Search results for: risk estimation

Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: Hatice Boyacioglu, Nursel Akkaya, Humeyra Ozge Yilanci, Hilmi Kansu, Nihal Avcu

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The strong relationship between the reduction in the size of the pulp cavity and increasing age has been reported in the literature. This relationship can be utilized to estimate the age of an individual by measuring the pulp cavity size using dental radiographs as a non-destructive method. The purpose of this study is to develop a population specific regression model for age estimation in a sample of Turkish adults by applying Cameriere’s method on panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of 100 panoramic radiographs of Turkish patients (40 men, 60 women) aged between 20 and 70 years. Pulp and tooth area ratios (AR) of the maxilla¬¬ry canines were measured by two maxillofacial radiologists and then the results were subjected to regression analysis. There were no statistically significant intra-observer and inter-observer differences. The correlation coefficient between age and the AR of the maxillary canines was -0.71 and the following regression equation was derived: Estimated Age = 77,365 – ( 351,193 × AR ). The mean prediction error was 4 years which is within acceptable errors limits for age estimation. This shows that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of this research, it was concluded that Cameriere’s method is suitable for dental age estimation and it can be used for forensic procedures in Turkish adults. These instructions give you guidelines for preparing papers for conferences or journals.

Keywords: age estimation by teeth, forensic dentistry, panoramic radiograph, Cameriere's method

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

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Authors: Vikram Saini, Lillie Dewan

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This paper presents the iterative schemes based on Least square, Hierarchical Least Square and Stochastic Approximation Gradient method for the Identification of Wiener model with parametric structure. A gradient method is presented for the parameter estimation of wiener model with noise conditions based on the stochastic approximation. Simulation results are presented for the Wiener model structure with different static non-linear elements in the presence of colored noise to show the comparative analysis of the iterative methods. The stochastic gradient method shows improvement in the estimation performance and provides fast convergence of the parameters estimates.

Keywords: hard non-linearity, least square, parameter estimation, stochastic approximation gradient, Wiener model

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Sang-Hun Byun

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Risk assessment is carried out in most industrial plants for accident prevention, but there exists insufficient data for statistical decision making. It is commonly said that risk can be expressed as a product of consequence and likelihood of a corresponding hazard factor. Eventually, therefore, risk assessment involves human decision making which cannot be objective per se. This study was carried out to comprehend perceptive characteristics of human beings in industrial plants. Subjects were shown a set of illustrations describing scenes of industrial plants, and were asked to assess the risk of each scene with not only linguistic variables but also numeric scores in the aspect of consequence and likelihood. After that, their responses were formulated as fuzzy membership functions, and compared with those of university students who had no experience of industrial works. The results showed that risk level of industrial workers were lower than those of any other groups, which implied that the workers might generally have a tendency to neglect more hazard factors in their work fields.

Keywords: fuzzy, hazard, linguistic variable, risk assessment

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Authors: Ibtissam Mharzi Alaoui, Camélia Sehaqui

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The success of a bank depends upon its effective risk management. With the growing complexity and diversity of financial products and services, as well as the accelerating pace of globalization over the past decade, risk management is becoming increasingly difficult. thus, all measurement and monitoring functions must be much more vigorous, relevant and adequate. The Shariah non-compliance risk is specific aspect of Islamic finance which ipso facto, deserves particular attention. It affects the validity of all Islamic financial contracts and it turns out to be likely to result in considerable losses on the overall Islamic financial institutions (IFIs). The purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical literature on Shariah non-compliance risk in order to give a clearer understanding of its sources, causes and consequences. Our intention through this work is to bring added value to the Islamic finance industry all over the world. The findings provide a useful reference work for the Islamic banks in structuring (or restructuring) of their own system of shariah risk management and internal control.

Keywords: Shariah non-compliance, risk management, financial products, Islamic finance.

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Authors: Ashwani Kumar

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GPS plays an important role in everyday life for safe and convenient transportation. While pedestrians use hand held devices to know their position in a city, vehicles in intelligent transport systems use relatively sophisticated GPS receivers for estimating their current position. However, in urban areas where the GPS satellites are occluded by tall buildings, trees and reflections of GPS signals from nearby vehicles, GPS position estimation becomes poor. In this work, an exhaustive GPS data is collected at a single point in urban area under different times of day and under dynamic environmental conditions. The data is analyzed and statistical refinement methods are used to obtain optimal position estimate among all the measured positions. The results obtained are compared with publically available datasets and obtained position estimation refinement results are promising.

Keywords: global positioning system, statistical approach, intelligent transport systems, least squares estimation

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Authors: Dong-Ho Kim, Zheng-Xun Jin, Yong-Woon Cha, Su-Sang Lim, Sang-Won Han, Chang-Taek Hyun

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As construction is a labor-intensive industry, it is important to identify and manage labor quantities for accurate progress management of the construction project. However, the progress management that focuses on construction cost calculated based on materials rather than labor quantities has led to a difference in the implementation of cost and progress of the actual construction. In addition, since it is not easy to predict accurate labor quantities in the estimation of labor quantity-based progress rate, there have been limited researches into the progress rate estimation based on labor quantity. Accordingly, this study proposed a process for labor quantity-based progress rate estimation using a standard of estimate to predict accurate progress rate of the construction project in Republic Korea. It is expected that the utilization of the proposed process will help to identify the progress rate closer to that of the actual site management and adjust the workforce in each construction type, thereby contributing to improving construction efficiency.

Keywords: labor based, labor cost, progress management, progress rate, progress payment

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Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao

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The study attempts to analyze the impact of credit risk management practices of Indian scheduled commercial banks on their non-performing assets (NPAs). The data on credit risk practices was collected by administering a questionnaire to risk managers/executives at different banks. The data on NPAs (from 2012 to 2016) is sourced from Prowess, a database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was estimated using cross-sectional regression method. As expected, the findings suggest that there is a negative relationship between credit risk management and NPA growth in Indian banks. The study has implications for Indian banks given the high level of losses, and the implementation of Basel III norms by the central bank, i.e. Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Evidence on credit risk management in Indian banks, and their relationship with non-performing assets held by them.

Keywords: credit risk, identification, Indian Banks, NPAs, ownership

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Authors: Mati Ullah, Shams Ur Rahman

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The purpose of this research study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors on credit risk in Islamic banking in Pakistan. The future of financial institutions largely depends on how well they manage risks. Credit risk is an important type of risk affecting the banking sector. The current study has taken quarterly data for the period of 6 years, from 1st July 2014 to 30 Jun 2020. The data set consisted of secondary data. Data was extracted from the websites of the State Bank and World Bank and from the financial statements of the concerned banks. In this study, the Ordinary least square model was used for the analysis of the data. The results supported the hypothesis that macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors have a significant effect on credit risk. Macroeconomic variables, Inflation and exchange rates have positive significant effects on credit risk. However, gross domestic product has a negative significant relationship with credit risk. Moreover, the corporate rate has no significant relation with credit risk. Internal variables, size, management efficiency, net profit share income and capital adequacy have been proven to influence positively and significantly the credit risk. However, loan to deposit-has a negative insignificance relationship with credit risk. The contribution of this article is that similar conclusions have been made regarding the influence of banking factors on credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk, Islamic banks, macroeconomic variables, banks specific variable

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Mária Lusková

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This report is focused on widening the theoretical knowledge as well as controlling practical application from the risk management point of view, regarding to dynamic business changes that have occurred in Slovakia which recently has been considered to be an environment full of risk and uncertainty. The idea of the report is the proposal of the controlling operation model in the course of risk management process in an enterprise operating in Slovakia, by which the controller is able to identify early risk factors in suggested major areas of the business management upon appropriate business information integration, consecutive control and prognoses and to prepare in time full-value documents in order to suggest measures for reduction thereof. Dealing with risk factors, that can quickly limit the growth potential of the enterprise, is an essential part of managerial activities on each level. This is the reason why mutual unofficial, ergo collegial cooperation of individual departments is necessary for controlling application from the business risk management point of view. An important part of the report is elaborated survey of the most important risk factors existing in major management areas of enterprises operating in Slovakia. The outcome of the performed survey is a catalogue of the most important enterprise risk factors. The catalogue serves for better understanding risk factors affecting the Slovak enterprises, their importance and evaluation.

Keywords: controlling, information, risks, risk factor, crisis

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.

Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure

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Authors: Savita, Anurag Sharma, Harsukhpreet Singh

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Fetal Electrocardiogram (fECG) is a widely used technique to assess the fetal well-being and identify any changes that might be with problems during pregnancy and to evaluate the health and conditions of the fetus. Various techniques or methods have been employed to diagnose the fECG from abdominal signal. This paper describes the facile approach for the estimation of the fECG known as Adaptive Comb. Filter (ACF). The ACF can adjust according to the temporal variations in fundamental frequency by itself that used for the estimation of the quasi periodic signal of ECG signal.

Keywords: aECG, ACF, fECG, mECG

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Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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Authors: Qiang Wang, Hongyang Yu

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Multi-human 3D pose estimation is a challenging task in computer vision, which aims to recover the 3D joint locations of multiple people from multi-view images. In contrast to traditional methods, which typically only use color (RGB) images as input, our approach utilizes both color and depth (D) information contained in RGB-D images. We also employ a transformer-based model as the backbone of our approach, which is able to capture long-range dependencies and has been shown to perform well on various sequence modeling tasks. Our method is trained and tested on the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Panoptic dataset, which contains a diverse set of indoor and outdoor scenes with multiple people in varying poses and clothing. We evaluate the performance of our model on the standard 3D pose estimation metrics of mean per-joint position error (MPJPE). Our results show that the transformer-based approach outperforms traditional methods and achieves competitive results on the CMU Panoptic dataset. We also perform an ablation study to understand the impact of different design choices on the overall performance of the model. In summary, our work demonstrates the effectiveness of using a transformer-based approach with RGB-D images for multi-human 3D pose estimation and has potential applications in real-world scenarios such as human-computer interaction, robotics, and augmented reality.

Keywords: multi-human 3D pose estimation, RGB-D images, transformer, 3D joint locations

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Authors: Amin Sedighfar, M. R. Moniri

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Determination of state of charge (SOC) in today’s world becomes an increasingly important issue in all the applications that include a battery. In fact, estimation of the SOC is a fundamental need for the battery, which is the most important energy storage in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), smart grid systems, drones, UPS and so on. Regarding those applications, the SOC estimation algorithm is expected to be precise and easy to implement. This paper presents an online method for the estimation of the SOC of Valve-Regulated Lead Acid (VRLA) batteries. The proposed method uses the well-known Kalman Filter (KF), and Neural Networks (NNs) and all of the simulations have been done with MATLAB software. The NN is trained offline using the data collected from the battery discharging process. A generic cell model is used, and the underlying dynamic behavior of the model has used two capacitors (bulk and surface) and three resistors (terminal, surface, and end), where the SOC determined from the voltage represents the bulk capacitor. The aim of this work is to compare the performance of conventional integration-based SOC estimation methods with a mixed algorithm. Moreover, by containing the effect of temperature, the final result becomes more accurate. 

Keywords: Kalman filter, neural networks, state-of-charge, VRLA battery

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Authors: Noor A. Hakim

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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

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Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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Authors: Nilamadhab Mohanty

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It is essential to use message formats that make communication understandable and correct. It is because; the information format can influence consumer decision on the purchase of a product. This study combines information from qualitative inquiry, media trend analysis, eye tracking experiment, and questionnaire data to examine the impact of specific message format and consumer perceived risk on attention to the information and risk retention. We investigated the influence of message framing (goal framing, attribute framing, and mix framing) on consumer memory, study time, and decisional uncertainty while deciding on the purchase of drugs. Furthermore, we explored the impact of consumer perceived risk (associated with the use of the drug, i.e., RISK-AB and perceived risk associated with the non-use of the drug, i.e., RISK-EB) on message format preference. The study used eye-tracking methods to understand the differences in message processing. Findings of the study suggest that the message format influences information processing, and participants' risk perception impacts message format preference. Eye tracking can be used to understand the format differences and design effective advertisements.

Keywords: message framing, consumer perceived risk, advertising, eye tracking

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Sahar Tabarroki, Ahad Nazari

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The design process is one of the most key project processes in the construction industry. Although architects have the responsibility to produce complete, accurate, and coordinated documents, architectural design is accompanied by many errors. A design error occurs when the constraints and requirements of the design are not satisfied. Errors are potentially costly and time-consuming to correct if not caught early during the design phase, and they become expensive in either construction documents or in the construction phase. The aim of this research is to identify the risk factors of architectural design errors, so identification of risks is necessary. First, a literature review in the design process was conducted and then a questionnaire was designed to identify the risks and risk factors. The questions in the form of the questionnaire were based on the “similar service description of study and supervision of architectural works” published by “Vice Presidency of Strategic Planning & Supervision of I.R. Iran” as the base of architects’ tasks. Second, the top 10 risks of architectural activities were identified. To determine the positions of possible causes of risks with respect to architectural activities, these activities were located in a design process modeled by the IDEF0 technique. The research was carried out by choosing a case study, checking the design drawings, interviewing its architect and client, and providing a checklist in order to identify the concrete examples of architectural design errors. The results revealed that activities such as “defining the current and future requirements of the project”, “studies and space planning,” and “time and cost estimation of suggested solution” has a higher error risk than others. Moreover, the most important causes include “unclear goals of a client”, “time force by a client”, and “lack of knowledge of architects about the requirements of end-users”. For error detecting in the case study, lack of criteria, standards and design criteria, and lack of coordination among them, was a barrier, anyway, “lack of coordination between architectural design and electrical and mechanical facility”, “violation of the standard dimensions and sizes in space designing”, “design omissions” were identified as the most important design errors.

Keywords: architectural design, design error, risk management, risk factor

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Authors: Joshua Midha

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This paper provides an evaluation of an intervention designed to promote a risk-realistic environment for women in the workplace and regulate their risk-related decision-making. In past research, women -specifically women of color- are highly risk-averse, and this may prove to be an innate obstacle in gender progress in corporations. By helping women see the risks and the benefits and increasing potential benefits, we can increase the chances of success in the workplace. Our intervention was a success and significantly increased comfort, trust, and frequency in the use of decision-making skills in the workplace. In this paper, we explore the intervention, the methods, the results, and the implications.

Keywords: behavioral economics, decision support, risk, gender equality

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is reversible; however, the effect of changes in MetS status on the risk of incident cancer has not been extensively studied. We aimed to investigate the effects of changes in MetS status on incident cancer risk. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study used data from Taiwan’s MJ cohort of 157,915 adults recruited from 2002–2016 who had repeated MetS measurements 5.2 (±3.5) years apart and were followed up for the new onset of cancer over 8.2 (±4.5) years. A new diagnosis of incident cancer in study individuals was confirmed by their pathohistological reports. The participants’ MetS status included MetS-free (n=119,331), MetS-developed (n=14,272), MetS-recovered (n=7,914), and MetS-persistent (n=16,398). We used the Fine-Gray sub-distribution method, with death as the competing risk, to determine the association between MetS changes and the risk of incident cancer. Results: During the follow-up period, 7,486 individuals had new development of cancer. Compared with the MetS-free group, MetS-persistent individuals had a significantly higher risk of incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.18). Considering the effect of dynamic changes in MetS status on the risk of specific cancer types, MetS persistence was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident colon and rectum, kidney, pancreas, uterus, and thyroid cancer. The risk of kidney, uterus, and thyroid cancer in MetS-recovered individuals was higher than in those who remained MetS but lower than MetS-persistent individuals. Conclusions: Persistent MetS is associated with a higher risk of incident cancer, and recovery from MetS may reduce the risk. The findings of our study suggest that it is imperative for individuals with pre-existing MetS to seek treatment for this condition to reduce the cancer risk.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome change, cancer, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Daniel C. Bonzo

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Practical considerations lead to the use of unit of analysis within subjects, e.g., bleeding episodes or treatment-related adverse events, in rare disease settings. This is coupled with data augmentation techniques such as extrapolation to enlarge the subject base. In general, one can think about extrapolation of data as extending information and conclusions from one estimand to another estimand. This approach induces hierarchichal clustered data with varying cluster sizes. Extrapolation of clinical trial data is being accepted increasingly by regulatory agencies as a means of generating data in diverse situations during drug development process. Under certain circumstances, data can be extrapolated to a different population, a different but related indication, and different but similar product. We consider here the problem of estimation (point and interval) using a mixed-models approach under an extrapolation. It is proposed that estimators (point and interval) be constructed using weighting schemes for the clusters, e.g., equally weighted and with weights proportional to cluster size. Simulated data generated under varying scenarios are then used to evaluate the performance of this approach. In conclusion, the evaluation result showed that the approach is a useful means for improving statistical inference in rare disease settings and thus aids not only signal detection but risk-benefit evaluation as well.

Keywords: clustered data, estimand, extrapolation, mixed model

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Authors: Pırıl Tekin, Rızvan Erol

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Risk management has become very important and popular in developing countries in recent years. Especially making patient and employee health and safety issues compulsory in the hospitals, raised the number of studies in Turkey. Also risk management become more important for hospital senior management from clinics to the laboratories. Because quality is really important to be chosen for both patients to consult and employees to prefer to work. And also risk management studies can lead to hospital management team about future works and methods. By this point of view, this study is the risk assessment carried out in the biggest dental hospital in the south part of Turkey. This study was conducted as a research case study, covering two different health care place; A Clinic and A Laboratory. It shows that the problems in this dental hospital and how it can solve all.

Keywords: risk management, healthcare, dental hospital, quality management

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Authors: S. Suman, G. N. Singh

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This research work is an effort to analyse the consequences of scrambled response technique to estimate the current population mean in two-occasion successive sampling when the characteristic of interest is sensitive in nature. The generalized estimation procedures have been proposed using sensitive auxiliary variables under additive and multiplicative scramble models. The properties of resultant estimators have been deeply examined. Simulation, as well as empirical studies, are carried out to evaluate the performances of the proposed estimators with respect to other competent estimators. The results of our studies suggest that the proposed estimation procedures are highly effective under the presence of non-response situation. The result of this study also suggests that additive scrambled response model is a better choice in the perspective of cost of the survey and privacy of the respondents.

Keywords: scrambled response, sensitive characteristic, successive sampling, optimum replacement strategy

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

Abstract:

Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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