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Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×10⁵ and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Carla Palencia-Aguilar

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Calculations of Net Carbon Balance can be obtained by means of Net Biome Productivity (NBP), Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), and Net Primary Production (NPP). The latter is an important component of the biosphere carbon cycle and is easily obtained data from MODIS MOD17A3HGF; however, the results are only available yearly. To overcome data availability, bands 33 to 36 from MODIS MYD021KM (obtained on a daily basis) were analyzed and compared with NPP data from the years 2000 to 2021 in 7 sites where surface mining takes place in the Colombian territory. Coal, Gold, Iron, and Limestone were the minerals of interest. Scales and Units as well as thermal anomalies, were considered for net carbon balance per location. The NPP time series from the satellite images were filtered by using two Matlab filters: First order and Discrete Transfer. After filtering the NPP time series, comparing the graph results from the satellite’s image value, and running a linear regression, the results showed R2 from 0,72 to 0,85. To establish comparable units among NPP and bands 33 to 36, the Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator by EPA was used. The comparison was established in two ways: one by the sum of all the data per point per year and the other by the average of 46 weeks and finding the percentage that the value represented with respect to NPP. The former underestimated the total CO2 emissions. The results also showed that coal and gold mining in the last 22 years had less CO2 emissions than limestone, with an average per year of 143 kton CO2 eq for gold, 152 kton CO2 eq for coal, and 287 kton CO2 eq for iron. Limestone emissions varied from 206 to 441 kton CO2 eq. The maximum emission values from unfiltered data correspond to 165 kton CO2 eq. for gold, 188 kton CO2 eq. for coal, and 310 kton CO2 eq. for iron and limestone, varying from 231 to 490 kton CO2 eq. If the most pollutant limestone site improves its production technology, limestone could count with a maximum of 318 kton CO2 eq emissions per year, a value very similar respect to iron. The importance of gathering data is to establish benchmarks in order to attain 2050’s zero emissions goal.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, NPP, MODIS, MINING

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Authors: Rolland Epafras Fanggidae

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The impact of climate change such as natural disasters, crop failures, increasing crop pests, bad gisi on children and other impacts, will indirectly affect education, health, food safety, as well as the economy. The impact of climate change has put a man in a situation of vulnerability, which was powerless to meet the minimum requirements, it is in close contact with poverty. When talking about poverty, the most plausible is female. The role of women in Indonesia, particularly in East Nusa Tenggara in Domestic aktifity very central and dominant. This makes Indonesian woman can say "outstanding actor in the face of climate change mitigation and adaptation and applying local knowledge", but still ignored when women based on gender division of work entrusted role in domestic activities. Similarly, in public activity is an extension of the Domestic example, trading activity in the market lele / mama. Although men are also affected by climate change, but most feel is female. From the above problems, it can be said that Indonesia's commitment has not been followed by optimal empowerment of women's role in addressing climate change, it is necessary to learn to know how the role of women in the face of climate change impacts that hit on her role as a woman, a housewife or head of the family and will be input in order to determine how women find a solution to tackle the problem of climate change. This study focuses on the efforts made by women cope with the impacts of climate change, efforts by the government, empowerment model used in Playing the impact of climate change. The container with the formulation of the title "The Role of Women in Climate Change Impact in Kupang district". Where the assessment in use types Research mix Methods combination of quantitative research and qualitative research. While the location of the research conducted in Kupang regency, East Nusa Tenggara, namely: District of East Kupang is a district granary in Kupang district. Subdistrict West Kupang, especially Tablolong Village is the center of seaweed cultivation in Kupang district.

Keywords: climate change, women, women's roles, gender, family

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Authors: Ray Bryant

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3Strands Global Foundation (3SGF), a non-profit with a mission to mobilize communities to combat human trafficking through prevention education and reintegration programs, launched a groundbreaking study that calls out the usage and benefits of artificial intelligence in the war against human trafficking. Having gathered more than 30,000 stories from counselors and school staff who have gone through its PROTECT Prevention Education program, 3SGF sought to develop a methodology to measure the effectiveness of the training, which helps educators and school staff identify physical signs and behaviors indicating a student is being victimized. The program further illustrates how to recognize and respond to trauma and teaches the steps to take to report human trafficking, as well as how to connect victims with the proper professionals. 3SGF partnered with Levity, a leader in no-code Artificial Intelligence (AI) automation, to create the research study utilizing natural language processing, a branch of artificial intelligence, to measure the effectiveness of their prevention education program. By applying the logic created for the study, the platform analyzed and categorized each story. If the story, directly from the educator, demonstrated one or more of the desired outcomes; Increased Awareness, Increased Knowledge, or Intended Behavior Change, a label was applied. The system then added a confidence level for each identified label. The study results were generated with a 99% confidence level. Preliminary results show that of the 30,000 stories gathered, it became overwhelmingly clear that a significant majority of the participants now have increased awareness of the issue, demonstrated better knowledge of how to help prevent the crime, and expressed an intention to change how they approach what they do daily. In addition, it was observed that approximately 30% of the stories involved comments by educators expressing they wish they’d had this knowledge sooner as they can think of many students they would have been able to help. Objectives Of Research: To solve the problem of needing to analyze and accurately categorize more than 30,000 data points of participant feedback in order to evaluate the success of a human trafficking prevention program by using AI and Natural Language Processing. Methodologies Used: In conjunction with our strategic partner, Levity, we have created our own NLP analysis engine specific to our problem. Contributions To Research: The intersection of AI and human rights and how to utilize technology to combat human trafficking.

Keywords: AI, technology, human trafficking, prevention

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Authors: Jiping Cai, Ningzhi Wangyang, Jun Shao

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Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality that leads to structural and functional damage in several parts of the brain, such as cranial nerves, optic nerve tract or other circuitry involved in vision and occipital lobe, depending on its location and severity. As a result, the function associated with vision processing and perception are significantly affected and cause blurred vision, double vision, decreased peripheral vision and blindness. Here two cases complaining of monocular vision loss (actually temporal hemianopia) due to traumatic chiasmal syndrome after frontal head injury were reported, and were compared the findings with individual case reports published in the literature. Reported cases of traumatic chiasmal syndrome appear to share some common features, such as injury to the frontal bone and fracture of the anterior skull base. The degree of bitemporal hemianopia and visual loss acuity have a variable presentation and was not necessarily related to the severity of the craniocerebral trauma. Chiasmal injury may occur even in the absence bony chip impingement. Isolated bitemporal hemianopia is rare and clinical improvement usually may not occur. Mechanisms of damage to the optic chiasm after trauma include direct tearing, contusion haemorrhage and contusion necrosis, and secondary mechanisms such as cell death, inflammation, edema, neurogenesis impairment and axonal damage associated with TBI. Beside visual field test, MRI evaluation of optic pathways seems to the strong objective evidence to demonstrate the impairment of the integrity of visual systems following TBI. Therefore, traumatic chiasmal syndrome should be considered as a differential diagnosis by both neurosurgeons and ophthalmologists in patients presenting with visual impairment, especially bitemporal hemianopia after head injury causing frontal and anterior skull base fracture.

Keywords: bitemporal hemianopia, brain injury, optic chiasma, traumatic chiasmal syndrome.

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Authors: Rehan Mohammad

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Background: Improved Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) practices in schools ensure children’s health, well-being and cognitive performance. In India under various WASH interventions in schools, teachers, and other staff make every possible effort to educate children about personal hygiene, sanitation practices and harms of open defecation. However, once children get back to their families, they see other practicing inappropriate WASH behaviors, and they consequently start following them. This show disconnect between school behavior and family behavior, which needs to be bridged to achieve desired WASH outcomes. Aims and Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the factors causing disconnect of WASH-related behaviors between school and the family of children. It also suggests behavior change interventions to bridge the gap. Methodology: The present study has chosen a mixed- method approach. Both quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection have been used in the present study. The purposive sampling for data collection has been chosen. The data have been collected from 20% children in each age group of 04-08 years and 09-12 years spread over three primary schools and 20% of households to which they belong to which is spread over three slum communities in south district of Delhi. Results: The present study shows that despite of several behavior change interventions at school level, children still practice inappropriate WASH behaviors due to disconnect between school and family behaviors. These behaviors show variation from one age group to another. The inappropriate WASH behaviors being practiced by children include open defecation, wrong disposal of garbage, not keeping personal hygiene, not practicing hand washing practices during critical junctures and not washing fruits and vegetables before eating. The present study has highlighted that 80% of children in the age group of 04-08 years still practice inappropriate WASH behaviors when they go back to their families after school whereas, this percentage has reduced to 40% in case of children in the age group 09-12 years. Present study uncovers association between school and family teaching which creates a huge gap between WASH-related behavioral practices. The study has established that children learn and de-learn the WASH behaviors due to the evident disconnect between behavior change interventions at schools and household level. The study has also made it clear that children understand the significance of appropriate WASH practices but owing to the disconnect the behaviors remain unsettled. The study proposes several behavior change interventions to sync the behaviors of children at school and family level to ensure children’s health, well-being and cognitive performance.

Keywords: behavioral interventions, child health, family behavior, school behavior, WASH

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Authors: Mounir Azzam, Valerie Graw, Andreas Rienow

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The Syrian war, which commenced in 2011, has resulted in significant changes in the real estate market in the Damascus metropolitan area, with rising levels of insecurity and disputes over tenure rights. The quest for spatial justice is, therefore, imperative, and this study performs a spatiotemporal analysis to investigate the impact of the war on real estate differentiation. Using the hedonic price models including 2,411 housing transactions over the period 2010-2022, this study aims to understand the spatial dynamics of the real estate market in wartime. Our findings indicate that war variables have had a significant impact on the differentiation and depreciation of property prices. Notably, property attributes have a more substantial impact on real estate values than district location, with severely damaged buildings in Damascus city resulting in an 89% decline in prices, while prices in Rural Damascus districts have decreased by 50%. Additionally, this study examines the urban texture of Damascus using correlation and homogeneity statistics derived from the gray-level co-occurrence matrix obtained from Google Earth Engine. We monitored 250 samples from hedonic datasets within three different years of the Syrian war (2015, 2019, and 2022). Our findings show that correlation values were highly differentiated, particularly among Rural Damascus districts, with a total decline of 87.2%. While homogeneity values decreased overall between 2015 and 2019, they improved slightly after 2019. The findings have valuable implications, not only for investment prospects in setting up a successful reconstruction strategy but also for spatial justice of property rights in strongly encouraging sustainable real estate development.

Keywords: hedonic price, real estate differentiation, reconstruction strategy, spatial justice, urban texture analysis

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Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

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Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Selina Lin, Justin M Fan, Vincent Zhang, Cindy Chen, Daniel Lam, Jason Yan, Ning Zhang

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Depression is one of the most common mental disorders in the United States, and past studies have shown a concerning increase in the rates of depression in youth populations over time. Furthermore, depression is an especially important issue for Asian Americans because of the anti-Asian violence taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic. While Asian American adolescents are reluctant to seek help for mental health issues, past research has found a prevalence of depressive symptoms in them that have yet to be fully investigated. There have been studies conducted to understand and observe the impacts of multifarious factors influencing the mental well-being of Asian American adolescents; however, they have been generally limited to qualitative investigation, and very few have attempted to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between depression levels and a comprehensive list of factors for those levels at the same time. To better quantify these relationships, this project investigated the prevalence of depression in Asian American teenagers mainly from the Greater Philadelphia Region, aged 12 to 19, and, with an anonymous survey, asked participants 48 multiple-choice questions pertaining to demographic information, daily behaviors, school life, family life, depression levels (quantified by the PHQ-9 assessment), school and family support against depression. Each multiple-choice question was assigned as a factor and variable for statistical and dominance analysis to determine the most influential factors on depression levels of Asian American adolescents. The results were validated via Bootstrap analysis and t-tests. While certain influential factors identified in this survey are consistent with the literature, such as parent-child relationship and peer pressure, several dominant factors were relatively overlooked in the past. These factors include the parents’ relationship with each other, the satisfaction with body image, sex identity, support from the family and support from the school. More than 25% of participants desired more support from their families and schools in handling depression issues. This study implied that it is beneficial for Asian American parents and adolescents to take programs on parents’ relationships with each other, parent-child communication, mental health, and sexual identity. A culturally inclusive school environment and more accessible mental health services would be helpful for Asian American adolescents to combat depression. This survey-based study paved the way for further investigation of effective approaches for helping Asian American adolescents against depression.

Keywords: Asian American adolescents, depression, dominance analysis, t-test, bootstrap analysis

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Authors: Christine Winberg, James Garraway

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Many key university documents, such as vision and mission statements and strategic plans, are aspirational and future-oriented. There is a wide range of future-oriented methods that are used in planning applications, ranging from mathematical modelling to expert opinions. Many of these methods have limitations, and planners using these tools might, for example, make the technical-rational assumption that their plans will unfold in a logical and inevitable fashion, thus underestimating the many complex forces that are at play in planning for an unknown future. This is the issue that this study addresses. The overall project aim was to assist a new university of technology in developing appropriate responses to its social responsibility, graduate employability and research missions in its strategic plan. The specific research question guiding the research activities and approach was: how might the use of innovative future-oriented planning tools enable or constrain a strategic planning process? The research objective was to engage collaborating groups in the use of an innovative tool to develop and assess future scenarios, for the purpose of developing deeper understandings of possible futures and their challenges. The scenario planning tool chosen was ‘fictive scripting’, an analytical technique derived from Technology Forecasting and Innovation Studies. Fictive scripts are future projections that also take into account the present shape of the world and current developments. The process thus began with a critical diagnosis of the present, highlighting its tensions and frictions. The collaborative groups then developed fictive scripts, each group producing a future scenario that foregrounded different institutional missions, their implications and possible consequences. The scripts were analyzed with a view to identifying their potential contribution to the university’s strategic planning exercise. The unfolding fictive scripts revealed a number of insights in terms of unexpected benefits, unexpected challenges, and unexpected consequences. These insights were not evident in previous strategic planning exercises. The contribution that this study offers is to show how better choices can be made and potential pitfalls avoided through a systematic foresight exercise. When universities develop strategic planning documents, they are looking into the future. In this paper it is argued that the use of appropriate tools for future-oriented exercises, can help planners to understand more fully what achieving desired outcomes might entail, what challenges might be encountered, and what unexpected consequences might ensue.

Keywords: fictive scripts, scenarios, strategic planning, technological forecasting

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Authors: Paula Lopez-Arce, Hector Altamirano, Dimitrios Rovas, James Berry, Bryan Hindle, Steven Hodgson

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Efficient mould remediation and accurate moisture diagnostics leading to condensation and mould growth in dwellings are largely untapped. Number of factors are contributing to the rising trend of excessive moisture in homes mainly linked with modern living, increased levels of occupation and rising fuel costs, as well as making homes more energy efficient. Environmental monitoring by means of data collection though loggers sensors and survey forms has been performed in a range of buildings from different UK regions. Air and surface temperature and relative humidity values of residential areas affected by condensation and/or mould issues were recorded. Additional measurements were taken through different trials changing type, location, and position of loggers. In some instances, IR thermal images and ventilation rates have also been acquired. Results have been interpreted together with environmental key parameters by processing and connecting data from loggers and survey questionnaires, both in buildings with and without moisture issues. Monitoring exercises carried out during Winter and Spring time show the importance of developing and following accurate protocols for guidance to obtain consistent, repeatable and comparable results and to improve the performance of environmental monitoring. A model and a protocol are being developed to build a diagnostic tool with the goal of performing a simple but precise residential atmospheric moisture diagnostics to distinguish the cause entailing condensation and mould generation, i.e., ventilation, insulation or heating systems issue. This research shows the relevance of monitoring and processing environmental data to assign moisture risk levels and determine the origin of condensation or mould when dealing with a building atmospheric moisture excess.

Keywords: environmental monitoring, atmospheric moisture, protocols, mould

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Authors: Sibongile Masemola

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In 2018, South Africa decriminalised recreational cannabis use and private cultivation, since then, cannabis businesses have been established to meet the demand. However, marketing activities remain limited in this industry, and businesses are unable to disseminate promotional messages, however, as a solution, firms can promote their brands and positioning instead of the actual product (Bick, 2015). Branding is essential to create differences among cannabis firms and to attract and keep customers (Abrahamsson, 2014). Building cannabis firms into brands can better position them in the mind of the consumer so that they become and remain competitive. The aim of this study was to explore how South African cannabis retailers can build brand equity in a stigmatised market, despite significant restrictions on marketing efforts. Keller’s (2001) customer-based brand equity (CBBE) model was used as the as the theoretical framework and explored how cannabis firms build their businesses into brands through developing their brand identity, meaning, performance, and relationships, and ultimately creating brand equity. The study employed a qualitative research method, using semi-structured in-depth interviews among 17 participants to gain insights from cannabis owners and marketers in the recreational cannabis environment. Most findings were presented according to the blocks of CBBE model. Furthermore, a conceptual framework named the stigma-based brand equity (SBBE) model was adapted from Keller’s CBBE model to include an additional building block that accounts for industry-specific characteristics unique to stigmatised markets. Findings revealed the pervasiveness of education and its significance to brand building in a stigmatised industry. Results also demonstrated the overall effect stigma has on businesses and their consumers due to the longstanding negative evaluations of cannabis. Hence, through stigma-bonding, brands can develop deep identity-related psychological bonds with their consumers that will potentially lead to strong brand resonance. This study aims to contribute business-relevant knowledge for firms operating in core-stigmatised markets under controlled marketing regulations by exploring how cannabis firms can build brand equity. Practically, this study presents recommendations for retailers in stigmatised markets on how to destigmatise, build brand identity, create brand meaning, elicit desired brand responses, and develop brand relationships – ultimately building brand equity.

Keywords: branding, brand equity, cannabis, organisational stigma

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Authors: K. Rajarajeswaran, Krishna Prasad

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Introduction: Refractory shock is a typical consequence of sepsis that does not improve with standard vasopressor therapy. A possible adjuvant therapeutic option for treating refractory shock in sepsis is methylene blue. This study looked at the effects of intravenous methylene blue plus norepinephrine given as a single bolus infusion on mortality and hemodynamic improvement in patients suffering from refractory shock. Methodology: This six-month observational prospective study was carried out at an intensive care unit, teaching hospital, and medical college. It involved 112 patients who had been diagnosed with refractory septic shock and needed vasopressor medication. Group B received injection norepinephrine 0.01 µg/kg/min infusion alone, while Group A received injection methylene blue 2 mg/kg iv single bolus (fixed dose) in addition to injection norepinephrine 0.01 µg/kg/min infusion. Both groups' noradrenaline doses were titrated to reach the desired MAP of 60–75 mm Hg. The amount of norepinephrine needed to sustain a MAP of more than 60 mm Hg was the data gathered. Serum lactate, procalcitonin level, C-reactive protein, length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and duration of mechanical ventilation, incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), and mortality were compared. Results: A total of 112 patients with refractory shock were included in the study. With the use of IV methylene blue, 36 (59.3%) patients showed significant improvement in MAP within 2 hours (77.12 ± 8.90 vs 74.28 ± 21.84, p = 0.005). Responders were 4.009 times more likely to have vasopressor-free time within 24 hours (19.5% vs 6.1%, p = 0.022, odds ratio 5.017, 95% confidence interval, 1.110–14.283). The serum lactate was lower, and urine output was higher in group I than in group II (p <0.05). Group I had a significantly greater reduction in SOFA score in 12 hours than group II. However, there was no significant difference in terms of mortality, length of ICU stay, ventilator free days, and incidence of AKI. In the responder group, there was a significant increase in the MAP and decrease in vasopressor requirement pre- and post-infusion of methylene blue (p < 0.05). Responder had shorter vasopressor-free days as compared with non-responder (5.44 vs 6.99, p = 0.007). Conclusion: When administered as adjuvant therapy, a single-dose bolus infusion of Methylene Blue plus Norepinephrine may aid in meeting early resuscitation goals for the management of patients with septic shock. But the patients' death rate, ICU stay duration, ventilator-free days, or incidence of AKI were unchanged.

Keywords: norepinephrine, methylene blue, shock, vasopressor

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Authors: Ziwei Guo, Liangping Hong, Zhiguo Ye

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The exogenous modernization process in China and other late-coming countries, is not resulted from a gradual growth of their own modernity features, but a conscious response to external challenges. Under this context, it had been equally important for Chinese cities to make themselves ‘Chinese’ as well as ‘modern’. Wuhan was the first opened inland treaty port in late Qing Dynasty. In the following one hundred years, Wuhan transferred from a feudal town to a modern industrial city. It is a good example to illustrate the urban construction and cultural heritage through the process and impact of social transformation. An overall perspective on transformation will contribute to develop the city`s uniqueness and enhance its inclusive development. The study chooses the history of Wuhan from 1861 to 1957 as the study period. The whole transformation process will be divided into four typical periods based on key historical events, and the paper analyzes the changes on urban structure and constructions activities in each period. Then, a lot of examples are used to compare the features of Wuhan modern city heritage in the four periods. In this way, three characteristics of Wuhan modern city heritage are summarized. The paper finds that globalization and localization worked together to shape the urban physical space environment. For Wuhan, social transformation has a profound and comprehensive impact on urban construction, which can be analyzed in the aspects of main construction, architecture style, location and actors. Moreover, the three towns of Wuhan have a disparate cityscape that is reflected by the varied heritages and architecture features over different transformation periods. Lastly, the protection regulations and conservation planning of heritage in Wuhan are discussed, and suggestions about the conservation of Wuhan modern heritage are tried to be drawn. The implications of the study are providing a new perspective on modern city heritage for cities like Wuhan, and the future local planning system and heritage conservation policies can take into consideration the ‘Modern Cultural Transformation Route’ in this paper.

Keywords: modern city heritage, transformation, identity, Wuhan

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Authors: Shiv Jyoti Pandey, Shveta Puri, G. M. Bhat, Neha Raina

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The Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) region of Northwest Himalaya has a long history of earthquake activity which falls within Seismic Zones IV and V. To know the crustal structure beneath this region, we utilized teleseismic receiver function method. This paper presents the results of the analyses of the teleseismic earthquake waves recorded by 10 seismic observatories installed in the vicinity of major thrusts and faults. The teleseismic waves at epicentral distance between 30o and 90o with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 5.5 that contains large amount of information about the crust and upper mantle structure directly beneath a receiver has been used. The receiver function (RF) technique has been widely applied to investigate crustal structures using P-to-S converted (Ps) phases from velocity discontinuities. The arrival time of the Ps, PpPs and PpSs+ PsPs converted and reverberated phases from the Moho can be combined to constrain the mean crustal thickness and Vp/Vs ratio. Over 500 receiver functions from 10 broadband stations located in the Jammu & Kashmir region of Northwest Himalaya were analyzed. With the help of H-K stacking method, we determined the crustal thickness (H) and average crustal Vp/Vs ratio (K) in this region. We also used Neighbourhood algorithm technique to verify our results. The receiver function results for these stations show that the crustal thickness under Jammu & Kashmir ranges from 45.0 to 53.6 km with an average value of 50.01 km. The Vp/Vs ratio varies from 1.63 to 1.99 with an average value of 1.784 which corresponds to an average Poisson’s ratio of 0.266 with a range from 0.198 to 0.331. High Poisson’s ratios under some stations may be related to partial melting in the crust near the uppermost mantle. The crustal structure model developed from this study can be used to refine the velocity model used in the precise epicenter location in the region, thereby increasing the knowledge to understand current seismicity in the region.

Keywords: H-K stacking, Poisson’s ratios, receiver function, teleseismic

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Authors: Vladimir Klepikov

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To develop the programs to supply crude oil to North European refineries, it is necessary to take into account the refineries’ location, crude refining capacity, and the transport infrastructure capacity. Among the countries of the region, we include those having a marine boundary along the Northern Sea and the Baltic Sea (from France in the west to Finland in the east). The paper envisages the geographic allocation of the refineries and contains the evaluation of the refineries’ capacities for the region under review. The sustainable operations of refineries in the region are determined by the transportation system capacity to supply crude oil to them. The assessment of capacity of crude oil transportation to the refineries is conducted. The research is performed for the period of 2005/2015, using the quantitative analysis method. The countries are classified by the refineries’ aggregate capacities and the crude oil output on their territory. The crude oil output capacities in the region in the period under review are determined. The capacities of the region’s transportation system to supply crude oil produced in the region to the refineries are revealed. The analysis suggested that imported raw materials are the main source of oil for the refineries in the region. The main sources of crude oil supplies to North European refineries are reviewed. The change in the refineries’ capacities in the group of countries and each particular country, as well as the utilization of the refineries' capacities in the region in the period under review, was studied. The input suggests that the bulk of crude oil is supplied by marine and pipeline transport. The paper contains the assessment of the crude oil transportation by pipeline transport in the overall crude oil cargo flow. The refineries’ production rate for the groups of countries under the review and for each particular country was the subject of study. Our study yielded the trend towards the increase in the crude oil refining at the refineries of the region and reduction in the crude oil output. If this trend persists in the near future, the cargo flow of imported crude oil and the utilization of the North European logistics infrastructure may increase. According to the study, the existing transport infrastructure in the region is able to handle the increasing imported crude oil flow.

Keywords: European region, infrastructure, oil terminal capacity, pipeline capacity, tanker draft

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Authors: Junfeng Yan, Wenkui Hou

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Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a technology to monitor the equipment status and predict impending faults. It is used to predict the potential fault and provide fault information and track trends of system degradation by capturing characteristics signals. So how to detect characteristics signals is very important. The select of test point plays a very important role in detecting characteristics signal. Traditionally, we use dependency model to select the test point containing the most detecting information. But, facing the large complicated system, the dependency model is not built so easily sometimes and the greater trouble is how to calculate the matrix. Rely on this premise, the paper provide a highly effective method to select test point without dependency model. Because signal flow model is a diagnosis model based on failure mode, which focuses on system’s failure mode and the dependency relationship between the test points and faults. In the signal flow model, a fault information can flow from the beginning to the end. According to the signal flow model, we can find out location and structure information of every test point and module. We break the signal flow model up into serial and parallel parts to obtain the final relationship function between the system’s testability or prediction metrics and test points. Further, through the partial derivatives operation, we can obtain every test point’s importance degree in determining the testability metrics, such as undetected rate, false alarm rate, untrusted rate. This contributes to installing the test point according to the real requirement and also provides a solid foundation for the Prognostics and Health Management. According to the real effect of the practical engineering application, the method is very efficient.

Keywords: false alarm rate, importance degree, signal flow model, undetected rate, untrusted rate

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Authors: Madhav Khadilkar

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Construction of a large standby reservoir was required to provide secure water supply. The new reservoir was required to be constructed at the same location of an abandoned old open pond due to space constraints. Some investigations were carried out earlier to improvise and re-commission the existing pond. But due to a lack of quantified risk of settlement from voids in the underlying limestone, the shallow foundations were not found feasible. Since the reservoir was resting on hard strata for about three-quarter of plan area and one quarter was resting on soil underlying with limestone and considerably low subgrade modulus. Further investigations were carried out to ascertain the locations and extent of voids within the limestone. It was concluded that the risk due to lime dissolution was acceptably low, and the site was found geotechnically feasible. The hazard posed by limestone dissolution was addressed through the integrated structural and geotechnical analysis and design approach. Finite Element Analysis was carried out to quantify the stresses and differential settlement due to various probable loads and soil-structure interaction. Walls behaving as cantilever under operational loads were found undergoing in-plane bending and tensile forces due to soil-structure interaction. Sensitivity analysis for varying soil subgrade modulus was carried out to check the variation in the response of the structure and magnitude of stresses developed. The base slab was additionally checked for the loss of soil contact due to lime pocket formations at random locations. The expansion and contraction joints were planned to receive minimal additional forces due to differential settlement. The reservoir was designed to sustain the actions corresponding to allowable deformation limits per code, and geotechnical measures were proposed to achieve the soil parameters set in structural analysis.

Keywords: differential settlement, limestone dissolution, reservoir, soil structure interaction

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Authors: Fanous Mohammadi, Majid H. Tangestani, Mohammad H. Tayebi

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This research aims to evaluate and compare Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based fuzzy models for producing orogenic gold prospectivity maps in the Saqqez area, NW of Iran. Gold occurrences are hosted in sericite schist and mafic to felsic meta-volcanic rocks in this area and are associated with hydrothermal alterations that extend over ductile to brittle shear zones. The predictor maps, which represent the Pre-(Source/Trigger/Pathway), syn-(deposition/physical/chemical traps) and post-mineralization (preservation/distribution of indicator minerals) subsystems for gold mineralization, were generated using empirical understandings of the specifications of known orogenic gold deposits and gold mineral systems and were then pre-processed and integrated to produce mineral prospectivity maps. Five fuzzy logic operators, including AND, OR, Fuzzy Algebraic Product (FAP), Fuzzy Algebraic Sum (FAS), and GAMMA, were applied to the predictor maps in order to find the most efficient prediction model. Prediction-Area (P-A) plots and field observations were used to assess and evaluate the accuracy of prediction models. Mineral prospectivity maps generated by AND, OR, FAP, and FAS operators were inaccurate and, therefore, unable to pinpoint the exact location of discovered gold occurrences. The GAMMA operator, on the other hand, produced acceptable results and identified potentially economic target sites. The P-A plot revealed that 68 percent of known orogenic gold deposits are found in high and very high potential regions. The GAMMA operator was shown to be useful in predicting and defining cost-effective target sites for orogenic gold deposits, as well as optimizing mineral deposit exploitation.

Keywords: mineral prospectivity mapping, fuzzy logic, GIS, orogenic gold deposit, Saqqez, Iran

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Authors: Prarabdh Tiwari, M. Vidya Sagar, K. Bhima Raju, Joy Choudhury, Subash Chandra, E. Nagaiah, Shakeel Ahmed

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Passive seismic, a wavefield interferometric imaging, low cost and rapid tool for subsurface investigation is used for various geotechnical purposes such as hydrocarbon exploration, seismic microzonation, etc. With the recent advancement, its application has also been extended to groundwater exploration by means of finding the bedrock depth. Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR)-National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) has experimented passive seismic studies along with electrical resistivity tomography for groundwater in hard rock (Choutuppal, Hyderabad). Passive Seismic with Electrical Resistivity (ERT) can give more clear 2-D subsurface image for Groundwater Exploration in Hard Rock area. Passive seismic data were collected using a Tromino, a three-component broadband seismometer, to measure background ambient noise and processed using GRILLA software. The passive seismic results are found corroborating with ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography) results. For data acquisition purpose, Tromino was kept over 30 locations consist recording of 20 minutes at each station. These location shows strong resonance frequency peak, suggesting good impedance contrast between different subsurface layers (ex. Mica rich Laminated layer, Weathered layer, granite, etc.) This paper presents signature of passive seismic for hard rock terrain. It has been found that passive seismic has potential application for formation characterization and can be used as an alternative tool for delineating litho-stratification in an urban condition where electrical and electromagnetic tools cannot be applied due to high cultural noise. In addition to its general application in combination with electrical and electromagnetic methods can improve the interpreted subsurface model.

Keywords: passive seismic, resonant frequency, Tromino, GRILLA

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Authors: M. Reza Roshandel, Tannaz Aghaei Badr, Batoul Khoundabi, Sara C. Lewis, Soroush Rais-Bahrami, John Sfakianos, Reza Mehrazin, Ash K. Tewari

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Introduction: Prostate biopsy is the most reliable diagnostic method for choosing the appropriate management of prostate cancer. However, discrepancies between Gleason grade groups (GG) of different biopsies remain a significant concern. This study aims to assess the association of the radiological factors with GG discrepancies in patients with index Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 3 lesions, using radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens as the most accurate and informative pathology. Methods: This single-institutional retrospective study was performed on a total of 2289 consecutive prostate cancer patients with combined targeted and systematic prostate biopsy followed by radical prostatectomy (RP). The database was explored for patients with the index PI-RADS 3 lesions version 2 and 2.1. Cancers with PI-RADS 4 or 5 scoring were excluded from the study. Patient characteristics and radiologic features were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression. Number-density of lesions was defined as the number of lesions per prostatic volume. Results: Of the 151 prostate cancer cases with PI-RADS 3 index lesions, 27% and 17% had upgrades and downgrades at RP, respectively. Analysis of grade changes showed no significant associations between discrepancies and the number or the number density of PI-RADS 3 lesions. Moreover, the study showed no significant association of the GG changes with race, age, location of the lesions, or prostate volume. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that in PI-RADS 3 cancerous nodules, the chance of the pathology changes in the final pathology of RP specimens was low. Furthermore, having multiple PI-RADS 3 nodules did not change the conclusion, as the possibility of grade changes in patients with multiple nodules was similar to those with solitary lesions.

Keywords: prostate, adenocarcinoma, multiparametric MRI, Gleason score, robot-assisted surgery

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Authors: Mandy Tao Benec

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Propaganda, understood as a ‘deliberate attempt to persuade people to think and behave in a desired way’, contributes to the fabric of mass media discourse as an important component, albeit often under various alternative expressions except ‘propaganda’. When the word ‘propaganda’ does appear in the mainstream media of the West, it is often selectively applied upon undesiring parties such as China, the North Korea, Russia’s Putin, or terrorists, etc.. This attitude reveals an ‘us verse them’ mentality; and a presupposition that propaganda is something only ‘they’ do whilst ‘we’ do not. This phenomenon not only runs in danger of generating political naivety, but also calls for the necessity of re-examining propaganda which will benefit from analysing it in contrasting social and political environments. Therefore, this paper aims to compare how propaganda has been understood and put in practice both in the Anglo-American context and by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). By revealing the convergence and divergence of the propaganda discourses between China and the West, it will help clarify the misconception and misunderstanding of the term. Historical narrative analysis and critical discourse analysis are the main methodologies. By carefully examining data from academic research on propaganda in both English and Chinese, the landscape of how propaganda is defined throughout different eras is mapped, with special attention paid to analysing the parallelism and/or correspondence between China and the West when applicable. Meanwhile, critically analysing the official documents such as speeches and guidelines for propaganda administration given by top-rank CCP leaders will help reveal that in contrast to the West’s ‘us-them’ mentality, China sees oneself in no difference with the Western democracies when propaganda is concerned. Major findings of this study will identify a series of convergence and divergence between Chinese and Western propaganda discourses, and the relationship between propaganda the ‘signified’ (its essence) and propaganda the ‘signifier’ (the term itself), including (yet not limited to): 1) convergence in China catching up with the West, acknowledging the perceived pejorative connotation of the term 2) divergence in propaganda activities disassociated from the term in the West; and convergence in adopting such practice when China following suit in its external propaganda towards the West 3) convergence in utilising alternative notions to replace ‘propaganda’, first by the West, then imported and incorporated enthusiastically by China into its propaganda discourse 4) divergence between China’s internal and external propaganda and the subsequent differentiation between in which contexts the CCP sees fit to utilise the concept 5) convergence between China and the West in their English language propaganda discourses, whilst simultaneous divergence in their presuppositions: ‘usthem’ by the West and ‘we are the same’ by China. To conclude, this paper will contribute to the study of propaganda and its discourse by analysing how propaganda is understood and utilised in both worlds, and hence to uncover the discourse power struggle between the two, which contributes to the propaganda discourse itself. Hence, to untie the misconception of propaganda.

Keywords: China, discourse, power, propaganda

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Authors: Ina Nasto, Denada Sota, Pudrila Haskoçelaj, Mariola Ismailaj, Hajdar Kicaj

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Most of the fishing areas of the Mediterranean Sea are considered to be overfished, consequently fishing has decreased or is static. Considering the continuous increase in demand for fish, the option of aquaculture production has had a growing development in recent decades. The environmental impact of aquaculture in the marine ecosystem has been a subject of study for several years in the Mediterranean. In the case of the Albanian waters, and in particular the Gulf of Vlora, have had a progressive growing of aquaculture activity in the last twenty years. Given the convenient and secluded location for tourist activities, the bay of Ragusa was considered as the most suitable area to install the aquaculture cage system for the breeding of sea bass and sea bream. The impact of aquaculture in on the soft bottom benthic communities has been assessed at the biggest commercial fish farm (Alb-Adriatico Sh.P.K) established in coastal waters of Ragusa bay 30–50 m deep, in the southern part of the Gulf of Vlora. In order to determine if there is a possible impact on the aquaculture cage in benthic communities, a comparative analysis was undertaken between transects and samples with differences in distances between them and with a gradient of distance from the fish cages. A total of 275 taxa were identified (1 Foraminifera, 1 Porifera, 3 Cnidaria, 2 Platyhelminthes, 2 Nemertea, 1 Bryozoa, 171 Mollusca, 39 Annelida, 35 Crustacea, 14 Echinodermata, 1 Hemichordata, and 5 Tunicata). The anaysis showed three main habitats in the area: biocoenosis of terrigenous mud, residual areas with Possidonia oceanica and also residual assemblages of algal coralligenous. Four benthic biotic indexes were calculated (Shannon H ’, BENTIX, Simpson's Diversity and Peilou’s J’) also benthic indicators as total abundance, number of taxa and species frequency to evaluate possible ecological impact of fish cages in Ragusa bay.

Keywords: Bentix index, Benthic community, invertebrates, aquaculture, Raguza bay

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Authors: Amar F. Siddique

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The Guwahati city is one of the fastest growing cities of the north-eastern region of India, situated on the South Bank of the Brahmaputra River falls in the highest seismic zone level V. The city has witnessed many high magnitude earthquakes in the past decades. The Assam earthquake occurred on August 15, 1950, of moment magnitude 8.7 epicentered near Rima, Tibet was one of the major earthquakes which caused a serious structural damage and widespread soil liquefaction in and around the region. Hence the study of ground motion characteristics of Guwahati city is very essential. In this present work 1D equivalent linear ground response analysis (GRA) has been adopted using Deep soil software. The analysis has been done for two typical sites namely, Panbazar and Azara comprising total four boreholes location in Guwahati city of India. GRA of the sites is carried out by using an input motion recorded at Nongpoh station (recorded PGA 0.048g) and Nongstoin station (recorded PGA 0.047g) of 1997 Indo-Burma earthquake. In comparison to motion recorded at Nongpoh, different amplifications of bedrock peak ground acceleration (PGA) are obtained for all the boreholes by the motion recorded at Nongstoin station; although, the Fourier amplitude ratios (FAR) and fundamental frequencies remain almost same. The difference in recorded duration and frequency content of the two motions mainly influence the amplification of motions thus getting different surface PGA and amplification factor keeping a constant bedrock PGA. From the results of response spectra, it is found that at the period of less than 0.2 sec the ground motion recorded at Nongpoh station will give a high spectral acceleration (SA) on the structures than at Nongstoin station. Again for a period greater than 0.2 sec the ground motion recorded at Nongstoin station will give a high SA on the structures than at Nongpoh station.

Keywords: fourier amplitude ratio, ground response analysis, peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration

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Authors: Younes El Khchine

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×105 and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, causing earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, s809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Shadi Fathi, Moura Mehravar, Mujib Rahman

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The railwaytransportation network in the UK is over 100 years old and is known as one of the oldest mass transit systems in the world. This aged track network requires frequent closure for maintenance. One of the main reasons for closure is inadequate drainage due to the leakage in the buried drainage pipes. The leaking water can cause localised subgrade weakness, which subsequently can lead to major ground/substructure failure.Different condition assessment methods are available to assess the railway substructure. However, the existing condition assessment methods are not able to detect any local ground weakness/damageand provide details of the damage (e.g. size and location). To tackle this issue, a hybrid back-analysis technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) has been developed to predict the substructurelayers’ moduli and identify any soil weaknesses. At first, afinite element (FE) model of a railway track section under Falling Weight Deflection (FWD) testing was developed and validated against field trial. Then a drainage pipe and various scenarios of the local defect/ soil weakness around the buried pipe with various geometriesand physical properties were modelled. The impact of the soil local weaknesson the track surface deflection wasalso studied. The FE simulations results were used to generate a database for ANN training, and then a GA wasemployed as an optimisation tool to optimise and back-calculate layers’ moduli and soil weakness moduli (ANN’s input). The hybrid ANN-GA back-analysis technique is a computationally efficient method with no dependency on seed modulus values. The modelcan estimate substructures’ layer moduli and the presence of any localised foundation weakness.

Keywords: finite element (FE) model, drainage defect, falling weight deflectometer (FWD), hybrid ANN-GA

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Authors: Joseph F. Cabrera, Rachael Dela Cruz

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This study specifically examines patterns that define ethnoracially diverse neighborhoods. Ethnoracial diversity is important as it facilitates cross-racial interactions within neighborhoods which have been theorized to be associated with such outcomes as intergroup harmony, the reduction of racial and ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and increases in racial tolerance. Los Angeles (LA) is an ideal location to study ethnoracial spatial patterns as it is one of the most ethnoracially diverse cities in the world. A large influx of Latinos, as well as Asians, have contributed to LA’s urban landscape becoming increasingly diverse over several decades. Our dataset contains all census tracts in Los Angeles County in 2016 and incorporates Census and ACS demographic and spatial data. We quantify ethnoracial diversity using a derivative of Simpson’s Diversity Index and utilize this measure to test previous literature that suggests Latinos are one of the key drivers of changing ethnoracial spatial patterns in Los Angeles. Preliminary results suggest that there has been an overall increase in ethnoracial diversity in Los Angeles neighborhoods over the past sixteen years. Patterns associated with this trend include decreases in predominantly white and black neighborhoods, increases in predominantly Latino and Asian neighborhoods, and a general decrease in the white populations of the most diverse neighborhoods. A similar pattern is seen in neighborhoods with large Latino increases- a decrease in white population, but with an increase in Asian and black populations. We also found support for previous research that suggests increases in Latino and Asian populations act as a buffer, allowing for black population increases without a sizeable decrease in the white population. Future research is needed to understand the underlying causes involved in many of the patterns and trends highlighted in this study.

Keywords: race, race and interaction, racial harmony, social interaction

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Authors: Chidiebere C. Agoha, Chukwuebuka N. Onwubuariri, Collins U.amasike, Tochukwu I. Mgbeojedo, Joy O. Njoku, Lawson J. Osaki, Ifeyinwa J. Ofoh, Francis B. Akiang, Dominic N. Anuforo

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In order to interpret the airborne magnetic data and evaluate the approximate location, depth, and geometry of the magnetic sources within Obudu area using the standard Euler deconvolution method, very high-resolution aeromagnetic data over the area was acquired, processed digitally and analyzed using Oasis Montaj 8.5 software. Data analysis and enhancement techniques, including reduction to the equator, horizontal derivative, first and second vertical derivatives, upward continuation and regional-residual separation, were carried out for the purpose of detailed data Interpretation. Standard Euler deconvolution for structural indices of 0, 1, 2, and 3 was also carried out and respective maps were obtained using the Euler deconvolution algorithm. Results show that the total magnetic intensity ranges from -122.9nT to 147.0nT, regional intensity varies between -106.9nT to 137.0nT, while residual intensity ranges between -51.5nT to 44.9nT clearly indicating the masking effect of deep-seated structures over surface and shallow subsurface magnetic materials. Results also indicated that the positive residual anomalies have an NE-SW orientation, which coincides with the trend of major geologic structures in the area. Euler deconvolution for all the considered structural indices has depth to magnetic sources ranging from the surface to more than 2000m. Interpretation of the various structural indices revealed the locations and depths of the source bodies and the existence of geologic models, including sills, dykes, pipes, and spherical structures. This area is characterized by intrusive and very shallow basement materials and represents an excellent prospect for solid mineral exploration and development.

Keywords: Euler deconvolution, horizontal derivative, Obudu, structural indices

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Authors: N. P. Bhandary, R. C. Tiwari, R. Yatabe

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The research employs finite element method to evaluate the stability of roadside settlements slopes from Barpak to Yamagaon through Laprak village of Gorkha, Nepal after the 7.8Mw 2015 Barpak, Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. It includes three major villages of Gorkha, i.e., Barpak, Laprak and Yamagaun that were devastated by 2015 Gorkhas’ earthquake. The road head distance from the Barpak to Laprak and Laprak to Yamagaun are about 14 and 29km respectively. The epicentral distance of main shock of magnitude 7.8 and aftershock of magnitude 6.6 were respectively 7 and 11 kilometers (South-East) far from the Barpak village nearer to Laprak and Yamagaon. It is also believed that the epicenter of the main shock as said until now was not in the Barpak village, it was somewhere near to the Yamagaun village. The chaos that they had experienced during the earthquake in the Yamagaun was much more higher than the Barpak. In this context, we have carried out a detailed study to investigate the stability of Yamagaun settlements slope as a case study, where ground fissures, ground settlement, multiple cracks and toe failures are the most severe. In this regard, the stability issues of existing settlements and proposed road alignment, on the Yamagaon village slope are addressed, which is surrounded by many newly activated landslides. Looking at the importance of this issue, field survey is carried out to understand the behavior of ground fissures and multiple failure characteristics of the slopes. The results suggest that the Yamgaun slope in Profile 2-2, 3-3 and 4-4 are not safe enough for infrastructure development even in the normal soil slope conditions as per 2, 3 and 4 material models; however, the slope seems quite safe for at Profile 1-1 for all 4 material models. The result also indicates that the first three profiles are marginally safe for 2, 3 and 4 material models respectively. The Profile 4-4 is not safe enough for all 4 material models. Thus, Profile 4-4 needs a special care to make the slope stable.

Keywords: earthquake, finite element method, landslide, stability

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Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: integrated urban water management, urban water system, wastewater governance, wastewater treatment works

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