Search results for: event modeling

Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Zhiguo Shi, Cheng Ning Loong, Jiazeng Shan, Weichao Wu

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This study proposes an equivalent circuit model to simulate the eddy current damping force with shaking table tests and finite element modeling. The model is firstly proposed and applied to a simple eddy current damper, which is modelled in ANSYS, indicating that the proposed model can simulate the eddy current damping force under different types of excitations. Then, a non-contact and friction-free eddy current damper is designed and tested, and the proposed model can reproduce the experimental observations. The excellent agreement between the simulated results and the experimental data validates the accuracy and reliability of the equivalent circuit model. Furthermore, a more complicated model is performed in ANSYS to verify the feasibility of the equivalent circuit model in complex eddy current damper, and the higher-order fractional model and viscous model are adopted for comparison.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, eddy current damping, finite element model, shake table test

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Zakiul Fuady, Michaela Spiske

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Inundation events, such as storms and tsunamis can leave onshore sedimentary evidence like sand deposits or large boulders. These deposits store indirect information on the related inundation parameters (e.g., flow velocity, flow depth, wave height). One tool to reveal these parameters are inverse models that use the physical characteristics of the deposits to refer to the magnitude of inundation. This study used boulders of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami from Thailand (Pakarang Cape) and form a historical tsunami event that inundated the outer British Virgin Islands (Anegada). For the largest boulder found in Pakarang Cape with a volume of 26.48 m³ the required tsunami wave height is 0.44 m and storm wave height are 1.75 m (for a bulk density of 1.74 g/cm³. In Pakarang Cape the highest tsunami wave height is 0.45 m and storm wave height are 1.8 m for transporting a 20.07 m³ boulder. On Anegada, the largest boulder with a diameter of 2.7 m is the asingle coral head (species Diploria sp.) with a bulk density of 1.61 g/cm³, and requires a minimum tsunami wave height of 0.31 m and storm wave height of 1.25 m. The highest required tsunami wave height on Anegada is 2.12 m for a boulder with a bulk density of 2.46 g/cm³ (volume 0.0819 m³) and the highest storm wave height is 5.48 m (volume 0.216 m³) from the same bulk density and the coral type is limestone. Generally, the higher the bulk density, volume, and weight of the boulders, the higher the minimum tsunami and storm wave heights required to initiate transport. It requires 4.05 m/s flow velocity by Nott’s equation (2003) and 3.57 m/s by Nandasena et al. (2011) to transport the largest boulder in Pakarang Cape, whereas on Anegada, it requires 3.41 m/s to transport a boulder with diameter 2.7 m for both equations. Thus, boulder equations need to be handled with caution because they make many assumptions and simplifications. Second, the physical boulder parameters, such as density and volume need to be determined carefully to minimize any errors.

Keywords: tsunami wave height, storm wave height, flow velocity, boulders, Anegada, Pakarang Cape

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Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

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In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

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Authors: Fares Jnaid, Riyad Aboutaha

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In this paper, a nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was carried out using ANSYS software to build a model able of predicting the behavior of Reinforced Concrete (RC) beams with unbonded reinforcement. The FEA model was compared to existing experimental data by other researchers. The existing experimental data consisted of 16 beams that varied from structurally sound beams to beams with unbonded reinforcement with different unbonded lengths and reinforcement ratios. The model was able to predict the ultimate flexural strength, load-deflection curve, and crack pattern of concrete beams with unbonded reinforcement. It was concluded that when the when the unbonded length is less than 45% of the span, there will be no decrease in the ultimate flexural strength due to the loss of bond between the steel reinforcement and the surrounding concrete regardless of the reinforcement ratio. Moreover, when the reinforcement ratio is relatively low, there will be no decrease in ultimate flexural strength regardless of the length of unbond.

Keywords: FEA, ANSYS, unbond, strain

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Authors: Nadia Ben Si Ali, Nadia Benalia, Nora Zerzouri

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Wind energy generation has attracted great interests in recent years. Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) for wind turbines are largely deployed because variable-speed wind turbines have many advantages over fixed-speed generation such as increased energy capture, operation at maximum power point, improved efficiency, and power quality. This paper presents the operation and vector control of a Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) system where the stator is connected directly to a stiff grid and the rotor is connected to the grid through bidirectional back-to-back AC-DC-AC converter. The basic operational characteristics, mathematical model of the aerodynamic system and vector control technique which is used to obtain decoupled control of powers are investigated using the software Mathlab/Simulink.

Keywords: wind turbine, Doubly Fed Induction Generator, wind speed controller, power system stability

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Authors: Irfan Ali, Srikant Gupta, Aquil Ahmed

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Every country needs a sustainable development (SD) for its economic growth by forming suitable policies and initiative programs for the development of different sectors of the country. This paper is comprised of modeling and optimization of different sectors of India that form a multi-criterion model. In this paper, we developed a fractional goal programming (FGP) model that helps in providing the efficient allocation of resources simultaneously by achieving the sustainable goals in gross domestic product (GDP), electricity consumption (EC) and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission by the year 2030. Also, a weighted model of FGP is presented to obtain varying solution according to the priorities set by the policy maker for achieving future goals of GDP growth, EC, and GHG emission. The presented models provide a useful insight to the decision makers for implementing strategies in a different sector.

Keywords: sustainable and economic development, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, weighted fuzzy goal programming

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Authors: Liana Gomide, Juliana Rodrigues

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The morphology of the foot defines its mode of operation and a biomechanical reform indispensable for a symmetrical distribution of plantar pressures in order not to overload some of its components in isolation. High plantar pressures at specific points in the foot may be a causal factor in several orthopedic disorders that affect the feet such as pain and stress fracture. With digital baro-podometry equipment one can observe an intensity of pressures along the entire foot and quantify some of the movements, such as a subtalar pronation present in the midfoot region. Although, they are involved in microtraumas. In clinical practice, excessive movement has been limited with the use of different taping techniques applied on the plantar arch. Thus, the objective of the present study was to analyze and compare the influence of the inelastic and elastic taping on the distribution of plantar pressure of runners pronators. This is a randomized clinical trial and blind-crossover. Twenty (20) male subjects, mean age 33 ± 7 years old, mean body mass of 71 ± 7 kg, mean height of 174 ± 6 cm, were included in the study. A data collection was carried out by a single research through barop-odometry equipment - Tekscan, model F-scan mobile. The tests were performed at three different times. In the first, an initial barop-odometric evaluation was performed, without a bandage application, with edges at a speed of 9.0 km/h. In the second and third moments, the inelastic or elastic taping was applied consecutively, according to the definition defined in the randomization. As results, it was observed that both as inelastic and elastic taping, provided significant reductions in contact pressure and peak pressure values when compared to the moment without a taping. However, an elastic taping was more effective in decreasing contact pressure (no bandage = 714 ± 201, elastic taping = 690 ± 210 and inelastic taping = 716 ± 180) and no peak pressure in the midfoot region (no bandage = 1490 ± 42, elastic taping = 1273 ± 323 and inelastic taping = 1487 ± 437). It is possible to conclude that it is an elastic taping provided by pressure in the middle region, thereby reducing the subtalar pronunciation event during the run.

Keywords: elastic taping, inelastic taping, running, subtalar pronation

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Ahmadreza Jabalameli, Mohammad Ebrahimpour Borujeni

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According to psychodynamic theories, the major personality structure of individuals is formed in the first years of life. Trauma is an inseparable and undeniable part of everyone's life and they inevitably struggle with many traumas that can have a very significant impact on their lives. The present study deals with the relationship between childhood trauma on the formation of defense mechanisms and the role of object relations. The present descriptive study is a correlation with structural equation modeling (SEM). Sample selection is available and consists of 200 knowledgeable traders in Jabalameli Information Technology Company. The results indicate that the experience of childhood trauma with a demographic moderating effect, through the mediating role of object relations can lead to vulnerability to ego reality functionality and immature and psychically disturbed defense mechanisms. In this regard, there is a significant negative relationship between childhood trauma and object relations with mature defense mechanisms.

Keywords: childhood trauma, defense mechanisms, object relations, trade

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Authors: Michael J. Haslip

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Character strength application improves performance and well-being in adults across industries, but the potential impact of character strength training among early childhood educators is mostly unknown. To explore how character strengths are applied by early childhood educators at work, a qualitative study was completed alongside professional development provided to a group of in-service teachers of children ages 0-5 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. Study participants (n=17) were all female. The majority of participants were non-white, in full-time lead or assistant teacher roles, had at least ten years of experience and a bachelor’s degree. Teachers were attending professional development weekly for 2 hours over a 10-week period on the topic of social and emotional learning and child guidance. Related to this training were modules and sessions on identifying a teacher’s character strength profile using the Values in Action classification of 24 strengths (e.g., humility, perseverance) that have a scientific basis. Teachers were then asked to apply their character strengths to help resolve current workplace challenges. This study identifies which character strengths the teachers reported using most frequently and the nature of the workplace challenges being resolved in this context. The study also reports how difficult these challenges were to the teachers and their success rate at resolving workplace challenges using a character strength application plan. The study also documents how teachers’ own use of character strengths relates to their modeling of these same traits (e.g., kindness, teamwork) for children, especially when the nature of the workplace challenge directly involves the children, such as when addressing issues of classroom management and behavior. Data were collected on action plans (reflective templates) which teachers wrote to explain the work challenge they were facing, the character strengths they used to address the challenge, their plan for applying strengths to the challenge, and subsequent results. Content analysis and thematic analysis were used to investigate the research questions using approaches that included classifying, connecting, describing, and interpreting data reported by educators. Findings reveal that teachers most frequently use kindness, leadership, fairness, hope, and love to address a range of workplace challenges, ranging from low to high difficulty, involving children, coworkers, parents, and for self-management. Teachers reported a 71% success rate at fully or mostly resolving workplace challenges using the action plan method introduced during professional development. Teachers matched character strengths to challenges in different ways, with certain strengths being used mostly when the challenge involved children (love, forgiveness), others mostly with adults (bravery, teamwork), and others universally (leadership, kindness). Furthermore, teacher’s application of character strengths at work involved directly modeling character for children in 31% of reported cases. The application of character strengths among early childhood educators may play a significant role in improving teacher well-being, reducing job stress, and improving efforts to model character for young children.

Keywords: character strengths, positive psychology, professional development, social-emotional learning

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Authors: Shweta Kumari, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manab B. Bera

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The hydrolysis of lactose using β-galactosidase is one of the most promising biotechnological applications, which has wide range of potential applications in food processing industries. However, due to intracellular location of the yeast enzyme, and expensive extraction methods, the industrial applications of enzymatic hydrolysis processes are being hampered. The use of permeabilization technique can help to overcome the problems associated with enzyme extraction and purification of yeast cells and to develop the economically viable process for the utilization of whole cell biocatalysts in food industries. In the present investigation, standardization of permeabilization process of novel yeast isolate was carried out using a statistical model approach known as Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to achieve maximal b-galactosidase activity. The optimum operating conditions for permeabilization process for optimal β-galactosidase activity obtained by RSM were 1:1 ratio of toluene (25%, v/v) and ethanol (50%, v/v), 25.0 oC temperature and treatment time of 12 min, which displayed enzyme activity of 1.71 IU /mg DW.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, optimization, permeabilization, response surface methodology, yeast

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Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

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In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

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Authors: Nour Ismail, Sahar El Kardawy, Bassant Badwy

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Radiofrequency (RF) lesioning of nerves have been commonly used to alleviate chronic pain, where RF current preventing transmission of pain signals through the nerve by heating the nerve causing the pain. There are some factors that affect the temperature distribution and the nerve lesion size, one of these factors is the inhomogeneities in the tissue medium. Our objective is to calculate the temperature distribution and the nerve lesion size in a nonhomogenous medium surrounding the RF electrode. A two 3-D finite element models are used to compare the temperature distribution in the homogeneous and nonhomogeneous medium. Also the effect of temperature-dependent electric conductivity on maximum temperature and lesion size is observed. Results show that the presence of a nonhomogeneous medium around the RF electrode has a valuable effect on the temperature distribution and lesion size. The dependency of electric conductivity on tissue temperature increased lesion size.

Keywords: finite element model, nerve lesioning, pain relief, radiofrequency lesion

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Authors: Neelam Singha

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The present work intends to analyze the system dynamics of Hashimoto’s thyroiditis with the assistance of fractional calculus. Hashimoto’s thyroiditis or chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis is an autoimmune disorder in which the immune system attacks the thyroid gland, which gradually results in interrupting the normal thyroid operation. Consequently, the feedback control of the system gets disrupted due to thyroid follicle cell lysis. And, the patient perceives life-threatening clinical conditions like goiter, hyperactivity, euthyroidism, hyperthyroidism, etc. In this work, we aim to obtain the approximate solution to the posed fractional-order problem describing Hashimoto’s thyroiditis. We employ the Adomian decomposition method to solve the system of fractional-order differential equations, and the solutions obtained shall be useful to provide information about the effect of medical care. The numerical technique is executed in an organized manner to furnish the associated details of the progression of the disease and to visualize it graphically with suitable plots.

Keywords: adomian decomposition method, fractional derivatives, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Vahidullah Tac, Ercan Gurses

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There have been numerous attempts at modelling carbon nanotube – polymer composites micromechanically in recent years, albeit to limited success. One of the major setbacks of the models used in the scientific community is the lack of regard to the different phases present in a nanocomposite. We employ a multi-phase micromechanical model that allows functionally grading certain phases to determine the mechanical properties of nanocomposites. The model has four distinct phases; the nanotube, the interface between the nanotube and polymer, the interphase, and the bulk matrix. Among the four phases, the interphase is functionally graded such that its moduli gradually decrease from some predetermined values to those of the bulk polymer. We find that the interface plays little role in stiffening/softening of the polymer per se , but instead, it is responsible for load transfer between the polymer and the carbon nanotube. Our results indicate that the carbon nanotube, as well as the interphase, have significant roles in stiffening the composite. The results are then compared to experimental findings and the interphase is tuned accordingly.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, composite, interphase, micromechanical modeling

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Authors: Y. Laib Dit Leksir, S. Bouhouche

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Analysis and processing of data bases resulting from infrared thermal measurements made on the electrical installation requires the development of new tools in order to obtain correct and additional information to the visual inspections. Consequently, the methods based on the capture of infrared digital images show a great potential and are employed increasingly in various fields. Although, there is an enormous need for the development of effective techniques to analyse these data base in order to extract relevant information relating to the state of the equipments. Our goal consists in introducing recent techniques of modeling based on new methods, image and signal processing to develop mathematical models in this field. The aim of this work is to capture the anomalies existing in electrical equipments during an inspection of some machines using A40 Flir camera. After, we use binarisation techniques in order to select the region of interest and we make comparison between these methods of thermal images obtained to choose the best one.

Keywords: infrared thermography, defect detection, troubleshooting, electrical equipment

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Authors: D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha, A. Harouz

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The development and operation of renewable energy known an important development in the world with significant growth potential. Estimate the solar radiation on terrestrial geographic locality is of extreme importance, firstly to choose the appropriate site where to place solar systems (solar power plants for electricity generation, for example) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using solar energy. In addition, solar radiation measurements are limited to a few areas only in Algeria. Thus, we use theoretical approaches to assess the solar radiation on a given location. The Adrar region is one of the most favorable sites for solar energy use with a medium flow that exceeds 7 kWh / m2 / d and saddle of over 3500 hours per year. Our goal in this work focuses on the creation of a data bank for the given data in the energy field of the Adrar region for the period of the year and the month then the integration of these data into a geographic Information System (GIS) to estimate the solar flux on a location on the map.

Keywords: Adrar, flow, GIS, deposit potential

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Authors: Massra M. Sabeima, Myriam lamolle, Mohamedade Farouk Nanne

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Adapting the learning resources of an e-learning system to the characteristics of the learners is an important aspect to consider when designing an adaptive e-learning system. However, this adaptation is not a simple process; it requires the extraction, analysis, and modeling of user information. This implies a good representation of the user's profile, which is the backbone of the adaptation process. Moreover, during the e-learning process, collaboration with similar users (same geographic province or knowledge context) is important. Productive collaboration motivates users to continue or not abandon the course and increases the assimilation of learning objects. The contribution of this work is the following: we propose an adaptive e-learning semantic platform to recommend learning resources to learners, using ontology to model the user profile and the course content, furthermore an implementation of a multi-agent system able to progressively generate the learning graph (taking into account the user's progress, and the changes that occur) for each user during the learning process, and to synchronize the users who collaborate on a learning object.

Keywords: adaptative learning, collaboration, multi-agent, ontology

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Authors: Hector Carcel Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

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This paper examines the time series behavior of three variables (GDP, Price level of Consumption and Population) in the eight countries that belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. The reason for carrying out this study lies in the considerable heterogeneity that can be perceived in the data from these countries. We conduct a long memory and fractional integration modeling framework and we also identify potential breaks in the data. The aim of the study is to perceive up to which degree the eight West African countries that belong to the same monetary union follow the same economic patterns of stability. Testing for mean reversion, we only found strong evidence of it in the case of Senegal for the Price level of Consumption, and in the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal for GDP.

Keywords: West Africa, Monetary Union, fractional integration, economic patterns

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Authors: Murada Alholy, Mengshi Lin, Omar Alhaj, Mahmoud Abugoush

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Alicyclobacillus is a causative agent of spoilage in pasteurized and heat-treated apple juice products. Differentiating between this genus and the closely related Bacillus is crucially important. In this study, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) was used to identify and discriminate between four Alicyclobacillus strains and four Bacillus isolates inoculated individually into apple juice. Loading plots over the range of 1350 and 1700 cm-1 reflected the most distinctive biochemical features of Bacillus and Alicyclobacillus. Multivariate statistical methods (e.g. principal component analysis (PCA) and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA)) were used to analyze the spectral data. Distinctive separation of spectral samples was observed. This study demonstrates that FT-IR spectroscopy in combination with multivariate analysis could serve as a rapid and effective tool for fruit juice industry to differentiate between Bacillus and Alicyclobacillus and to distinguish between species belonging to these two genera.

Keywords: alicyclobacillus, bacillus, FT-IR, spectroscopy, PCA

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Authors: M. Alam, P. Seshaiyer

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The rupture predictability of intracranial aneurysm is one of the most important parameters for physicians in surgical treatment. As most of the intracranial aneurysms are asymptomatic, still the rupture potential of both symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions is relatively unknown. Moreover, an intracranial aneurysm constrained by a nerve tissue might be a common scenario for a physician to deal with during the treatment process. Here, we perform a computational modeling of nerve tissue constrained intracranial saccular aneurysm to show a protective role of constrained tissue on the aneurysm. A comparative parametric study of the model also performs taking long constraint, medium constraint, short constraint, point contact, narrow neck aneurysm, wide neck aneurysm as parameters for the analysis. Results show that contact constraint aneurysm generates less stress near the fundus compared to no constraint aneurysm, hence works as a protective wall for the aneurysm not to be ruptured.

Keywords: rupture potential, intracranial saccular aneurysm, anisotropic hyper-elastic material, finite element analysis

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Authors: Purnomo Yustianto, Robin Doss, Suhardi, Novianto Budi Kurniawan

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As a term for characterizing a process of devising a service system, the term ‘service engineering’ is still regarded as an ‘open’ research challenge due to unspecified details and conflicting perspectives. This paper presents consolidated service engineering ontologies in collecting, specifying and defining relationship between components pertinent within the context of service engineering. The ontologies are built by way of literature surveys from the collected conceptual works by collating various concepts into an integrated ontology. Two ontologies are produced: general service ontology and software service ontology. The software-service ontology is drawn from the informatics domain, while the generalized ontology of a service system is built from both a business management and the information system perspective. The produced ontologies are verified by exercising conceptual operationalizations of the ontologies in adopting several service orientation features and service system patterns. The proposed ontologies are demonstrated to be sufficient to serve as a basis for a service engineering framework.

Keywords: engineering, ontology, service, SoaML

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Amit Sharma, J. N. Sharma

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This paper deals with the study of reflection and transmission characteristics of acoustic waves at the interface of a semiconductor halfspace and elastic solid. The amplitude ratios (reflection and transmission coefficients) of reflected and transmitted waves to that of incident wave varying with the incident angles have been examined for the case of quasi-longitudinal wave. The special cases of normal and grazing incidence have also been derived with the help of Gauss elimination method. The mathematical model consisting of governing partial differential equations of motion and charge carriers diffusion of n-type semiconductors and elastic solid has been solved both analytically and numerically in the study. The numerical computations of reflection and transmission coefficients has been carried out by using MATLAB programming software for silicon (Si) semiconductor and copper elastic solid. The computer simulated results have been plotted graphically for Si semiconductors. The study may be useful in semiconductors, geology, and seismology in addition to surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices.

Keywords: quasilongitudinal, reflection and transmission, semiconductors, acoustics

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Authors: Daniel Benson, Yundan Gong, Hannah Kirk

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Advancement in national language processing techniques has led to increased data processing speeds, and reduced the need for cumbersome, manual data processing that is often required when processing data from multilateral organizations for specific purposes. As such, using named entity recognition (NER) modeling and the Organisation of Economically Developed Countries (OECD) Creditor Reporting System database, we present the first geotagged dataset of OECD donor Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects on a global, subnational basis. Our resulting data contains 52,086 ODA projects geocoded to subnational locations across 115 countries, worth a combined $87.9bn. This represents the first global, OECD donor ODA project database with geocoded projects. We use this new data to revisit old questions of how ‘well’ donors allocate ODA to the developing world. This understanding is imperative for policymakers seeking to improve ODA effectiveness.

Keywords: international aid, geocoding, subnational data, natural language processing, machine learning

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Authors: Fateh Adhnouss, Husam El-Asfour, Kenneth McIsaac, AbdulMutalib Wahaishi, Idris El-Feghia

Abstract:

Conceptualization is an essential component of semantic ontology-based approaches. There have been several approaches that rely on extensional structure and extensional reduction structure in order to construct conceptualization. In this paper, several limitations are highlighted relating to their applicability to the construction of conceptualizations in dynamic and open environments. These limitations arise from a number of strong assumptions that do not apply to such environments. An intensional structure is strongly argued to be a natural and adequate modeling approach. This paper presents a conceptualization structure based on property relations and propositions theory (PRP) to the model ontology that is suitable for open environments. The model extends the First-Order Logic (FOL) notation and defines the formal representation that enables interoperability between software systems and supports semantic integration for software systems in open, dynamic environments.

Keywords: conceptualization, ontology, extensional structure, intensional structure

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Authors: Deepak Nathiya1, Ramesh Roop Rai, Pratima Singh1, Preeti Raj1, Supriya Suman, Balvir Singh Tomar

Abstract:

Background: Sarcopenia is a catabolic state in liver cirrhosis (LC), accelerated with a breakdown of skeletal muscle to release amino acids which adversely affects survival, health-related quality of life, and response to any underlying disease. The primary objective of the study was to investigate the long-term effect of branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) supplementations on parameters associated with improved prognosis in sarcopenic patients with LC, as well as to evaluate its impact on cirrhotic-related events. Methods: We carried out a 24 week, single-center, randomized, open-label, controlled, two cohort parallel-group intervention trial comparing the efficacy of BCAA against lactoalbumin (L-ALB) on 106 sarcopenic liver cirrhotics. The BCAA (intervention) group was treated with 7.2 g BCAA per whereas, the lactoalbumin group was also given 6.3 g of L-Albumin. The primary outcome was to assess the impact of BCAA on parameters of sarcopenia: muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance. The secondary outcomes were to study combined survival and maintenance of liver function changes in laboratory and clinical markers in the duration of six months. Results: Treatment with BCAA leads to significant improvement in sarcopenic parameters: muscle strength, muscle function, and muscle mass. The total cirrhotic-related complications and cumulative event-free survival occurred fewer in the BCAA group than in the L-ALB group. Prognostic markers also improved significantly in the study. Conclusion: The current clinical trial demonstrated that long-term BCAAs supplementation improved sarcopenia and prognostic markers in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis.

Keywords: sarcopenia, liver cirrhosis, BCAA, quality of life

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Authors: Asma Qudrat, Abid Ullah, Rafi Ullah, Ali Raza, Shah Zeb, Syed Ali Shan Ul-Haq, Shahkar Ahmed Shah, Attiya Hameed Khan, Saad Zaheer, Umama Qasim, Kiran Jamal, Zahoor khan

Abstract:

Objectives: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major public health issue associated with high mortality and morbidity rate worldwide. Young patients with ACS have unique characteristics with different demographic profiles and risk factors. The precise diagnosis and early risk stratification is important in guiding treatment and predicting the prognosis of young patients with ACS. To evaluate the associated demographics, risk factors, and outcomes profile of ACS in young age patients. Methods: The research follow a retrospective design, the single centre study of patients diagnosis with the first event of ACS in young age (>18 and <40) were included. Data collection included demographic profiles, risk factors, and in-hospital outcomes of young ACS patients. The patient’s data was retrieved through Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Peshawar Institute of Cardiology (PIC), and all characteristic were assessed. Results: In this study, 77% were male, and 23% were female patients. The risk factors were assessed with CAD and shown significant results (P < 0.01). The most common presentation was STEMI, with (45%) most in ACS young patients. The angiographic pattern showed single vessel disease (SVD) in 49%, double vessel disease (DVD) in 17% and triple vessel disease (TVD) was found in 10%, and Left Artery Disease (LAD) (54%) was present to be the most common involved artery. Conclusion: It is concluded that the male sex was predominant in ACS young age patients. SVD was the common coronary angiographic finding. Risk factors showed significant results towards CAD and common presentations.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, ST elevation myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute coronary syndrome

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