Search results for: threshold models

Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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In today's data-driven world, the role of mathematics in bridging the gap between theory and applications is becoming increasingly vital. This abstract highlights the significance of mathematics as a powerful tool for analyzing, interpreting, and extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of data. By integrating mathematical principles with real-world applications, researchers can unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making processes. This abstract delves into the various ways mathematics acts as a bridge connecting theoretical frameworks to practical applications. It explores the utilization of mathematical models, algorithms, and statistical techniques to uncover hidden patterns, trends, and correlations within complex datasets. Furthermore, it investigates the role of mathematics in enhancing predictive modeling, optimization, and risk assessment methodologies for improved decision-making in diverse fields such as finance, healthcare, engineering, and social sciences. The abstract also emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, and domain experts to tackle the challenges posed by the data-driven landscape. By fostering synergies between these disciplines, novel approaches can be developed to address complex problems and make data-driven insights accessible and actionable. Moreover, this abstract underscores the importance of robust mathematical foundations for ensuring the reliability and validity of data analysis. Rigorous mathematical frameworks not only provide a solid basis for understanding and interpreting results but also contribute to the development of innovative methodologies and techniques. In summary, this abstract advocates for the pivotal role of mathematics in bridging theory and applications in a data-driven world. By harnessing mathematical principles, researchers can unlock the transformative potential of data analysis, paving the way for evidence-based decision-making, optimized processes, and innovative solutions to the challenges of our rapidly evolving society.

Keywords: mathematics, bridging theory and applications, data-driven world, mathematical models

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Authors: Olorunsanya E. O., Adedeji S. O., Anyanwu A. A.

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Food insecurity is a challenge to many nations Nigeria inclusive. It is increasingly becoming a major problem among farm households due to many factors chief of which is low labour productivity. This study therefore profiles the food security status of a representative randomly selected 90 farming households in Chanchaga area of Nigeria’s Guinea Savana using structured interview schedule Descriptive and inferential statistics were used as analytical tools for the study. The results of the descriptive statistics show that majority (35.56%) of the surveyed household heads fall within the age range of 40 – 49 years and (88.89%) are male while (78.89) are married. More than half of the respondents have formal education. About 43.3% of the household heads have farm experience of 11- 20 years and a modal household size class range of 7 – 12. The results further reveal that majority (68.8%) earned more than N12, 500 (22.73 US Dollar) per month. The result of households’ food expenditure pattern reveals that an average household spends about N3, 644.44 (6.63 US Dollar) on food and food items on a weekly basis. The result of the analysis of food diversity intake in the study area shows that 63.33% of the sampled households fell under the low household food diversity intake, while 33 households, representing 36.67% ranks high in term of household food diversity intake. The result for the food security status shows that the sampled population was food secure (58.89%) while 41.11% falls below the recommended threshold. The result for the logistics regression model shows that age, engagement in off farm employment and household size are significant in determining the food security status of farm household in the study area. The three variables were significant at 10%, 5% and 1% respectively. The study therefore recommends among others, that measures be put in place by stakeholders to make agriculture attractive for youth since age is a significant determinant of food security in the study area. Awareness should also be created by stakeholders on the needs for effective family planning methods to be adopted by farm household in the study area.

Keywords: Niger State, Guinea Savana, food diversity, logit regression model and food security

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Gunilla Dahlgren, Per Liv, Fredrik Öhberg, Lisbeth Slunga Järvholm, Mikael Forsman, Börje Rehn

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Background: Accuracy of risk assessment tools in hand-repetitive work is important. This can support precision in the risk management process and for a sustainable working life for women and men equally. Musculoskeletal disorders, MSDs, from the hand, wrist, and forearm, are common in the working population. Women report a higher prevalence of MSDs in these regions. Objective: The objective of this study was to compare if women and men who performed the identical hand-intensive work task were rated equally using the Hand Activity Threshold Limit Value® (HA-TLV) when self-rated and observer-rated. Method: Fifty-six workers from eight companies participated, with various intensities in hand-repetitive work tasks. In total, 18 unique identical hand-intensive work tasks were executed in 28 pairs of a woman and a man. Hand activity and force levels were assessed. Each worker executed the work task for 15 minutes, which was also video recorded. Data was collected on workers who self-rated directly after the execution of the work task. Also, experienced observers performed ratings from videos of the same work tasks. For comparing means between women and men, paired samples t-tests were used. Results: The main results showed that there was no difference in self-ratings of hand activity level and force by women and men who executed the same work task. Further, there was no difference between observer ratings of hand activity level. However, the observer force ratings of women and men differed significantly (p=0.01). Conclusion: Hand activity and force levels are rated equally in women and men when self-rated, also by observers for hand activity. However, it is an observandum that observer force rating is rated higher for women and lower for men. This indicates the need of comparing force ratings with technical measures.

Keywords: gender, equity, sex differences, repetitive strain injury, cumulative trauma disorders, upper extremity, exposure assessment, workload, health risk assessment, observation, psychophysics

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Komal Rathore, Kiesha Pierre, Kyle Cogswell, Aaron Driscoll, Andres Tejada Martinez, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford, Aydin Sunol

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Modeling of Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants requires several parameters for kinetic rate expressions, thermo-physical properties, and hydrodynamic behavior. The kinetics and associated mechanisms become complex due to several biological processes taking place in wastewater treatment plants at varying times and spatial scales. A dynamic process model that incorporated the complex model for activated sludge kinetics was developed using the BioWin software platform for an Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant in Valrico, Florida. Due to the extensive number of tunable parameters, an experimental design was employed for judicious selection of the most influential parameter sets and their bounds. The model was tuned using both the influent and effluent plant data to reconcile and rectify the forecasted results from the BioWin Model. Amount of mixed liquor suspended solids in the oxidation ditch, aeration rates and recycle rates were adjusted accordingly. The experimental analysis and plant SCADA data were used to predict influent wastewater rates and composition profiles as a function of time for extended periods. The lumped dynamic model development process was coupled with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the key units such as oxidation ditches in the plant. Several CFD models that incorporate the nitrification-denitrification kinetics, as well as, hydrodynamics was developed and being tested using ANSYS Fluent software platform. These realistic and verified models developed using BioWin and ANSYS were used to plan beforehand the operating policies and control strategies for the biological wastewater plant accordingly that further allows regulatory compliance at minimum operational cost. These models, with a little bit of tuning, can be used for other biological wastewater treatment plants as well. The BioWin model mimics the existing performance of the Valrico Plant which allowed the operators and engineers to predict effluent behavior and take control actions to meet the discharge limits of the plant. Also, with the help of this model, we were able to find out the key kinetic and stoichiometric parameters which are significantly more important for modeling of biological wastewater treatment plants. One of the other important findings from this model were the effects of mixed liquor suspended solids and recycle ratios on the effluent concentration of various parameters such as total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, etc. The ANSYS model allowed the abstraction of information such as the formation of dead zones increases through the length of the oxidation ditches as compared to near the aerators. These profiles were also very useful in studying the behavior of mixing patterns, effect of aerator speed, and use of baffles which in turn helps in optimizing the plant performance.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow-sheet simulation, kinetic modeling, process dynamics

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Authors: Aleksandr S. Demin, Anastasiia V. Ivanova

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Purpose: The current economy tends to increase the influence of digital technologies and diminish the human role in management. However, it is impossible to deny that a person still leads a business with its own set of values and priorities. The article presented aims to incorporate the peculiarities of the national culture and the characteristics of the supply chain using the quantitative values of the national culture obtained by the scholars of comparative management (Hofstede, House, and others). Design/Methodology/Approach: The conducted research is based on the secondary data in the field of cross-country comparison achieved by Prof. Hofstede and received in the GLOBE project. The data mentioned are used to design different aspects of the supply chain both on the cross-functional and inter-organizational levels. The connection between a range of principles in general (roles assignment, customer service prioritization, coordination of supply chain partners) and in comparative management (acknowledgment of the national peculiarities of the country in which the company operates) is shown over economic and mathematical models, mainly linear programming models. Findings: The combination of the team management wheel concept, the business processes of the global supply chain, and the national culture characteristics let a transnational corporation to form a supply chain crew balanced in costs, functions, and personality. To elaborate on an effective customer service policy and logistics strategy in goods and services distribution in the country under review, two approaches are offered. The first approach relies exceptionally on the customer’s interest in the place of operation, while the second one takes into account the position of the transnational corporation and its previous experience in order to accord both organizational and national cultures. The effect of integration practice on the achievement of a specific supply chain goal in a specific location is advised to assess via types of correlation (positive, negative, non) and the value of national culture indices. Research Limitations: The models developed are intended to be used by transnational companies and business forms located in several nationally different areas. Some of the inputs to illustrate the application of the methods offered are simulated. That is why the numerical measurements should be used with caution. Practical Implications: The research can be of great interest for the supply chain managers who are responsible for the engineering of global supply chains in a transnational corporation and the further activities in doing business on the international area. As well, the methods, tools, and approaches suggested can be used by top managers searching for new ways of competitiveness and can be suitable for all staff members who are keen on the national culture traits topic. Originality/Value: The elaborated methods of decision-making with regard to the national environment suggest the mathematical and economic base to find a comprehensive solution.

Keywords: logistics integration, logistics services, multinational corporation, national culture, team management, service policy, supply chain management

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Le Kang

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On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Abdelhalim. N. Mohammed, Mohammed. Y. Esmail

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In the course of recent decades, medical imaging has been dominated by the use of costly film media for review and archival of medical investigation, however due to developments in networks technologies and common acceptance of a standard digital imaging and communication in medicine (DICOM) another approach in light of World Wide Web was produced. Web technologies successfully used in telemedicine applications, the combination of web technologies together with DICOM used to design a web-based and open source DICOM viewer. The Web server allowance to inquiry and recovery of images and the images viewed/manipulated inside a Web browser without need for any preinstalling software. The dynamic site page for medical images visualization and processing created by using JavaScript and HTML5 advancements. The XAMPP ‘apache server’ is used to create a local web server for testing and deployment of the dynamic site. The web-based viewer connected to multiples devices through local area network (LAN) to distribute the images inside healthcare facilities. The system offers a few focal points over ordinary picture archiving and communication systems (PACS): easy to introduce, maintain and independently platforms that allow images to display and manipulated efficiently, the system also user-friendly and easy to integrate with an existing system that have already been making use of web technologies. The wavelet-based image compression technique on which 2-D discrete wavelet transform used to decompose the image then wavelet coefficients are transmitted by entropy encoding after threshold to decrease transmission time, stockpiling cost and capacity. The performance of compression was estimated by using images quality metrics such as mean square error ‘MSE’, peak signal to noise ratio ‘PSNR’ and compression ratio ‘CR’ that achieved (83.86%) when ‘coif3’ wavelet filter is used.

Keywords: DICOM, discrete wavelet transform, PACS, HIS, LAN

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Jan Kantelberg

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Due to the fugacity of markets and the reduction of product lifecycles, manufacturing companies from high-wage countries are nowadays faced with the challenge to place more innovative products within even shorter development time on the market. At the same time, volatile customer requirements have to be satisfied in order to successfully differentiate from market competitors. One potential approach to address the explained challenges is provided by agile values and principles. These agile values and principles already proofed their success within software development projects in the form of management frameworks like Scrum or concrete procedure models such as Extreme Programming or Crystal Clear. Those models lead to significant improvements regarding quality, costs and development time and are therefore used within most software development projects. Motivated by the success within the software industry, manufacturing companies have tried to transfer agile mechanisms of action to the development of hardware products ever since. Though first empirical studies show similar effects in the agile development of hardware products, no comprehensive procedure model for the design of development iterations has been developed for hardware development yet due to different constraints of the domains. For this reason, this paper focusses on the design of agile product development processes by transferring mechanisms of action used in agile software development towards product development. This is conducted by decomposing the individual systems 'product development' and 'agile software development' into relevant elements and symbiotically composing the elements of both systems in respect of the design of agile product development processes afterwards. In a first step, existing product development processes are described following existing approaches of the system theory. By analyzing existing case studies from industrial companies as well as academic approaches, characteristic objectives, activities and artefacts are identified within a target-, action- and object-system. In partial model two, mechanisms of action are derived from existing procedure models of agile software development. These mechanisms of action are classified in a superior strategy level, in a system level comprising characteristic, domain-independent activities and their cause-effect relationships as well as in an activity-based element level. Within partial model three, the influence of the identified agile mechanism of action towards the characteristic system elements of product development processes is analyzed. For this reason, target-, action- and object-system of the product development are compared with the strategy-, system- and element-level of agile mechanism of action by using the graph theory. Furthermore, the necessity of existence of activities within iteration can be determined by defining activity-specific degrees of freedom. Based on this analysis, agile product development processes are designed in form of different types of iterations within a last step. By defining iteration-differentiating characteristics and their interdependencies, a logic for the configuration of activities, their form of execution as well as relevant artefacts for the specific iteration is developed. Furthermore, characteristic types of iteration for the agile product development are identified.

Keywords: activity-based process model, agile mechanisms of action, agile product development, degrees of freedom

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Authors: Wei Xu, Abdo S. Haidar, Jianxin Gao

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Prosthetic socket is a component that connects the residual limb of an amputee with an artificial prosthesis. It is widely recognized as the most critical component that determines the comfort of a patient when wearing the prosthesis in his/her daily activities. Through the socket, the body weight and its associated dynamic load are distributed and transmitted to the prosthesis during walking, running or climbing. In order to achieve a good-fit socket for an individual amputee, it is essential to obtain the biomechanical properties of the residual limb. In current clinical practices, this is achieved by a touch-and-feel approach which is highly subjective. Although there have been significant advancements in prosthetic technologies such as microprocessor controlled knee and ankle joints in the last decade, the progress in designing a comfortable socket has been rather limited. This means that the current process of socket design is still very time-consuming, and highly dependent on the expertise of the prosthetist. Supported by the state-of-the-art sensor technologies and numerical simulations, a new socket design system is being developed to help prosthetists achieve rapid design of comfortable sockets for above knee amputees. This paper reports the research work related to establishing biomechanical models for socket design. Through numerical simulation using finite element method, comprehensive relationships between pressure on residual limb and socket geometry were established. This allowed local topological adjustment for the socket so as to optimize the pressure distributions across the residual limb. When the full body weight of a patient is exerted on the residual limb, high pressures and shear forces between the residual limb and the socket occur. During numerical simulations, various hyperplastic models, namely Ogden, Yeoh and Mooney-Rivlin, were used, and their effectiveness in representing the biomechanical properties of soft tissues of the residual limb was evaluated. This also involved reverse engineering, which resulted in an optimal representative model under compression test. To validate the simulation results, a range of silicone models were fabricated. They were tested by an indentation device which yielded the force-displacement relationships. Comparisons of results obtained from FEA simulations and experimental tests showed that the Ogden model did not fit well the soft tissue material indentation data, while the Yeoh model gave the best representation of the soft tissue mechanical behavior under indentation. Compared with hyperplastic model, the result showed that elastic model also had significant errors. In addition, normal and shear stress distributions on the surface of the soft tissue model were obtained. The effect of friction in compression testing and the influence of soft tissue stiffness and testing boundary conditions were also analyzed. All these have contributed to the overall goal of designing a good-fit socket for individual above knee amputees.

Keywords: above knee amputee, finite element simulation, hyperplastic model, prosthetic socket

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Authors: Sladjana Popovic

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The concept of vertical space urbanization, defined in English as "air rights development," can be considered a mechanism for the development of public spaces in urban areas of high density. A chronological overview of the transformation of space within the vertical projection of the existing traffic infrastructure that penetrates through the central areas of a city is given in this paper through the analysis of two illustrative case studies: more advanced and recent - "Plot 13" in Boston, and less well-known European example of structures erected above highways throughout Italy - the "Pavesi auto grill" chain. The backbone of this analysis is the examination of the possibility of yielding air rights within the vertical projection of public structures in the two examples by considering the factors that would enable its potential application in capitals in Southeastern Europe. The cession of air rights in the Southeastern Europe region, as a phenomenon, has not been a recognized practice in urban planning. In a formal sense, legal and physical feasibility can be seen to some extent in local models of structures built above protected historical heritage (i.e., archaeological sites); however, the mechanisms of the legal process of assigning the right to use and develop air rights above public structures is not a recognized concept. The goal of the analysis is to shed light on the influence of institutional participants in the implementation of innovative solutions for vertical urbanization, as well as strategic planning mechanisms in public-private partnership models that would enable the implementation of the concept in the region. The main question is whether the manipulation of the vertical projection of space could provide for innovative urban solutions that overcome the deficit and excessive use of the available construction land, particularly above the dominant public spaces and traffic infrastructure that penetrate central parts of a city. Conclusions reflect upon vertical urbanization that can bridge the spatial separation of the city, reduce noise pollution and contribute to more efficient urban planning along main transportation corridors.

Keywords: air rights development, innovative urbanism, public-private partnership, transport infrastructure, vertical urbanization

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Apurva Saxena, Sunita Gond

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Demand of computation, data storage in large amount are rapidly increases day by day. Cloud computing technology fulfill the demand of today’s computation but this will lead to high power consumption in cloud data centers. Initiative for Green IT try to reduce power consumption and its adverse environmental impacts. Paper also focus on various green computing techniques, proposed models and efficient way to make cloud greener.

Keywords: virtualization, cloud computing, green computing, data center

Procedia PDF Downloads 538

Authors: Asma Rebaya, Kaouther Gasmi, Imen Amari, Salem Hasnaoui

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Over these last years, applications such as telecommunications, signal processing, digital communication with advanced features (Multi-antenna, equalization..) witness a rapid evaluation accompanied with an increase of user exigencies in terms of latency, the power of computation… To satisfy these requirements, the use of hardware/software systems is a common solution; where hardware is composed of multi-cores and software is represented by models of computation, synchronous data flow (SDF) graph for instance. Otherwise, the most of the embedded system designers utilize Simulink for modeling. The issue is how to simplify the c code generation, for a multi-cores platform, of an application modeled by Simulink. To overcome this problem, we propose a workflow allowing an automatic transformation from the Simulink model to the SDF graph and providing an efficient schedule permitting to optimize the number of cores and to minimize latency. This workflow goes from a Simulink application and a hardware architecture described by IP.XACT language. Based on the synchronous and hierarchical behavior of both models, the Simulink block diagram is automatically transformed into an SDF graph. Once this process is successfully achieved, the scheduler calculates the optimal cores’ number needful by minimizing the maximum density of the whole application. Then, a core is chosen to execute a specific graph task in a specific order and, subsequently, a compatible C code is generated. In order to perform this proposal, we extend Preesm, a rapid prototyping tool, to take the Simulink model as entry input and to support the optimal schedule. Afterward, we compared our results to this tool results, using a simple illustrative application. The comparison shows that our results strictly dominate the Preesm results in terms of number of cores and latency. In fact, if Preesm needs m processors and latency L, our workflow need processors and latency L'< L.

Keywords: hardware/software system, latency, modeling, multi-cores platform, scheduler, SDF graph, Simulink model, workflow

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: Bandar A. Alkhayyal

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Modern supply chains are typically linear, transforming virgin raw materials into products for end consumers, who then discard them after use to landfills or incinerators. Nowadays, there are major efforts underway to create a circular economy to reduce non-renewable resource use and waste. One important aspect of these efforts is the development of Green Supply Chain (GSC) systems which enables a reverse flow of used products from consumers back to manufacturers, where they can be refurbished or remanufactured, to both economic and environmental benefit. This paper develops novel multi-objective optimization models to inform GSC system design at multiple levels: (1) strategic planning of facility location and transportation logistics; (2) tactical planning of optimal pricing; and (3) policy planning to account for potential valuation of GSC emissions. First, physical linear programming was applied to evaluate GSC facility placement by determining the quantities of end-of-life products for transport from candidate collection centers to remanufacturing facilities while satisfying cost and capacity criteria. Second, disassembly and remanufacturing processes have received little attention in industrial engineering and process cost modeling literature. The increasing scale of remanufacturing operations, worth nearly $50 billion annually in the United States alone, have made GSC pricing an important subject of research. A non-linear physical programming model for optimization of pricing policy for remanufactured products that maximizes total profit and minimizes product recovery costs were examined and solved. Finally, a deterministic equilibrium model was used to determine the effects of internalizing a cost of GSC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into optimization models. Changes in optimal facility use, transportation logistics, and pricing/profit margins were all investigated against a variable cost of carbon, using case study system created based on actual data from sites in the Boston area. As carbon costs increase, the optimal GSC system undergoes several distinct shifts in topology as it seeks new cost-minimal configurations. A comprehensive study of quantitative evaluation and performance of the model has been done using orthogonal arrays. Results were compared to top-down estimates from economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) models, to contrast remanufacturing GHG emission quantities with those from original equipment manufacturing operations. Introducing a carbon cost of $40/t CO2e increases modeled remanufacturing costs by 2.7% but also increases original equipment costs by 2.3%. The assembled work advances the theoretical modeling of optimal GSC systems and presents a rare case study of remanufactured appliances.

Keywords: circular economy, extended producer responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, industrial ecology, low carbon logistics, green supply chains

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Authors: Ese Urhie, Bosede Olopade, Muyiwa Oladosun, Henry Okodua

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In the past three and half decades, aside from the fact that the contribution of the industrial sector to gross domestic product in Nigeria has nose-dived, its performance has also been highly unstable. Investment funds needed to develop the industrial sector usually come from both internal and external sources. The internal sources include surplus generated within the industrial sector and surplus diverted from other sectors of the economy. It has been observed that due to the small size of the industrial sector in developing countries, very limited funds could be raised for further investment. External sources of funds which many currently industrialized and some ‘newly industrializing countries’ have benefited from including direct and indirect investment by foreign capitalists; foreign aid and loans; and investments by nationals living abroad. Foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria has been declining since 2009 in both absolute and relative terms. High level of human capital has been identified as one of the crucial factors that explain the miraculous growth of the ‘Asian Tigers’. Its low level has also been identified as the major cause for the low level of FDI flow to Nigeria in particular and Africa in general. There has been positive, but slow improvement in human capital indicators in Nigeria in the past three decades. In spite of this, foreign direct investment inflow has not only been low; it has declined drastically in recent years. i) Why has the improvement in human capital in Nigeria failed to attract more FDI inflow? ii) To what extent does the level of human capital influence FDI inflow in Nigeria? iii) Is there a threshold of human capital stock that guarantees sustained inflow of FDI? iv) Does the quality of human capital matter? v) Does the influence of other (negative) factors outweigh the benefits of human capital? Using time series secondary data, a system of equations is employed to evaluate the effect of human capital on FDI inflow in Nigeria on one hand and the effect of FDI on the level of industrialization on the other. A weak relationship between human capital and FDI is expected, while a strong relationship between FDI and industrial growth is expected from the result.

Keywords: human capital, foreign direct investment, industrialization, gross domestic product

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Authors: Yasamin Rahimi, Ali Kamandi, Abbas Hoseini, Hesam Haddad

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Online/offline chat is a convenient approach in the electronic markets of second-hand products in which potential customers would like to have more information about the products to fill the information gap between buyers and sellers. Online peer in peer market is trying to create artificial intelligence-based systems that help customers ask more informative questions in an easier way. In this article, we introduce a method for the question/answer system that we have developed for the top-ranked electronic market in Iran called Divar. When it comes to secondhand products, incomplete product information in a purchase will result in loss to the buyer. One way to balance buyer and seller information of a product is to help the buyer ask more informative questions when purchasing. Also, the short time to start and achieve the desired result of the conversation was one of our main goals, which was achieved according to A/B tests results. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a method for suggesting questions and answers in the messaging platform of the e-commerce website Divar. Creating such systems is to help users gather knowledge about the product easier and faster, All from the Divar database. We collected a dataset of around 2 million messages in Persian colloquial language, and for each category of product, we gathered 500K messages, of which only 2K were Tagged, and semi-supervised methods were used. In order to publish the proposed model to production, it is required to be fast enough to process 10 million messages daily on CPU processors. In order to reach that speed, in many subtasks, faster and simplistic models are preferred over deep neural models. The proposed method, which requires only a small amount of labeled data, is currently used in Divar production on CPU processors, and 15% of buyers and seller’s messages in conversations is directly chosen from our model output, and more than 27% of buyers have used this model suggestions in at least one daily conversation.

Keywords: smart reply, spell checker, information retrieval, intent detection, question answering

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Authors: Vijay Shankar

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In the era of water scarcity, effective use of water via irrigation requires good methods for determining crop water needs. Implementation of irrigation scheduling programs requires an accurate estimate of water use by the crop. Moisture depletion from the root zone represents the consequent crop evapotranspiration (ET). A numerical model for simulating soil water depletion in the root zone has been developed by taking into consideration soil physical properties, crop and climatic parameters. The governing differential equation for unsaturated flow of water in the soil is solved numerically using the fully implicit finite difference technique. The water uptake by plants is simulated by using three different sink functions. The non-linear model predictions are in good agreement with field data and thus it is possible to schedule irrigations more effectively. The present paper describes irrigation scheduling based on moisture depletion from the different layers of the root zone, obtained using different sink functions for three cash, oil and forage crops: cotton, safflower and barley, respectively. The soil is considered at a moisture level equal to field capacity prior to planting. Two soil moisture regimes are then imposed for irrigated treatment, one wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 50% of available soil water; and other wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 75% of available soil water. For both the soil moisture regimes it has been found that the model incorporating a non-linear sink function which provides best agreement of computed root zone moisture depletion with field data, is most effective in scheduling irrigations. Simulation runs with this moisture uptake function result in saving 27.3 to 45.5% & 18.7 to 37.5%, 12.5 to 25% % &16.7 to 33.3% and 16.7 to 33.3% & 20 to 40% irrigation water for cotton, safflower and barley respectively, under 50 & 75% moisture depletion regimes over other moisture uptake functions considered in the study. Simulation developed can be used for an optimized irrigation planning for different crops, choosing a suitable soil moisture regime depending upon the irrigation water availability and crop requirements.

Keywords: irrigation water, evapotranspiration, root uptake models, water scarcity

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Authors: Bartosz Kedra, Robert Malkowski

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This paper provides description and presentation of laboratory test unit built basing on 150 kVA power frequency converter and Simulink RealTime platform. Assumptions, based on criteria which load and generator types may be simulated using discussed device, are presented, as well as control algorithm structure. As laboratory setup contains transformer with thyristor controlled tap changer, a wider scope of setup capabilities is presented. Information about used communication interface, data maintenance, and storage solution as well as used Simulink real-time features is presented. List and description of all measurements are provided. Potential of laboratory setup modifications is evaluated. For purposes of Rapid Control Prototyping, a dedicated environment was used Simulink RealTime. Therefore, load model Functional Unit Controller is based on a PC computer with I/O cards and Simulink RealTime software. Simulink RealTime was used to create real-time applications directly from Simulink models. In the next step, applications were loaded on a target computer connected to physical devices that provided opportunity to perform Hardware in the Loop (HIL) tests, as well as the mentioned Rapid Control Prototyping process. With Simulink RealTime, Simulink models were extended with I/O cards driver blocks that made automatic generation of real-time applications and performing interactive or automated runs on a dedicated target computer equipped with a real-time kernel, multicore CPU, and I/O cards possible. Results of performed laboratory tests are presented. Different load configurations are described and experimental results are presented. This includes simulation of under frequency load shedding, frequency and voltage dependent characteristics of groups of load units, time characteristics of group of different load units in a chosen area and arbitrary active and reactive power regulation basing on defined schedule.

Keywords: MATLAB, power converter, Simulink Real-Time, thyristor-controlled tap changer

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Authors: Mohamed Moustafa Mahmoud Sedky

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The double-fed induction generator wind turbine has recently received a great attention. The steady state performance and response of double fed induction generator (DFIG) based wind turbine are now well understood. This paper presents the analysis of stator and rotor flux linkage dq models operation of DFIG under different faults and at different locations.

Keywords: double fed induction motor, wind energy, flux linkage, short circuit

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Authors: A. Kalaei, A. H. W. Ngan

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In this study, a mesoscopic continuum dislocation dynamics (CDD) approach is applied to simulate the intergranular slip transfer. The CDD scheme applies an efficient kinematics equation to model the evolution of the “all-dislocation density,” which is the line-length of dislocations of each character per unit volume. As the consideration of every dislocation line can be a limiter for the simulation of slip transfer in large scales with a large quantity of participating dislocations, a coarse-grained, extensive description of dislocations in terms of their density is utilized to resolve the effect of collective motion of dislocation lines. For dynamics closure, namely, to obtain the dislocation velocity from a velocity law involving the effective glide stress, mutual elastic interaction of dislocations is calculated using Mura’s equation after singularity removal at the core of dislocation lines. The developed scheme for slip transfer can therefore resolve the effects of the elastic interaction and pile-up of dislocations, which are important physics omitted in coarser models like crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEMs). Also, the length and timescales of the simulationareconsiderably larger than those in molecular dynamics (MD) and discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) models. The present work successfully simulates that, as dislocation density piles up in front of a grain boundary, the elastic stress on the other side increases, leading to dislocation nucleation and stress relaxation when the local glide stress exceeds the operation stress of dislocation sources seeded on the other side of the grain boundary. More importantly, the simulation verifiesa phenomenological misorientation factor often used by experimentalists, namely, the ease of slip transfer increases with the product of the cosines of misorientation angles of slip-plane normals and slip directions on either side of the grain boundary. Furthermore, to investigate the effects of the critical stress-intensity factor of the grain boundary, dislocation density sources are seeded at different distances from the grain boundary, and the critical applied stress to make slip transfer happen is studied.

Keywords: grain boundary, dislocation dynamics, slip transfer, elastic stress

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Authors: Inese Trusina, Elita Jermolajeva, Viktors Gopejenko, Viktor Abramov

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Global challenges require a transition from the existing linear economic model to a model that will consider nature as a life support system for the development of the way to social well-being in the frame of the ecological economics paradigm. The objective of the article is to present the results of the analysis of socio-economic systems in the context of sustainable development using the systems power (energy flows) changes analyzing method and structural Kaldor's model of GDP. In accordance with the principles of life's development and the ecological concept was formalized the tasks of sustainable development of the open, non-equilibrium, stable socio-economic systems were formalized using the energy flows analysis method. The methodology of monitoring sustainable development and level of life were considered during the research of interactions in the system ‘human - society - nature’ and using the theory of a unified system of space-time measurements. Based on the results of the analysis, the time series consumption energy and economic structural model were formulated for the level, degree and tendencies of sustainable development of the system and formalized the conditions of growth, degrowth and stationarity. In order to design the future state of socio-economic systems, a concept was formulated, and the first models of energy flows in systems were created using the tools of system dynamics. During the research, the authors calculated and used a system of universal indicators of sustainable development in the invariant coordinate system in energy units. In order to design the future state of socio-economic systems, a concept was formulated, and the first models of energy flows in systems were created using the tools of system dynamics. In the context of the proposed approach and methods, universal sustainable development indicators were calculated as models of development for the USA and China. The calculations used data from the World Bank database for the period from 1960 to 2019. Main results: 1) In accordance with the proposed approach, the heterogeneous energy resources of countries were reduced to universal power units, summarized and expressed as a unified number. 2) The values of universal indicators of the life’s level were obtained and compared with generally accepted similar indicators.3) The system of indicators in accordance with the requirements of sustainable development can be considered as a basis for monitoring development trends. This work can make a significant contribution to overcoming the difficulties of forming socio-economic policy, which is largely due to the lack of information that allows one to have an idea of the course and trends of socio-economic processes. The existing methods for the monitoring of the change do not fully meet this requirement since indicators have different units of measurement from different areas and, as a rule, are the reaction of socio-economic systems to actions already taken and, moreover, with a time shift. Currently, the inconsistency or inconsistency of measures of heterogeneous social, economic, environmental, and other systems is the reason that social systems are managed in isolation from the general laws of living systems, which can ultimately lead to a systemic crisis.

Keywords: sustainability, system dynamic, power, energy flows, development

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Authors: Bharati Mehta, Manish Parakh, Bharti Bhandari, Sneha Ambwani

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Speech and language delay (SLD) is seen commonly as a co-morbidity in children having severe resistant focal and generalized, syndromic and symptomatic epilepsies. It is however not clear whether epilepsy contributes to or is a mere association in the pathogenesis of SLD. Also, it is acknowledged that Auditory Brainstem Evoked Responses (ABER), besides used for evaluating hearing threshold, also aid in prognostication of neurological disorders and abnormalities in the hearing pathway in the brainstem. There is no circumscribed or surrogate neurophysiologic laboratory marker to adjudge the extent of SLD. The current study was designed to evaluate the abnormalities in Electroencephalography (EEG) and ABER in children with SLD who do not have an overt hearing deficit or autism. 94 children of age group 2-8 years with predominant SLD and without any gross motor developmental delay, head injury, gross hearing disorder, cleft lip/palate and autism were selected. Standard video Electroencephalography using the 10:20 international system and ABER after click stimulus with intensities 110 db until 40 db was performed in all children. EEG was abnormal in 47.9% (n= 45; 36 boys and 9 girls) children. In the children with abnormal EEG, 64.5% (n=29) had an abnormal background, 57.8% (n=27) had presence of generalized interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs), 20% (n=9) had focal epileptiform discharges exclusively from left side and 33.3% (n=15) had multifocal IEDs occurring both in isolation or associated with generalised abnormalities. In ABER, surprisingly, the peak latencies for waves I, III & V, inter-peak latencies I-III & I-V, III-V and wave amplitude ratio V/I, were found within normal limits in both ears of all the children. Thus in the current study it is certain that presence of generalized IEDs in EEG are seen in higher frequency with SLD and focal IEDs are seen exclusively in left hemisphere in these children. It may be possible that even with generalized EEG abnormalities present in these children, left hemispheric abnormalities as a part of this generalized dysfunction may be responsible for the speech and language dysfunction. The current study also emphasizes that ABER may not be routinely recommended as diagnostic or prognostic tool in children with SLD without frank hearing deficit or autism, thus reducing the burden on electro physiologists, laboratories and saving time and financial resources.

Keywords: ABER, EEG, speech, language delay

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Authors: Kenichi Yamahara, Makiko Ohshima, Shunsuke Ohnishi, Hidetoshi Tsuda, Akihiko Taguchi, Toshihiro Soma, Hiroyasu Ogawa, Jun Yoshimatsu, Tomoaki Ikeda

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We have previously reported the therapeutic potential of rat fetal membrane(FM)-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) using various rat models including hindlimb ischemia, autoimmune myocarditis, glomerulonephritis, renal ischemia-reperfusion injury, and myocardial infarction. In this study, 1) we isolated and characterized MSCs from human amnion and chorion; 2) we examined their differences in the expression profile of growth factors and cytokines; and 3) we investigated the therapeutic potential and difference of these MSCs using murine hindlimb ischemia and acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) models. Isolated MSCs from both amnion and chorion layers of FM showed similar morphological appearance, multipotency, and cell-surface antigen expression. Conditioned media obtained from amnion- and chorion-derived MSCs inhibited cell death caused by serum starvation or hypoxia in endothelial cells and cardiomyocytes. Amnion and chorion MSCs secreted significant amounts of angiogenic factors including HGF, IGF-1, VEGF, and bFGF, although differences in the cellular expression profile of these soluble factors were observed. Transplantation of human amnion or chorion MSCs significantly increased blood flow and capillary density in a murine hindlimb ischemia model. In addition, compared to human chorion MSCs, human amnion MSCs markedly reduced T-lymphocyte proliferation with the enhanced secretion of PGE2, and improved the pathological situation of a mouse model of GVHD disease. Our results highlight that human amnionand chorion-derived MSCs, which showed differences in their soluble factor secretion and angiogenic/immuno-suppressive function, could be ideal cell sources for regenerative medicine.

Keywords: amnion, chorion, fetal membrane, mesenchymal stem cells

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Authors: Maxime Moreau, Silvère Baron, Jean-Marc Lobaccaro, Karine Charlet, Sébastien Menecier, Frédéric Perisse

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Cold Atmospheric Plasma (CAP) is an ionized gas generated at atmospheric pressure with the temperature of heavy particles (molecules, ions, atoms) close to the room temperature. Recent studies have shown that both in-vitro and in-vivo plasma exposition to many cancer cell lines are efficient to induce the apoptotic way of cell death. In some other works, normal cell lines seem to be less impacted by plasma than cancer cell lines. This is called selectivity of plasma. It is highly likely that the generated RNOS (Reactive Nitrogen Oxygen Species) in the plasma jet, but also in the medium, play a key-role in this selectivity. In this study, two CAP devices will be compared to electrical power, chemical species composition and their efficiency to kill cancer cells. A particular focus on the action of hydrogen peroxide will be made. The experiments will take place as described next for both devices: electrical and spectroscopic characterization for different voltages, plasma treatment of normal and cancer cells to compare the CAP efficiency between cell lines and to show that death is induced by an oxidative stress. To enlighten the importance of hydrogen peroxide, an inhibitor of H2O2 will be added in cell culture medium before treatment and a comparison will be made between the results of cell viability in this case and those from a simple plasma exposition. Besides, H2O2 production will be measured by only treating medium with plasma. Cell lines will also be exposed to different concentrations of hydrogen peroxide in order to characterize the cytotoxic threshold for cells and to make a comparison with the quantity of H2O2 produced by CAP devices. Finally, the activity of catalase for different cell lines will be quantified. This enzyme is an important antioxidant agent against hydrogen peroxide. A correlation between cells response to plasma exposition and this activity could be a strong argument in favor of the predominant role of H2O2 to explain the selectivity of plasma cancer treatment by cold atmospheric plasma.

Keywords: cold atmospheric plasma, hydrogen peroxide, prostate cancer, selectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Adriano Losso, Birgit Dämon, Stefan Mayr

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In vascular plants, water flows from roots to leaves in a metastable state, and even a small perturbation of the system can lead a sudden transition from the liquid to the vapor phase, resulting in xylem embolism (cavitation). Xylem embolism, induced by drought stress and/or freezing stress is caused by the aspiration of gaseous bubbles into xylem conduits from adjacent gas-filled compartments through pit membrane pores (‘air seeding’). At water potentials less negative than the threshold for air seeding, the surface tension (γ) stabilizes the air-water interface and thus prevents air from passing the pit pores. This hold is probably also true for conifers, where this effect occurs at the edge of the sealed torus. Accordingly, it was experimentally demonstrated that γ influences air seeding, but information on the relevance of this effect under field conditions is missing. In this study, we analyzed seasonal changes in γ of the xylem sap in two conifers growing at the alpine timberline (Picea abies and Pinus mugo). In addition, cut branches were perfused (40 min perfusion at 0.004 MPa) with different γ solutions (i.e. distilled and degassed water, 2, 5 and 15% (v/v) ethanol-water solution corresponding to a γ of 74, 65, 55 and 45 mN m-1, respectively) and their vulnerability to drought-induced embolism analyzed via the centrifuge technique (Cavitron). In both species, xylem sap γ changed considerably (ca. 53-67 and ca. 50-68 mN m-1 in P. abies and P. cembra, respectively) over the season. Branches perfused with low γ solutions showed reduced resistance against drought-induced embolism in both species. A significant linear relationship (P < 0.001) between P12, P50 and P88 (i.e. water potential at 12, 50 and 88% of the loss of conductivity) and xylem sap γ was found. Based on this correlation, a variation in P50 between -3.10 and -3.83 MPa (P. abies) and between -3.21 and -4.11 MPa (P. mugo) over the season could be estimated. Results demonstrate that changes in γ of the xylem sap can considerably influence a tree´s resistance to drought-induced embolism. They indicate that vulnerability analyses, normally conducted at a γ near that of pure water, might often underestimate vulnerabilities under field conditions. For studied timberline conifers, seasonal changes in γ might be especially relevant in winter, when frost drought and freezing stress can lead to an excessive embolism.

Keywords: conifers, Picea abies, Pinus mugo, timberline

Procedia PDF Downloads 278