Search results for: time series prediction

Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

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In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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Authors: Rui Wu

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In the volatile modern manufacturing environment, new orders randomly occur at any time, while the pre-emptive methods are infeasible. This leads to a real-time scheduling method that can produce a reasonably good schedule quickly. The dynamic Flexible Job Shop problem is an NP-hard scheduling problem that hybrid the dynamic Job Shop problem with the Parallel Machine problem. A Flexible Job Shop contains different work centres. Each work centre contains parallel machines that can process certain operations. Many algorithms, such as genetic algorithms or simulated annealing, have been proposed to solve the static Flexible Job Shop problems. However, the time efficiency of these methods is low, and these methods are not feasible in a dynamic scheduling problem. Therefore, a dynamic rule selection scheduling system based on the reinforcement learning method is proposed in this research, in which the dynamic Flexible Job Shop problem is divided into several parallel machine problems to decrease the complexity of the dynamic Flexible Job Shop problem. Firstly, the features of jobs, machines, work centres, and flexible job shops are selected to describe the status of the dynamic Flexible Job Shop problem at each decision point in each work centre. Secondly, a framework of reinforcement learning algorithm using a double-layer deep Q-learning network is applied to select proper composite dispatching rules based on the status of each work centre. Then, based on the selected composite dispatching rule, an available operation is selected from the waiting buffer and assigned to an available machine in each work centre. Finally, the proposed algorithm will be compared with well-known dispatching rules on objectives of mean tardiness, mean flow time, mean waiting time, or mean percentage of waiting time in the real-time Flexible Job Shop problem. The result of the simulations proved that the proposed framework has reasonable performance and time efficiency.

Keywords: dynamic scheduling problem, flexible job shop, dispatching rules, deep reinforcement learning

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Authors: Nattawipa Pakasri

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58S (60SiO2-36CaO-4P2O5), three-dimensionally ordered macroporous bioactive glasses (3DOM-BGs) were synthesized by the sol-gel method using dual templating methods. non-ionic surfactant Brij56 used as templates component produced mesoporous and the spherical PMMA colloidal crystals as one template component yielded either three-dimensionally ordered microporous products or shaped bioactive glass nanoparticles. The bioactive glass with aging step for 12 h at room temperature, no structure transformation occurred and the 3DOM structure was produced (Figure a) due to no shrinkage process between the aging step. After 48 h time of o 3DOM structure remained and, nanocube with ∼120 nm edge lengths and nanosphere particle with ∼50 nm was obtained (Figure c, d). PMMA packing templates have octahedral and tetrahedral holes to make 2 final shapes of 3DOM-BGs which is rounded and cubic, respectively. The ageing time change from 12h, 24h and 48h affected to the thickness of interconnecting macropores network. The wall thickness was gradually decrease after increase aging time.

Keywords: three-dimensionally ordered macroporous bioactive glasses, sol-gel method, PMMA, bioactive glass

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Authors: Fernanda M. Bastos, Teógenes A. da Silva

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Extrapolation chambers were designed to be used as primary standard dosimeter for measuring absorbed dose in a medium in beta radiation and low energy x-rays. The International Organization for Standardization established series of reference x-radiation for calibrating and determining the energy dependence of dosimeters that are to be reproduced in metrology laboratories. Standardization of the low energy x-ray beams with tube potential lower than 30 kV may be affected by the instrument used for dosimetry. In this work, parameters of a 23392 model PTW extrapolation chamber were determined aiming its use in low energy x-ray beams as a reference instrument.

Keywords: extrapolation chamber, low energy x-rays, x-ray dosimetry, X-ray metrology

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Authors: Ganbat Danaa, Chuluundorj Puntsag

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The steel structures of the Oyu-Tolgoi mining Concentrator plant are corroded during operation, which raises doubts about the continued use of some important structures of the plant, which is one of the problems facing the plant's regular operation. As a part of the main operation of the plant, the bottom part of the pressure vessel, which plays an important role in the reliable operation of the concentrate filter-drying unit, was heavily corroded, so it was necessary to study by engineering calculations, modeling, and simulation using modern advanced engineering programs and methods. The purpose of this research is to investigate whether the corroded part of the pressure vessel can be used normally in the future using advanced engineering software and to predetermine the remaining life of the time of the pressure vessel based on engineering calculations. When the thickness of the bottom part of the pressure vessel was thinned by 0.5mm due to corrosion detected by non-destructive testing, finite element analysis using ANSYS WorkBench software was used to determine the mechanical stress, strain and safety factor in the wall and bottom of the pressure vessel operating under 2.2 MPa working pressure, made conclusions on whether it can be used in the future. According to the recommendations, by using sand-blast cleaning and anti-corrosion paint, the normal, continuous and reliable operation of the Concentrator plant can be ensured, such as ordering new pressure vessels and reducing the installation period. By completing this research work, it will be used as a benchmark for assessing the corrosion condition of steel parts of pressure vessels and other metallic and non-metallic structures operating under severe conditions of corrosion, static and dynamic loads, and other deformed steels to make analysis of the structures and make it possible to evaluate and control the integrity and reliable operation of the structures.

Keywords: corrosion, non-destructive testing, finite element analysis, safety factor, structural reliability

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Authors: Renato Roda

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With the emergence of the so-called 'Knowledge Society', the implementation of policies to attract, grow and retain talents, in an academic context as well, has become critical –both in the perspective of didactics and research and as far as administration and institutional management are concerned. At the same time, the contemporary philanthropic entities/organizations, which are evolving from traditional types of social support towards new styles of aid, envisaged to go beyond mere monetary donations, face the challenge of brand-new forms of complexity in supporting such specific dynamics of the global human capital market. In this sense, it becomes unavoidable for the philanthropic foundation, while carrying out their daily charitable tasks, to resort to innovative ways to facilitate the acquisition and the promotion of talents by academic and research institutions. In order to deepen such a specific perspective, this paper features the case of Turin, former 'factory city' of Italy’s North West, headquarters -and main reference territory- of Italy’s largest and richest private formerly bank-based philanthropic foundation, the Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo. While it was assessed and classified as 'medium' in the city Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) of 2020, Turin has nevertheless acquired over the past months status of impact laboratory for a whole series of innovation strategies in the competition for the acquisition of excellence human capital. Leading actors of this new city vision are the foundations with their specifically adjusted financial engagement and a consistent role of stimulus towards innovation for research and education institutions.

Keywords: human capital, post-Fordism, private foundation, war on talents

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Authors: Ananchai Ukaew, Choopong Chauypen

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Design concepts of real-time embedded system can be realized initially by introducing novel design approaches. In this literature, model based design approach and in-the-loop testing were employed early in the conceptual and preliminary phase to formulate design requirements and perform quick real-time verification. The design and analysis methodology includes simulation analysis, model based testing, and in-the-loop testing. The design of conceptual drive-by-wire, or DBW, algorithm for electronic control unit, or ECU, was presented to demonstrate the conceptual design process, analysis, and functionality evaluation. The concepts of DBW ECU function can be implemented in the vehicle system to improve electric vehicle, or EV, conversion drivability. However, within a new development process, conceptual ECU functions and parameters are needed to be evaluated. As a result, the testing system was employed to support conceptual DBW ECU functions evaluation. For the current setup, the system components were consisted of actual DBW ECU hardware, electric vehicle models, and control area network or CAN protocol. The vehicle models and CAN bus interface were both implemented as real-time applications where ECU and CAN protocol functionality were verified according to the design requirements. The proposed system could potentially benefit in performing rapid real-time analysis of design parameters for conceptual system or software algorithm development.

Keywords: drive-by-wire ECU, in-the-loop testing, model-based design, real-time embedded system

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Authors: Seung Cho Yang, Jae Sung Lee, Se Hee Park

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This study suggests the analysis method to predict the damages of tunnel concrete caused by fires. The result obtained from the analyses of concrete temperatures at a fire in a tunnel using ABAQUS was compared with the test result. After the reliability of the analysis method was verified, the temperatures of a tunnel at a real fire and those of concrete during the fire were estimated to predict fire damages. The temperatures inside the tunnel were estimated by FDS, a CFD model. It was deduced that the fire performance of tunnel lining and the fire damages of the structure at an actual fire could be estimated by the analysis method.

Keywords: fire resistance, heat transfer, numerical analysis, tunnel fire

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Authors: Geeta Partap, Nitika Chugh

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The present paper deals with the flexural vibrations of homogeneous, isotropic, generalized micropolar microstretch thermoelastic thin Euler-Bernoulli beam resonators, due to Exponential time varying load. Both the axial ends of the beam are assumed to be at simply supported conditions. The governing equations have been solved analytically by using Laplace transforms technique twice with respect to time and space variables respectively. The inversion of Laplace transform in time domain has been performed by using the calculus of residues to obtain deflection.The analytical results have been numerically analyzed with the help of MATLAB software for magnesium like material. The graphical representations and interpretations have been discussed for Deflection of beam under Simply Supported boundary condition and for distinct considered values of time and space as well. The obtained results are easy to implement for engineering analysis and designs of resonators (sensors), modulators, actuators.

Keywords: microstretch, deflection, exponential load, Laplace transforms, residue theorem, simply supported

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Authors: Bright Kwakye-Awuah, Elizabeth Von-Kiti, Isaac Nkrumah, Baah Sefa-Ntiri, Craig D. Williams

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Bauxite and kaolin from Ghana Bauxite Company mine site were used to synthesize zeolites. Bauxite served as the alumina source and kaolin the silica source. Synthesis variations include variation of aging time at constant crystallization time and variation of crystallization times at constant aging time. Characterization techniques such as X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive x-ray analysis (EDX) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) were employed in the characterization of the raw samples as well as the synthesized samples. The results obtained showed that the transformations that occurred and the phase of the resulting products were coordinated by the aging time, crystallization time, alkaline concentration and Si/Al ratio of the system. Zeolites A, X, Y, analcime, Sodalite, and ZK-14 were some of the phases achieved. Zeolite LTA was achieved with short crystallization times of 3, 5, 18 and 24 hours and a maximum aging of 24 hours. Zeolite LSX was synthesized with 24 hr aging followed with 24 hr hydrothermal treatment whilst zeolite Y crystallized after 48 hr of aging and 24 hr crystallization. Prolonged crystallization time produced a mixed phased product. Prolonged aging times, on the other hand, did not yield any zeolite as the sample was amorphous. Increasing the alkaline content of the reaction mixture above 5M introduced sodalite phase in the final product. The properties of the final products were comparable to zeolites synthesized from pure chemical reagents.

Keywords: bauxite, kaolin, aging, crystallization, zeolites

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Authors: Magy Atef Awad Attia

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The objective of this study was to study the effect of social stories on social interaction of students with autism. The sample was at level 5 student with autism, Another University Demonstration School student, who was diagnosed by the Physician as High Functioning Autism since he was able to read, write, calculate and was studying in inclusive classroom. However, he still had disability in social interaction to participate in social activity group and communication. He could not learn how to develop friendship or create relationship. He had inappropriate behavior in social context. He did not understand complex social situations. In addition, he did seemed to not know time and place. He was not able to understand feeling of oneself as well as the others. Consequently, he could not express his emotion appropriately. He did not understand or express his non-verbal language for communicating with friends. He lacked of common interest or emotion with nearby persons. He greeted inappropriately or was not interested in greeting. In addition, he did not have eye contact. He used inadequate language etc. He was elected by Purposive Sampling. His parents were willing to allow them to participate in this study. The research instruments were the lesson plan of social stories, and the picture book of social stories. The instruments used for data collection, were the social interaction evaluation of autistic students. This research was Experimental Research as One Group Pre-test, Post-test Design. For the Pre-test, the experiment was conducted by social stories. Then, the Post-test was implemented. The statistic used for data analysis. The research results were shown by scale. The results revealed that the autistic students taught by social stories indicated better social reaction after being taught by social stories.

Keywords: autism, autistic behavior, stability, harsh environments, techniques, thermal, properties, materials, applications, brittleness, fragility, disadvantages, bank, branches, profitability, setting prediction, effective target, measurement, evaluation, performance, commercial, business, sustainability, financial, system.

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Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing volume of traffic, lane changing plays a crucial role in traffic flow. Lane changing in traffic depends on several factors including road geometrical design, speed, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, etc. A great deal of research has been carried out regarding these fields. Despite of the other significant factors, the drivers’ behavioral characteristics of lane changing has been emphasized in this paper. This paper has predicted the effective equation based on personal characteristics of lane changing by regression models.

Keywords: effective equation, lane changing, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, regression models

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Authors: Berkas Khaoula

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Based on selection characteristics, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) extruded pipes are among the most economical and durable materials as well-designed solutions for water and gas transmission systems. The main reasons for such a choice are the high quality-performance ratio and the long-term service durability under aggressive conditions. Due to inevitable interactions with soils of different chemical compositions and transported fluids, aggressiveness becomes a key factor in studying resilient strength and life prediction limits. This phenomenon is known as environmental stress cracking resistance (ESCR). In this work, the effect of 3 acidic environments (5% acetic, 20% hydrochloric and 20% sulfuric) on HDPE-100 samples (~10x11x24 mm3). The results presented in the form (Δm/m0, %) as a function of √t indicate that the absorption, in the case of strong acids (HCl and H2SO4), evolves towards negative values involving material losses such as antioxidants and some additives. On the other hand, acetic acid and deionized water (DW) give a form of linear Fickean (LF) and B types, respectively. In general, the acids cause a slow but irreversible alteration of the chemical structure, composition and physical integrity of the polymer. The DW absorption is not significant (~0.02%) for an immersion duration of 69 days. Such results are well accepted in actual applications, while changes caused by acidic environments are serious and must be subjected to particular monitoring of the OIT factor (Oxidation Induction Time). After 55 days of aging, the H2SO4 and HCl media showed particular values with a loss of % mass in the interval [0.025-0.038] associated with irreversible chemical reactions as well as physical degradations. This state is usually explained by hydrolysis of the polymer, causing the loss of functions and causing chain scissions. These results are useful for designing and estimating the lifetime of the tube in service and in contact with adverse environments.

Keywords: HDPE, environmental stress cracking, absorption, acid media, chemical aging

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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Authors: F. Sabri, J. Jamali

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In this article, the wrinkling failure of orthotropic composite membranes due to in-plane shear deformation is investigated using nonlinear finite element analyses. A nonlinear post-buckling analysis is performed to show the evolution of shear-induced wrinkles. The method of investigation is based on the post-buckling finite element analysis adopted from commercial FEM code; ANSYS. The resulting wrinkling patterns, their amplitude and their wavelengths under the prescribed loads and boundary conditions were confirmed by experimental results. Our study reveals that wrinkles develop when both the magnitudes and coverage of the minimum principal stresses in the laminated composite laminates are sufficiently large to trigger wrinkling.

Keywords: composite, FEM, membrane, wrinkling

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Authors: Elsie L. Echeverri-Carroll

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Entrepreneurial ecosystems have become an important concept to explain the birth and sustainability of technology-based entrepreneurship within regions. However, as a theoretical concept, the temporal evolution of entrepreneurship systems remain underdeveloped, making it difficult to understand their dynamic contributions to entrepreneurs. This paper argues that successful technology-based ecosystems go over three cumulative spawning stages: corporate spawning, entrepreneurial spawning, and community spawning. The importance of corporate incubation in vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystems is well documented in the entrepreneurial literature. Similarly, entrepreneurial spawning processes for venture capital-backed startups are well documented in the financial literature. In contrast, there is little understanding of both the third stage of entrepreneurial spawning (when a community of entrepreneurs become a source of firm spawning) and the temporal sequence in which spawning effects occur in a region. We test this three-stage model of entrepreneurial spawning using data from two large databases on firm births—the Secretary of State (160,000 observations) and the National Establishment Time Series (NEST with 150,000 observations)—and information collected from 60 1½-hour interviews with startup founders and representatives of key entrepreneurial organizations. This temporal model is illustrated with case study of Austin, Texas ranked by the Kauffman Foundation as the number one entrepreneurial city in the United States in 2015 and 2016. The 1½-year study founded by the Kauffman Foundation demonstrates the importance of taken into consideration the temporal contributions of both large and entrepreneurial firms in understanding the factors that contribute to the birth and growth of technology-based entrepreneurial regions. More important, these learnings could offer an important road map for regions that pursue to advance their entrepreneurial ecosystems.

Keywords: entrepreneurial ecosystems, entrepreneurial industrial clusters, high-technology, temporal changes

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Authors: Vitus Onyebuchim Onyemailu, Olive Obianuju Okalibe

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The study tried to examine relationship between exchange rate variations on the balance of payments in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. Using time series on econometric measures such as Granger causality and ordinary least square (OLS), the study found that exchange rate movements especially the depreciation of naira has not contributed significantly on the balance of payments under the year of the study. The granger result conform the Marshall-Lerner short and long run prepositions that exchange rate devaluation enhances balance of payments. On disaggregation exchange rate granger causes current and capital account balances give the Nigeria data from 1970 to 2012. Overall in the long run OLS regression analysis, exchange rate on semi log functional form, exchange rate variation did not record significant effect on balance of payment equation. This height was also maintained in the current or trade balance which does not match the Marshall-Lerner. The capital account balance in reverse reported a significant impact of exchange rate variability on the capital account balance. Finally, on exchange rate determination equation, where many fundamentals were considered including lagged of exchange rate. Thus, the lagged of exchange rate recorded a positive and significant influence on the present exchange rate. This means that players in the financial markets usually out plays authority’s policy’s stances through their speculative tendencies. The work therefore, recommend that effort should be made by the authorities to providing enabling environment for production of goods and services to triumph in order to take advantages of steady devaluation of its currency. This is done by providing infrastructure, provision of science and technology. Thus, when this is done Nigeria would be able to have competitive power against the rest of the world.

Keywords: exchange rate variation, balance of payments, current account, capital account, Marshall-Lerner hypothesis

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Authors: V. Jagadish, Mathiyalagan V.

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Prediction of Door Touch temperature of a Cooking Oven using CFD Simulation. Self-Clean cycle is carried out in Cooking ovens to convert food spilling into ashes which makes cleaning easy. During this cycle cavity of oven is exposed to high temperature around 460 C. At this operating point the user may prone to touch the Door surfaces, Side Shield, Control Panel. To prevent heat experienced by user, cooling system is built in oven. The most effective cooling system is developed with existing design constraints through CFD Simulations. Cross Flow fan is used for Cooling system due to its cost effectiveness and it can give more air flow with low pressure drop.

Keywords: CFD, MRF, RBM, RANS, new product development, simulation, thermal analysis

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Authors: Wildan Maulana Wildan, Siti Annisa Rahmayani Icha

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Nowadays advances in information technology are needed by all the inhabitants of the earth for the sake of ease all their work, but it is worth to introduced the technological advances in the world of children. Before the technology is growing rapidly, children busy with various of traditional games and have high socialization. Moreover, after it presence, almost all of children spend more their time for playing gadget, It can affect the education of children and will change the character and personality children. However, children also can not be separated with the technology. Because the technology insight knowledge of children will be more extensive. Because the world can not be separated with advances in technology as well as with children, there should be developed a smartphone operating system that is child-friendly. The operating system is able to filter contents that do not deserve children, even in this system there is a reminder of a time study, prayer time and play time for children and there are interactive contents that will help the development of education and children's character. Children need technology, and there are some ways to introduce it to children. We must look at the characteristics of children in different environments. Thus advances in technology can be beneficial to the world children and their parents, and educators do not have to worry about advances in technology. We should be able to take advantage of advances in technology best possible.

Keywords: information technology, smartphone operating system, education, character

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Authors: Danlei Yang, Luofeng Huang

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The integration of digital twin technology with renewable energy systems offers an innovative approach to predicting and optimising performance throughout the entire lifecycle. A digital twin is a continuously updated virtual replica of a real-world entity, synchronised with data from its physical counterpart and environment. Many digital twin companies today claim to have mature digital twin products, but their focus is primarily on equipment visualisation. However, the core of a digital twin should be its model, which can mirror, shadow, and thread with the real-world entity, which is still underdeveloped. For a floating solar energy system, a digital twin model can be defined in three aspects: (a) the physical floating solar energy system along with environmental factors such as solar irradiance and wave dynamics, (b) a digital model powered by artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, and (c) the integration of real system data with the AI-driven model and a user interface. The experimental setup for the floating solar energy system, is designed to replicate real-ocean conditions of floating solar installations within a controlled laboratory environment. The system consists of a water tank that simulates an aquatic surface, where a floating catamaran structure supports a solar panel. The solar simulator is set up in three positions: one directly above and two inclined at a 45° angle in front and behind the solar panel. This arrangement allows the simulation of different sun angles, such as sunrise, midday, and sunset. The solar simulator is positioned 400 mm away from the solar panel to maintain consistent solar irradiance on its surface. Stability for the floating structure is achieved through ropes attached to anchors at the bottom of the tank, which simulates the mooring systems used in real-world floating solar applications. The floating solar energy system's sensor setup includes various devices to monitor environmental and operational parameters. An irradiance sensor measures solar irradiance on the photovoltaic (PV) panel. Temperature sensors monitor ambient air and water temperatures, as well as the PV panel temperature. Wave gauges measure wave height, while load cells capture mooring force. Inclinometers and ultrasonic sensors record heave and pitch amplitudes of the floating system’s motions. An electric load measures the voltage and current output from the solar panel. All sensors collect data simultaneously. Artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms are central to developing the digital model, which processes historical and real-time data, identifies patterns, and predicts the system’s performance in real time. The data collected from various sensors are partly used to train the digital model, with the remaining data reserved for validation and testing. The digital twin model combines the experimental setup with the ANN model, enabling monitoring, analysis, and prediction of the floating solar energy system's operation. The digital model mirrors the functionality of the physical setup, running in sync with the experiment to provide real-time insights and predictions. It provides useful industrial benefits, such as informing maintenance plans as well as design and control strategies for optimal energy efficiency. In long term, this digital twin will help improve overall solar energy yield whilst minimising the operational costs and risks.

Keywords: digital twin, floating solar energy system, experiment setup, artificial intelligence

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Authors: J. Alvarez Muñoz, Dominguez Lepe J. A.

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A suitable mixing time of the concrete, allows form a homogeneous mass, quality that leads to greater compressive strength and durability. Although there are recommendations as ASTM C94 standard these mention the time and the number of minimum and maximum speed for a ready-mix concrete of good quality, the specific behavior that would have a concrete mixed on site to variability of the mixing time is unknown. In this study was evaluated the behavior a design of mixture structural of f´c=250 kg/cm2, elaborate on site with limestone aggregate in warm sub-humid climate, subjected to different mixing times. Based on the recommendation for ready-mixed concrete ASTM C94, different times were set at 70, 90, 100, 110, 120, 140 total revolutions. A field study in which 14 works were observed where structural concrete made on site was used, allowed to set at 24 the number of revolutions to the reference mixture. For the production of concrete was used a hand feed concrete mixer with drum speed 28 RPM, the ratio w/c was 0.36 corrected, with a slump of 5-6 cm, for all mixtures. The compressive strength tests were performed at 3, 7, 14, and 28 days. The most outstanding results show increases in resistance in the mixtures of 24 to 70 revolutions between 8 and 17 percent and 70 to 90 revolutions of 3 to 8 percent. Increasing the number of revolutions at 110, 120 and 140, there was a reduction of the compressive strength of 0.5 to 8 percent. Regarding mixtures consistencies, they had a slump of 5 cm to 24, 70 and 90 rpm and less than 5 cm from 100 revolutions. Clearly, those made with more than 100 revolutions mixtures not only decrease the compressive strength but also the workability.

Keywords: compressive strength, concrete, mixing time, workability

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Authors: Mohammad H. Taheri, David J. Brown, Nasser Sherkat

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Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.

Keywords: affective computing in education, affect detection, continuous performance test, engagement, flow, HCI, interaction, learning disabilities, machine learning, multimodal, multisensor, physiological sensors, student engagement

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Authors: Kishor T. Zingre, Seshadhri Srinivasan

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Energy consumption by the building sector is increasing at an alarming rate throughout the world and leading to more building-related CO₂ emissions into the environment. In buildings, the main contributors to energy consumption are heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, lighting, and electrical appliances. It is hypothesised that the energy efficiency in buildings can be achieved by implementing sustainable technologies such as i) enhancing the thermal resistance of fabric materials for reducing heat gain (in hotter climates) and heat loss (in colder climates), ii) enhancing daylight and lighting system, iii) HVAC system and iv) occupant localization. Energy performance of various sustainable technologies is highly dependent on climatic conditions. This paper investigated the use of machine learning techniques for accurate prediction of air-conditioning energy in seasonal climates. The data required to train the machine learning techniques is obtained using the computational simulations performed on a 3-story commercial building using EnergyPlus program plugged-in with OpenStudio and Google SketchUp. The EnergyPlus model was calibrated against experimental measurements of surface temperatures and heat flux prior to employing for the simulations. It has been observed from the simulations that the performance of sustainable fabric materials (for walls, roof, and windows) such as phase change materials, insulation, cool roof, etc. vary with the climate conditions. Various renewable technologies were also used for the building flat roofs in various climates to investigate the potential for electricity generation. It has been observed that the proposed technique overcomes the shortcomings of existing approaches, such as local linearization or over-simplifying assumptions. In addition, the proposed method can be used for real-time estimation of building air-conditioning energy.

Keywords: building energy efficiency, energyplus, machine learning techniques, seasonal climates

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Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

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In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Ju-Young Choi, Ki-Il Song, Kyoung-Yul Kim

Abstract:

During Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) tunnel excavation, backfill grout should be injected after the installation of segment lining to ensure the stability of the tunnel and to minimize ground deformation. If grouting is not sufficient to fill the gap between the segments and rock mass, hydraulic pressures occur in the void, which can negatively influence the stability of the tunnel. Recently the tendency to use TBM tunnelling method to replace the drill and blast(NATM) method is increasing. However, there are only a few studies of evaluation of backfill grout. This study evaluates the TBM tunnel backfill state using Impact-Echo(IE). 3-layers, segment-grout-rock mass, are simulated by FLAC 2D, FDM-based software. The signals obtained from numerical analysis and IE test are analyzed by Short-Time Fourier Transform(STFT) in time domain, frequency domain, and time-frequency domain. The result of this study can be used to evaluate the quality of backfill grouting in tail void.

Keywords: tunnel boring machine, backfill grout, impact-echo method, time-frequency domain analysis, finite difference method

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Hedieh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Predicting the cover type of forests is a challenge for natural resource managers. In this project, we aim to perform a comprehensive comparative study of two well-known classification methods, support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). The comparison is first performed among different types of each classifier, and then the best of each classifier will be compared by considering different evaluation metrics. The effect of boosting and bagging for decision trees is also explored. Furthermore, the effect of principal component analysis (PCA) and feature selection is also investigated. During the project, the forest cover-type dataset from the remote sensing and GIS program is used in all computations.

Keywords: classification methods, support vector machine, decision tree, forest cover-type dataset

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Reza Hedayati, Meysam Jahanbakhshi

Abstract:

Fracture Mechanics is used to predict debonding propagation in adhesive joint between aluminum and composite plates. Three types of loadings and two types of glass-epoxy composite sequences: [0/90]2s and [0/45/-45/90]s are considered for the composite plate and their results are compared. It was seen that generally the cases with stacking sequence of [0/45/-45/90]s have much shorter lives than cases with [0/90]2s. It was also seen that in cases with λ=0 the ends of the debonding front propagates forward more than its middle, while in cases with λ=0.5 or λ=1 it is vice versa. Moreover, regardless of value of λ, the difference between the debonding propagations of the ends and the middle of the debonding front is very close in cases λ=0.5 and λ=1. Another main conclusion was the non-dimensionalized debonding front profile is almost independent of sequence type or the applied load value.

Keywords: fatigue, debonding, Paris law, APDL, adhesive

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: E. Sener, O. Isik, E. Eroglu, U. Sahin

Abstract:

The main idea is to solve the system of Maxwell’s equations in accordance with the causality principle to get the energy quantities via Airy functions in a hollow rectangular waveguide. We used the evolutionary approach to electromagnetics that is an analytical time-domain method. The boundary-value problem for the system of Maxwell’s equations is reformulated in transverse and longitudinal coordinates. A self-adjoint operator is obtained and the complete set of Eigen vectors of the operator initiates an orthonormal basis of the solution space. Hence, the sought electromagnetic field can be presented in terms of this basis. Within the presentation, the scalar coefficients are governed by Klein-Gordon equation. Ultimately, in this study, time-domain waveguide problem is solved analytically in accordance with the causality principle. Moreover, the graphical results are visualized for the case when the energy and surplus of the energy for the time-domain waveguide modes are represented via airy functions.

Keywords: airy functions, Klein-Gordon Equation, Maxwell’s equations, Surplus of energy, wave boundary operators

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Srushti Patil, Preethi Baligar, Gopalkrishna Joshi, Gururaj N. Bhadri

Abstract:

In designing learning environments, the instructional strategies can be tailored to suit the learning style of an individual to ensure effective learning. In this study, the information shared on social media like Facebook is being used to predict learning style of a learner. Previous research studies have shown that Facebook data can be used to predict user personality. Users with a particular personality exhibit an inherent pattern in their digital footprint on Facebook. The proposed work aims to correlate the user's’ personality, predicted from Facebook data to the learning styles, predicted through questionnaires. For Millennial learners, Facebook has become a primary means for information sharing and interaction with peers. Thus, it can serve as a rich bed for research and direct the design of learning environments. The authors have conducted this study in an undergraduate freshman engineering course. Data from 320 freshmen Facebook users was collected. The same users also participated in the learning style and personality prediction survey. The Kolb’s Learning style questionnaires and Big 5 personality Inventory were adopted for the survey. The users have agreed to participate in this research and have signed individual consent forms. A specific page was created on Facebook to collect user data like personal details, status updates, comments, demographic characteristics and egocentric network parameters. This data was captured by an application created using Python program. The data captured from Facebook was subjected to text analysis process using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count dictionary. An analysis of the data collected from the questionnaires performed reveals individual student personality and learning style. The results obtained from analysis of Facebook, learning style and personality data were then fed into an automatic classifier that was trained by using the data mining techniques like Rule-based classifiers and Decision trees. This helps to predict the user personality and learning styles by analysing the common patterns. Rule-based classifiers applied for text analysis helps to categorize Facebook data into positive, negative and neutral. There were totally two models trained, one to predict the personality from Facebook data; another one to predict the learning styles from the personalities. The results show that the classifier model has high accuracy which makes the proposed method to be a reliable one for predicting the user personality and learning styles.

Keywords: educational data mining, Facebook, learning styles, personality traits

Procedia PDF Downloads 232