Search results for: fuzzy logistic regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4083

Search results for: fuzzy logistic regression

3843 Stock Prediction and Portfolio Optimization Thesis

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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3842 Design and Implementation of a Fan Coil Unit Controller Based on the Duty Ratio Fuzzy Method

Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Kai Li

Abstract:

A microcontroller-based fan coil unit (FCU) fuzzy controller is designed and implemented in this paper. The controller employs the concept of duty ratio on the electric valve control, which could make full use of the cooling and dehumidifying capacity of the FCU when the valve is off. The traditional control method and its limitations are analyzed. The hardware and software design processes are introduced in detail. The experimental results show that the proposed method is more energy efficient compared to the traditional controlling strategy. Furthermore, a more comfortable room condition could be achieved by the proposed method. The proposed low-cost FCU fuzzy controller deserves to be widely used in engineering applications.

Keywords: fan coil unit, duty ratio, fuzzy controller, experiment

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3841 Machine Learning Approach for Stress Detection Using Wireless Physical Activity Tracker

Authors: B. Padmaja, V. V. Rama Prasad, K. V. N. Sunitha, E. Krishna Rao Patro

Abstract:

Stress is a psychological condition that reduces the quality of sleep and affects every facet of life. Constant exposure to stress is detrimental not only for mind but also body. Nevertheless, to cope with stress, one should first identify it. This paper provides an effective method for the cognitive stress level detection by using data provided from a physical activity tracker device Fitbit. This device gathers people’s daily activities of food, weight, sleep, heart rate, and physical activities. In this paper, four major stressors like physical activities, sleep patterns, working hours and change in heart rate are used to assess the stress levels of individuals. The main motive of this system is to use machine learning approach in stress detection with the help of Smartphone sensor technology. Individually, the effect of each stressor is evaluated using logistic regression and then combined model is built and assessed using variants of ordinal logistic regression models like logit, probit and complementary log-log. Then the quality of each model is evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and probit is assessed as the more suitable model for our dataset. This system is experimented and evaluated in a real time environment by taking data from adults working in IT and other sectors in India. The novelty of this work lies in the fact that stress detection system should be less invasive as possible for the users.

Keywords: physical activity tracker, sleep pattern, working hours, heart rate, smartphone sensor

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3840 Organic Farming Profitability: Evidence from South Korea

Authors: Saem Lee, Thanh Nguyen, Hio-Jung Shin, Thomas Koellner

Abstract:

Land-use management has an influence on the provision of ecosystem service in dynamic, agricultural landscapes. Agricultural land use is important for maintaining the productivity and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. However, in Korea, intensive farming activities in this highland agricultural zone, the upper stream of Soyang has led to contaminated soil caused by over-use pesticides and fertilizers. This has led to decrease in water and soil quality, which has consequences for ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Conventional farming has still high percentage in this area and there is no special measure to prevent low water quality caused by farming activities. Therefore, the adoption of environmentally friendly farming has been considered one of the alternatives that lead to improved water quality and increase in biomass production. Concurrently, farm households with environmentally friendly farming have occupied still low rates. Therefore, our research involved a farm household survey spanning conventional farming, the farm in transition and organic farming in Soyang watershed. Another purpose of our research was to compare economic advantage of the farmers adopting environmentally friendly farming and non-adaptors and to investigate the different factors by logistic regression analysis with socio-economic and benefit-cost ratio variables. The results found that farmers with environmentally friendly farming tended to be younger than conventional farming and farmer in transition. They are similar in terms of gender which was predominately male. Farmers with environmentally friendly farming were more educated and had less farming experience than conventional farming and farmer in transition. Based on the benefit-cost analysis, total costs that farm in transition farmers spent for one year are about two times as much as the sum of costs in environmentally friendly farming. The benefit of organic farmers was assessed with 2,800 KRW per household per year. In logistic regression, the factors having statistical significance are subsidy and district, residence period and benefit-cost ratio. And district and residence period have the negative impact on the practice of environmentally friendly farming techniques. The results of our research make a valuable contribution to provide important information to describe Korean policy-making for agricultural and water management and to consider potential approaches to policy that would substantiate ways beneficial for sustainable resource management.

Keywords: organic farming, logistic regression, profitability, agricultural land-use

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3839 Developing Fuzzy Logic Model for Reliability Estimation: Case Study

Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

Abstract:

The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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3838 Evaluation of Aggregate Risks in Sustainable Manufacturing Using Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making

Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

Abstract:

Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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3837 An Integreated Intuitionistic Fuzzy ELECTRE Model for Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

Authors: Babek Erdebilli

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using IFE (Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realite (ELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision-making, IFE, DM’s, fuzzy electre model

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3836 Control of Single Axis Magnetic Levitation System Using Fuzzy Logic Control

Authors: A. M. Benomair, M. O. Tokhi

Abstract:

This paper presents the investigation on a system model for the stabilization of a Magnetic Levitation System (Maglev’s). The magnetic levitation system is a challenging nonlinear mechatronic system in which an electromagnetic force is required to suspend an object (metal sphere) in air space. The electromagnetic force is very sensitive to the noise which can create acceleration forces on the metal sphere, causing the sphere to move into the unbalanced region. Maglev’s give the contribution in industry and this system has reduce the power consumption, has increase the power efficiency and reduce the cost maintenance. The common applications for Maglev’s Power Generation (e.g. wind turbine), Maglev’s trains and Medical Device (e.g. Magnetically suspended Artificial Heart Pump). This paper presents the comparison between dynamic response and robust characteristic for both conventional PD and Fuzzy PD controller. The main contribution of this paper is the proof of fuzzy PD type stabilization and robustness. By use of a method to tune the scaling factors of the linear PD type fuzzy controller from an equivalent tuned conventional PD.

Keywords: magnetic levitation system, PD controller, Fuzzy Logic Control, Fuzzy PD

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3835 Farmers’ Access to Agricultural Extension Services Delivery Systems: Evidence from a Field Study in India

Authors: Ankit Nagar, Dinesh Kumar Nauriyal, Sukhpal Singh

Abstract:

This paper examines the key determinants of farmers’ access to agricultural extension services, sources of agricultural extension services preferred and accessed by the farmers. An ordered logistic regression model was used to analyse the data of the 360 sample households based on a primary survey conducted in western Uttar Pradesh, India. The study finds that farmers' decision to engage in the agricultural extension programme is significantly influenced by factors such as education level, gender, farming experience, social group, group membership, farm size, credit access, awareness about the extension scheme, farmers' perception, and distance from extension sources. The most intriguing finding of this study is that the progressive farmers, which have long been regarded as a major source of knowledge diffusion, are the most distrusted sources of information as they are suspected of withholding vital information from potential beneficiaries. The positive relationship between farm size and ‘Access’ underlines that the extension services should revisit their strategies for targeting more marginal and small farmers constituting over 85 percent of the agricultural households by incorporating their priorities in their outreach programs. The study suggests that marginal and small farmers' productive potential could still be greatly augmented by the appropriate technology, advisory services, guidance, and improved market access. Also, the perception of poor quality of the public extension services can be corrected by initiatives aimed at building up extension workers' capacity.

Keywords: agriculture, access, extension services, ordered logistic regression

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3834 Mechanical Tension Control of Winding Systems for Paper Webs

Authors: Glaoui Hachemi

Abstract:

In this paper, a scheme based on multi-input multi output Fuzzy Sliding Mode control (MIMO-FSMC) for linear speed regulation of winding system is proposed. Once the uncoupled model of the winding system was obtained, a smooth control function with a threshold was selected to indicate how far away the case was from the sliding surface. nevertheless, this control function depends closely on the higher bound of the uncertainties, which generates overlap. So, this size has to be chosen with broad care to obtain high performances. Usually, the upper bound of uncertainties is difficult to know before motor operation, so, a Fuzzy Sliding Mode controller is investigated to resolve this problem, a simple Fuzzy inference mechanism is used to decrease the chattering phenomenon by simple adjustments. A simulation study is achieved and that the indicate fuzzy sliding mode controllers have great potential for use as an alternative to the conventional sliding mode control.

Keywords: Winding system, induction machine, Mechanical tension, Proportional-integral (PI), sliding mode control, Fuzzy logic

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3833 Application of Fuzzy Logic to Design and Coordinate Parallel Behaviors for a Humanoid Mobile Robot

Authors: Nguyen Chan Hung, Mai Ngoc Anh, Nguyen Xuan Ha, Tran Xuan Duc, Dang Bao Lam, Nguyen Hoang Viet

Abstract:

This paper presents a design and implementation of a navigation controller for a humanoid mobile robot platform to operate in indoor office environments. In order to fulfil the requirement of recognizing and approaching human to provide service while avoiding random obstacles, a behavior-based fuzzy logic controller was designed to simultaneously coordinate multiple behaviors. Experiments in real office environment showed that the fuzzy controller deals well with complex scenarios without colliding with random objects and human.

Keywords: behavior control, fuzzy logic, humanoid robot, mobile robot

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3832 Analysis of Two Methods to Estimation Stochastic Demand in the Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

Abstract:

Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

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3831 Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) Approach to Email Spam Detection

Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R., Blessy Maria Mathew

Abstract:

The task of detecting email spam is a very important one in the era of digital technology that needs effective ways of curbing unwanted messages. This paper presents an approach aimed at making email spam categorization algorithms transparent, reliable and more trustworthy by incorporating Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Our technique assists in providing interpretable explanations for specific classifications of emails to help users understand the decision-making process by the model. In this study, we developed a complete pipeline that incorporates LIME into the spam classification framework and allows creating simplified, interpretable models tailored to individual emails. LIME identifies influential terms, pointing out key elements that drive classification results, thus reducing opacity inherent in conventional machine learning models. Additionally, we suggest a visualization scheme for displaying keywords that will improve understanding of categorization decisions by users. We test our method on a diverse email dataset and compare its performance with various baseline models, such as Gaussian Naive Bayes, Multinomial Naive Bayes, Bernoulli Naive Bayes, Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, and Logistic Regression. Our testing results show that our model surpasses all other models, achieving an accuracy of 96.59% and a precision of 99.12%.

Keywords: text classification, LIME (local interpretable model-agnostic explanations), stemming, tokenization, logistic regression.

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3830 Effect of Genuine Missing Data Imputation on Prediction of Urinary Incontinence

Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

Abstract:

Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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3829 Establishment of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Postpartum Hemorrhage during Vaginal Delivery

Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

Abstract:

Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

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3828 Unveiling Comorbidities in Irritable Bowel Syndrome: A UK BioBank Study utilizing Supervised Machine Learning

Authors: Uswah Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Moazam Fraz, Humayoon Shafique Satti, Qasim Aziz

Abstract:

Approximately 10-14% of the global population experiences a functional disorder known as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The disorder is defined by persistent abdominal pain and an irregular bowel pattern. IBS significantly impairs work productivity and disrupts patients' daily lives and activities. Although IBS is widespread, there is still an incomplete understanding of its underlying pathophysiology. This study aims to help characterize the phenotype of IBS patients by differentiating the comorbidities found in IBS patients from those in non-IBS patients using machine learning algorithms. In this study, we extracted samples coding for IBS from the UK BioBank cohort and randomly selected patients without a code for IBS to create a total sample size of 18,000. We selected the codes for comorbidities of these cases from 2 years before and after their IBS diagnosis and compared them to the comorbidities in the non-IBS cohort. Machine learning models, including Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine (SVM), AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, and XGBoost, were employed to assess their accuracy in predicting IBS. The most accurate model was then chosen to identify the features associated with IBS. In our case, we used XGBoost feature importance as a feature selection method. We applied different models to the top 10% of features, which numbered 50. Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression and XGBoost algorithms yielded a diagnosis of IBS with an optimal accuracy of 71.08%, 71.427%, and 71.53%, respectively. Among the comorbidities most closely associated with IBS included gut diseases (Haemorrhoids, diverticular diseases), atopic conditions(asthma), and psychiatric comorbidities (depressive episodes or disorder, anxiety). This finding emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach when evaluating the phenotype of IBS, suggesting the possibility of identifying new subsets of IBS rather than relying solely on the conventional classification based on stool type. Additionally, our study demonstrates the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting the development of IBS based on comorbidities, which may enhance diagnosis and facilitate better management of modifiable risk factors for IBS. Further research is necessary to confirm our findings and establish cause and effect. Alternative feature selection methods and even larger and more diverse datasets may lead to more accurate classification models. Despite these limitations, our findings highlight the effectiveness of Logistic Regression and XGBoost in predicting IBS diagnosis.

Keywords: comorbidities, disease association, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), predictive analytics

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3827 Exploring the Factors Affecting the Presence of Farmers’ Markets in Rural British Columbia

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

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Farmers’ Markets have become one of the important healthy food suppliers in both rural communities and urban settings. Farmers’ markets are evolving and their number has rapidly increased in the past decade. Despite this drastic increase, the distribution of the farmers’ markets is not even across different areas. The main goal of this study is to explore the socioeconomic, geographic, and demographic variables which affect the establishment of farmers’ market in rural communities in British Columbia (BC). Thus, the data on available farmers’ markets in rural areas were collected from BC Association of Farmers’ Markets and spatially joined to BC map at Dissemination Area (DA) level using ArcGIS software to link the farmers’ market to the respective communities that they serve. Then, in order to investigate this issue and understand which rural communities farmer’ markets tend to operate, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed with the availability of farmer’ markets at DA-level as dependent variable and Deprivation Index (DI), Metro Influence Zone (MIZ) and population as independent variables. The results indicated that DI and MIZ variables are not statistically significant whereas the population is the only which had a significant contribution in predicting the availability of farmers’ markets in rural BC. Moreover, this study found that farmers’ markets usually do not operate in rural food deserts where other healthy food providers such as supermarkets and grocery stores are non-existent. In conclusion, the presence of farmers markets is not associated with socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of rural communities in BC, but farmers’ markets tend to operate in more populated rural communities in BC.

Keywords: farmers’ markets, socioeconomic and demographic variables, metro influence zone, logistic regression, ArcGIS

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3826 Comparison of Different Methods to Produce Fuzzy Tolerance Relations for Rainfall Data Classification in the Region of Central Greece

Authors: N. Samarinas, C. Evangelides, C. Vrekos

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The aim of this paper is the comparison of three different methods, in order to produce fuzzy tolerance relations for rainfall data classification. More specifically, the three methods are correlation coefficient, cosine amplitude and max-min method. The data were obtained from seven rainfall stations in the region of central Greece and refers to 20-year time series of monthly rainfall height average. Three methods were used to express these data as a fuzzy relation. This specific fuzzy tolerance relation is reformed into an equivalence relation with max-min composition for all three methods. From the equivalence relation, the rainfall stations were categorized and classified according to the degree of confidence. The classification shows the similarities among the rainfall stations. Stations with high similarity can be utilized in water resource management scenarios interchangeably or to augment data from one to another. Due to the complexity of calculations, it is important to find out which of the methods is computationally simpler and needs fewer compositions in order to give reliable results.

Keywords: classification, fuzzy logic, tolerance relations, rainfall data

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3825 Intelligent Control Design of Car Following Behavior Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Abdelkader Merah, Kada Hartani

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A reference model based control approach for improving behavior following car is proposed in this paper. The reference model is nonlinear and provides dynamic solutions consistent with safety constraints and comfort specifications. a robust fuzzy logic based control strategy is further proposed in this paper. A set of simulation results showing the suitability of the proposed technique for various demanding cenarios is also included in this paper.

Keywords: reference model, longitudinal control, fuzzy logic, design of car

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3824 Prediction Compressive Strength of Self-Compacting Concrete Containing Fly Ash Using Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic

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3823 Research on Fuzzy Test Framework Based on Concolic Execution

Authors: Xiong Xie, Yuhang Chen

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Vulnerability discovery technology is a significant field of the current. In this paper, a fuzzy framework based on concolic execution has been proposed. Fuzzy test and symbolic execution are widely used in the field of vulnerability discovery technology. But each of them has its own advantages and disadvantages. During the path generation stage, path traversal algorithm based on generation is used to get more accurate path. During the constraint solving stage, dynamic concolic execution is used to avoid the path explosion. If there is external call, the concolic based on function summary is used. Experiments show that the framework can effectively improve the ability of triggering vulnerabilities and code coverage.

Keywords: concolic execution, constraint solving, fuzzy test, vulnerability discovery

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3822 Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Logical Relationships, PSO Technique, and Automatic Clustering Algorithm

Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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3821 Implementation of a Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID Controller in a Level Control Process

Authors: H. M. Côrtes, J. I. Da Silva Filho, M. F. Blos, B. S. Zanon

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In a modern society the factor corresponding to the increase in the level of quality in industrial production demand new techniques of control and machinery automation. In this context, this work presents the implementation of a Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller. The controller is based on the treatment of inconsistencies both in the Paraconsistent Logic and in the Fuzzy Logic. Paraconsistent analysis is performed on the signals applied to the system inputs using concepts from the Paraconsistent Annotated Logic with annotation of two values (PAL2v). The signals resulting from the paraconsistent analysis are two values defined as Dc - Degree of Certainty and Dct - Degree of Contradiction, which receive a treatment according to the Fuzzy Logic theory, and the resulting output of the logic actions is a single value called the crisp value, which is used to control dynamic system. Through an example, it was demonstrated the application of the proposed model. Initially, the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller was built and tested in an isolated MATLAB environment and then compared to the equivalent Digital PID function of this software for standard step excitation. After this step, a level control plant was modeled to execute the controller function on a physical model, making the tests closer to the actual. For this, the control parameters (proportional, integral and derivative) were determined for the configuration of the conventional Digital PID controller and of the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID, and the control meshes in MATLAB were assembled with the respective transfer function of the plant. Finally, the results of the comparison of the level control process between the Paraconsistent-Fuzzy Digital PID controller and the conventional Digital PID controller were presented.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, paraconsistent annotated logic, level control, digital PID

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3820 Optimizing and Evaluating Performance Quality Control of the Production Process of Disposable Essentials Using Approach Vague Goal Programming

Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

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To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression

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3819 Orthogonal Regression for Nonparametric Estimation of Errors-In-Variables Models

Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

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3818 Agroforestry Systems and Practices and Its Adoption in Kilombero Cluster of Sagcot, Tanzania

Authors: Lazaro E. Nnko, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Gerald C. Monela, Pantaleo K. T. Munishi

Abstract:

Agroforestry systems and practices are perceived to improve livelihood and sustainable management of natural resources. However, their adoption in various regions differs with the biophysical conditions and societal characteristics. This study was conducted in Kilombero District to investigate the factors influencing the adoption of different agroforestry systems and practices in agro-ecosystems and farming systems. A household survey, key informant interviews, and focus group discussion was used for data collection in three villages. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression in SPSS were applied for analysis. Results show that Igima and Ngajengwa villages had home garden practices dominated, as revealed by 63.3% and 66.7%, respectively, while Mbingu village had mixed intercropping practice with 56.67%. Agrosilvopasture systems were dominant in Igima and Ngajengwa villages with 56.7% and 66.7%, respectively, while in Mbingu village, the dominant system was agrosilviculture with 66.7%. The results from multinomial logistic regression show that different explanatory variable was statistical significance as predictors of the adoption of agroforestry systems and practices. Residence type and sex were the most dominant factor influencing the adoption of agroforestry systems. Duration of stay in the village, availability of extension education, residence, and sex were the dominant factor influencing the adoption of agroforestry practices. The most important and statistically significant factors among these were residence type and sex. The study concludes that agroforestry will be more successful if the local priorities, which include social-economic need characteristics of the society, will be considered in designing systems and practices. The socio-economic need of the community should be addressed in the process of expanding the adoption of agroforestry systems and practices.

Keywords: agroforestry adoption, agroforestry systems, agroforestry practices, agroforestry, Kilombero

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3817 Forecasting Free Cash Flow of an Industrial Enterprise Using Fuzzy Set Tools

Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Elena Rogova, Daria Koval

Abstract:

The paper examines the ways of cash flows forecasting in the dynamic external environment. The so-called new reality in economy lowers the predictability of the companies’ performance indicators due to the lack of long-term steady trends in external conditions of development and fast changes in the markets. The traditional methods based on the trend analysis lead to a very high error of approximation. The macroeconomic situation for the last 10 years is defined by continuous consequences of financial crisis and arising of another one. In these conditions, the instruments of forecasting on the basis of fuzzy sets show good results. The fuzzy sets based models turn out to lower the error of approximation to acceptable level and to provide the companies with reliable cash flows estimation that helps to reach the financial stability. In the paper, the applicability of the model of cash flows forecasting based on fuzzy logic was analyzed.

Keywords: cash flow, industrial enterprise, forecasting, fuzzy sets

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3816 Cigarette Smoking and Alcohol Use among Mauritian Adolescents: Analysis of 2017 WHO Global School-Based Student Health Survey

Authors: Iyanujesu Adereti, Tajudeen Basiru, Ayodamola Olanipekun

Abstract:

Background: Substance abuse among adolescents is of public health concern globally. Despite being the most abused by adolescents, there are limited studies on the prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking among adolescents in Mauritius. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol use and associated correlates among school-going adolescents in Mauritius. Methodology: Data obtained from 2017 WHO Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) survey of 3,012 school-going adolescents in Mauritius was analyzed using STATA. Descriptive statistics were used to obtain prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate predictors of cigarette smoking and alcohol use. Results: Prevalence of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were 26.0% and 17.1%, respectively. Smoking and alcohol use was more prevalent among males, younger adolescents, and those in higher school grades (p-value <.000). In multivariable logistic regression, male gender was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) [95%Confidence Interval (CI)]= 1.51[1.06-2.14]) but lower risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.53-0.90]) while older age (mid and late adolescence) and parental smoking were found to be associated with increased risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 1.94[1.34-2.99] and 1.36[1.05-1.78] respectively). Marijuana use, truancy, being in a fight and suicide ideation were associated with increased odds of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 3.82[3.39-6.09]; 2.15[1.62-2.87]; 1.83[1.34-2.49] and 1.93[1.38-2.69] respectively) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 17.28[10.4 - 28.51]; 1.73[1.21-2. 49]; 1.67[1.14-2.45] and 2.17[1.43-3.28] respectively) while involvement in sexual activity was associated with reduced risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.50[0.37-0.68]) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.47[0.33-0.69]). Parental support and parental monitoring were uniquely associated with lower risk of cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.47-0.99] and 0.62[0.43-0.91] respectively). Conclusion: The high prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking in this study shows the need for the government of Mauritius to enhance policies that will help address this issue putting into accounts the various risk and protective factors.

Keywords: adolescent health, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, global school-based student health survey

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3815 Design of Fuzzy Logic Based Global Power System Stabilizer for Dynamic Stability Enhancement in Multi-Machine Power System

Authors: N. P. Patidar, J. Earnest, Laxmikant Nagar, Akshay Sharma

Abstract:

This paper describes the diligence of a new input signal based fuzzy power system stabilizer in multi-machine power system. Instead of conventional input pairs like speed deviation (∆ω) and derivative of speed deviation i.e. acceleration (∆ω ̇) or speed deviation and accelerating power deviation of each machine, in this paper, deviation of active power through the tie line colligating two areas is used as one of the inputs to the fuzzy logic controller in concurrence with the speed deviation. Fuzzy Logic has the features of simple concept, easy effectuation, and computationally efficient. The advantage of this input is that, the same signal can be fed to each of the fuzzy logic controller connected with each machine. The simulated system comprises of two fully symmetrical areas coupled together by two 230 kV lines. Each area is equipped with two superposable generators rated 20 kV/900MVA and area-1 is exporting 413 MW to area-2. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme has been assessed by performing small signal stability assessment and transient stability assessment. The proposed control scheme has been compared with a conventional PSS. Digital simulation is used to demonstrate the performance of fuzzy logic controller.

Keywords: Power System Stabilizer (PSS), small signal stability, inter-area oscillation, fuzzy logic controller, membership function, rule base

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3814 Relationship and Associated Factors of Breastfeeding Self-efficacy among Postpartum Couples in Malawi: A Cross-sectional Study

Authors: Roselyn Chipojola, Shu-yu Kuo

Abstract:

Background: Breastfeeding self-efficacy in both mothers and fathers play a crucial role in improving exclusive breastfeeding rates. However, less is known on the relationship and predictors of paternal and maternal breastfeeding self-efficacy. This study aimed to examine the relationship and associated factors of breastfeeding self-efficacy (BSE) among mothers and fathers in Malawi. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 180 pairs of postpartum mothers and fathers at a tertiary maternity facility in central Malawi. BSE was measured using the Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale Short-Form. Depressive symptoms were assessed by the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. A structured questionnaire was used to collect demographic and health variables. Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression. Results: A higher score of self-efficacy was found in mothers (mean=55.7, Standard Deviation (SD) =6.5) compared to fathers (mean=50.2, SD=11.9). A significant association between paternal and maternal breastfeeding self-efficacy was found (r= 0. 32). Age, employment status, mode of birth was significantly related to maternal and paternal BSE, respectively. Older age and caesarean section delivery were significant factors of combined BSE scores in couples. A higher BSE score in either the mother or her partner predicted higher exclusive breastfeeding rates. BSE scores were lower when couples’ depressive symptoms were high. Conclusion: BSE are highly correlated between Malawian mothers and fathers, with a relatively higher score in maternal BSE. Importantly, a high BSE in couples predicted higher odds of exclusive breastfeeding, which highlights the need to include both mothers and fathers in future breastfeeding promotion strategies.

Keywords: paternal, maternal, exclusive breastfeeding, breastfeeding self‑efficacy, malawi

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