Search results for: SIFT combination
337 CsPbBr₃@MOF-5-Based Single Drop Microextraction for in-situ Fluorescence Colorimetric Detection of Dechlorination Reaction
Authors: Yanxue Shang, Jingbin Zeng
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Chlorobenzene homologues (CBHs) are a category of environmental pollutants that can not be ignored. They can stay in the environment for a long period and are potentially carcinogenic. The traditional degradation method of CBHs is dechlorination followed by sample preparation and analysis. This is not only time-consuming and laborious, but the detection and analysis processes are used in conjunction with large-scale instruments. Therefore, this can not achieve rapid and low-cost detection. Compared with traditional sensing methods, colorimetric sensing is simpler and more convenient. In recent years, chromaticity sensors based on fluorescence have attracted more and more attention. Compared with sensing methods based on changes in fluorescence intensity, changes in color gradients are easier to recognize by the naked eye. Accordingly, this work proposes to use single drop microextraction (SDME) technology to solve the above problems. After the dechlorination reaction was completed, the organic droplet extracts Cl⁻ and realizes fluorescence colorimetric sensing at the same time. This method was integrated sample processing and visual in-situ detection, simplifying the detection process. As a fluorescence colorimetric sensor material, CsPbBr₃ was encapsulated in MOF-5 to construct CsPbBr₃@MOF-5 fluorescence colorimetric composite. Then the fluorescence colorimetric sensor was constructed by dispersing the composite in SDME organic droplets. When the Br⁻ in CsPbBr₃ exchanges with Cl⁻ produced by the dechlorination reactions, it is converted into CsPbCl₃. The fluorescence color of the single droplet of SDME will change from green to blue emission, thereby realizing visual observation. Therein, SDME can enhance the concentration and enrichment of Cl⁻ and instead of sample pretreatment. The fluorescence color change of CsPbBr₃@MOF-5 can replace the detection process of large-scale instruments to achieve real-time rapid detection. Due to the absorption ability of MOF-5, it can not only improve the stability of CsPbBr₃, but induce the adsorption of Cl⁻. Simultaneously, accelerate the exchange of Br- and Cl⁻ in CsPbBr₃ and the detection process of Cl⁻. The absorption process was verified by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. This method exhibits exceptional linearity for Cl⁻ in the range of 10⁻² - 10⁻⁶ M (10000 μM - 1 μM) with a limit of detection of 10⁻⁷ M. Whereafter, the dechlorination reactions of different kinds of CBHs were also carried out with this method, and all had satisfactory detection ability. Also verified the accuracy by gas chromatography (GC), and it was found that the SDME we developed in this work had high credibility. In summary, the in-situ visualization method of dechlorination reaction detection was a combination of sample processing and fluorescence colorimetric sensing. Thus, the strategy researched herein represents a promising method for the visual detection of dechlorination reactions and can be extended for applications in environments, chemical industries, and foods.Keywords: chlorobenzene homologues, colorimetric sensor, metal halide perovskite, metal-organic frameworks, single drop microextraction
Procedia PDF Downloads 143336 Fast and Non-Invasive Patient-Specific Optimization of Left Ventricle Assist Device Implantation
Authors: Huidan Yu, Anurag Deb, Rou Chen, I-Wen Wang
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The use of left ventricle assist devices (LVADs) in patients with heart failure has been a proven and effective therapy for patients with severe end-stage heart failure. Due to the limited availability of suitable donor hearts, LVADs will probably become the alternative solution for patient with heart failure in the near future. While the LVAD is being continuously improved toward enhanced performance, increased device durability, reduced size, a better understanding of implantation management becomes critical in order to achieve better long-term blood supplies and less post-surgical complications such as thrombi generation. Important issues related to the LVAD implantation include the location of outflow grafting (OG), the angle of the OG, the combination between LVAD and native heart pumping, uniform or pulsatile flow at OG, etc. We have hypothesized that an optimal implantation of LVAD is patient specific. To test this hypothesis, we employ a novel in-house computational modeling technique, named InVascular, to conduct a systematic evaluation of cardiac output at aortic arch together with other pertinent hemodynamic quantities for each patient under various implantation scenarios aiming to get an optimal implantation strategy. InVacular is a powerful computational modeling technique that integrates unified mesoscale modeling for both image segmentation and fluid dynamics with the cutting-edge GPU parallel computing. It first segments the aortic artery from patient’s CT image, then seamlessly feeds extracted morphology, together with the velocity wave from Echo Ultrasound image of the same patient, to the computation model to quantify 4-D (time+space) velocity and pressure fields. Using one NVIDIA Tesla K40 GPU card, InVascular completes a computation from CT image to 4-D hemodynamics within 30 minutes. Thus it has the great potential to conduct massive numerical simulation and analysis. The systematic evaluation for one patient includes three OG anastomosis (ascending aorta, descending thoracic aorta, and subclavian artery), three combinations of LVAD and native heart pumping (1:1, 1:2, and 1:3), three angles of OG anastomosis (inclined upward, perpendicular, and inclined downward), and two LVAD inflow conditions (uniform and pulsatile). The optimal LVAD implantation is suggested through a comprehensive analysis of the cardiac output and related hemodynamics from the simulations over the fifty-four scenarios. To confirm the hypothesis, 5 random patient cases will be evaluated.Keywords: graphic processing unit (GPU) parallel computing, left ventricle assist device (LVAD), lumped-parameter model, patient-specific computational hemodynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 133335 Implementation Research on the Singapore Physical Activity and Nutrition Program: A Mixed-Method Evaluation
Authors: Elaine Wong
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Introduction: The Singapore Physical Activity and Nutrition Study (SPANS) aimed to assess the effects of a community-based intervention on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours as well as chronic disease risk factors for Singaporean women aged above 50 years. This article examines the participation, dose, fidelity, reach, satisfaction and reasons for completion and non-completion of the SPANS. Methods: The SPANS program integrated constructs of Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) and is composed of PA activities; nutrition workshops; dietary counselling coupled with motivational interviewing (MI) through phone calls; and text messages promoting healthy behaviours. Printed educational resources and health incentives were provided to participants. Data were collected via a mixed-method design strategy from a sample of 295 intervention participants. Quantitative data were collected using self-completed survey (n = 209); qualitative data were collected via research assistants’ notes, post feedback sessions and exit interviews with program completers (n = 13) and non-completers (n = 12). Results: Majority of participants reported high ‘satisfactory to excellent’ ratings for the program pace, suitability of interest and overall program (96.2-99.5%). Likewise, similar ratings for clarity of presentation; presentation skills, approachability, knowledge; and overall rating of trainers and program ambassadors were achieved (98.6-100%). Phone dietary counselling had the highest level of participation (72%) at less than or equal to 75% attendance rate followed by nutrition workshops (65%) and PA classes (60%). Attrition rate of the program was 19%; major reasons for withdrawal were personal commitments, relocation and health issues. All participants found the program resources to be colourful, informative and practical for their own reference. Reasons for program completion and maintenance were: desired health benefits; social bonding opportunities and to learn more about PA and nutrition. Conclusions: Process evaluation serves as an appropriate tool to identify recruitment challenges, effective intervention strategies and to ensure program fidelity. Program participants were satisfied with the educational resources, program components and delivery strategies implemented by the trainers and program ambassadors. The combination of printed materials and intervention components, when guided by the SCT and MI, were supportive in encouraging and reinforcing lifestyle behavioural changes. Mixed method evaluation approaches are integral processes to pinpoint barriers, motivators, improvements and effective program components in optimising the health status of Singaporean women.Keywords: process evaluation, Singapore, older adults, lifestyle changes, program challenges
Procedia PDF Downloads 122334 CSR Communication Strategies: Stakeholder and Institutional Theories Perspective
Authors: Stephanie Gracelyn Rahaman, Chew Yin Teng, Manjit Singh Sandhu
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Corporate scandals have made stakeholders apprehensive of large companies and expect greater transparency in CSR matters. However, companies find it challenging to strategically communicate CSR to intended stakeholders and in the process may fall short on maximizing on CSR efforts. Given that stakeholders have the ability to either reward good companies or take legal action or boycott against corporate brands who do not act socially responsible, companies must create shared understanding of their CSR activities. As a result, communication has become a strategy for many companies to demonstrate CSR engagement and to minimize stakeholder skepticism. The main objective of this research is to examine the types of CSR communication strategies and predictors that guide CSR communication strategies. Employing Morsing & Schultz’s guide on CSR communication strategies, the study integrates stakeholder and institutional theory to develop a conceptual framework. The conceptual framework hypothesized that stakeholder (instrumental and normative) and institutional (regulatory environment, nature of business, mimetic intention, CSR focus and corporate objectives) dimensions would drive CSR communication strategies. Preliminary findings from semi-structured interviews in Malaysia are consistent with the conceptual model in that stakeholder and institutional expectations guide CSR communication strategies. Findings show that most companies use two-way communication strategies. Companies that identified employees, the public or customers as key stakeholders have started to embrace social media to be in-sync with new trends of communication. This is especially with the Gen Y which is their priority. Some companies creatively use multiple communication channels because they recognize different stakeholders favor different communication channels. Therefore, it appears that companies use two-way communication strategies to complement the perceived limitation of one-way communication strategies as some companies prefer a more interactive platform to strategically engage stakeholders in CSR communication. In addition to stakeholders, institutional expectations also play a vital role in influencing CSR communication. Due to industry peer pressures, corporate objectives (attract international investors and customers), companies may be more driven to excel in social performance. For these reasons companies tend to go beyond the basic mandatory requirement, excel in CSR activities and be known as companies that champion CSR. In conclusion, companies use more two-way than one-way communication and companies use a combination of one and two-way communication to target different stakeholders resulting from stakeholder and institutional dimensions. Finally, in order to find out if the conceptual framework actually fits the Malaysian context, companies’ responses for expected organizational outcomes from communicating CSR were gathered from the interview transcripts. Thereafter, findings are presented to show some of the key organizational outcomes (visibility and brand recognition, portray responsible image, attract prospective employees, positive word-of-mouth, etc.) that companies in Malaysia expect from CSR communication. Based on these findings the conceptual framework has been refined to show the new identified organizational outcomes.Keywords: CSR communication, CSR communication strategies, stakeholder theory, institutional theory, conceptual framework, Malaysia
Procedia PDF Downloads 287333 Density Functional Theory Study of the Surface Interactions between Sodium Carbonate Aerosols and Fission Products
Authors: Ankita Jadon, Sidi Souvi, Nathalie Girault, Denis Petitprez
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The interaction of fission products (FP) with sodium carbonate (Na₂CO₃) aerosols is of a high safety concern because of their potential role in the radiological source term mitigation by FP trapping. In a sodium-cooled fast nuclear reactor (SFR) experiencing a severe accident, sodium (Na) aerosols can be formed after the ejection of the liquid Na coolant inside the containment. The surface interactions between these aerosols and different FP species have been investigated using ab-initio, density functional theory (DFT) calculations using Vienna ab-initio simulation package (VASP). In addition, an improved thermodynamic model has been proposed to treat DFT-VASP calculated energies to extrapolate them to temperatures and pressures of interest in our study. A combined experimental and theoretical chemistry study has been carried out to have both atomistic and macroscopic understanding of the chemical processes; the theoretical chemistry part of this approach is presented in this paper. The Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof functional were applied in combination with Grimme’s van der Waals correction to compute exchange-correlational energy at 0 K. Seven different surface cleavages were studied of Ƴ-Na₂CO₃ phase (stable at 603.15 K), it was found that for defect-free surfaces, the (001) facet is the most stable. Furthermore, calculations were performed to study surface defects and reconstructions on the ideal surface. All the studied surface defects were found to be less stable than the ideal surface. More than one adsorbate-ligand configurations were found to be stable confirming that FP vapors could be trapped on various adsorption sites. The calculated adsorption energies (Eads, eV) for the three most stable adsorption sites for I₂ are -1.33, -1.088, and -1.085. Moreover, the adsorption of the first molecule of I₂ changes the surface in a way which would favor stronger adsorption of a second molecule of I2 (Eads, eV = -1.261). For HI adsorption, the most favored reactions have the following Eads (eV) -1.982, -1.790, -1.683 implying that HI would be more reactive than I₂. In addition to FP species, adsorption of H₂O was also studied as the hydrated surface can have different reactivity than the bare surface. One thermodynamically favored site for H₂O adsorption was found with an Eads, eV of -0.754. Finally, the calculations of hydrated surfaces of Na₂CO₃ show that a layer of water adsorbed on the surface significantly reduces its affinity for iodine (Eads, eV = -1.066). According to the thermodynamic model built, the required partial pressure at 373 K to have adsorption of the first layer of iodine is 4.57×10⁻⁴ bar. The second layer will be adsorbed at partial pressures higher than 8.56×10⁻⁶ bar; a layer of water on the surface will increase these pressure almost ten folds to 3.71×10⁻³ bar. The surface interacts with elemental Cs with an Eads (eV) of -1.60, while interacts even strongly with CsI with an Eads (eV) of -2.39. More results on the interactions between Na₂CO₃ (001) and cesium-based FP will also be presented in this paper.Keywords: iodine uptake, sodium carbonate surface, sodium-cooled fast nuclear reactor, DFT calculations, fission products
Procedia PDF Downloads 151332 Pre-Cooling Strategies for the Refueling of Hydrogen Cylinders in Vehicular Transport
Authors: C. Hall, J. Ramos, V. Ramasamy
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Hydrocarbon-based fuel vehicles are a major contributor to air pollution due to harmful emissions produced, leading to a demand for cleaner fuel types. A leader in this pursuit is hydrogen, with its application in vehicles producing zero harmful emissions and the only by-product being water. To compete with the performance of conventional vehicles, hydrogen gas must be stored on-board of vehicles in cylinders at high pressures (35–70 MPa) and have a short refueling duration (approximately 3 mins). However, the fast-filling of hydrogen cylinders causes a significant rise in temperature due to the combination of the negative Joule-Thompson effect and the compression of the gas. This can lead to structural failure and therefore, a maximum allowable internal temperature of 85°C has been imposed by the International Standards Organization. The technological solution to tackle the issue of rapid temperature rise during the refueling process is to decrease the temperature of the gas entering the cylinder. Pre-cooling of the gas uses a heat exchanger and requires energy for its operation. Thus, it is imperative to determine the least amount of energy input that is required to lower the gas temperature for cost savings. A validated universal thermodynamic model is used to identify an energy-efficient pre-cooling strategy. The model requires negligible computational time and is applied to previously validated experimental cases to optimize pre-cooling requirements. The pre-cooling characteristics include the location within the refueling timeline and its duration. A constant pressure-ramp rate is imposed to eliminate the effects of rapid changes in mass flow rate. A pre-cooled gas temperature of -40°C is applied, which is the lowest allowable temperature. The heat exchanger is assumed to be ideal with no energy losses. The refueling of the cylinders is modeled with the pre-cooling split in ten percent time intervals. Furthermore, varying burst durations are applied in both the early and late stages of the refueling procedure. The model shows that pre-cooling in the later stages of the refuelling process is more energy-efficient than early pre-cooling. In addition, the efficiency of pre-cooling towards the end of the refueling process is independent of the pressure profile at the inlet. This leads to the hypothesis that pre-cooled gas should be applied as late as possible in the refueling timeline and at very low temperatures. The model had shown a 31% reduction in energy demand whilst achieving the same final gas temperature for a refueling scenario when pre-cooling was applied towards the end of the process. The identification of the most energy-efficient refueling approaches whilst adhering to the safety guidelines is imperative to reducing the operating cost of hydrogen refueling stations. Heat exchangers are energy-intensive and thus, reducing the energy requirement would lead to cost reduction. This investigation shows that pre-cooling should be applied as late as possible and for short durations.Keywords: cylinder, hydrogen, pre-cooling, refueling, thermodynamic model
Procedia PDF Downloads 96331 Correlation Between Different Radiological Findings and Histopathological diagnosis of Breast Diseases: Retrospective Review Conducted Over Sixth Years in King Fahad University Hospital in Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia
Authors: Sadeem Aljamaan, Reem Hariri, Rahaf Alghamdi, Batool Alotaibi, Batool Alsenan, Lama Althunayyan, Areej Alnemer
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The aim of this study is to correlate between radiological findings and histopathological results in regard to the breast imaging-reporting and data system scores, size of breast masses, molecular subtypes and suspicious radiological features, as well as to assess the concordance rate in histological grade between core biopsy and surgical excision among breast cancer patients, followed by analyzing the change of concordance rate in relation to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in a Saudi population. A retrospective review was conducted over 6-year period (2017-2022) on all breast core biopsies of women preceded by radiological investigation. Chi-squared test (χ2) was performed on qualitative data, the Mann-Whitney test for quantitative non-parametric variables, and the Kappa test for grade agreement. A total of 641 cases were included. Ultrasound, mammography, and magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated diagnostic accuracies of 85%, 77.9% and 86.9%; respectively. magnetic resonance imaging manifested the highest sensitivity (72.2%), and the lowest was for ultrasound (61%). Concordance in tumor size with final excisions was best in magnetic resonance imaging, while mammography demonstrated a higher tendency of overestimation (41.9%), and ultrasound showed the highest underestimation (67.7%). The association between basal-like molecular subtypes and the breast imaging-reporting and data system score 5 classifications was statistically significant only for magnetic resonance imaging (p=0.04). Luminal subtypes demonstrated a significantly higher percentage of speculation in mammography. Breast imaging-reporting and data system score 4 manifested a substantial number of benign pathologies in all the 3 modalities. A fair concordance rate (k= 0.212 & 0.379) was demonstrated between excision and the preceding core biopsy grading with and without neoadjuvant therapy, respectively. The results demonstrated a down-grading in cases post-neoadjuvant therapy. In cases who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy, underestimation of tumor grade in biopsy was evident. In summary, magnetic resonance imaging had the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy of both diagnosis and estimation of tumor size. Mammography demonstrated better sensitivity than ultrasound and had the highest negative predictive value, but ultrasound had better specificity, positive predictive value and accuracy. Therefore, the combination of different modalities is advantageous. The concordance rate of core biopsy grading with excision was not impacted by neoadjuvant therapy.Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, MRI, neoadjuvant, pathology, US
Procedia PDF Downloads 82330 Exploring the Motivations That Drive Paper Use in Clinical Practice Post-Electronic Health Record Adoption: A Nursing Perspective
Authors: Sinead Impey, Gaye Stephens, Lucy Hederman, Declan O'Sullivan
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Continued paper use in the clinical area post-Electronic Health Record (EHR) adoption is regularly linked to hardware and software usability challenges. Although paper is used as a workaround to circumvent challenges, including limited availability of a computer, this perspective does not consider the important role paper, such as the nurses’ handover sheet, play in practice. The purpose of this study is to confirm the hypothesis that paper use post-EHR adoption continues as paper provides both a cognitive tool (that assists with workflow) and a compensation tool (to circumvent usability challenges). Distinguishing the different motivations for continued paper-use could assist future evaluations of electronic record systems. Methods: Qualitative data were collected from three clinical care environments (ICU, general ward and specialist day-care) who used an electronic record for at least 12 months. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 22 nurses. Data were transcribed, themes extracted using an inductive bottom-up coding approach and a thematic index constructed. Findings: All nurses interviewed continued to use paper post-EHR adoption. While two distinct motivations for paper use post-EHR adoption were confirmed by the data - paper as a cognitive tool and paper as a compensation tool - further finding was that there was an overlap between the two uses. That is, paper used as a compensation tool could also be adapted to function as a cognitive aid due to its nature (easy to access and annotate) or vice versa. Rather than present paper persistence as having two distinctive motivations, it is more useful to describe it as presenting on a continuum with compensation tool and cognitive tool at either pole. Paper as a cognitive tool referred to pages such as nurses’ handover sheet. These did not form part of the patient’s record, although information could be transcribed from one to the other. Findings suggest that although the patient record was digitised, handover sheets did not fall within this remit. These personal pages continued to be useful post-EHR adoption for capturing personal notes or patient information and so continued to be incorporated into the nurses’ work. Comparatively, the paper used as a compensation tool, such as pre-printed care plans which were stored in the patient's record, appears to have been instigated in reaction to usability challenges. In these instances, it is expected that paper use could reduce or cease when the underlying problem is addressed. There is a danger that as paper affords nurses a temporary information platform that is mobile, easy to access and annotate, its use could become embedded in clinical practice. Conclusion: Paper presents a utility to nursing, either as a cognitive or compensation tool or combination of both. By fully understanding its utility and nuances, organisations can avoid evaluating all incidences of paper use (post-EHR adoption) as arising from usability challenges. Instead, suitable remedies for paper-persistence can be targeted at the root cause.Keywords: cognitive tool, compensation tool, electronic record, handover sheet, nurse, paper persistence
Procedia PDF Downloads 442329 Assessing Acute Toxicity and Endocrine Disruption Potential of Selected Packages Internal Layers Extracts
Authors: N. Szczepanska, B. Kudlak, G. Yotova, S. Tsakovski, J. Namiesnik
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In the scientific literature related to the widely understood issue of packaging materials designed to have contact with food (food contact materials), there is much information on raw materials used for their production, as well as their physiochemical properties, types, and parameters. However, not much attention is given to the issues concerning migration of toxic substances from packaging and its actual influence on the health of the final consumer, even though health protection and food safety are the priority tasks. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of particular foodstuff packaging type, food production, and storage conditions on the degree of leaching of potentially toxic compounds and endocrine disruptors to foodstuffs using the acute toxicity test Microtox and XenoScreen YES YAS assay. The selected foodstuff packaging materials were metal cans used for fish storage and tetrapak. Five stimulants respectful to specific kinds of food were chosen in order to assess global migration: distilled water for aqueous foods with a pH above 4.5; acetic acid at 3% in distilled water for acidic aqueous food with pH below 4.5; ethanol at 5% for any food that may contain alcohol; dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and artificial saliva were used in regard to the possibility of using it as an simulation medium. For each packaging three independent variables (temperature and contact time) factorial design simulant was performed. Xenobiotics migration from epoxy resins was studied at three different temperatures (25°C, 65°C, and 121°C) and extraction time of 12h, 48h and 2 weeks. Such experimental design leads to 9 experiments for each food simulant as conditions for each experiment are obtained by combination of temperature and contact time levels. Each experiment was run in triplicate for acute toxicity and in duplicate for estrogen disruption potential determination. Multi-factor analysis of variation (MANOVA) was used to evaluate the effects of the three main factors solvent, temperature (temperature regime for cup), contact time and their interactions on the respected dependent variable (acute toxicity or estrogen disruption potential). From all stimulants studied the most toxic were can and tetrapak lining acetic acid extracts that are indication for significant migration of toxic compounds. This migration increased with increase of contact time and temperature and justified the hypothesis that food products with low pH values cause significant damage internal resin filling. Can lining extracts of all simulation medias excluding distilled water and artificial saliva proved to contain androgen agonists even at 25°C and extraction time of 12h. For tetrapak extracts significant endocrine potential for acetic acid, DMSO and saliva were detected.Keywords: food packaging, extraction, migration, toxicity, biotest
Procedia PDF Downloads 181328 An Investigation on the Sandwich Panels with Flexible and Toughened Adhesives under Flexural Loading
Authors: Emre Kara, Şura Karakuzu, Ahmet Fatih Geylan, Metehan Demir, Kadir Koç, Halil Aykul
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The material selection in the design of the sandwich structures is very crucial aspect because of the positive or negative influences of the base materials to the mechanical properties of the entire panel. In the literature, it was presented that the selection of the skin and core materials plays very important role on the behavior of the sandwich. Beside this, the use of the correct adhesive can make the whole structure to show better mechanical results and behavior. By this way, the sandwich structures realized in the study were obtained with the combination of aluminum foam core and three different glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins using two different commercial adhesives which are based on flexible polyurethane and toughened epoxy. The static and dynamic tests were already applied on the sandwiches with different types of adhesives. In the present work, the static three-point bending tests were performed on the sandwiches having an aluminum foam core with the thickness of 15 mm, the skins with three different types of fabrics ([0°/90°] cross ply E-Glass Biaxial stitched, [0°/90°] cross ply E-Glass Woven and [0°/90°] cross ply S-Glass Woven which have same thickness value of 1.75 mm) and two different commercial adhesives (flexible polyurethane and toughened epoxy based) at different values of support span distances (L= 55, 70, 80, 125 mm) by aiming the analyses of their flexural performance. The skins used in the study were produced via Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) technique and were easily bonded onto the aluminum foam core with flexible and toughened adhesives under a very low pressure using press machine with the alignment tabs having the total thickness of the whole panel. The main results of the flexural loading are: force-displacement curves obtained after the bending tests, peak force values, absorbed energy, collapse mechanisms, adhesion quality and the effect of the support span length and adhesive type. The experimental results presented that the sandwiches with epoxy based toughened adhesive and the skins made of S-Glass Woven fabrics indicated the best adhesion quality and mechanical properties. The sandwiches with toughened adhesive exhibited higher peak force and energy absorption values compared to the sandwiches with flexible adhesive. The core shear mode occurred in the sandwiches with flexible polyurethane based adhesive through the thickness of the core while the same mode took place in the sandwiches with toughened epoxy based adhesive along the length of the core. The use of these sandwich structures can lead to a weight reduction of the transport vehicles, providing an adequate structural strength under operating conditions.Keywords: adhesive and adhesion, aluminum foam, bending, collapse mechanisms
Procedia PDF Downloads 328327 Different Types of Bismuth Selenide Nanostructures for Targeted Applications: Synthesis and Properties
Authors: Jana Andzane, Gunta Kunakova, Margarita Baitimirova, Mikelis Marnauza, Floriana Lombardi, Donats Erts
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Bismuth selenide (Bi₂Se₃) is known as a narrow band gap semiconductor with pronounced thermoelectric (TE) and topological insulator (TI) properties. Unique TI properties offer exciting possibilities for fundamental research as observing the exciton condensate and Majorana fermions, as well as practical application in spintronic and quantum information. In turn, TE properties of this material can be applied for wide range of thermoelectric applications, as well as for broadband photodetectors and near-infrared sensors. Nanostructuring of this material results in improvement of TI properties due to suppression of the bulk conductivity, and enhancement of TE properties because of increased phonon scattering at the nanoscale grains and interfaces. Regarding TE properties, crystallographic growth direction, as well as orientation of the nanostructures relative to the growth substrate, play significant role in improvement of TE performance of nanostructured material. For instance, Bi₂Se₃ layers consisting of randomly oriented nanostructures and/or of combination of them with planar nanostructures show significantly enhanced in comparison with bulk and only planar Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures TE properties. In this work, a catalyst-free vapour-solid deposition technique was applied for controlled obtaining of different types of Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and continuous nanostructured layers for targeted applications. For example, separated Bi₂Se₃ nanoplates, nanobelts and nanowires can be used for investigations of TI properties; consisting from merged planar and/or randomly oriented nanostructures Bi₂Se₃ layers are useful for applications in heat-to-power conversion devices and infrared detectors. The vapour-solid deposition was carried out using quartz tube furnace (MTI Corp), equipped with an inert gas supply and pressure/temperature control system. Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures/nanostructured layers of desired type were obtained by adjustment of synthesis parameters (process temperature, deposition time, pressure, carrier gas flow) and selection of deposition substrate (glass, quartz, mica, indium-tin-oxide, graphene and carbon nanotubes). Morphology, structure and composition of obtained Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and nanostructured layers were inspected using SEM, AFM, EDX and HRTEM techniques, as well as home-build experimental setup for thermoelectric measurements. It was found that introducing of temporary carrier gas flow into the process tube during the synthesis and deposition substrate choice significantly influence nanostructures formation mechanism. Electrical, thermoelectric, and topological insulator properties of different types of deposited Bi₂Se₃ nanostructures and nanostructured coatings are characterized as a function of thickness and discussed.Keywords: bismuth seleinde, nanostructures, topological insulator, vapour-solid deposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 231326 Multi-Objective Optimization (Pareto Sets) and Multi-Response Optimization (Desirability Function) of Microencapsulation of Emamectin
Authors: Victoria Molina, Wendy Franco, Sergio Benavides, José M. Troncoso, Ricardo Luna, Jose R. PéRez-Correa
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Emamectin Benzoate (EB) is a crystal antiparasitic that belongs to the avermectin family. It is one of the most common treatments used in Chile to control Caligus rogercresseyi in Atlantic salmon. However, the sea lice acquired resistance to EB when it is exposed at sublethal EB doses. The low solubility rate of EB and its degradation at the acidic pH in the fish digestive tract are the causes of the slow absorption of EB in the intestine. To protect EB from degradation and enhance its absorption, specific microencapsulation technologies must be developed. Amorphous Solid Dispersion techniques such as Spray Drying (SD) and Ionic Gelation (IG) seem adequate for this purpose. Recently, Soluplus® (SOL) has been used to increase the solubility rate of several drugs with similar characteristics than EB. In addition, alginate (ALG) is a widely used polymer in IG for biomedical applications. Regardless of the encapsulation technique, the quality of the obtained microparticles is evaluated with the following responses, yield (Y%), encapsulation efficiency (EE%) and loading capacity (LC%). In addition, it is important to know the percentage of EB released from the microparticles in gastric (GD%) and intestinal (ID%) digestions. In this work, we microencapsulated EB with SOL (EB-SD) and with ALG (EB-IG) using SD and IG, respectively. Quality microencapsulation responses and in vitro gastric and intestinal digestions at pH 3.35 and 7.8, respectively, were obtained. A central composite design was used to find the optimum microencapsulation variables (amount of EB, amount of polymer and feed flow). In each formulation, the behavior of these variables was predicted with statistical models. Then, the response surface methodology was used to find the best combination of the factors that allowed a lower EB release in gastric conditions, while permitting a major release at intestinal digestion. Two approaches were used to determine this. The desirability approach (DA) and multi-objective optimization (MOO) with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). Both microencapsulation techniques allowed to maintain the integrity of EB in acid pH, given the small amount of EB released in gastric medium, while EB-IG microparticles showed greater EB release at intestinal digestion. For EB-SD, optimal conditions obtained with MOO plus MCDM yielded a good compromise among the microencapsulation responses. In addition, using these conditions, it is possible to reduce microparticles costs due to the reduction of 60% of BE regard the optimal BE proposed by (DA). For EB-GI, the optimization techniques used (DA and MOO) yielded solutions with different advantages and limitations. Applying DA costs can be reduced 21%, while Y, GD and ID showed 9.5%, 84.8% and 2.6% lower values than the best condition. In turn, MOO yielded better microencapsulation responses, but at a higher cost. Overall, EB-SD with operating conditions selected by MOO seems the best option, since a good compromise between costs and encapsulation responses was obtained.Keywords: microencapsulation, multiple decision-making criteria, multi-objective optimization, Soluplus®
Procedia PDF Downloads 131325 The Association of Vitamin B12 with Body Weight-and Fat-Based Indices in Childhood Obesity
Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma
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Vitamin deficiencies are common in obese individuals. Particularly, the status of vitamin B12 and its association with vitamin B9 (folate) and vitamin D is under investigation in recent time. Vitamin B12 is closely related to many vital processes in the body. In clinical studies, its involvement in fat metabolism draws attention from the obesity point of view. Obesity, in its advanced stages and in combination with metabolic syndrome (MetS) findings, may be a life-threatening health problem. Pediatric obesity is particularly important because it may be a predictor of severe chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the child. Due to its role in fat metabolism, vitamin B12 deficiency may disrupt metabolic pathways of the lipid and energy metabolisms in the body. The association of low B12 levels with obesity degree may be an interesting topic to be investigated. Obesity indices may be helpful at this point. Weight- and fat-based indices are available. Of them, body mass index (BMI) is in the first group. Fat mass index (FMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II (D2I) index lie in the latter group. The aim of this study is to clarify possible associations between vitamin B12 status and obesity indices in the pediatric population. The study comprises a total of one hundred and twenty-two children. Thirty-two children were included in the normal body mass index (N-BMI) group. Forty-six and forty-four children constitute groups with morbid obese children without MetS and with MetS, respectively. Informed consent forms and the approval of the institutional ethics committee were obtained. Tables prepared for obesity classification by World Health Organization were used. Metabolic syndrome criteria were defined. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were taken. Body mass index, FMI, FFMI, D2I were calculated. Routine laboratory tests were performed. Vitamin B9, B12, D concentrations were determined. Statistical evaluation of the study data was performed. Vitamin B9 and vitamin D levels were reduced in MetS group compared to children with N-BMI (p>0.05). Significantly lower values were observed in vitamin B12 concentrations of MetS group (p<0.01). Upon evaluation of blood pressure as well as triglyceride levels, there exist significant increases in morbid obese children. Significantly decreased concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. All of the obesity indices and insulin resistance index exhibit increasing tendency with the severity of obesity. Inverse correlations were calculated between vitamin D and insulin resistance index as well as vitamin B12 and D2I in morbid obese groups. In conclusion, a fat-based index, D2I, was the most prominent body index, which shows a strong correlation with vitamin B12 concentrations in the late stage of obesity in children. A negative correlation between these two parameters was a confirmative finding related to the association between vitamin B12 and obesity degree.Keywords: body mass index, children, D2I index, fat mass index, obesity
Procedia PDF Downloads 206324 Preliminary Design, Production and Characterization of a Coral and Alginate Composite for Bone Engineering
Authors: Sthephanie A. Colmenares, Fabio A. Rojas, Pablo A. Arbeláez, Johann F. Osma, Diana Narvaez
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The loss of functional tissue is a ubiquitous and expensive health care problem, with very limited treatment options for these patients. The golden standard for large bone damage is a cadaveric bone as an allograft with stainless steel support; however, this solution only applies to bones with simple morphologies (long bones), has a limited material supply and presents long term problems regarding mechanical strength, integration, differentiation and induction of native bone tissue. Therefore, the fabrication of a scaffold with biological, physical and chemical properties similar to the human bone with a fabrication method for morphology manipulation is the focus of this investigation. Towards this goal, an alginate and coral matrix was created using two production techniques; the coral was chosen because of its chemical composition and the alginate due to its compatibility and mechanical properties. In order to construct the coral alginate scaffold the following methodology was employed; cleaning of the coral, its pulverization, scaffold fabrication and finally the mechanical and biological characterization. The experimental design had: mill method and proportion of alginate and coral, as the two factors, with two and three levels each, using 5 replicates. The coral was cleaned with sodium hypochlorite and hydrogen peroxide in an ultrasonic bath. Then, it was milled with both a horizontal and a ball mill in order to evaluate the morphology of the particles obtained. After this, using a combination of alginate and coral powder and water as a binder, scaffolds of 1cm3 were printed with a SpectrumTM Z510 3D printer. This resulted in solid cubes that were resistant to small compression stress. Then, using a ESQUIM DP-143 silicon mold, constructs used for the mechanical and biological assays were made. An INSTRON 2267® was implemented for the compression tests; the density and porosity were calculated with an analytical balance and the biological tests were performed using cell cultures with VERO fibroblast, and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) as visualization tool. The Young’s moduli were dependent of the pulverization method, the proportion of coral and alginate and the interaction between these factors. The maximum value was 5,4MPa for the 50/50 proportion of alginate and horizontally milled coral. The biological assay showed more extracellular matrix in the scaffolds consisting of more alginate and less coral. The density and porosity were proportional to the amount of coral in the powder mix. These results showed that this composite has potential as a biomaterial, but its behavior is elastic with a small Young’s Modulus, which leads to the conclusion that the application may not be for long bones but for tissues similar to cartilage.Keywords: alginate, biomaterial, bone engineering, coral, Porites asteroids, SEM
Procedia PDF Downloads 254323 The Mitigation of Quercetin on Lead-Induced Neuroinflammation in a Rat Model: Changes in Neuroinflammatory Markers and Memory
Authors: Iliyasu Musa Omoyine, Musa Sunday Abraham, Oladele Sunday Blessing, Iliya Ibrahim Abdullahi, Ibegbu Augustine Oseloka, Nuhu Nana-Hawau, Animoku Abdulrazaq Amoto, Yusuf Abdullateef Onoruoiza, Sambo Sohnap James, Akpulu Steven Peter, Ajayi Abayomi
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The neuroprotective role of inflammation from detrimental intrinsic and extrinsic factors has been reported. However, the overactivation of astrocytes and microglia due to lead toxicity produce excessive pro-inflammatory cytokines, mediating neurodegenerative diseases. The present study investigated the mitigatory effects of quercetin on neuroinflammation, correlating with memory function in lead-exposed rats. In this study, Wistar rats were administered orally with Quercetin (Q: 60 mg/kg) and Succimer as a standard drug (S: 10 mg/kg) for 21 days after lead exposure (Pb: 125 mg/kg) of 21 days or in combination with Pb, once daily for 42 days. Working and reference memory was assessed using an Eight-arm radial water maze (8-ARWM). The changes in brain lead level, the neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) activity, and the level of neuroinflammatory markers such as tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and Interleukin 1 Beta (IL-1β) were determined. Immunohistochemically, astrocyte expression was evaluated. The results showed that the brain level of lead was increased significantly in lead-exposed rats. The expression of astrocytes increased in the CA3 and CA1 regions of the hippocampus, and the levels of brain TNF-α and IL-1β increased in lead-exposed rats. Lead impaired reference and working memory by increasing reference memory errors and working memory incorrect errors in lead-exposed rats. However, quercetin treatment effectively improved memory and inhibited neuroinflammation by reducing astrocytes’ expression and the levels of TNF-α and IL-1β. The expression of astrocytes and the levels of TNF-α and IL-1β correlated with memory function. The possible explanation for quercetin’s anti-neuroinflammatory effect is that it modulates the activity of cellular proteins involved in the inflammatory response; inhibits the transcription factor of nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB), which regulates the expression of proinflammatory molecules; inhibits kinases required for the synthesis of Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and modifies the phosphorylation of some proteins, which affect the structure and function of intermediate filament proteins; and, lastly, induces Cyclic-AMP Response Element Binding (CREB) activation and neurogenesis as a compensatory mechanism for memory deficits and neuronal cell death. In conclusion, the levels of neuroinflammatory markers negatively correlated with memory function. Thus, quercetin may be a promising therapy in neuroinflammation and memory dysfunction in populations prone to lead exposure.Keywords: lead, quercetin, neuroinflammation, memory
Procedia PDF Downloads 53322 Translation of Post-Soviet Kyrgyz Women’s Poetry
Authors: K. Kalieva, G. Ibraimova
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In literature, poetry stands as a profound genre that bridges the life experiences of everyday people, transcending language and culture to unite people through the universal language of emotion and human connection. This paper explores the collaborative efforts of translators in creating the anthology of post-Soviet Kyrgyz women’s poetry, a project spanning over ten years. This compelling anthology brings together the works of fifty prominent female poets from Kyrgyzstan during the post-Soviet era. It includes the original poems in Kyrgyz and provide English translations, sharing the rich and diverse voices of Kyrgyz women with a global audience and fostering a deep appreciation for the beauty of their words. The paper highlights the unique perspectives on life, love, and identity offered by each poet, and emphasizes the role of translation in making these voices accessible worldwide. Each poet's unique voice offers a glimpse into the rich cultural and literary landscape of Kyrgyzstan, highlighting themes that resonate universally. Methodology of the paper employs a combination of qualitative content analysis, semiotic analysis, and quantitative thematic analysis to examine the translation strategies, and the cultural and emotional peculiarities captured in the translations, as well as the themes explored by the poets in their poems. Through the art of translation, the paper explores the lyrical world of Kyrgyz women poets. Although Kyrgyz poets’ names and poems are unfamiliar to many, their words resonate with an emotional depth that is sure to leave a lasting impression. Kyrgyz women's poetry translated into English celebrates the distinctive voices of women in the contemporary world. It serves as a reminder that poetry possesses the power to transcend life's obstacles, foster mutual understanding, and inspire positive change. The poems created by Kyrgyz women are envisioned to serve as a source of inspiration for readers. The paper proposes a poetic journey created by Kyrgyz women, offering readers an opportunity to experience Kyrgyz landscapes, traditions, and universal human themes through their verses. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the poem translations, exploring the beauty and depth of the poets' thoughts and feelings. Through these translations, readers are invited to explore the world of Kyrgyz women poets, enriching their understanding of the language, culture, and the profound human experiences conveyed in the poetry. The hypotheses of the paper is that analyzing these translations through translation studies theories and linguistic and semiotic frameworks will reveal the complexities and challenges involved in translating poetry across languages and cultures.Keywords: Kyrgyz poetry, post-soviet literature, translation, women poets.
Procedia PDF Downloads 25321 Finite Element Analysis of the Anaconda Device: Efficiently Predicting the Location and Shape of a Deployed Stent
Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash
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Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment
Procedia PDF Downloads 191320 Viability of Permaculture Principles to Sustainable Agriculture Enterprises in Malta
Authors: Byron Baron
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Malta is a Mediterranean archipelago presenting a combination of environmental conditions which are less suitable for agriculture. This has resulted in a heavy dependence on agricultural chemicals, as well as over-extraction of groundwater, compounded by concomitant destruction of natural habitat surrounding the land areas used for agriculture. Such prolonged intensive land use has resulted in even greater degradation of Maltese soils. This study was thus designed with the goal of assessing the viability of implementing a sustainable agricultural system based on permaculture practices compared to the traditional local practices applied for intensive farming. The permaculture model was implemented over a period of two years for a number of locally-grown staple crops. The tangible targets included improved soil health, reduced water consumption, increased reliance on renewable energy, increased wild plant and insect diversity, and sustained crop yield. To achieve this in the permaculture test area, numerous practices were introduced. In line with permaculture principles land, tillage was reduced, only natural fertilisers were used, no herbicides or pesticides were used, irrigation was linked to a desalination system with sensors for monitoring soil parameters, mulching was practiced, and a photovoltaic system was installed. Furthermore, areas for wild plants were increased and controlled only by trimming, not mowing. A variety of environmental parameters were measured at regular intervals as well as crop yield (in kilos of produce) in order to quantify if any improvements in crop output and environmental conditions were obtained. The results obtained show a very slight improvement in overall soil health due to the brevity of the test period. Water consumption was reduced by over 50% with no apparent losses or ill effects on the crops. Renewable energy was sufficient to provide all electric power on-site, so apart from the initial investment costs, there were no limitations. Moreover, surrounding the commercial crops with borders of wild plants whilst only taking up less than 15% of the total land area assisted pollination, increased animal visitors, and did not give rise to any pest infestations. The conclusion from this study was that whilst results are promising, more detailed and long-term studies are required to understand the full extent of the implications brought about by such a transition, which hints towards the untapped potential of investing in the available resources on the island with the goal of improving the balance between economic prosperity and ecological sustainability.Keywords: agronomic measures, ecological amplification, sustainability, permaculture
Procedia PDF Downloads 97319 Hygro-Thermal Modelling of Timber Decks
Authors: Stefania Fortino, Petr Hradil, Timo Avikainen
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Timber bridges have an excellent environmental performance, are economical, relatively easy to build and can have a long service life. However, the durability of these bridges is the main problem because of their exposure to outdoor climate conditions. The moisture content accumulated in wood for long periods, in combination with certain temperatures, may cause conditions suitable for timber decay. In addition, moisture content variations affect the structural integrity, serviceability and loading capacity of timber bridges. Therefore, the monitoring of the moisture content in wood is important for the durability of the material but also for the whole superstructure. The measurements obtained by the usual sensor-based techniques provide hygro-thermal data only in specific locations of the wood components. In this context, the monitoring can be assisted by numerical modelling to get more information on the hygro-thermal response of the bridges. This work presents a hygro-thermal model based on a multi-phase moisture transport theory to predict the distribution of moisture content, relative humidity and temperature in wood. Below the fibre saturation point, the multi-phase theory simulates three phenomena in cellular wood during moisture transfer, i.e., the diffusion of water vapour in the pores, the sorption of bound water and the diffusion of bound water in the cell walls. In the multi-phase model, the two water phases are separated, and the coupling between them is defined through a sorption rate. Furthermore, an average between the temperature-dependent adsorption and desorption isotherms is used. In previous works by some of the authors, this approach was found very suitable to study the moisture transport in uncoated and coated stress-laminated timber decks. Compared to previous works, the hygro-thermal fluxes on the external surfaces include the influence of the absorbed solar radiation during the time and consequently, the temperatures on the surfaces exposed to the sun are higher. This affects the whole hygro-thermal response of the timber component. The multi-phase model, implemented in a user subroutine of Abaqus FEM code, provides the distribution of the moisture content, the temperature and the relative humidity in a volume of the timber deck. As a case study, the hygro-thermal data in wood are collected from the ongoing monitoring of the stress-laminated timber deck of Tapiola Bridge in Finland, based on integrated humidity-temperature sensors and the numerical results are found in good agreement with the measurements. The proposed model, used to assist the monitoring, can contribute to reducing the maintenance costs of bridges, as well as the cost of instrumentation, and increase safety.Keywords: moisture content, multi-phase models, solar radiation, timber decks, FEM
Procedia PDF Downloads 175318 Dynamic EEG Desynchronization in Response to Vicarious Pain
Authors: Justin Durham, Chanda Rooney, Robert Mather, Mickie Vanhoy
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The psychological construct of empathy is to understand a person’s cognitive perspective and experience the other person’s emotional state. Deciphering emotional states is conducive for interpreting vicarious pain. Observing others' physical pain activates neural networks related to the actual experience of pain itself. The study addresses empathy as a nonlinear dynamic process of simulation for individuals to understand the mental states of others and experience vicarious pain, exhibiting self-organized criticality. Such criticality follows from a combination of neural networks with an excitatory feedback loop generating bistability to resonate permutated empathy. Cortical networks exhibit diverse patterns of activity, including oscillations, synchrony and waves, however, the temporal dynamics of neurophysiological activities underlying empathic processes remain poorly understood. Mu rhythms are EEG oscillations with dominant frequencies of 8-13 Hz becoming synchronized when the body is relaxed with eyes open and when the sensorimotor system is in idle, thus, mu rhythm synchrony is expected to be highest in baseline conditions. When the sensorimotor system is activated either by performing or simulating action, mu rhythms become suppressed or desynchronize, thus, should be suppressed while observing video clips of painful injuries if previous research on mirror system activation holds. Twelve undergraduates contributed EEG data and survey responses to empathy and psychopathy scales in addition to watching consecutive video clips of sports injuries. Participants watched a blank, black image on a computer monitor before and after observing a video of consecutive sports injuries incidents. Each video condition lasted five-minutes long. A BIOPAC MP150 recorded EEG signals from sensorimotor and thalamocortical regions related to a complex neural network called the ‘pain matrix’. Physical and social pain are activated in this network to resonate vicarious pain responses to processing empathy. Five EEG single electrode locations were applied to regions measuring sensorimotor electrical activity in microvolts (μV) to monitor mu rhythms. EEG signals were sampled at a rate of 200 Hz. Mu rhythm desynchronization was measured via 8-13 Hz at electrode sites (F3 & F4). Data for each participant’s mu rhythms were analyzed via Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) and multifractal time series analysis.Keywords: desynchronization, dynamical systems theory, electroencephalography (EEG), empathy, multifractal time series analysis, mu waveform, neurophysiology, pain simulation, social cognition
Procedia PDF Downloads 283317 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Droughts in the Limpopo River Basin
Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski
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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin
Procedia PDF Downloads 128316 Inpatient Glycemic Management Strategies and Their Association with Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 Patients
Authors: Thao Nguyen, Maximiliano Hyon, Sany Rajagukguk, Anna Melkonyan
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Introduction: Type 2 Diabetes is a well-established risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Uncontrolled hyperglycemia in patients with established or newly diagnosed diabetes is associated with poor outcomes, including increased mortality and hospital length of stay. Objectives: Our study aims to compare three different glycemic management strategies and their association with clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized for moderate to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Identifying optimal glycemic management strategies will improve the quality of patient care and improve their outcomes. Method: This is a retrospective observational study on patients hospitalized at Adventist Health White Memorial with severe SARS-CoV-2 infection from 11/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. The following inclusion criteria were used: positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, age >18 yrs old, diabetes or random glucose >200 mg/dL on admission, oxygen requirement >4L/min, and treatment with glucocorticoids. Our exclusion criteria included: ICU admission within 24 hours, discharge within five days, death within five days, and pregnancy. The patients were divided into three glycemic management groups: Group 1, managed solely by the Primary Team, Group 2, by Pharmacy; and Group 3, by Endocrinologist. Primary outcomes were average glucose on Day 5, change in glucose between Days 3 and 5, and average insulin dose on Day 5 among groups. Secondary outcomes would be upgraded to ICU, inpatient mortality, and hospital length of stay. For statistics, we used IBM® SPSS, version 28, 2022. Results: Most studied patients were Hispanic, older than 60, and obese (BMI >30). It was the first CV-19 surge with the Delta variant in an unvaccinated population. Mortality was markedly high (> 40%) with longer LOS (> 13 days) and a high ICU transfer rate (18%). Most patients had markedly elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, Ferritin, and D-Dimer). These, in combination with glucocorticoids, resulted in severe hyperglycemia that was difficult to control. Average glucose on Day 5 was not significantly different between groups primary vs. pharmacy vs. endocrine (220.5 ± 63.4 vs. 240.9 ± 71.1 vs. 208.6 ± 61.7 ; P = 0.105). Change in glucose from days 3 to 5 was not significantly different between groups but trended towards favoring the endocrinologist group (-26.6±73.6 vs. 3.8±69.5 vs. -32.2±84.1; P= 0.052). TDD insulin was not significantly different between groups but trended towards higher TDD for the endocrinologist group (34.6 ± 26.1 vs. 35.2 ± 26.4 vs. 50.5 ± 50.9; P=0.054). The endocrinologist group used significantly more preprandial insulin compared to other groups (91.7% vs. 39.1% vs. 65.9% ; P < 0.001). The pharmacy used more basal insulin than other groups (95.1% vs. 79.5% vs. 79.2; P = 0.047). There were no differences among groups in the clinical outcomes: LOS, ICU upgrade, or mortality. Multivariate regression analysis controlled for age, sex, BMI, HbA1c level, renal function, liver function, CRP, d-dimer, and ferritin showed no difference in outcomes among groups. Conclusion: Given high-risk factors in our population, despite efforts from the glycemic management teams, it’s unsurprising no differences in clinical outcomes in mortality and length of stay.Keywords: glycemic management, strategies, hospitalized, SARS-CoV-2, outcomes
Procedia PDF Downloads 448315 The Role of the Corporate Social Responsibility in Poverty Reduction
Authors: M. Verde, G. Falzarano
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The paper examines the connection between corporate social responsibility (CSR), capability approach and poverty reduction; in particular, the local employment development (LED) by way of CSR initiatives. The joint action of LED/CSR results in a win-win situation, not only for the enterprises but also for all the stakeholders involved; in this regard, subsidiarity and coordination between national and regional/local authorities are central to a socially-oriented market economy. In the first section, the CSR is analysed on the basis of its social function in the fight against poverty, as a 'capabilities deprivation'. In the central part, the attention is focused on the relationship between CSR and LED; ergo, on the role of the enterprises in fostering capabilities development (the employment). Besides, all the potential solutions are presented, stressing the possible combinations, in the last part. The benchmark is the enterprise as an economic and a social institution: the business should not be combined with profit merely, paying more attention to its sustainable impact and social contribution. In which way could it be possible? The answer is the CSR. The impact of CSR on poverty reduction is still little explored. The companies help to reduce poverty through economic contribution, human rights and social inclusion; hence, the business becomes an 'agent of development' in order to fight against 'inequality'. The starting point is the pyramid of social responsibility, where ethic and philanthropic responsibilities involve programmes and actions aimed at personal development of the individuals, improving human standard of living in all forms, including poverty, when people do not have a choice between different 'life options', ranging from level of education to employment. At this point, CSR comes into play and works on two dimensions: poverty reduction and poverty prevention, by means of a series of initiatives: first of all, job creation and precarious work reduction. Empowerment of the local actors, financial support and combination of top down and bottom up initiatives are some of CSR areas of activity. Several positive effects occur on individual levels of educations, access to capital, individual health status, empowerment of youth and woman, access to social networks and it was observed that these effects depend on the type of CSR strategy. Indeed, CSR programmes should take into account fundamental criteria, such as the transparency, the information about benefits, a coordination unit among institutions and more clear guidelines. In this way, the advantages to the corporate reputation and to the community translate into a better job matching on the labour market, inter alia. It is important to underline that the success depends on the specific measures of the areas in question, by adapting them to the local needs, in light of general principles and index; therefore, the concrete commitment of the all stakeholders involved is decisive in order to achieve the goals. The enterprise would represent a concrete contribution for the pursuit of sustainable development and for the dissemination of a social and well being awareness.Keywords: capability approach, local employment development, poverty, social inclusion
Procedia PDF Downloads 138314 Implementation of Ecological and Energy-Efficient Building Concepts
Authors: Robert Wimmer, Soeren Eikemeier, Michael Berger, Anita Preisler
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A relatively large percentage of energy and resource consumption occurs in the building sector. This concerns the production of building materials, the construction of buildings and also the energy consumption during the use phase. Therefore, the overall objective of this EU LIFE project “LIFE Cycle Habitation” (LIFE13 ENV/AT/000741) is to demonstrate innovative building concepts that significantly reduce CO₂emissions, mitigate climate change and contain a minimum of grey energy over their entire life cycle. The project is being realised with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Union. The ultimate goal is to design and build prototypes for carbon-neutral and “LIFE cycle”-oriented residential buildings and make energy-efficient settlements the standard of tomorrow in line with the EU 2020 objectives. To this end, a resource and energy-efficient building compound is being built in Böheimkirchen, Lower Austria, which includes 6 living units and a community area as well as 2 single family houses with a total usable floor surface of approximately 740 m². Different innovative straw bale construction types (load bearing and pre-fabricated non loadbearing modules) together with a highly innovative energy-supply system, which is based on the maximum use of thermal energy for thermal energy services, are going to be implemented. Therefore only renewable resources and alternative energies are used to generate thermal as well as electrical energy. This includes the use of solar energy for space heating, hot water and household appliances like dishwasher or washing machine, but also a cooking place for the community area operated with thermal oil as heat transfer medium on a higher temperature level. Solar collectors in combination with a biomass cogeneration unit and photovoltaic panels are used to provide thermal and electric energy for the living units according to the seasonal demand. The building concepts are optimised by support of dynamic simulations. A particular focus is on the production and use of modular prefabricated components and building parts made of regionally available, highly energy-efficient, CO₂-storing renewable materials like straw bales. The building components will be produced in collaboration by local SMEs that are organised in an efficient way. The whole building process and results are monitored and prepared for knowledge transfer and dissemination including a trial living in the residential units to test and monitor the energy supply system and to involve stakeholders into evaluation and dissemination of the applied technologies and building concepts. The realised building concepts should then be used as templates for a further modular extension of the settlement in a second phase.Keywords: energy-efficiency, green architecture, renewable resources, sustainable building
Procedia PDF Downloads 149313 Applying a SWOT Analysis to Inform the Educational Provision of Learners with Autism Spectrum Disorders
Authors: Claire Sciberras
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Introduction: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has become recognized as being the most common childhood neurological condition. Indeed, numerous studies demonstrate an increase in the prevalence rate of children diagnosed with ASD. Concurrent with these findings, the European Agency for Special Needs and Inclusive Education reported a similar escalating tendency in prevalence also in Malta. Such an increase within the educational context in Malta has led the European Agency to call for increased support within educational settings in Malta. However, although research has addressed the positive impact of mainstream education on learners with ASD, empirical studies vis-à-vis the internal and external strengths and weaknesses present within the support provided in mainstream settings in Malta is distinctly limited. In light of the aforementioned argument, Malta would benefit from research which focuses on analysing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOTs) which are present within the support provision of learners with ASD in mainstream primary schools. Such SWOT analysis is crucial as lack of appropriate opportunities might jeopardize the educational and social experiences of persons with ASD throughout their schooling. Methodology: A mixed methodological approach would be well suited to examine the provision of support of learners with ASD as the combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches allows researchers to collect a comprehensive range of data and validate their results. Hence, it is intended that questionnaires will be distributed to all the stakeholders involved so as to acquire a broader perspective to be collected from a wider group who provide support to students with ASD across schools in Malta. Moreover, the use of a qualitative approach in the form of interviews with a sample group will be implemented. Such an approach will be considered as it would potentially allow the researcher to gather an in-depth perspective vis-à-vis to the nature of the services which are currently provided to learners with ASD. The intentions of the study: Through the analysis of the data collected vis-à-vis to the SWOTs within the provision of support of learners with ASD it is intended that; i) a description in regards to the educational provision for learners with ASD within mainstream primary schools in Malta in light of the experiences and perceptions of the stakeholders involved will be acquired; ii) an analysis of the SWOTs which exist within the services for learners with ASD in primary state schools in Malta is carried out and iii) based on the SWOT analysis, recommendations that can lead to improvements in practice in the field of ASD in Malta and beyond will be provided. Conclusion: Due to the heterogeneity of individuals with ASD which spans across several deficits related to the social communication and interaction domain and also across areas linked to restricted, repetitive behavioural patterns, educational settings need to alter their standards according to the needs of their students. Thus, the standards established by schools throughout prior phases do not remain applicable forever, and therefore these need to be reviewed periodically in accordance with the diversities and the necessities of their learners.Keywords: autism spectrum disorders, mainstream educational settings, provision of support, SWOT analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 191312 Bank Failures: A Question of Leadership
Authors: Alison L. Miles
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Almost all major financial institutions in the world suffered losses due to the financial crisis of 2007, but the extent varied widely. The causes of the crash of 2007 are well documented and predominately focus on the role and complexity of the financial markets. The dominant theme of the literature suggests the causes of the crash were a combination of globalization, financial sector innovation, moribund regulation and short termism. While these arguments are undoubtedly true, they do not tell the whole story. A key weakness in the current analysis is the lack of consideration of those leading the banks pre and during times of crisis. This purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between the leadership styles and characteristics of the CEO, CFO and chairman and the financial institutions that failed or needed recapitalization. As such, it contributes to the literature and debate on international financial crises and systemic risk and also to the debate on risk management and regulatory reform in the banking sector. In order to first test the proposition (p1) that there are prevalent leadership characteristics or traits in financial institutions, an initial study was conducted using a sample of the top 65 largest global banks and financial institutions according to the Banker Top 1000 banks 2014. Secondary data from publically available and official documents, annual reports, treasury and parliamentary reports together with a selection of press articles and analyst meeting transcripts was collected longitudinally from the period 1998 to 2013. A computer aided key word search was used in order to identify the leadership styles and characteristics of the chairman, CEO and CFO. The results were then compared with the leadership models to form a picture of leadership in the sector during the research period. As this resulted in separate results that needed combining, SPSS data editor was used to aggregate the results across the studies using the variables ‘leadership style’ and ‘company financial performance’ together with the size of the company. In order to test the proposition (p2) that there was a prevalent leadership style in the banks that failed and the proposition (P3) that this was different to those that did not, further quantitative analysis was carried out on the leadership styles of the chair, CEO and CFO of banks that needed recapitalization, were taken over, or required government bail-out assistance during 2007-8. These included: Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Barclays, Northern Rock, Fortis and Allied Irish. The findings show that although regulatory reform has been a key mechanism of control of behavior in the banking sector, consideration of the leadership characteristics of those running the board are a key factor. They add weight to the argument that if each crisis is met with the same pattern of popular fury with the financier, increased regulation, followed by back to business as usual, the cycle of failure will always be repeated and show that through a different lens, new paradigms can be formed and future clashes avoided.Keywords: banking, financial crisis, leadership, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 318311 A Conceptual Framework of Integrated Evaluation Methodology for Aquaculture Lakes
Authors: Robby Y. Tallar, Nikodemus L., Yuri S., Jian P. Suen
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Research in the subject of ecological water resources management is full of trivial questions addressed and it seems, today to be one branch of science that can strongly contribute to the study of complexity (physical, biological, ecological, socio-economic, environmental, and other aspects). Existing literature available on different facets of these studies, much of it is technical and targeted for specific users. This study offered the combination all aspects in evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes with its paradigm refer to hierarchical theory and to the effects of spatial specific arrangement of an object into a space or local area. Therefore, the process in developing a conceptual framework represents the more integrated and related applicable concept from the grounded theory. A design of integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes is presented. The method is based on the identification of a series of attributes which can be used to describe status of aquaculture lakes using certain indicators from aquaculture water quality index (AWQI), aesthetic aquaculture lake index (AALI) and rapid appraisal for fisheries index (RAPFISH). The preliminary preparation could be accomplished as follows: first, the characterization of study area was undertaken at different spatial scales. Second, an inventory data as a core resource such as city master plan, water quality reports from environmental agency, and related government regulations. Third, ground-checking survey should be completed to validate the on-site condition of study area. In order to design an integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes, finally we integrated and developed rating scores system which called Integrated Aquaculture Lake Index (IALI).The development of IALI are reflecting a compromise all aspects and it responds the needs of concise information about the current status of aquaculture lakes by the comprehensive approach. IALI was elaborated as a decision aid tool for stakeholders to evaluate the impact and contribution of anthropogenic activities on the aquaculture lake’s environment. The conclusion was while there is no denying the fact that the aquaculture lakes are under great threat from the pressure of the increasing human activities, one must realize that no evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes can succeed by keeping the pristine condition. The IALI developed in this work can be used as an effective, low-cost evaluation methodology of aquaculture lakes for developing countries. Because IALI emphasizes the simplicity and understandability as it must communicate to decision makers and the experts. Moreover, stakeholders need to be helped to perceive their lakes so that sites can be accepted and valued by local people. For this site of lake development, accessibility and planning designation of the site is of decisive importance: the local people want to know whether the lake condition is safe or whether it can be used.Keywords: aesthetic value, AHP, aquaculture lakes, integrated lakes, RAPFISH
Procedia PDF Downloads 237310 Kosovar Teachers' Understanding of Literacy Education
Authors: Anemonë Zeneli
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Classrooms composed of students with varied linguistic repertoires, in combination with new technologies, have shifted what it means to be literate and how literacy is taught. At the same time, definitions of literacy matter greatly as they shape literacy education curricula, national literacy agendas, and pedagogical choices. Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of New Literacy Studies and Critical Literacy, this research investigates how Kosovar teachers make sense of literacy. The study employed a qualitative research design involving classroom observations, teacher interviews, and document analysis in a public school in the capital city of Kosovo, Prishtina. Data was collected from 5 Albanian language teachers. Classroom observations allowed for the documentation of how teachers applied literacy and language pedagogies to their teaching. Teacher interviews provided insights into teachers’ understanding of literacy education and the rationale behind their chosen pedagogies. Document analysis, more specifically, lesson plan analysis, further explained teachers’ content and instructional choices. The findings suggest that teachers understand literacy as standardized language instruction. They spoke to the challenges of language instruction in standardized Albanian in a Gheg (dialect) dominant society. Teachers’ narratives described the tension that students face in navigating standardized language expectations while being unable to use their home (Gheg) literacies. Teachers’ narratives were imbued with moral contestation as they explained the lack of an infrastructure that allows students to apply their home language and literacies in the classroom. Furthermore, teachers expressed their insistence on teaching “the words of the book.” While this viewpoint on language and literacy is generally aligned with normative and colonial expectations on language, at the same time, it reveals teachers’ intention to ‘equip’ their students with skills and practices that they will be tested on. Some of the teachers also articulated the need for a pedagogy of correction that the work of upholding the standardized language variation necessitates. Here, teachers also utilized discourses of neoliberalism when discussing students’ English repertoire and its value in “opening doors” and advancement opportunities in life while further framing students’ home literacies, the Gheg dialect, in a deficit manner. If educators and policymakers are to make informed decisions about efforts to improve schools, it is important to improve our knowledge of what informs teachers’ pedagogical choices in teaching literacy. This study contributes to and expands the current knowledge base on teachers’ understanding of literacy education and their role in shaping literacy education. As schools continue to navigate (growing) diverse forms of literacy, this study highlights the importance of equipping educators with the knowledge and tools to apply literacy pedagogies that reflect the ever-shifting definitions of literacy education.Keywords: literacy education, standardized language, critical narrative analysis, literacy teaching
Procedia PDF Downloads 18309 EQMamba - Method Suggestion for Earthquake Detection and Phase Picking
Authors: Noga Bregman
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Accurate and efficient earthquake detection and phase picking are crucial for seismic hazard assessment and emergency response. This study introduces EQMamba, a deep-learning method that combines the strengths of the Earthquake Transformer and the Mamba model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. EQMamba leverages the computational efficiency of Mamba layers to process longer seismic sequences while maintaining a manageable model size. The proposed architecture integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and Mamba blocks. The model employs an encoder composed of convolutional layers and max pooling operations, followed by residual CNN blocks for feature extraction. Mamba blocks are applied to the outputs of BiLSTM blocks, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies in seismic data. Separate decoders are used for earthquake detection, P-wave picking, and S-wave picking. We trained and evaluated EQMamba using a subset of the STEAD dataset, a comprehensive collection of labeled seismic waveforms. The model was trained using a weighted combination of binary cross-entropy loss functions for each task, with the Adam optimizer and a scheduled learning rate. Data augmentation techniques were employed to enhance the model's robustness. Performance comparisons were conducted between EQMamba and the EQTransformer over 20 epochs on this modest-sized STEAD subset. Results demonstrate that EQMamba achieves superior performance, with higher F1 scores and faster convergence compared to EQTransformer. EQMamba reached F1 scores of 0.8 by epoch 5 and maintained higher scores throughout training. The model also exhibited more stable validation performance, indicating good generalization capabilities. While both models showed lower accuracy in phase-picking tasks compared to detection, EQMamba's overall performance suggests significant potential for improving seismic data analysis. The rapid convergence and superior F1 scores of EQMamba, even on a modest-sized dataset, indicate promising scalability for larger datasets. This study contributes to the field of earthquake engineering by presenting a computationally efficient and accurate method for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. Future work will focus on incorporating Mamba layers into the P and S pickers and further optimizing the architecture for seismic data specifics. The EQMamba method holds the potential for enhancing real-time earthquake monitoring systems and improving our understanding of seismic events.Keywords: earthquake, detection, phase picking, s waves, p waves, transformer, deep learning, seismic waves
Procedia PDF Downloads 51308 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models
Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg
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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 309