Search results for: model qualification

Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Mohammed Islam, Jungyong Wang, Dong Cheol Seo

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The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is a novel, meshless, and Lagrangian technique based numerical method that has shown promises to accurately predict the hydrodynamics of water and structure interactions in violent flow conditions. The main goal of this study is to build confidence on the versatility of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) based tool, to use it as a complementary tool to the physical model testing capabilities and support research need for the performance evaluation of ships and offshore platforms exposed to an extreme and harsh environment. In the current endeavor, an open-sourced SPH-based tool was used and validated for modeling and predictions of the hydrodynamic interactions of a 6-DOF ship and bergy bits. The study involved the modeling of a modern generic drillship and simplified bergy bits in floating and towing scenarios and in regular and irregular wave conditions. The predictions were validated using the model-scale measurements on a moored ship towed at multiple oblique angles approaching a floating bergy bit in waves. Overall, this study results in a thorough comparison between the model scale measurements and the prediction outcomes from the SPH tool for performance and accuracy. The SPH predicted ship motions and forces were primarily within ±5% of the measurements. The velocity and pressure distribution and wave characteristics over the free surface depicts realistic interactions of the wave, ship, and the bergy bit. This work identifies and presents several challenges in preparing the input file, particularly while defining the mass properties of complex geometry, the computational requirements, and the post-processing of the outcomes.

Keywords: SPH, ship and bergy bit, hydrodynamic interactions, model validation, physical model testing

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Authors: M. R. Bekli, N. Mebarki, I. Chadou

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In this study, we focus on the structure functions and violation of scale invariance in the context of non-commutative standard model (NCSM). We find that this violation appears in the first order of perturbation theory and a non-commutative version of the DGLAP evolution equation is deduced. Numerical analysis and comparison with experimental data imposes a new bound on the non-commutative parameter.

Keywords: NCSM, structure function, DGLAP equation, standard model

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

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This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Wichian Sriprachan, Chutikarn Sriviboon

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The objectives of this research were to study the management of local towns and to develop a better model of town management according to the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy. This study utilized qualitative research, field research, as well as documentary research at the same time. A total of 10 local towns or Tambons of Supanburi province, Thailand were selected for an in-depth interview. The findings revealed that the model of local town management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy was in a level of “good” and the model of management has the five basic guidelines: 1) ability to manage budget information and keep it up-to-date, 2) ability to decision making according to democracy rules, 3) ability to use check and balance system, 4) ability to control, follow, and evaluation, and 5) ability to allow the general public to participate. In addition, the findings also revealed that the human resource management according to Philosophy of Sufficient Economy includes obeying laws, using proper knowledge, and having integrity in five areas: plan, recruit, select, train, and maintain human resources.

Keywords: management, local town (Tambon), principles of sufficiency economy, marketing management

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Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

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Authors: Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

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Terrorism, which remains one of the largest threats faced by various nations and communities around the world, including Nigeria, is the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population to attain particular goals that might be political, religious, or economical. Several terrorist groups are currently active in Nigeria, leading to attacks on both civil and military targets. Among these groups, Boko Haram is the deadliest terrorist group operating majorly in Borno State. The southern part of Borno State in North-Eastern Nigeria has been plagued by terrorism, insurgency, and conflict for several years. Understanding the dynamics of terrorism is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate its impact on communities and to facilitate peace-building efforts. This research aims to develop a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of terrorism within the southern part of Borno State, Nigeria, capturing both government and local community intervention strategies as control measures in combating terrorism. A compartmental model of five nonlinear differential equations is formulated. The model analyses show that a feasible solution set of the model exists and is bounded. Stability analyses show that both the terrorism free equilibrium and the terrorism endermic equilibrium are asymptotically stable, making the model to have biological meaning. Optimal control theory will be employed to identify the most effective strategy to prevent or minimize acts of terrorism. The research outcomes are expected to contribute towards enhancing security and stability in Southern Borno State while providing valuable insights for policymakers, security agencies, and researchers. This is an ongoing research.

Keywords: modelling, terrorism, optimal control, susceptible, non-susceptible, community intervention

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Authors: Riccardo Bonazzi, Michaël Poli, Abeba Nigussie Turi

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This paper presents an applied research of a new module for the financial administration and management industry, Personalizable and Automated Checklists Integrator, Overseeing Legal Investigations (PACIOLI). It aims at designing the business model of the trust company of the future. By identifying the key stakeholders, we draw a general business process design of the industry. The business model focuses on disintermediating the traditional form of business through the new technological solutions of a software company based in Switzerland and hence creating a new interactive platform. The key stakeholders of this interactive platform are identified as IT experts, legal experts, and the New Edge Trust Company (NATC). The mechanism we design and propose has a great importance in improving the efficiency of the financial business administration and management industry, and it also helps to foster the provision of high value added services in the sector.

Keywords: new edge trust company, business model design, automated checklists, financial technology

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Authors: Barbara Vojvodikova, Katerina Jupova, Iva Ticha

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Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.

Keywords: climate model, heat islands, Hodonin, land use changes, Ostrava

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Authors: Lyka Selene Magnayi, Marcos Vinas, Roseanne Ramos

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As the real estate industry continually grows in the Philippines, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide advantages in generating spatial databases for efficient delivery of information and services. The real estate sector is not only providing qualitative data about real estate properties but also utilizes various spatial aspects of these properties for different applications such as hazard mapping and assessment. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) model and a spatial database of real estate properties in Fort Bonifacio, Taguig City are developed using GIS and SketchUp. Spatial datasets include political boundaries, buildings, road network, digital terrain model (DTM) derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) image, Google Earth satellite imageries, and hazard maps. Multiple model layers were created based on property listings by a partner real estate company, including existing and future property buildings. Actual building dimensions, building facade, and building floorplans are incorporated in these 3D models for geovisualization. Hazard model layers are determined through spatial overlays, and different scenarios of hazards are also presented in the models. Animated maps and walkthrough videos were created for company presentation and evaluation. Model evaluation is conducted through client surveys requiring scores in terms of the appropriateness, information content, and design of the 3D models. Survey results show very satisfactory ratings, with the highest average evaluation score equivalent to 9.21 out of 10. The output maps and videos obtained passing rates based on the criteria and standards set by the intended users of the partner real estate company. The methodologies presented in this study were found useful and have remarkable advantages in the real estate industry. This work may be extended to automated mapping and creation of online spatial databases for better storage, access of real property listings and interactive platform using web-based GIS.

Keywords: geovisualization, geographic information systems, GIS, real estate, spatial database, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Sergio Curilef, Boris Atenas

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Systems with long-range interactions are very common in nature. They are observed from the atomic scale to the astronomical scale and exhibit anomalies, such as inequivalence of ensembles, negative heat capacity, ergodicity breaking, nonequilibrium phase transitions, quasistationary states, and anomalous diffusion. These anomalies are exacerbated when special initial conditions are imposed; in particular, we use the so-called water bag initial conditions that stand for a uniform distribution. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed here. A potential energy inspired by dipole-dipole interactions is proposed to build the dipole-type Hamiltonian mean-field model. As expected, the dynamics is novel and general to the behavior of systems with long-range interactions, which is obtained through molecular dynamics technique. Two plateaus sequentially emerge before arriving at equilibrium, which are corresponding to two different quasistationary states. The first plateau is a type of quasistationary state the lifetime of which depends on a power law of N and the second plateau seems to be a true quasistationary state as reported in the literature. The general behavior of the model according to its dynamics and thermodynamics is described. Using numerical simulation we characterize the mean kinetic energy, caloric curve, and the diffusion law through the mean square of displacement. The present challenge is to characterize the distributions in phase space. Certainly, the equilibrium state is well characterized by the Gaussian distribution, but quasistationary states in general depart from any Gaussian function.

Keywords: dipole-type interactions, dynamics and thermodynamics, mean field model, quasistationary states

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Authors: Saniye Çeşmecioğlu

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The importance of project sustainability and success has become increasingly significant due to the proliferation of external environmental factors that have decreased project resistance in contemporary times. The primary approach to forestall the failure of projects is to ensure their long-term viability through the strategic selection of projects as creating judicious project selection framework within the organization. Decision-makers require precise decision contexts (models) that conform to the company's business objectives and sustainability expectations during the project selection process. The establishment of a rational model for project selection enables organizations to create a distinctive and objective framework for the selection process. Additionally, for the optimal implementation of this decision-making model, it is crucial to establish a Project Management Office (PMO) team and Project Steering Committee within the organizational structure to oversee the framework. These teams enable updating project selection criteria and weights in response to changing conditions, ensuring alignment with the company's business goals, and facilitating the selection of potentially viable projects. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision model for selecting project sustainability and project success criteria that ensures timely project completion and retention. The model was developed using MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) and was based on broadcaster companies’ expectations. The ultimate results of this study provide a model that endorses the process of selecting the appropriate project objectively by utilizing project selection and sustainability criteria along with their respective weights for organizations. Additionally, the study offers suggestions that may ascertain helpful in future endeavors.

Keywords: project portfolio management, project selection, multi-criteria decision making, project sustainability and success criteria, MACBETH

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Authors: M. G. N. A. S. Fernando

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This study uses a researchable framework to improve the quality of ICT education and the Teaching Learning Assessment/ Evaluation (TLA/TLE) process. It utilizes existing resources while improving the methodologies along with pedagogical techniques and e-Learning approaches used in the secondary schools of Sri Lanka. The study was carried out in two phases. Phase I focused on investigating the factors which affect the quality of ICT education. Based on the key factors of phase I, the Phase II focused on the design of an Experimental Application Model with 6 activity levels. Each Level in the Activity Model covers one or more levels in the Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy. Towards further enhancement of activity levels, other pedagogical techniques (activity based learning, e-learning techniques, problem solving activities and peer discussions etc.) were incorporated to each level in the activity model as appropriate. The application model was validated by a panel of teachers including a domain expert and was tested in the school environment too. The validity of performance was proved using 6 hypotheses testing and other methodologies. The analysis shows that student performance with problem solving activities increased by 19.5% due to the different treatment levels used. Compared to existing process it was also proved that the embedded techniques (mixture of traditional and modern pedagogical methods and their applications) are more effective with skills development of teachers and students.

Keywords: activity models, Bloom’s taxonomy, ICT education, pedagogies

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Authors: Tapas Acharya, Monalisa Mitra

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Overlay modeling is the most widely used conventional analysis for spatial decision support system. Overlay modeling requires a set of themes with different weightage computed in varied manners, which gives a resultant input for further integrated analysis. In spite of the popularity and most widely used technique; it gives inconsistent and erroneous results for similar inputs while processed in various GIS overlay techniques. This study is an attempt to compare and analyse the differences in the outputs of different overlay methods using GIS platform with same set of themes of the Precambrian metamorphic to obtain groundwater prospecting in Precambrian metamorphic rocks. The objective of the study is to emphasize the most suitable overlay method for groundwater prospecting in older Precambrian metamorphics. Seven input thematic layers like slope, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil thickness, lineament intersection density, average groundwater table fluctuation, stream density and lithology have been used in the spatial overlay models of fuzzy overlay, weighted overlay and weighted sum overlay methods to yield the suitable groundwater prospective zones. Spatial concurrence analysis with high yielding wells of the study area and the statistical comparative studies among the outputs of various overlay models using RStudio reveal that the Weighted Overlay model is the most efficient GIS overlay model to delineate the groundwater prospecting zones in the Precambrian metamorphic rocks.

Keywords: fuzzy overlay, GIS overlay model, groundwater prospecting, Precambrian metamorphics, weighted overlay, weighted sum overlay

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Authors: Elena Pozdnyakova

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“Government Relations” is a field of knowledge presently taught at the majority of universities around the globe. English as the default language can become the language of teaching since the issues discussed are both global and national in character. However for this field of knowledge key concepts and their word representations in English don’t often coincide with those in other languages. International master’s degree students abroad as well as students, taught the course in English at their national universities, are exposed to difficulties, connected with correct conceptualizing of terminology of GR in British and American academic traditions. The study was carried out during the GR English language course elaboration (pilot research: 2013 -2015) at Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations (University), Russian Federation. Within this period, English language instructors designed and elaborated the three-semester course of GR. Methodologically the course design was based on elaboration model with the special focus on conceptual elaboration sequence and theoretical elaboration sequence. The course designers faced difficulties in concept selection and theoretical elaboration sequence. To improve the results and eliminate the problems with concept selection, a new, corpus-based approach was worked out. The computer-based tool WordSmith 6.0 was used with the aim to build a model of key concept selection. The corpus of GR English texts consisted of 1 million words (the study corpus). The approach was based on measuring effect size, i.e. the percent difference of the frequency of a word in the study corpus when compared to that in the reference corpus. The results obtained proved significant improvement in the process of concept selection. The corpus-based model also facilitated theoretical elaboration of teaching materials.

Keywords: corpus-based study, English as the default language, key concepts, measuring effect size, model of key concept selection

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Natalia Feruleva

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The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

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Authors: Nabila Jaman, K. E. Hoque, S. Sawall, M. Ferdows

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Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most lethal diseases of the cardiovascular diseases. Coronary arteries stenosis and bifurcation angles closely interact for myocardial infarction. We want to use computer-aided design model coupled with computational hemodynamics (CHD) simulation for detecting several types of coronary artery stenosis with different locations in an idealized model for identifying virtual fractional flow reserve (vFFR). The vFFR provides us the information about the severity of stenosis in the computational models. Another goal is that we want to imitate patient-specific computed tomography coronary artery angiography model for constructing our idealized models with different left anterior descending (LAD) and left circumflex (LCx) bifurcation angles. Further, we want to analyze whether the bifurcation angles has an impact on the creation of narrowness in coronary arteries or not. The numerical simulation provides the CHD parameters such as wall shear stress (WSS), velocity magnitude and pressure gradient (PGD) that allow us the information of stenosis condition in the computational domain.

Keywords: CAD, CHD, vFFR, bifurcation angles, coronary stenosis

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: Michal Biały, Konrad Pietrykowski, Rafal Sochaczewski

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The kinematics and dynamics analysis of crank-piston system of aircraft engine. The object of the study was the high power aircraft engine ASz 62-IR. This engine is produced by a Polish company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A.". All analyzes were performed numerically using CAD and CAE environment. Three-dimensional model of the crank-piston system was developed based on real engine located in the Laboratory of Centre of Innovation and Advanced Technologies of Lublin University of Technology. During the development of the model, the technique of reverse engineering - 3D scanning was used. ASz 62-IR engine is characterized by a radial type of crank-piston system. In this system the cylinders are arranged radially around the circle. This crank-piston system consists of a main connecting rod and eight additional connecting rods. In addition, three-dimensional model consists of a piston pins, pistons and piston rings. As a result of the specific engine design, characteristics of the piston individual movement are slightly different from each other. But the model assumes that they are the same during the analysis. Three-dimensional model of the engine was implemented into the MSC Adams software. The environment of MSC Adams allows for multibody simulation of the dynamic phenomena. This determines the state parameters of the moving elements, among which the load or force distribution on each kinematic node can be distinguished. Materials and characteristic materials parameters were adopted on the basis of commonly used materials for engine parts. The mass values of individual elements were adopted on the basis of real engine parts. The piston gas forces were replaced by calculation of pressure variations recorded during engine tests on the engine test bench. The research the changes of forces acting in the individual kinematic pairs of crank-piston system. The model allows to determine the load on the crankshaft main bearings. This gives the possibility for the main supports forces analysis The model allows for testing and simulation of kinematics and dynamics of a radial aircraft engine. This is the first stage of the work, which aims to numerical simulation of vibration of multi-cylinder aircraft engine. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: aircraft engine, CAD, CAE, dynamics, kinematics, MSC Adams, numerical simulation

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Authors: Dongju Kim, Youngjoo Suh, Hyojin Kim, Gyeongyeong Kim

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Acoustic Emission Testing (AET) is widely used to test the structural integrity of an operational hydrogen storage container, and clustering algorithms are frequently used in pattern recognition methods to interpret AET results. However, the interpretation of AET results can vary from user to user as the tuning of the relevant parameters relies on the user's experience and knowledge of AET. Therefore, it is necessary to use a deep learning model to identify patterns in acoustic emission (AE) signal data that can be used to classify defects instead. In this paper, a deep learning-based model for classifying the types of defects in hydrogen storage tanks, using AE sensor waveforms, is proposed. As hydrogen storage tanks are commonly constructed using carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite (CFRP), a defect classification dataset is collected through a tensile test on a specimen of CFRP with an AE sensor attached. The performance of the classification model, using one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) data augmentation, achieved 91.09% accuracy for each defect. It is expected that the deep learning classification model in this paper, used with AET, will help in evaluating the operational safety of hydrogen storage containers.

Keywords: acoustic emission testing, carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite, one-dimensional convolutional neural network, smote data augmentation

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Authors: Emmanuel Okechukwu Nwafor, Folake Olubunmi Akintayo, Denis Alcides Rezende

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Decision tree models are versatile and interpretable machine learning algorithms widely used for both classification and regression tasks, which can be related to cities, whether physical or digital. The aim of this research is to assess how well decision tree algorithms can predict trip purposes in Makurdi, Nigeria, while also exploring their connection to the strategic digital city initiative. The research methodology involves formalizing household demographic and trips information datasets obtained from extensive survey process. Modelling and Prediction were achieved using Python Programming Language and the evaluation metrics like R-squared and mean absolute error were used to assess the decision tree algorithm's performance. The results indicate that the model performed well, with accuracies of 84% and 68%, and low MAE values of 0.188 and 0.314, on training and validation data, respectively. This suggests the model can be relied upon for future prediction. The conclusion reiterates that This model will assist decision-makers, including urban planners, transportation engineers, government officials, and commuters, in making informed decisions on transportation planning and management within the framework of a strategic digital city. Its application will enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and overall quality of transportation services in Makurdi, Nigeria.

Keywords: decision tree algorithm, trip purpose, intelligent transport, strategic digital city, travel pattern, sustainable transport

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Authors: T. Yuri, M. Zagloel, Inaki M. Hakim, Tegu Bintang Nugraha

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In an era of customer centricity, automotive parts manufacturer in Indonesia must be able to keep up with the uncertainty and fluctuation of consumer demand. Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is a strategy to react to predicted and unpredicted changes of demand in automotive industry. This research is about flexible mixed model assembly line design through Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Line Balancing in mixed model assembly line prior to simulation. It uses value stream mapping to identify and reduce waste while finding the best position to add or reduce manpower. Line balancing is conducted to minimize or maximize production rate while increasing assembly line productivity and efficiency. Results of this research is a recommendation of standard work combination for specifics demand scenario which can enhance assembly line efficiency and productivity.

Keywords: automotive industry, demand uncertainty, flexible assembly system, line balancing, value stream mapping

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Authors: Jutamas Wisansing, Thanakarn Vongvisitsin, Udom Hongchatikul

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Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) is a public organization, dedicating to sustainable tourism development in 6 designated areas in Thailand. This paper provides rich reflections from a decade of DASTA, formulating an advanced model to deepen our understanding of 2 key intertwining issues; 1) what are the new landscapes of actors for community based tourism and 2) who are the benefactors and beneficiaries of tourism development within the community? An action research approach was used, enabling the process and evidence-based cases to be better captured. The aim is to build theoretical foundation through 13 communities/cases, which have engaged in community based tourism pilot projects. Drawing from emic and qualitative research, specific and contextual phenomenon provides succinct patterns of ‘Community Benefitting through Tourism (CbtT)’ model. The re-definition of the 2 key issues helps shape the interlinking of actors; practicalities of inclusive tourism and inter-sectoral framework and its value chain will also be set forth. In tourism sector, community members could be active primarily on the supply side as employees, entrepreneurs and local heritage experts. CbtT when well defined stimulates the entire value chain of local economy while promoting social innovation through positive dialogue with wider actors. Collaboration with a new set of actors who are from the tourism-related businesses and non-tourism related businesses create better impacts on mutual benefits.

Keywords: community based tourism, community benefitting through tourism -CbtT DASTA model, sustainable tourism in thailand, value chain and inclusive business

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Authors: David Percy

Abstract:

Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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Authors: Salman Obaidoon, Mohamed Hassan, Omer Bakather

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As environmental regulations increase, the need for a clean and inexpensive energy is becoming necessary these days using an available raw material with high efficiency and low emissions of toxic gases. This paper presents a study on modifying a gas turbine power plant fired by diesel, which is located in Saudi Arabia in order to increase the efficiency and capacity of the station as well as decrease the rate of emissions. The studied power plant consists of 30 units with different capacities and total net power is 1470 MW. The study was conducted on unit number 25 (GT-25) which produces 72.3 MW with 29.5% efficiency. In the beginning, the unit was modeled and simulated by using WinSim Design II software. In this step, actual unit data were used in order to test the validity of the model. The net power and efficiency obtained from software were 76.4 MW and 32.2% respectively. A difference of about 6% was found in the simulated power plant compared to the actual station which means that the model is valid. After the validation of the model, the simple gas turbine power plant was converted to a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). In this case, the exhausted gas released from the gas turbine was introduced to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), which consists of three heat exchangers: an economizer, an evaporator and a superheater. In this proposed model, many scenarios were conducted in order to get the optimal operating conditions. The net power of CCPP was increased to 116.4 MW while the overall efficiency of the unit was reached to 49.02%, consuming the same amount of fuel for the gas turbine power plant. For the purpose of comparing the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide on each model. It was found that the rate of CO₂ emissions was decreased from 15.94 kg/s to 9.22 kg/s by using the combined cycle power model as a result of reducing of the amount of diesel from 5.08 kg/s to 2.94 kg/s needed to produce 76.5 MW. The results indicate that the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide was decreased by 42.133% in CCPP compared to the simple gas turbine power plant.

Keywords: combined cycle power plant, efficiency, heat recovery steam generator, simulation, validation, WinSim design II software

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

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We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 209