Search results for: Newtonian fluid model

Authors: Eva Queheille, Franck Taillandier, Nadia Saiyouri

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Waste management has become a major issue in demolition works, because of its environmental impact (energy consumption, resource consumption, pollution…). However, improving waste management requires to take also into account the overall demolition process and to consider demolition main objectives (e.g. cost, delay). Establishing a strategy with these conflicting objectives (economic and environment) remains complex. In order to provide a decision-support for demolition companies, a multi-objective optimization model was developed. In this model, a demolition strategy is computed from a set of 80 decision variables (worker team composition, machines, treatment for each type of waste, choice of treatment platform…), which impacts the demolition objectives. The model has experimented on a real-case study (demolition of several buildings in France). To process the optimization, different optimization algorithms (NSGA2, MOPSO, DBEA…) were tested. Results allow the engineer in charge of this case, to build a sustainable demolition strategy without affecting cost or delay.

Keywords: deconstruction, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, waste management

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Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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Authors: Hamidreza Babaali, Alireza Mojtahedi, Nasim Soori, Saba Soori

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Hydraulic jump is one of the effective ways of energy dissipation in stilling basins that the ‎energy is highly dissipated by jumping. Adverse slope surface at the end stilling basin is ‎caused to increase energy dissipation and stability of the hydraulic jump. In this study, the adverse slope ‎has been added to end of United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) II stilling basin in hydraulic model of Nazloochay dam with scale 1:40, and flow simulated into stilling basin using Flow-3D ‎software. The numerical model is verified by experimental data of water depth in ‎stilling basin. Then, the parameters of water level profile, Froude Number, pressure, air ‎entrainment and turbulent dissipation investigated for discharging 300 m³/s using K-Ɛ and Re-Normalization Group (RNG) turbulence ‎models. The results showed a good agreement between numerical and experimental model‎ as ‎numerical model can be used to optimize of stilling basins.‎

Keywords: experimental and numerical modelling, end adverse slope, flow ‎parameters, USBR II stilling basin

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Authors: Hong Lu, Yongquan Zhang, Wei Fan, Xiangang Su

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Bent mandrel has been widely used as precise mould in automobile industry, shipping industry and aviation industry. To improve the versatility and efficiency of turning method of bent mandrel with fixed rotational center, an instantaneous machining model based on cutting parameters and machine dimension is prospered in this paper. The spiral-like tool path generation approach in non-axisymmetric turning process of bent mandrel is developed as well to deal with the error of part-to-part repeatability in existed turning model. The actual cutter-location points are calculated by cutter-contact points, which are obtained from the approach of spiral sweep process using equal-arc-length segment principle in polar coordinate system. The tool offset is set to avoid the interference between tool and work piece is also considered in the machining model. Depend on the spindle rotational angle, synchronization control of X-axis, Z-axis and C-axis is adopted to generate the tool-path of the turning process. The simulation method is developed to generate NC program according to the presented model, which includes calculation of cutter-location points and generation of tool-path of cutting process. With the approach of a bent mandrel taken as an example, the maximum offset of center axis is 4mm in the 3D space. Experiment results verify that the machining model and turning method are appropriate for the characteristics of bent mandrel.

Keywords: bent mandrel, instantaneous machining model, simulation method, tool-path generation

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Tarek Duzan, Walid Esayed

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Fluid flow in porous media is attributed fundamentally to parameters that are controlled by depositional and post-depositional environments. After deposition, digenetic events can act negatively on the reservoir and reduce the effective porosity, thereby making the rock less permeable. Therefore, exploiting hydrocarbons from such resources requires partially altering the rock properties to improve the long-term production rate and enhance the recovery efficiency. In this study, we try to address, firstly, the phenomena of permeability reduction in tight sandstone reservoirs and illustrate the implemented procedures to investigate the problem roots; finally, benchmark the candidate solutions at the field scale and recommend the mitigation strategy for the field development plan. During the study, two investigations have been considered: subsurface analysis using ( PLT ) and Laboratory tests for four candidate wells of the interested reservoir. Based on the above investigations, it was obvious that the Production logging tool (PLT) has shown areas of contribution in the reservoir, which is considered very limited, considering the total reservoir thickness. Also, Alcohol treatment was the first choice to go with for the AA9 well. The well productivity has been relatively restored but not to its initial productivity. Furthermore, Alcohol treatment in the lab was effective and restored permeability in some plugs by 98%, but operationally, the challenge would be the ability to distribute enough alcohol in a wellbore to attain the sweep Efficiency obtained within a laboratory core plug. However, the Second solution, which is based on fracking wells, has shown excellent results, especially for those wells that suffered a high drop in oil production. It is suggested to frac and pack the wells that are already damaged in the Waha field to mitigate the damage and restore productivity back as much as possible. In addition, Critical fluid velocity and its effect on fine sand migration in the reservoir have to be well studied on core samples, and therefore, suitable pressure drawdown will be applied in the reservoir to limit fine sand migration.

Keywords: alcohol treatment, post-depositional environments, permeability, tight sandstone

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Authors: Jonathan Gong

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Purpose AI-driven solutions are at the forefront of many pathology and medical imaging methods. Using algorithms designed to better the experience of medical professionals within their respective fields, the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis can improve. In particular, X-rays are a fast and relatively inexpensive test that can diagnose diseases. In recent years, X-rays have not been widely used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. The under use of Xrays is mainly due to the low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with pneumonia, another respiratory disease. However, research in this field has expressed a possibility that artificial neural networks can successfully diagnose COVID-19 with high accuracy. Models and Data The dataset used is the COVID-19 Radiography Database. This dataset includes images and masks of chest X-rays under the labels of COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. The classification model developed uses an autoencoder and a pre-trained convolutional neural network (DenseNet201) to provide transfer learning to the model. The model then uses a deep neural network to finalize the feature extraction and predict the diagnosis for the input image. This model was trained on 4035 images and validated on 807 separate images from the ones used for training. The images used to train the classification model include an important feature: the pictures are cropped beforehand to eliminate distractions when training the model. The image segmentation model uses an improved U-Net architecture. This model is used to extract the lung mask from the chest X-ray image. The model is trained on 8577 images and validated on a validation split of 20%. These models are calculated using the external dataset for validation. The models’ accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, IOU, and loss are calculated. Results The classification model achieved an accuracy of 97.65% and a loss of 0.1234 when differentiating COVID19-infected, pneumonia-infected, and normal lung X-rays. The segmentation model achieved an accuracy of 97.31% and an IOU of 0.928. Conclusion The models proposed can detect COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal lungs with high accuracy and derive the lung mask from a chest X-ray with similarly high accuracy. The hope is for these models to elevate the experience of medical professionals and provide insight into the future of the methods used.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, image processing, machine learning

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Authors: Hasan A Al-Asadi, Ali Samir, Afrah Turki Awad, Ali Basem

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Integrating the phase change material (PCM) with photovoltaic (PV) panels is one of the effective techniques to minimize the PV panel temperature and increase their electric output. In order to investigate the impact of the PCM on the electric output of the PV panels for a whole year, a lumped-distributed parameter model for the PV-PCM module has been developed. This development has considered the impact of the PCM density variation between the solid phase and liquid phase. This contribution will increase the assessment accuracy of the electric output of the PV-PCM module. The second contribution is to assess the impact of the expanded composite graphite-PCM on the PV electric output in Milan for a whole year. The novel one-dimensional model has been solved using MATLAB software. The results of this model have been validated against literature experiment work. The weather and the solar radiation data have been collected. The impact of expanded graphite-PCM on the electric output of the PV panel for a whole year has been investigated. The results indicate this impact has an enhancement rate of 2.39% for the electric output of the PV panel in Milan for a whole year.

Keywords: PV panel efficiency, PCM, numerical model, solar energy

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Authors: Xiaoyun Li, Suoang Longzhou

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This paper derives the analytical solution of stellar distance according to its redshift based on the photon-dominated universe expansion model. Firstly, it calculates stellar separation speed and the farthest distance of observable stars via simulation. Then the analytical solution of stellar distance according to its redshift is derived. It shows that when the redshift is large, the stellar distance (and its separation speed) is not proportional to its redshift due to the relativity effect. It also reveals the relationship between stellar age and its redshift. The correctness of the analytical solution is verified by the latest astronomic observations of Ia supernovas in 2020.

Keywords: redshift, cosmic expansion model, analytical solution, stellar distance

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Authors: Laleh Taheri, Noraini C. Pa, Rusli Abdullah, Salfarina Abdullah

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Knowledge plays an important role to the success of any organization. Software development organizations are highly knowledge-intensive organizations especially in their Requirement Elicitation Process (REP). There are several problems regarding communicating and using the knowledge in REP such as misunderstanding, being out of scope, conflicting information and changes of requirements. All of these problems occurred in transmitting the requirements knowledge during REP. Several researches have been done in REP in order to solve the problem towards requirements. Knowledge Audit (KA) approaches were proposed in order to solve managing knowledge in human resources, financial, and manufacturing. There is lack of study applying the KA in requirements elicitation process. Therefore, this paper proposes a KA model for REP in supporting to acquire good requirements.

Keywords: knowledge audit, requirement elicitation process, KA model, knowledge in requirement elicitation

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Authors: Stefanie Jeanette Huber

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This paper explores the relevance and implications of preferences for housing services on house price fluctuations through the lens of an overlapping generation’s model. The model implies that an economy whose agents have lower preferences for housing services is characterized with lower expenditure shares on housing services and will tend to experience more frequent and more volatile housing bubbles. These model predictions are tested empirically in the companion paper Housing Booms and Busts - Convergences and Divergences across OECD countries. Between 1970 - 2013, countries who spend less on housing services as a share of total income experienced significantly more housing cycles and the associated housing boom-bust cycles were more violent. Finally, the model is used to study the impact of rental subsidies and help-to-buy schemes on rational housing bubbles. Rental subsidies are found to contribute to the control of housing bubbles, whereas help-to- buy scheme makes the economy more bubble-prone.

Keywords: housing bubbles, housing booms and busts, preference for housing services, expenditure shares for housing services, rental and purchase subsidies

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Authors: Mohammed A. Zidan, Alaa Sagheer, Nasser Metwally

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Real-time learning is an important goal that most of artificial intelligence researches try to achieve it. There are a lot of problems and applications which require low cost learning such as learn a robot to be able to classify and recognize patterns in real time and real-time recall. In this contribution, we suggest a model of quantum competitive learning based on a series of quantum gates and additional operator. The proposed model enables to recognize any incomplete patterns, where we can increase the probability of recognizing the pattern at the expense of the undesired ones. Moreover, these undesired ones could be utilized as new patterns for the system. The proposed model is much better compared with classical approaches and more powerful than the current quantum competitive learning approaches.

Keywords: competitive learning, quantum gates, quantum gates, winner-take-all

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

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In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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Authors: Pablo J. Valverde, Jaime E. Fernandez

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This paper shows under which conditions public corruption can emerge. The theoretical model includes variables such as the public employee wage (w), a control corruption parameter (c), and the group size of interactions (GS) between clusters of public officers and contractors. The system behavior is analyzed using phase diagrams based on combinations of such parameters (c, w, GS). Numerical simulations are implemented in order to contrast analytic results based on Nash equilibria of the theoretical model. Major findings include the functional relationship between wages and network topology, which attempts to reduce the emergence of corrupt behavior.

Keywords: public corruption, game theory, complex systems, Nash equilibrium.

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Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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Authors: Vadim V. Zefirov, Victor E. Sizov, Marina A. Pigaleva, Igor V. Elmanovich, Mikhail S. Kondratenko, Marat O. Gallyamov

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This work presents a novel method for treating porous hydrophobic polyolefin membranes using supercritical carbon dioxide that allows usage of the modified membrane in redox flow batteries with an aqueous electrolyte. Polyolefin membranes are well known and widely used, however, they cannot be used as separators in redox flow batteries with an aqueous electrolyte since they have insufficient wettability, and therefore do not provide sufficient proton conductivity. The main aim of the presented work was the development of hydrophilic composites based on cheap membranes and precursors. Supercritical fluid was used as a medium for the deposition of the hydrophilic phase on the hydrophobic surface of the membrane. Due to the absence of negative capillary effects in a supercritical medium, a homogeneous composite is obtained as a result of synthesis. The in-situ synthesized silicon oxide nanoparticles and the chitosan polymer layer act as the hydrophilic phase and not only increase the affinity of the membrane towards the electrolyte, but also reduce the pore size of the polymer matrix, which positively affects the ion selectivity of the membrane. The composite material obtained as a result of synthesis has enhanced hydrophilic properties and is capable of providing proton conductivity in redox flow batteries. The morphology of the obtained composites was characterized by electron microscopy. To analyze the phase composition, infrared spectroscopy was used. The hydrophilic properties were studied by water contact angle measurements. In addition, the proton conductivity and ion selectivity of the obtained samples were studied, and tests in real redox flow batteries were performed. As a result, modified membrane was characterised in detail and moreover it was shown that modified cheap polyolefin membranes have pronounced proton conductivity and high ion selectivity, so their performance in a real redox flow battery approaches expensive commercial analogues, reaching 70% of energy efficiency.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, chitosan, polymer membrane, redox flow batteries, silica nanoparticles, supercritical fluid

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Authors: Azizul Baten, Kamrul Hossain, Abdullah-Al-Zabir

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The objective of this study is to develop an appropriate stochastic frontier secondary schools efficiency model by ICT Intervention and to examine the impact of ICT challenges on secondary schools efficiency in the Sylhet division in Bangladesh using stochastic frontier analysis. The Translog stochastic frontier model was found an appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas model in secondary schools efficiency by ICT Intervention. Based on the results of the Cobb-Douglas model, it is found that the coefficient of the number of teachers, the number of students, and teaching ability had a positive effect on increasing the level of efficiency. It indicated that these are related to technical efficiency. In the case of inefficiency effects for both Cobb-Douglas and Translog models, the coefficient of the ICT lab decreased secondary school inefficiency, but the online class in school was found to increase the level of inefficiency. The coefficients of teacher’s preference for ICT tools like multimedia projectors played a contributor role in decreasing the secondary school inefficiency in the Sylhet division of Bangladesh. The interaction effects of the number of teachers and the classrooms, and the number of students and the number of classrooms, the number of students and teaching ability, and the classrooms and teaching ability of the teachers were recorded with the positive values and these have a positive impact on increasing the secondary school efficiency. The overall mean efficiency of urban secondary schools was found at 84.66% for the Translog model, while it was 83.63% for the Cobb-Douglas model. The overall mean efficiency of rural secondary schools was found at 80.98% for the Translog model, while it was 81.24% for the Cobb-Douglas model. So, the urban secondary schools performed better than the rural secondary schools in the Sylhet division. It is observed from the results of the Tobit model that the teacher-student ratio had a positive influence on secondary school efficiency. The teaching experiences of those who have 1 to 5 years and 10 years above, MPO type school, conventional teaching method have had a negative and significant influence on secondary school efficiency. The estimated value of σ-square (0.0625) was different from Zero, indicating a good fit. The value of γ (0.9872) was recorded as positive and it can be interpreted as follows: 98.72 percent of random variation around in secondary school outcomes due to inefficiency.

Keywords: efficiency, secondary schools, ICT, stochastic frontier analysis

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Authors: Manik Sharma, Ganapathy Krishnamurthi

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The cost of some drugs and medical treatments has risen in recent years, that many patients are having to go without. A classification project could make researchers more efficient. One of the more surprising reasons behind the cost is how long it takes to bring new treatments to market. Despite improvements in technology and science, research and development continues to lag. In fact, finding new treatment takes, on average, more than 10 years and costs hundreds of millions of dollars. If successful, we could dramatically improve the industry's ability to model cellular images according to their relevant biology. In turn, greatly decreasing the cost of treatments and ensure these treatments get to patients faster. This work aims at solving a part of this problem by creating a cellular image classification model which can decipher the genetic perturbations in cell (occurring naturally or artificially). Another interesting question addressed is what makes the deep-learning model decide in a particular fashion, which can further help in demystifying the mechanism of action of certain perturbations and paves a way towards the explainability of the deep-learning model.

Keywords: cellular images, genetic perturbations, deep-learning, explainability

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Authors: Ozgu Hafizoglu

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Analogy is an essential tool of human cognition that enables connecting diffuse and diverse systems with attributional, deep structural, casual relations that are essential to learning, to innovation in artificial worlds, and to discovery in science. Cognitive Model of Analogy (CMA) leads and creates information pattern transfer within and between domains and disciplines in science. This paper demonstrates the Cognitive Model of Analogy (CMA) as an evolutionary approach to scientific research. The model puts forward the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future, emphasizing the need for flexibility of the system in order to enable reasoning methodology to adapt to changing conditions. In this paper, the model of analogical reasoning is created based on brain cells, their fractal, and operational forms within the system itself. Visualization techniques are used to show correspondences. Distinct phases of the problem-solving processes are divided thusly: encoding, mapping, inference, and response. The system is revealed relevant to brain activation considering each of these phases with an emphasis on achieving a better visualization of the brain cells: glial cells, axons, axon terminals, and neurons, relative to matching conditions of analogical reasoning and relational information. It’s found that encoding, mapping, inference, and response processes in four-term analogical reasoning are corresponding with the fractal and operational forms of brain cells: glial, axons, and neurons.

Keywords: analogy, analogical reasoning, cognitive model, brain and glials

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Authors: Mahmoud H. Aboul-Ela, Riham R. Mohamed, Magdy W. Sabaa

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Synthesis of cross-linked hydrogels composed of trimethyl chitosan (TMC) and poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) in different weight ratios in presence of glutaraldehyde as cross-linking agent. Characterization of the prepared hydrogels was done using FTIR, XRD, SEM and TGA. The prepared hydrogels were investigated as adsorbent materials for some transition metal ions from their aqueous solutions. Moreover, the swell ability of the prepared hydrogels was also investigated in both acidic and alkaline pHs, as well as in simulated body fluid (SBF).

Keywords: trimethyl chitosan, hydrogels, metal uptake, superabsorbent materials

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Authors: Hemin Yuan, Yun Wang, Xiangchun Wang

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Gas hydrate is drawing attention due to the fact that it has an enormous amount all over the world, which is almost twice the conventional hydrocarbon reserves, making it a potential alternative source of energy. It is widely distributed in permafrost and continental ocean shelves, and many countries have launched national programs for investigating the gas hydrate. Gas hydrate is mainly explored through seismic methods, which include bottom simulating reflectors (BSR), amplitude blanking, and polarity reverse. These seismic methods are effective at finding the gas hydrate formations but usually contain large uncertainties when applying to invert the micro-scale petrophysical properties of the formations due to lack of constraints. Rock physics modeling links the micro-scale structures of the rocks to the macro-scale elastic properties and can work as effective constraints for the seismic methods. A number of rock physics models have been proposed for gas hydrate modeling, which addresses different mechanisms and applications. However, these models are generally not well classified, and it is confusing to determine the appropriate model for a specific study. Moreover, since the modeling usually involves multiple models and steps, it is difficult to determine the source of uncertainties. To solve these problems, we summarize the developed models/methods and make four classifications of the models according to the hydrate micro-scale morphology in sediments, the purpose of reservoir characterization, the stage of gas hydrate generation, and the lithology type of hosting sediments. Some sub-categories may overlap each other, but they have different priorities. Besides, we also analyze the priorities of different models, bring up the shortcomings, and explain the appropriate application scenarios. Moreover, by comparing the models, we summarize a general workflow of the modeling procedure, which includes rock matrix forming, dry rock frame generating, pore fluids mixing, and final fluid substitution in the rock frame. These procedures have been widely used in various gas hydrate modeling and have been confirmed to be effective. We also analyze the potential sources of uncertainties in each modeling step, which enables us to clearly recognize the potential uncertainties in the modeling. In the end, we explicate the general problems of the current models, including the influences of pressure and temperature, pore geometry, hydrate morphology, and rock structure change during gas hydrate dissociation and re-generation. We also point out that attenuation is also severely affected by gas hydrate in sediments and may work as an indicator to map gas hydrate concentration. Our work classifies rock physics models of gas hydrate into different categories, generalizes the modeling workflow, analyzes the modeling uncertainties and potential problems, which can facilitate the rock physics characterization of gas hydrate bearding sediments and provide hints for future studies.

Keywords: gas hydrate, rock physics model, modeling classification, hydrate morphology

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Authors: Wenyu Guo, Malachy O’Rourke, Mark Bowkett, Michael Gilchrist

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Many devices for real-time monitoring of surface water have been developed in the past few years to provide early warning of pollutions and so to decrease the risk of environmental pollution efficiently. One of the most common methodologies used in the detection system is a colorimetric process, in which a container with fixed volume is filled with target ions and reagents to combine a colorimetric dye. The colorimetric ions can sensitively absorb a specific-wavelength radiation beam, and its absorbance rate is proportional to the concentration of the fully developed product, indicating the concentration of target nutrients in the pre-mixed water samples. In order to achieve precise and rapid detection effect, channels with dimensions in the order of micrometers, i.e., microfluidic systems have been developed and introduced into these diagnostics studies. Microfluidics technology largely reduces the surface to volume ratios and decrease the samples/reagents consumption significantly. However, species transport in such miniaturized channels is limited by the low Reynolds numbers in the regimes. Thus, the flow is extremely laminar state, and diffusion is the dominant mass transport process all over the regimes of the microfluidic channels. The objective of this present work has been to analyse the mixing effect and chemistry kinetics in a stop-flow microfluidic device measuring Nitride concentrations in fresh water samples. In order to improve the temporal resolution of the Nitride microfluidic sensor, we have used computational fluid dynamics to investigate the influence that the effectiveness of the mixing process between the sample and reagent within a microfluidic device exerts on the time to completion of the resulting chemical reaction. This computational approach has been complemented by physical experiments. The kinetics of the Griess reaction involving the conversion of sulphanilic acid to a diazonium salt by reaction with nitrite in acidic solution is set in the Laminar Finite-rate chemical reaction in the model. Initially, a methodology was developed to assess the degree of mixing of the sample and reagent within the device. This enabled different designs of the mixing channel to be compared, such as straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Thereafter, the time to completion of the Griess reaction within a straight mixing channel device was modeled and the reaction time validated with experimental data. Further simulations have been done to compare the reaction time to effective mixing within straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Results show that square wave channels can significantly improve the mixing effect and provides a low standard deviations of the concentrations of nitride and reagent, while for straight channel microfluidic patterns the corresponding values are 2-3 orders of magnitude greater, and consequently are less efficiently mixed. This has allowed us to design novel channel patterns of micro-mixers with more effective mixing that can be used to detect and monitor levels of nutrients present in water samples, in particular, Nitride. Future generations of water quality monitoring and diagnostic devices will easily exploit this technology.

Keywords: nitride detection, computational fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, mixing effect

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung, Steven N. MacEachern

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Check loss function is used to define quantile regression. In the prospect of cross validation, it is also employed as a validation function when underlying truth is unknown. However, our empirical study indicates that the validation with check loss often leads to choosing an over estimated fits. In this work, we suggest a modified or L2-adjusted check loss which rounds the sharp corner in the middle of check loss. It has a large effect of guarding against over fitted model in some extent. Through various simulation settings of linear and non-linear regressions, the improvement of check loss by L2 adjustment is empirically examined. This adjustment is devised to shrink to zero as sample size grows.

Keywords: cross-validation, model selection, quantile regression, tuning parameter selection

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Authors: Gaurav Prabhudesai, Gaetan Brill

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The sun's energy source comes from a hydrogen-to-helium thermonuclear reaction, generating a temperature of about 5760 K on its outer layer. On account of this high temperature, energy is radiated by the sun, a part of which reaches the earth. This sunlight, even after losing part of its energy en-route to scattering and absorption, provides a time and space averaged solar flux of 174.7 W/m^2 striking the earth’s surface. According to one study, the solar energy striking earth’s surface in one and a half hour is more than the energy consumption that was recorded in the year 2001 from all sources combined. Thus, technology for extraction of solar energy holds much promise for solving energy crisis. Of the many technologies developed in this regard, Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants with central solar tower and receiver system are very impressive because of their capability to provide a renewable energy that can be stored in the form of heat. One design of central receiver towers is an open cavity where sunlight is concentrated into by using mirrors (also called heliostats). This concentrated solar flux produces high temperature inside the cavity which can be utilized in an energy conversion process. The amount of energy captured is reduced by losses occurring at the cavity through all three modes viz., radiation to the atmosphere, conduction to the adjoining structure and convection. This study investigates the natural convection losses to the environment from the receiver. Computational fluid dynamics were used to simulate the fluid flow and heat transfer of the receiver; since no analytical solution can be obtained and no empirical correlations exist for the given geometry. The results provide guide lines for predicting natural convection losses for hexagonal and circular shaped open cavities. Additionally, correlations are given for various inclination angles and aspect ratios. These results provide methods to minimize natural convection through careful design of receiver geometry and modification of the inclination angle, and aspect ratio of the cavity.

Keywords: concentrated solar power (CSP), central receivers, natural convection, CFD, open cavities

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

Abstract:

Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Sushil Kumar Gupta, Atharva Joshi, Ayush Sonawale, Sachin Naik, Rajshree Khande

Abstract:

The usage of artificially created videos and audio by deep learning is a major problem of the current media landscape, as it pursues the goal of misinformation and distrust. In conclusion, the objective of this work targets generating a reliable deepfake detection model using deep learning that will help detect forged videos accurately. In this work, CelebDF v1, one of the largest deepfake benchmark datasets in the literature, is adopted to train and test the proposed models. The data includes authentic and synthetic videos of high quality, therefore allowing an assessment of the model’s performance against realistic distortions.

Keywords: deepfake detection, CelebDF v1, convolutional neural network (CNN), xception model, data augmentation, media manipulation

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

Abstract:

Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that it is not linked to planning software such as Microsoft Project, which lacks the database required for data storage. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, HR reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, EVM, integration management

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Authors: Hao Yan, Xiaobing Zhang

Abstract:

The working mechanism of miniaturized solid rocket motors (SRMs) is not yet fully understood. It is imperative to explore its unique features. However, there are many disadvantages to using common multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) in predicting the parameters of the miniaturized SRM during its conceptual design phase. Initially, the design variables and objectives are constrained in a lumped parameter model (LPM) of this SRM, which leads to local optima in MOEAs. In addition, MOEAs require a large number of calculations due to their population strategy. Although the calculation time for simulating an LPM just once is usually less than that of a CFD simulation, the number of function evaluations (NFEs) is usually large in MOEAs, which makes the total time cost unacceptably long. Moreover, the accuracy of the LPM is relatively low compared to that of a CFD model due to its assumptions. CFD simulations or experiments are required for comparison and verification of the optimal results obtained by MOEAs with an LPM. The conceptual design phase based on MOEAs is a lengthy process, and its results are not precise enough due to the above shortcomings. An artificial neural network (ANN) based parameter prediction is proposed as a way to reduce time costs and improve prediction accuracy. In this method, an ANN is used to build a surrogate model that is trained with a 3D numerical simulation. In design, the original LPM is replaced by a surrogate model. Each case uses the same MOEAs, in which the calculation time of the two models is compared, and their optimization results are compared with 3D simulation results. Using the surrogate model for the parameter prediction process of the miniaturized SRMs results in a significant increase in computational efficiency and an improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus, the ANN-based surrogate model does provide faster and more accurate parameter prediction for an initial design scheme. Moreover, even when the MOEAs converge to local optima, the time cost of the ANN-based surrogate model is much lower than that of the simplified physical model LPM. This means that designers can save a lot of time during code debugging and parameter tuning in a complex design process. Designers can reduce repeated calculation costs and obtain accurate optimal solutions by combining an ANN-based surrogate model with MOEAs.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solid rocket motor, multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, surrogate model

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Authors: Kamyar Moradi

Abstract:

Background: There is mixed evidence regarding the association between recreational cannabinoid use and memory performance. One of the major reasons for the present controversy is different cannabinoid use-related covariates that influence the cognitive status of an individual. Adjustment of these confounding variables provides accurate insight into the real effects of cannabinoid use on memory status. In this study, we sought to investigate the association between recent recreational cannabinoid use and memory performance while correcting the model for other possible covariates such as demographic characteristics and duration, and amount of cannabinoid use. Methods: Cannabinoid users were assigned to two groups based on the results of THC urine drug screen test (THC+ group: n = 110, THC- group: n = 410). THC urine drug screen test has a high sensitivity and specificity in detecting cannabinoid use in the last 3-4 weeks. The memory domain of NIH Toolbox battery and brain MRI volumetric measures were compared between the groups while adjusting for confounding variables. Results: After Benjamini-Hochberg p-value correction, the performance in all of the measured memory outcomes, including vocabulary comprehension, episodic memory, executive function/cognitive flexibility, processing speed, reading skill, working memory, and fluid cognition, were significantly weaker in THC+ group (p values less than 0.05). Also, volume of gray matter, left supramarginal, right precuneus, right inferior/middle temporal, right hippocampus, left entorhinal, and right pars orbitalis regions were significantly smaller in THC+ group. Conclusions: this study provides evidence regarding the acute effect of recreational cannabis use on memory performance. Further studies are warranted to confirm the results.

Keywords: brain MRI, cannabis, memory, recreational use, THC urine test

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