Search results for: Flow-3D numerical model

Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan

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This study analyzed a queueing system with blocking and no waiting line. The customers arrive according to a Poisson process and the service times follow exponential distribution. There are two non-identical servers in the system. The queue discipline is FCFS, and the customers select the servers on fastest server first (FSF) basis. The service times are exponentially distributed with parameters μ1 and μ2 at servers I and II, respectively. Besides, the catastrophes occur in a Poisson manner with rate γ in the system. When server I is busy or blocked, the customer who arrives in the system leaves the system without being served. Such customers are called lost customers. The probability of losing a customer was computed for the system. The explicit time dependent probabilities of system size are obtained and a numerical example is presented in order to show the managerial insights of the model. Finally, the probability that arriving customer finds system busy and average number of server busy in steady state are obtained numerically.

Keywords: queueing system, blocking, poisson process, heterogeneous servers, queue discipline FCFS, busy period

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Authors: Mohamed Amine El Hameur, Lyes Tarabet, Mahfoudh Cerdoun, Boubkr Zebiri, Giovanni Ferrara

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Due to the drastic environmental and energy regulations regarding the reduction of exhaust emissions and fuel consumption, added to the increasing demand for powerful performance, several automotive manufacturers are constantly obliged to redesign their existing products and/or develop novel powertrain techniques to respond to the aforementioned restrictions. In this aspect, an implemented approach is proposed in the present work to boost a 1.5 L, three-cylinder Diesel engine with a new turbocharger, based on 1D preliminary design codes, 3D design, and numerical assessment of a suitable radial turbine followed by an accurate selection procedure of an adequate centrifugal compressor. Furthermore, to investigate the effect of the turbine’s rotor position on the simulation convergence, stability, and calculation time; two combinations (rotor blade- volute) have been assessed. Consequently, significant results are obtained when comparing the original turbocharged engine and the new one at the engine’s full load and rated speed (@4500rpm) conditions. A maximum improvement in terms of brake-specific fuel consumption, thermal efficiency, total-to-static turbine efficiency, and total-to-total compressor efficiency equal 6.5% (corresponding to a decrease of 2.3 litre/hr in fuel consumption), 7%, 10.9%, and 19.9%, respectively.

Keywords: CFD investigation, engine boosting, turbine design, turbocharger, rotor blade positioning

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Authors: Anusha P. Wijesundara, Dulap I. Rathnayake, Nihal D. Perera

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Bathymetric information is fundamental importance to coastal and marine planning and management, nautical navigation, and scientific studies of marine environments. Satellite-derived bathymetry data provide detailed information in areas where conventional sounding data is lacking and conventional surveys are inaccessible. The two empirical approaches of log-linear bathymetric inversion model and non-linear bathymetric inversion model are applied for deriving bathymetry from high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery. This study compares these two approaches by means of geographical error analysis for the site Kankesanturai using WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method calibrated the parameters of non-linear inversion model and the multiple-linear regression model was applied to calibrate the log-linear inversion model. In order to calibrate both models, Single Beam Echo Sounding (SBES) data in this study area were used as reference points. Residuals were calculated as the difference between the derived depth values and the validation echo sounder bathymetry data and the geographical distribution of model residuals was mapped. The spatial autocorrelation was calculated by comparing the performance of the bathymetric models and the results showing the geographic errors for both models. A spatial error model was constructed from the initial bathymetry estimates and the estimates of autocorrelation. This spatial error model is used to generate more reliable estimates of bathymetry by quantifying autocorrelation of model error and incorporating this into an improved regression model. Log-linear model (R²=0.846) performs better than the non- linear model (R²=0.692). Finally, the spatial error models improved bathymetric estimates derived from linear and non-linear models up to R²=0.854 and R²=0.704 respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for all reference points in various depth ranges. The magnitude of the prediction error increases with depth for both the log-linear and the non-linear inversion models. Overall RMSE for log-linear and the non-linear inversion models were ±1.532 m and ±2.089 m, respectively.

Keywords: log-linear model, multi spectral, residuals, spatial error model

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Authors: Miriam Sosa-Díaz, Faustino Sánchez-Garduño

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In population dynamics the study of both, the abundance and the spatial distribution of the populations in a given habitat, is a fundamental issue a From ecological point of view, the determination of the factors influencing such changes involves important problems. In this paper a mathematical model to describe the temporal dynamic and the spatiotemporal dynamic of the interaction of three populations (pollinators, plants and herbivores) is presented. The study we present is carried out by stages: 1. The temporal dynamics and 2. The spatio-temporal dynamics. In turn, each of these stages is developed by considering three cases which correspond to the dynamics of each type of interaction. For instance, for stage 1, we consider three ODE nonlinear systems describing the pollinator-plant, plant-herbivore and plant-pollinator-herbivore, interactions, respectively. In each of these systems different types of dynamical behaviors are reported. Namely, transcritical and pitchfork bifurcations, existence of a limit cycle, existence of a heteroclinic orbit, etc. For the spatiotemporal dynamics of the two mathematical models a novel factor are introduced. This consists in considering that both, the pollinators and the herbivores, move towards those places of the habitat where the plant population density is high. In mathematical terms, this means that the diffusive part of the pollinators and herbivores equations depend on the plant population density. The analysis of this part is presented by considering pairs of populations, i. e., the pollinator-plant and plant-herbivore interactions and at the end the two mathematical model is presented, these models consist of two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. These are defined on a rectangular domain with the homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. We focused in the role played by the density dependent diffusion term into the coexistence of the populations. For both, the temporal and spatio-temporal dynamics, a several of numerical simulations are included.

Keywords: bifurcation, heteroclinic orbits, steady state, traveling wave

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Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

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A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

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Authors: Fernando L. P. Santos, Luiz G. Lyra, Helenice O. Florentino, Daniela R. Cantane

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Dengue is a febrile infectious disease caused by a virus of the family Flaviridae. It is transmitted by the bite of mosquitoes, usually of the genus Aedes aegypti. It occurs in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. This disease has been a major public health problem worldwide, especially in tropical countries such as Brazil, and its incidence has increased in recent years. Dengue is a subject of intense research. Efficient forms of mosquito control must be considered. In this work, the mono-objective optimal control problem was solved for analysing the dengue disease problem. Chemical and biological controls were considered in the mathematical aspect. This model describes the dynamics of mosquitoes in water and winged phases. We applied the genetic algorithms (GA) to obtain optimal strategies for the control of dengue. Numerical simulations have been performed to verify the versatility and the applicability of this algorithm. On the basis of the present results we may recommend the GA to solve optimal control problem with a large region of feasibility.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, dengue, Aedes aegypti, biological control, chemical control

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Authors: Adnan Alhathal Alanezi, Alanood A. Alsarayreh

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A direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) system was modeled using various angles for the membrane unit and a Reynolds number range of 500 to 2000 in this numerical analysis. The Navier-Stokes, energy, and species transport equations were used to create a two-dimensional model. The finite volume method was used to solve the governing equations (FVM). The results showed that as the Reynolds number grows up to 1500, the heat transfer coefficient increases for all membrane angles except the 60ᵒ inclination angle. Additionally, increasing the membrane angle to 90ᵒreduces the exit influence while increasing heat transfer. According to these data, a membrane with a 90o inclination angle (also known as a vertical membrane) and a Reynolds number of 2000 might have the smallest temperature differential. Similarly, decreasing the inclination angle of the membrane keeps the temperature difference constant between Reynolds numbers 1000 and 2000; however, between Reynolds numbers 500 and 1000, the temperature difference decreases dramatically.

Keywords: direct contact membrane distillation, membrane inclination angle, heat and mass transfer, reynolds number

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Authors: Mustapha Rilwan Adewale, Salau Ayobami Muhammed

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This study focuses on the heat transfer analysis of magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) squeezing flow between parallel disks, considering a viscous incompressible fluid. The upper disk exhibits both upward and downward motion, while the lower disk remains stationary but permeable. By employing similarity transformations, a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is derived to describe the flow behavior. To solve this system, a numerical approach, namely the Chebyshev collocation method, is utilized. The study investigates the influence of flow parameters and compares the obtained results with existing literature. The significance of this research lies in understanding the heat transfer characteristics of MHD squeezing flow, which has practical implications in various engineering and industrial applications. By employing the similarity transformations, the complex governing equations are simplified into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, facilitating the analysis of the flow behavior. To obtain numerical solutions for the system, the Chebyshev collocation method is implemented. This approach provides accurate approximations for the nonlinear equations, enabling efficient computations of the heat transfer properties. The obtained results are compared with existing literature, establishing the validity and consistency of the numerical approach. The study's major findings shed light on the influence of flow parameters on the heat transfer characteristics of the squeezing flow. The analysis reveals the impact of parameters such as magnetic field strength, disk motion amplitude, fluid viscosity on the heat transfer rate between the disks, the squeeze number(S), suction/injection parameter(A), Hartman number(M), Prandtl number(Pr), modified Eckert number(Ec), and the dimensionless length(δ). These findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the system's behavior and provide insights for optimizing heat transfer processes in similar configurations. In conclusion, this study presents a thorough heat transfer analysis of magneto-hydrodynamics squeezing flow between parallel disks. The numerical solutions obtained through the Chebyshev collocation method demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the approach. The investigation of flow parameters highlights their influence on heat transfer, contributing to the existing knowledge in this field. The agreement of the results with previous literature further strengthens the reliability of the findings. These outcomes have practical implications for engineering applications and pave the way for further research in related areas.

Keywords: squeezing flow, magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD), chebyshev collocation method(CCA), parallel manifolds, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Kolesnik Nadezda A.

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The research aims to elaborate inter-organizational network relationships management model to maximize value co-creation. We propose a network management framework that requires evaluation of network partners with respect to their position and role in network; and elaboration of appropriate relationship development strategy with partners in network. Empirical research and approval is based on the case study method, including structured in-depth interviews with the companies from b2b market.

Keywords: inter-organizational networks, value co-creation, model, B2B market

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Authors: Ju-Young Choi, Ki-Il Song, Kyoung-Yul Kim

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During Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) tunnel excavation, backfill grout should be injected after the installation of segment lining to ensure the stability of the tunnel and to minimize ground deformation. If grouting is not sufficient to fill the gap between the segments and rock mass, hydraulic pressures occur in the void, which can negatively influence the stability of the tunnel. Recently the tendency to use TBM tunnelling method to replace the drill and blast(NATM) method is increasing. However, there are only a few studies of evaluation of backfill grout. This study evaluates the TBM tunnel backfill state using Impact-Echo(IE). 3-layers, segment-grout-rock mass, are simulated by FLAC 2D, FDM-based software. The signals obtained from numerical analysis and IE test are analyzed by Short-Time Fourier Transform(STFT) in time domain, frequency domain, and time-frequency domain. The result of this study can be used to evaluate the quality of backfill grouting in tail void.

Keywords: tunnel boring machine, backfill grout, impact-echo method, time-frequency domain analysis, finite difference method

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Khaled Mammar

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This paper presents an application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller for PEM fuel cell system. The model proposed for control include a fuel cell stack model, reformer model and DC/AC inverter model. Furthermore, a Fuzzy Logic (FLC) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy controllers are used to control the active power of PEM fuel cell system. The controllers modify the hydrogen flow feedback from the terminal load. The validity of the controller is verified when the fuel cell system model is used in conjunction with the ANFIS controller to predict the response of the active power. Simulation results confirmed the high-performance capability of the neuo-fuzzy to control power generation.

Keywords: fuel cell, PEMFC, modeling, simulation, Fuzzy Logic Controller, FLC, adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller, ANFIS

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Authors: Nalluri Lakshmi Ramu, C. Venkat Nihit, Narayana Kumar, Dillep

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Masonry bridges are the iconic heritage transportation infrastructure throughout the world. Continuous increase in traffic loads and speed have kept engineers in dilemma about their structural performance and capacity. Henceforth, research community has an urgent need to propose an effective methodology and validate on real-time bridges. The presented research aims to assess the structural health of an Eighty-year-old masonry railway bridge in India using wireless accelerometer sensors. The bridge consists of 44 spans with length of 24.2 m each and individual pier is 13 m tall laid on well foundation. To calculate the dynamic characteristic properties of the bridge, ambient vibrations were recorded from the moving traffic at various speeds and the same are compared with the developed three-dimensional numerical model using finite element-based software. The conclusions about the weaker or deteriorated piers are drawn from the comparison of frequencies obtained from the experimental tests conducted on alternative spans. Masonry is a heterogeneous anisotropic material made up of incoherent materials (such as bricks, stones, and blocks). It is most likely the earliest largely used construction material. Masonry bridges, which were typically constructed of brick and stone, are still a key feature of the world's highway and railway networks. There are 1,47,523 railway bridges across India and about 15% of these bridges are built by masonry, which are around 80 to 100 year old. The cultural significance of masonry bridges cannot be overstated. These bridges are considered to be complicated due to the presence of arches, spandrel walls, piers, foundations, and soils. Due to traffic loads and vibrations, wind, rain, frost attack, high/low temperature cycles, moisture, earthquakes, river overflows, floods, scour, and soil under their foundations may cause material deterioration, opening of joints and ring separation in arch barrels, cracks in piers, loss of brick-stones and mortar joints, distortion of the arch profile. Few NDT tests like Flat jack Tests are being employed to access the homogeneity, durability of masonry structure, however there are many drawbacks because of the test. A modern approach of structural health assessment of masonry structures by vibration analysis, frequencies and stiffness properties is being explored in this paper.

Keywords: masonry bridges, condition assessment, wireless sensors, numerical analysis modal frequencies

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Authors: Arian Ebneyamini, Hoda Azimi, Jules Thibaults, F. Handan Tezel

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In this study, a modification of Hennepe model for pervaporation separation of butanol from aqueous solutions using Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mixed matrix membranes has been introduced and validated by experimental data. The model was compared to the original Hennepe model and few other models which are applicable for membrane gas separation processes such as Maxwell, Lewis Nielson and Pal. Theoretical modifications for non-ideal interface morphology have been offered to predict the permeability in case of interface void, interface rigidification and pore-blockage. The model was in a good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: butanol, PDMS, modeling, pervaporation, mixed matrix membranes

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Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndtsson, Akissa Bahri

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Under salinity conditions, we evaluate the performance of Hilhost (2000) model to predict pore electrical conductivity ECp from dielectric permittivity and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) using Time and Frequency Domain Reflectometry sensors (TDR, FDR). Using FDR_WET sensor, RMSE of ECp was 4.15 dS m-1. By replacing the standard soil parameter (K0) in Hilhost model by K0-ECa relationship, the RMSE of ECp decreased to 0.68 dS m-1. WET sensor could give similar accuracy to estimate ECp than TDR if calibrated values of K0 were used instead of standard values in Hilhost model.

Keywords: hilhost model, soil salinity, time domain reflectometry, frequency domain reflectometry, dielectric methods

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Authors: Ashi Gautam, Isha Shukla, Akhil Seghal

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Biosensors are analytical devices that use a biological sensing element to detect and measure a specific chemical substance or biomolecule in a sample. These devices are widely used in various fields, including medical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, and food analysis, due to their high specificity, sensitivity, and selectivity. In this research paper, a machine learning model is proposed for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings. The proposed model takes in features extracted from biosensor readings, such as biomarker concentration, skin hydration level, inflammation presence, sensitivity, and free radicals, and outputs the most appropriate skin care product for an individual. This model is trained on a dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model's performance is evaluated using several metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. The aim of this research is to develop a personalised skin care product recommendation system using biosensor data. By leveraging the power of machine learning, the proposed model can accurately predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. This is particularly useful in the skin care industry, where personalised recommendations can lead to better outcomes for consumers. The developed model is based on supervised learning, which means that it is trained on a labeled dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model uses these labeled data to learn patterns and relationships between the biosensor readings and skin care products. Once trained, the model can predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The results of this study show that the proposed machine learning model can accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The evaluation metrics used in this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in predicting skin care products. This model has significant potential for practical use in the skin care industry for personalised skin care product recommendations. The proposed machine learning model for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings is a promising development in the skin care industry. The model's ability to accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings can lead to better outcomes for consumers. Further research can be done to improve the model's accuracy and effectiveness.

Keywords: biosensors, data model, machine learning, skin care

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Authors: Suchitra Sivakumar, Hajime Shingyouchi, Toshinori Okajima, Kyohei Yamaguchi, Jin Kusaka

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The progressing need for powertrain electrification calls for more accurate and reliable simulation models. A battery pack serves as the most vital component for energy storage in an electrified powertrain. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) do not behave the same way as they age, and there are several environmental factors that account for the degradation of the battery on a system level. Therefore, in this work, a battery model was proposed to study the state of charge (SOC) variation and the internal dynamic changes that contribute to aging and performance degradation in HEV batteries. An equivalent circuit battery model (ECM) is built using MATLAB Simulink to investigate the output characteristics of the lithium-ion battery. The ECM comprises of circuit elements like a voltage source, a series resistor and a parallel RC network connected in series. A parameter estimation study is conducted on the ECM to study the dependencies of the circuit elements with the state of charge (SOC) and the terminal voltage of the battery. The battery model is extended to simulate the temperature dependence of the individual battery cell and the battery pack with the environment. The temperature dependence model accounts for the heat loss due to internal resistance build up in the battery pack during charging, discharging, and due to atmospheric temperature. The model was validated for a lithium-ion battery pack with an independent drive cycle showing a voltage accuracy of 4% and SOC accuracy of about 2%.

Keywords: battery model, hybrid electric vehicle, lithium-ion battery, thermal model

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Authors: Nataliya Venelinova

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The paper proposes a new interdisciplinary model of reconsidering the role of mass communication effects by coverage of terrorism. The idea of 4P model is based on the synergy, created by the information strategy of threat, predominantly used by terrorist groups, the effects of mediating the symbolic action of the terrorist attacks or the taking of responsibility of any attacks, and the reshaped public perception for security after the attacks being mass communicated. The paper defines the mass communication cycle of terrorism, which leads not only to re-agenda setting of the societies, but also spirally amplifying the effect of propagating fears by over-informing on terrorism attacks. This finally results in the outlining of the so called 4P-model of information terrorism: mass propaganda, panic, paranoia and pandemic.

Keywords: information terrorism, mass communication cycle, public perception, security

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Authors: Hung-Chi Chang

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For an extended EPQ model with random yield, the existent study revealed that both the disaggregating and consolidating shipment policies for the imperfect quality items are independent of holding cost, and recommended a model with economic benefit by comparing the least total cost for each of the three models investigated. To better capture the real situation, we generalize the existent study to include different holding costs for perfect and imperfect quality items. Through analysis, we show that the above shipment policies are dependent on holding costs. Furthermore, we derive a simple decision rule solely based on the thresholds of problem parameters to select a superior model. The results are illustrated analytically and numerically.

Keywords: consolidating shipments, disaggregating shipments, EPQ, imperfect quality, inventory

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Authors: E. L. Albuquerque, U. L. Fulco, G. S. Ourique

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The focus of this work is on the numerical investigation of the charge transport properties of the de novo-designed alpha3 polypeptide, as well as in its variants, all of them probed by gene engineering. The theoretical framework makes use of a tight-binding model Hamiltonian, together with ab-initio calculations within quantum chemistry simulation. The alpha3 polypeptide is a 21-residue with three repeats of the seven-residue amino acid sequence Leu-Glu-Thr-Leu-Ala-Lys-Ala, forming an alpha–helical bundle structure. Its variants are obtained by Ala→Gln substitution at the e (5th) and g (7th) position, respectively, of the alpha3 polypeptide amino acid sequence. Using transmission electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy, it was observed that the alpha3 polypeptide and one of its variant do have the ability to form fibrous assemblies, while the other does not. Our main aim is to investigate whether or not the biased alpha3 polypeptide and its variants can be also identified by quantum charge transport measurements through current-voltage (IxV) curves as a pattern to characterize their fibrous assemblies. It was observed that each peptide has a characteristic current pattern, which may be distinguished by charge transport measurements, suggesting that it might be a useful tool for the development of biosensors.

Keywords: charge transport properties, electronic transmittance, current-voltage characteristics, biological sensor

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Aijaz A. Shaikh, Richard Glavee-Geo, Heikki Karjaluoto

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Adoption of Information Systems (IS) is receiving increasing attention such that its implications have been closely monitored and studied by the IS management community, industry and professional gatekeepers. Building on previous research regarding the adoption of technology, this paper develops and validates an integrated model of the adoption of mobile banking. The model originates from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). This paper intends to offer a preliminary scrutiny of the antecedents of the adoption of mobile banking services in the context of a developing country. Data was collected from Pakistan. The findings showed that an integrated TAM and TPB model greatly explains the adoption intention of mobile banking; and perceived behavioural control and its antecedents play a significant role in predicting adoption Theoretical and managerial implications of findings are presented and discussed.

Keywords: developing country, mobile banking service adoption, technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing

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Authors: Kadri Koçer, Sezer Kefeli

Abstract:

This paper proposes a comparison of hydrodynamic performance and stability characteristic for an underwater vehicle which has two type of tail design, namely X and +tail-body configurations. The effects of these configurations on the underwater vehicle’s hydrodynamic performance and maneuvering characteristic will be investigated comprehensively. Hydrodynamic damping coefficients for modeling the motion of the underwater vehicles will be predicted. Additionally, forces and moments due to control surfaces will be compared using computational fluid dynamics methods. In the aviation, the X tail-body configuration is widely used for high maneuverability requirements. However, in the underwater, the + tail-body configuration is more commonly used than the X tail-body configuration for its stability characteristics. Thus it is important to see the effect and differences of the tail designs in the underwater world. For CFD analysis, the incompressible, three-dimensional, and steady Navier-Stokes equations will be used to simulate the flows. Also, k-ε Realizable turbulence model with enhanced wall treatment will be taken. Numerical results is verified with experimental results for verification. The overall goal of this study is to present the advantages and disadvantages of hydrodynamic performance and stability characteristic for X and + tail-body configurations of the underwater vehicle.

Keywords: maneuverability, stability, CFD, tail configuration, hydrodynamic design

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Authors: Seyed Sobhan Alvani, Mohammad Gohari

Abstract:

By developing cities and increasing the population, traffic congestion has become a vital problem. Due to this crisis, urban designers try to present solutions to decrease this difficulty. On the other hand, predicting the model with perfect accuracy is essential for solution-providing. The current study presents a model based on artificial intelligence which can predict traffic index based on city population, growth rate, and area. The accuracy of the model was evaluated, which is acceptable and it is around 90%. Thus, urban designers and planners can employ it for predicting traffic index in the future to provide strategies.

Keywords: traffic index, population growth rate, cities wideness, artificial neural network

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

Procedia PDF Downloads 359