Search results for: patients’ related risks in the current home hemodialysis practices

Authors: Dzeawoni Atlee

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Cameroon is endowed with a rich cultural heritage which presents in the formof monuments, architecture, material culture, geological formations, cultural festivals, forestsandanimal/bird reserves. This heritage has been under threat from looters, hazards, public works, industrialization, urbanization, war and the non-respect of legislation in force. Existing institutions, legislation, conventions and charters play a primordial role when it comes to protecting cultural heritage. In 1982, Cameroon ratified the UNESCO Convention on the protection of world cultural andnatural heritage. Prior to this, the Federal Act of 1963 bearing on the protection of monuments, objects and sites of historic or artistic interest was the first legal instrument in force. It was followedby the creation of a Directorate of culture in 1972, whose activities received a boast fromthe Africancharter of human and peoples’ rights of 1981. Presently, Law No. 91/008 of 1991 bearingontheprotection of the national cultural patrimony and other related Charters ratified by Cameroon remainin force. Despite these strives, the problem of protecting cultural and natural sites persist, andthecountry has not tapped maximum benefits from the sector. In 2002 Haman Mohaman andLazareEloundou of ICOMOS Cameroon signaled that, this issue needed urgent attention; otherwise it wouldresult to the disappearance of the rich cultural heritage of the country. This paper thus focuses ontheexisting legislative and institutional framework in Cameroon, with the objective to single out areasthat should be improved upon. The spatial scope of the paper is the Grassfields of Cameroon, andthesynchronic scope runs from 1963 to 2024. This paper argues that, the existing legislative framework, charters and conventions ratified by Cameroon can sustain its cultural/natural heritage. It is rather thedisjointed form of the legislation and dispersed action by institutions and stake holders/actors onthefield which raises an issue. The methodology applied the qualitative and quantitative approaches. Sources gleaned on decrees, conventions, charters and literature on cultural policy and interviews. Onthe field, surveys were accompanied by questionnaires targeting delegates of culture, tourism, publicworks, curators and custodians of cultural/geological formations. Findings reveal that, ,intheGrassfields, spectacular progress has been made in the West Region of Cameroon to preserveandvalorize its cultural heritage, when compared to the North West Region and other parts of the country. The paper concludes that, the inclusion of the Bamoun Nguon and Douala Ngondo festivals in2024into the UNESCO list of intangible cultural heritage of humanity; together with a plethora of cultural heritage sites in the West Region; emanated from the use of existing laws, better protectionandsynergy of action on the field. The paper recommends that, a Cameroon cultural, tourismandenvironmental protection blue print 2035 is charted out. It also recommends the creation of oneMinistry to manage all aspects of Cameroon’s Cultural Heritage and by implication, a newlegislativeframework.

Keywords: Cameroon, cultural heritage, grassfields, legislation, protection.

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Authors: Elaine Y. L. Ng

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Elizabeth Gilbert’s (2006) biography Eat, Pray, Love describes her travels to Italy, India, and Indonesia after a painful divorce. The author’s experiences with love, loss, search for happiness, and meaning have resonated with a huge readership. As regards the translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love into Chinese, it was first translated by a Taiwanese translator He Pei-Hua and published in Taiwan in 2007 by Make Boluo Wenhua Chubanshe with the fairly catching title “Enjoy! Traveling Alone.” The same translation was translocated to China, republished in simplified Chinese characters by Shanxi Shifan Daxue Chubanshe in 2008 and renamed in China, entitled “To Be a Girl for the Whole Life.” Later on, the same translation in simplified Chinese characters was reprinted by Hunan Wenyi Chubanshe in 2013. This study employs Munday’s (2002) systemic model for descriptive translation studies to investigate the translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love into Chinese by the Taiwanese translator Hu Pei-Hua. It employs an interdisciplinary approach, combining systemic functional linguistics and corpus stylistics with sociohistorical research within a descriptive framework to study the translator’s discursive presence in the text. The research consists of three phases. The first phase is to locate the target text within its socio-cultural context. The target-text context concerning the para-texts, readers’ responses, and the publishers’ orientation will be explored. The second phase is to compare the source text and the target text for the categorization of translation shifts by using the methodological tools of systemic functional linguistics and corpus stylistics. The investigation concerns the rendering of mental clauses and speech and thought presentation. The final phase is an explanation of the causes of translation shifts. The linguistic findings are related to the extra-textual information collected in an effort to ascertain the motivations behind the translator’s choices. There exist sets of possible factors that may have contributed to shaping the textual features of the given translation within a specific socio-cultural context. The study finds that the translator generally reproduces the mental clauses and speech and thought presentation closely according to the original. Nevertheless, the language of the translation has been widely criticized to be unidiomatic and stiff, losing the elegance of the original. In addition, the several Chinese translations of the given text produced by one Taiwanese and two Chinese publishers are basically the same. They are repackaged slightly differently, mainly with the change of the book cover and its captions for each version. By relating the textual findings to the extra-textual data of the study, it is argued that the popularity of the Chinese translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love may not be attributed to the quality of the translation. Instead, it may have to do with the way the work is promoted strategically by the social media manipulated by the four e-bookstores promoting and selling the book online in China.

Keywords: chinese translation of eat pray love, corpus stylistics, motivations for translation shifts, systemic approach to translation studies

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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Authors: Foozhan Gharehkhani

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The use of solar energy as a sustainable renewable energy source has gained significant attention in recent years. Solar concentrating systems (CSP), which direct solar radiation onto a receiver, are an effective means of producing high-temperature thermal energy. Cavity receivers, known for their high thermal efficiency and reduced heat losses, are particularly noteworthy in these systems. Optimizing their design can enhance energy efficiency and reduce costs. This study leverages the genetic algorithm, a powerful optimization tool inspired by natural evolution, to optimize the performance of a solar concentrator system with a cavity receiver, aiming for a more efficient and cost-effective design. In this study, a system consisting of a solar concentrator and a cavity receiver was analyzed. The concentrator was designed as a parabolic dish, and the receiver had a cylindrical cavity with a helical structure. The primary parameters were defined as the cavity diameter (D), the receiver height (h), and the helical pipe diameter (d). Initially, the system was optimized to achieve the maximum heat flux, and the optimal parameter values along with the maximum heat flux were obtained. Subsequently, a multi-objective optimization approach was applied, aiming to maximize the heat flux while minimizing the system construction cost. The optimization process was conducted using the genetic algorithm implemented in MATLAB with precise execution. The results of this study revealed that the optimal dimensions of the receiver, including the cavity diameter (D), receiver height (h), and helical pipe diameter (d), were determined to be 0.142 m, 0.1385 m, and 0.011 m, respectively. This optimization resulted in improvements of 3% in the cavity diameter, 8% in the height, and 5% in the helical pipe diameter. Furthermore, the results indicated that the primary focus of this research was the accurate thermal modeling of the solar collection system. The simulations and the obtained results demonstrated that the optimization applied to this system maximized its thermal performance and elevated its energy efficiency to a desirable level. Moreover, this study successfully modeled and controlled effective temperature variations at different angles of solar irradiation, highlighting significant improvements in system efficiency. The significance of this research lies in leveraging solar energy as one of the prominent renewable energy sources, playing a key role in replacing fossil fuels. Considering the environmental and economic challenges associated with the excessive use of fossil resources—such as increased greenhouse gas emissions, environmental degradation, and the depletion of fossil energy reserves—developing technologies related to renewable energy has become a vital priority. Among these, solar concentrating systems, capable of achieving high temperatures, are particularly important for industrial and heating applications. This research aims to optimize the performance of such systems through precise design and simulation, making a significant contribution to the advancement of advanced technologies and the efficient utilization of solar energy in Iran, thereby addressing the country's future energy needs effectively.

Keywords: cavity receiver, genetic algorithm, optimization, solar concentrator system performance

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Authors: Andrés Quiroz, Emilio Hormazabal, Ana Mutis, Fernando Ortega, Manuel Chacón-Fuentes, Leonardo Parra

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Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) is an important forage species in temperate regions of the world. The main limitation of this species worldwide is a lack of persistence related to the high mortality of plants due to a complex of biotic and abiotic factors, determining a life span of two or three seasons. Because of the importance of red clover in Chile, a red clover breeding program was started at INIA Carillanca Research Center in 1989, with the main objective of improving the survival of plants, forage yield, and persistence. The main selection criteria for selecting new varieties have been based on agronomical parameters and biotic factors. The main biotic factor associated with red clover mortality in Chile is Hylastinus obscurus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Both larval and adults feed on the roots, causing weakening and subsequent death of clover plants. Pesticides have not been successful for controlling infestations of this root borer. Therefore, alternative strategies for controlling this pest are a high priority for red clover producers. Currently, the role of semiochemical in the interaction between H. obscurus and red clover plants has been widely studied for our group. Specifically, from the red clover foliage has been identified limonene is eliciting repellency from the root borer. Limonene is generated in the plant from two independent biosynthetic pathways, the mevalonic acid, and deoxyxylulose pathway. Mevalonate pathway enzymes are localized in the cytosol, whereas the deoxyxylulose phosphate pathway enzymes are found in plastids. In summary, limonene can be determinated by enzymatic bioassay using GPP as substrate and by limonene synthase expression. Therefore, the main objective of this work was to study genetic variation of limonene in material provided by INIA´s Red Clover breeding program. Protein extraction was carried out homogenizing 250 mg of leave tissue and suspended in 6 mL of extraction buffer (PEG 1500, PVP-30, 20 mM MgCl2 and antioxidants) and stirred on ice for 20 min. After centrifugation, aliquots of 2.5 mL were desalted on PD-10 columns, resulting in a final volume of 3.5 mL. Protein determination was performed according to Bradford with BSA as a standard. Monoterpene synthase assays were performed with 50 µL of protein extracts transferred into gas-tight 2 mL crimp seal vials after addition of 4 µL MgCl₂ and 41 µL assay buffer. The assay was started by adding 5 µL of a GPP solution. The mixture was incubated for 30 min at 40 °C. Biosynthesized limonene was quantified in a GC equipped with a chiral column and using synthetic R and S-limonene standards. The enzymatic the production of R and S-limonene from different Superqueli-Carillanca genotypes is shown in this work. Preliminary results showed significant differences in limonene content among the genotypes analyzed. These results constitute an important base for selecting genotypes with a high content of this repellent monoterpene towards H. obscurus.

Keywords: head space, limonene enzymatic determination, red clover, Hylastinus obscurus

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Authors: Yulia V. Krasavtseva, Tatiana V. Kornilova

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Risk-taking behaviors are not only dictated by cognitive components but also involve emotional aspects. Anticipatory emotions, involving both cognitive and affective mechanisms, are involved in decision-making in general, and risk-taking in particular. Affective reactions are prompted when an expectation or prediction is either validated or invalidated in the achieved result. This study aimed to combine predictions, anticipatory emotions, affective reactions, and personality traits in the context of risk-taking behaviors. An experimental online method Emotion and Prediction In a Casino (EPIC) was used, based on a casino-like roulette game. In a series of choices, the participant is presented with progressively riskier roulette combinations, where the potential sums of wins and losses increase with each choice and the participant is given a choice: to 'walk away' with the current sum of money or to 'play' the displayed roulette, thus accepting the implicit risk. Before and after the result is displayed, participants also rate their emotions, using the Self-Assessment Mannequin [Bradley, Lang, 1994], picking a picture, representing the intensity of pleasure, arousal, and dominance. The following personality measures were used: 1) Personal Decision-Making Factors [Kornilova, 2003] assessing risk and rationality; 2) I7 – Impulsivity Questionnaire [Kornilova, 1995] assessing impulsiveness, risk readiness, and empathy and 3) Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale [Craparo et al., 2018] assessing negative attitude toward uncertainty, emotional stress vulnerability, imaginative capability, and problem-solving self-efficacy. Two groups of participants took part in the study: 1) 98 university students (Mage=19.71, SD=3.25; 72% female) and 2) 94 online participants (Mage=28.25, SD=8.25; 89% female). Online participants were recruited via social media. Students with high rationality rated their pleasure and dominance before and after choices as lower (ρ from -2.6 to -2.7, p < 0.05). Those with high levels of impulsivity rated their arousal lower before finding out their result (ρ from 2.5 - 3.7, p < 0.05), while also rating their dominance as low (ρ from -3 to -3.7, p < 0.05). Students prone to risk-rated their pleasure and arousal before and after higher (ρ from 2.5 - 3.6, p < 0.05). High empathy was positively correlated with arousal after learning the result. High emotional stress vulnerability positively correlates with arousal and pleasure after the choice (ρ from 3.9 - 5.7, p < 0.05). Negative attitude to uncertainty is correlated with high anticipatory and reactive arousal (ρ from 2.7 - 5.7, p < 0.05). High imaginative capability correlates negatively with anticipatory and reactive dominance (ρ from - 3.4 to - 4.3, p < 0.05). Pleasure (.492), arousal (.590), and dominance (.551) before and after the result were positively correlated. Higher predictions positively correlated with reactive pleasure and arousal. In a riskier scenario (6/8 chances to win), anticipatory arousal was negatively correlated with the pleasure emotion (-.326) and vice versa (-.265). Correlations occur regardless of the roulette outcome. In conclusion, risk-taking behaviors are linked not only to personality traits but also to anticipatory emotions and affect in a modeled casino setting. Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 19-29-07069.

Keywords: anticipatory emotions, casino game, risk taking, impulsiveness

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Authors: M. Abu Hanif, Anika Tabassum, Fuad Hasan Ovi, Ishrat Islam

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Water is essential for life. Enormous quantities of water are cycled each year through hydrologic cycle but only a fraction of circulated water is available each year for human use. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is the 19th mega city in the world with a population of over 14 million (World City Information, 2011). As a result the growth of urban population is increasing rapidly; the city is not able to manage with altering situations due to resource limitations and management capacity. Water crisis has become an acute problem faced by the inhabitants of Dhaka city. It is found that total water demand in Dhaka city is 2,240 million liter per day (MLD) whereas supply is 2,150 (MLD). According to Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority about 87 percent of this supply comes from groundwater resources and rest 13 percent from surface water. According to Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority it has been found that the current groundwater depletion rate is 3.52 meter per year. Such a fast depletion of the water table will result in intrusion of southern saline water into the groundwater reservoir, depriving this mega city of pure drinking water. This study mainly focus on the potential of Rainwater Harvesting System(RWHS) in Kazipara area of Dhaka city, determine the perception level of local people in installation of rainwater harvesting system in their building and identify the factors regarding willingness of owner in installing rainwater harvesting system. As most of the residential area of Dhaka city is unplanned with small plots, Kazipara area has been chosen as study area which depicts similar characteristics. In this study only roof top area is considered as catchment area and potential of rainwater harvesting has been calculated. From the calculation it is found that harvested rainwater can serve the 66% of demand of water for toilet flushing and cleaning purposes for the people of Kazipara. It is also observed that if only rooftop rainwater harvesting applied to all the structures of the study area then two third of surface runoff would be reduced than present surface runoff. In determining the perception of local people only owners of the buildings were. surveyed. From the questionnaire survey it is found that around 75% people have no idea about the rainwater harvesting system. About 83% people are not willing to install rainwater harvesting system in their dwelling. The reasons behind the unwillingness are high cost of installation, inadequate space, ignorance about the system, etc. Among 16% of the willing respondents who are interested in installing RWHS system, it was found that higher income, bigger size of buildings are important factors in willingness of installing rainwater harvesting system. Majority of the respondents demanded for both technical and economical support to install the system in their buildings. Government of Bangladesh has taken some initiatives to promote rainwater harvesting in urban areas. It is very much necessary to incorporate rainwater harvesting device and artificial recharge system in every building of Dhaka city to make Dhaka city self sufficient in water supply management and to solve water crisis problem of megacity like as Dhaka city.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, water table, willingness, storm water

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Authors: Zanele D. Ngwenya, Mustapha Mohammed, Felix D. Dakora

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Legumes are a major source of biological nitrogen, and therefore play a crucial role in maintaining soil productivity in smallholder agriculture in southern Africa. Through their ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen in root nodules, legumes are a better option for sustainable nitrogen supply in cropping systems than chemical fertilisers. For decades, farmers have been highly receptive to the use of rhizobial inoculants as a source of nitrogen due mainly to the availability of elite rhizobial strains at a much lower compared to chemical fertilisers. To improve the efficiency of the legume-rhizobia symbiosis in African soils would require the use of highly effective rhizobia capable of nodulating a wide range of host plants. This study assessed the morphogenetic diversity, photosynthetic functioning and relative symbiotic effectiveness (RSE) of groundnut, jack bean and soybean microsymbionts in Eswatini soils as a first step to identifying superior isolates for inoculant production. According to the manufacturer's instructions, rhizobial isolates were cultured in yeast-mannitol (YM) broth until the late log phase and the bacterial genomic DNA was extracted using GenElute bacterial genomic DNA kit. The extracted DNA was subjected to enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR (ERIC-PCR) and a dendrogram constructed from the band patterns to assess rhizobial diversity. To assess the N2-fixing efficiency of the authenticated rhizobia, photosynthetic rates (A), stomatal conductance (gs), and transpiration rates (E) were measured at flowering for plants inoculated with the test isolates. The plants were then harvested for nodulation assessment and measurement of plant growth as shoot biomass. The results of ERIC-PCR fingerprinting revealed the presence of high genetic diversity among the microsymbionts nodulating each of the three test legumes, with many of them showing less than 70% ERIC-PCR relatedness. The dendrogram generated from ERIC-PCR profiles grouped the groundnut isolates into 5 major clusters, while the jack bean and soybean isolates were grouped into 6 and 7 major clusters, respectively. Furthermore, the isolates also elicited variable nodule number per plant, nodule dry matter, shoot biomass and photosynthetic rates in their respective host plants under glasshouse conditions. Of the groundnut isolates tested, 38% recorded high relative symbiotic effectiveness (RSE >80), while 55% of the jack bean isolates and 93% of the soybean isolates recorded high RSE (>80) compared to the commercial Bradyrhizobium strains. About 13%, 27% and 83% of the top N₂-fixing groundnut, jack bean and soybean isolates, respectively, elicited much higher relative symbiotic efficiency (RSE) than the commercial strain, suggesting their potential for use in inoculant production after field testing. There was a tendency for both low and high N₂-fixing isolates to group together in the dendrogram from ERIC-PCR profiles, which suggests that RSE can differ significantly among closely related microsymbionts.

Keywords: genetic diversity, relative symbiotic effectiveness, inoculant, N₂-fixing

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Authors: Masoud Fathi Kazerouni, Jens Schlemper, Klaus-Dieter Kuhnert

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Green planet is one of the Earth’s names which is known as a terrestrial planet and also can be named the fifth largest planet of the solar system as another scientific interpretation. Plants do not have a constant and steady distribution all around the world, and even plant species’ variations are not the same in one specific region. Presence of plants is not only limited to one field like botany; they exist in different fields such as literature and mythology and they hold useful and inestimable historical records. No one can imagine the world without oxygen which is produced mostly by plants. Their influences become more manifest since no other live species can exist on earth without plants as they form the basic food staples too. Regulation of water cycle and oxygen production are the other roles of plants. The roles affect environment and climate. Plants are the main components of agricultural activities. Many countries benefit from these activities. Therefore, plants have impacts on political and economic situations and future of countries. Due to importance of plants and their roles, study of plants is essential in various fields. Consideration of their different applications leads to focus on details of them too. Automatic recognition of plants is a novel field to contribute other researches and future of studies. Moreover, plants can survive their life in different places and regions by means of adaptations. Therefore, adaptations are their special factors to help them in hard life situations. Weather condition is one of the parameters which affect plants life and their existence in one area. Recognition of plants in different weather conditions is a new window of research in the field. Only natural images are usable to consider weather conditions as new factors. Thus, it will be a generalized and useful system. In order to have a general system, distance from the camera to plants is considered as another factor. The other considered factor is change of light intensity in environment as it changes during the day. Adding these factors leads to a huge challenge to invent an accurate and secure system. Development of an efficient plant recognition system is essential and effective. One important component of plant is leaf which can be used to implement automatic systems for plant recognition without any human interface and interaction. Due to the nature of used images, characteristic investigation of plants is done. Leaves of plants are the first characteristics to select as trusty parts. Four different plant species are specified for the goal to classify them with an accurate system. The current paper is devoted to principal directions of the proposed methods and implemented system, image dataset, and results. The procedure of algorithm and classification is explained in details. First steps, feature detection and description of visual information, are outperformed by using Scale invariant feature transform (SIFT), HARRIS-SIFT, and FAST-SIFT methods. The accuracy of the implemented methods is computed. In addition to comparison, robustness and efficiency of results in different conditions are investigated and explained.

Keywords: SIFT combination, feature extraction, feature detection, natural images, natural plant recognition, HARRIS-SIFT, FAST-SIFT

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Angelica Alvarez-Lee, Sergio Martinez-Diaz, Jose Luis Garcia-Corona, Humberto Lanz-Mendoza

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World aquaculture is always looking for improvements to achieve productions with high yields avoiding the infection by pathogenic agents. The best way to achieve this is to know the biological model to create alternative treatments that could be applied in the hatcheries, which results in greater economic gains and improvements in human public health. In the last decade, immunomodulation in shrimp culture with probiotics, organic acids and different carbon sources has gained great interest, mainly in larval and juvenile stages. Immune priming is associated with a strong protective effect against a later pathogen challenge. This work provides another perspective about immunostimulation from spawning until hatching. The stimulation happens during development embryos and generates resistance to infection by pathogenic bacteria. Massive spawnings of white shrimp L. vannamei were obtained and placed in experimental units with 700 mL of sterile seawater at 30 °C, salinity of 28 ppm and continuous aeration at a density of 8 embryos.mL⁻¹. The immunostimulating effect of three death strains of non-pathogenic bacterial (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus subtilis) and a pathogenic strain for white shrimp (Vibrio parahaemolyticus) was evaluated. The strains killed by heat were adjusted to O.D. 0.5, at A 600 nm, and directly added to the seawater of each unit at a ratio of 1/100 (v/v). A control group of embryos without inoculum of dead bacteria was kept under the same physicochemical conditions as the rest of the treatments throughout the experiment and used as reference. The duration of the stimulus was 12 hours, then, the larvae that hatched were collected, counted and transferred to a new experimental unit (same physicochemical conditions but at a salinity of 28 ppm) to carry out a challenge of infection against the pathogen V. parahaemolyticus, adding directly to seawater an amount 1/100 (v/v) of the live strain adjusted to an OD 0.5; at A 600 nm. Subsequently, 24 hrs after infection, nauplii survival was evaluated. The results of this work shows that, after 24 hrs, the hatching rates of immunostimulated shrimp embryos with the dead strains of B. subtillis and V. parahaemolyticus are significantly higher compared to the rest of the treatments and the control. Furthermore, survival of L. vanammei after a challenge of infection of 24 hrs against the live strain of V. parahaemolyticus is greater (P < 0.05) in the larvae immunostimulated during the embryonic development with the dead strains B. subtillis and V. parahaemolyticus, followed by those that were treated with E. coli. In summary superficial antigens can stimulate the development cells to promote hatching and can have normal development in agreeing with the optical observations, plus exist a differential response effect between each treatment post-infection. This research provides evidence of the immunostimulant effect of death pathogenic and non-pathogenic bacterial strains in the rate of hatching and oversight of shrimp L. vannamei during embryonic and larval development. This research continues evaluating the effect of these death strains on the expression of genes related to the defense priming in larvae of L. vannamei that come from massive spawning in hatcheries before and after the infection challenge against V. parahaemolyticus.

Keywords: immunostimulation, L. vannamei, hatching, survival

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Authors: Jyoti Sahu, Vinay A. Juvekar

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Electrolytes are often used to bring about salting-in and salting-out of organic molecules and polymers (e.g. polyethylene glycols/proteins) from the aqueous solutions. For quantification of these phenomena, a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict activity coefficient of electrolyte as a function of temperature is needed. The thermodynamics models available in the literature contain a large number of empirical parameters. These parameters are estimated using lower/upper critical solution temperature of the solution in the electrolyte/organic molecule at different temperatures. Since the number of parameters is large, inaccuracy can bethe creep in during their estimation, which can affect the reliability of prediction beyond the range in which these parameters are estimated. Cloud point of solution is related to its free energy through temperature and composition derivative. Hence, the Cloud point measurement can be used for accurate estimation of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters in the model for free energy. Hence, if we use a two pronged procedure in which we first use cloud point of solution to estimate some of the parameters of the thermodynamic model and determine the rest using osmotic coefficient data, we gain on two counts. First, since the parameters, estimated in each of the two steps, are fewer, we achieve higher accuracy of estimation. The second and more important gain is that the resulting model parameters are more sensitive to temperature. This is crucial when we wish to use the model outside temperatures window within which the parameter estimation is sought. The focus of the present work is to prove this proposition. We have used electrolyte (NaCl/Na2CO3)-water-organic molecule (Iso-propanol/ethanol) as the model system. The model of Robinson-Stokes-Glukauf is modified by incorporating the temperature dependent Flory-Huggins interaction parameters. The Helmholtz free energy expression contains, in addition to electrostatic and translational entropic contributions, three Flory-Huggins pairwise interaction contributions viz., and (w-water, p-polymer, s-salt). These parameters depend both on temperature and concentrations. The concentration dependence is expressed in the form of a quadratic expression involving the volume fractions of the interacting species. The temperature dependence is expressed in the form .To obtain the temperature-dependent interaction parameters for organic molecule-water and electrolyte-water systems, Critical solution temperature of electrolyte -water-organic molecules is measured using cloud point measuring apparatus The temperature and composition dependent interaction parameters for electrolyte-water-organic molecule are estimated through measurement of cloud point of solution. The model is used to estimate critical solution temperature (CST) of electrolyte water-organic molecules solution. We have experimentally determined the critical solution temperature of different compositions of electrolyte-water-organic molecule solution and compared the results with the estimates based on our model. The two sets of values show good agreement. On the other hand when only osmotic coefficients are used for estimation of the free energy model, CST predicted using the resulting model show poor agreement with the experiments. Thus, the importance of the CST data in the estimation of parameters of the thermodynamic model is confirmed through this work.

Keywords: concentrated electrolytes, Debye-Hückel theory, interaction parameters, Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf model, Flory-Huggins model, critical solution temperature

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Authors: Sutapa Mondal Roy, Suban K. Sahoo

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The primary aim of this work is to synthesis silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) through environmentally benign routes to avoid any chemical toxicity related undesired side effects. The nanoparticles were stabilized with drug ciprofloxacin (Cp) and were studied for their effectiveness as drug delivery agent. Targeted drug delivery improves the therapeutic potential of drugs at the diseased site as well as lowers the overall dose and undesired side effects. The small size of nanoparticles greatly facilitates the transport of active agents (drugs) across biological membranes and allows them to pass through the smallest capillaries in the body that are 5-6 μm in diameter, and can minimize possible undesired side effects. AgNPs are non-toxic, inert, stable, and has a high binding capacity and thus can be considered as biomaterials. AgNPs were synthesized from the nutrient broth supernatant after the culture of environment-friendly bacteria Bacillus subtilis. The AgNPs were found to show the surface plasmon resonance (SPR) band at 425 nm. The Cp capped Ag nanoparticles formation was complete within 30 minutes, which was confirmed from absorbance spectroscopy. Physico-chemical nature of the AgNPs-Cp system was confirmed by Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) etc. The AgNPs-Cp system size was found to be in the range of 30-40 nm. To monitor the kinetics of drug release from the surface of nanoparticles, the release of Cp was carried out by careful dialysis keeping AgNPs-Cp system inside the dialysis bag at pH 7.4 over time. The drug release was almost complete after 30 hrs. During the drug delivery process, to understand the AgNPs-Cp system in a better way, the sincere theoretical investigation is been performed employing Density Functional Theory. Electronic charge transfer, electron density, binding energy as well as thermodynamic properties like enthalpy, entropy, Gibbs free energy etc. has been predicted. The electronic and thermodynamic properties, governed by the AgNPs-Cp interactions, indicate that the formation of AgNPs-Cp system is exothermic i.e. thermodynamically favorable process. The binding energy and charge transfer analysis implies the optimum stability of the AgNPs-Cp system. Thus, the synthesized Cp-Ag nanoparticles can be effectively used for biological purposes due to its environmentally benign routes of synthesis procedures, which is clean, biocompatible, non-toxic, safe, cost-effective, sustainable and eco-friendly. The Cp-AgNPs as biomaterials can be successfully used for drug delivery procedures due to slow release of drug from nanoparticles over a considerable period of time. The kinetics of the drug release show that this drug-nanoparticle assembly can be effectively used as potential tools for therapeutic applications. The ease of synthetic procedure, lack of possible chemical toxicity and their biological activity along with excellent application as drug delivery agent will open up vista of using nanoparticles as effective and successful drug delivery agent to be used in modern days.

Keywords: silver nanoparticles, ciprofloxacin, density functional theory, drug delivery

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Authors: Mohamed Abouelresh, Subhajit Kumar, Lamidi Babalola, Septriandi Chan, Ali Al Musabeh A., Thadickal V. Joydas, Bruno Pulido

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Neom has a relatively long coastline on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba, which is about 300 kilometres long, in addition to many naturally formed bays along the Red Sea coast. Undoubtedly, these coasts provide an excellent opportunity for tourism and other activities; however, these coastal areas host a wide range of salinity-dependent ecosystems that need to be protected. The main objective of the study was to identify the coastal features, including tidal flats and salt flats, along the NEOM coast. A base map of the study area generated from the satellite images contained the main landform features and, in particular, the boundaries of the inland and coastal sabkhas. A field survey was conducted to map and characterize the intertidal and sabkha landforms. The coastal and inner coastal areas of NEOM are mainly covered by the quaternary sediments, which include gravel sheets, terraces, raised reef limestone, evaporite successions, eolian dunes, and undifferentiated sand/gravel deposits (alluvium, alluvial outwash, wind-blown sand beach). There are different landforms that characterizes the NEOM coast, including rocky coast, tidal zone, and sabkha. Sabkha area ranges between a few to tens of square kilometers. Coastal sabkha extended across the shoreline of NEOM, specifically at Gayal and Sharma areas, while the continental sabkha only existed at Gayal Town. The inland Sabkha at Gayal is mainly composed of a thin (15-25 cm) evaporite crust composed of a dark brown, cavernous, rugged, pitted, colloidal salty sand layer with salt-tolerant vegetation. The inland Sabkha is considered a groundwater-driven sedimentary system as indicated by syndepositional intra-sediment capillary evaporites, which precipitate in both marine and continental salt flats. Gayal coastal Sabkha is made up of tidal inlets, tidal creeks, and lagoons followed in a landward direction with well-developed sabkha layers. The surface sediments of the coastal Sabkha are composed of unlithified calcareous, gypsiferous, coarse to medium sands, and silt with bioclastic fragments underlain by several organic-rich layers. The coastal flat is graded landward into widespread, flat vegetated Sabkhas dissected by tributaries of the fluvial system, which debouches to the Red Sea. The coast from Gayal to Magna through Ras El-Sheikh Humaid is continuously subjected to tidal flows, which create an intertidal depositional system. The intertidal flats at NEOM are extensive, nearly horizontal land forming a very dynamic system in which several physical, chemical, geomorphological, and biological processes are acting simultaneously. The current work provides a field-based identification of the coastal sabkha and intertidal sites at NEOM. However, the mutual interaction between tidal flows and sabkha development, particularly at Gayal, needs to be well understood through comprehensive field and lab analysis.

Keywords: coast, intertidal, deposition, sabkha

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Authors: Catia Correia Caeiro, Kun Guo, Daniel Mills

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Despite its growing interest, emotions are still an understudied cognitive process and their origins are currently the focus of much debate among the scientific community. The use of facial expressions as traditional hallmarks of discrete and holistic emotions created a circular reasoning due to a priori assumptions of meaning and its associated appearance-biases. Ekman and colleagues solved this problem and laid the foundations for the quantitative and systematic study of facial expressions in humans by developing an anatomically-based system (independent from meaning) to measure facial behaviour, the Facial Action Coding System (FACS). One way of investigating emotion cognition processes is by applying comparative psychology methodologies and looking at either closely-related species (e.g. chimpanzees) or phylogenetically distant species sharing similar present adaptation problems (analogy). In this study, the domestic dog was used as a comparative animal model to look at facial expressions in social interactions in parallel with human facial expressions. The orofacial musculature seems to be relatively well conserved across mammal species and the same holds true for the domestic dog. Furthermore, the dog is unique in having shared the same social environment as humans for more than 10,000 years, facing similar challenges and acquiring a unique set of socio-cognitive skills in the process. In this study, the spontaneous facial movements of humans and dogs were compared when interacting with hetero- and conspecifics as well as in solitary contexts. In total, 200 participants were examined with FACS and DogFACS (The Dog Facial Action Coding System): coding tools across four different emotionally-driven contexts: a) Happiness (play and reunion), b) anticipation (of positive reward), c) fear (object or situation triggered), and d) frustration (negation of a resource). A neutral control was added for both species. All four contexts are commonly encountered by humans and dogs, are comparable between species and seem to give rise to emotions from homologous brain systems. The videos used in the study were extracted from public databases (e.g. Youtube) or published scientific databases (e.g. AM-FED). The results obtained allowed us to delineate clear similarities and differences on the flexibility of the facial musculature in the two species. More importantly, they shed light on what common facial movements are a product of the emotion linked contexts (the ones appearing in both species) and which are characteristic of the species, revealing an important clue for the debate on the origin of emotions. Additionally, we were able to examine movements that might have emerged for interspecific communication. Finally, our results are discussed from an evolutionary perspective adding to the recent line of work that supports an ancient shared origin of emotions in a mammal ancestor and defining emotions as mechanisms with a clear adaptive purpose essential on numerous situations, ranging from maintenance of social bonds to fitness and survival modulators.

Keywords: comparative and evolutionary psychology, emotion, facial expressions, FACS

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Authors: Binder Hans

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Cancer is no longer seen as solely a genetic disease where genetic defects such as mutations and copy number variations affect gene regulation and eventually lead to aberrant cell functioning which can be monitored by transcriptome analysis. It has become obvious that epigenetic alterations represent a further important layer of (de-)regulation of gene activity. For example, aberrant DNA methylation is a hallmark of many cancer types, and methylation patterns were successfully used to subtype cancer heterogeneity. Hence, unraveling the interplay between different omics levels such as genome, transcriptome and epigenome is inevitable for a mechanistic understanding of molecular deregulation causing complex diseases such as cancer. This objective requires powerful downstream integrative bioinformatics methods as an essential prerequisite to discover the whole genome mutational, transcriptome and epigenome landscapes of cancer specimen and to discover cancer genesis, progression and heterogeneity. Basic challenges and tasks arise ‘beyond sequencing’ because of the big size of the data, their complexity, the need to search for hidden structures in the data, for knowledge mining to discover biological function and also systems biology conceptual models to deduce developmental interrelations between different cancer states. These tasks are tightly related to cancer biology as an (epi-)genetic disease giving rise to aberrant genomic regulation under micro-environmental control and clonal evolution which leads to heterogeneous cellular states. Machine learning algorithms such as self organizing maps (SOM) represent one interesting option to tackle these bioinformatics tasks. The SOMmethod enables recognizing complex patterns in large-scale data generated by highthroughput omics technologies. It portrays molecular phenotypes by generating individualized, easy to interpret images of the data landscape in combination with comprehensive analysis options. Our image-based, reductionist machine learning methods provide one interesting perspective how to deal with massive data in the discovery of complex diseases, gliomas, melanomas and colon cancer on molecular level. As an important new challenge, we address the combined portrayal of different omics data such as genome-wide genomic, transcriptomic and methylomic ones. The integrative-omics portrayal approach is based on the joint training of the data and it provides separate personalized data portraits for each patient and data type which can be analyzed by visual inspection as one option. The new method enables an integrative genome-wide view on the omics data types and the underlying regulatory modes. It is applied to high and low-grade gliomas and to melanomas where it disentangles transversal and longitudinal molecular heterogeneity in terms of distinct molecular subtypes and progression paths with prognostic impact.

Keywords: integrative bioinformatics, machine learning, molecular mechanisms of cancer, gliomas and melanomas

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Authors: Srijata Mitra, Mobina Parveen, Pranab Roy, Narayan Chandra Chattopadhyay

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Chlorinated hydrocarbon can be a major pollution problem in groundwater as well as soil. Many people interact with these chemicals on daily accidentally or by professionally in the laboratory. One of the most common sources for Chlorinated hydrocarbon contamination of soil and groundwater are industrial effluents. The wide use and discharge of Trichloroethylene (TCE), a volatile chlorohydrocarbon from chemical industry, led to major water pollution in rural areas. TCE is an mainly used as an industrial metal degreaser in industries. Biotransformation of TCE to the potent carcinogen vinyl chloride (VC) by consortia of anaerobic bacteria might have role for the above purpose. For these reasons, the aim of current study was to isolate and characterized the genes involved in TCE metabolism and also to investigate the in silico study of those genes. To our knowledge, only one aromatic dioxygenase system, the toluene dioxygenase in Pseudomonas putida F1 has been shown to be involved in TCE degradation. This is first instance where Bacillus cereus group being used in biodegradation of trichloroethylene. A novel bacterial strain 2479 was isolated from oil depot site at Rajbandh, Durgapur (West Bengal, India) by enrichment culture technique. It was identified based on polyphasic approach and ribotyping. The bacterium was gram positive, rod shaped, endospore forming and capable of degrading trichloroethylene as the sole carbon source. On the basis of phylogenetic data and Fatty Acid Methyl Ester Analysis, strain 2479 should be placed within the genus Bacillus and species cereus. However, the present isolate (strain 2479) is unique and sharply different from the usual Bacillus strains in its biodegrading nature. Fujiwara test was done to estimate that the strain 2479 could degrade TCE efficiently. The gene for TCE biodegradation was PCR amplified from genomic DNA of Bacillus cereus 2479 by using todC1 gene specific primers. The 600bp amplicon was cloned into expression vector pUC I8 in the E. coli host XL1-Blue and expressed under the control of lac promoter and nucleotide sequence was determined. The gene sequence was deposited at NCBI under the Accession no. GU183105. In Silico approach involved predicting the physico-chemical properties of deduced Tce1 protein by using ProtParam tool. The tce1 gene contained 342 bp long ORF encoding 114 amino acids with a predicted molecular weight 12.6 kDa and the theoretical pI value of the polypeptide was 5.17, molecular formula: C559H886N152O165S8, total number of atoms: 1770, aliphatic index: 101.93, instability index: 28.60, Grand Average of Hydropathicity (GRAVY): 0.152. Three differentially expressed proteins (97.1, 40 and 30 kDa) were directly involved in TCE biodegradation, found to react immunologically to the antibodies raised against TCE inducible proteins in Western blot analysis. The present study suggested that cloned gene product (TCE1) was capable of degrading TCE as verified chemically.

Keywords: cloning, Bacillus cereus, in silico analysis, TCE

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Authors: Piotr A. Kowalski, Kasper Sapala, Wiktor Warchalowski

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PM10 is a suspended dust that primarily has a negative effect on the respiratory system. PM10 is responsible for attacks of coughing and wheezing, asthma or acute, violent bronchitis. Indirectly, PM10 also negatively affects the rest of the body, including increasing the risk of heart attack and stroke. Unfortunately, Poland is a country that cannot boast of good air quality, in particular, due to large PM concentration levels. Therefore, based on the dense network of Airly sensors, it was decided to deal with the problem of prediction of suspended particulate matter concentration. Due to the very complicated nature of this issue, the Machine Learning approach was used. For this purpose, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) neural networks have been adopted, these currently being the leading information processing methods in the field of computational intelligence. The aim of this research is to show the influence of particular CNN network parameters on the quality of the obtained forecast. The forecast itself is made on the basis of parameters measured by Airly sensors and is carried out for the subsequent day, hour after hour. The evaluation of learning process for the investigated models was mostly based upon the mean square error criterion; however, during the model validation, a number of other methods of quantitative evaluation were taken into account. The presented model of pollution prediction has been verified by way of real weather and air pollution data taken from the Airly sensor network. The dense and distributed network of Airly measurement devices enables access to current and archival data on air pollution, temperature, suspended particulate matter PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10, CAQI levels, as well as atmospheric pressure and air humidity. In this investigation, PM2.5, and PM10, temperature and wind information, as well as external forecasts of temperature and wind for next 24h served as inputted data. Due to the specificity of the CNN type network, this data is transformed into tensors and then processed. This network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and many hidden layers. In the hidden layers, convolutional and pooling operations are performed. The output of this system is a vector containing 24 elements that contain prediction of PM10 concentration for the upcoming 24 hour period. Over 1000 models based on CNN methodology were tested during the study. During the research, several were selected out that give the best results, and then a comparison was made with the other models based on linear regression. The numerical tests carried out fully confirmed the positive properties of the presented method. These were carried out using real ‘big’ data. Models based on the CNN technique allow prediction of PM10 dust concentration with a much smaller mean square error than currently used methods based on linear regression. What's more, the use of neural networks increased Pearson's correlation coefficient (R²) by about 5 percent compared to the linear model. During the simulation, the R² coefficient was 0.92, 0.76, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.73 for 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, and 24th hour of prediction respectively.

Keywords: air pollution prediction (forecasting), machine learning, regression task, convolution neural networks

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Authors: Mahnaz Khalafehnilsaz, Rozina Rahnama

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Introduction: The aging process has been linked to a wide range of non-communicable diseases that cause a loss of health-related quality of life. This process can be worsened if an active and healthy lifestyle is not followed by adults, especially in the workplace. This setting not only may create a sedentary lifestyle but will lead to obesity and overweight in the long term and create unhealthy and inactive aging. In addition, eating habits are always known to be associated with active aging. Therefore, it is very valuable to know the eating patterns of people at work in order to detect and prevent diseases in the coming years. This study aimed to design and test a model to improve eating habits among employees at an industrial complex as a practical strategy. Material and method: The present research was a mixed-method study with a subsequent exploratory design which was carried out in two phases, qualitative and quantitative, in 2018 year. In the first step, participants were selected by purposive sampling (n=34) to ensure representation of different job roles; hours worked, gender, grade, and age groups, and semi-structured interviews were used. All interviews were conducted in the workplace and were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using the Strauss and Corbin approach. The interview question was, “what were their experiences of eating at work, and how could these nutritional habits affect their health in old age.” Finally, a total of 1500 basic codes were oriented at the open coding step, and they were merged together to create the 17 classes, and six concepts and a conceptual model were designed. The second phase of the study was conducted in the form of a cross-sectional study. After verification of the research tool, the developed questionnaire was examined in a group of employees. In order to test the conceptual model of the study, a total of 500 subjects were included in psychometry. Findings: Six main concepts have been known, including 1. undesirable control of stress, 2. lack of eating knowledge, 3. effect of the social network, 4. lack of motivation for healthy habits, 5. environmental-organizational intensifier, 6. unhealthy eating behaviors. The core concept was “Motivation Loss to do preventive behavior.” The main constructs of the motivational-based model for the promotion of eating habits are “modification and promote of eating habits,” increase of knowledge and competency, convey of healthy nutrition behavior culture and effecting of behavioral model especially in older age, desirable of control stress. Conclusion: A key factor for unhealthy eating behavior at the workplace is a lack of motivation, which can be an obstacle to conduct preventive behaviors at work that can affect the healthy aging process in the long term. The motivational-based model could be considered an effective conceptual framework and instrument for designing interventions for the promotion to create healthy and active aging.

Keywords: aging, eating habits, older age, workplace

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Authors: Anja I. Petrov, Milica B. Veljković, Marija M. Ćorović, Ana D. Milivojević, Milica B. Simović, Katarina M. Banjanac, Dejan I. Bezbradica

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One of the fundamental requirements for overall human well-being is a stable and balanced microbiome. Aside from the microorganisms that reside within the body, a large number of microorganisms, especially bacteria, swarming the human skin is in homeostasis with the host and represents a skin microbiota. Even though the immune system of the skin is capable of distinguishing between commensal and potentially harmful transient bacteria, the cutaneous microbial balance can be disrupted under certain circumstances. In that case, a reduction in the skin microbiota diversity, as well as changes in metabolic activity, results in dermal infections and inflammation. Probiotics and prebiotics have the potential to play a significant role in the treatment of these skin disorders. The most common resident bacteria found on the skin, Staphylococcus epidermidis, can act as a potential skin probiotic, contributing to the protection of healthy skin from pathogen colonization, such as Staphylococcus aureus, which is related to atopic dermatitis exacerbation. However, as it is difficult to meet regulations in cosmetic products, another therapy approach could be topical prebiotic supplementation of the skin microbiota. In recent research, polyphenols are attracting scientists' interest as biomolecules with possible prebiotic effects on the skin microbiota. This research aimed to determine how herbal extracts rich in different polyphenolic compounds (lemon balm, St. John's wort, coltsfoot, pine needle, and yarrow) affected the growth of S. epidermidis and S. aureus. The first part of the study involved screening plants to determine if they could be regarded as probable candidates to be skin prebiotics. The effect of each plant on bacterial growth was examined by supplementing the nutrient medium with their extracts and comparing it with control samples (without extract). The results obtained after 24 h of incubation showed that all tested extracts influenced the growth of the examined bacteria to some extent. Since lemon balm and St. John's wort extracts displayed bactericidal activity against S. epidermidis, whereas coltsfoot inhibited both bacteria equally, they were not explored further. On the other hand, pine needles and yarrow extract led to an increase in S. epidermidis/S. aureus ratio, making them prospective candidates to be used as skin prebiotics. By examining the prebiotic effect of two extracts at different concentrations, it was revealed that, in the case of yarrow, 0.1% of extract dry matter in the fermentation medium was optimal, while for the pine needle extract, a concentration of 0.05% was preferred, since it selectively stimulated S. epidermidis growth and inhibited S. aureus proliferation. Additionally, the total polyphenols and flavonoid content of the two extracts were determined, revealing different concentrations and polyphenol profiles. Since yarrow and pine extracts affected the growth of skin bacteria in a dose-dependent manner, by carefully selecting the quantities of these extracts, and thus polyphenols content, it is possible to achieve desirable alterations of skin microbiota composition, which may be suitable for the treatment of atopic dermatitis.

Keywords: herbal extracts, polyphenols, skin microbiota, skin prebiotics

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Authors: Shubhangi Roy

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Relational Contracts (informal understandings not enforceable by law) are a common feature of most economies. However, their dominance is higher in developing countries. Such informality of economic sectors is often co-related to lower economic growth. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether informal arrangements i.e. relational contracts are a cause or symptom of lower levels of economic and/or institutional development. The methodology followed involves an initial survey of 150 test subjects in Northern India. The subjects are all members of occupations where they frequently transact ensuring uniformity in transaction volume. However, the subjects are from varied socio-economic backgrounds to ensure sufficient variance in transaction values allowing us to understand the relationship between the amount of money involved to the method of transaction used, if any. Questions asked are quantitative and qualitative with an aim to observe both the behavior and motivation behind such behavior. An overarching similarity observed during the survey across all subjects’ responses is that in an economy like India with pervasive corruption and delayed litigation, economy participants have created alternative social sanctions to deal with non-performers. In a society that functions predominantly on caste, class and gender classifications, these sanctions could, in fact, be more cumbersome for a potential rule-breaker than the legal ramifications. It, therefore, is a symptom of weak formal regulatory enforcement and dispute settlement mechanism. Additionally, the study bifurcates such informal arrangements into two separate systems - a) when it exists in addition to and augments a legal framework creating an efficient socio-legal equilibrium or; b) in conflict with the legal system in place. This categorization is an important step in regulating informal arrangements. Instead of considering the entire gamut of such arrangements as counter-development, it helps decision-makers understand when to dismantle (latter) and when to pivot around existing informal systems (former). The paper hypothesizes that those social arrangements that support the formal legal frameworks allow for cheaper enforcement of regulations with lower enforcement costs burden on the state mechanism. On the other hand, norms which contradict legal rules will undermine the formal framework. Law infringement, in presence of these norms, will have no impact on the reputation of the business or individual outside of the punishment imposed under the law. It is especially exacerbated in the Indian legal system where enforcement of penalties for non-performance of contracts is low. In such a situation, the social norm will be adhered to more strictly by the individuals rather than the legal norms. This greatly undermines the role of regulations. The paper concludes with recommendations that allow policy-makers and legal systems to encourage the former category of informal arrangements while discouraging norms that undermine legitimate policy objectives. Through this investigation, we will be able to expand our understanding of tools of market development beyond regulations. This will allow academics and policymakers to harness social norms for less disruptive and more lasting growth.

Keywords: distribution of income, emerging economies, relational contracts, sample survey, social norms

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Authors: Feyi Olorunshola

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Over the last few years, the senior travel market has been noted for its potential in the wider tourism industry. The tourism sector includes the hotel and hospitality, travel, transportation, and several other subdivisions to make it economically viable. In particular, the hotel attracts a substantial part of the expenditure in tourism activities as when people plan to travel, suitable accommodation for relaxation, dining, entertainment and so on is paramount to their decision-making. The global retail value of the hotel as of 2018 was significant for tourism. But, despite indications of the hotel to the tourism industry at large, very few empirical studies are available to establish how this sector can leverage on the senior demographic to achieve competitive advantage. Predominantly, studies on the mature market have focused on destination tourism, with a limited investigation on the hotel which makes a significant contribution to tourism. Also, several scholarly studies have demonstrated the importance of the senior travel market to the hotel, yet there is very little empirical research in the field which has explored the driving factors that will become the accepted new normal for this niche segment post-pandemic. Giving that the hotel already operates in a highly saturated business environment, and on top of this pre-existing challenge, the ongoing global health outbreak has further put the sector in a vulnerable position. Therefore, the hotel especially the full-service luxury category must evolve rapidly for it to survive in the current business environment. The hotel can no longer rely on corporate travelers to generate higher revenue since the unprecedented wake of the pandemic in 2020 many organizations have invented a different approach of conducting their businesses online, therefore, the hotel needs to anticipate a significant drop in business travellers. However, the rooms and the rest of the facilities must be occupied to keep their business operating. The way forward for the hotel lies in the leisure sector, but the question now is to focus on the potential demographics of travelers, in this case, the seniors who have been repeatedly recognized as the lucrative market because of increase discretionary income, availability of time and the global population trends. To achieve the study objectives, a mixed-method approach will be utilized drawing on both qualitative (netnography) and quantitative (survey) methods, cognitive and decision-making theories (means-end chain) and competitive theories to identify the salient drivers explaining senior hotel choice and its influence on their decision-making. The target population are repeated seniors’ age 65 years and over who are UK resident, and from the top tourist market to the UK (USA, Germany, and France). Structural equation modelling will be employed to analyze the datasets. The theoretical implication is the development of new concepts using a robust research design, and as well as advancing existing framework to hotel study. Practically, it will provide the hotel management with the latest information to design a competitive marketing strategy and activities to target the mature market post-pandemic and over a long period.

Keywords: competitive advantage, covid-19, full-service hotel, five-star, luxury hotels

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Authors: A.H.Y. Lai, C. Teyra

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In Taiwan, there are 16 official indigenous groups, accounting for 2.3% of the total population. Like other indigenous populations worldwide, indigenous peoples in Taiwan have poorer mental health because of their history of oppression and colonisation. Amid the negative narratives, the ethnic identity of cultural minorities is their unique psychological and cultural asset. Moreover, positive socialisation is found to be related to strong ethnic identity. Based on Phinney’s theory on ethnic identity development and social support theory, this study adopted a strength-based approach conceptualising ethnic identity as the central organising principle that linked perceived social support and mental health among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Aims. Overall aim is to examine the effect of ethnic identity and social support on mental health. Specific aims were to examine : (1) the association between ethnic identity and mental health; (2) the association between perceived social support and mental health ; (3) the indirect effect of ethnic identity linking perceived social support and mental health. Methods. Participants were indigenous adults in Taiwan (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Respondent-driven sampling was used. Standardised measurements were: Ethnic Identity Scale(6-item); Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender and economic satisfaction. A four-stage structural equation modelling (SEM) with robust maximin likelihood estimation was employed using Mplus8.0. Step 1: A measurement model was built and tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Step 2: Factor covariates were re-specified as direct effects in the SEM. Covariates were added. The direct effects of (1) ethnic identity and social support on depression and anxiety and (2) social support on ethnic identity were tested. The indirect effect of ethnic identity was examined with the bootstrapping technique. Results. The CFA model showed satisfactory fit statistics: x^2(df)=869.69(608), p<.05; Comparative ft index (CFI)/ Tucker-Lewis fit index (TLI)=0.95/0.94; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual (SRMR)=0.05. Ethnic identity is represented by two latent factors: ethnic identity-commitment and ethnic identity-exploration. Depression, anxiety and social support are single-factor latent variables. For the SEM, model fit statistics were: x^2(df)=779.26(527), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.94/0.93; RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.30) and social support (b=-0.33) had direct negative effects on depression, but ethnic identity-exploration did not. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.43) and social support (b=-0.31) had direct negative effects on anxiety, while identity-exploration (b=0.24) demonstrated a positive effect. Social support had direct positive effects on ethnic identity-exploration (b=0.26) and ethnic identity-commitment (b=0.31). Mediation analysis demonstrated the indirect effect of ethnic identity-commitment linking social support and depression (b=0.22). Implications: Results underscore the role of social support in preventing depression via ethnic identity commitment among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Adopting the strength-based approach, mental health practitioners can mobilise indigenous peoples’ commitment to their group to promote their well-being.

Keywords: ethnic identity, indigenous population, mental health, perceived social support

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Authors: Andrey Cherdantsev, Mikhail Cherdantsev, Sergey Isaenkov, Dmitriy Markovich

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In annular gas-liquid flow, liquid flows as a film along pipe walls sheared by high-velocity gas stream. Film surface is covered by large-scale disturbance waves which affect pressure drop and heat transfer in the system and are necessary for entrainment of liquid droplets from film surface into the core of gas stream. Disturbance waves are a highly complex and their properties are affected by numerous parameters. One of such aspects is flow development, i.e., change of flow properties with the distance from the inlet. In the present work, this question is studied using brightness-based laser-induced fluorescence (BBLIF) technique. This method enables one to perform simultaneous measurements of local film thickness in large number of points with high sampling frequency. In the present experiments first 50 cm of upward and downward annular flow in a vertical pipe of 11.7 mm i.d. is studied with temporal resolution of 10 kHz and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm. Thus, spatiotemporal evolution of film surface can be investigated, including scenarios of formation, acceleration and coalescence of disturbance waves. The behaviour of disturbance waves' velocity depending on phases flow rates and downstream distance was investigated. Besides measuring the waves properties, the goal of the work was to investigate the interrelation between disturbance waves properties and integral characteristics of the flow such as interfacial shear stress and flow rate of dispersed phase. In particular, it was shown that the initial acceleration of disturbance waves, defined by the value of shear stress, linearly decays with downstream distance. This lack of acceleration which may even lead to deceleration is related to liquid entrainment. Flow rate of disperse phase linearly grows with downstream distance. During entrainment events, liquid is extracted directly from disturbance waves, reducing their mass, area of interaction to the gas shear and, hence, velocity. Passing frequency of disturbance waves at each downstream position was measured automatically with a new algorithm of identification of characteristic lines of individual disturbance waves. Scenarios of coalescence of individual disturbance waves were identified. Transition from initial high-frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz waves appearing at the inlet to highly nonlinear disturbance waves with lower frequency was studied near the inlet using 3D realisation of BBLIF method in the same cylindrical channel and in a rectangular duct with cross-section of 5 mm by 50 mm. It was shown that the initial waves are generally two-dimensional but are promptly broken into localised three-dimensional wavelets. Coalescence of these wavelets leads to formation of quasi two-dimensional disturbance waves. Using cross-correlation analysis, loss and restoration of two-dimensionality of film surface with downstream distance were studied quantitatively. It was shown that all the processes occur closer to the inlet at higher gas velocities.

Keywords: annular flow, disturbance waves, entrainment, flow development

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Authors: Shomaila Sadaf, Margarethe Olbertz-Siitonen

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This study looks at identity and othering in discourses around sensitive issues in social media. More specifically, the study explores the multimodal resources and narratives through which the other is formed, and identities are ascribed in online spaces. As an integral part of social life, media spaces have become an important site for negotiating and ascribing identities. In line with recent research, identity is seen hereas constructions of belonging which go hand in hand with processes of in- and out-group formations that in some cases may lead to othering. Previous findings underline that identities are neither fixed nor limited but rather contextual, intersectional, and interactively achieved. The goal of this study is to explore and develop an understanding of how people co-construct the ‘other’ and ascribe certain identities in social media using multiple modes. In the beginning of the year 2018, the British government decided to include relationships, sexual orientation, and sex education into the curriculum of state funded primary schools. However, the addition of information related to LGBTQ+in the curriculum has been met with resistance, particularly from religious parents.For example, the British Muslim community has voiced their concerns and protested against the actions taken by the British government. YouTube has been used by news companies to air video stories covering the protest and narratives of the protestors along with the position ofschool officials. The analysis centers on a YouTube video dealing with the protest ofa local group of parents against the addition of information about LGBTQ+ in the curriculum in the UK. The video was posted in 2019. By the time of this study, the videos had approximately 169,000 views andaround 6000 comments. In deference to multimodal nature of YouTube videos, this study utilizes multimodal discourse analysis as a method of choice. The study is still ongoing and therefore has not yet yielded any final results. However, the initial analysis indicates a hierarchy of ascribing identities in the data. Drawing on multimodal resources, the media works with social categorizations throughout the documentary, presenting and classifying involved conflicting parties in the light of their own visible and audible identifications. The protesters can be seen to construct a strong group identity as Muslim parents (e.g., clothing and reference to shared values). While the video appears to be designed as a documentary that puts forward facts, the media does not seem to succeed in taking a neutral position consistently throughout the video. At times, the use of images, soundsand language contributes to the formation of “us” vs. “them”, where the audience is implicitly encouraged to pick a side. Only towards the end of the documentary this problematic opposition is addressed and critically reflected through an expert interview that is – interestingly – visually located outside the previously presented ‘battlefield’. This study contributes to the growing understanding of the discursive construction of the ‘other’ in social media. Videos available online are a rich source for examining how the different social actors ascribe multiple identities and form the other.

Keywords: identity, multimodal discourse analysis, othering, youtube

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Authors: Michal Pachocki

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This study investigates the effects of mobility in the context of a different environment and work culture through analysing the learners perception of their international work experience. Since this kind of professional training abroad is becoming more popular in Europe, mainly due to the EU funding opportunities, it is of paramount importance to assess its long-term impact on educational and career paths of former students. Moreover, the tracer study aimed at defining what professional, social and intercultural competencies were gained or developed by the interns and to which extent those competences proved to be useful meeting the labor market requirements. Being a populous EU member state which actively modernizes its vocational education system (also with European funds), Poland can serve as an illustrative case study to investigate the above described research problems. However, the examined processes are most certainly universal, wherever mobility is included in the learning process. The target group of this research was the former mobility participants and the study was conducted using quantitative and qualitative methods, such as the online survey with over 2 600 questionnaires completed by the former mobility participants; -individual in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 20 Polish graduates already present in the labour market; - 5 focus group interviews (FGIs) with 60 current students of the Polish vocational schools, who have recently returned from the training abroad. As the adopted methodology included a data triangulation, the collected findings have also been supplemented with data obtained by the desk research (mainly contextual information and statistical summary of mobility implementation). The results of this research – to be presented in full scope within the conference presentation – include the participants’ perception of their work mobility. The vast majority of graduates agrees that such an experience has had a significant impact on their professional careers and claims that they would recommend training abroad to persons who are about to enter the labor market. Moreover, in their view, such form of practical training going beyond formal education provided them with an opportunity to try their hand in the world of work. This allowed them – as they accounted for them – to get acquainted with a work system and context different from the ones experienced in Poland. Although the work mobility becomes an important element of the learning process in the growing number of Polish schools, this study reveals that many sending institutions suffer from a lack of the coherent strategy for planning domestic and foreign training programmes. Nevertheless, the significant number of graduates claims that such a synergy improves the quality of provided training. Despite that, the research proved that the transnational mobilities exert an impact on their future careers and personal development. However, such impact is, in their opinion, dependant on other factors, such as length of the training period, the nature and extent of work, recruitment criteria and the quality of organizational arrangement and mentoring provided to learners. This may indicate the salience of the sending and receiving institutions organizational capacity to deal with mobility.

Keywords: learning mobility, transnational training, vocational education and training graduates, tracer study

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Yvonne Reinwald, Nick Poulson, Alicia El Haj, Chung See, Mike Somekh, Melissa Mather

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Biomedical imaging of native tissue using light offers the potential to obtain excellent structural and functional information in a non-invasive manner with good temporal resolution. Image contrast can be derived from intrinsic absorption, fluorescence, or scatter, or through the use of extrinsic contrast. A major challenge in applying optical microscopy to in vivo tissue imaging is the effects of light attenuation which limits light penetration depth and achievable imaging resolution. Recently Selective Plane Illumination Microscopy (SPIM) has been used to map the 3D distribution of fluorophores dispersed in biological structures. In this approach, a focused sheet of light is used to illuminate the sample from the side to excite fluorophores within the sample of interest. Images are formed based on detection of fluorescence emission orthogonal to the illumination axis. By scanning the sample along the detection axis and acquiring a stack of images, 3D volumes can be obtained. The combination of rapid image acquisition speeds with the low photon dose to samples optical sectioning provides SPIM is an attractive approach for imaging biological samples in 3D. To date all implementations of SPIM rely on the use of fluorescence reporters be that endogenous or exogenous. This approach has the disadvantage that in the case of exogenous probes the specimens are altered from their native stage rendering them unsuitable for in vivo studies and in general fluorescence emission is weak and transient. Here we present for the first time to our knowledge a label-free implementation of SPIM that has downstream applications in the clinical setting. The experimental set up used in this work incorporates both label-free and fluorescent illumination arms in addition to a high specification camera that can be partitioned for simultaneous imaging of both fluorescent emission and scattered light from intrinsic sources of optical contrast in the sample being studied. This work first involved calibration of the imaging system and validation of the label-free method with well characterised fluorescent microbeads embedded in agarose gel. 3D constructs of mammalian cells cultured in agarose gel with varying cell concentrations were then imaged. A time course study to track cell proliferation in the 3D construct was also carried out and finally a native tissue sample was imaged. For each sample multiple images were obtained by scanning the sample along the axis of detection and 3D maps reconstructed. The results obtained validated label-free SPIM as a viable approach for imaging cells in a 3D gel construct and native tissue. This technique has the potential use in a near-patient environment that can provide results quickly and be implemented in an easy to use manner to provide more information with improved spatial resolution and depth penetration than current approaches.

Keywords: bioimaging, optics, selective plane illumination microscopy, tissue imaging

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Authors: Jeronimo Cox, Tomonari Furukawa

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Magnetometers have become more popular in inertial measurement units (IMU) for their ability to correct estimations using the earth's magnetic field. Accelerometer and gyroscope-based packages fail with dead-reckoning errors accumulated over time. Localization in robotic applications with magnetometer-inclusive IMUs has become popular as a way to track the odometry of slower-speed robots. With high-speed motions, the accumulated error increases over smaller periods of time, making them difficult to track with IMU. Tracking a high-speed motion is especially difficult with limited observability. Visual obstruction of motion leaves motion-tracking cameras unusable. When motions are too dynamic for estimation techniques reliant on the observability of the gravity vector, the use of magnetometers is further justified. As available magnetometer calibration methods are limited with the assumption that background magnetic fields are uniform, estimation in nonuniform magnetic fields is problematic. Hard iron distortion is a distortion of the magnetic field by other objects that produce magnetic fields. This kind of distortion is often observed as the offset from the origin of the center of data points when a magnetometer is rotated. The magnitude of hard iron distortion is dependent on proximity to distortion sources. Soft iron distortion is more related to the scaling of the axes of magnetometer sensors. Hard iron distortion is more of a contributor to the error of attitude estimation with magnetometers. Indoor environments or spaces inside ferrite-based structures, such as building reinforcements or a vehicle, often cause distortions with proximity. As positions correlate to areas of distortion, methods of magnetometer localization include the production of spatial mapping of magnetic field and collection of distortion signatures to better aid location tracking. The goal of this paper is to compare magnetometer methods that don't need pre-productions of magnetic field maps. Mapping the magnetic field in some spaces can be costly and inefficient. Dynamic measurement fusion is used to track the motion of a multi-link system with us. Conventional calibration by data collection of rotation at a static point, real-time estimation of calibration parameters each time step, and using two magnetometers for determining local hard iron distortion are compared to confirm the robustness and accuracy of each technique. With opposite-facing magnetometers, hard iron distortion can be accounted for regardless of position, Rather than assuming that hard iron distortion is constant regardless of positional change. The motion measured is a repeatable planar motion of a two-link system connected by revolute joints. The links are translated on a moving base to impulse rotation of the links. Equipping the joints with absolute encoders and recording the motion with cameras to enable ground truth comparison to each of the magnetometer methods. While the two-magnetometer method accounts for local hard iron distortion, the method fails where the magnetic field direction in space is inconsistent.

Keywords: motion tracking, sensor fusion, magnetometer, state estimation

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Authors: Vanessa Do, Lauren Smith, Leslie Carver

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It is widely known that individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may exhibit sensitivity to stimuli. Even at a young age, they tend to display stimuli-related discomfort in their behavior during play. Play serves a crucial role in a child’s early years as it helps support healthy brain development, socio-emotional skills, and adaptation to their environment There is research dedicated to studying infant preferences for toys, especially in regard to: gender preferences, the advantages of promoting play, and the caregiver’s role in their child’s play routines. However, there is a disproportionate amount of literature examining how play patterns may differ in children with sensory sensitivity, such as children diagnosed with ASD. Prior literature has studied and found supporting evidence that individuals with ASD have deficits in social communication and have increased presence of repetitive behaviors and/or restricted interests, which also display in early childhood play patterns. This study aims to examine potential differences in toy preference between infants with (FH+) and without (FH-) a familial history of ASD ages 6. 9, and 12 months old. More specifically, this study will address the question, “do FH+ infants tend to play more with toys that require less social engagement compared to FH- infants?” Infants and their caregivers were recruited and asked to engage in a free-play session in their homes that lasted approximately 5 minutes. The sessions were recorded and later coded offline for engagement behaviors categorized by toy; each toy that the infants interacted with was coded as belonging to one of 6 categories: sensory (designed to stimulate one or more senses such as light-up toys or musical toys) , construction (e.g., building blocks, rubber suction cups), vehicles (e.g., toy cars), instructional (require steps to accomplish a goal such as flip phones or books), imaginative (e.g., dolls, stuffed animals), and miscellaneous (toys that do not fit into these categories). Toy engagement was defined as the infant looking and touching the toy (ILT) or looking at the toy while their caregiver was holding it (IL-CT). Results reported include/will include the proportion of time the infant was actively engaged with the toy out of the total usable video time per subject — distractions observed during the session were excluded from analysis. Data collection is still ongoing; however, the prediction is that FH+ infants will have higher engagement with sensory and construction toys as they require the least amount of social effort. Furthermore, FH+ infants will have the least engagement with the imaginative toys as prior literature has supported the claim that individuals with ASD have a decreased likelihood to engage in play that requires pretend play and other social skills. Looking at what toys are more or less engaging to FH+ infants is important as it provides significant contributions to their healthy cognitive, social, and emotional development. As play is one of the first ways for a child to understand the complexities of the larger world, the findings of this study may help guide further research into encouraging play with toys that are more engaging and sensory-sensitive for children with ASD.

Keywords: autism engagement, children’s play, early development, free-play, infants, toy

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Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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