Search results for: risk based inspection

Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

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In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: break even point, fuzzy crisp data, fuzzy sets, productivity, productivity cycle, total productive maintenance

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Authors: Aldona Anna Osajda

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Suicide is a phenomenon that worries both the public and scientists in various fields. In society, suicide is a taboo subject, and in addition, there are many myths and stereotypes that are detrimental to the proper understanding and appropriate response of a person at risk of suicide. It is necessary to educate society and the suicide prevention system for various age groups. The research covers the level of knowledge and views of Polish society, including teachers and youth, regarding suicides. The main research problem is to establish the level of awareness of Polish society about the phenomenon of suicides. The study will be based on the diagnostic survey method, using the survey technique. Information about the research will be disseminated electronically on the Internet via social messaging. The collected data will be analyzed using appropriate statistics. On the basis of the obtained results, answers will be given to research questions, which will become the basis for designing an appropriate educational strategy for the society in the field of suicide and developing recommendations and recommendations for teachers to conduct classes in the field of suicide prevention for children and adolescents.

Keywords: phenomenon of suicides, suicide, suicide prevention, suicidology

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Authors: Pheeraphat Ussadamongkol, Suthasinee Sinawat

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Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the anatomical and visual outcomes associated with the use of heavy silicone oil (HSO) during pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) in patients with rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Materials and methods: A Total of 66 eyes of 66 patients with RRD patients who underwent PPV with HSO from 2018-2023 were included in this retrospective study. Risk factors of surgical outcomes were also investigated. Results: The mean age of the recruited patients was 55.26 ± 13.05 years. The most common diagnosis was recurrent RRD, with 43 patients (65.15%), and the majority of these patients (81.39%) had a history of multiple vitreoretinal surgeries. Inferior breaks and PVR grade ≧ C were present in 65.15% and 42.42% of cases, respectively. The mean duration of HSO tamponade was 7.77+5.19 months. The retinal attachment rate after surgery was 71.21%, with a final attachment rate of 87.88%. The mean final VA was 1.62 ± 1.11 logMAR. 54.54% of patients could achieve a final visual acuity (VA)  6/60. Multivariate analysis revealed that proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) and multiple breaks were significantly associated with retinal redetachment, while initial good VA (  6/60) was associated with good visual outcome ( 6/60). The most common complications were glaucoma (30.3%) and epimacular membrane (7.58%). Conclusion: The use of heavy silicone oil in pars plana vitrectomy for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment yields favorable anatomical and visual outcomes. Factors associated with retinal redetachment are proliferative vitreoretinopathy and multiple breaks. Good initial VA can predict good visual outcomes.

Keywords: rhegmatogenous retinal detachment, heavy silicone oil, surgical outcome, visual outcome, risk factors

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Authors: Divine Kwaku Ahadzie

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Project management (PM) as a concept has evolved from the early 20th Century into a recognized academic and professional discipline, and indications are that it has come to stay in the 21st Century as a world-wide paradigm shift for managing successful construction projects. However, notwithstanding the strong inroads that PM has made in legitimizing its academic and professional status in construction management practice, the underlining philosophies are still based on cases and conventional practices. An important theoretical issue yet to be addressed is the lack of a universal theory that offers philosophical legitimacy for the PM concept as a uniquely specialized management concept. Here, it is hypothesized that the law of entropy, the theory of uncertainties and the theory of risk management offer plausible explanations for addressing the lacuna of what constitute PM theory. The theoretical bases of these plausible underlying theories are argued and attempts made to establish the functional relationships that exist between these theories and the PM concept. The paper then draws on data related to the success and/or failure of a number of construction projects to validate the theory.

Keywords: concepts, construction, project management, universal theory

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Authors: Papazafeiropoulou Olga

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The “Athens Dramatic Company” was one of the longest-running and most widely traveled troupes in the history of modern Greek theatre. The theatre company had been established since 1887, and the following: Euthychios Vonaseras, Eleni Kotopoulis, etc., like the founder of the troupe Theodoros Pofantis, referred to the distribution of the works presented in Patras: The price of a crime, The niece of her uncle, Agathopoulos, Amphitryon, The Two Sergeants, Lawyer and Actors, The Crusaders, The Daughter of Pantopolos, He Will Kill Himself, Macbeth, The Two Orphans, The Auction, Pistis Hope and Mercy, Love Attempt, The Crusaders, The lady is in Loutra, Markos Votsaris. In 1921, after peregrinations in Cyprus, Constantinople, Romania, Crete, Thessaloniki, Volos, Smyrna, the “Athens Dramatic Company” toured in Africa, where the Greek communities flourished. In 1923, the collaborations of troupe’s members and the repertoire varied several times, such as in Johannesburg, from where they traveled via Cape Town to Australia, where they presented the works: Dikaioma o Eros, Enochos, Psychokori, Kolokotronis. Atimoi, Voskopoula, Golfo, etc., while they impressed with the tragedy Oedipus Tyrannus, which was watched by Australians. Alongside the “Athens Dramatic Company” was also touring “Vrysoula’s Pantopoulos Troupe” and most of the members of the two troupes went to America, uniting their formation. In 1927, the old leader of “Athens Dramatic Company” (Theodoros Pofantis) decided to re-establish his troupe, but after unpleasant adventures, he passed away. In the year 1934, the Greek Dramatic Troupe of Athens revived with works including: The Man of the Day, A Dying Heart, A Dream Was and Gone, An Inspection, The Two Sergeants, The Mother, the Father-in-Law and the Non-existent Son-in-law, before finally expiring in 1935, after nearly 40 years of historical passage.

Keywords: athens, dramatic, company, universal, troupe

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Folami, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, Feroz Mohomed Swalaha

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Water is a vital resource that is important in ensuring the growth and development of any country. To sustain the basic human needs and the demands for agriculture, industry, conservational and ecosystem, enough quality and quantity water is needed. Contamination of water resources is now a global and public health concern. Hence, this study assessed the water quality of Ndawuse River by measuring the physicochemical parameters and heavy metals concentrations of the river using standard methods. In total, 16 surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river, from upstream to downstream as well as samples from the dumpsite. The results obtained were compared with the standard limits set by both the World Health Organization and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency for domestic purposes. The results of the measured parameters indicated that biological oxygen demand (85.88 mg/L), turbidity (44.51 NTU), Iron (0.014 - 3.511 mg /L) and chromium (0.078 - 0.14 mg /L) were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on this river as their primary source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws to protect the aquatic ecosystem and to avoid long term cumulative exposure risk that heavy metals may pose on human health.

Keywords: Abuja, contaminants, heavy metals, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

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Authors: Deeksha Arora

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The study aims to explore the applicability of the widely used asset pricing models, namely, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French Four Factor Model in the Indian equity market. The study will be based on the companies that form part of the Nifty Fifty Index for a period of five years: 2011 to 2016. The asset pricing model is examined by forming portfolios on the basis of three variables – market capitalization (size effect), book-to-market equity ratio (value effect) and profitability. The study provides a basis to test the presence of the Fama-French Four factor model in Indian stock market. This study may provide a basis for future research in the generalized asset pricing model comprising of multiple risk factors.

Keywords: book to market equity, Fama French four factor model, market capitalization, profitability, size effect, value effect

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Authors: A. F. G. Van Woezik, L. M. A. Braakman-Jansen, O. A. Kulyk, J. E. W. C. Van Gemert-Pijnen

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Background: Zoonoses pose a serious threat to public health and economies worldwide, especially as antimicrobial resistance grows and newly emerging zoonoses can cause unpredictable outbreaks. In order to prevent and control emerging and re-emerging zoonoses, collaboration between veterinary, human health and public health domains is essential. In reality however, there is a lack of cooperation between these three disciplines and uncertainties exist about their tasks and responsibilities. The objective of this ongoing research project (ZonMw funded, 2014-2018) is to develop an online education and communication One Health platform, “eZoon”, for the general public and professionals working in veterinary, human health and public health domains to support the risk communication of non-alimentary zoonoses in the Netherlands. The main focus is on education and communication in times of outbreak as well as in daily non-outbreak situations. Methods: A participatory development approach was used in which stakeholders from veterinary, human health and public health domains participated. Key stakeholders were identified using business modeling techniques previously used for the design and implementation of antibiotic stewardship interventions and consisted of a literature scan, expert recommendations, and snowball sampling. We used a stakeholder salience approach to rank stakeholders according to their power, legitimacy, and urgency. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with stakeholders (N=20) from all three disciplines to identify current problems in risk communication and stakeholder values for the One Health platform. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded inductively by two researchers. Results: The following key values were identified (but were not limited to): (a) need for improved awareness of veterinary and human health of each other’s fields, (b) information exchange between veterinary and human health, in particularly at a regional level; (c) legal regulations need to match with daily practice; (d) professionals and general public need to be addressed separately using tailored language and information; (e) information needs to be of value to professionals (relevant, important, accurate, and have financial or other important consequences if ignored) in order to be picked up; and (f) need for accurate information from trustworthy, centrally organised sources to inform the general public. Conclusion: By applying a participatory development approach, we gained insights from multiple perspectives into the main problems of current risk communication strategies in the Netherlands and stakeholder values. Next, we will continue the iterative development of the One Health platform by presenting key values to stakeholders for validation and ranking, which will guide further development. We will develop a communication platform with a serious game in which professionals at the regional level will be trained in shared decision making in time-critical outbreak situations, a smart Question & Answer (Q&A) system for the general public tailored towards different user profiles, and social media to inform the general public adequately during outbreaks.

Keywords: ehealth, one health, risk communication, stakeholder, zoonosis

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Authors: Jazmi Adlan Bohari, I. Dewa Ketut Kerta Widana

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Education on disaster management has been made as a mainstream focus of many countries. In Indonesia, this has been emphasized with the direct order of the President of Indonesia to implement disaster education at all levels in both formal and informal education. Indonesia Defense University (IDU) executes this order through Three Pillars of Higher Education, which consists of research, education, and community service. One of them is a five-day disaster management training for 105 participants divided into three batches that consist of faculty members and graduate students. This training uses the 2018 Basic Disaster Management Training Modul issued by the Indonesia National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB). This research aims to analyze the impact of this short training on the trainee’s knowledge and understanding of basic disaster management. This study is a qualitative research with case study approach. The research shows that after five days of training, there as a significant increase in knowledge and understanding of basic disaster management experienced by the trainees with a 61,73% overall increase. The post-training data shows that 61% of the trainees have a very good understanding, 24% with good understanding, 13% with adequate understanding, and 2% with poor understanding. The result suggests that a short-time education with a structured curriculum can successfully increase the knowledge and understanding of disaster management on a basic level and can hypothetically contribute to the effort to reduce disaster risks.

Keywords: disaster education, basic disaster management training, three Pillars of Higher Education, disaster risk reduction

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Authors: Niyada Naksuk, Thoetchai Peeraphatdit, Vitaly Herasevich, Peter A. Brady, Suraj Kapa, Samuel J. Asirvatham

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Introduction: Little is known about the safety of antipsychotic therapy for delirium in the coronary care unit (CCU). Our aim was to examine the effect of delirium and antipsychotic therapy among CCU patients. Methods: Pre-study Confusion Assessment Method-Intensive Care Unit (CAM–ICU) criteria were implemented in screening consecutive patients admitted to Mayo Clinic, Rochester, the USA from 2004 through 2013. Death status was prospectively ascertained. Results: Of 11,079 study patients, the incidence of delirium was 8.3% (n=925). Delirium was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.08-2.08; P=.02) and one-year mortality among patients who survived from CCU admission (adjusted HR 1.46; 95% CI, 1.12-1.87; P=.005). A total of 792 doses of haloperidol (5 IQR [3-10] mg/day) or quetiapine (25 IQR [13-50] mg/day) were given to 244 patients with delirium. The clinical characteristics of patients with delirium who did and did not receive antipsychotic therapy were not different (baseline corrected QT [QTc] interval 460±61 ms vs. 457±58 ms, respectively; P = 0.57). In comparison to baseline, mean QTc intervals after the first and third doses of the antipsychotics were not significantly prolonged in haloperidol (448±56, 458±57, and 450±50 ms, respectively) or quetiapine groups (459±54, 467±68, and 462±46 ms, respectively) (P > 0.05 for all). Additionally, in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.42-1.04; P=.07), ventricular arrhythmia (adjusted OR 0.87; 95% CI, 0.17-3.62; P=.85) and one-year mortality among the hospital survivors (adjusted HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.62-1.17; P = 0.34) were not different in patients with delirium irrespective of whether or not they received antipsychotics. Conclusions: In patients admitted to the CCU, delirium was associated with an increase in both in-hospital and one-year mortality. Low doses of haloperidol and quetiapine appeared to be safe, without an increase in risk of sudden cardiac death, in-hospital mortality, or one-year mortality in carefully monitored patients.

Keywords: arrhythmias, haloperidol, mortality, qtc interval, quetiapine

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Authors: Masahiro Miyaji

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When a driver happens to be involved in some traffic congestion or after traffic incidents, the driver may fall in a state of anger. State of anger may encounter decisive risk resulting in severer traffic accidents. Preventive safety function using driver’s psychosomatic state with regard to anger may be one of solutions which would avoid that kind of risks. Identifying driver’s anger state is important to create countermeasures to prevent the risk of traffic accidents. As a first step, this research figured out root cause of traffic incidents by means of using Internet survey. From statistical analysis of the survey, dominant psychosomatic states immediately before traffic incidents were haste, distraction, drowsiness and anger. Then, we replicated anger state of a driver while driving, and then, replicated it by means of using driving simulator on bench test basis. Six types of facial expressions including anger were introduced as alternative characteristics. Kohonen neural network was adopted to classify anger state. Then, we created a methodology to detect anger state of a driver in high accuracy. We presented a driving support safety function. The function adapts driver’s anger state in cooperation with an autonomous driving unit to reduce the number of traffic accidents. Consequently, e evaluated reduction rate of driver’s anger in the traffic accident. To validate the estimation results, we referred the reduction rate of Advanced Safety Vehicle (ASV) as well as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

Keywords: Kohonen neural network, driver’s anger state, reduction of traffic accidents, driver’s state adaptive driving support safety

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Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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Authors: Benjamin K. Ghansah, Richard K. Appoh, Iliya Nababa, Eric K. Forkuo

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The Nasia River is an important source of water for domestic and agricultural purposes to the inhabitants of its catchment. Major farming activities takes place within the floodplain of the river and its network of tributaries. The actual inundation extent of the river system is; however, unknown. Reasons for this lack of information include financial constraints and inadequate human resources as flood modelling is becoming increasingly complex by the day. Knowledge of the inundation extent will help in the assessment of risk posed by the annual flooding of the river, and help in the planning of flood recession agricultural activities. This study used a simple terrain based algorithm, Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), to delineate the floodplain of the Nasia River and its tributaries. The HAND model is a drainage normalized digital elevation model, which has its height reference based on the local drainage systems rather than the average mean sea level (AMSL). The underlying principle guiding the development of the HAND model is that hillslope flow paths behave differently when the reference gradient is to the local drainage network as compared to the seaward gradient. The new terrain model of the catchment was created using the NASA’s SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 30m as the only data input. Contours (HAND Contour) were then generated from the normalized DEM. Based on field flood inundation survey, historical information of flooding of the area as well as satellite images, a HAND Contour of 2m was found to best correlates with the flood inundation extent of the river and its tributaries. A percentage accuracy of 75% was obtained when the surface area created by the 2m contour was compared with surface area of the floodplain computed from a satellite image captured during the peak flooding season in September 2016. It was estimated that the flooding of the Nasia River and its tributaries created a floodplain area of 1011 km².

Keywords: digital elevation model, floodplain, HAND contour, inundation extent, Nasia River

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Authors: Devin Doos, Ashley Hughes, Trang Pham, Paul Barach, Rami Ahmed

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Over 115,000 Health Care Workers (HCWs) have died from COVID-19, and millions have been infected while caring for patients. HCWs have filed thousands of safety complaints surrounding safety concerns due to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) shortages, which included concerns around inadequate and PPE reuse. Protocols for donning and doffing PPE remain ambiguous, lacking an evidence-base, and often result in wide deviations in practice. PPE donning and doffing protocol deviations commonly result in self-contamination but have not been thoroughly addressed. No evidence-driven protocols provide guidance on protecting HCW during periods of PPE reuse. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine safety-related threats and risks to Health Care Workers (HCWs) due to the reuse of PPE among Emergency Department personnel. Method: We conducted a prospective observational study to examine the risks of reusing PPE. First, ED personnel were asked to don and doff PPE in a simulation lab. Each participant was asked to don and doff PPE five times, according to the maximum reuse recommendation set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Each participant was videorecorded; video recordings were reviewed and coded independently by at least 2 of the 3trained coders for safety behaviors and riskiness of actions. A third coder was brought in when the agreement between the 2 coders could not be reached. Agreement between coders was high (81.9%), and all disagreements (100%) were resolved via consensus. A bowtie risk assessment chart was constructed analyzing the factors that contribute to increased risks HCW are faced with due to PPE use and reuse. Agreement amongst content experts in the field of Emergency Medicine, Human Factors, and Anesthesiology was used to select aspects of health care that both contribute and mitigate risks associated with PPE reuse. Findings: Twenty-eight clinician participants completed five rounds of donning/doffing PPE, yielding 140 PPE donning/doffing sequences. Two emerging threats were associated with behaviors in donning, doffing, and re-using PPE: (i) direct exposure to contaminant, and (ii) transmission/spread of contaminant. Protective behaviors included: hand hygiene, not touching the patient-facing surface of PPE, and ensuring a proper fit and closure of all PPE materials. 100% of participants (n= 28) deviated from the CDC recommended order, and most participants (92.85%, n=26) self-contaminated at least once during reuse. Other frequent errors included failure to tie all ties on the PPE (92.85%, n=26) and failure to wash hands after a contamination event occurred (39.28%, n=11). Conclusions: There is wide variation and regular errors in how HCW don and doffPPE while including in reusing PPE that led to self-contamination. Some errors were deemed “recoverable”, such as hand washing after touching a patient-facing surface to remove the contaminant. Other errors, such as using a contaminated mask and accidentally spreading to the neck and face, can lead to compound risks that are unique to repeated PPE use. A more comprehensive understanding of the contributing threats to HCW safety and complete approach to mitigating underlying risks, including visualizing with risk management toolsmay, aid future PPE designand workflow and space solutions.

Keywords: bowtie analysis, health care, PPE reuse, risk management

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Authors: Yoseph Halala Handiso, Zewdi Gebregziabher

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Background: Malnutrition in hospitalized patients remains a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. Despite the fact that malnourished patients are more prone to stay longer in hospital, there is limited data regarding the magnitude of malnutrition and its effect on length of stay among surgical patients in Ethiopia, while nutritional assessment is also often a neglected component of the health service practice. Objective: This study aimed to assess the prevalence of malnutrition at admission and its effect on the length of hospital stay among adult surgical patients in Wolaita Sodo University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, South Ethiopia, 2022. Methods: A facility-based prospective cohort study was conducted among 398 adult surgical patients admitted to the hospital. Participants in the study were chosen using a convenient sampling technique. Subjective global assessment was used to determine the nutritional status of patients with a minimum stay of 24 hours within 48 hours after admission (SGA). Data were collected using the open data kit (ODK) version 2022.3.3 software, while Stata version 14.1 software was employed for statistical analysis. The Cox regression model was used to determine the effect of malnutrition on the length of hospital stay (LOS) after adjusting for several potential confounders taken at admission. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to show the effect of malnutrition. Results: The prevalence of hospital malnutrition at admission was 64.32% (95% CI: 59%-69%) according to the SGA classification. Adult surgical patients who were malnourished at admission had higher median LOS (12 days: 95% CI: 11-13) as compared to well-nourished patients (8 days: 95% CI: 8-9), means adult surgical patients who were malnourished at admission were at higher risk of reduced chance of discharge with improvement (prolonged LOS) (AHR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.29-0.47) as compared to well-nourished patients. Presence of comorbidity (AHR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50-90), poly medication (AHR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.55-0.86), and history of admission (AHR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.87) within the previous five years were found to be the significant covariates of the length of hospital stay (LOS). Conclusion: The magnitude of hospital malnutrition at admission was found to be high. Malnourished patients at admission had a higher risk of prolonged length of hospital stay as compared to well-nourished patients. The presence of comorbidity, polymedication, and history of admission were found to be the significant covariates of LOS. All stakeholders should give attention to reducing the magnitude of malnutrition and its covariates to improve the burden of LOS.

Keywords: effect of malnutrition, length of hospital stay, surgical patients, Ethiopia

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Mustafa Mabruk

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Groups such as Al-Shabaab have managed to radicalize many individuals abroad, including the first American citizen to ever be radicalized. Yet the pathways of radicalization for these foreign individuals are understudied. Moreover, current measures to prevent foreign radicalization are ineffective, with privacy, screening and profiling implications that render current counter-radicalization efforts counterproductive. Such measures exhibit strictness, political bias, and harshness. As confirmed by recent studies, such counter-radicalization issues exacerbate existing grievances and channel fresh recruits to Al-Shabaab. Addressing these challenges is paramount, requiring alternative strategies to effectively reduce radicalization without triggering further harm. The development of counter-narratives emerges as a potential measure with minimal risk of exacerbating grievances, yet the development of such counter-narratives necessitates a thorough understanding of the radicalization pathways of foreign individuals that are understudied. This study investigates the success of Al-Shabaab in recruiting individuals abroad by analyzing their propaganda in conjunction with analyzing identity-focused theories of radicalization, including Framing Theory and Social Identity Theory. Qualitative content analysis is used to analyze various propaganda material, including tweets, speeches, and webpages. The analysis reveals that issues of identity are of major significance in the radicalization patterns identified and that grievances of Muslims worldwide are used to exploit identity-related grievances. Based on these findings, the paper argues that such evidence enhances our understanding of potential deradicalization pathways and present counter-narratives based on Islamic scripture.

Keywords: counter-narratives, foreign radicalization, identity grievances, propaganda analysis

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Authors: Masa Popovac, Philip Fine

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Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have altered our social environments, and young people in particular have immersed themselves in the digital age. Despite countless benefits, younger ICT users are being exposed to various online risks such as contact with strangers, viewing of risky content, sending or receiving sexually themed images or comments (i.e. ‘sexting’) as well as cyber bullying. Parents may not be fully aware of the online spaces their children inhabit and often struggle to implement effective mediation strategies. This quantitative study explored (i) three types of online risks (contact risks, content risks and conduct risks), (ii) cyber bullying victimization and perpetration, and (iii) parental mediation among a sample of 689 South African adolescents aged between 12-17 years. Survey data was also collected for 227 of their parents relating to their perceptions of their child’s online experiences. A comparison between adolescent behaviors and parental perceptions was examined on the three variables in the study. Findings reveal various online risk taking behaviors. In terms of contact risks, 56% of adolescents reported having contact with at least one online stranger, with many meeting these strangers in person. Content risks included exposure to harmful information such as websites promoting extreme diets or self-harm as well as inappropriate content: 84% of adolescents had seen violent content and 75% had seen sexual content online. Almost 60% of adolescents engaged in conduct risks such as sexting. Eight online victimization behaviors were examined in the study and 79% of adolescents had at least one of these negative experiences, with a third (34%) defining this experience as cyber bullying. A strong connection between victimization and perpetration was found, with 63% of adolescents being both a victim and perpetrator. Very little parental mediation of ICT use was reported. Inferential statistics revealed that parents consistently underestimated their child’s online risk taking behaviors as well as their cyber bullying victimization and perpetration. Parents also overestimated mediation strategies in the home. The generational gap in the knowledge and use of ICTs is a barrier to effective parental mediation and online safety, since many negative online experiences by adolescents go undetected and can continue for extended periods of time thereby exacerbating the potential psychological and emotional distress. The study highlights the importance of including parents in online safety efforts.

Keywords: cyber bullying, online risk behaviors, parental mediation, South Africa

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Authors: K. Umbleja, M. Ichino, H. Yaguchi

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In this paper, we propose a coloring method for multivariate data visualization by using parallel coordinates based on dissimilarity and tree structure information gathered during hierarchical clustering. The proposed method is an extension for proximity-based coloring that suffers from a few undesired side effects if hierarchical tree structure is not balanced tree. We describe the algorithm by assigning colors based on dissimilarity information, show the application of proposed method on three commonly used datasets, and compare the results with proximity-based coloring. We found our proposed method to be especially beneficial for symbolic data visualization where many individual objects have already been aggregated into a single symbolic object.

Keywords: data visualization, dissimilarity-based coloring, proximity-based coloring, symbolic data

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Authors: Marilyn Painagan

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This study was conducted to predict the potential geographical distribution of the banana aphid (Pentalonia negronervosa) in North Cotabato through climate envelope approach of DIVA-GIS, a software for analyzing the distribution of organisms to elucidate geographic and ecological patterns. A WorldClim database that was based on weather conditions recorded last 1950 to 2000 with a spatial resolution of approximately 1x1 km. was used in the bioclimatic modelling, this database includes temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and bioclimatic variables which was measured at many different locations, a bioclimatic modelling was done in the study. The study revealed that the western part of Magpet and Arakan and the municipality of Antipas are at high potential risk of occurrence of banana aphid while it is not likely to occur in the municipalities of Aleosan, Midsayap, Pikit, M’lang and Tulunan. The result of this study can help developed strategies for monitoring and managing this serious pest of banana and to prepare a mitigation measures on those areas that are potential for future infestation.

Keywords: banana aphid, bioclimatic model, bunchy top, climatic envelope approach

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Authors: Suba Periyal Subramaniam, Babette Scheres, Altomare Corrado, Holger Schuttrumpf

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Due to the climatic change and the usage of coastal areas, there is an increasing risk of dike failures along the coast worldwide. Wave run-up plays a key role in planning and design of a coastal structure. The coastal dike lines are bent either due to geological characteristics or due to influence of anthropogenic activities. The effect of the curvature of coastal dikes on wave run-up and overtopping is not yet investigated. The scope of this research is to find the effects of the dike curvature on wave run-up by employing numerical model studies for various dike opening angles. Numerical simulation is carried out using DualSPHysics, a meshless method, and OpenFOAM, a mesh-based method. The numerical results of the wave run-up on a curved dike and the wave transformation process for various opening angles, wave attacks, and wave parameters will be compared and discussed. This research aims to contribute a more precise analysis and understanding the influence of the curvature in the dike line and thus ensuring a higher level of protection in the future development of coastal structures.

Keywords: curved dikes, DualSPHysics, OpenFOAM, wave run-up

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Authors: Raed Alsufyani, Hissam Tawfik, Victor Chang, Muthu Ramachandran

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This study investigates the factors that influence the decision by players in the healthcare sector to embrace Cloud Business Intelligence Technology with a focus on healthcare organizations in Saudi Arabia. To bring this matter into perspective, this study primarily considers the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and the Human Organization-Technology (HOT) fit model. A survey was hypothetically designed based on literature review and was carried out online. Quantitative data obtained was processed from descriptive and one-way frequency statistics to inferential and regression analysis. Data were analysed to establish factors that influence the decision to adopt Cloud Business intelligence technology in the healthcare sector. The implication of the identified factors was measured, and all assumptions were tested. 66.70% of participants in healthcare organization backed the intention to adopt cloud business intelligence system. 99.4% of these participants considered security concerns and privacy risk have been the most significant factors in the adoption of cloud Business Intelligence (CBI) system. Through regression analysis hypothesis testing point that usefulness, service quality, relative advantage, IT infrastructure preparedness, organization structure; vendor support, perceived technical competence, government support, and top management support positively and significantly influence the adoption of (CBI) system. The paper presents quantitative phase that is a part of an on-going project. The project will be based on the consequences learned from this study.

Keywords: cloud computing, business intelligence, HOT-fit model, TOE, healthcare and innovation adoption

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Authors: Munenari Inoguchi, Keiko Tamura

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In Japan, we were suffered by earthquake, typhoon, and flood disaster in 2019. Especially, 38 of 47 prefectures were affected by typhoon #1919 occurred in October 2019. By this disaster, 99 people were dead, three people were missing, and 484 people were injured as human damage. Furthermore, 3,081 buildings were totally collapsed, 24,998 buildings were half-collapsed. Once disaster occurs, local responders have to inspect damage level of each building by themselves in order to certificate building damage for survivors for starting their life reconstruction process. At that disaster, the total number to be inspected was so high. Based on this situation, Cabinet Office of Japan approved the way to detect building damage level efficiently, that is collectively detection. However, they proposed a just guideline, and local responders had to establish the concrete and infallible method by themselves. Against this issue, we decided to establish the effective and efficient methodology to detect building damage level collectively with flood depth. Besides, we thought that the flood depth was relied on the land height, and we decided to utilize GIS (Geographic Information System) for analyzing the elevation spatially. We focused on the analyzing tool of spatial interpolation, which is utilized to survey the ground water level usually. In establishing the methodology, we considered 4 key-points: 1) how to satisfy the condition defined in the guideline approved by Cabinet Office for detecting building damage level, 2) how to satisfy survivors for the result of building damage level, 3) how to keep equitability and fairness because the detection of building damage level was executed by public institution, 4) how to reduce cost of time and human-resource because they do not have enough time and human-resource for disaster response. Then, we proposed a methodology for detecting building damage level collectively with flood depth utilizing GIS with five steps. First is to obtain the boundary of flooded area. Second is to collect the actual flood depth as sampling over flooded area. Third is to execute spatial analysis of interpolation with sampled flood depth to detect two-dimensional flood depth extent. Fourth is to divide to blocks by four categories of flood depth (non-flooded, over the floor to 100 cm, 100 cm to 180 cm and over 180 cm) following lines of roads for getting satisfaction from survivors. Fifth is to put flood depth level to each building. In Koriyama city of Fukushima prefecture, we proposed the methodology of collectively detection for building damage level as described above, and local responders decided to adopt our methodology at typhoon #1919 in 2019. Then, we and local responders detect building damage level collectively to over 1,000 buildings. We have received good feedback that the methodology was so simple, and it reduced cost of time and human-resources.

Keywords: building damage inspection, flood, geographic information system, spatial interpolation

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Authors: Afshin Azari, Farzad Peiravian, Nazila Yousefi

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Introduction: Community pharmacies have been always played an important role in public health. Therefore, having a decent service provided by these pharmacies is of paramount importance for the healthcare system. The issue of pharmacy ownership and its possible impact on the quality of services and amount of violations has been argued for many years, and there are different opinions around this debate. Since, so far, no scientific research has been performed to investigate this issue in Iran, this study aimed to examine the differences between these two types of pharmacies ownership in terms of violations and service quality. Method: This study investigates the impact of two different kinds of pharmacy ownership (pharmacists and non-pharmacist’s ownership) on the pharmacies’ amount of violations and services quality. Pharmacies’ amount of violations was examined using “pharmacy inspection reports” between September 2018 and September 2019, in their distinguishable categories: minor, major and critical violations. Then, service quality was examined using a questionnaire from the perspective of pharmacy customers. Results: Considering violations, there was no evidence to prove a significant relationship between critical violations and major violations with the type of pharmacy ownership. However, in minor violations, the average of violations was higher in pharmacies owned by pharmacists in comparison to their non-pharmacist owned counterparts. Regarding service quality, the results showed that there is no significant relationship between the quality of service and the type of pharmacy ownership. Discussion and Conclusion: In this study, no significant relationship was found between the amount of violations and the type of pharmacy ownership. This could indicate that the pharmacy ownership would not influence the rate of violations. Considering that more inspections have been carried out in non-pharmacist owned pharmacies, it can be concluded that these pharmacies are more under control, and in fact, this monitoring has reduced violations in these pharmacies. The quality of services in the two types of pharmacies were not significantly different from each other, and this shows that non-pharmacist-owned pharmacies also try to maintain the desired level of service in competition with their competitors.

Keywords: pharmacy ownership, quality of service, violation, community pharmacy

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Authors: Oludare Isaac Abiodun, Esther Omolara Abiodun

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The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that cyberterrorism is existing and poses a threat to computer security and national security. Nowadays, people have become excitedly dependent upon computers, phones, the Internet, and the Internet of things systems to share information, communicate, conduct a search, etc. However, these network systems are at risk from a different source that is known and unknown. These network systems risk being caused by some malicious individuals, groups, organizations, or governments, they take advantage of vulnerabilities in the computer system to hawk sensitive information from people, organizations, or governments. In doing so, they are engaging themselves in computer threats, crime, and terrorism, thereby making the use of computers insecure for others. The threat of cyberterrorism is of various forms and ranges from one country to another country. These threats include disrupting communications and information, stealing data, destroying data, leaking, and breaching data, interfering with messages and networks, and in some cases, demanding financial rewards for stolen data. Hence, this study identifies many ways that cyberterrorists utilize the Internet as a tool to advance their malicious mission, which negatively affects computer security and safety. One could identify causes for disparate anomaly behaviors and the theoretical, ideological, and current forms of the likelihood of cyberterrorism. Therefore, for a countermeasure, this paper proposes the use of previous and current computer security models as found in the literature to help in countering cyberterrorism

Keywords: cyberterrorism, computer security, information, internet, terrorism, threat, digital forensic solution

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Authors: Pranee Suecharoen, Ratchadaporn Soontornpas, Jaturat Kanpittaya

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Background: Contrast media has an important role for disease diagnosis through detection of pathologies. Contrast media can, however, cause adverse reactions after administration of its agents. Although non-ionic contrast media are commonly used, the incidence of adverse events is relatively low. The most common reactions found (10.5%) were mild and manageable and/or preventable. Pharmacists can play an important role in evaluating adverse reactions, including awareness of the specific preparation and the type of adverse reaction. As most common types of adverse reactions are idiosyncratic or pseudo-allergic reactions, common standards need to be established to prevent and control adverse reactions promptly and effectively. Objective: To measure the effect of using tools for symptom evaluation in order to reduce the severity, or prevent the occurrence, of adverse reactions from contrast media. Methods: Retrospective review descriptive research with data collected on adverse reactions assessment and Naranjo’s algorithm between June 2015 and May 2016. Results: 158 patients (10.53%) had adverse reactions. Of the 1,500 participants with an adverse event evaluation, 137 (9.13%) had a mild adverse reaction, including hives, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache. These types of symptoms can be treated (i.e., with antihistamines, anti-emetics) and the patient recovers completely within one day. The group with moderate adverse reactions, numbering 18 cases (1.2%), had hypertension or hypotension, and shortness of breath. Severe adverse reactions numbered 3 cases (0.2%) and included swelling of the larynx, cardiac arrest, and loss of consciousness, requiring immediate treatment. No other complications under close medical supervision were recorded (i.e., corticosteroids use, epinephrine, dopamine, atropine, or life-saving devices). Using the guideline, therapies are divided into general and specific and are performed according to the severity, risk factors and ingestion of contrast media agents. Patients who have high-risk factors were screened and treated (i.e., prophylactic premedication) for prevention of severe adverse reactions, especially those with renal failure. Thus, awareness for the need for prescreening of different risk factors is necessary for early recognition and prompt treatment. Conclusion: Studying adverse reactions can be used to develop a model for reducing the level of severity and setting a guideline for a standardized, multidisciplinary approach to adverse reactions.

Keywords: role of pharmacist, management of adverse reactions, guideline for contrast media, non-ionic contrast media

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Authors: Shreyas Kumar, Mili Shangari

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Integrating artificial intelligence (AI) in the cyber insurance sector represents a significant advancement, offering the potential to revolutionize risk assessment, fraud detection, and claims processing. However, this integration introduces a range of regulatory and economic challenges that must be addressed to ensure responsible and effective deployment of AI technologies. This paper examines the multifaceted regulatory landscape governing AI in cyber insurance and explores the economic implications of compliance, innovation, and market dynamics. AI's capabilities in processing vast amounts of data and identifying patterns make it an invaluable tool for insurers in managing cyber risks. Yet, the application of AI in this domain is subject to stringent regulatory scrutiny aimed at safeguarding data privacy, ensuring algorithmic transparency, and preventing biases. Regulatory bodies, such as the European Union with its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), mandate strict compliance requirements that can significantly impact the deployment of AI systems. These regulations necessitate robust data protection measures, ethical AI practices, and clear accountability frameworks, all of which entail substantial compliance costs for insurers. The economic implications of these regulatory requirements are profound. Insurers must invest heavily in upgrading their IT infrastructure, implementing robust data governance frameworks, and training personnel to handle AI systems ethically and effectively. These investments, while essential for regulatory compliance, can strain financial resources, particularly for smaller insurers, potentially leading to market consolidation. Furthermore, the cost of regulatory compliance can translate into higher premiums for policyholders, affecting the overall affordability and accessibility of cyber insurance. Despite these challenges, the potential economic benefits of AI integration in cyber insurance are significant. AI-enhanced risk assessment models can provide more accurate pricing, reduce the incidence of fraudulent claims, and expedite claims processing, leading to overall cost savings and increased efficiency. These efficiencies can improve the competitiveness of insurers and drive innovation in product offerings. However, balancing these benefits with regulatory compliance is crucial to avoid legal penalties and reputational damage. The paper also explores the potential risks associated with AI integration, such as algorithmic biases that could lead to unfair discrimination in policy underwriting and claims adjudication. Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to address these issues, promoting fairness and transparency in AI applications. Policymakers play a critical role in creating a balanced regulatory environment that fosters innovation while protecting consumer rights and ensuring market stability. In conclusion, the integration of AI in cyber insurance presents both regulatory and economic challenges that require a coordinated approach involving regulators, insurers, and other stakeholders. By navigating these challenges effectively, the industry can harness the transformative potential of AI, driving advancements in risk management and enhancing the resilience of the cyber insurance market. This paper provides insights and recommendations for policymakers and industry leaders to achieve a balanced and sustainable integration of AI technologies in cyber insurance.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), cyber insurance, regulatory compliance, economic impact, risk assessment, fraud detection, cyber liability insurance, risk management, ransomware

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Authors: Esshili Awatef, Manitz Marie-Pierre, Eßlinger Manuela, Gerhardt Alexandra, Plümper Jennifer, Wachholz Simone, Friebe Astrid, Juckel Georg

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Maternal immune activation (MIA) resulting from maternal viral infection during pregnancy is a known risk factor for schizophrenia. The neural mechanisms by which maternal infections increase the risk for schizophrenia remain unknown, although the prevailing hypothesis argues that an activation of the maternal immune system induces changes in the maternal-fetal environment that might interact with fetal brain development. It may lead to an activation of fetal microglia inducing long-lasting functional changes of these cells. Based on post-mortem analysis showing an increased number of activated microglial cells in patients with schizophrenia, it can be hypothesized that these cells contribute to disease pathogenesis and may actively be involved in gray matter loss observed in such patients. In the present study, we hypothesize that prenatal treatment with the inflammatory agent Poly(I:C) during embryogenesis at contributes to microglial activation in the offspring, which may, therefore, represent a contributing factor to the pathogenesis of schizophrenia and underlines the need for new pharmacological treatment options. Pregnant rats were treated with intraperitoneal injections a single dose of Poly(I:C) or saline on gestation day 17. Brains of control and Poly(I:C) offspring, were removed and into 20-μm-thick coronal sections were cut by using a Cryostat. Brain slices were fixed and immunostained with ba1 antibody. Subsequently, Iba1-immunoreactivity was detected using a secondary antibody, goat anti-rabbit. The sections were viewed and photographed under microscope. The immunohistochemical analysis revealed increases in microglia cell number in the prefrontal cortex, in offspring of poly(I:C) treated-rats as compared to the controls injected with NaCl. However, no significant differences were observed in microglia activation in the cerebellum among the groups. Prenatal immune challenge with Poly(I:C) was able to induce long-lasting changes in the offspring brains. This lead to a higher activation of microglia cells in the prefrontal cortex, a brain region critical for many higher brain functions, including working memory and cognitive flexibility. which might be implicated in possible changes in cortical neuropil architecture in schizophrenia. Further studies will be needed to clarify the association between microglial cells activation and schizophrenia-related behavioral alterations.

Keywords: Microglia, neuroinflammation, PolyI:C, schizophrenia

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Authors: Tochukwu Timothy Okoli, Devi Datt Tewari

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The high rate of Fintech adoption has not transmitted to greater financial inclusion and development in Africa. This problem is attributed to poor Fintech diversification and usefulness in the continent. This concept is referred to as the Fintech depth of penetration in this study. The study, therefore, assessed its determinants and growth process in a panel of three emergings, twenty-four frontiers and five fragile African economies disaggregated with dummies over the period 2004-2018 to allow for heterogeneity between groups. The System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique reveals that the average depth of Mobile banking and automated teller machine (ATM) is a dynamic heterogeneity process. Moreover, users' previous experiences/compatibility, trial-ability/income, and financial development were the major factors that raise its usefulness, whereas perceived risk, financial openness, and inflation rate significantly limit its usefulness. The growth rate of Mobile banking, ATM, and Internet banking in 2018 is, on average 41.82, 0.4, and 20.8 per cent respectively greater than its average rates in 2004. These greater averages after the 2009 financial crisis suggest that countries resort to Fintech as a risk-mitigating tool. This study, therefore, recommends greater Fintech diversification through improved literacy, institutional development, financial liberalization, and continuous innovation.

Keywords: depth of fintech, emerging Africa, financial technology, internet banking, mobile banking

Procedia PDF Downloads 129