Search results for: stock price prediction

Authors: Timothy Onyenobi

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Accidental fires and its dynamic as it relates to building compartmentation and the impact of the compartment morphology, is still an on-going area of study; especially with the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling methods. With better knowledge on this subject come better solution recommendations by fire engineers. Interviews were carried out for this study where it was identified that the response perspectives to accidental fire were different with the fire engineer providing qualitative data which is based on “what is expected in real fires” and the fire fighters provided information on “what actually obtains in real fires”. This further led to a study and analysis of two real and comprehensively instrumented fire experiments: the Open Plan Office Project by National Institute of Standard and Technology (NIST) USA (to study time to flashover) and the TF2000 project by the Building Research Establishment (BRE) UK (to test for conformity with Building Regulation requirements). The findings from the analysis of the experiments revealed the relative yet critical weakness of fire prediction using a CFD model (usually used by fire engineers) as well as explained the differences in response perspectives of the fire engineers and firefighters from the interview analysis.

Keywords: CFD, compartment fire, experiment, fire fighters, fire engineers

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

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The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Shu-Han Hsu, Jiho Yoon, Chwen Sheu

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With the rapidly growing of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency, various industries which include tourism has added in cryptocurrency as the payment method of their transaction. More and more tourism companies accept payments in digital currency for flights, hotel reservations, transportation, and more. For travellers and tourists, using cryptocurrency as a payment method has become a way to circumvent costs and prevent risks. Understanding volatility dynamics and interdependencies between standard currency and cryptocurrency is important for appropriate financial risk management to assist policy-makers and investors in marking more informed decisions. The purpose of this paper has been to understand and explain the risk spillover effects between six major cryptocurrencies and the top ten most traded standard currencies. Using data for the daily closing price of cryptocurrencies and currency exchange rates from 7 August 2015 to 10 December 2019, with 1,133 observations. The diagonal BEKK model was used to analyze the co-volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrency returns and exchange rate returns, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility. The empirical results show there are co-volatility spillover effects between the cryptocurrency returns and GBP/USD, CNY/USD and MXN/USD exchange rate returns. Therefore, currencies (British Pound, Chinese Yuan and Mexican Peso) and cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Tether, Litecoin and Stellar) are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

Keywords: blockchain, co-volatility effects, cryptocurrencies, diagonal BEKK model, exchange rates, risk spillovers

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Hossein Agheshlui, Stephan Matthai

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In fractured rock masses open fractures tend to act as the main pathways of fluid flow. The permeability of a rock fracture depends on its aperture. The change of aperture with stress can cause a many-orders-of-magnitude change in the hydraulic conductivity at moderate compressive stress levels. In this study, the change of aperture in fragmented rocks is investigated using finite element analysis. A full 3D mechanical model of a simplified version of an outcrop analog is created and studied. A constant initial aperture value is applied to all fractures. Different far field stresses are applied and the change of aperture is monitored considering the block to block interaction. The fragmented rock layer is assumed to be sandwiched between softer layers. Frictional contact forces are defined at the layer boundaries as well as among contacting rock blocks. For a given in situ stress, the blocks slide and contact each other, resulting in new aperture distributions. A map of changed aperture is produced after applying the in situ stress and compared to the initial apertures. Subsequently, the permeability of the system before and after the stress application is compared.

Keywords: fractured rocks, mechanical model, aperture change due to stress, frictional interface

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Authors: Youngji Yoo, Seung Hwan Park, Daewoong An, Sung-Shick Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

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The yield management system is very important to produce high-quality semiconductor chips in the semiconductor manufacturing process. In order to improve quality of semiconductors, various tests are conducted in the post fabrication (FAB) process. During the test process, large amount of data are collected and the data includes a lot of information about defect. In general, the defect on the wafer is the main causes of yield loss. Therefore, analyzing the defect data is necessary to improve performance of yield prediction. The wafer bin map (WBM) is one of the data collected in the test process and includes defect information such as the fail bit patterns. The fail bit has characteristics of spatial point patterns. Therefore, this paper proposes the feature extraction method using the spatial point pattern analysis. Actual data obtained from the semiconductor process is used for experiments and the experimental result shows that the proposed method is more accurately recognize the fail bit patterns.

Keywords: semiconductor, wafer bin map, feature extraction, spatial point patterns, contour map

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Yegetaneh T. Dejenu, Delesa Kejela, Abdulak Alemu

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From the earliest time of humankind, the trenches were used for water to flow along and for soldiers to hide in during enemy attacks. Now a day due to civilization, the needs of the human being become endless, and the living condition becomes sophisticated. The unbalance between the needs and resource obligates them to find the way to manage this condition. The attempt to use the scares resource in very efficient and effective way makes the trench an endeavor practice in the world in all countries. A trencher is a construction equipment used to dig trenches, especially for laying pipes or cables, installing drainage, irrigation, installing fencing, and in preparation for trench warfare. It is a machine used to make a ditch by cutting the soil ground and effectively used in agricultural irrigation. The most common types of trencher are wheel trencher, chain trencher, micro trencher, portable trencher. In Ethiopia people have been trenching the ditch for many purposes and the tools they are using are Pickaxe, Shovel and some are using Micro Excavators. The adverse effect of using traditional equipment is, time and energy consuming, less productive, difficult and more man power is required. Hence it is necessary to design and produce low price, and simple machine to narrow this gap. Our objective is to design and model a light duty trencher that is used for trenching the ground or soil for making ditch and used for agricultural, ground cabling, ground piping, and drainage system. The designed machine trenches, maximum of 1-meter depth, 30 cm width, and the required length. The working mechanism is fully hydraulic, and the engine with 12.7 hp will provide suitable power for the pump that delivers 23 l/min at 1500 rpm to drive hydraulic motors and actuators.

Keywords: hydraulics, modelling, trenching, ditch

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Authors: Chejarla Raghunathababu, E. Logashanmugam

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An antenna is an assortment of linked devices that function together to transmit and receive radio waves as a single antenna. Antennas occur in a variety of sizes and forms, but the microstrip patch antenna outperforms other types in terms of effectiveness and prediction. These antennas are easy to generate with discreet benefits. Nevertheless, the antenna's effectiveness will be affected because of the patch's shape above a thick dielectric substrate. As a result, a double-pole rectangular microstrip antenna with nanofillers was suggested in this study. By employing nano-composite substances (Fumed Silica and Aluminum Oxide), which are composites of graphene with nanofillers, the physical characteristics of the microstrip antenna, that is, the elevation of the microstrip antenna substrate and the width of the patch microstrip antenna have been improved in this research. The surface conductivity of graphene may be modified to function at specific frequencies. In order to prepare for future wireless communication technologies, a microstrip patch antenna operating at 93 GHz resonant frequency is constructed and investigated. The goal of this study was to reduce VSWR and increase gain. The simulation yielded results for the gain and VSWR, which were 8.26 dBi and 1.01, respectively.

Keywords: graphene, microstrip patch antenna, substrate material, wireless communication, nanocomposite material

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Authors: Omogoriola Hannah Omoloye

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Fish is a key ingredient on the global menu, a vital factor in the global environment and an important basis for livelihood worldwide1. The length – weight relationships (LWRs) is of great importance in fishery assessment2,3. Its importance is pronounced in estimated the average weight at a given length group4 and in assessing the relative well being of a fish population5. Length and weight measurement in conjunction with age data can give information on the stock composition, age at maturity, life span, mortality, growth and production4,5,6,7. In addition, the data on length and weight can also provides important clues to climatic and environmental changes and the change in human consumption practices8,9. However, the size attained by the individual fish may also vary because of variation in food supply, and these in turn may reflect variation in climatic parameters and in the supply of nutrient or in the degree of competition for food. Environment deterioration, for example, may reduce growth rates and will cause a decrease in the average age of the fish. The condition factor and the relative condition factor10 are the quantitative parameters of the well being state of the fish and reflect recent feeding condition of the fish. It is based on the hypothesis that heavier fish of a given length are in better condition11. This factor varies according to influences of physiological factors, fluctuating according to different stages of the development. Condition factor has been used as an index of growth and feeding intensity12. Condition factor decrease with increase in length 12,13 and also influences the reproductive cycle in fish14. The objective here is to determine the length-weight relationships and condition factor for direct use in fishery assessment and for future comparisons between populations of the same species at different locations. To provide quantitative information on the biology of marine fish species trawl from Nigeria coastal water.

Keywords: condition factor, growth pattern, marine fish species, Nigerian Coastal water

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Authors: Ninlawat Phuangchoke, Waraporn Viyanon, Setta Sasananan

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The most important process of the water treatment plant process is the coagulation using alum and poly aluminum chloride (PACL), and the value of usage per day is a hundred thousand baht. Therefore, determining the dosage of alum and PACL are the most important factors to be prescribed. Water production is economical and valuable. This research applies an artificial neural network (ANN), which uses the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm to create a mathematical model (Soft Jar Test) for prediction chemical dose used to coagulation such as alum and PACL, which input data consists of turbidity, pH, alkalinity, conductivity, and, oxygen consumption (OC) of Bangkhen water treatment plant (BKWTP) Metropolitan Waterworks Authority. The data collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 cover changing seasons of Thailand. The input data of ANN is divided into three groups training set, test set, and validation set, which the best model performance with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of alum are 0.73, 3.18, and PACL is 0.59, 3.21 respectively.

Keywords: soft jar test, jar test, water treatment plant process, artificial neural network

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Wajid Ali Khan

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Extensive experimentation and numerical investigation are performed to predict the machining-induced residual stresses in the end milling of AISI 1045 steel, and an optimization code has been developed using the particle swarm optimization technique. Experiments were conducted using a single factor at a time and design of experiments approach. Regression analysis was done, and a mathematical model of the cutting process was developed, thus predicting the machining-induced residual stress with reasonable accuracy. The mathematical model served as the objective function to be optimized using particle swarm optimization. The relationship between the different cutting parameters and the output variables, force, and residual stresses has been studied. The combined effect of the process parameters, speed, feed, and depth of cut was examined, and it is understood that 85% of the variation of these variables can be attributed to these machining parameters under research. A 3D finite element model is developed to predict the cutting forces and the machining-induced residual stresses in end milling operation. The results were validated experimentally and against the Johnson-cook model available in the literature.

Keywords: residual stresses, end milling, 1045 steel, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Jaspreet Singh, Gurvinder Singh, Prabhsimran Singh, Rajinder Singh, Prithvipal Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon, Ravinder Singh Sawhney

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Morphological evaluation of Indian languages is one of the burgeoning fields in the area of Natural Language Processing (NLP). The evaluation of a language is an eminent task in the era of information retrieval and text mining. The extraction and classification of knowledge from text can be exploited for sentiment analysis and morphological evaluation. This study coalesce morphological evaluation and sentiment analysis for the task of classification of farmer suicide cases reported in Punjab state of India. The pre-processing of Punjabi text involves morphological evaluation and normalization of Punjabi word tokens followed by the training of proposed model using deep learning classification on Punjabi language text extracted from online Punjabi news reports. The class-wise accuracies of sentiment prediction for four negatively oriented classes of farmer suicide cases are 93.85%, 88.53%, 83.3%, and 95.45% respectively. The overall accuracy of sentiment classification obtained using proposed framework on 275 Punjabi text documents is found to be 90.29%.

Keywords: deep neural network, farmer suicides, morphological processing, punjabi text, sentiment analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Aditya Patil, Arun Patil, Vaishali Patil, Sudhir Chitnis, Anjum Patel

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Rapid growth has given e-commerce platforms a lot of client behavior and spending data. To maximize their strategy, businesses must understand how customers utilize online shopping platforms and what influences their purchases. Our research focuses on e-commerce user behavior and purchasing trends. This extensive study examines spending and user behavior. Regression and grouping disclose relevant data from the dataset. We can understand user spending trends via multilevel regression. We can analyze how pricing, user demographics, and product categories affect customer purchase decisions with this technique. Clustering groups consumers by spending. Important information was found. Purchase habits vary by user group. Our analysis illuminates the complex world of e-commerce consumer behavior and purchase trends. Understanding user behavior helps create effective e-commerce marketing strategies. This market can benefit from K-means clustering. This study focuses on tailoring strategies to user groups and improving product and price effectiveness. Customer buying behaviors across categories were shown via K-means clusters. Average spending is highest in Cluster 4 and lowest in Cluster 3. Clothing is less popular than gadgets and appliances around the holidays. Cluster spending distribution is examined using average variables. Our research enhances e-commerce analytics. Companies can improve customer service and decision-making with this data.

Keywords: e-commerce, regression, clustering, k-means

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Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Ahamd Fahimifar, Sajjad V. Maghvan

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Promotion of the Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC) as a construction material for civil engineering projects has invoked numerous researchers to investigate their mechanical behavior. Even though there is satisfactory information about the effects of fiber type and length, concrete mixture, casting type and other variables on the strength and deformability parameters of FRC, the numerical modeling of such materials still needs research attention. The focus of this study is to investigate the feasibility of Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) model in prediction of Macro-synthetic FRC structures behavior. CDP model requires the tensile behavior of concrete to be well characterized. For this purpose, a series of uniaxial direct tension and four point bending tests were conducted on the notched specimens to define bilinear tension softening (post-peak tension stress-strain) behavior. With these parameters obtained, the flexural behavior of macro-synthetic FRC beams were modeled and the results showed a good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Keywords: concrete damaged plasticity, fiber reinforced concrete, finite element modeling, macro-synthetic fibers, uniaxial tensile test

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Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

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Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

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Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Sajjad Negahban, Ruihe Wang, Baojiang Sun

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Gas-lift dual gradient drilling is a solution for deepwater drilling challenges. As well, Continuous development of drilling technology leads to increase employment of mineral oil based drilling fluids and synthetic-based drilling fluids, which have adequate characteristics such as: high rate of penetration, lubricity, shale inhibition and low toxicity. The paper discusses utilization of nitrified mineral oil base drilling for deepwater drilling and for more accurate prediction of pressure in DGD at marine riser, solubility and bubble pressure were considered in steady state hydraulic model. The Standing bubble pressure and solubility correlations, and two models which were acquired from experimental determination were applied in hydraulic model. The effect of the black oil correlations, and new solubility and bubble pressure models was evaluated on the PVT parameters such as oil formation volume factor, density, viscosity, volumetric flow rate. Eventually, the consequent simulated pressure profile due to these models was presented.

Keywords: solubility, bubble pressure, gas-lift dual gradient drilling, steady state hydraulic model

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Authors: Gajaanuja Megalathan, Banuka Athuraliya

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Crime is one of our society's most intimidating and threatening challenges. With the majority of the population residing in cities, many experts and data provided by local authorities suggest a rapid increase in the number of crimes committed in these cities in recent years. There has been an increasing graph in the crime rates. People living in Sri Lanka have the right to know the exact crime rates and the crime rates in the future of the place they are living in. Due to the current economic crisis, crime rates have spiked. There have been so many thefts and murders recorded within the last 6-10 months. Although there are many sources to find out, there is no solid way of searching and finding out the safety of the place. Due to all these reasons, there is a need for the public to feel safe when they are introduced to new places. Through this research, the author aims to develop a mobile application that will be a solution to this problem. It is mainly targeted at tourists, and people who recently relocated will gain advantage of this application. Moreover, the Arima Model combined with ANN is to be used to predict crime rates. From the past researchers' works, it is evidently clear that they haven’t used the Arima model combined with Artificial Neural Networks to forecast crimes.

Keywords: arima model, ANN, crime prediction, data analysis

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Yunmi Park, Mahn-Jo Kim

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The purpose of this research is to find out the effect of raising poultry in environment-friendly producing area to fruit quality and crop within chestnut tree yield. This study was conducted on chestnut tree cultivation sites raising poultry at intervals of five to ten days for three years in the mountainous area which was located in the middle corner of Chungcheongbuk-do province, Korea. The quality of chestnut fruit and the control effects of harmful insects have been investigated between the sites raising poultry and control sites for three years. As a result, the harvest yielded were two to five kilograms higher in the chestnut tree cultivation sites raising poultry compared with the control site without poultry. Also, for the purposes of determining the price when selling, the ratio of the biggest fruit is higher by 3% to 14% in the chestnut tree cultivation sites raising poultry. In order to investigate the effects of pest control through raising poultry, the ratio of harmful insect species to treatment sites was relatively low compared to control site. The appreciable result is that the control effect of larvae of the chestnut leaf-cut weevil was higher in the position where raising the poultry of 4 to 5 weeks compared to the position where raising the poultry of 12 weeks. This study found that the spread of poultry in the cultivation of chestnut trees increased the fruit quality by improving the size of fruits and lowering the dosage of harmful insect, chestnut leaf-cut weevil. Also, the eco-friendly chicken produced by these mountainous regions is expected to contribute to enhancing the incomes of the farmers by differentiating themselves from existing products.

Keywords: chestnut tree, environment-friendly, fruit quality, raising poultry

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Authors: Gyo Woo Lee, Man Young Kim

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A mathematical heat transfer model for the prediction of transient heating of the slab in a direct-fired walking beam type reheating furnace has been developed by considering the nongray thermal radiation with given furnace environments. The furnace is modeled as radiating nongray medium with carbon dioxide and water with five-zoned gas temperature and the furnace wall is considered as a constant temperature lower than furnace gas one. The slabs are moving with constant velocity depending on the residence time through the non-firing, charging, preheating, heating, and final soaking zones. Radiative heat flux obtained by considering the radiative heat exchange inside the furnace as well as convective one from the surrounding hot gases are introduced as boundary condition of the transient heat conduction within the slab. After validating thermal radiation model adopted in this work, thermal fields in both model and real reheating furnace are investigated in terms of radiative heat flux in the furnace and temperature inside the slab. The results show that the slab in the furnace can be more heated with higher slab emissivity and residence time.

Keywords: reheating furnace, steel slab, radiative heat transfer, WSGGM, emissivity, residence time

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Samia Rabet, Rachida Chemini, Gerhard Schäfer, Farid Aiouache

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The textile industry generates large quantities of wastewater, which poses significant environmental problems due to its complex composition and high levels of pollutants loaded principally with heavy metals, large amounts of COD, and dye. Separation treatment methods are often known for their effectiveness in removing contaminants whereas membrane separation techniques are a promising process for the treatment of textile effluent due to their versatility, efficiency, and low energy requirements. This study focuses on the modeling and simulation of membrane separation technologies with a cross-flow filtration process for textile effluent treatment. It aims to explore the application of mathematical models and computational simulations using ASPEN Plus Software in the prediction of a complex and real effluent separation. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of modeling and simulation techniques in predicting pollutant removal efficiencies with a global deviation percentage of 1.83% between experimental and simulated results; membrane fouling behavior, and overall process performance (hydraulic resistance, membrane porosity) were also estimated and indicating that the membrane losses 10% of its efficiency after 40 min of working.

Keywords: membrane separation, ultrafiltration, textile effluent, modeling, simulation

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Authors: Beilei Xu, Wencheng Wu, Lei Lin, Rachel Melnyk, Ahmed Ghazi

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In operating rooms, excessive cognitive stress can impede the performance of a surgeon, while low engagement can lead to unavoidable mistakes due to complacency. As a consequence, there is a strong desire in the surgical community to be able to monitor and quantify the cognitive stress of a surgeon while performing surgical procedures. Quantitative cognitiveload-based feedback can also provide valuable insights during surgical training to optimize training efficiency and effectiveness. Various physiological measures have been evaluated for quantifying cognitive stress for different mental challenges. In this paper, we present a study using the cognitive stress measured by the task evoked pupillary response extracted from the time series eye-tracking measurements to predict task difficulties in a virtual reality based robotic surgery training environment. In particular, we proposed a differential-task-difficulty scale, utilized a comprehensive feature extraction approach, and implemented a multitask learning framework and compared the regression accuracy between the conventional single-task-based and three multitask approaches across subjects.

Keywords: surgical metric, task evoked pupillary response, multitask learning, TSFresh

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Tienfuan Kerh, Hsienchang Lu, Rob Saunders

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Shoreline erosion problems caused by global warming and sea level rising may result in losing of land areas, so it should be examined regularly to reduce possible negative impacts. Initially in this study, three sets of survey images obtained from the years of 1990, 2001, and 2010, respectively, are digitalized by using graphical software to establish the spatial coordinates of six major beaches around the island of Taiwan. Then, by overlaying the known multi-period images, the change of shoreline can be observed from their distribution of coordinates. In addition, the neural network approximation is used to develop a model for predicting shoreline variation in the years of 2015 and 2020. The comparison results show that there is no significant change of total sandy area for all beaches in the three different periods. However, the prediction results show that two beaches may exhibit an increasing of total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method adopted in this study may be applicable to other shorelines of interest around the world.

Keywords: digitalized shoreline coordinates, survey image overlaying, neural network approximation, total beach sandy areas

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Authors: Khaled M.Naguib, Ahmed M.Noureldin

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This paper aims to achieve many goals such as knowing (quantities produced- main properties- characteristics) of sludge produced from Bahr EL-Baqar drains treatment plant. This prediction or projection was made by laboratory analysis and modelling of Model samples from sludge depending on many studies that have previously done, second check the feasibility and do a risk analysis to know the best alternatives for reuse in producing secondary products that add value to sludge. Also, to know alternatives that have no value to add. All recovery methods are relatively very expensive and challenging to be done in this mega plant, so the recommendation from this study is to use the sludge as a coagulant to reduce some compounds or in secondary products. The study utilized sludge-cement replacement percentages of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50%. Produced tiles were tested for water absorption and breaking (bending) strength. The study showed that all produced tiles exhibited a water absorption ratio of around 10%. The study concluded that produced tiles, except for 50% sludge-cement replacement, comply with the breaking strength requirements of 2.8 MPa for tiles for external use.

Keywords: cement, tiles, water treatment sludge, breaking strength, absorption, heavy metals, risk analysis

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Authors: Tharsinithevy Kirupananthan

Abstract:

This study analyzed the decision on growing three different crops which suit dry zone of Sri Lanka using the opportunity cost concept in economics. The variable cost of production of sugar cane, sweet orange, and soybean was 112,418.76, 13,463 and 10,928.08 Sri Lankan Rs. (LKR) per acre in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The yield of the sugar cane, sweet orange, and soybean were 49.33 tons, 25,595 fruits, and 1032 kg per acre. The market price of the sugar cane, sweet orange, and soybean were 4200 LKR/ton, LKR 14.66 per fruit and LKR 89.69 per kg. The market value or the total income of the sugar cane, sweet orange, and soybean were LKR 207194.4, 283090.74, and 92560.08. The accounting profit of the sugar cane, sweet orange, and soybean was 94,775.64, 269,627.74, and 81,632 LKR per acre. Therefore, the opportunity cost of sugarcane per acre in terms of accounting profit was LKR. 269,627.74 from sweet orange and LKR 81,632 from soybean. The highest opportunity cost per acre in terms of accounting profit was found when soybean is produced instead of sweet orange. The opportunity cost which compared among the crops in terms of market value for sugar cane per acre was LKR 283090.74 of sweet orange and LKR 92560.08 of soybean. The highest opportunity cost both in terms of accounting profit and market value was found when growing soybean instead of sweet orange by using the resource per acre of land. The economic profit of sugar cane production in place of sweet orange was LKR -188315.1 per acre. The highest economic profit LKR 177067.66 was found when sweet orange is produced in place of soybean. A positive value of economic profit was found in all combination of sweet orange production without considering the first harvest duration of the crop.

Keywords: agricultural economics, crop, opportunity cost, Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.

Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 444