Search results for: Agidew Abay

Authors: Agidew Abay, Nobuhiro Hosoe

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Ethiopia signed the AfCFTA in 2018 and is in ongoing negotiations to join the WTO. To assess the potential impacts of joining these trade agreements on Ethiopia's trade, output, and welfare, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using a world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results of our policy experiment, which include scenarios involving the reduction of tariff and non-tariff measures, indicate that AfCFTA and WTO accession would positively affect Ethiopia's welfare, with WTO membership expected to bring more significant benefits. On the one hand, AfCFTA membership would significantly increase Ethiopian imports from AfCFTA regions while decreasing imports from non-AfCFTA regions. Conversely, it would boost Ethiopian exports to Southern Africa while showing minimal change to other AfCFTA and non-AfCFTA regions. By contrast, WTO membership would significantly increase Ethiopia’s imports from Asia and North Africa and decrease those from Europe, the rest of the world, and East Africa. It would increase exports to all regions, especially Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. In terms of industrial output, while these two trade deals would largely favor agriculture and the meat and livestock sector and harm many manufacturing sectors (especially the light manufacturing sector), the impact of WTO accession on the Ethiopian economy would be overwhelmingly more significant than that of AfCFTA.

Keywords: trade liberalization, AfCFTA, WTO, computable general equilibrium model, tariff, non-tariff measures

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Authors: Almira Daulbayeva, Zhaukhar Yessenkulova, Rassima Salimbayeva

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In this article, the regularities of the modern spatial and temporal distribution of main pollutants in the air space of single-industry towns are considered, and the level of pollutant emissions into the atmospheric air by urban areas of the Karaganda region is determined. We selected such cities as Temirtau, Abay, Saran, and Balkhash. Ecological and hygienic assessment of atmospheric air pollution in these cities for 2020 - 2023 and the beginning of 2024 was carried out on the materials of annual Information Bulletins on the state of the environment of the Republic of Kazakhstan, bulletins ‘On the state of atmospheric air in Karaganda region’. The general assessment of atmospheric air pollution in the territory was high, especially in 2020 and 2021, and corresponded to the level of ‘tense’. According to the results of the analysis of atmospheric air pollution, it was revealed that enterprises of thermal power engineering and mining industry (mines, enrichment plants, metallurgical production of ‘ArcelorMittal’ JSC) carry out emission of significant amounts of pollutants, particulate matter, and heavy metals into the atmosphere. The total number of ingredients present in the atmosphere of the city exceeds dozens, many of which belong to the first and second categories of hazard. The main pollutants were sulphur dioxide, carbon oxides, and nitrogen dioxide, as well as suspended solids. We have also considered and studied some types of major diseases of the population living in the region in different conditions in recent years. According to the results of the study, the cities with the highest rates and levels of morbidity were identified: Temirtau, Shakhtinsk, Abay, located in Karaganda region, where the main industrial facilities are concentrated, emitting harmful pollutants from ‘Corporation Kazakhmys’ LLP, ‘Arcelor Mittal’ JSC, Balkhash Mining and Metallurgical Combine.

Keywords: atmospheric air, pollutants, single-industry towns, Karaganda region, morbidity, sustainable development

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Authors: Almagul Assainova , Dariya Abykenova, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin, Saule Rakhimova, Abay Aman

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The recognition of a handwritten Kazakh text is a relevant objective today for the digitization of materials. The study presents a model of a hybrid neural network for handwriting recognition, which includes a convolutional neural network and a multi-layer perceptron. Each network includes 1024 input neurons and 42 output neurons. The model is implemented in the program, written in the Python programming language using the EMNIST database, NumPy, Keras, and Tensorflow modules. The neural network training of such specific letters of the Kazakh alphabet as ә, ғ, қ, ң, ө, ұ, ү, h, і was conducted. The neural network model and the program created on its basis can be used in electronic document management systems to digitize the Kazakh text.

Keywords: handwriting recognition system, image recognition, Kazakh font, machine learning, neural networks

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Authors: Bahattin Abay

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Thin film of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon rubrene, C₄₂H₂₈ (5,6,11,12-tetraphenyltetracene), has been surfaced on Moderately Doped (MD) n-InP substrate as an interfacial layer by means of spin coating technique for the electronic modification of Au/MD n-InP structure. Ex situ annealing has been carried out at 150 °C for three minutes under a brisk flow of nitrogen for the better adhesion of the deposited film with the substrate surface. Room temperature electrical characterization has been performed on the C₄₂H₂₈/MD n-InP hybrid junctions by current-voltage (I-V) and capacitance-voltage (C-V) measurement in the dark. It has been seen that the C₄₂H₂₈/MD n-InP structure demonstrated extraordinary rectifying behavior. An effective barrier height (BH) as high as 0.743 eV, along with an ideality factor very close to unity (n=1.203), has been achieved for C₄₂H₂₈/n-InP organic/inorganic device. A thin C₄₂H₂₈ interfacial layer between Au and MD n-InP also reduce the reverse leakage current by almost four orders of magnitude and enhance the BH about 0.278 eV. This good performance of the device is ascribed to the passivation effect of organic interfacial layer between Au and n-InP. By using C-V measurement, in addition, the value of BH of the C₄₂H₂₈/n-InP organic/inorganic hybrid junctions have been obtained as 0.796 eV. It has been seen that both of the BH value (0.743 and 0.796 eV) for the organic/inorganic hybrid junction obtained I-V and C-V measurement, respectively are significantly larger than that of the conventional Au/n-InP structure (0.465 and 0.503 eV). It was also seen that the device had good sensitivity to the light under 100 mW/cm² illumination conditions. The obtained results indicated that modification of the interfacial potential barrier for Metal/n-InP junctions might be attained using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon thin interlayer C₄₂H₂₈.

Keywords: I-V and C-V measurements, heterojunction, n-InP, rubrene, surface passivation

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Authors: Hailekiros Tadesse Tekle, Yemane Tsehaye, Fetien Abay

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Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is one of the most important cereal crops in the world, grown for the poor farmers in Tigray with low yield production. The purpose of this research was to estimate the performance of 166 barley genotypes against the quantitative traits with detailed analysis of the variance component, heritability, genetic advance, and genetic usefulness parameters. The finding of ANOVA was highly significant variation (p ≤ 0:01) for all the genotypes. We found significant differences in coefficient of variance (CV of 15%) for 5 traits out of the 12 quantitative traits. The topmost broad sense heritability (H2) was recorded for seeds per spike (98.8%), followed by thousand seed weight (96.5%) with 79.16% and 56.25%, respectively, of GAM. The traits with H2 ≥ 60% and GA/GAM ≥ 20% suggested the least influenced by the environment, governed by the additive genes and direct selection for improvement of such beneficial traits for the studied genotypes. Hence, the 20 outstanding recombinant inbred lines (RIL) barley genotypes performing early maturity, high yield, and 1000 seed weight traits simultaneously were the top ranked group barley genotypes out of the 166 genotypes. These are; G5, G25, G33, G118, G36, G123, G28, G34, G14, G10, G3, G13, G11, G32, G8, G39, G23, G30, G37, and G26. They were early in maturity, high TSW and GYP (TSW ≥ 55 g, GYP ≥ 15.22 g/plant, and DTM below 106 days). In general, the 166 genotypes were classified as high (group 1), medium (group 2), and low yield production (group 3) genotypes in terms of yield and yield component trait analysis by clustering; and genotype parameter analysis such as the heritability, genetic advance, and genetic usefulness traits in this investigation.

Keywords: barley, clustering, genetic advance, heritability, usefulness, variability, yield

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy (ECRGE) strategy focuses mainly on generating and proper utilization of renewable energy (RE). Nonetheless, the current electricity generation of the country is dominated by hydropower. The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources from solar and wind energy were only 8 %. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36.1 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the EnergyPLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EnergyPLAN (EP) analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EP simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EP simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). The outcome of the model also showed that in the dry seasons of the year, there would be excess power production in the country. Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EP indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that if the excess power is utilized with a storage system, it can stabilize the grid system and be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming storage system to synchronize with potentials that can be generated from renewable energy.

Keywords: renewable energy, power, storage, wind, energy plan

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Authors: Metkel Gebremedhin, Biruk Kebede, Guash Abay

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Job satisfaction largely determines the productivity and efficiency of human resources for health. There is scanty evidence on factors influencing the job satisfaction of health extension professionals (HEPs) in Addis Ababa. The objective of this study was to determine the level of and factors influencing job satisfaction among extension health workers in Addis Ababa city. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Among all public health centers found in the Addis Ababa city administration health bureau that would be included in the study, a multistage sampling technique was employed. Then we selected the study health centers randomly and urban health extension professionals from the selected health centers. In-depth interview data collection methods were carried out for a comprehensive understanding of factors affecting job satisfaction among Health extension professionals (HEPs) in Addis Ababa. HEPs working in Addis Ababa areas are the primary study population. Multivariate logistic regression with 95% CI at P ≤ 0.05 was used to assess associated factors to job satisfaction. The overall satisfaction rate was 10.7% only, while 89.3%% were dissatisfied with their jobs. The findings revealed that variables such as marital status, staff relations, community support, supervision, and rewards have a significant influence on the level of job satisfaction. For those who were not satisfied, the working environment, job description, low salary, poor leadership and training opportunities were the major causes. Other factors influencing the level of satisfaction were lack of medical equipment, lack of transport facilities, lack of training opportunities, and poor support from woreda experts. Our study documented a very low level of overall satisfaction among health extension professionals in Addis Ababa city public health centers. Considering the factors responsible for this state of affairs, urgent and concrete strategies must be developed to address the concerns of extension health professionals as they represent a sensitive domain of the health system of Addis Ababa city. Improving the overall work environment, review of job descriptions and better salaries might bring about a positive change.

Keywords: job satisfaction, extension health professionals, Addis Ababa

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Authors: Tesfahiwot Abay Weldearegay

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Ethiopian Federal ministry of health, in collaboration with different partners, provides financial support from sustainable development grants and global fund budget sources to Regional health science colleges through the regional health bureau to improve the quality of training and avail professionals based on the regional health bureau demand from the year of 2012 to 2019EC. It was mainly focused on health extension workers (HEW) Level III&IV, Health Information technicians (HIT), Emergency Medical technicians (EMT), laboratory technicians, Pharmacy technicians, Anesthesia Level V, Radiography, midwifery, Environmental health and biomedical equipment technician. Laboratory technician, Radiography and Pharmacy technician, was retooling program. The study aims at assessing the Utilization and outcome of budgets transferred through regional health bureau to regional health science colleges. The study used both quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop sufficient data to explain the utilization of the budget, and outcomes obtained from the transferred budget and to identify the gaps. The data for the study were obtained through structured questionnaires and interviews was conducted to increase the reliability of the data. Nationally, students enrolled in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support for RHB to improve the quality of training were 87 840 students and the total Budget transferred, according to MOU was 895,752,038 Ethiopian birr. Among the students enrolled nationally in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support only 72% of students have graduated from different disciplines. In Hareri and Addis Ababa, all enrolled students were graduated (100%). At the same time, Oromia 69%, Amara 77%, SNNP 58% students graduated, respectively. The demand of the regional health bureau and the enrollment capacity of health science colleges increased from year to year. The financial support added great value to the HSCs to cop with problems related to student fees, skill lab materials and renovation.

Keywords: emergency medical technician, radiography, Biomedical, health extension

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Mengestie Mulugeta Belay, Serebe Abay Gebrie, Biruk Lambbiso Wamisho, Amare Worku

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) related to nursing profession, is a very common public health problem throughout the world. Various risk factors have been implicated in the etiology and LBP is assumed to be of multi-factorial origin as individual, work-related and psychosocial factors can contribute to its development. Objectives: To determine the prevalence and to identify risk factors of LBP among nurses working in Addis Ababa City Public Hospitals, Ethiopia, in the year 2015. Settings: Addis Ababa University, Black-Lion (‘Tikur Anbessa’) Hospital-BLH, is the country’s highest tertiary level referral and teaching Hospital. The three departments in connection with this study: Radiology, Pathology and Orthopedics, run undergraduate and residency programs and receive referred patients from all over the country. Methods: A cross-sectional study with internal comparison was conducted throughout the period October-December, 2015. Sample was chosen by simple random sampling technique by taken the lists of nurses from human resource departments as a sampling frame. A well-structured, pre-tested and self-administered questionnaire was used to collect quantifiable information. The questionnaire included socio-demographic, back pain features, consequences of back pain, work-related and psychosocial factors. The collected data was entered into EpiInfo version 3.5.4 and was analyzed by SPSS. A probability level of 0.05 or less and 95% confidence level was used to indicate statistical significance. Ethical clearance was obtained from all respected administrative bodies, Hospitals and study participants. Results: The study included 395 nurses and gave a response rate of 91.9%. The mean age was 30.6 (±8.4) years. Majority of the respondents were female (285, 72.2%). Nearly half of the participants (n=181, 45.8% (95% CI (40.8%- 50.6%))) were complained low back pain. There was statistical significant association between low back pain and working shift, physical activities at work; sleep disturbance and felt little pleasure by doing things. Conclusion: A high prevalence of low back pain was found among nurses working in Addis Ababa Public Hospitals. Recognition and preventive measures like providing resting periods should be taken to reduce the risk of low back pain in nurses working in Public hospitals.

Keywords: low back pain, risk factors, nurses, public hospitals

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Authors: Bakytzhan Bimbetov, Abay Zhangabilov, Saule Aitbaeva, Galymzhan Meirambekov

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Mare’s milk (saumal) contains in total about 40 biological components necessary for the human body. The most significant among them are amino acids, fats, carbohydrates, enzymes (lysozyme, amylase), more minerals and vitamins which are well balanced with each other. In Kazakhstan, Company "Eurasia Invest Ltd.” produces a freeze-dried saumal in form of powder by the use of modern German innovative technology by means of evaporating at low temperature (-35°C) with an appropriate pasteurization. Research of freeze-dried biomilk for the qualitative content showed that main ingredients of freshly drown milk are being preserved. We are currently studying medical and dietary properties of freeze-dried mare's milk for diseases of the digestive system, including for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and liver cirrhosis (LC) viral etiology. The studied group consisted of 14 patients with NASH, and 7 patients with LC viral etiology of Class A severity degree as per Child-Pugh. Patients took freeze-dried saumal, preliminary dissolved in boiled warm water (24 g. powder per 200 ml water) 3-4 times a day for a month in conjunction with basic therapy. The results were compared to a control group (11 patients with NASH and LC) who received only basic therapy without mare’s milk. Results of preliminary research showed an improvement of subjective and objective conditions of all patients, but more significant improvement of clinical symptoms and syndromes were observed in the treatment group compared to the control one. Patients with NASH significantly over time compared to the beginning of therapy decreased asthenic and dyspeptic syndromes (p<0,01). Hepatomegaly, identified on the basis of ultrasound prior to treatment was observed in 92,8±2,4% of patients, and after combination therapy hepatomegaly the rate decreased by 14,3%, amounting to 78,5±2,8%. Patients with LC also noted the improvement of asthenic (p<0,01) and dyspeptic (p<0,05) syndromes and hemorrhagic syndrome (nosebleeds and bleeding gums when brushing your teeth, p<0,05), and jaundice. Laboratory study also showed improvement in the research group, but more significant changes were observed in the experimental group. Group of patients with NASH showed a significant improvement of index in cytolysis in conjunction with a combination therapy (p<0,05). In the control group, these indicators were also improved, but they were not statistically reliable (p>0,05). Markers of liver failure were additionally studied during the study of laboratory parameters in patients with liver cirrhosis, in particular, bilirubin, albumin and prothrombin index (PTI). Combined therapy with the use of basic treatment and mare's milk showed a significant improvement in cytolysis and bilirubin (p<0,05). In our opinion, a very important and interesting fact is that, in conjunction with basic therapy, the use of mare's milk revealed an improvement of liver function in the form of normalized PTI and albumin in patients with liver cirrhosis viral etiology. Results of this work have shown therapeutic efficiency of the use of mare's milk in complex treatment of patients with liver disease and require further in-depth study.

Keywords: liver cirrhosis, non-alcohol steatohepatitis, saumal, mare’s milk

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