Search results for: data driven and knowledge driven

Authors: Cameron Wilson, Megan Hanrahan, Katie Brittain, Riona McArdle, Alison Keogh, Lynn Rochester

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Background: The loss of mobility and functional dependence is a significant marker in the progression of neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s Disease (PD). Pharmacological, surgical, and therapeutic treatments are available that can help in the management and amelioration of PD symptoms; however, these only prolong more severe symptoms. Accordingly, ensuring people with PD can maintain independence and a healthy wellbeing are essential in establishing an effective treatment option for those afflicted. Existing literature reviews have examined experiences in engaging with PD treatment options and the impact of PD on independence and wellbeing. Although, the literature fails to explore the influence of treatment options on independence and wellbeing and therefore misses what people value in their treatment. This review is the first that synthesises the impact of mobility-related treatments on independence and wellbeing in people with PD and their carers, offering recommendations to clinical practice and provides a conceptual framework (in development) for future research and practice. Objectives: To explore the impact of mobility-related treatment (both pharmacological and non-pharmacological) on the independence and wellbeing of people with PD and their carers. To propose a conceptual framework to patients, carers and clinicians which captures the qualities people with PD value as part of their treatment. Methods: We performed a critical interpretive synthesis of qualitative evidence, searching six databases for reports that explored the impact of mobility-related treatments (both drug and non-pharmacological) on independence and wellbeing in Parkinson’s Disease. The types of treatments included medication (Levodopa and Amantadine), dance classes, Deep-Brain Stimulation, aquatic therapies, physical rehabilitation, balance training and foetal transplantation. Data was extracted, and quality was assessed using an adapted version of the NICE Quality Appraisal Tool Appendix H before being synthesised according to the critical interpretive synthesis framework and meta-ethnography process. Results: From 2301 records, 28 were eligible. Experiences and impact of treatment pathway on independence and wellbeing was similar across all types of treatments and are described by five inter-related themes: (i) desire to maintain independence, (ii) treatment as a social experience during and after, (iii) medication to strengthen emotional health, (iv) recognising physical capacity and (v) emphasising the personal journey of Parkinson’s treatments. Conclusion: There is a complex and inter-related experience and effect of PD treatments common across all types of treatment. The proposed conceptual framework (in development) provides patients, carers, and clinicians recommendations to personalise the delivery of PD treatment, thereby potentially improving adherence and effectiveness. This work is vital to disseminate as PD treatment transitions from subjective and clinically captured assessments to a more personalised process supplemented using wearable technology.

Keywords: parkinson's disease, medication, treatment, dance, review, healthcare, delivery, levodopa, social, emotional, psychological, personalised healthcare

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Authors: B. Garfolo, L. Kelpsh, R. Roak, R. Kuck

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Often, student ratings of instructors play a significant role in the career path of an instructor in higher education. So then, how does a student view the effectiveness of instructor teaching? This question has been address by literally thousands of studies found in the literature. Yet, why does this question still persist? A literature review reveals that while it is true that student evaluations of instructors can be biased, there is still a considerable amount of work that needs to be done in understanding why. As student evaluations of instructors can be used in a variety of settings (formative or summative) it is critical to understand the nature of the bias. The authors believe that not only is some bias possible in student evaluations, it should be expected for the simple reason that a student evaluation is a human activity and as such, relies upon perception and interpersonal judgment. As such, student ratings are affected by the same factors that can potentially affect any rater’s judgment, such as stereotypes based on gender, culture, race, etc. Previous study findings suggest that student evaluations of teacher effectiveness differ between male and female raters. However, even though studies have shown that instructor gender does play an important role in influencing student ratings, the exact nature and extent of that role remains the subject of debate. Researchers, in their attempt to define good teaching, have looked for differences in student evaluations based on a variety of characteristics such as course type, class size, ability level of the student and grading practices in addition to instructor and student characteristics (gender, age, etc.) with inconsistent results. If a student evaluation represents more than an instructor’s teaching ability, for example, a physical characteristic such as gender, then this information must be taken into account if the evaluation is to have meaning with respect to instructor assessment. While the authors concede that it is difficult or nearly impossible to separate gender from student perception of teaching practices in person, it is, however, possible to shield an instructor’s gender identity with respect to an online teaching experience. The online teaching modality presents itself as a unique opportunity to experiment directly with gender identity. The analysis of the differences of online behavior of individuals when they perceive that they are interacting with a male or female could provide a wealth of data on how gender influences student perceptions of teaching effectiveness. Given the importance of the role student ratings play in hiring, retention, promotion, tenure, and salary deliberations in academic careers, this question warrants further attention as it is important to be aware of possible bias in student evaluations if they are to be used at all with respect to any academic considerations. For experimental purposes, the author’s constructed and online class where each instructors operate under two different gender identities. In this study, each instructor taught multiple sections of the same class using both a male identity and a female identity. The study examined student evaluations of teaching based on certain student and instructor characteristics in order to determine if and where male and female students might differ in their ratings of instructors based on instructor gender. Additionally, the authors examined if there are differences between undergraduate and graduate students' ratings with respect to the experimental criteria.

Keywords: gender bias, ethics, student evaluations, student perceptions, online instruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Muhammad Umer Mehmood, Muhammad Luqman, Muhammad Yaseen, Imtiaz Hussain

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Climate change is an arduous fact, which could not be unheeded easily. It is a phenomenon which has brought a collection of challenges for the mankind. Scientists have found many of its negative impacts on the life of human being and the resources on which the life of humanity is dependent. There are many issues which are associated with the factor of prime importance in this study, 'climate change'. Whenever changes happen in nature, they strike the whole globe. Effects of these changes vary from region to region. Climate of every region of this globe is different from the other. Even within a state, country or the province has different climatic conditions. So it is mandatory that the response in that specific region and the coping strategy of this specific region should be according to the prevailing risk. In the present study, the objective was to assess the coping strategies and vulnerability of small landholders. So that a professional suggestion could be made to cope with the vulnerability factor of small farmers. The cross-sectional research design was used with the intervention of quantitative approach. The study was conducted in the Khanewal district, of Punjab, Pakistan. 120 small farmers were interviewed after randomized sampling from the population of respective area. All respondents were above the age of 15 years. A questionnaire was developed after keen observation of facts in the respective area. Content and face validity of the instrument was assessed with SPSS and experts in the field. Data were analyzed through SPSS using descriptive statistics. From the sample of 120, 81.67% of the respondents claimed that the environment is getting warmer and not fit for their present agricultural practices. 84.17% of the sample expressed serious concern that they are disturbed due to change in rainfall pattern and vulnerability towards the climatic effects. On the other hand, they expressed that they are not good at tackling the effects of climate change. Adaptation of coping strategies like change in cropping pattern, use of resistant varieties, varieties with minimum water requirement, intercropping and tree planting was low by more than half of the sample. From the sample 63.33% small farmers said that the coping strategies they adopt are not effective enough. The present study showed that subsistence farming, lack of marketing and overall infrastructure, lack of access to social security networks, limited access to agriculture extension services, inappropriate access to agrometeorological system, unawareness and access to scientific development and low crop yield are the prominent factors which are responsible for the vulnerability of small farmers. A comprehensive study should be conducted at national level so that a national policy could be formulated to cope with the dilemma in future with relevance to climate change. Mainstreaming and collaboration among the researchers and academicians could prove beneficiary in this regard the interest of national leaders’ does matter. Proper policies to avoid the vulnerability factors should be the top priority. The world is taking up this issue with full responsibility as should we, keeping in view the local situation.

Keywords: adaptation, coping strategies, climate change, Pakistan, small farmers, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Nickolas A. Stewart, Donald C. Hefelfinger, Garrett V. Brittain, Timothy C. Frommeyer, Adrienne Stolfi

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Orthopedic surgery is currently considered one of the most competitive specialties that medical students can apply to for residency training. As evidenced by increasing United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, overall grades, and publication, presentation, and abstract numbers, this specialty is getting increasingly competitive. The recent change of USMLE Step 1 scores to pass/fail has resulted in additional challenges for medical students planning to apply for orthopedic residency. Until now, these scores have been a tool used by residency programs to screen applicants as an initial factor to determine the strength of their application. With USMLE STEP 1 converting to a pass/fail grading criterion, the question remains as to what will take its place on the ERAS application. The primary objective of this study is to determine the trends in the number of research projects, abstracts, presentations, and publications among orthopedic residency applicants. Secondly, this study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between the number of research projects, abstracts, presentations, and publications, and match rates. The researchers utilized the National Resident Matching Program's Charting Outcomes in the Match between 2007 and 2022 to identify mean publications and research project numbers by allopathic and osteopathic US orthopedic surgery senior applicants. A paired t test was performed between the mean number of publications and research projects by matched and unmatched applicants. Additionally, simple linear regressions within matched and unmatched applicants were used to determine the association between year and number of abstracts, presentations, and publications, and a number of research projects. For determining whether the increase in the number of abstracts, presentations, and publications, and a number of research projects is significantly different between matched and unmatched applicants, an analysis of covariance is used with an interaction term added to the model, which represents the test for the difference between the slopes of each group. The data shows that from 2007 to 2022, the average number of research publications increased from 3 to 16.5 for matched orthopedic surgery applicants. The paired t-test had a significant p-value of 0.006 for the number of research publications between matched and unmatched applicants. In conclusion, the average number of publications for orthopedic surgery applicants has significantly increased for matched and unmatched applicants from 2007 to 2022. Moreover, this increase has accelerated in recent years, as evidenced by an increase of only 1.5 publications from 2007 to 2001 versus 5.0 publications from 2018 to 2022. The number of abstracts, presentations, and publications is a significant factor regarding an applicant's likelihood to successfully match into an orthopedic residency program. With USMLE Step 1 being converted to pass/fail, the researchers expect students and program directors will place increased importance on additional factors that can help them stand out. This study demonstrates that research will be a primary component in stratifying future orthopedic surgery applicants. In addition, this suggests the average number of research publications will continue to accelerate. Further study is required to determine whether this growth is sustainable.

Keywords: publications, orthopedic surgery, research, residency applications

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Authors: Purushottam P. Khatiwada, Bikash Paudel, Ram B. Rana, Parshuram Biswakarma, Roshan Pudasaini

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Nepal has been putting its efforts into securing food and nutrition security for its citizens adopting different models and approaches. Home Garden approach, that integrates vegetables, fruits, small livestock, poultry along with other components like fish, honeybee, mushroom, spices for the promotion of nutritional security of resource-poor and disadvantaged groups was implemented during March 2009 to July 2013 spreading over 16 districts of Nepal covering 115 farmers groups, directly working with 3500 households. Sustained long-term impact of development interventions targeted to the resource-poor and disadvantaged groups has been a recurrent issue for donors, policymakers and practitioners alike. Considering the issue, a post-project evaluation was carried out in a selected project group (Dangibari of Jhapa) after four years of project completion in 2017 in order to evaluate the impact and understand the factors associated with its success. Qualitative information was collected through focus group discussion with group members and associated local institutions. For quantitative information, a quick survey was carried out to the same group members only selecting few indicators. The results are compared with the data obtained from the baseline study conducted by the project in March 2009. The impact of project intervention was evident as compared to the benchmarks established during the baseline, even after four years of project completion. The area under home garden is increased to 729 m² from 386 m² and average food self-sufficiency months increased to 10.22 from 8.11. Seven to eleven fruit species are maintained in the home gardens. An average number of vegetable species grown increased to 15.85 from 9.86. It has resulted in an increase in vegetables self-sufficient month to 8.74 from 4.74 and a huge increase in cash income NPR 6142.8 (USD 59.6) from NPR 385.7 (USD 3.9) from the sale of surplus vegetables. Coaching and mentoring including nutrition sensitization by the project staff at the beginning, inputs and technical support during the project implementation phase and projects effort on the institutional building of disadvantaged farmers were the key drivers of home garden sustainability and expansion. Specifically, package of home garden management trainings provided by the project staff, availability of group funds for buying inputs even after the project, uniting home garden group members in a cooperative, resource leveraging by local institutions through group lobbying, farmers innovations for maintaining home garden diversity and continuous backstopping support by few active members as local resource persons to other members are some additional factors contributing to sustain and/or improve the home garden status by the resource-poor and disadvantaged group.

Keywords: food-based nutrition, home garden, resource-poor and disadvantaged group, sustained impact

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Authors: Leslie Raphael de M. Ferraz, Salvana Priscylla M. Costa, Tarcyla de A. Gomes, Giovanna Christinne R. M. Schver, Cristóvão R. da Silva, Magaly Andreza M. de Lyra, Danilo Augusto F. Fontes, Larissa A. Rolim, Amanda Carla Q. M. Vieira, Miracy M. de Albuquerque, Pedro J. Rolim-Neto

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Efavirenz (EFV) is a drug used as first-line treatment of AIDS. However, it has poor aqueous solubility and wettability, presenting problems in the gastrointestinal tract absorption and bioavailability. One of the most promising strategies to improve the solubility is the use of solid dispersions (SD). Therefore, this study aimed to characterize SD EFZ with the polymers: PVP-K30, PVPVA 64 and SOLUPLUS in order to find an optimal formulation to compose a future pharmaceutical product for AIDS therapy. Initially, Physical Mixtures (PM) and SD with the polymers were obtained containing 10, 20, 50 and 80% of drug (w/w) by the solvent method. The best formulation obtained between the SD was selected by in vitro dissolution test. Finally, the drug-carrier system chosen, in all ratios obtained, were analyzed by the following techniques: Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), polarization microscopy, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and spectrophotometry of absorption in the region of infrared (IR). From the dissolution profiles of EFV, PM and SD, the values of area Under The Curve (AUC) were calculated. The data showed that the AUC of all PM is greater than the isolated EFV, this result is derived from the hydrophilic properties of the polymers thus favoring a decrease in surface tension between the drug and the dissolution medium. In adittion, this ensures an increasing of wettability of the drug. In parallel, it was found that SD whom had higher AUC values, were those who have the greatest amount of polymer (with only 10% drug). As the amount of drug increases, it was noticed that these results either decrease or are statistically similar. The AUC values of the SD using the three different polymers, followed this decreasing order: SD PVPVA 64-EFV 10% > SD PVP-K30-EFV 10% > SD Soluplus®-EFV 10%. The DSC curves of SD’s did not show the characteristic endothermic event of drug melt process, suggesting that the EFV was converted to its amorphous state. The analysis of polarized light microscopy showed significant birefringence of the PM’s, but this was not observed in films of SD’s, thus suggesting the conversion of the drug from the crystalline to the amorphous state. In electron micrographs of all PM, independently of the percentage of the drug, the crystal structure of EFV was clearly detectable. Moreover, electron micrographs of the SD with the two polymers in different ratios investigated, we observed the presence of particles with irregular size and morphology, also occurring an extensive change in the appearance of the polymer, not being possible to differentiate the two components. IR spectra of PM corresponds to the overlapping of polymer and EFV bands indicating thereby that there is no interaction between them, unlike the spectra of all SD that showed complete disappearance of the band related to the axial deformation of the NH group of EFV. Therefore, this study was able to obtain a suitable formulation to overcome the solubility limitations of the EFV, since SD PVPVA 64-EFZ 10% was chosen as the best system in delay crystallization of the prototype, reaching higher levels of super saturation.

Keywords: characterization, dissolution, Efavirenz, solid dispersions

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Authors: N. Uaphongsathorn, C. Worawong, S. Thaewpia

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Background and significance: The population is aging in Thai society, the elderly dependent is at great risk of various functional, psychological, and socio-economic problems as well as less access to health care. They may require long term care at home to maximize their functional abilities and activities of daily living and to improve their quality of life during their own age. Therefore, there is a need to develop a home-based long term care to meet the long term care needs of elders dependent. Methods: The research purpose was to develop long term care model among the elderly dependent in Chaiyaphum province in Northeast region of Thailand. Action Research which is composing of planning, action, observation, and reflection phases was used. Research was carried out for 12 months in all sub-districts of 6 districts in Chaiyaphum province. Participants (N = 1,010) participating in the processes of model development were comprised of 3 groups: a) a total of 110 health care professionals, b) a total of 600 health volunteers and family caregivers and c) a total of 300 the elderly dependent with chronically medical illnesses or disabilities. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze data. Findings: Results have shown that the most common health problems among elders dependent with physical disabilities to function independently were cardiovascular disease, dementia, and traffic injuries. The development of home-based long term care model among elders dependent in Chaiyaphum province was composed of six key steps. They are: a) initiating policies supporting formal and informal caregivers for the elder dependent in all sub-districts, b) building network and multidisciplinary team, c) developing 3-day care manager training program and 3-day care provider training program d) training case managers and care providers for the elderly dependent through team and action learning, e) assessing, planning and providing care based on care individual’s needs of the elderly dependent, and f) sharing experiences for good practice and innovation for long term care at homes in district urban and rural areas. Among all care managers and care providers, the satisfaction level for training programs was high with a mean score of 3.98 out of 5. The elders dependent and family caregivers addressed that long term care at home could contribute to improving life’s daily activities, family relationship, health status, and quality of life. Family caregivers and volunteers have feeling a sense of personal satisfaction and experiencing providing meaningful care and support for elders dependent. Conclusion: In conclusion, a home-based long term care is important to Thai elders dependent. Care managers and care providers play a large role and responsibility to provide appropriate care to meet the elders’ needs in both urban and rural areas in Thai society. Further research could be rigorously studied with a larger group of populations in similar socio-economic and cultural contexts.

Keywords: elderly people, care manager, care provider, long term care

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Lena Payati, Maria Kazou, Effie Tsakalidou

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Table olives are one of the most popular fermented vegetables worldwide, which along with olive oil, have a crucial role in the world economy. They are highly appreciated by the consumers for their characteristic taste and pleasant aromas, while several health and nutritional benefits have been reported as well. Until recently, microbial biogeography, i.e., the study of microbial diversity over time and space, has been mainly associated with wine. However, nowadays, the term 'terroir' has been extended to other crops and food products so as to link the geographical origin and environmental conditions to quality aspects of fermented foods. Taking the above into consideration, the present study focuses on the microbial fingerprinting of the most important olive varieties of Greece with the state-of-the-art amplicon-based metagenomics analysis. Towards this, in 2019, 61 samples from 38 different olive varieties were collected at the final stage of ripening from 13 well spread geographical regions in Greece. For the metagenomics analysis, total DNA was extracted from the olive samples, and the 16S rRNA gene and ITS DNA region were sequenced and analyzed using bioinformatics tools for the identification of bacterial and yeasts/fungal diversity, respectively. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) was also performed for data clustering based on the average microbial composition of all samples from each region of origin. According to the composition, results obtained, when samples were analyzed separately, the majority of both bacteria (such as Pantoea, Enterobacter, Roserbergiella, and Pseudomonas) and yeasts/fungi (such as Aureobasidium, Debaromyces, Candida, and Cladosporium) genera identified were found in all 61 samples. Even though interesting differences were observed at the relative abundance level of the identified genera, the bacterial genus Pantoea and the yeast/fungi genus Aureobasidium were the dominant ones in 35 and 40 samples, respectively. Of note, olive samples collected from the same region had similar fingerprint (genera identified and relative abundance level) regardless of the variety, indicating a potential association between the relative abundance of certain taxa and the geographical region. When samples were grouped by region of origin, distinct bacterial profiles per region were observed, which was also evident from the PCA analysis. This was not the case for the yeast/fungi profiles since 10 out of the 13 regions were grouped together mainly due to the dominance of the genus Aureobasidium. A second cluster was formed for the islands Crete and Rhodes, both of which are located in the Southeast Aegean Sea. These two regions clustered together mainly due to the identification of the genus Toxicocladosporium in relatively high abundances. Finally, the Agrinio region was separated from the others as it showed a completely different microbial fingerprinting. However, due to the limited number of olive samples from some regions, a subsequent PCA analysis with more samples from these regions is expected to yield in a more clear clustering. The present study is part of a bigger project, the first of its kind in Greece, with the ultimate goal to analyze a larger set of olive samples of different varieties and from different regions in Greece in order to have a reliable olives’ microbial biogeography.

Keywords: amplicon-based metagenomics analysis, bacteria, microbial biogeography, olive microbiota, yeasts/fungi

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Authors: Carina Hermansson

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This presentation focuses a development project aiming at developing and documenting the steps taken at a multilingual, multicultural K-5 school, with the aim to improve the achievement levels of the pupils by focusing language and literacy development across the schedule in a digital classroom, and in all units of the school. This pre-formulated aim, thus, may be said to adhere to neoliberal educational and accountability policies in terms of its focus on digital learning, learning results, and national curriculum standards. In particular the project aimed at improving the collaboration between the teachers, the leisure time unit, the librarians, the mother tongue teachers and bilingual study counselors. This is a school environment characterized by cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and professional pluralization. The overarching aims of the research project were to scrutinize and analyze the factors enabling and obstructing the implementation of the Language Policy in a digital classroom. Theoretical framework: We apply multi-level perspectives in the analyses inspired by Uljens’ ideas about interactive and interpersonal first order (teacher/students) and second order(principal/teachers and other staff) educational leadership as described within the framework of discursive institutionalism, when we try to relate the Language Policy, educational policy, and curriculum with the administrative processes. Methodology/research design: The development project is based on recurring research circles where teachers, leisure time assistants, mother tongue teachers and study counselors speaking the mother tongue of the pupils together with two researchers discuss their digital literacy practices in the classroom. The researchers have in collaboration with the principal developed guidelines for the work, expressed in a Language Policy document. In our understanding the document is, however, only a part of the concept, the actions of the personnel and their reflections on the practice constitute the major part of the development project. One and a half years out of three years have now passed and the project has met with a row of difficulties which shed light on factors of importance for the progress of the development project. Field notes and recordings from the research circles, a survey with the personnel, and recorded group interviews provide data on the progress of the project. Expected conclusions: The problems experienced deal with leadership, curriculum, interplay between aims, technology, contents and methods, the parents as customers taking their children to other schools, conflicting values, and interactional difficulties, that is, phenomena on different levels, ranging from school to a societal level, as for example teachers being substituted as a result of the marketization of schools. Also underlying assumptions from actors at different levels create obstacles. We find this study and the problems we are facing utterly important to share and discuss in an era with a steady flow of refugees arriving in the Nordic countries.

Keywords: early childhood education, language policy, multicultural school, school development project

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Authors: Alvarez M., Chapela M. J., Balboa E., Rubianes D., Sinde E., Fernandez de Ana C., Rodríguez-Blanco A.

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The gut microbiota plays an important role as gut inflammation could contribute to colorectal cancer development; however, this role is still not fully understood, and tools able to prevent this progression are yet to be developed. The main objective of this study was to monitor the effects of a mushroom extracts formulation in gut microbial community composition of an Azoxymethane (AOM)/Dextran sodium sulfate (DSS) mice model of inflammation-linked carcinogenesis. For the in vivo study, 41 adult male mice of the C57BL / 6 strain were obtained. 36 of them have been induced in a state of colon carcinogenesis by a single intraperitoneal administration of AOM at a dose of 12.5 mg/kg; the control group animals received instead of the same volume of 0.9% saline. DSS is an extremely toxic polysaccharide sulfate that causes chronic inflammation of the colon mucosa, favoring the appearance of severe colitis and the production of tumors induced by AOM. Induction by AOM/DSS is an interesting platform for chemopreventive intervention studies. This time the model was used to monitor gut microbiota changes as a result of supplementation with a specific mushroom extracts formulation previously shown to have prebiotic activity. The animals have been divided into three groups: (i) Cancer + mushroom extracts formulation experimental group: to which the MicoDigest2.0 mushroom extracts formulation developed by Hifas da Terra S.L has been administered dissolved in drinking water at an estimated concentration of 100 mg / ml. (ii) Control group of animals with Cancer: to which normal water has been administered without any type of treatment. (iii) Control group of healthy animals: these are the animals that have not been induced cancer or have not received any treatment in drinking water. This treatment has been maintained for a period of 3 months, after which the animals were sacrificed to obtain tissues that were subsequently analyzed to verify the effects of the mushroom extract formulation. A microbiological analysis has been carried out to compare the microbial communities present in the intestines of the mice belonging to each of the study groups. For this, the methodology of massive sequencing by molecular analysis of the 16S gene has been used (Ion Torrent technology). Initially, DNA extraction and metagenomics libraries were prepared using the 16S Metagenomics kit, always following the manufacturer's instructions. This kit amplifies 7 of the 9 hypervariable regions of the 16S gene that will then be sequenced. Finally, the data obtained will be compared with a database that makes it possible to determine the degree of similarity of the sequences obtained with a wide range of bacterial genomes. Results obtained showed that, similarly to certain natural compounds preventing colorectal tumorigenesis, a mushroom formulation enriched the Firmicutes and Proteobacteria phyla and depleted Bacteroidetes. Therefore, it was demonstrated that the consumption of the mushroom extracts’ formulation developed could promote the recovery of the microbial balance that is disrupted in the mice model of carcinogenesis. More preclinical and clinical studies are needed to validate this promising approach.

Keywords: carcinogenesis, microbiota, mushroom extracts, inflammation

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Authors: Sonia Butalia, Huong Luu, Alexis Guigue, Karen J. B. Martins, Khanh Vu, Scott W. Klarenbach

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Obesity-related health conditions impose a substantial economic burden on payers due to increased healthcare use. Estimates of healthcare resource use and costs associated with obesity-related comorbidities are needed to inform policies and interventions targeting these conditions. Methods: Adults living with obesity were identified (a procedure-related body mass index code for class 2/3 obesity between 2012 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada; excluding those with bariatric surgery), and outcomes were compared over 1-year (2019/2020) between those who had and did not have specific obesity-related comorbidities. The probability of using a healthcare service (based on the odds ratio of a zero [OR-zero] cost) was compared; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Logistic regression and a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution were used for total healthcare cost comparisons ($CDN); cost ratios and estimated cost differences (95% CI) were reported. Potential socio-demographic and clinical confounders were adjusted for, and incremental cost differences were representative of a referent case. Results: A total of 220,190 adults living with obesity were included; 44% had hypertension, 25% had osteoarthritis, 24% had type-2 diabetes, 17% had cardiovascular disease, 12% had insulin resistance, 9% had chronic back pain, and 4% of females had polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). The probability of hospitalization, ED visit, and ambulatory care was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (hospitalization: 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.57 [0.55/0.59]] / ED visit: 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.53/0.56]] / ambulatory care visit: 2.4-times [OR-zero: 0.41 [0.40/0.43]]), cardiovascular disease (2.7-times [OR-zero: 0.37 [0.36/0.38]] / 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.52 [0.51/0.53]] / 2.8-times [OR-zero: 0.36 [0.35/0.36]]), osteoarthritis (2.0-times [OR-zero: 0.51 [0.50/0.53]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.74 [0.73/0.76]] / 2.5-times [OR-zero: 0.40 [0.40/0.41]]), type-2 diabetes (1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.52/0.55]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.72 [0.70/0.73]] / 2.1-times [OR-zero: 0.47 [0.46/0.47]]), hypertension (1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]] / 1.3-times [OR-zero: 0.79 [0.77/0.80]] / 2.2-times [OR-zero: 0.46 [0.45/0.47]]), PCOS (not significant / 1.2-times [OR-zero: 0.83 [0.79/0.88]] / not significant), and insulin resistance (1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.88 [0.84/0.91]] / 1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.92 [0.89/0.94]] / 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]]). After fully adjusting for potential confounders, the total healthcare cost ratio was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (1.54-times [1.51/1.56]), cardiovascular disease (1.45-times [1.43/1.47]), osteoarthritis (1.36-times [1.35/1.38]), type-2 diabetes (1.30-times [1.28/1.31]), hypertension (1.27-times [1.26/1.28]), PCOS (1.08-times [1.05/1.11]), and insulin resistance (1.03-times [1.01/1.04]). Conclusions: Adults with obesity who have specific disease-related health conditions have a higher probability of healthcare use and incur greater costs than those without specific comorbidities; incremental costs are larger when other obesity-related health conditions are not adjusted for. In a specific referent case, hypertension was costliest (44% had this condition with an additional annual cost of $715 [$678/$753]). If these findings hold for the Canadian population, hypertension in persons with obesity represents an estimated additional annual healthcare cost of $2.5 billion among adults living with obesity (based on an adult obesity rate of 26%). Results of this study can inform decision making on investment in interventions that are effective in treating obesity and its complications.

Keywords: administrative data, healthcare cost, obesity-related comorbidities, real world evidence

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Authors: Stephanie Wall, Guido Wimmers

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The construction and operation of buildings greatly contribute to environmental degradation through resource and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The design of the envelope system affects the environmental impact of a building in two major ways; 1) high thermal performance and air tightness can significantly reduce the operational energy of the building and 2) the material selection for the envelope largely impacts the embodied energy of the building. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a scientific methodology that is used to systematically analyze the environmental load of processes or products, such as buildings, over their life. The paper will discuss the results of a comparative LCA of different envelope designs and the long-term monitoring of the Wood Innovation Research Lab (WIRL); a Passive House (PH), industrial building under construction in Prince George, Canada. The WIRL has a footprint of 30m x 30m on a concrete raft slab foundation and consists of shop space as well as a portion of the building that includes a two-story office/classroom space. The lab building goes beyond what was previously thought possible in regards to energy efficiency of industrial buildings in cold climates due to their large volume to surface ratio, small floor area, and high air change rate, and will be the first PH certified industrial building in Canada. These challenges were mitigated through the envelope design which utilizes solar gains while minimizing overheating, reduces thermal bridges with thick (570mm) prefabricated truss walls filled with blown in mineral wool insulation and a concrete slab and roof insulated with EPS rigid insulation. The envelope design results in lower operational and embodied energy when compared to buildings built to local codes or with steel. The LCA conducted using Athena Impact Estimator for Buildings identifies project specific hot spots as well illustrates that for high-efficiency buildings where the operational energy is relatively low; the embodied energy of the material selection becomes a significant design decision as it greatly impacts the overall environmental footprint of the building. The results of the LCA will be reinforced by long-term monitoring of the buildings envelope performance through the installation of temperature and humidity sensors throughout the floor slab, wall and roof panels and through detailed metering of the energy consumption. The data collected from the sensors will also be used to reinforce the results of hygrothermal analysis using WUFI®, a program used to verify the durability of the wall and roof panels. The WIRL provides an opportunity to showcase the use of wood in a high performance envelope of an industrial building and to emphasize the importance of considering the embodied energy of a material in the early stages of design. The results of the LCA will be of interest to leading researchers and scientists committed to finding sustainable solutions for new construction and high-performance buildings.

Keywords: high performance envelope, life cycle assessment, long term monitoring, passive house, prefabricated panels

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Authors: Guo Bingkun

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With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of urbanization level, people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, and more and more people are gathering in cities. The demand for urban residents' housing has been greatly released in the past decade. The demand for housing and related construction land required for urban development has brought huge pressure to urban operations, and land prices have also risen rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, from the comparison of the eastern and western regions of China, there are also great differences in urban socioeconomics and land prices in the eastern, central and western regions. Although judging from the current overall market development, after more than ten years of housing market reform and development, the quality of housing and land use efficiency in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However, the current contradiction between land demand for urban socio-economic development and land supply, especially the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban residential land, has not been effectively alleviated. Since land is closely linked to all aspects of society, changes in land prices will be affected by many complex factors. Therefore, this paper studies the factors that may affect urban residential land prices and compares them among eastern, central and western cities, and finds the main factors that determine the level of urban residential land prices. This paper provides guidance for urban managers in formulating land policies and alleviating land supply and demand. It provides distinct ideas for improving urban planning and improving urban planning and promotes the improvement of urban management level. The research in this paper focuses on residential land prices. Generally, the indicators for measuring land prices mainly include benchmark land prices, land price level values, parcel land prices, etc. However, considering the requirements of research data continuity and representativeness, this paper chooses to use residential land price level values. Reflects the status of urban residential land prices. First of all, based on the existing research at home and abroad, the paper considers the two aspects of land supply and demand and, based on basic theoretical analysis, determines some factors that may affect urban housing, such as urban expansion, taxation, land reserves, population, and land benefits. Factors of land price and correspondingly selected certain representative indicators. Secondly, using conventional econometric analysis methods, we established a model of factors affecting urban residential land prices, quantitatively analyzed the relationship and intensity of influencing factors and residential land prices, and compared the differences in the impact of urban residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions. Compare similarities. Research results show that the main factors affecting China's urban residential land prices are urban expansion, land use efficiency, taxation, population size, and residents' consumption. Then, the main reason for the difference in residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions is the differences in urban expansion patterns, industrial structures, urban carrying capacity and real estate development investment.

Keywords: urban housing, urban planning, housing prices, comparative study

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Authors: Pratap Chandra Pati, Prabina Rajib, Parama Barai

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The traditional finance theory neglects the role of sentiment factor in asset pricing. However, the behavioral approach to asset-pricing based on noise trader model and limit to arbitrage includes investor sentiment as a priced risk factor in the assist pricing model. Investor sentiment affects stock more that are vulnerable to speculation, hard to value and risky to arbitrage. It includes small stocks, high volatility stocks, growth stocks, distressed stocks, young stocks and non-dividend-paying stocks. Since the introduction of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) in 1993, it is used as a measure of future volatility in the stock market and also as a measure of investor sentiment. CBOE VIX index, in particular, is often referred to as the ‘investors’ fear gauge’ by public media and prior literature. The upward spikes in the volatility index are associated with bouts of market turmoil and uncertainty. High levels of the volatility index indicate fear, anxiety and pessimistic expectations of investors about the stock market. On the contrary, low levels of the volatility index reflect confident and optimistic attitude of investors. Based on the above discussions, we investigate whether market-wide fear levels measured volatility index is priced factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market. First, we investigate the performance and validity of Fama and French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model in the Indian stock market. Second, we explore whether India volatility index as a proxy for fearful market-based sentiment indicators affect the cross section of stock returns after controlling for well-established risk factors such as market excess return, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Asset pricing tests are performed using monthly data on CNX 500 index constituent stocks listed on the National stock exchange of India Limited (NSE) over the sample period that extends from January 2008 to March 2017. To examine whether India volatility index, as an indicator of fear sentiment, is a priced risk factor, changes in India VIX is included as an explanatory variable in the Fama-French three-factor model as well as Carhart four-factor model. For the empirical testing, we use three different sets of test portfolios used as the dependent variable in the in asset pricing regressions. The first portfolio set is the 4x4 sorts on the size and B/M ratio. The second portfolio set is the 4x4 sort on the size and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. The third portfolio set is the 2x3x2 independent triple-sorting on size, B/M and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. We find evidence that size, value and momentum factors continue to exist in Indian stock market. However, VIX index does not constitute a priced risk factor in the cross-section of returns. The inseparability of volatility and jump risk in the VIX is a possible explanation of the current findings in the study.

Keywords: India VIX, Fama-French model, Carhart four-factor model, asset pricing

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Catherine Constantinidis (Nee Tsacalos)

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This paper presents one aspect of the larger Masters qualitative study exploring the roles of married Greek Orthodox clergy, the Priest and Presbytera, under the wing of the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of Australia. This ground breaking research necessitated the creation of primary data within a phenomenological paradigm drawing from lived experiences of the Priests and Presbyteres in contemporary society. As a Social Worker, a bilingual (Greek/English) Mental Health practitioner and a Presbytera, the questions constantly raised and pondered are: Who do the Priest and Presbytera turn to when they experience difficulties or problems? Where do they go for support? What is in place for their emotional and psychological health and well-being? Who cares for the spiritual carer? Who is there to catch our falling clergy and their wives? What is their 'safety net'? Identified phenomena of angst, stress, frustration and confusion experienced by the Priest and (by extension) the Presbytera, within their position, coupled with basic assumptions, perceptions and expectations about their roles, the role of the organisation (the Church), and their role as spouse often caused confusion and in some cases conflict. Unpacking this complex and multi-dimensional relationship highlighted not only the roller coaster of emotions, potentially affecting their physical and mental health, but also the impact on the interwoven relationships of marriage and ministry. The author considers these phenomena in the light of bilingual cultural and religious organisational practice frameworks, specifically the Greek Orthodox Church, whilst filtering these findings through a mental health lens. One could argue that it is an expectation that clergy (and by default their wives) take on the responsibility to be kind, nurturing and supportive to others. However, when it comes to taking care of self, they are not nearly as kind. This research looks at a recurrent theme throughout the interviews where all participants talked about limited support systems and poor self care strategies and the impact this has on their ministry, mental, emotional, and physical health and ultimately on their relationships with self and others. The struggle all participants encountered at some point in their ministry was physical, spiritual and psychological burn out. The overall aim of the researcher is to provide a voice for the Priest and the Presbytera painting a clearer picture of these roles and facilitating an awareness of struggles and dilemmas faced in their ministry. It is hoped these identified gaps in self care strategies and support systems will provide solid foundations for building a culturally sensitive, empathetic and effective support system framework, incorporating the spiritual and psychological well-being of the Priest and Presbytera, a ‘safety net’. A supplementary aim is to inform and guide ministry practice frameworks for clergy, spouses, the church hierarchy and religious organisations on a local and global platform incorporating some sort of self-care system.

Keywords: care for the carer, mental health, Priest, Presbytera, religion, support system

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Authors: Aritra Das, Tanmay Mahapatra, Prabir Maharana, Sridhar Srikantiah

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In the absence of adequate well-equipped neonatal-care facilities serving rural Bihar, India, the practice of essential home-based newborn-care remains critically important for reduction of neonatal and infant mortality, especially among pre-term and small-for-gestational-age (Low-birth-weight) newborns. To improve the child health parameters in Bihar, ‘Very-Low-Birth-Weight (vLBW) Tracking’ intervention is being conducted by CARE India, since 2015, targeting public facility-delivered newborns weighing ≤2000g at birth, to improve their identification and provision of immediate post-natal care. To assess the effectiveness of the intervention, 200 public health facilities were randomly selected from all functional public-sector delivery points in Bihar and various outcomes were tracked among the neonates born there. Thus far, one pre-intervention (Feb-Apr’2015-born neonates) and three post-intervention (for Sep-Oct’2015, Sep-Oct’2016 and Sep-Oct’2017-born children) follow-up studies were conducted. In each round, interviews were conducted with the mothers/caregivers of successfully-tracked children to understand outcome, service-coverage and care-seeking during the neonatal period. Data from 171 matched facilities common across all rounds were analyzed using SAS-9.4. Identification of neonates with birth-weight ≤ 2000g improved from 2% at baseline to 3.3%-4% during post-intervention. All indicators pertaining to post-natal home-visits by frontline-workers (FLWs) improved. Significant improvements between baseline and post-intervention rounds were also noted regarding mothers being informed about ‘weak’ child – at the facility (R1 = 25 to R4 = 50%) and at home by FLW (R1 = 19%, to R4 = 30%). Practice of ‘Kangaroo-Mother-Care (KMC)’– an important component of essential newborn care – showed significant improvement in postintervention period compared to baseline in both facility (R1 = 15% to R4 = 31%) and home (R1 = 10% to R4=29%). Increasing trend was noted regarding detection and birth weight-recording of the extremely low-birth-weight newborns (< 1500 g) showed an increasing trend. Moreover, there was a downward trend in mortality across rounds, in each birth-weight strata (< 1500g, 1500-1799g and >= 1800g). After adjustment for the differential distribution of birth-weights, mortality was found to decline significantly from R1 (22.11%) to R4 (11.87%). Significantly declining trend was also observed for both early and late neonatal mortality and morbidities. Multiple regression analysis identified - birth during immediate post-intervention phase as well as that during the maintenance phase, birth weight > 1500g, children of low-parity mothers, receiving visit from FLW in the first week and/or receiving advice on extra care from FLW as predictors of survival during neonatal period among vLBW newborns. vLBW tracking was found to be a successful and sustainable intervention and has already been handed over to the Government.

Keywords: weak newborn tracking, very low birth weight babies, newborn care, community response

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Authors: E. A. Krasikov

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As the service life of an operating nuclear power plant (NPP) increases, the potential misunderstanding of the degradation of aging components must receive more attention. Integrity assurance analysis contributes to the effective maintenance of adequate plant safety margins. In essence, the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is the key structural component determining the NPP lifetime. Environmentally induced cracking in the stainless steel corrosion-preventing cladding of RPV’s has been recognized to be one of the technical problems in the maintenance and development of light-water reactors. Extensive cracking leading to failure of the cladding was found after 13000 net hours of operation in JPDR (Japan Power Demonstration Reactor). Some of the cracks have reached the base metal and further penetrated into the RPV in the form of localized corrosion. Failures of reactor internal components in both boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors have increased after the accumulation of relatively high neutron fluences (5´1020 cm–2, E>0,5MeV). Therefore, in the case of cladding failure, the problem arises of hydrogen (as a corrosion product) embrittlement of irradiated RPV steel because of exposure to the coolant. At present when notable progress in plasma physics has been obtained practical energy utilization from fusion reactors (FR) is determined by the state of material science problems. The last includes not only the routine problems of nuclear engineering but also a number of entirely new problems connected with extreme conditions of materials operation – irradiation environment, hydrogenation, thermocycling, etc. Limiting data suggest that the combined effect of these factors is more severe than any one of them alone. To clarify the possible influence of the in-service synergistic phenomena on the FR structural materials properties we have studied hydrogen-irradiated steel interaction including alternating hydrogenation and heat treatment (annealing). Available information indicates that the life of the first wall could be expanded by means of periodic in-place annealing. The effects of neutron fluence and irradiation temperature on steel/hydrogen interactions (adsorption, desorption, diffusion, mechanical properties at different loading velocities, post-irradiation annealing) were studied. Experiments clearly reveal that the higher the neutron fluence and the lower the irradiation temperature, the more hydrogen-radiation defects occur, with corresponding effects on the steel mechanical properties. Hydrogen accumulation analyses and thermal desorption investigations were performed to prove the evidence of hydrogen trapping at irradiation defects. Extremely high susceptibility to hydrogen embrittlement was observed with specimens which had been irradiated at relatively low temperature. However, the susceptibility decreases with increasing irradiation temperature. To evaluate methods for the RPV’s residual lifetime evaluation and prediction, more work should be done on the irradiated metal–hydrogen interaction in order to monitor more reliably the status of irradiated materials.

Keywords: hydrogen, radiation, stability, structural steel

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Authors: Kitoholi V. Zhimo

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Unlike the cases of cases of homosexuals, haemophilic and or drug users in USA, France, Africa and other countries, in India the first case of HIV/AIDS was detected in heterosexual female sex workers (FSW) in Chennai in 1986. This image played an important role in understanding HIV/AIDS scenario in the country. Similar to popular and dominant metaphors on HIV/AIDS such as ‘gay plague’, ‘new cancer’, ‘lethal disease’, ‘slim disease’, ‘foreign disease’, ‘junkie disease’, etc. around the world, the social construction of the virus was largely attributed to women in India. It was established that women particularly sex workers are ‘carrier’ and ‘transmitter’ of virus and were categorised as High Risk Groups (HRG’s) alongside homosexuals, transgenders and injecting drug users. Recent literature reveals growing rate of HIV infection among housewives since 1997 which revolutionised public health scenario in India. This means shift from high risk group to general public through ‘bridge population’ encompassing long distance truckers and migrant labours who at the expense of their nature of work and mobility comes in contact with HRG’s and transmit the virus to the general public especially women who are confined to the domestic space. As HIV epidemic expands, married women in monogamous relationship/marriage stand highly susceptible to infection with limited control, right and access over their sexual and reproductive health and planning. In context of Nagaland, a small state in North-eastern part of India HIV/AIDS transmission through injecting drug use dominated the early scene of the epidemic. However, paradigm shift occurred with declining trend of HIV prevalence among injecting drug users (IDU’s) over the past years with the introduction of Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) and easy access/availability of syringes and injecting needles. Reflection on statistical data reveals that out of 36 states and union territories in India, the position of Nagaland in HIV prevalence among IDU’s has significantly dropped down from 6th position in 2003 to 16th position in 2017. The present face of virus in Nagaland is defined by (hetero) sexual mode of transmission which accounts for about 91% of as reported by Nagaland state AIDS control society (NSACS) in 2016 wherein young and married woman were found to be most affected leading to feminization of HIV/AIDS epidemic in the state. Thus, not only is HIV epidemic feminised but emerged victim to domestic violence which is more often accepted as normal part of heterosexual relationship. In the backdrop of these understanding, the present paper based on ethnographic fieldwork explores the plight, lived experiences and images of HIV+ve women with regard to sexual and reproductive rights against the backdrop of patriarchal system in Nagaland.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, monogamy, Nagaland, sex worker disease, women

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Authors: A. V. Harutyunyan

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The investigation results of rocks at high pressures and temperatures have revealed the intervals of changes of seismic waves and density, as well as some processes taking place in rocks. In the serpentinized rocks, as a consequence of dehydration, abrupt changes in seismic waves and density have been recorded. Hydrogen-bearing components are released which combine with carbon-bearing components. As a result, hydrocarbons formed. The investigated samples are smelted. Then, geofluids and hydrocarbons migrate into the upper horizons of the Earth crust by the deep faults. Then their differentiation and accumulation in the jointed rocks of the faults and in the layers with collecting properties takes place. Under the majority of the hydrocarbon deposits, at a certain depth, magmatic centers and deep faults are recorded. The investigation results of the serpentinized rocks with numerous geological-geophysical factual data allow understanding that hydrocarbons are mainly formed in both the offshore part of the ocean and at different depths of the continental crust. Experiments have also shown that the dehydration of the serpentinized rocks is accompanied by an explosion with the instantaneous increase in pressure and temperature and smelting the studied rocks. According to numerous publications, hydrocarbons and diamonds are formed in the upper part of the mantle, at the depths of 200-400km, and as a consequence of geodynamic processes, they rise to the upper horizons of the Earth crust through narrow channels. However, the genesis of metamorphogenic diamonds and the diamonds found in the lava streams formed within the Earth crust, remains unclear. As at dehydration, super high pressures and temperatures arise. It is assumed that diamond crystals are formed from carbon containing components present in the dehydration zone. It can be assumed that besides the explosion at dehydration, secondary explosions of the released hydrogen take place. The process is naturally accompanied by seismic phenomena, causing earthquakes of different magnitudes on the surface. As for the diamondiferous kimberlites, it is well-known that the majority of them are located within the ancient shield and platforms not obligatorily connected with the deep faults. The kimberlites are formed at the shallow location of dehydrated masses in the Earth crust. Kimberlites are younger in respect of containing ancient rocks containing serpentinized bazites and ultrbazites of relicts of the paleooceanic crust. Sometimes, diamonds containing water and hydrocarbons showing their simultaneous genesis are found. So, the geofluids, hydrocarbons and diamonds, according to the new concept put forward, are formed simultaneously from serpentinized rocks as a consequence of their dehydration at different depths of the Earth crust. Based on the concept proposed by us, we suggest discussing the following: -Genesis of gigantic hydrocarbon deposits located in the offshore area of oceans (North American, Mexican Gulf, Cuanza-Kamerunian, East Brazilian etc.) as well as in the continental parts of different mainlands (Kanadian-Arctic Caspian, East Siberian etc.) - Genesis of metamorphogenic diamonds and diamonds in the lava streams (Guinea-Liberian, Kokchetav, Kanadian, Kamchatka-Tolbachinian, etc.).

Keywords: dehydration, diamonds, hydrocarbons, serpentinites

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Authors: Mariia A. Parfenenko, Ilya S. Dantsev, Sergei V. Bochenkov, Natalia V. Vinogradova, Olga S. Groznova, Victoria Yu. Voinova

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Introduction: Autism is the most common neurodevelopmental disorder. Autism is characterized by difficulties in social interaction and adherence to stereotypic behavioral patterns and frequently co-occurs with epilepsy, intellectual disabilities, connective tissue disorders, and other conditions. CHD8 codes for chromodomain-helicase-DNA-binding protein 8 - a chromatin remodeler that regulates cellular proliferation and neurodevelopment in embryogenesis. CHD8 is one of the genes most frequently involved in autism. Patients and methods: 2 unrelated male patients, P3 and P12, aged 3 and 12 years old, underwent whole genome sequencing, which determined that they both had different likely pathogenic variants, both previously undescribed in literature. Sanger sequencing later determined that P12 inherited the variant from his affected mother. Results: P3 and P12 presented with autism, a developmental delay, ataxia, sleep disorders, overgrowth, and macrocephaly, as well as other clinical features typically present in patients with causative variants in CHD8. The mother of P12 also has autistic traits, as well as ataxia, hypotonia, sleep disorders, and other symptoms. However, P3 and P12 also have different cardiac abnormalities. P3 had signs of a repolarization disorder: a flattened T wave in the III and aVF derivations and a negative T wave in the V1-V2 derivations. He also had structural valve anomalies with associated regurgitation, local contractility impairment of the left ventricular, and diastolic dysfunction of the right ventricle. Meanwhile, P12 had Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome and underwent radiofrequency ablation at the age of 2 years. At the time of observation, P12 had mild sinus arrhythmia and an incomplete right bundle branch block, as well as arterial hypertension. Discussion: Cardiac abnormalities were not previously reported in patients with causative variants in CHD8. The underlying mechanism for the formation of those abnormalities is currently unknown. However, the two hypotheses are either a disordered interaction with CHD7 – another chromodomain remodeler known to be directly involved in the cardiophenotype of CHARGE syndrome – a rare condition characterized by coloboma, heart defects and growth abnormalities, or the disrupted functioning of CHD8 as an A-Kinase Anchoring Protein, which are known to modulate cardiac function. Conclusion: We observed 2 unrelated autistic males with likely pathogenic variants in CHD8 that presented with typical symptoms of CHD8-related neurodevelopmental disorder, as well as cardiac abnormalities. Cardiac abnormalities have, until now, been considered uncharacteristic for patients with causative variants in CHD8. Further accumulation of data, including experimental evidence of the involvement of CHD8 in heart formation, will elucidate the mechanism underlying the cardiophenotype of those patients. Acknowledgements: Molecular genetic testing of the patients was made possible by the Charity Fund for medical and social genetic aid projects «Life Genome.»

Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, chromodomain-helicase-DNA-binding protein 8, neurodevelopmental disorder, cardio phenotype

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Authors: Majid Manawer Alenezi, Gavin Lawrence, Hans-Peter Kubis

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Imagery training could be an important treatment for muscle function improvements in patients who are facing limitations in exercise training by pain or other adverse symptoms. However, recent studies are mostly limited to small muscle groups and are often contradictory. Moreover, a possible bilateral transfer effect of imagery training has not been examined. We, therefore, investigated the effectiveness of unilateral imagery training in comparison with exercise training on hip abductor muscle strength and EMG. Additionally, both limbs were assessed to investigate bilateral transfer effects. Healthy individuals took part in an imagery or exercise training intervention for two weeks and were assesses pre and post training. Participants (n=30), after randomization into an imagery and an exercise group, trained 5 times a week under supervision with additional self-performed training on the weekends. The training consisted of performing, or to imagine, 5 maximal isometric hip abductor contractions (= one set), repeating the set 7 times. All measurements and trainings were performed laying on the side on a dynamometer table. The imagery script combined kinesthetic and visual imagery with internal perspective for producing imagined maximal hip abduction contractions. The exercise group performed the same number of tasks but performing the maximal hip abductor contractions. Maximal hip abduction strength and EMG amplitudes were measured of right and left limbs pre- and post-training period. Additionally, handgrip strength and right shoulder abduction (Strength and EMG) were measured. Using mixed model ANOVA (strength measures) and Wilcoxen-tests (EMGs), data revealed a significant increase in hip abductor strength production in the imagery group on the trained right limb (~6%). However, this was not reported for the exercise group. Additionally, the left hip abduction strength (not used for training) did not show a main effect in strength, however, there was a significant interaction of group and time revealing that the strength increased in the imagery group while it remained constant in the exercise group. EMG recordings supported the strength findings showing significant elevation of EMG amplitudes after imagery training on right and left side, while the exercise training group did not show any changes. Moreover, measures of handgrip strength and shoulder abduction showed no effects over time and no interactions in both groups. Experiments showed that imagery training is a suitable method for effectively increasing functional parameters of larger limb muscles (strength and EMG) which were enhanced on both sides (trained and untrained) confirming a bilateral transfer effect. Indeed, exercise training did not reveal any increases in the parameters above omitting functional improvements. The healthy individuals tested might not easily achieve benefits from exercise training within the time tested. However, it is evident that imagery training is effective in increasing the central motor command towards the muscles and that the effect seems to be segmental (no increase in handgrip strength and shoulder abduction parameters) and affects both sides (trained and untrained). In conclusion, imagery training was effective in functional improvements in limb muscles and produced a bilateral transfer on strength and EMG measures.

Keywords: imagery, exercise, physiotherapy, motor imagery

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Authors: Salwa Mohamed Salah Eldin, Howida Kamal Ibrahim

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Introduction: Major depressive disorder affects high proportion of the world’s population presenting cost load in health care. Extended release venlafaxine is more convenient and could reduce discontinuation syndrome. The once daily dosing also reduces the potential for adverse events such as nausea due to reduced Cmax. Venlafaxine is an effective first-line agent in the treatment of depression. A once daily formulation was designed to enhance patient compliance. Complexing with a resin was suggested to improve loading of the water soluble drug. The formulated systems were thoroughly evaluated in vitro to prove superiority to previous trials and were compared to the commercial extended release product in experimental animals. Materials and Methods: Venlafaxine-resinates were prepared using Dowex®50WX4-400 and Dowex®50WX8-100 at drug to resin weight ratio of 1: 1. The prepared resinates were evaluated for their drug content, particle shape and surface properties and in vitro release profile in gradient pH. The release kinetics and mechanism were evaluated. Venlafaxine-Dowex® resinates were encapsulated using O/W solvent evaporation technique. Poly-ε-caprolactone, Poly(D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) ester, Poly(D, L-lactide) ester and Eudragit®RS100 were used as coating polymers alone and in combination. Drug-resinate microcapsules were evaluated for morphology, entrapment efficiency and in-vitro release profile. The selected formula was tested in rabbits using a randomized, single-dose, 2-way crossover study against Effexor-XR tablets under fasting condition. Results and Discussion: The equilibrium time was 30 min for Dowex®50WX4-400 and 90 min for Dowex®50WX8-100. The percentage drug loaded was 93.96 and 83.56% for both resins, respectively. Both drug-Dowex® resintes were efficient in sustaining venlafaxine release in comparison to the free drug (up to 8h.). Dowex®50WX4-400 based venlafaxine-resinate was selected for further encapsulation to optimize the release profile for once daily dosing and to lower the burst effect. The selected formula (coated with a mixture of Eudragit RS and PLGA in a ratio of 50/50) was chosen by applying a group of mathematical equations according to targeted values. It recorded the minimum burst effect, the maximum MDT (Mean dissolution time) and a Q24h (percentage drug released after 24 hours) between 95 and 100%. The 90% confidence intervals for the test/reference mean ratio of the log-transformed data of AUC0–24 and AUC0−∞ are within (0.8–1.25), which satisfies the bioequivalence criteria. Conclusion: The optimized formula could be a promising extended release form of the water soluble, short half lived venlafaxine. Being a multiple unit formulation, it lowers the probability of dose dumping and reduces the inter-subject variability in absorption.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, cation-exchange resin, microencapsulation, venlafaxine hcl

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Authors: Gheorghe Braniste

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The management of the training process in sports is closely related to the awareness of the close connection between performance and the morphological, functional and psychological characteristics of the athlete's body. Achieving high results in Olympic sports is influenced, on the one hand, by the genetically determined characteristics of the body and, on the other hand, by the morphological, functional and motor abilities of the athlete. Taking into account the importance of properly understanding the evolutionary specificity of athletes to assess their competitive potential, this study provides a comparative analysis of the parameters that characterize the growth and development of the level of adaptation of sweeping rowers, considering the growth interval between 12 and 20 years. The study established that, in the multi-annual training process, the bodies of the targeted athletes register significant adaptive changes while analyzing parameters of the morphological, functional, psychomotor and sports-technical spheres. As a result of the influence of physical efforts, both specific and non-specific, there is an increase in the adaptability of the body, its transfer to a much higher level of functionality within the parameters, useful and economical adaptive reactions influenced by environmental factors, be they internal or external. The research was carried out for 7 years, on a group of 28 athletes, following their evolution and recording the specific parameters of each age stage. In order to determine the level of physical, morpho-functional, psychomotor development and technical training of rowers, the screening data were applied at the State University of Physical Education and Sports in the Republic of Moldova. During the research, measurements were made on the waist, in the standing and sitting position, arm span, weight, circumference and chest perimeter, vital capacity of the lungs, with the subsequent determination of the vital index (tolerance level to oxygen deficiency in venous blood in Stange and Genchi breath-taking tests that characterize the level of oxygen saturation, absolute and relative strength of the hand and back, calculation of body mass and morphological maturity indices (Kettle index), body surface area (body gait), psychomotor tests (Romberg test), test-tepping 10 s., reaction to a moving object, visual and auditory-motor reaction, recording of technical parameters of rowing on a competitive distance of 200 m. At the end of the study it was found that highly performance is sports is to be associated on the one hand with the genetically determined characteristics of the body and, on the other hand, with favorable adaptive reactions and energy saving, as well as morphofunctional changes influenced by internal and external environmental factors. The importance of the results obtained at the end of the study was positively reflected in obtaining the maximum level of training of athletes in order to demonstrate performance in large-scale competitions and mostly in the Olympic Games.

Keywords: olympics, parameters, performance, peak

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Authors: Pengzhou Lu, Liming Xin, Payam Tavakoli, Zhonghua Lin, Roberto V. P. Ribeiro, Mitesh V. Badiwala

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Ex vivo Heart Perfusion (EVHP) has been developed as an alternative strategy to expand cardiac donation by enabling resuscitation and functional assessment of hearts donated from marginal donors, which were previously not accepted. EVHP parameters, such as perfusion flow (PF) and perfusion pressure (PP) are crucial for optimal organ preservation. However, with the heart’s constant physiological changes during EVHP, such as coronary vascular resistance, manual control of these parameters is rendered imprecise and cumbersome for the operator. Additionally, low control precision and the long adjusting time may lead to irreversible damage to the myocardial tissue. To solve this problem, an automatic heart perfusion system was developed by applying a Human-Machine Interface (HMI) and a Programmable-Logic-Controller (PLC)-based circuit to control PF and PP. The PLC-based control system collects the data of PF and PP through flow probes and pressure transducers. It has two control modes: the RPM-flow mode and the pressure mode. The RPM-flow control mode is an open-loop system. It influences PF through providing and maintaining the desired speed inputted through the HMI to the centrifugal pump with a maximum error of 20 rpm. The pressure control mode is a closed-loop system where the operator selects a target Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) to control PP. The inputs of the pressure control mode are the target MAP, received through the HMI, and the real MAP, received from the pressure transducer. A PID algorithm is applied to maintain the real MAP at the target value with a maximum error of 1mmHg. The precision and control speed of the RPM-flow control mode were examined by comparing the PLC-based system to an experienced operator (EO) across seven RPM adjustment ranges (500, 1000, 2000 and random RPM changes; 8 trials per range) tested in a random order. System’s PID algorithm performance in pressure control was assessed during 10 EVHP experiments using porcine hearts. Precision was examined through monitoring the steady-state pressure error throughout perfusion period, and stabilizing speed was tested by performing two MAP adjustment changes (4 trials per change) of 15 and 20mmHg. A total of 56 trials were performed to validate the RPM-flow control mode. Overall, the PLC-based system demonstrated the significantly faster speed than the EO in all trials (PLC 1.21±0.03, EO 3.69±0.23 seconds; p < 0.001) and greater precision to reach the desired RPM (PLC 10±0.7, EO 33±2.7 mean RPM error; p < 0.001). Regarding pressure control, the PLC-based system has the median precision of ±1mmHg error and the median stabilizing times in changing 15 and 20mmHg of MAP are 15 and 19.5 seconds respectively. The novel PLC-based control system was 3 times faster with 60% less error than the EO for RPM-flow control. In pressure control mode, it demonstrates a high precision and fast stabilizing speed. In summary, this novel system successfully controlled perfusion flow and pressure with high precision, stability and a fast response time through a user-friendly interface. This design may provide a viable technique for future development of novel heart preservation and assessment strategies during EVHP.

Keywords: automatic control system, biomedical engineering, ex-vivo heart perfusion, human-machine interface, programmable logic controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Areej Al-Khabbaz, Swapna Goerge, Majedah Abdul-Rasoul

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Introduction: The most prevalent periodontal disease among children is gingivitis, and it usually becomes more severe in adolescence. A number of intervention studies suggested that resolution of periodontal inflammation can improve metabolic control in patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus. Aim: to assess the effect of non-surgical periodontal therapy on glycemic control of children diagnosed with diabetes mellitus. Method: Twenty-eight children diagnosed with diabetes mellitus were recruited with established diagnosis diabetes for at least 1 year. Informed consent and child assent form were obtained from children and parents prior to enrolment. The dental examination for the participants was performed on the same week directly following their annual medical assessment. All patients had their glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) test one week prior to their annual medical and dental visit and 3 months following non-surgical periodontal therapy. All patients received a comprehensive periodontal examination The periodontal assessment included clinical attachment loss, bleeding on probing, plaque score, plaque index and gingival index. All patients were referred for non-surgical periodontal therapy, which included oral hygiene instruction and motivation followed by supra-gingival and subg-ingival scaling using ultrasonic and hand instruments. Statistical Analysis: Data were entered and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science software (SPSS, Chicago, USA), version 18. Statistical analysis of clinical findings was performed to detect differences between the two groups in term of periodontal findings and HbA1c%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed in order to examine which factors were significant in multivariate analysis after adjusting for confounding between effects. The regression model used the dependent variable ‘Improved glycemic control’, and the independent variables entered in the model were plaque index, gingival index, bleeding %, plaque Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Result: A total of 28 children. The mean age of the participants was 13.3±1.92 years. The study participants were divided into two groups; Compliant group (received dental scaling) and non-complaints group (received oral hygiene instructions only). No statistical difference was found between compliant and non-compliant group in age, gender distribution, oral hygiene practice and the level of diabetes control. There was a significant difference between compliant and non-compliant group in term of improvement of HBa1c before and after periodontal therapy. Mean gingival index was the only significant variable associated with improved glycemic control level. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that non-surgical mechanical periodontal therapy can improve HbA1c% control. The result of this study confirmed that children with diabetes mellitus who are compliant to dental care and have routine professional scaling may have better metabolic control compared to diabetic children who are erratic with dental care.

Keywords: children, diabetes, metabolic control, periodontal therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: S. Sabatino, V. Calderaro, V. Galdi, G. Graber, L. Ippolito

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Climate change is a rapidly growing global threat caused mainly by increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. These emissions come from multiple sources, including industry, power generation, and the transport sector. The need to tackle climate change and reduce CO₂ emissions is indisputable. A crucial solution to achieving decarbonization in the transport sector is the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). These vehicles use lithium (Li-Ion) batteries as an energy source, making them extremely efficient and with low direct emissions. However, Li-Ion batteries are not without problems, including the risk of overheating and performance degradation. To ensure its safety and longevity, it is essential to use a battery management system (BMS). The BMS constantly monitors battery status, adjusts temperature and cell balance, ensuring optimal performance and preventing dangerous situations. From the monitoring carried out, it is also able to optimally manage the battery to increase its life. Among the parameters monitored by the BMS, the main ones are State of Charge (SoC), State of Health (SoH), and State of Power (SoP). The evaluation of these parameters can be carried out in two ways: offline, using benchtop batteries tested in the laboratory, or online, using batteries installed in moving vehicles. Online estimation is the preferred approach, as it relies on capturing real-time data from batteries while operating in real-life situations, such as in everyday EV use. Actual battery usage conditions are highly variable. Moving vehicles are exposed to a wide range of factors, including temperature variations, different driving styles, and complex charge/discharge cycles. This variability is difficult to replicate in a controlled laboratory environment and can greatly affect performance and battery life. Online estimation captures this variety of conditions, providing a more accurate assessment of battery behavior in real-world situations. In this article, a hybrid approach based on a neural network and a statistical method for real-time estimation of SoC, SoH, and SoP parameters of interest is proposed. These parameters are estimated from the analysis of a one-day driving profile of an electric vehicle, assumed to be divided into the following four phases: (i) Partial discharge (SoC 100% - SoC 50%), (ii) Partial discharge (SoC 50% - SoC 80%), (iii) Deep Discharge (SoC 80% - SoC 30%) (iv) Full charge (SoC 30% - SoC 100%). The neural network predicts the values of ohmic resistance and incremental capacity, while the statistical method is used to estimate the parameters of interest. This reduces the complexity of the model and improves its prediction accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated by analyzing its performance in terms of square mean error (RMSE) and percentage error (MAPE) and comparing it with the reference method found in the literature.

Keywords: electric vehicle, Li-Ion battery, BMS, state-of-charge, state-of-health, state-of-power, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Jason M. Hegenauer, Nicholas Fucci

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In the late 1990s, a major deinstitutionalization movement of elderly patients took place, since which, the design of long-term care facilities has not been adequately analyzed in the United States. Over the course of the last 25 years, major innovations in construction methods, technology, and medicine have been developed, drastically changing the landscape of healthcare architecture. In light of recent events, and the expected increase in elderly populations with the aging of the baby-boomer generation, it is evident that reconsideration of these facilities is essential for the proper care of aging populations. The global response has been effective in stifling this pandemic; however, widespread disease still poses an imminent threat to the human race. Having witnessed the devastation Covid-19 has reaped throughout nursing homes and long-term care facilities, it is evident that the current strategies for protecting our most vulnerable populations are not enough. Light renovation of existing facilities and previously overlooked considerations for new construction projects can drastically lower the risk at nursing homes and long-term care facilities. A reconfigured entry sequence supplements several of the features which have been long-standing essentials of the design of these facilities. This research focuses on several aspects identified as needing improvement, including indoor environment quality, security measures incorporated into healthcare architecture and design, and architectural mitigation strategies for sick building syndrome. The results of this study have been compiled as 'best practices' for the design of future healthcare construction projects focused on the health, safety, and quality of life of the residents of these facilities. These design strategies, which can easily be implemented through renovation of existing facilities and new construction projects, minimize risk of infection and spread of disease while allowing routine functions to continue with minimal impact, should the need for future lockdowns arise. Through the current lockdown procedures, which were implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic, isolation of residents has caused great unrest and worry for family members and friends as they are cut off from their loved ones. At this time, data is still being reported, leaving infection and death rates inconclusive; however, recent projections in some states list long-term care facility deaths as high as 60% of all deaths in the state. The population of these facilities consists of residents who are elderly, immunocompromised, and have underlying chronic medical conditions. According to the Centers for Disease Control, these populations are particularly susceptible to infection and serious illness. The obligation to protect our most vulnerable population cannot be overlooked, and the harsh measures recently taken as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic prove that the design strategies currently utilized for doing so are inadequate.

Keywords: building security, healthcare architecture and design, indoor environment quality, new construction, sick building syndrome, renovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Anna Solovyeva, Ivan Levakin, Nickolai Galaktionov, Olga Podgornaya

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Animals that reproduce asexually were thought to have the same genotypes within generations for a long time. However, some refuting examples were found, and mobile genetic elements (MGEs) or transposons are considered to be the most probable source of genetic instability. Dispersed nature and the ability to change their genomic localization enables MGEs to be efficient mutators. Hence the study of MGEs genomic impact requires an appropriate object which comprehends both representative amounts of various MGEs and options to evaluate the genomic influence of MGEs. Animals that reproduce asexually seem to be a decent model to study MGEs impact in genomic variability. We found a small marine trematode Himasthla elongata (Himasthlidae) to be a good model for such investigation as it has a small genome size, diverse MGEs and parthenogenetic stages in the lifecycle. In the current work, clonal diversity of cercaria was traced with an AFLP (Amplified fragment length polymorphism) method, diverse zones from electrophoretic patterns were cloned, and the nature of the fragments explored. Polymorphic patterns of individual cercariae AFLP-based fingerprints are enriched with retrotransposons of different families. The bulk of those sequences are represented by open reading frames of non-Long Terminal Repeats containing elements(non-LTR) yet Long-Terminal Repeats containing elements (LTR), to a lesser extent in variable figments of AFLP array. The CR1 elements expose both in polymorphic and conservative patterns are remarkably more frequent than the other non-LTR retrotransposons. This data was confirmed with shotgun sequencing-based on Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Individual cercaria of the same clone (i.e., originated from a single miracidium and inhabiting one host) has a various distribution of MGE families detected in sequenced AFLP patterns. The most numerous are CR1 and RTE-Bov retrotransposons, typical for trematode genomes. Also, we identified LTR-retrotransposons of Pao and Gypsy families among DNA transposons of CMC-EnSpm, Tc1/Mariner, MuLE-MuDR and Merlin families. We detected many of them in H. elongata transcriptome. Such uneven MGEs distribution in AFLP sequences’ sets reflects the different patterns of transposons spreading in cercarial genomes as transposons affect the genome in many ways (ectopic recombination, gene structure interruption, epigenetic silencing). It is considered that they play a key role in the origins of trematode clonal polymorphism. The authors greatly appreciate the help received at the Kartesh White Sea Biological Station of the Russian Academy of Sciences Zoological Institute. This work is funded with RSF 19-74-20102 and RFBR 17-04-02161 grants and the research program of the Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (project number AAAA-A19-119020690109-2).

Keywords: AFLP, clonal polymorphism, Himasthla elongata, mobile genetic elements, NGS

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

Procedia PDF Downloads 109