP. This proposal allows businesses to achieve technological sovereignty and independence, in addition to the promotion of service orientation and the development of free software based on components.

Keywords: BPM, BPMS suite, open-source software, SOA, enterprise architecture, business process management

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of infrastructure investment in Africa, focusing on the Guinea-Bissau economy. Through a dynamic CGE model, we find that the natural resource revenues (or aid)-funded infrastructure investments generate externalities that increase factor returns. The private investment improvements propagate externalities effects on GDP and job opportunities outcomes. Household income and consumption were positively impacted, though the poorer benefited the most. The income inequality has reduced. However, funding by the mix of debt and direct taxes produces opposite effects. We suggest a potential pro-poor growth agenda in Africa.

Keywords: infrastructure investment, poverty alleviation, CGE modeling, African economies, applied economics

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Authors: Julio Vega

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Expression recognition is a field of Artificial Intelligence whose main objectives are to recognize basic forms of affective expression that appear on people’s faces and contributing to behavioral studies. In this work, a ROS node has been developed that, based on Deep Learning techniques, is capable of detecting the facial expressions of the people that appear in the image. These algorithms were optimized so that they can be executed in real time on an embedded platform. The experiments were carried out in a PC with a USB camera and in a Raspberry Pi 4 with a PiCamera. The final results shows a plausible system, which is capable to work in real time even in an embedded platform.

Keywords: python, low-cost, raspberry pi, emotion detection, human-robot interaction, ROS node

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Authors: Julio Albuja, David Zaldumbide

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Data analysis is an important step before taking a decision about money. The aim of this work is to analyze the factors that influence the final price of the houses through data mining algorithms. To our best knowledge, previous work was researched just to compare results. Furthermore, before using the data of the data set, the Z-Transformation were used to standardize the data in the same range. Hence, the data was classified into two groups to visualize them in a readability format. A decision tree was built, and graphical data is displayed where clearly is easy to see the results and the factors' influence in these graphics. The definitions of these methods are described, as well as the descriptions of the results. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are presented related to the released results that our research showed making it easier to apply these algorithms using a customized data set.

Keywords: algorithms, data, decision tree, transformation

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Authors: Julio Brégains, Ángel Carro, José-Manuel Andión

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Virtual 3D objects constitute invaluable tools for teaching practical engineering subjects at all -from basic to advanced- educational levels. For instance, they can be equipped with animation or informative labels, manipulated by mouse movements, and even be immersed in a real environment through augmented reality. In this paper, we present the investigation and description of a set of applications prepared for creating, editing, and making use of interactive 3D models to represent electric and electronic devices and systems. Several examples designed with the described tools are exhibited, mainly to show their capabilities as educational technological aids, applicable not only to the field of electricity and electronics but also to a much wider range of technical areas.

Keywords: educational technology, Google model viewer, ICT educational tools, interactive teaching, new tools for teaching

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Authors: Flavio Araujo, Paulo Scalize, Julio Lima, Natalia Vieira, Antonio Albuquerque, Isabela Santos

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From a concern regarding the environmental impacts caused by the disposal of residues generated in Water Treatment Plants (WTP's), alternatives ways have been studied to use these residues as raw material for manufacture of building materials, avoiding their discharge on water streams, disposal on sanitary landfills or incineration. This paper aims to present the results of a research work, which is using WTR for replacing the soil content in the manufacturing of soil-cement floor with proportions of 0, 5, 10 and 15%. The samples tests showed a reduction mechanical strength in so far as has increased the amount of waste. The water absorption was below the maximum of 6% required by the standard. The application of WTR contributes to the reduction of the environmental damage in the water treatment industry.

Keywords: residue, soil-cement floor, sustainable, WTP

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Authors: Gabriel Chavira, Jorge Orozco, Salvador Nava, Eduardo Álvarez, Julio Rolón, Roberto Pichardo

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Ambient Intelligence promotes a shift in computing which involves fitting-out the environments with devices to support context-aware applications. One of main objectives is the reduction to a minimum of the user’s interactive effort, the diversity and quantity of devices with which people are surrounded with, in existing environments; increase the level of difficulty to achieve this goal. The mobile phones and their amazing global penetration, makes it an excellent device for delivering new services to the user, without requiring a learning effort. The environment will have to be able to perceive all of the interaction techniques. In this paper, we present the PICTAC model (Perceiving touch Interaction through TAgging Context), which similarly delivers service to members of a research group.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, tagging context, touch interaction, touching services

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Authors: Julio Cesar Torres Rocha

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The present study is a three-stage action research that aims at raising EFL teachers’ awareness of World Englishes (WE) within a critical perspective of inquiry. Through a taught module on English and its varieties, a survey, a reflection paper, and a semi-structured interview were used to collect the data. The results of the study showed that there was a clear change of conception, at the theoretical level, in teachers’ papers. However, WE was regarded as future possibility for action. On the one hand, all of the participants said the module changed their conception of other varieties of English different from British and American ones. They all went from identifying themselves with either American or British variety, a celebratory perspective, to acknowledging and accepting other English varieties, a critical perspective of English as an international language (EIL).

Keywords: teachers’ s awareness, English as an international language, introducing world Englishes, critical applied linguistics

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Authors: Margarita Zavala, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Julio Rolón, Roberto Pichardo

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Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006, Mexico incorporated 'mentoring' space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, it is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. With this, they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support

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Authors: Flavio Araujo, Julio Lima, Paulo Scalize, Antonio Albuquerque

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Water treatment residues (WTR) are produced during water treatment and have recently been seen as a reusable material. The aim of this research was to perform characterizations of the residue generated in the Meia-Ponte Water Treatment Plant, in Goiania, Brazil, seeking to obtain normative parameters and consider sustainable alternatives for reincorporation of the residues in the productive chain for manufacturing various materials construction. In order to reduce the environmental liabilities generated by sanitation companies and discontinue unsustainable forms of disposal. The analyzes performed: Granulometry, Scanning Electron Microscopy, and X-Ray Diffraction demonstrated the potential application of residues to replace the soil and sand, because it has characteristics compatible with small aggregate and can be used as feed stock for the manufacture of materials as ceramic and soil-cement bricks, mortars, interlocking floors and concrete artifacts.

Keywords: residue, sustainable, water treatment plants, WTR

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Authors: Carlos Roberto Valêncio, Fábio Renato de Almeida, Thatiane Kawabata, Leandro Alves Neves, Julio Cesar Momente, Mario Luiz Tronco, Angelo Cesar Colombini

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By running transactions under the Snapshot isolation we can achieve a good level of concurrency, specially in databases with high-intensive read workloads. However, Snapshot is not immune to all the problems that arise from competing transactions and therefore no serialization warranty exists. We propose in this paper a technique to obtain data consistency with Snapshot by using some special triggers that we named Daemon Triggers. Besides keeping the benefits of the Snapshot isolation, the technique is specially useful for those database systems that do not have an isolation level that ensures serializability, like Firebird and Oracle. We describe all the anomalies that might arise when using the Snapshot isolation and show how to preclude them with Daemon Triggers. Based on the methodology presented here, it is also proposed the creation of a new isolation level: Daemon Snapshot.

Keywords: data consistency, serialization, snapshot, isolation

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Authors: Adonis Menezes, Julio C. Passos

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The present work deals with the theoretical and experimental investigation of the convective boiling of CO₂ in macro and mini-channels. A review of the state of the art of convective boiling studies in mini-channels and conventional channels for operating with CO₂ was carried out, with special attention to the flow patterns and pressure drop maps in single-phase and two-phase flows. To carry out an experimental analysis of the convective boiling of CO₂, a properly instrumented experimental bench was built, which allows a parametric analysis for different thermodynamic conditions, such as mass velocities between 200 and 1300 kg/(m².s), pressures between 20 and 70bar, temperature monitoring at the entrance of the mini-channels, heat flow and pressure drop in the test section. The visualization of flow patterns was possible with the use of a high-speed CMOS camera. The results obtained are in line with those found in the literature, both for flow patterns and for the heat transfer coefficient.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, convective boiling, CO₂, mini-channels

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Authors: Margarita Zavala, Julio Rolón, Gabriel Chavira, José González, Jorge Orozco, Roberto Pichardo

Abstract:

Adolescence is a neuralgic stage in the formation of every human being, generally at this stage is when the middle school level is studied. In 2006 in Mexico incorporated “mentoring" space to assist students in their integration and participation in life. In public middle schools, is sometimes difficult to be aware of situations that affect students because of the number of them and traditional records management. Whit this they lose the opportunity to provide timely support as a preventive way. In order to provide this support, it is required to know the students by detecting the relevant information that has greater impact on their learning process. This research is looking to check if it is possible to identify student’s relevant information to detect when it is at risk, and then to propose a model to manage in a proper way such information.

Keywords: adolescence, mentoring, middle school students, mentoring system support

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Julio Jesus De Lama

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the fundamental objective of hydrological studies applied to the engineering field is to determine the statistically consistent volumes or water flows that, in each case, allow us to size or design a series of elements or structures to effectively manage and develop a river basin. To determine these values, there are several ways of working within the framework of traditional hydrology: (1) Study each of the factors that influence the hydrological cycle, (2) Study the historical behavior of the hydrology of the area, (3) Study the historical behavior of hydrologically similar zones, and (4) Other studies (rain simulators or experimental basins). Of course, this range of studies in a certain basin is very varied and complex and presents the difficulty of collecting the data in real time. In this complex space, the study of variables can only be overcome by collecting and transmitting data to decision centers through the Internet of things and artificial intelligence. Thus, this research work implemented the learning project of the sub-basin of the Shullcas river in the Andean basin of the Mantaro river in Peru. The sensor firmware to collect and communicate hydrological parameter data was programmed and tested in similar basins of the European Union. The Machine Learning applications was programmed to choose the algorithms that direct the best solution to the determination of the rainfall-runoff relationship captured in the different polygons of the sub-basin. Tests were carried out in the mountains of Europe, and in the sub-basins of the Shullcas river (Huancayo) and the Yauli river (Jauja) with heights close to 5000 m.a.s.l., giving the following conclusions: to guarantee a correct communication, the distance between devices should not pass the 15 km. It is advisable to minimize the energy consumption of the devices and avoid collisions between packages, the distances oscillate between 5 and 10 km, in this way the transmission power can be reduced and a higher bitrate can be used. In case the communication elements of the devices of the network (internet of things) installed in the basin do not have good visibility between them, the distance should be reduced to the range of 1-3 km. The energy efficiency of the Atmel microcontrollers present in Arduino is not adequate to meet the requirements of system autonomy. To increase the autonomy of the system, it is recommended to use low consumption systems, such as the Ashton Raggatt McDougall or ARM Cortex L (Ultra Low Power) microcontrollers or even the Cortex M; and high-performance direct current (DC) to direct current (DC) converters. The Machine Learning System has initiated the learning of the Shullcas system to generate the best hydrology of the sub-basin. This will improve as machine learning and the data entered in the big data coincide every second. This will provide services to each of the applications of the complex system to return the best data of determined flows.

Keywords: hydrology, internet of things, machine learning, river basin

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Authors: Elena Castillo-López, Raúl Pereda, Julio Manuel de Luis, Rubén Pérez, Felipe Piña

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Sediments are an important source of accumulation of toxic contaminants within the aquatic environment. Bioassays are a powerful tool for the study of sediments in relation to their toxicity, but they can be expensive. This article presents a methodology to estimate the main physical property of intertidal sediments in coastal zones: heavy metals concentration. This study, which was developed in the Bay of Santander (Spain), applies classical and robust statistic to CASI-2 hyperspectral images to estimate heavy metals presence and ecotoxicity (TOC). Simultaneous fieldwork (radiometric and chemical sampling) allowed an appropriate atmospheric correction to CASI-2 images.

Keywords: remote sensing, intertidal sediment, airborne sensors, heavy metals, eTOCoxicity, robust statistic, estimation

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Authors: Flavio Araujo, Fabiolla Lima, Julio Lima, Paulo Scalize, Antonio Albuquerque, Heitor Reis

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One of the great environmental problems in the management of water treatment (WTP) is on the disposal of waste generated during the treatment process. The same occurs with the waste generated during rectification of porcelain tiles. Despite environmental laws in Brazil the residues does not have an ecologically balanced destination. Thus, with the purpose to identify an environmentally sustainable disposal, residues were used to replace part of the soil, for production soil-cement bricks. It was used the residues from WTP and coatings industry Cecrisa (Brazil). Consequently, a greater amount of fine aggregate in the two samples of residues was found. The residue affects the quality of bricks produced, compared to the sample without residues. However, the results of compression and water absorption tests were obtained values that meet the standards, respectively 2.0 MPa and 20% absorption.

Keywords: water treatment residue, porcelain tile residue, WTP, brick

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Authors: Buno Henriques, Rafaela Santos, Júlio Matias de Souza, Filipe Silva, Rubens Nascimento, Márcio Fredel

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Dental porcelain composites reinforced and toughened by 20 wt.% tetragonal zirconia (3Y-TZP) were processed by hot pressing at 1000°C. Two types of particles were tested: yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO2–3%Y2O3) agglomerates and pre-sintered yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO2–3%Y2O3) particles. The composites as well as the reinforcing particles were analyzed by the means of optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Energy Dispersion Spectroscopy (EDS) and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD). The mechanical properties were obtained by the transverse rupture strength test, Vickers indentations and fracture toughness. Wear tests were also performed on the composites and monolithic porcelain. The best mechanical and wear results were displayed by the porcelain reinforced with the pre-sintered ZrO2–3%Y2O3 particles.

Keywords: dental restoration, zirconia, porcelain, composites, strengthening, toughening, wear

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Authors: Flavio Araujo, Julio Lima, Paulo Scalize, Antonio Albuquerque, Isabela Santos

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The aim of this study was to perform the physicochemical characterizations of the residue generated in the Meia-Ponte Water Treatment Plant, seeking to obtain normative parameters and consider sustainable alternatives for reincorporation of the residues in the productive chain for manufacturing various materials construction. In order to reduce the environmental liabilities generated by sanitation companies and discontinue unsustainable forms of disposal as the launching of the residue in the rivers, disposal in landfills or burning it, because such ways pollute watercourses, ground and air. The analyzes performed: Granulometry, identification of clay minerals, Scanning Electron Microscopy, and X-Ray Diffraction demonstrated the potential application of residues to replace the soil and sand, because it has characteristics compatible with small aggregate and can be used as feedstock for the manufacture of materials as ceramic and soil-cement bricks, mortars, interlocking floors and concrete artifacts.

Keywords: recovery of waste, residue, sustainable, water treatment plant, WTR

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Authors: Julio Kauss, Miguel Cadillo, David Mauricio

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E-commerce is a business model that allows companies to optimize the processes of buying, selling, transferring goods and exchanging services through computer networks or the Internet. In Peru, the electronic commerce is used infrequently. This situation is due, in part to the fact that there is no model that allows companies to implement an e-commerce solution, which means that most SMEs do not have adequate knowledge to adapt to electronic commerce. In this work, a reference model is proposed for the implementation of an e-commerce solution in Peruvian SMEs in the retail sector. It consists of five phases: Business Analysis, Business Modeling, Implementation, Post Implementation and Results. The present model was validated in a SME of the Peruvian retail sector through the implementation of an electronic commerce platform, through which the company increased its sales through the delivery channel by 10% in the first month of deployment. This result showed that the model is easy to implement, is economical and agile. In addition, it allowed the company to increase its business offer, adapt to e-commerce and improve customer loyalty.

Keywords: e-commerce, retail, SMEs, reference model

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Authors: Jean C. A. Sousa, Julio Cesar Maciel Santos, Andressa J. Rubio, Edneia A. S. Paccola, Natália U. Yamaguchi

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A bibliometric analysis in the Web of Science database was used to identify overall scientific results of graphene inks to date (2008 to 2018). The objective of this study was to evaluate the evolutionary tendency of graphene inks research and to identify its aspects, aiming to provide data that can guide future work. The contributions of different researches, languages, thematic categories, periodicals, place of publication, institutes, funding agencies, articles cited and applications were analyzed. The results revealed a growing number of annual publications, of 258 papers found, 107 were included because they met the inclusion criteria. Three main applications were identified: synthesis and characterization, electronics and surfaces. The most relevant research on graphene inks has been summarized in this article, and graphene inks for electronic devices presented the most incident theme according to the research trends during the studied period. It is estimated that this theme will remain in evidence and will contribute to the direction of future research in this area.

Keywords: bibliometric, coating, nanomaterials, scientometrics

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Authors: Piedad Garrido, Fernando Repulles, Andy Bloor, Julio A. Sanguesa, Jesus Gallardo, Vicente Torres, Jesus Tramullas

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With the emergence and development of Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs), Higher Education is experiencing rapid changes, not only in its teaching strategies but also in student’s learning skills. However, we have noticed that students often have difficulty when seeking innovative, useful, and interesting learning resources for their work. This is due to the lack of supervision in the selection of good query tools. This paper presents AINA, an Information Retrieval (IR) computer system aimed at providing motivating and stimulating content to both students and teachers working on different areas and at different educational levels. In particular, our proposal consists of an open virtual resource environment oriented to the vast universe of Disney comics and cartoons. Our test suite includes Disney’s long and shorts films, and we have performed some activities based on the Just In Time Teaching (JiTT) methodology. More specifically, it has been tested by groups of university and secondary school students.

Keywords: information retrieval, animation, educational resources, JiTT

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Authors: Débora C. G. Oliveira, Julio D. Salles, Bruna A. Moriy, João A. Rossignolo, Holmer Savastano Jr.

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The objective of this study was to identify the optimal level of partial replacement of Portland cement by the ashes originating from burning straw and bagasse from sugar cane (ASB). Order to this end, were made five series of flat plates and cylindrical bodies: control and others with the partial replacement in 20, 30, 40, and 50% of ASB in relation to the mass of the Ordinary Portland cement, and conducted a mechanical testing of simple axial compression (cylindrical bodies) and the four-point bending (flat plates) and determined water absorption (WA), bulk density (BD) and apparent void volume (AVV) on both types of specimens. Based on the data obtained, it may be noted that the control treatment containing only Portland cement, obtained the best results. However, the cylindrical bodies with 20% ashes showed better results compared to the other treatments. And in the formulations plates, the treatment which showed the best results was 30% cement replacement by ashes.

Keywords: modulus of rupture, simple axial compression, waste, bagasse sugarcane

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Authors: Julio Franco

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Water is used, directly and indirectly, in all activities of the construction productive chain, making it a subject of worldwide relevance for sustainable development. The ongoing expansion of urban areas leads to a high demand for natural resources, which in turn cause significant environmental impacts. The present work proposes the application of BIM tools to assist the measurement of the water footprint (WF) of civil construction supplies. Data was inserted into the model as element properties, allowing them to be analyzed by element or in the whole model. The WF calculation was automated using parameterization in Autodesk Revit software. Parameterization was associated to the materials of each element in the model so that any changes in these elements directly alter the results of WF calculations. As a case study, we applied into a building project model to test the parameterized calculus of WF. Results show that the proposed parameterization successfully automated WF calculations according to design changes. We envision this tool to assist the measurement and rationalization of the environmental impact in terms of WF of construction projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, sustainable development, water footprint

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Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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Authors: Julio Lavarello-Salinas, Verónica Kramm-Vergara, Pedro Gil-La Orden

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, mental health became a relevant factor in people’s performance within organizations. The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of an organizational intervention program on the psychosocial factors of demands, resources, and the consequences of psychosocial risks in a technology services company during the COVID-19 pandemic. A quasi-experimental study was carried out with 105 employees who took part in an eight-week intervention program divided into two large stages. Pre- and post- measurements were collected using the UNIPSICO Questionnaire, considering its factors of demands, resources, and consequences of psychosocial risks. The Spanish Burnout Inventory (SBI) was also included. The results showed significant improvements in the perception of some psychosocial demand factors, all the resource factors, and all the consequences of psychosocial risks, except the guilt dimension of the SBI. Thus, we can conclude that the program was effective and that the study limitations should be improved in future studies.

Keywords: UNIPSICO questionnaire, occupational health, work stress, work psychosocial risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 104