Search results for: cloud service models

Authors: Adriano Araujo Carvalho, Arturo Alatrista Corrales

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This paper intends to show how electrical energy consumption and production data analysis were used to find opportunities to save energy at Taboada wastewater treatment plant in Callao, Peru. In order to access the data, it was used independent data networks for both electrical and process instruments, which were taken to analyze under an ISO 50001 energy audit, which considered, thus, Energy Performance Indexes for each process and a step-by-step guide presented in this text. Due to the use of aforementioned methodology and data mining techniques applied on information gathered through electronic multimeters (conveniently placed on substation switchboards connected to a cloud network), it was possible to identify thoroughly the performance of each process and thus, evidence saving opportunities which were previously hidden before. The data analysis brought both costs and energy reduction, allowing the plant to save significant resources and to be certified under ISO 50001.

Keywords: energy and production data analysis, energy management, ISO 50001, wastewater treatment plant energy analysis

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Authors: Zakaria Baka, Halima Alem

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Cancer is a major worldwide health problem that has caused around ten million deaths in 2020. In addition, efforts to develop new anti-cancer drugs still face a high failure rate. This is partly due to the lack of preclinical models that recapitulate in-vivo drug responses. Indeed conventional cell culture approach (known as 2D cell culture) is far from reproducing the complex, dynamic and three-dimensional environment of tumors. To set up more in-vivo-like cancer models, 3D bioprinting seems to be a promising technology due to its ability to achieve 3D scaffolds containing different cell types with controlled distribution and precise architecture. Moreover, the introduction of microfluidic technology makes it possible to simulate in-vivo dynamic conditions through the so-called “cancer-on-chip” platforms. Whereas several cancer types have been modeled through the cancer-on-chip approach, such as lung cancer and breast cancer, only a few works describing ovarian cancer models have been described. The aim of this work is to combine 3D bioprinting and microfluidic technics with setting up a 3D dynamic model of ovarian cancer. In the first phase, alginate-gelatin hydrogel containing SKOV3 cells was used to achieve tumor-like structures through an extrusion-based bioprinter. The desired form of the tumor-like mass was first designed on 3D CAD software. The hydrogel composition was then optimized for ensuring good and reproducible printability. Cell viability in the bioprinted structures was assessed using Live/Dead assay and WST1 assay. In the second phase, these bioprinted structures will be included in a microfluidic device that allows simultaneous testing of different drug concentrations. This microfluidic dispositive was first designed through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for fixing its precise dimensions. It was then be manufactured through a molding method based on a 3D printed template. To confirm the results of CFD simulations, doxorubicin (DOX) solutions were perfused through the dispositive and DOX concentration in each culture chamber was determined. Once completely characterized, this model will be used to assess the efficacy of anti-cancer nanoparticles developed in the Jean Lamour institute.

Keywords: 3D bioprinting, ovarian cancer, cancer-on-chip models, microfluidic techniques

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Authors: Tony Mann

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This paper sets out the case for involving and engaging employees/workers/stakeholders/staff in any significant change that is being considered by the senior executives of the organization. It establishes the rationale, the approach, the methodology of engagement and the benefits of a participative approach. It challenges the new norm of imposing change for fear of resistance and instead suggests that involving people has better outcomes and a longer-lasting impact. Various strategic models are introduced and illustrated to explain how the process can be most effective. The paper highlights one model in particular (the Process Iceberg® Organizational Change model) that has proven to be instrumental in developing effective change. Its use is demonstrated in its various forms and explains why so much change fails to address the key elements and how we can be more productive in managing change. ‘Participation’ in change is too often seen as negative, expensive and unwieldy. The paper aims to show that another model: UIA=O+E, can offset the difficulties and, in fact, produce much more positive and effective change.

Keywords: facilitation, stakeholders, buy-in, digital workshops

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Authors: Nikolaos Georgoulopoulos, Alkis Hatzopoulos, Konstantinos Karamitsios, Konstantinos Kotrotsios, Alexandros I. Metsai

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In modern server systems, business critical applications run in different types of infrastructure, such as cloud systems, physical machines and virtualization. Often, due to high load and over time, various hardware faults occur in servers that translate to errors, resulting to malfunction or even server breakdown. CPU, RAM and hard drive (HDD) are the hardware parts that concern server administrators the most regarding errors. In this work, selected RAM, HDD and CPU errors, that have been observed or can be simulated in kernel ring buffer log files from two groups of Linux servers, are investigated. Moreover, a severity characterization is given for each error type. Better understanding of such errors can lead to more efficient analysis of kernel logs that are usually exploited for fault diagnosis and prediction. In addition, this work summarizes ways of simulating hardware errors in RAM and HDD, in order to test the error detection and correction mechanisms of a Linux server.

Keywords: hardware errors, Kernel logs, Linux servers, RAM, hard disk, CPU

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Authors: Galit Harel

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This article describes the long-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy of a young woman who had experienced trauma during her childhood. The details of the trauma were unknown, as all memory of the trauma had been repressed. Past trauma is analyzable through a prism of transference, dreaming and dreams, mental states, and thinking processes that offer an opportunity to explore and analyze the influence of both reality and fantasy on the patient. The presented case describes a therapeutic process that strives to discover hidden meanings through the unconscious system and illustrates the movement from unconscious to conscious during exploration of the patient’s personal trauma in treatment. The author discusses the importance of classical and contemporary psychoanalytic models of childhood sexual trauma through the discovery of manifest and latent content, unconscious fantasies, and actual events of trauma. It is suggested that the complexity of trauma is clarified by the tension between these models and by the inclusion of aspects of both of them for a complete understanding.

Keywords: dreams, psychoanalytic psychotherapy, thinking processes, transference, trauma

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Margarita Mayoral-Villa, J. Klapp, L. Di G. Sigalotti, J. E. V. Guzmán

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Automated learning techniques are widely applied in the energy sector to address challenging problems from a practical point of view. To this end, we discuss the implementation of a Message Passing algorithm (MPNN)within a Graph Neural Network(GNN)to leverage the neighborhood of a set of nodes during the aggregation process. This approach enables the characterization of multiphase diffusion processes in the reservoir, such that the flow paths underlying the interconnections between multiple wells may be inferred from previously available data on flow rates and bottomhole pressures. The results thus obtained compare favorably with the predictions produced by the Reduced Order Capacitance-Resistance Models (CRM) and suggest the potential of MPNNs to enhance the robustness of the forecasts while improving the computational efficiency.

Keywords: multiphase diffusion, message passing neural network, well interconnection, interwell connectivity, graph neural network, capacitance-resistance models

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Authors: Niveen M. Hassan-Abbas

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The COVID-19 pandemic created a range of stressors, among them difficulties related to work conditions, financial changes, lack of childcare, and confinement or isolation due to social distancing. Among families and married individuals, these stressors were often expressed in additional daily hassles, with an influence on mental health. This study examined two moderated mediation models based on Bodenmann’s systemic-transactional stress model. Specifically, the models tested the hypothesis that intra-dyadic stress mediates the association between extra-dyadic stress and mental health, while two measures of family functioning, cohesion, and flexibility, moderate the relationship between extra and intra-dyadic stress. Participants were 480 heterosexual married Palestinians from Israel who completed self-report questionnaires. The results showed partial mediation patterns supporting both models, indicating that family cohesion and flexibility weakened the mediating effect of intra-dyadic stress on the relationship between extra-dyadic stress and mental health. These findings increase our understanding of the variables that affected mental health during the pandemic and suggested that when faced with extra-dyadic stress, married individuals with good family environments are less likely to experience high levels of intra-dyadic stress, which is in turn associated with preserved mental health. Limitations and implications for planning interventions for couples and families during the pandemic are discussed.

Keywords: Palestinian families in Israel, COVID-19 pandemic, family cohesion and flexibility, extra-dyadic stress, intra-dyadic stress, mental health

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Authors: Donatello Cardone

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Bilinear hysteresis models are usually used to describe the cyclic behavior of high damping rubber bearings. However, they neglect a number of phenomena (such as the interaction between axial load and shear force, buckling and post-buckling behavior, cavitation, scragging effects, etc.) that can significantly influence the dynamic behavior of such isolation devices. In this work, an advanced hysteresis model is examined and properly calibrated using consolidated procedures. Results of preliminary numerical analyses, performed in OpenSees, are shown and compared with the results of experimental tests on high damping rubber bearings and simulation analyses using alternative nonlinear models. The findings of this study can provide an useful tool for the accurate evaluation of the seismic response of structures with rubber-based isolation systems.

Keywords: seismic isolation, high damping rubber bearings, numerical modeling, axial-shear force interaction

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Authors: Ibe Perpetual Nwakaego

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The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), were an integrated project formed to eradicate many unnatural situations the citizens of the third world country may found themselves in. The MDGs, to be a sustainable project for the future depends 100% on the actions of governments, multilateral institutions and civil society. This paper first looks at the political views on the MDGs and relates it to the current electoral situations around the country by underlining the drastic changes over the few months. The second part of the paper presents ICT in tertiary institutions as one of the solutions in terms of the success of the MDGs. ICT is vital in all phases of the educational process and development of the cloud connectivity is an added advantage of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for sharing a common data bank for research purposes among UNICEF, RED CROSS, NPS, INEC, NMIC, and WHO. Finally, the paper concludes with areas that need twigging and recommendations for the tertiary institutions committed to delivering an ambitious set of goals. A combination of observation and document materials for data gathering was employed as the methodology for carrying out this research.

Keywords: MDGs, ICT, database, politics

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Authors: Paola Montenegro, Maria de los Angeles Balaguera Villa

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In February 2022 Colombia achieved a historic milestone in ensuring universal access to abortion rights with ruling C-055 of 2022 decriminalising abortion up to 24 weeks of gestation. In the context of this triumph and the expansion of telemedicine services in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research studied the acceptability of self-care abortion in young people (13 - 28 years) through a telemedicine service and also explored the primary needs that should be the focus of such care. The results shine light on a more comprehensive understanding of opportunities and challenges of teleabortion practices in a context that combines overall higher access to technology and low access to reliable information of safe abortion, stigma, and scarcity especially felt by transnational migrants, racialised people, trans men and non-binary people. Through a mixed methods approach, this study collected 5.736 responses to a virtual survey disseminated nationwide in Colombia and 47 in-person interviews (24 of them with people who were assigned female at birth and 21 with local key stakeholders in the abortion ecosystem). Quantitative data was analyzed using Stata SE Version 16.0 and qualitative analysis was completed through NVivo using thematic analysis. Key findings of the research suggest that self-care abortion is practice with growing acceptability among young people, but important adjustments must be made to meet quality of care expectations of users. Elements like quick responses from providers, lower costs, and accessible information were defined by users as decisive factors to choose over the abortion service provider. In general, the narratives in participants about quality care were centred on the promotion of autonomy and the provision of accompaniment and care practices, also perceived as transformative and currently absent of most health care services. The most staggering findings from the investigation are related to current barriers faced by young people in abortion contexts even when the legal barriers have: high rates of scepticism and distrust associated with pitfalls of telehealth and structural challenges associated with lacking communications infrastructure, among a few of them. Other important barriers to safe self-care abortion identified by participants surfaced like lack of privacy and confidentiality (especially in rural areas of the country), difficulties accessing reliable information, high costs of procedures and expenses related to travel costs or having to cease economic activities, waiting times, and stigma are among the primary barriers to abortion identified by participants. Especially in a scenario marked by unprecedented social, political and economic disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the commitment to design better care services that can be adapted to the identities, experiences, social contexts and possibilities of the user population is more necessary than ever. In this sense, the possibility of expanding access to services through telemedicine brings us closer to the opportunity to rethink the role of health care models in transforming the role of individuals and communities to make autonomous, safe and informed decisions about their own health and well-being.

Keywords: contraception, family planning, premarital fertility, unplanned pregnancy

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Authors: Kun Xue, Lvlan Miu, Jiarui Li

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Jetting structures are widely found in particle rings or shells dispersed by the central explosion. In contrast, some explosive dispersal of particles only results in a dispersed cloud without distinctive structures. Employing the coupling method of the compressible computational fluid mechanics and discrete element method (CCFD-DEM), we reveal the underlying physics governing the formation of the jetting structure, which is related to the competition between the shock compaction and gas infiltration, two major processes during the shock interaction with the granular media. If the shock compaction exceeds the gas infiltration, the discernable jetting structures are expected, precipitated by the agglomerates of fast-moving particles induced by the heterogenous network of force chains. Otherwise, particles are uniformly accelerated by the interstitial flows, and no distinguishable jetting structures are formed. We proceed to devise the phase map of the jetting formation in the space defined by two dimensionless parameters which characterize the timescales of the shock compaction and the gas infiltration, respectively.

Keywords: compressible multiphase flows, DEM, granular jetting, pattern formation

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Authors: S. Jigna, K. Nanda Kumar, T. Anna

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Being a major contributor to the Indian economy and a critical facilitator for the country’s digital India vision, the Indian telecommunications industry is also a major source of employment for the country. Since the last few years, the Indian telecommunication service providers (TSPs), however, are facing business challenges related to increasing competition, losses, debts, and decreasing revenue. The strategic use of digital technologies for a successful digital transformation has the potential to equip organizations to meet these business challenges. Despite an increased focus on digital transformation, the telecom service providers globally, including Indian TSPs, have seen limited success so far. The purpose of this research was thus to identify the factors that are critical for the digital transformation and to what extent they influence the successful digital transformation of the Indian TSPs. The literature review of more than 300 digital transformation-related articles, mostly from 2013-2019, demonstrated a lack of an empirical model consisting of factors for the successful digital transformation of the TSPs. This study theorizes a research framework grounded in multiple theories, and a research model consisting of 7 constructs that may be influencing business success during the digital transformation of the organization was proposed. The questionnaire survey of senior managers in the Indian telecommunications industry was seeking to validate the research model. Based on 294 survey responses, the validation of the Structural equation model using the statistical tool ADANCO 2.1.1 was found to be robust. Results indicate that Digital Capabilities, Digital Strategy, and Corporate Level Data Strategy in that order has a strong influence on the successful Business Performance, followed by IT Function Transformation, Digital Innovation, and Transformation Management respectively. Even though Digital Organization did not have a direct significance on Business Performance outcomes, it had a strong influence on IT Function Transformation, thus affecting the Business Performance outcomes indirectly. Amongst numerous practical and theoretical contributions of the study, the main contribution for the Indian TSPs is a validated reference for prioritizing the transformation initiatives in their strategic roadmap. Also, the main contribution to the theory is the possibility to use the research framework artifact of the present research for quantitative validation in different industries and geographies.

Keywords: corporate level data strategy, digital capabilities, digital innovation, digital strategy

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Abhishek Raghuvanshi, Suyash Kumar Singh

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As IoT networks gain popularity, they are more susceptible to security breaches. As a result, it is crucial to analyze the IoT platform as a whole from the standpoint of core security concepts. The Internet of Things relies heavily on wireless networks, which are well-known for being susceptible to a wide variety of attacks. This article provides an analysis of many techniques that may be used to identify vulnerabilities in the software and hardware associated with the Internet of Things (IoT). In the current investigation, an experimental setup is built with the assistance of server computers, client PCs, Internet of Things development boards, sensors, and cloud subscriptions. Through the use of network host scanning methods and vulnerability scanning tools, raw data relating to IoT-based applications and devices may be collected. Shodan is a tool that is used for scanning, and it is also used for effective vulnerability discovery in IoT devices as well as penetration testing. This article presents an efficient mitigation plan for encountering vulnerabilities in the Internet of Things.

Keywords: internet of things, security, privacy, vulnerability identification, mitigation plan

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Authors: Carolina Silva Ansélmo

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Airports are demand-generating poles that affect the flow of traffic around them. The airport access system must be fast, convenient, and adequately planned, considering its potential users. An airport with good ground access conditions can provide the user with a more satisfactory access experience. When several transport options are available, service providers must understand users' preferences and the expected quality of service. The present study focuses on airport access in a comparative scenario between bus, private vehicle, subway, taxi and urban mobility transport applications to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. The objectives are (i) to identify the factors that influence the choice, (ii) to measure Willingness to Pay (WTP), and (iii) to estimate the market share for each modal. The applied method was Adaptive Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (ACBC) technique using Sawtooth Software. Conjoint analysis, rooted in Utility Theory, is a survey technique that quantifies the customer's perceived utility when choosing alternatives. Assessing user preferences provides insights into their priorities for product or service attributes. An additional advantage of conjoint analysis is its requirement for a smaller sample size compared to other methods. Furthermore, ACBC provides valuable insights into consumers' preferences, willingness to pay, and market dynamics, aiding strategic decision-making to provide a better customer experience, pricing, and market segmentation. In the present research, the ACBC questionnaire had the following variables: (i) access time to the boarding point, (ii) comfort in the vehicle, (iii) number of travelers together, (iv) price, (v) supply power, and (vi) type of vehicle. The case study questionnaire reached 213 valid responses considering the scenario of access from the São Paulo city center to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. As a result, the price and the number of travelers are the most relevant attributes for the sample when choosing airport access. The market share of the selection is mainly urban mobility transport applications, followed by buses, private vehicles, taxis and subways.

Keywords: adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis, ground access to airport, market share, willingness to pay

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Authors: Amritpal Slaich, Mark Elshaw

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This paper explores the development of a decision support framework for the introduction of business intelligence (BI) through operational research techniques for application by SMEs. Aligned with the goals of the new Midlands Enterprise Initiative of improving the skill levels of the Midlands workforce and addressing high levels of regional unemployment, we have developed a framework to increase the level of business intelligence used by SMEs to improve business decision-making. Many SMEs in the Midlands fail due to the lack of high quality decision making. Our framework outlines how universities can: engage with SMEs in the use of BI through operational research techniques; develop appropriate and easy to use Excel spreadsheet models; and make use of a process to allow SMEs to feedback their findings of the models. Future work will determine how well the framework performs in getting SMEs to apply BI to improve their decision-making performance.

Keywords: SMEs, decision support framework, business intelligence, operational research techniques

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Authors: Reza Moslemi, Sebastien Perrier

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Water infrastructure deterioration can result in increased operational costs owing to increased repair needs and non-revenue water and consequently cause a reduced level of service and customer service satisfaction. Various water main condition assessment technologies have been introduced to the market in order to evaluate the level of pipe deterioration and to develop appropriate asset management and pipe renewal plans. One of the challenges for any condition assessment and inspection program is to determine the percentage of the water network and the combination of pipe segments to be inspected in order to obtain a meaningful representation of the status of the entire water network with a desirable level of accuracy. Traditionally, condition assessment has been conducted by selecting pipes based on age or location. However, this may not necessarily offer the best approach, and it is believed that by using a smart sampling methodology, a better and more reliable estimate of the condition of a water network can be achieved. This research investigates three different sampling methodologies, including random, stratified, and systematic. It is demonstrated that selecting pipes based on the proposed clustering and sampling scheme can considerably improve the ability of the inspected subset to represent the condition of a wider network. With a smart sampling methodology, a smaller data sample can provide the same insight as a larger sample. This methodology offers increased efficiency and cost savings for condition assessment processes and projects.

Keywords: condition assessment, pipe degradation, sampling, water main

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain

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Authors: B. Schmid, C. Kexel, E. Djafarova

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Understanding consumers is elementary for practitioners in marketing. Consumers of sports events, the sports spectators, are a particularly complex consumer crowd. In order to identify and define their profiles different segmentation approaches can be found in literature, one of them being multidimensional segmentation. Multidimensional segmentation models correspond to the broad range of attitudes, behaviours, motivations and beliefs of sports spectators, other than earlier models. Moreover, in sports there are some well-researched disciplines (e.g. football or North American sports) where consumer profiles and marketing strategies are elaborate and others where no research at all can be found. For example, there is almost no research on athletics spectators. This paper explores the current state of research on sports spectators segmentation. An in-depth literature review provides the framework for a spectators segmentation in athletics. On this basis, additional potential consumer groups and implications for social media marketing will be explored. The findings are the basis for further research.

Keywords: multidimensional segmentation, social media, sports marketing, sports spectators segmentation

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Authors: Micheal Olaolu Arowolo, Muhammad Azam, Fei He, Mihail Popescu, Dong Xu

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As the quantity of biological articles rises, so does the number of biological route figures. Each route figure shows gene names and relationships. Annotating pathway diagrams manually is time-consuming. Advanced image understanding models could speed up curation, but they must be more precise. There is rich information in biological pathway figures. The first step to performing image understanding of these figures is to recognize gene names automatically. Classical optical character recognition methods have been employed for gene name recognition, but they are not optimized for literature mining data. This study devised a method to recognize an image bounding box of gene name as a photo using deep Siamese neural network models to outperform the existing methods using ResNet, DenseNet and Inception architectures, the results obtained about 84% accuracy.

Keywords: biological pathway, gene identification, object detection, Siamese network

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Authors: R. Pravin Kumar, L. Roopa

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Enzymes are molecular machines used in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food and animal feed, paper and leather processing, biofuel, and etc. Nevertheless, this has been possible only by the breath-taking efforts of the chemists and biologists to evolve/engineer these mysterious biomolecules to work the needful. Main agenda of this enzyme engineering project is to derive screening and selection tools to obtain focused libraries of enzyme variants with desired qualities. The methodologies for this research include the well-established directed evolution, rational redesign and relatively less established yet much faster and accurate insilico methods. This concept was initiated as a Receptor Rependent-4Dimensional Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (RD-4D-QSAR) to predict kinetic properties of enzymes and extended here to study transaminase by a 7D QSAR approach. Induced-fit scenarios were explored using Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics (QM/MM) simulations which were then placed in a grid that stores interactions energies derived from QM parameters (QMgrid). In this study, the mutated enzymes were immersed completely inside the QMgrid and this was combined with solvation models to predict descriptors. After statistical screening of descriptors, QSAR models showed > 90% specificity and > 85% sensitivity towards the experimental activity. Mapping descriptors on the enzyme structure revealed hotspots important to enhance the enantioselectivity of the enzyme.

Keywords: QMgrid, QM/MM simulations, RD-4D-QSAR, transaminase

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Authors: Levent Basayigit, Mert Dedeoglu, Fadime Ozogul

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In this study, an application was carried out to determine the Volcanic Soils by using remote sensing.  The study area was located on the Golcuk formation in Isparta-Turkey. The thermal bands of Landsat 7 image were used for processing. The implementation of the climate model that was based on the water index was used in ERDAS Imagine software together with pixel based image classification. Soil Moisture Index (SMI) was modeled by using the surface temperature (Ts) which was obtained from thermal bands and vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 7. Surface moisture values were grouped and classified by using scoring system. Thematic layers were compared together with the field studies. Consequently, different moisture levels for volcanic soils were indicator for determination and separation. Those thermal wavelengths are preferable bands for separation of volcanic soils using moisture and temperature models.

Keywords: Landsat 7, soil moisture index, temperature models, volcanic soils

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Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Rob van den Dam

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Today’s Internet of Things (IoT) comprises more than a billion intelligent devices, connected via wired/wireless communications. The expected proliferation of hundreds of billions more places us at the threshold of a transformation sweeping across the communications industry. Yet, we found that the IoT architecture and solutions that currently work for billions of devices won’t necessarily scale to tomorrow’s hundreds of billions of devices because of high cost, lack of privacy, not future-proof, lack of functional value and broken business models. As the IoT scales exponentially, decentralized networks have the potential to reduce infrastructure and maintenance costs to manufacturers. Decentralization also promises increased robustness by removing single points of failure that could exist in traditional centralized networks. By shifting the power in the network from the center to the edges, devices gain greater autonomy and can become points of transactions and economic value creation for owners and users. To validate the underlying technology vision, IBM jointly developed with Samsung Electronics the autonomous decentralized peer-to- peer proof-of-concept (PoC). The primary objective of this PoC was to establish a foundation on which to demonstrate several capabilities that are fundamental to building a decentralized IoT. Though many commercial systems in the future will exist as hybrid centralized-decentralized models, the PoC demonstrated a fully distributed proof. The PoC (a) validated the future vision for decentralized systems to extensively augment today’s centralized solutions, (b) demonstrated foundational IoT tasks without the use of centralized control, (c) proved that empowered devices can engage autonomously in marketplace transactions. The PoC opens the door for the communications and electronics industry to further explore the challenges and opportunities of potential hybrid models that can address the complexity and variety of requirements posed by the internet that continues to scale. Contents: (a) The new approach for an IoT that will be secure and scalable, (b) The three foundational technologies that are key for the future IoT, (c) The related business models and user experiences, (d) How such an IoT will create an 'Economy of Things', (e) The role of users, devices, and industries in the IoT future, (f) The winners in the IoT economy.

Keywords: IoT, internet, wired, wireless

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Authors: Monique Somma

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As special education service delivery models are shifting in order to better meet the academic and social rights of students with exceptionalities, teaching practices must also align with these goals. This phenomenological case study explored the change experiences of special education teachers who have transitioned from teaching in a self-contained special education class to an inclusive class setting. Ten special educators who had recently changed their teaching roles to inclusive classrooms, completed surveys and participated in a focus group. Of the original ten educators, five chose to participate further in individual interviews. Data collected from the three methods was examined and compared for common themes. Emergent themes included, support and training, attitudes and perceptions, inclusive practice, growth and change, and teaching practice. The overall findings indicated that despite their special education training, these educators were challenged by their own beliefs and expectations, the attitudes of others and systematic barriers in the education system. They were equally surprised by the overall social and academic performance of students with exceptionalities in inclusive classes, as well as, the social and academic growth and development of the other students in the class. Over the course of their careers, they all identified an overall personal pedagogical shift, to some degree or another, which they contributed to the successful experiences of inclusion they had. They also recognized that collaborating with others was essential for inclusion to be successful. The findings from this study suggest several implications for professional development and training needs specific to special education teachers moving into inclusive settings. Maximizing the skills of teachers with special education experience in a Professional Learning Community (PLC) and mentorship opportunities would be beneficial to all staffs working toward creating inclusive classrooms and schools.

Keywords: attitudes and perceptions, inclusion of students with exceptionalities, special education teachers, teacher change

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Thilina Ranaweera, Enes Makalic, John L. Hopper, Adrian Bickerstaffe

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Data are the primary asset of biomedical researchers, and the engine for both discovery and research translation. As the volume and complexity of research datasets increase, especially with new technologies such as large single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chips, so too does the requirement for software to manage, process and analyze the data. Researchers often need to execute complicated queries and conduct complex analyzes of large-scale datasets. Existing tools to analyze such data, and other types of high-dimensional data, unfortunately suffer from one or more major problems. They typically require a high level of computing expertise, are too simplistic (i.e., do not fit realistic models that allow for complex interactions), are limited by computing power, do not exploit the computing power of large-scale parallel architectures (e.g. supercomputers, GPU clusters etc.), or are limited in the types of analysis available, compounded by the fact that integrating new analysis methods is not straightforward. Solutions to these problems, such as those developed and implemented on parallel architectures, are currently available to only a relatively small portion of medical researchers with access and know-how. The past decade has seen a rapid expansion of data management systems for the medical domain. Much attention has been given to systems that manage phenotype datasets generated by medical studies. The introduction of heterogeneous genomic data for research subjects that reside in these systems has highlighted the need for substantial improvements in software architecture. To address this problem, we have developed SPARK, an enabling and translational system for medical research, leveraging existing high performance computing resources, and analysis techniques currently available or being developed. It builds these into The Ark, an open-source web-based system designed to manage medical data. SPARK provides a next-generation biomedical data management solution that is based upon a novel Micro-Service architecture and Big Data technologies. The system serves to demonstrate the applicability of Micro-Service architectures for the development of high performance computing applications. When applied to high-dimensional medical datasets such as genomic data, relational data management approaches with normalized data structures suffer from unfeasibly high execution times for basic operations such as insert (i.e. importing a GWAS dataset) and the queries that are typical of the genomics research domain. SPARK resolves these problems by incorporating non-relational NoSQL databases that have been driven by the emergence of Big Data. SPARK provides researchers across the world with user-friendly access to state-of-the-art data management and analysis tools while eliminating the need for high-level informatics and programming skills. The system will benefit health and medical research by eliminating the burden of large-scale data management, querying, cleaning, and analysis. SPARK represents a major advancement in genome research technologies, vastly reducing the burden of working with genomic datasets, and enabling cutting edge analysis approaches that have previously been out of reach for many medical researchers.

Keywords: biomedical research, genomics, information systems, software

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Authors: Meera Tandan, Mohan Timilsina, Martin Cormican, Akke Vellinga

Abstract:

Background: In general practice, many infections are treated empirically without microbiological confirmation. Understanding susceptibility of antimicrobials during empirical prescribing can be helpful to reduce inappropriate prescribing. This study aims to apply a prediction model using a decision tree approach to predict the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of urinary tract infections (UTI) based on non-clinical features of patients over 65 years. Decision tree models are a novel idea to predict the outcome of AMR at an initial stage. Method: Data was extracted from the database of the microbiological laboratory of the University Hospitals Galway on all antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) of urine specimens from patients over the age of 65 from January 2011 to December 2014. The primary endpoint was resistance to common antimicrobials (Nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim, ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav and amoxicillin) used to treat UTI. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated with the outcome ‘resistant infection’. The importance of each predictor (the number of previous samples, age, gender, location (nursing home, hospital, community) and causative agent) on antimicrobial resistance was estimated. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive (NPV) and positive predictive (PPV) values were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the data were used as a training set and validation of the model was performed with the remaining 25% of the dataset. Results: A total of 9805 UTI patients over 65 years had their urine sample submitted for AST at least once over the four years. E.coli, Klebsiella, Proteus species were the most commonly identified pathogens among the UTI patients without catheter whereas Sertia, Staphylococcus aureus; Enterobacter was common with the catheter. The validated CART model shows slight differences in the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV in between the models with and without the causative organisms. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for the model with non-clinical predictors was between 74% and 88% depending on the antimicrobial. Conclusion: The CART models developed using non-clinical predictors have good performance when predicting antimicrobial resistance. These models predict which antimicrobial may be the most appropriate based on non-clinical factors. Other CART models, prospective data collection and validation and an increasing number of non-clinical factors will improve model performance. The presented model provides an alternative approach to decision making on antimicrobial prescribing for UTIs in older patients.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, urinary tract infection, prediction, decision tree

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Authors: Muhammad Fezan Afzal, Asad Abbas, Imran Khan, Salma Imtiaz

Abstract:

Software Product Line (SPL) paradigm is used for the development of the family of software products that share common and variable features. Feature model is a domain of SPL that consists of common and variable features with predefined relationships and constraints. Multiple SPLs consist of a number of similar common and variable features, such as mobile phones and Tabs. Reusability of common and variable features from the different domains of SPL is a complex task due to the external relationships and constraints of features in the feature model. To increase the reusability of feature model resources from domain engineering, it is required to manage the commonality of features at the level of SPL application development. In this research, we have proposed an approach that combines multiple SPLs into a single domain and converts them to a common feature model. Extracting the common features from different feature models is more effective, less cost and time to market for the application development. For extracting features from multiple SPLs, the proposed framework consists of three steps: 1) find the variation points, 2) find the constraints, and 3) combine the feature models into a single feature model on the basis of variation points and constraints. By using this approach, reusability can increase features from the multiple feature models. The impact of this research is to reduce the development of cost, time to market and increase products of SPL.

Keywords: software product line, feature model, variability management, multi-SPLs

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