Search results for: high risk groups

Authors: B. Neethu, Diptesh Das

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The present study investigates the performance of a semi-active controller using magneto-rheological dampers (MR) for seismic response reduction of a multi-span bridge. The application of structural control to the structures during earthquake excitation involves numerous challenges such as proper formulation and selection of the control strategy, mathematical modeling of the system, uncertainty in system parameters and noisy measurements. These problems, however, need to be tackled in order to design and develop controllers which will efficiently perform in such complex systems. A control algorithm, which can accommodate un-certainty and imprecision compared to all the other algorithms mentioned so far, due to its inherent robustness and ability to cope with the parameter uncertainties and imprecisions, is the sliding mode algorithm. A sliding mode control algorithm is adopted in the present study due to its inherent stability and distinguished robustness to system parameter variation and external disturbances. In general a semi-active control scheme using an MR damper requires two nested controllers: (i) an overall system controller, which derives the control force required to be applied to the structure and (ii) an MR damper voltage controller which determines the voltage required to be supplied to the damper in order to generate the desired control force. In the present study a sliding mode algorithm is used to determine the desired optimal force. The function of the voltage controller is to command the damper to produce the desired force. The clipped optimal algorithm is used to find the command voltage supplied to the MR damper which is regulated by a semi active control law based on sliding mode algorithm. The main objective of the study is to propose a robust semi active control which can effectively control the responses of the bridge under real earthquake ground motions. Lumped mass model of the bridge is developed and time history analysis is carried out by solving the governing equations of motion in the state space form. The effectiveness of MR dampers is studied by analytical simulations by subjecting the bridge to real earthquake records. In this regard, it may also be noted that the performance of controllers depends, to a great extent, on the characteristics of the input ground motions. Therefore, in order to study the robustness of the controller in the present study, the performance of the controllers have been investigated for fourteen different earthquake ground motion records. The earthquakes are chosen in such a way that all possible characteristic variations can be accommodated. Out of these fourteen earthquakes, seven are near-field and seven are far-field. Also, these earthquakes are divided into different frequency contents, viz, low-frequency, medium-frequency, and high-frequency earthquakes. The responses of the controlled bridge are compared with the responses of the corresponding uncontrolled bridge (i.e., the bridge without any control devices). The results of the numerical study show that the sliding mode based semi-active control strategy can substantially reduce the seismic responses of the bridge showing a stable and robust performance for all the earthquakes.

Keywords: bridge, semi active control, sliding mode control, MR damper

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Authors: Robert Rorie, Lisa Fern

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The integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) poses a variety of technical challenges to UAS developers and aviation regulators. In response to growing demand for access to civil airspace in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has produced a roadmap identifying key areas requiring further research and development. One such technical challenge is the development of a ‘detect and avoid’ system (DAA; previously referred to as ‘sense and avoid’) to replace the ‘see and avoid’ requirement in manned aviation. The purpose of the DAA system is to support the pilot, situated at a ground control station (GCS) rather than in the cockpit of the aircraft, in maintaining ‘well clear’ of nearby aircraft through the use of GCS displays and alerts. In addition to its primary function of aiding the pilot in maintaining well clear, the DAA system must also safely interoperate with existing NAS systems and operations, such as the airspace management procedures of air traffic controllers (ATC) and collision avoidance (CA) systems currently in use by manned aircraft, namely the Traffic alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) II. It is anticipated that many UAS architectures will integrate both a DAA system and a TCAS II. It is therefore necessary to explicitly study the integration of DAA and TCAS II alerting structures and maneuver guidance formats to ensure that pilots understand the appropriate type and urgency of their response to the various alerts. This paper presents a concept of interoperability for the two systems. The concept was developed with the goal of avoiding any negative impact on the performance level of TCAS II (understanding that TCAS II must largely be left as-is) while retaining a DAA system that still effectively enables pilots to maintain well clear, and, as a result, successfully reduces the frequency of collision hazards. The interoperability concept described in the paper focuses primarily on facilitating the transition from a late-stage DAA encounter (where a loss of well clear is imminent) to a TCAS II corrective Resolution Advisory (RA), which requires pilot compliance with the directive RA guidance (e.g., climb, descend) within five seconds of its issuance. The interoperability concept was presented to 10 participants (6 active UAS pilots and 4 active commercial pilots) in a medium-fidelity, human-in-the-loop simulation designed to stress different aspects of the DAA and TCAS II systems. Pilot response times, compliance rates and subjective assessments were recorded. Results indicated that pilots exhibited comprehension of, and appropriate prioritization within, the DAA-TCAS II combined alert structure. Pilots demonstrated a high rate of compliance with TCAS II RAs and were also seen to respond to corrective RAs within the five second requirement established for manned aircraft. The DAA system presented under test was also shown to be effective in supporting pilots’ ability to maintain well clear in the overwhelming majority of cases in which pilots had sufficient time to respond. The paper ends with a discussion of next steps for research on integrating UAS into civil airspace.

Keywords: detect and avoid, interoperability, traffic alert and collision avoidance system (TCAS II), unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: E. Poupelloz, S. Gauffinet

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Ettringite Ca₆Al₂(SO₄)₃(OH)₁₂26H₂O is one of the major hydrates formed during cement hydration. Ettringite forms in Portland cement from the reaction between tricalcium aluminate Ca₃Al₂O₆ and calcium sulfate. Ettringite is also present in calcium sulfoaluminate cement in which it is the major hydrate, formed by the reaction between yeelimite Ca₄(AlO₂)₆SO₄ and calcium sulfate. About the formation of ettringite, numerous results are available in the literature even if some issues are still under discussion. However, almost all published work about ettringite was done on cementitious systems. Yet in cement, hydration reactions are very complex, the result of dissolution-precipitation processes and are submitted to various interactions. Understanding the formation process of a phase alone, here ettringite, is the first step to later understand the much more complex reactions happening in cement. This study is crucial for the comprehension of early cement hydration and physical behavior. Indeed formation of hydrates, in particular, ettringite, will have an influence on the rheological properties of the cement paste and on the need for admixtures. To make progress toward the understanding of existing phenomena, a specific study of nucleation and growth processes of ettringite was conducted. First ettringite nucleation was studied in ionic aqueous solutions, with controlled but different experimental conditions, as different supersaturation degrees (β), different pH or presence of exogenous ions. Through induction time measurements, interfacial ettringite crystals solution energies (γ) were determined. Growth of ettringite in supersaturated solutions was also studied through chain crystallization reactions. Specific BET surface area measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy observations seemed to prove that growth process is favored over the nucleation process when ettringite crystals are initially present in a solution with a low supersaturation degree. The influence of stirring on ettringite formation was also investigated. Observation was made that intensity and nature of stirring have a high influence on the size of ettringite needles formed. Needle sizes vary from less than 10µm long depending on the stirring to almost 100µm long without any stirring. During all previously mentioned experiments, initially present ions are consumed to form ettringite in such a way that the supersaturation degree with regard to ettringite is decreasing over time. To avoid this phenomenon a device compensating the drop of ion concentrations by adding some more solutions, and therefore always have constant ionic concentrations, was used. This constant β recreates the conditions of the beginning of cement paste hydration, when the dissolution of solid reagents compensates the consumption of ions to form hydrates. This device allowed the determination of the ettringite precipitation rate as a function of the supersaturation degree β. Taking samples at different time during ettringite precipitation and doing BET measurements allowed the determination of the interfacial growth rate of ettringite in m²/s. This work will lead to a better understanding and control of ettringite formation alone and thus during cements hydration. This study will also ultimately define the impact of ettringite formation process on the rheology of cement pastes at early age, which is a crucial parameter from a practical point of view.

Keywords: cement hydration, ettringite, morphology of crystals, nucleation-growth process

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Authors: Bozena Tyliszczak, Anna Drabczyk, Sonia Kudlacik-Kramarczyk, Agnieszka Sobczak-Kupiec

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Introduction: Nanomaterials become one of the leading materials in the synthesis of various compounds. This is a reason for the fact that nano-size materials exhibit other properties compared to their macroscopic equivalents. Such a change in size is reflected in a change in optical, electric or mechanical properties. Among nanomaterials, particular attention is currently directed into gold nanoparticles. They find application in a wide range of areas including cosmetology or pharmacy. Additionally, nanogold may be a component of modern wound dressings, which antibacterial activity is beneficial in the viewpoint of the wound healing process. Specific properties of this type of nanomaterials result in the fact that they may also be applied in cancer treatment. Studies on the development of new techniques of the delivery of drugs are currently an important research subject of many scientists. This is due to the fact that along with the development of such fields of science as medicine or pharmacy, the need for better and more effective methods of administering drugs is constantly growing. The solution may be the use of drug carriers. These are materials that combine with the active substance and lead it directly to the desired place. A role of such a carrier may be played by gold nanoparticles that are able to covalently bond with many organic substances. This allows the combination of nanoparticles with active substances. Therefore gold nanoparticles are widely used in the preparation of nanocomposites that may be used for medical purposes with special emphasis on drug delivery. Methodology: As part of the presented research, synthesis of composites was carried out. The mentioned composites consisted of the polymer matrix and gold nanoparticles that were introduced into the polymer network. The synthesis was conducted with the use of a crosslinking agent, and photoinitiator and the materials were obtained by means of the photopolymerization process. Next, incubation studies were conducted using selected liquids that simulated fluids are occurring in the human body. The study allows determining the biocompatibility of the tested composites in relation to selected environments. Next, the chemical structure of the composites was characterized as well as their sorption properties. Conclusions: Conducted research allowed for the preliminary characterization of prepared polymer composites containing gold nanoparticles in the viewpoint of their application for biomedical use. Tested materials were characterized by biocompatibility in tested environments. What is more, synthesized composites exhibited relatively high swelling capacity that is essential in the viewpoint of their potential application as drug carriers. During such an application, composite swells and at the same time releases from its interior introduced active substance; therefore, it is important to check the swelling ability of such material. Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank The National Science Centre (Grant no: UMO - 2016/21/D/ST8/01697) for providing financial support to this project. This paper is based upon work from COST Action (CA18113), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: nanocomposites, gold nanoparticles, drug carriers, swelling properties

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Authors: N. C. Shahi, Anupama Singh, E. Kate

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Drying is practiced to enhance the storage life, to minimize losses during storage, and to reduce transportation costs of agricultural products. Drying processes range from open sun drying to industrial drying. In most of the developing countries, use of fossil fuels for drying of agricultural products has not been practically feasible due to unaffordable costs to majority of the farmers. On the other hand, traditional open sun drying practiced on a large scale in the rural areas of the developing countries suffers from high product losses due to inadequate drying, fungal growth, encroachment of insects, birds and rodents, etc. To overcome these problems a middle technology dryer having low cost need to be developed for farmers. In case of mechanical dryers, the heated air is the main driving force for removal of moisture. The air is heated either electrically or by burning wood, coal, natural gas etc. using heaters. But, all these common sources have finite supplies. The lifetime is estimated to range from 15 years for a natural gas to nearly 250 years for coal. So, mankind must turn towards its safe and reliable utilization and may have undesirable side effects. The mechanical drying involves higher cost of drying and open sun drying deteriorates the quality. The solar tunnel dryer is one of promising option for drying various agricultural and agro-industrial products on large scale. The advantage of Solar tunnel dryer is its relatively cheaper cost of construction and operation. Although many solar dryers have been developed, still there is a scope of modification in them. Therefore, an attempt was made to develop Solar tunnel dryer and test its performance using highly perishable commodity i.e. leafy vegetables (spinach). The effect of air velocity, loading density and shade net on performance parameters namely, collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency of dryer and specific heat energy consumption were also studied. Thus, the need for an intermediate level technology was realized and an effort was made to develop a small scale Solar Tunnel Dryer . A dryer consisted of base frame, semi cylindrical drying chamber, solar collector and absorber, air distribution system with chimney and auxiliary heating system, and wheels for its mobility were the main functional components. Drying of fenugreek was carried out to analyze the performance of the dryer. The Solar Tunnel Dryer temperature was maintained using the auxiliary heating system. The ambient temperature was in the range of 12-33oC. The relative humidity was found inside and outside the Solar Tunnel Dryer in the range of 21-75% and 35-79%, respectively. The solar radiation was recorded in the range of 350-780W/m2 during the experimental period. Studies revealed that total drying time was in range of 230 to 420 min. The drying time in Solar Tunnel Dryer was considerably reduced by 67% as compared to sun drying. The collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency and specific heat consumption were determined and were found to be in the range of 50.06- 38.71%, 15.53-24.72%, 4.25 to 13.34% and 1897.54-3241.36 kJ/kg, respectively.

Keywords: overall efficiency, solar tunnel dryer, specific heat consumption, sun drying

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Authors: Salwa Mohamed Salah Eldin, Howida Kamal Ibrahim

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Introduction: Major depressive disorder affects high proportion of the world’s population presenting cost load in health care. Extended release venlafaxine is more convenient and could reduce discontinuation syndrome. The once daily dosing also reduces the potential for adverse events such as nausea due to reduced Cmax. Venlafaxine is an effective first-line agent in the treatment of depression. A once daily formulation was designed to enhance patient compliance. Complexing with a resin was suggested to improve loading of the water soluble drug. The formulated systems were thoroughly evaluated in vitro to prove superiority to previous trials and were compared to the commercial extended release product in experimental animals. Materials and Methods: Venlafaxine-resinates were prepared using Dowex®50WX4-400 and Dowex®50WX8-100 at drug to resin weight ratio of 1: 1. The prepared resinates were evaluated for their drug content, particle shape and surface properties and in vitro release profile in gradient pH. The release kinetics and mechanism were evaluated. Venlafaxine-Dowex® resinates were encapsulated using O/W solvent evaporation technique. Poly-ε-caprolactone, Poly(D, L-lactide-co-glycolide) ester, Poly(D, L-lactide) ester and Eudragit®RS100 were used as coating polymers alone and in combination. Drug-resinate microcapsules were evaluated for morphology, entrapment efficiency and in-vitro release profile. The selected formula was tested in rabbits using a randomized, single-dose, 2-way crossover study against Effexor-XR tablets under fasting condition. Results and Discussion: The equilibrium time was 30 min for Dowex®50WX4-400 and 90 min for Dowex®50WX8-100. The percentage drug loaded was 93.96 and 83.56% for both resins, respectively. Both drug-Dowex® resintes were efficient in sustaining venlafaxine release in comparison to the free drug (up to 8h.). Dowex®50WX4-400 based venlafaxine-resinate was selected for further encapsulation to optimize the release profile for once daily dosing and to lower the burst effect. The selected formula (coated with a mixture of Eudragit RS and PLGA in a ratio of 50/50) was chosen by applying a group of mathematical equations according to targeted values. It recorded the minimum burst effect, the maximum MDT (Mean dissolution time) and a Q24h (percentage drug released after 24 hours) between 95 and 100%. The 90% confidence intervals for the test/reference mean ratio of the log-transformed data of AUC0–24 and AUC0−∞ are within (0.8–1.25), which satisfies the bioequivalence criteria. Conclusion: The optimized formula could be a promising extended release form of the water soluble, short half lived venlafaxine. Being a multiple unit formulation, it lowers the probability of dose dumping and reduces the inter-subject variability in absorption.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, cation-exchange resin, microencapsulation, venlafaxine hcl

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Authors: Gheorghe Braniste

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The management of the training process in sports is closely related to the awareness of the close connection between performance and the morphological, functional and psychological characteristics of the athlete's body. Achieving high results in Olympic sports is influenced, on the one hand, by the genetically determined characteristics of the body and, on the other hand, by the morphological, functional and motor abilities of the athlete. Taking into account the importance of properly understanding the evolutionary specificity of athletes to assess their competitive potential, this study provides a comparative analysis of the parameters that characterize the growth and development of the level of adaptation of sweeping rowers, considering the growth interval between 12 and 20 years. The study established that, in the multi-annual training process, the bodies of the targeted athletes register significant adaptive changes while analyzing parameters of the morphological, functional, psychomotor and sports-technical spheres. As a result of the influence of physical efforts, both specific and non-specific, there is an increase in the adaptability of the body, its transfer to a much higher level of functionality within the parameters, useful and economical adaptive reactions influenced by environmental factors, be they internal or external. The research was carried out for 7 years, on a group of 28 athletes, following their evolution and recording the specific parameters of each age stage. In order to determine the level of physical, morpho-functional, psychomotor development and technical training of rowers, the screening data were applied at the State University of Physical Education and Sports in the Republic of Moldova. During the research, measurements were made on the waist, in the standing and sitting position, arm span, weight, circumference and chest perimeter, vital capacity of the lungs, with the subsequent determination of the vital index (tolerance level to oxygen deficiency in venous blood in Stange and Genchi breath-taking tests that characterize the level of oxygen saturation, absolute and relative strength of the hand and back, calculation of body mass and morphological maturity indices (Kettle index), body surface area (body gait), psychomotor tests (Romberg test), test-tepping 10 s., reaction to a moving object, visual and auditory-motor reaction, recording of technical parameters of rowing on a competitive distance of 200 m. At the end of the study it was found that highly performance is sports is to be associated on the one hand with the genetically determined characteristics of the body and, on the other hand, with favorable adaptive reactions and energy saving, as well as morphofunctional changes influenced by internal and external environmental factors. The importance of the results obtained at the end of the study was positively reflected in obtaining the maximum level of training of athletes in order to demonstrate performance in large-scale competitions and mostly in the Olympic Games.

Keywords: olympics, parameters, performance, peak

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Authors: Pierre Mintom, Armel Assiene Agamou, Leslie Toukem, William Dakam, Christine Fernande Nyangono Biyegue

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Context: Hyperuricemia, the presence of high levels of uric acid in the blood, is a known precursor to the development of gout. Recent studies have suggested a strong association between hyperuricemia and disorders of lipoprotein metabolism, specifically hypercholesterolemia. Understanding the factors associated with these conditions in gout patients is essential for effective treatment and management. Research Aim: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of hyperuricemia, hypercholesterolemia, and the double burden of hyperuricemia-hypercholesterolemia in the gouty population. Additionally, the study aimed to identify the factors associated with these conditions. Methodology: The study utilized a database from a survey of 150 gouty patients recruited at the Laquintinie Hospital in Douala between August 2017 and February 2018. The database contained information on anthropometric parameters, biochemical markers, and the food and drugs consumed by the patients. Hyperuricemia and hypercholesterolemia were defined based on specific serum uric acid and total cholesterol thresholds, and the double burden was defined as the co-occurrence of hyperuricemia and hypercholesterolemia. Findings: The study found that the prevalence rates for hyperuricemia, hypercholesterolemia, and the double burden were 61.3%, 76%, and 50.7% respectively. Factors associated with these conditions included hypertriglyceridemia, atherogenicity index TC/HDL ratio, atherogenicity index LDL/HDL ratio, family history, and the consumption of specific foods and drinks. Theoretical Importance: The study highlights the strong association between hyperuricemia and dyslipidemia, providing important insights for guiding treatment strategies in gout patients. Additionally, it emphasizes the significance of nutritional education in managing these metabolic disorders, suggesting the need to address eating habits in gout patients. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data was collected through surveys and medical records of gouty patients. Information on anthropometric parameters, biochemical markers, and dietary habits was recorded. Prevalence rates and associated factors were determined through statistical analysis, employing odds ratios to assess the risks. Question Addressed: The study aimed to address the prevalence rates and associated factors of hyperuricemia, hypercholesterolemia, and the double burden in gouty patients. It sought to understand the relationships between these conditions and determine their implications for treatment and nutritional education. Conclusion: Findings show that it’s exists an association between hyperuricemia and hypercholesterolemia in gout patients, thus creating a double burden. The findings underscore the importance of considering family history and eating habits in addressing the double burden of hyperuricemia-hypercholesterolemia. This study provides valuable insights for guiding treatment approaches and emphasizes the need for nutritional education in gout patients. This study specifically focussed on the sick population. A case–control study between gouty and non-gouty populations would be interesting to better compare and explain the results observed.

Keywords: gout, hyperuricemia, hypercholesterolemia, double burden

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Authors: Imalka Wasana Rathnayaka, Rasheda Khanam, Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

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TheCOVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to both the health and economic states in countries around the world. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of governments' decisions to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 through proposing policy directions to reduce its magnitude. The study is motivated by the ongoing coronavirus outbreaks and comprehensive policy responses taken by countries to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and reduce death rates. This study contributes to filling the knowledge by exploiting the long-term efficacy of extensive plans of governments. This study employs a Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The panels incorporate both a significant number of variables and fortnightly observations from22 countries. The dependent variables adopted in this study are the fortnightly death rates and the rates of the spread of COVID-19. Mortality rate and the rate of infection data were computed based on the number of deaths and the number of new cases per 10000 people.The explanatory variables are fortnightly values of indexes taken to investigate the efficacy of government interventions to control COVID-19. Overall government response index, Stringency index, Containment and health index, and Economic support index were selected as explanatory variables. The study relies on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Measure Tracker (OxCGRT). According to the procedures of ARDL, the study employs (i) the unit root test to check stationarity, (ii) panel cointegration, and (iii) PMG and ARDL estimation techniques. The study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic forced immediate responses from policymakers across the world to mitigate the risks of COVID-19. Of the four types of government policy interventions: (i) Stringency and (ii) Economic Support have been most effective and reveal that facilitating Stringency and financial measures has resulted in a reduction in infection and fatality rates, while (iii) Government responses are positively associated with deaths but negatively with infected cases. Even though this positive relationship is unexpected to some extent in the long run, social distancing norms of the governments have been broken by the public in some countries, and population age demographics would be a possible reason for that result. (iv) Containment and healthcare improvements reduce death rates but increase the infection rates, although the effect has been lower (in absolute value). The model implies that implementation of containment health practices without association with tracing and individual-level quarantine does not work well. The policy implication based on containment health measures must be applied together with targeted, aggressive, and rapid containment to extensively reduce the number of people infected with COVID 19. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that economic support for income and debt relief has been the key to suppressing the rate of COVID-19 infections and fatality rates.

Keywords: COVID-19, infection rate, deaths rate, government response, panel data

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Authors: Kumari Sweta, Ajanta Goswami, Abhilasha Dixit

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Landslide is a geomorphic process that plays an essential role in the evolution of the hill-slope and long-term landscape evolution. But its abrupt nature and the associated catastrophic forces of the process can have undesirable socio-economic impacts, like substantial economic losses, fatalities, ecosystem, geomorphologic and infrastructure disturbances. The estimated fatality rate is approximately 1person /100 sq. Km and the average economic loss is more than 550 crores/year in the Himalayan belt due to landslides. This study presents a comparative performance of a statistical bivariate method and a machine learning technique for landslide susceptibility mapping in and around Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh. The final produced landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) with better accuracy could be used for land-use planning to prevent future losses. Dharamshala, a part of North-western Himalaya, is one of the fastest-growing tourism hubs with a total population of 30,764 according to the 2011 census and is amongst one of the hundred Indian cities to be developed as a smart city under PM’s Smart Cities Mission. A total of 209 landslide locations were identified in using high-resolution linear imaging self-scanning (LISS IV) data. The thematic maps of parameters influencing landslide occurrence were generated using remote sensing and other ancillary data in the GIS environment. The landslide causative parameters used in the study are slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, topographic wetness index, relative relief, distance from lineaments, land use land cover, and geology. LSMs were prepared using information value (Info Val), and Fuzzy Expert System (FES) models. Info Val is a statistical bivariate method, in which information values were calculated as the ratio of the landslide pixels per factor class (Si/Ni) to the total landslide pixel per parameter (S/N). Using this information values all parameters were reclassified and then summed in GIS to obtain the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) map. The FES method is a machine learning technique based on ‘mean and neighbour’ strategy for the construction of fuzzifier (input) and defuzzifier (output) membership function (MF) structure, and the FR method is used for formulating if-then rules. Two types of membership structures were utilized for membership function Bell-Gaussian (BG) and Trapezoidal-Triangular (TT). LSI for BG and TT were obtained applying membership function and if-then rules in MATLAB. The final LSMs were spatially and statistically validated. The validation results showed that in terms of accuracy, Info Val (83.4%) is better than BG (83.0%) and TT (82.6%), whereas, in terms of spatial distribution, BG is best. Hence, considering both statistical and spatial accuracy, BG is the most accurate one.

Keywords: bivariate statistical techniques, BG and TT membership structure, fuzzy expert system, information value method, machine learning technique

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Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Nathalie Gagnon, Andréanne Gagné, Julie Courcy

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Quebec's vocational education teachers experience an atypical induction process into the workplace and thus face unique challenges. In contrast to elementary and high school teachers, who must undergo initial teacher training in order to access the profession, vocational education teachers, in most cases, are hired based on their professional expertise in the trade they are teaching, without prior pedagogical training. In addition to creating significant stress, which does not foster the acquisition of teaching roles and skills, this approach also forces recruits into a particular posture during their practical training: that of juggling their dual identities as teacher and trainee simultaneously. Recruits are supported by Cooperating Teachers (CPs) who, as experienced educators, take a critical and constructive look at their practices, observe them in the classroom, give them constructive feedback, and encourage them in their reflective practice. Thus, the vocational setting CP also assumes a distinctive posture and role due to the characteristics of the trainees they support. Although it is recognized that preparation, training, and supervision of CPs are essential factors in improving the support provided to trainees, there is little research about how CPs develop their support skills, and very little research focuses on the distinct posture they occupy. However, in order for them to be properly equipped for the important role they play in recruits’ practical training, it is vital to know more about their experience. An individual’s competencies cannot be studied without first examining what characterizes their experience, how they experience any given situation on cognitive, emotional, and motivational levels, in addition to how they act and react in situ. Depending on its nature, the experience will or will not promote the development of a specific competency. The research from which this communication originates focuses on describing the overall experience of vocational education CP in an effort to better understand the mechanisms linked to the development of their mentoring competencies. Experience and competence were, therefore, the two main theoretical concepts leading the research. As per methodology choices, case study methods were used since it proves to be adequate to describe in a rich and detailed way contemporary phenomena within contexts of life. The set of data used was collected from semi-structured interviews conducted with 15 vocational education CP in Quebec (Canada), followed by the use of a data-driven semi-inductive analysis approach to let the categories emerge organically. Focusing on the development needs of vocational education CP to improve their mentoring skills, this paper presents the results of our research, namely the importance of adequate training, better support offered by university supervisors, greater recognition of their role, and specific time slots dedicated to trainee support. The knowledge resulting from this research could improve the quality of support for trainee teachers in vocational education settings and to a more successful induction into the workplace. This communication also presents recommendations regarding the development of training systems that meet the specific needs of vocational education CP.

Keywords: development of competencies, cooperating teacher, mentoring trainee teacher, practical training, vocational education

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Authors: Cyril O. Ehi-Eromosele, Ajayi Kayode

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The Li-rich layered metal oxides (LLO) are the most promising candidates for promising electrodes of high energy Li-ion battery (LIB). In literature, these electrode system has either been designed as a hetero-structure of the primary components (composite) or as a core-shell structure with improved electrochemistry reported for both configurations when compared with its primary components. With the on-going efforts to improve on the electrochemical performance of the LIB, it is important to investigate comparatively the structural and electrochemical characteristics of the core-shell like and ‘composite’ forms of these materials with the same compositions and synthesis conditions which could influence future engineering of these materials. Therefore, this study concerns the structural and electrochemical properties of the ‘composite’ and core-shell like LLO cathode materials with the same nominal composition of 0.5Li₂MnO₃-0.5LiNi₀.₅Mn₀.₃Co₀.₂O₂ (LiNi₀.₅Mn₀.₃Co₀.₂O₂ as core and Li₂MnO₃ as the shell). The results show that the core-shell sample (–CS) gave better electrochemical performance than the ‘composite’ sample (–C). Both samples gave the same initial charge capacity of ~300 mAh/g when cycled at 10 mA/g and comparable charge capacity (246 mAh/g for the –CS sample and 240 mAh/g for the –C sample) when cycled at 200 mA/g. However, the –CS sample gave a higher initial discharge capacity at both current densities. The discharge capacity of the –CS sample was 232 mAh/g and 164 mAh/g while the –C sample is 208 mAh/g and 143 mAh/g at the current densities of 10 mA/g and 200 mA/g, respectively. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) results show that the –CS sample generally exhibited a smaller resistance than the –C sample both for the uncycled and after 50th cycle. Detailed structural analysis is on-going, but preliminary results show that the –CS sample had bigger unit cell volume and a higher degree of cation mixing. The thermal stability of the –CS sample was higher than the –C sample. XPS investigation also showed that the pristine –C sample gave a more reactive surface (showing formation of carbonate species to a greater degree) which could result in the greater resistance seen in the EIS result. To reinforce the results obtained for the 0.5Li₂MnO₃-0.5LiNi₀.₅Mn₀.₃Co₀.₃O₂ composition, the same investigations were extended to another ‘composite’ and core-shell like LLO cathode materials also with the same nominal composition of 0.5Li₂MnO₃-0.5LiNi₀.₃Mn₀.₃Co₀.₃O₂. In this case, the aim was to determine the electrochemical performance of the material using a low Ni content (LiNi₀.₃Mn₀.₃Co₀.₃O₂) as the core to clarify the contributions of the core-shell configuration to the electrochemical performance of these materials. Ni-rich layered oxides show active catalytic surface leading to electrolyte oxidation resulting in poor thermal stability and cycle life. Here, the core-shell sample also gave better electrochemical performance than the ‘composite’ sample with 0.5Li₂MnO₃-0.5LiNi₀.₃Mn₀.₃Co₀.₃O₂ composition. Furthermore, superior electrochemical performance was also recorded for the core-shell like spinel modified LLO (0.5Li₂MnO₃-0.45LiNi₀.₅Mn₀.₃Co₀.₂O₂-0.05LiNi₀.₅Mn₁.₅O₄) when compared to the composite system. These results show that the core-shell configuration can generally be used to improve the structural and electrochemical properties of the LLO and spinel modified LLO materials.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, lithium rich oxide cathode, core-shell structure, composite structure

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Authors: Neelam Taneja, Abhishek Mewara, Ajay Kumar

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Multidrug resistant shigellae have emerged as a therapeutic challenge in India. At our 2000 bed tertiary care referral centre in Chandigarh, North India, which caters to a large population of 7 neighboring states, antibiotic resistance in Shigella is being constantly monitored. Shigellae are isolated from 3 to 5% of all stool samples. In 1990 nalidixic acid was the drug of choice as 82%, and 63% of shigellae were resistant to ampicillin and cotrimoxazole respectively. Nalidixic acid resistance emerged in 1992 and rapidly increased from 6% during 1994-98 to 86% by the turn of 21st century. In the 1990s, the WHO recommended ciprofloxacin as the drug of choice for empiric treatment of shigellosis in view of the existing high level resistance to agents like chloramphenicol, ampicillin, cotrimoxazole and nalidixic acid. First resistance to ciprofloxacin in S. flexneri at our centre appeared in 2000 and rapidly rose to 46% in 2007 (MIC>4mg/L). In between we had an outbreak of ciprofloxacin resistant S.dysenteriae serotype 1 in 2003. Therapeutic failures with ciprofloxacin occurred with both ciprofloxacin-resistant S. dysenteriae and ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri. The severity of illness was more with ciprofloxacin-resistant strains. Till 2000, elsewhere in the world ciprofloxacin resistance in S. flexneri was sporadic and uncommon, though resistance to co-trimoxazole and ampicillin was common and in some areas resistance to nalidixic acid had also emerged. Fluoroquinolones due to extensive use and misuse for many other illnesses in our region are thus no longer the preferred group of drugs for managing shigellosis in India. WHO presently recommends ceftriaxone and azithromycin as alternative drugs to fluoroquinolone-resistant shigellae, however, overreliance on this group of drugs also seems to soon become questionable considering the emerging cephalosporin-resistant shigellae. We found 15.1% of S. flexneri isolates collected over a period of 9 years (2000-2009) resistant to at least one of the third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone/cefotaxime). The first isolate showing ceftriaxone resistance was obtained in 2001, and we have observed an increase in number of isolates resistant to third generation cephalosporins in S. flexneri 2005 onwards. This situation has now become a therapeutic challenge in our region. The MIC values for Shigella isolates revealed a worrisome rise for ceftriaxone (MIC90:12 mg/L) and cefepime (MIC90:8 mg/L). MIC values for S. dysenteriae remained below 1 mg/L for ceftriaxone, however for cefepime, the MIC90 has raised to 4 mg/L. These infections caused by ceftriaxone-resistant S. flexneri isolates were successfully treated by azithromycin at our center. Most worrisome development in the present has been the emergence of DSA(Decreased susceptibility to azithromycin) which surfaced in 2001 and has increased from 4.3% till 2011 to 34% thereafter. We suspect plasmid-mediated resistance as we detected qnrS1-positive Shigella for the first time from the Indian subcontinent in 2 strains from 2010, indicating a relatively new appearance of this PMQR determinant among Shigella in India. This calls for a continuous and strong surveillance of antibiotic resistance across the country. The prevention of shigellosis by developing cost-effective vaccines is desirable as it will substantially reduce the morbidity associated with diarrhoea in the country

Keywords: Shigella, antimicrobial, resistance, India

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Authors: Meenu S. Babu, K. Jayasankara Reddy

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Depression is a serious mental health concern that leads to significant distress and dysfunction in an individual. Due to the high physical, psychological, social, and economic burden it causes, it is important to study various bio-psycho-social factors that influence the onset, course, duration, intensity of depressive symptoms. The study aims to explore relationship between autobiographical memory (AM) functions, perceived control over stressful events and depressive symptoms. AM functions and perceived control were both found to be protective factors for individuals against depression and were both modifiable to predict better behavioral and affective outcomes. An extensive review of literatur, with a systematic search on Google Scholar, JSTOR, Science Direct and Springer Journals database, was conducted for the purpose of this review paper. These were used for all the aforementioned databases. The time frame used for the search was 2010-2021. An additional search was conducted with no time bar to map the development of the theoretical concepts. The relevant studies with quantitative, qualitative, experimental, and quasi- experimental research designs were included for the review. Studies including a sample with a DSM- 5 or ICD-10 diagnosis of depressive disorders were excluded from the study to focus on the behavioral patterns in a non-clinical population. The synthesis of the findings that were obtained from the review indicates there is a significant relationship between cognitive variables of AM functions and perceived control and depressive symptoms. AM functions were found to be have significant effects on once sense of self, interpersonal relationships, decision making, self- continuity and were related to better emotion regulation and lower depressive symptoms. Not all the components of AM function were equally significant in their relationships with various depressive symptoms. While self and directive functions were more related to emotion regulation, anhedonia, motivation and hence mood and affect, the social function was related to perceived social support and social engagement. Perceived control was found to be another protective cognitive factor that provides individuals a sense of agency and control over one’s life outcomes which was found to be low in individuals with depression. This was also associated to the locus of control, competency beliefs, contingency beliefs and subjective well being in individuals and acted as protective factors against depressive symptoms. AM and perceived control over stressful events serve adaptive functions, hence it is imperative to study these variables more extensively. They can be imperative in planning and implementing therapeutic interventions to foster these cognitive protective factors to mitigate or alleviate depressive symptoms. Exploring AM as a determining factor in depressive symptoms along with perceived control over stress creates a bridge between biological and cognitive factors underlying depression and increases the scope of developing a more eclectic and effective treatment plan for individuals. As culture plays a crucial role in AM functions as well as certain aspects of control such as locus of control, it is necessary to study these variables keeping in mind the cultural context to tailor culture/community specific interventions for depression.

Keywords: autobiographical memories, autobiographical memory functions, perceived control, depressive symptoms, depression, young adults

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Authors: Zainab Olabisi Tairu

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The human species is facing some of the most challenging issues encountered as civilization and development occurs. The most salient factors threatening all species globally are habitats loss and degradation, overexploitation, competition with unwanted invasive species, pollution, global climate and various individual lifestyles of indigenous species. In order to avoid or minimize the effect of our actions on the environment and to balance employee work life with their private life, Green Human Resource is important and must be practiced in every organization including Higher Learning Institutions. This study addressed Green HRM from an institutional perspective, University systems are involved in numerous and complex social, educational and extra-curricular activities. The University community must be challenged to rethink and re-construct their environmental policies and practices in order to contribute to sustainable development. Many institutions only look at sustainability from the technology improvement aspect and waste management. People are the principal actors for sustainability development at the institutional level. The aim of the study is to explore the concept of Green Human Resource Management at a case site. Divine Word University (DWU) an Institution of Higher Education that embraced the ‘Printing & Paper use Policy’, also commonly referred to as the ‘paperless policy’, the use of solar as an alternative source of energy, water conservation and improvement in internet technology (IT) with the aim of becoming a green institution in effort to help save the environment. This study used Participatory Action Research as the Overarching methodological framework and Egg of sustainability and Wellbeing as the theoretical perspective in analyzing the data, engaging Case study strategy and a mixed method design at DWU. Focus group interview were conducted with three departments at the University, semi-structure interviews with the senior managers, survey questionnaire administered to students and staff with a sample size of 176 participants, in addition, policy documents were also exploited as extra source of data. Waste management including e-waste appeared to be one of the main concerns at DWU. A vast majority of DWU staff and students expressed the need for their institution to do more on sustainability education. The findings revealed that members of the community are not fully integrated like the Egg of sustainability and wellbeing in order to achieve sustainable development goal. The concept of Green Human Resource Management in Universities lies with the idea that Universities must bear profound responsibilities to manage its stakeholders in an environmental friendly way. Human resource management can help local institutions to recognize the need for changes of lifestyle, production, consumption as well as the end product in order to combat or at least reduce human Induced which produce or aggravate it.

Keywords: sustainability, environmental management, higher education institutions, green human resource management

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Authors: Monisha Elumalai, Joana Guerreiro, Joana Carvalho, Marta Prado

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DNA biosensors popularity has been increasing over the past few years. Traditional analytical techniques tend to require complex steps and expensive equipment however DNA biosensors have the advantage of getting simple, fast and economic. Additionally, the combination of DNA biosensors with nanomaterials offers the opportunity to improve the selectivity, sensitivity and the overall performance of the devices. DNA biosensors are based on oligonucleotides as sensing elements. These oligonucleotides are highly specific to complementary DNA sequences resulting in the hybridization of the strands. DNA biosensors are not only an advantage in the clinical field but also applicable in numerous research areas such as food analysis or environmental control. Zebra Mussels (ZM), Dreissena polymorpha are invasive species responsible for enormous negative impacts on the environment and ecosystems. Generally, the detection of ZM is made when the observation of adult or macroscopic larvae's is made however at this stage is too late to avoid the harmful effects. Therefore, there is a need to develop an analytical tool for the early detection of ZM. Here, we present a portable plasmonic biosensor for the detection of environmental DNA (eDNA) released to the environment from this invasive species. The plasmonic DNA biosensor combines gold nanoparticles, as transducer elements, due to their great optical properties and high sensitivity. The detection strategy is based on the immobilization of a short base pair DNA sequence on the nanoparticles surface followed by specific hybridization in the presence of a complementary target DNA. The hybridization events are tracked by the optical response provided by the nanospheres and their surrounding environment. The identification of the DNA sequences (synthetic target and probes) to detect Zebra mussel were designed by using Geneious software in order to maximize the specificity. Moreover, to increase the optical response enzyme amplification of DNA might be used. The gold nanospheres were synthesized and characterized by UV-visible spectrophotometry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The obtained nanospheres present the maximum localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) peak position are found to be around 519 nm and a diameter of 17nm. The DNA probes modified with a sulfur group at one end of the sequence were then loaded on the gold nanospheres at different ionic strengths and DNA probe concentrations. The optimal DNA probe loading will be selected based on the stability of the optical signal followed by the hybridization study. Hybridization process leads to either nanoparticle dispersion or aggregation based on the presence or absence of the target DNA. Finally, this detection system will be integrated into an optical sensing platform. Considering that the developed device will be used in the field, it should fulfill the inexpensive and portability requirements. The sensing devices based on specific DNA detection holds great potential and can be exploited for sensing applications in-loco.

Keywords: ZM DNA, DNA probes, nicking enzyme, gold nanoparticles

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Lauren Dhugga, Meena Parameswaran, David Blundell, Abbas Khushnood

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Context: A multidisciplinary weekly safety briefing was implemented at the Paediatric Cardiothoracic Unit at the Freeman Hospital in Newcastle-upon-Tyne. It is a tertiary referral centre with a quarternary cardiac paediatric intensive care unit and provides complexed care including heart and lung transplants, mechanical support and advanced heart failure assessment. Aim: The aim of this briefing is to provide a structured platform of communication, in an effort to improve efficiency, safety, and patient care. Problem: The paediatric cardiothoracic unit is made up of a vast multidisciplinary team including doctors, intensivists, anaesthetists, surgeons, specialist nurses, echocardiogram technicians, physiotherapists, psychologists, dentists, and dietitians. It provides care for children with congenital and acquired cardiac disease and is one of only two units in the UK to offer paediatric heart transplant. The complexity of cases means that there can be many teams involved in providing care to each patient, and frequent movement of children between ward, high dependency, and intensive care areas. Currently, there is no structured forum for communicating important information across the department, for example, staffing shortages, prescribing errors and significant events. Strategy: An initial survey questioning the need for better communication found 90% of respondents agreed that they could think of an incident that had occurred due to ineffective communication, and 85% felt that incident could have been avoided had there been a better form of communication. Lastly, 80% of respondents felt that a weekly 60 second safety briefing would be beneficial to improve communication within our multidisciplinary team. Based on those promising results, a weekly 60 second safety briefing was implemented to be conducted on a Monday morning. The safety briefing covered four key areas (SAFE): staffing, awareness, fix and events. This was to highlight any staffing gaps, any incident reports to be learned from, any issues that required fixing and any events including teachings for the week ahead. The teams were encouraged to email suggestions or issues to be raised for the week or to approach in person with information to add. The safety briefing was implemented using change theory. Effect: The safety briefing has been trialled over 6 weeks and has received a good buy in from staff across specialties. The aim is to embed this safety briefing into a weekly meeting using the PDSA cycle. There will be a second survey in one month to assess the efficacy of the safety briefing and to continue to improve the delivery of information. The project will be presented at the next clinical governance briefing to attract wider feedback and input from across the trust. Lessons: The briefing displays promise as a tool to improve vigilance and communication in a busy multi-disciplinary unit. We have learned about how to implement quality improvement and about the culture of our hospital - how hierarchy influences change. We demonstrate how to implement change through a grassroots process, using a junior led briefing to improve the efficiency, safety, and communication in the workplace.

Keywords: briefing, communication, safety, team

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Authors: Rida Wanbha Nongbri, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2016-2030 were adopted in response to Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which focused on access to sustainable water and sanitations. For over a decade, water has been a significant subject that is explored in various facets of life. Our day-to-day life is significantly impacted by water poverty at the socio-economic level. Reducing water poverty is an important policy challenge, particularly in emerging economies like India, owing to its population growth, huge variation in topology and climatic factors. To design appropriate water policies and its effectiveness, a proper measurement of water poverty is essential. In this backdrop, this study uses the Alkire Foster (AF) methodology to estimate a multidimensional water poverty index for India at the household level. The methodology captures several attributes to understand the complex issues related to households’ water deprivation. The study employs two rounds of Indian Human Development Survey data (IHDS 2005 and 2012) which focuses on 4 dimensions of water poverty including water access, water quantity, water quality, and water capacity, and seven indicators capturing these four dimensions. In order to quantify water deprivation at the household level, an AF dual cut-off counting method is applied and Multidimensional Water Poverty Index (MWPI) is calculated as the product of Headcount Ratio (Incidence) and average share of weighted dimension (Intensity). The results identify deprivation across all dimensions at the country level and show that a large proportion of household in India is deprived of quality water and suffers from water access in both 2005 and 2012 survey rounds. The comparison between the rural and urban households shows that higher ratio of the rural households are multidimensionally water poor as compared to their urban counterparts. Among the four dimensions of water poverty, water quality is found to be the most significant one for both rural and urban households. In 2005 round, almost 99.3% of households are water poor for at least one of the four dimensions, and among the water poor households, the intensity of water poverty is 54.7%. These values do not change significantly in 2012 round, but we could observe significance differences across the dimensions. States like Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are ranked the most in terms of MWPI, whereas Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Chandigarh are ranked the lowest in 2005 round. Similarly, in 2012 round, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa rank the highest in terms of MWPI, whereas Goa, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh rank the lowest. The policy implications of this study can be multifaceted. It can urge the policy makers to focus either on the impoverished households with lower intensity levels of water poverty to minimize total number of water poor households or can focus on those household with high intensity of water poverty to achieve an overall reduction in MWPI.

Keywords: .alkire-foster (AF) methodology, deprivation, dual cut-off, multidimensional water poverty index (MWPI)

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Authors: Anjali Singh, Ashwani Raju, Vandana Devi, Mohmad Mohsin Atique, Satyendra Singh, Munendra Singh

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India is the biggest consumer of mercury and, consequently, a major emitter too. The increasing mercury contamination in India’s water resources has gained widespread attention and, therefore, atmospheric deposition is of critical concern. However, little emphasis was placed on the role of precipitation in the aquatic mercury cycle of the Ganga Alluvial Plain which provides drinking water to nearly 7% of the world’s human population. A majority of the precipitation here occurs primarily in 10% duration of the year in the monsoon season. To evaluate the sources and transportation of mercury, water sample analysis has been conducted from two selected sites near Lucknow, which have a strong hydraulic gradient towards the river. 31 groundwater samples from Jehta village (26°55’15’’N; 80°50’21’’E; 119 m above mean sea level) and 31 river water samples from the Behta Nadi (a tributary of the Gomati River draining into the Ganga River) were collected during the monsoon season on every alternate day between 01 July to 30 August 2019. The total mercury analysis was performed by using Flow Injection Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS)-Mercury Hybride System, and daily rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department, Amausi, Lucknow. The ambient groundwater and river-water concentrations were both 2-4 ng/L as there is no known geogenic source of mercury found in the area. Before the onset of the monsoon season, the groundwater and the river-water recorded mercury concentrations two orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations, indicating the regional transportation of the mercury from the non-point source into the aquatic environment. Maximum mercury concentrations in groundwater and river-water were three orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations after the onset of the monsoon season characterizing the considerable mobilization and redistribution of mercury by monsoonal precipitation. About 50% of both of the water samples were reported mercury below the detection limit, which can be mostly linked to the low intensity of precipitation in August and also with the dilution factor by precipitation. The highest concentration ( > 1200 ng/L) of mercury in groundwater was reported after 6-days lag from the first precipitation peak. Two high concentration peaks (>1000 ng/L) in river-water were separately correlated with the surface flow and groundwater outflow of mercury. We attribute the elevated mercury concentration in both of the water samples before the precipitation event to mercury originating from the extensive use of agrochemicals in mango farming in the plain. However, the elevated mercury concentration during the onset of monsoon appears to increase in area wetted with atmospherically deposited mercury, which migrated down from surface water to groundwater as downslope migration is a fundamental mechanism seen in rivers of the alluvial plain. The present study underscores the significance of monsoonal precipitation in the transportation of mercury to drinking water resources of the Ganga Alluvial Plain. This study also suggests that future research must be pursued for a better understand of the human health impact of mercury contamination and for quantification of the role of Ganga Alluvial Plain in the Global Mercury Cycle.

Keywords: drinking water resources, Ganga alluvial plain, india, mercury

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Authors: Brayden Mi

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Reverse time migration has been widely used in the Petroleum exploration industry to reveal subsurface images and to detect rock and fluid properties since the early 1980s. The seismic technology involves the construction of a velocity model through interpretive model construction, seismic tomography, or full waveform inversion, and the application of the reverse-time propagation of acquired seismic data and the original wavelet used in the acquisition. The methodology has matured from 2D, simple media to present-day to handle full 3D imaging challenges in extremely complex geological conditions. Conventional Ultrasound computed tomography (USCT) utilize travel-time-inversion to reconstruct the velocity structure of an organ. With the velocity structure, USCT data can be migrated with the “bend-ray” method, also known as migration. Its seismic application counterpart is called Kirchhoff depth migration, in which the source of reflective energy is traced by ray-tracing and summed to produce a subsurface image. It is well known that ray-tracing-based migration has severe limitations in strongly heterogeneous media and irregular acquisition geometries. Reverse time migration (RTM), on the other hand, fully accounts for the wave phenomena, including multiple arrives and turning rays due to complex velocity structure. It has the capability to fully reconstruct the image detectable in its acquisition aperture. The RTM algorithms typically require a rather accurate velocity model and demand high computing powers, and may not be applicable to real-time imaging as normally required in day-to-day medical operations. However, with the improvement of computing technology, such a computational bottleneck may not present a challenge in the near future. The present-day (RTM) algorithms are typically implemented from a flat datum for the seismic industry. It can be modified to accommodate any acquisition geometry and aperture, as long as sufficient illumination is provided. Such flexibility of RTM can be conveniently implemented for the application in USCT imaging if the spatial coordinates of the transmitters and receivers are known and enough data is collected to provide full illumination. This paper proposes an implementation of a full 3D RTM algorithm for USCT imaging to produce an accurate 3D acoustic image based on the Phase-shift-plus-interpolation (PSPI) method for wavefield extrapolation. In this method, each acquired data set (shot) is propagated back in time, and a known ultrasound wavelet is propagated forward in time, with PSPI wavefield extrapolation and a piece-wise constant velocity model of the organ (breast). The imaging condition is then applied to produce a partial image. Although each image is subject to the limitation of its own illumination aperture, the stack of multiple partial images will produce a full image of the organ, with a much-reduced noise level if compared with individual partial images.

Keywords: illumination, reverse time migration (RTM), ultrasound computed tomography (USCT), wavefield extrapolation

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Authors: Shagufta Jabeen, Faez Jesse Firdaus Abdullah, Zunita Zakaria, Nurulfiza Mat Isa, Yung Chie Tan, Wai Yan Yee, Abdul Rahman Omar

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Pasteurella multocida is associated with acute, as well as, chronic infections in avian and bovine such as pasteurellosis and hemorrhagic septicemia (HS) in cattle and buffaloes. Iron is one of the most important nutrients for pathogenic bacteria including Pasteurella and acts as a cofactor or prosthetic group in several essential enzymes and is needed for amino acid, pyrimidine, and DNA biosynthesis. In our recent study, we showed that 2% of Pasteurella multocida serotype A strain PMTB2.1 encode for iron regulating genes (Accession number CP007205.1). Genome sequencing of other Pasteurella multocida serotypes namely PM70 and HB01 also indicated up to 2.5% of the respective genome encode for iron regulating genes, suggesting that Pasteurella multocida genome comprises of multiple systems for iron uptake. Since P. multocida PMTB2.1 has more than 40 CDs out of 2097 CDs (approximately 2%), encode for iron-regulated. The gene expression profiling of four iron-regulating genes namely fbpb, yfea, fece and fur were characterized under iron-restricted environment. The P. multocida strain PMTB2.1 was grown in broth with and without iron chelating agent and samples were collected at different time points. Relative mRNA expression profile of these genes was determined using Taqman probe based real-time PCR assay. The data analysis, normalization with two house-keeping genes and the quantification of fold changes were carried out using Bio-Rad CFX manager software version 3.1. Results of this study reflect that iron reduced environment has significant effect on expression profile of iron regulating genes (p < 0.05) when compared to control (normal broth) and all evaluated genes act differently with response to iron reduction in media. The highest relative fold change of fece gene was observed at early stage of treatment indicating that PMTB2.1 may utilize its periplasmic protein at early stage to acquire iron. Furthermore, down-regulation expression of fece with the elevated expression of other genes at later time points suggests that PMTB2.1 control their iron requirements in response to iron availability by down-regulating the expression of iron proteins. Moreover, significantly high relative fold change (p ≤ 0.05) of fbpb gene is probably associated with the ability of P. multocida to directly use host iron complex such as hem, hemoglobin. In addition, the significant increase (p ≤ 0.05) in fbpb and yfea expressions also reflects the utilization of multiple iron systems in P. multocida strain PMTB2.1. The findings of this study are very much important as relative scarcity of free iron within hosts creates a major barrier to microbial growth inside host and utilization of outer-membrane proteins system in iron acquisition probably occurred at early stage of infection with P. multocida. In conclusion, the presence and utilization of multiple iron system in P. multocida strain PMTB2.1 revealed the importance of iron in the survival of P. multocida.

Keywords: iron-related genes, real-time PCR, gene expression profiling, fold changes

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Authors: Stanislavs Gendelis, Maris Sinka, Andris Jakovics

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Insulation materials made from natural sources have become more popular for the ecologisation of buildings, meaning wide use of such renewable materials. Such natural materials replace synthetic products which consume a large quantity of energy. The most common and the cheapest natural materials in Latvia are cellulose-based (wood and agricultural plants). The ecological aspects of such materials are well known, but experimental data about physical properties remains lacking. In this study, six different samples of wood wool panels and a mixture of hemp shives and lime (hempcrete) are analysed. Thermal conductivity and heat capacity measurements were carried out for wood wool and cement panels using the calibrated hot plate device. Water vapor permeability was tested for hempcrete material by using the gravimetric dry cup method. Studied wood wool panels are eco-friendly and harmless material, which is widely used in the interior design of public and residential buildings, where noise absorption and sound insulation is of importance. They are also suitable for high humidity facilities (e.g., swimming pools). The difference in panels was the width of used wood wool, which is linked to their density. The results of measured thermal conductivity are in a wide range, showing the worsening of properties with the increasing of the wool width (for the least dense 0.066, for the densest 0.091 W/(m·K)). Comparison with mineral insulation materials shows that thermal conductivity for such materials are 2-3 times higher and are comparable to plywood and fibreboard. Measured heat capacity was in a narrower range; here, the dependence on the wool width was not so strong due to the fact that heat capacity value is related to mass, not volume. The resulting heat capacity is a combination of two main components. A comparison of results for different panels allows to select the most suitable sample for a specific application because the dependencies of the thermal insulation and heat capacity properties on the wool width are not the same. Hempcrete is a much denser material compared to conventional thermal insulating materials. Therefore, its use helps to reinforce the structural capacity of the constructional framework, at the same time, it is lightweight. By altering the proportions of the ingredients, hempcrete can be produced as a structural, thermal, or moisture absorbent component. The water absorption and water vapor permeability are the most important properties of these materials. Information about absorption can be found in the literature, but there are no data about water vapor transmission properties. Water vapor permeability was tested for a sample of locally made hempcrete using different air humidity values to evaluate the possible difference. The results show only the slight influence of the air humidity on the water vapor permeability value. The absolute ‘sd value’ measured is similar to mineral wool and wood fiberboard, meaning that due to very low resistance, water vapor passes easily through the material. At the same time, other properties – structural and thermal of the hempcrete is totally different. As a result, an experimentally-based knowledge of thermal and water vapor transmission properties for cellulose-based materials was significantly improved.

Keywords: heat capacity, hemp concrete, thermal conductivity, water vapor transmission, wood wool

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Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

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Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

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Authors: Geremew Geidare Kailo, Igor Gáspár, András Koris, Ivana Pajčin, Flóra Vitális, Vanja Vlajkov

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Three-dimension (3D) printing, a very popular additive manufacturing technology, has recently undergone rapid growth and replaced the use of conventional technology from prototyping to producing end-user parts and products. The 3D Printing technology involves a digital manufacturing machine that produces three-dimensional objects according to designs created by the user via 3D modeling or computer-aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software. The most popular 3D printing system is Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) or also called Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF). A 3D-printed object is considered food safe if it can have direct contact with the food without any toxic effects, even after cleaning, storing, and reusing the object. This work analyzes the processing timeline of the filament (material for 3D printing) from unboxing to the extrusion through the nozzle. It is an important task to analyze the growth of bacteria on the 3D printed surface and in gaps between the layers. By default, the 3D-printed object is not food safe after longer usage and direct contact with food (even though they use food-safe filaments), but there are solutions for this problem. The aim of this work was to evaluate the 3D-printed object from different perspectives of food safety. Firstly, testing antimicrobial 3D printing filaments from a food safety aspect since the 3D Printed object in the food industry may have direct contact with the food. Therefore, the main purpose of the work is to reduce the microbial load on the surface of a 3D-printed part. Coating with epoxy resin was investigated, too, to see its effect on mechanical strength, thermal resistance, surface smoothness and food safety (cleanability). Another aim of this study was to test new temperature-resistant filaments and the effect of high temperature on 3D printed materials to see if they can be cleaned with boiling or similar hi-temp treatment. This work proved that all three mentioned methods could improve the food safety of the 3D printed object, but the size of this effect variates. The best result we got was with coating with epoxy resin, and the object was cleanable like any other injection molded plastic object with a smooth surface. Very good results we got by boiling the objects, and it is good to see that nowadays, more and more special filaments have a food-safe certificate and can withstand boiling temperatures too. Using antibacterial filaments reduced bacterial colonies to 1/5, but the biggest advantage of this method is that it doesn’t require any post-processing. The object is ready out of the 3D printer. Acknowledgements: The research was supported by the Hungarian and Serbian bilateral scientific and technological cooperation project funded by the Hungarian National Office for Research, Development and Innovation (NKFI, 2019-2.1.11-TÉT-2020-00249) and the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. The authors acknowledge the Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences’s Doctoral School of Food Science for the support in this study

Keywords: food safety, 3D printing, filaments, microbial, temperature

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Authors: S. M. Islam, Wasi Uddin, Nazmun Nahar

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Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, faces two contrasting problems; excess of water during monsoon season and scarcity of water during dry season. The first problem occurs due to rapid urbanization and mismanagement of rainwater whereas the second problem is related to climate change and increasing urban population. Inadequate drainage system also worsens the overall water management scenario in Dhaka city. Dhaka has a population density of 115,000 people per square miles. This results in a 2.5 billion liter water demand every day, 87% of which is fulfilled by groundwater. Over dependency on groundwater has resulted in more than 200 feet drop in the last 50 years and continues to decline at a rate of 9 feet per year. Considering the gravity of the problem, it is high time that practitioners, academicians and policymakers consider different water management practices and look into their cumulative impacts at different scales. The present study assesses different rainwater management options for North South University of Bangladesh and recommends the most feasible and sustainable rainwater management measure. North South University currently accommodates over 20,000 students, faculty members, and administrative staffs. To fulfill the water demand, there are two deep tube wells, which bring up approximately 150,000 liter of water every hour. The annual water demand is approximately 103 million liters. Dhaka receives approximately 1800 mm of rainfall every year. For the current study, two academic buildings and one administrative building consist of 4924 square meters of rooftop area was selected as catchment area. Both rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge options were analyzed separately. It was estimated that by rainwater harvesting, annually a total of 7.2 million liters of water can be reused which is approximately 7% of the total annual water usage. In the monsoon, rainwater harvesting fulfills 12.2% of the monthly water demand. The approximate cost of the rainwater harvesting system is estimated to be 940975 bdt (USD 11500). For direct groundwater recharge, a system comprises of one de-siltation tank, two recharge tanks and one siltation tank were designed that requires approximately 532788 bdt (USD 6500). The payback period is approximately 7 years and 4 months for the groundwater recharge system whereas the payback period for rainwater harvesting option is approximately 12 years and 4 months. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, the present study finds the groundwater recharge system to be most suitable for North South University. The present study also demonstrates that if only one institution like North South University can add up a substantial amount of water to the aquifer, bringing other institutions in the network has the potential to create significant cumulative impact on replenishing the declining groundwater level of Dhaka city. As an additional benefit, it also prevents large amount of water being discharged into the storm sewers which results in severe flooding in Dhaka city during monsoon.

Keywords: Dhaka, groundwater, harvesting, rainwater, recharge

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Authors: Magda Mahmoud Amin Sabbour, El-Sayed H. Shaurub

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The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), of stored grain pests which destroy the seed completely. Their larval stages feed on the nutrient germinating kernels part found in the seeds grain. This leads to a reduction causing a badness to seed germination and seed viability. It controlled by many insecticides which pollute and cusses a harmful diseases to human being. Three tested oils were evaluated on this target pests. Plant extracts, essential oils and medical oils are materials which used to control many stored pests. Plant oils extracts have a lower effects on parasites and predators and not pollute the medium. By using the apparatus gas chromatography flame ionization detector gas chromatography–analysis of three essential oil tested. This research was point to explore and appreciation the activity of three oils and nano gel Beauvericin against P. interpunctella in the laboratory conditions and in the store conditions. The three essential oil tested proved that, percentage of α-Pinene recoded 7.76, 7.72 and 6.66 for C. cyminum, A. squamosal and G. officinale respectively. The composition of the β-Pinene recoded 4.61, 8.92 and 30.63 for the corresponding oils tested. Results showed that after analytically the oils tested, the effective compound of C. cyminum oil are p-cyinene and Terpinene. Results obtained show that the LC50 recorded 125, 112, 55 and 20 ppm after P. interpunctella treated with medical oils of Guaiacum officinale, Annona squamosa, Cuminum cyminum and Beauvericin 3% respectively. The accumulative mortality of P. interpunctella after treated with A.squamosa oil-loaded nanogels which showed that it is the highest oils from infestations recoded when the seed treated with 3% after 48 days, the accumulations obtained 44% at followed by 24 after24 days of storage. Results, cleared that the seed protection by G. officinale recorded 40% at concentrations of 3% after 48 days of storage seeds. C. cyminum was the highest mortality by 98, at concentrations 3%. The highest seed protection proved after C. cyminum oil-loaded nanogels 14% followed by G. officinale 29% and A.squamosa 44%.when the seeds treated with Beauvericin 3%. Results of this work cleared that the essential medical oils have a useful action effect on target insects. Plant essential and medical oils, their active ingredient have potentially high bioactivity against on P. interpunctella. The medical and essential oils incorporation and usage the nano-formulation release stopped the highly degradation vaporization and the increasing in the constancy, and save the lower effectiveness of the dosage/application. The research results proved that the highest seed protection obtained after C. cyminum oil-loaded nanogels followed by G. officinale and A.squamosa. It could be complemented that P. interpunctella were more susceptible to medical oils loaded nanogel (MOLNs ) than medical oils only (MO). MOLNs had best lower amount of the residual activity than MO only. MOLNs might mend the insecticidal action of the medical oil tested by the slow effective release of the medical oils to control P. interpunctella mostly at the lower doses.

Keywords: Cuminum cyminum, annona squamosa, guaiacum officinale, beauvericin 3 %, plodia interpunctella

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Authors: Brigitte Mischler, Marget Hund, Hilfiker Roger, Clare Maguire

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Background: Brain injury is one of the main causes of permanent physical disability, and improving walking ability is one of the most important goals for patients. After inpatient rehabilitation, most do not receive long-term rehabilitation services. Physical activity is important for the health prevention of the musculoskeletal system, circulatory system and the psyche. Objective: This follow-up study measured physical activity in subacute patients after traumatic brain injury and stroke. The difference in the number of steps in the inpatient setting was compared to the number of steps 1 year after the event in the outpatient setting. Methods: This follow-up study is a cross-sectional observational study with 29 participants. The measurement of daily step count over a seven-day period one year after the event was evaluated with the StepWatch™ ankle sensor. The number of steps taken one year after the event in the outpatient setting was compared with the number of steps taken during the inpatient stay and evaluated if they reached the recommended target value. Correlations between steps-count and exit domain, FAC level, walking speed, light touch, joint position sense, cognition, and fear of falling were calculated. Results: The median (IQR) daily step count of all patients was 2512 (568.5, 4070.5). During follow-up, the number of steps improved to 3656(1710,5900). The average difference was 1159(-2825, 6840) steps per day. Participants who were unable to walk independently (FAC 1) improved from 336(5-705) to 1808(92, 5354) steps per day. Participants able to walk with assistance (FAC 2-3) walked 700(31-3080) and at follow-up 3528(243,6871). Independent walkers (FAC 4-5) walked 4093(2327-5868) and achieved 3878(777,7418) daily steps at follow-up. This value is significantly below the recommended guideline. Step-count at follow-up showed moderate to high and statistically significant correlations: positive for FAC score, positive for FIM total score, positive for walking speed, and negative for fear of falling. Conclusions: Only 17% of all participants achieved the recommended daily step count one year after the event. We need better inpatient and outpatient strategies to improve physical activity. In everyday clinical practice, pedometers and diaries with objectives should be used. A concrete weekly schedule should be drawn up together with the patient, relatives, or nursing staff after discharge. This should include daily self-training, which was instructed during the inpatient stay. A good connection to social life (professional connection or a daily task/activity) can be an important part of improving daily activity. Further research should evaluate strategies to increase daily step counts in inpatient settings as well as in outpatient settings.

Keywords: neurorehabilitation, stroke, traumatic brain injury, steps, stepcount

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Authors: Edvard P. G. Bruun

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One of the best ways of improving our understanding of reinforced concrete is through large-scale experimental testing. The gathered information is critical in making inferences about structural mechanics and deriving the mathematical models that are the basis for finite element analysis programs and design codes. An effective way of measuring the strains across a region of a specimen is by using a system of surface mounted Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDTs). While a single LVDT can only measure the linear strain in one direction, by combining several measurements at known angles a Mohr’s circle of strain can be derived for the whole region under investigation. This paper presents a method that can be used by researchers, which improves the accuracy and removes experimental bias in the calculation of the Mohr’s circle, using four rather than three independent strain measurements. Obtaining high quality strain data is essential, since knowing the angular deviation (shear strain) and the angle of principal strain in the region are important properties in characterizing the governing structural mechanics. For example, the Modified Compression Field Theory (MCFT) developed at the University of Toronto, is a rotating crack model that requires knowing the direction of the principal stress and strain, and then calculates the average secant stiffness in this direction. But since LVDTs can only measure average strains across a plane (i.e., between discrete points), localized cracking and spalling that typically occur in reinforced concrete, can lead to unrealistic results. To build in redundancy and improve the quality of the data gathered, the typical experimental setup for a large-scale shell specimen has four independent directions (X, Y, H, and V) that are instrumented. The question now becomes, which three should be used? The most common approach is to simply discard one of the measurements. The problem is that this can produce drastically different answers, depending on the three strain values that are chosen. To overcome this experimental bias, and to avoid simply discarding valuable data, a more rigorous approach would be to somehow make use of all four measurements. This paper presents the derivation of a method to draw what is effectively a Mohr’s circle of 'best-fit', which optimizes the circle by using all four independent strain values. The four-strain optimized Mohr’s circle approach has been utilized to process data from recent large-scale shell tests at the University of Toronto (Ruggiero, Proestos, and Bruun), where analysis of the test data has shown that the traditional three-strain method can lead to widely different results. This paper presents the derivation of the method and shows its application in the context of two reinforced concrete shells tested in pure torsion. In general, the constitutive models and relationships that characterize reinforced concrete are only as good as the experimental data that is gathered – ensuring that a rigorous and unbiased approach exists for calculating the Mohr’s circle of strain during an experiment, is of utmost importance to the structural research community.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, shell tests, Mohr’s circle, experimental research

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Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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