Search results for: predict

Authors: Nuno Biga

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows machines to interpret information and learn from context analysis, giving them the ability to make predictions adjusted to each specific situation. In addition to learning by performing deterministic and probabilistic calculations, the 'artificial brain' also learns through information and data provided by those who train it, namely its users. The "Assisted-BIGAMES" version of the Accident & Emergency (A&E) simulator introduces the concept of a "Virtual Assistant" (VA) that provides users with useful suggestions, namely to pursue the following operations: a) to relocate workstations in order to shorten travelled distances and minimize the stress of those involved; b) to identify in real time the bottleneck(s) in the operations system so that it is possible to quickly act upon them; c) to identify resources that should be polyvalent so that the system can be more efficient; d) to identify in which specific processes it may be advantageous to establish partnership with other teams; and e) to assess possible solutions based on the suggested KPIs allowing action monitoring to guide the (re)definition of future strategies. This paper is built on the BIGAMES© simulator and presents the conceptual AI model developed in a pilot project. Each Virtual Assisted BIGAME is a management simulator developed by the author that guides operational and strategic decision making, providing users with useful information in the form of management recommendations that make it possible to predict the actual outcome of different alternative management strategic actions. The pilot project developed incorporates results from 12 editions of the BIGAME A&E that took place between 2017 and 2022 at AESE Business School, based on the compilation of data that allows establishing causal relationships between decisions taken and results obtained. The systemic analysis and interpretation of this information is materialised in the Assisted-BIGAMES through a computer application called "BIGAMES Virtual Assistant" that players can use during the Game. Each participant in the Virtual Assisted-BIGAMES permanently asks himself about the decisions he should make during the game in order to win the competition. To this end, the role of the VA of each team consists in guiding the players to be more effective in their decision making through presenting recommendations based on AI methods. It is important to note that the VA's suggestions for action can be accepted or rejected by the managers of each team, and as the participants gain a better understanding of the game, they will more easily dispense with the VA's recommendations and rely more on their own experience, capability, and knowledge to support their own decisions. Preliminary results show that the introduction of the VA provides a faster learning of the decision-making process. The facilitator (Serious Game Controller) is responsible for supporting the players with further analysis and the recommended action may be (or not) aligned with the previous recommendations of the VA. All the information should be jointly analysed and assessed by each player, who are expected to add “Emotional Intelligence”, a component absent from the machine learning process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), gamification, key performance indicators (KPI), machine learning, management simulators, serious games, virtual assistant

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Authors: Igor Povar, Catherine Goyet

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The seawater is subject to multiple external stressors (ES) including rising atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification, global warming, atmospheric deposition of pollutants and eutrophication, which deeply alter its chemistry, often on a global scale and, in some cases, at the degree significantly exceeding that in the historical and recent geological verification. In ocean systems the micro- and macronutrients, heavy metals, phosphor- and nitrogen-containing components exist in different forms depending on the concentrations of various other species, organic matter, the types of minerals, the pH etc. The major limitation to assessing more strictly the ES to oceans, such as pollutants (atmospheric greenhouse gas, heavy metals, nutrients as nitrates and phosphates) is the lack of theoretical approach which could predict the ocean resistance to multiple external stressors. In order to assess the abovementioned ES, the research has applied and developed the buffer theory approach and theoretical expressions of the formal chemical thermodynamics to ocean systems, as heterogeneous aqueous systems. The thermodynamic expressions of complex chemical equilibria, involving acid-base, complex formation and mineral ones have been deduced. This thermodynamic approach utilizes thermodynamic relationships coupled with original mass balance constraints, where the solid phases are explicitly expressed. The ocean sensitivity to different external stressors and changes in driving factors are considered in terms of derived buffering capacities or buffer factors for heterogeneous systems. Our investigations have proved that the heterogeneous aqueous systems, as ocean and seas are, manifest their buffer properties towards all their components, not only to pH, as it has been known so far, for example in respect to carbon dioxide, carbonates, phosphates, Ca2+, Mg2+, heavy metal ions etc. The derived expressions make possible to attribute changes in chemical ocean composition to different pollutants. These expressions are also useful for improving the current atmosphere-ocean-marine biogeochemistry models. The major research questions, to which the research responds, are: (i.) What kind of contamination is the most harmful for Future Ocean? (ii.) What are chemical heterogeneous processes of the heavy metal release from sediments and minerals and its impact to the ocean buffer action? (iii.) What will be the long-term response of the coastal ocean to the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic pollutants? (iv.) How will change the ocean resistance in terms of future chemical complex processes and buffer capacities and its response to external (anthropogenic) perturbations? The ocean buffer capacities towards its main components are recommended as parameters that should be included in determining the most important ocean factors which define the response of ocean environment at the technogenic loads increasing. The deduced thermodynamic expressions are valid for any combination of chemical composition, or any of the species contributing to the total concentration, as independent state variable.

Keywords: atmospheric greenhouse gas, chemical thermodynamics, external stressors, pollutants, seawater

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Authors: Chuyu Huang, Itsuki Minemi, Kuanlin Chen, Yuki Hirose

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It remains unclear how language speakers are able to perceive phonological contrasts that do not exist on their own. This experiment uses the vowel-length distinction in Japanese, which is phonologically contrastive and co-occurs with tonal change in some cases. For speakers whose first language does not distinguish vowel length, contrastive duration is usually misperceived, e.g., Mandarin speakers. Two alternative hypotheses for how Mandarin speakers would perceive a phonological contrast that does not exist in their language make different predictions. The stress parameter model does not have a clear prediction about the impact of tonal type. Mandarin speakers will likely be not able to perceive vowel length as well as Japanese native speakers do, but the performance might not correlate to tonal type because the prosody of their language is distinctive, which requires users to encode lexical prosody and notice subtle differences in word prosody. By contrast, cue-based phonetic models predict that Mandarin speakers may rely on pitch differences, a secondary cue, to perceive vowel length. Two groups of Mandarin speakers, including naive non-Japanese speakers and beginner learners, were recruited to participate in an AX discrimination task involving two Japanese sound stimuli that contain a phonologically contrastive environment. Participants were asked to indicate whether the two stimuli containing a vowel-length contrast (e.g., maapero vs. mapero) sound the same. The experiment was bifactorial. The first factor contrasted three syllabic positions (syllable position; initial/medial/final), as it would be likely to affect the perceptual difficulty, as seen in previous studies, and the second factor contrasted two pitch types (accent type): one with accentual change that could be distinguished with the lexical tones in Mandarin (the different condition), with the other group having no tonal distinction but only differing in vowel length (the same condition). The overall results showed that a significant main effect of accent type by applying a linear mixed-effects model (β = 1.48, SE = 0.35, p < 0.05), which implies that Mandarin speakers tend to more successfully recognize vowel-length differences when the long vowel counterpart takes on a tone that exists in Mandarin. The interaction between the accent type and the syllabic position is also significant (β = 2.30, SE = 0.91, p < 0.05), showing that vowel lengths in the different conditions are more difficult to recognize in the word-final case relative to the initial condition. The second statistical model, which compares naive speakers to beginners, was conducted with logistic regression to test the effects of the participant group. A significant difference was found between the two groups (β = 1.06, 95% CI = [0.36, 2.03], p < 0.05). This study shows that: (1) Mandarin speakers are likely to use pitch cues to perceive vowel length in a non-native language, which is consistent with the cue-based approaches; (2) an exposure effect was observed: the beginner group achieved a higher accuracy for long vowel perception, which implied the exposure effect despite the short period of language learning experience.

Keywords: cue-based perception, exposure effect, prosodic perception, vowel duration

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Authors: Raj Chandran, Saul Datwyler, Jaime Marino, Daniel West, Karla Grasso, Adam Buss, Hina Syed, Zina Al Sahouri, Jennifer Yen, Krista Caudle, Beth McQuiston

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The Alinity i TBI test is Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) registered and is a panel of in vitro diagnostic chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassays for the measurement of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1) in plasma and serum. The Alinity i TBI performance was evaluated in a multi-center pivotal study to demonstrate the capability to assist in determining the need for a CT scan of the head in adult subjects (age 18+) presenting with suspected mild TBI (traumatic brain injury) with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13 to 15. TBI has been recognized as an important cause of death and disability and is a growing public health problem. An estimated 69 million people globally experience a TBI annually1. Blood-based biomarkers such as glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1) have shown utility to predict acute traumatic intracranial injury on head CT scans after TBI. A pivotal study using prospectively collected archived (frozen) plasma specimens was conducted to establish the clinical performance of the TBI test on the Alinity i system. The specimens were originally collected in a prospective, multi-center clinical study. Testing of the specimens was performed at three clinical sites in the United States. Performance characteristics such as detection limits, imprecision, linearity, measuring interval, expected values, and interferences were established following Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidance. Of the 1899 mild TBI subjects, 120 had positive head CT scan results; 116 of the 120 specimens had a positive TBI interpretation (Sensitivity 96.7%; 95% CI: 91.7%, 98.7%). Of the 1779 subjects with negative CT scan results, 713 had a negative TBI interpretation (Specificity 40.1%; 95% CI: 37.8, 42.4). The negative predictive value (NPV) of the test was 99.4% (713/717, 95% CI: 98.6%, 99.8%). The analytical measuring interval (AMI) extends from the limit of quantitation (LoQ) to the upper LoQ and is determined by the range that demonstrates acceptable performance for linearity, imprecision, and bias. The AMI is 6.1 to 42,000 pg/mL for GFAP and 26.3 to 25,000 pg/mL for UCH-L1. Overall, within-laboratory imprecision (20 day) ranged from 3.7 to 5.9% CV for GFAP and 3.0 to 6.0% CV for UCH-L1, when including lot and instrument variances. The Alinity i TBI clinical performance results demonstrated high sensitivity and high NPV, supporting the utility to assist in determining the need for a head CT scan in subjects presenting to the emergency department with suspected mild TBI. The GFAP and UCH-L1 assays show robust analytical performance across a broad concentration range of GFAP and UCH-L1 and may serve as a valuable tool to help evaluate TBI patients across the spectrum of mild to severe injury.

Keywords: biomarker, diagnostic, neurology, TBI

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Authors: Dylan Santos De Pinho, Nabil Ouerhani

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Energy consumption of machine-tools is becoming critical for machine-tool builders and end-users because of economic, ecological and legislation-related reasons. Many machine-tool builders are seeking for solutions that allow the reduction of energy consumption of machine-tools while preserving the same productivity rate and the same quality of machined parts. In this paper, we present the first results of a project conducted jointly by academic and industrial partners to reduce the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type lathe. We employ genetic algorithms to find optimal machining parameters – the set of parameters that lead to the best trade-off between energy consumption, part quality and tool lifetime. Three main machining process parameters are considered in our optimization technique, namely depth of cut, spindle rotation speed and material feed rate. These machining process parameters have been identified as the most influential ones in the configuration of the Swiss-type machining process. A state-of-the-art multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used. The algorithm combines three fitness functions, which are objective functions that permit to evaluate a set of parameters against the three objectives: energy consumption, quality of the machined parts, and tool lifetime. In this paper, we focus on the investigation of the fitness function related to energy consumption. Four different energy consumption related fitness functions have been investigated and compared. The first fitness function refers to the Kienzle cutting force model. The second fitness function uses the Material Removal Rate (RMM) as an indicator of energy consumption. The two other fitness functions are non-deterministic, learning-based functions. One fitness function uses a simple Neural Network to learn the relation between the process parameters and the energy consumption from experimental data. Another fitness function uses Lasso regression to determine the same relation. The goal is, then, to find out which fitness functions predict best the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type machining process for the given set of machining process parameters. Once determined, these functions may be used for optimization purposes – determine the optimal machining process parameters leading to minimum energy consumption. The performance of the four fitness functions has been evaluated. The Tornos DT13 Swiss-Type Lathe has been used to carry out the experiments. A mechanical part including various Swiss-Type machining operations has been selected for the experiments. The evaluation process starts with generating a set of CNC (Computer Numerical Control) programs for machining the part at hand. Each CNC program considers a different set of machining process parameters. During the machining process, the power consumption of the spindle is measured. All collected data are assigned to the appropriate CNC program and thus to the set of machining process parameters. The evaluation approach consists in calculating the correlation between the normalized measured power consumption and the normalized power consumption prediction for each of the four fitness functions. The evaluation shows that the Lasso and Neural Network fitness functions have the highest correlation coefficient with 97%. The fitness function “Material Removal Rate” (MRR) has a correlation coefficient of 90%, whereas the Kienzle-based fitness function has a correlation coefficient of 80%.

Keywords: adaptive machining, genetic algorithms, smart manufacturing, parameters optimization

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Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

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Authors: I. Hosni, L. Bennaceur Farah, N. Saber, R Bennaceur

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Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Keywords: multiscale, bidimensional, wavelets, backscattering, multilayer, SPM, air pockets

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Authors: Marc Toutain, Pascale Leconte, Antoine Gauthier

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Introduction: Eating Disorders (ED), such as anorexia, bulimia, and binge eating, are psychiatric illnesses that mostly affect young people. The main symptoms concern eating (restriction, excessive food intake) and weight control behaviors (laxatives, vomiting). Psychological comorbidities (depression, executive function disorders, etc.) and problematic behaviors toward physical activity (PA) are commonly associated with ED. Acquaintances on ED risk factors are still lacking, and more community sample studies are needed to improve prevention and early detection. To our knowledge, studies are needed to specifically investigate the link between ED risk level, PA, and psychological risk factors in a community sample of adolescents. The aim of this study is to assess the relation between ED risk level, exercise (type, frequency, and motivations for engaging in exercise), and psychological factors based on the Jacobi risk factors model. We suppose that a high risk of ED will be associated with the practice of high caloric cost PA, motivations oriented to weight and shape control, and psychological disturbances. Method: An online survey destined for students has been sent to several middle schools and colleges in northwest France. This survey combined several questionnaires, the Eating Attitude Test-26 assessing ED risk; the Exercise Motivation Inventory–2 assessing motivations toward PA; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale assessing anxiety and depression, the Contour Drawing Rating Scale; and the Body Esteem Scale assessing body dissatisfaction, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale assessing self-esteem, the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised assessing PA dependence, the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness assessing interoceptive awareness and the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assessing perfectionism. Machine learning analysis will be performed in order to constitute groups with a tree-based model clustering method, extract risk profile(s) with a bootstrap method comparison, and predict ED risk with a prediction method based on a decision tree-based model. Expected results: 1044 complete records have already been collected, and the survey will be closed at the end of May 2022. Records will be analyzed with a clustering method and a bootstrap method in order to reveal risk profile(s). Furthermore, a predictive tree decision method will be done to extract an accurate predictive model of ED risk. This analysis will confirm typical main risk factors and will give more data on presumed strong risk factors such as exercise motivations and interoceptive deficit. Furthermore, it will enlighten particular risk profiles with a strong level of proof and greatly contribute to improving the early detection of ED and contribute to a better understanding of ED risk factors.

Keywords: eating disorders, risk factors, physical activity, machine learning

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Authors: Carla M. Machado, André A. Silva, Armando Bastos, Telmo G. Santos, J. Pamies Teixeira

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Advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) are increasingly being used in automotive components. The use of AHSS sheets plays an important role in reducing weight, as well as increasing the resistance to impact in vehicle components. However, the large-scale use of these sheets becomes more difficult due to the limitations during the forming process. Such limitations are due to the elastically driven change of shape of a metal sheet during unloading and following forming, known as the springback effect. As the magnitude of the springback tends to increase with the strength of the material, it is among the most worrisome problems in the use of AHSS steels. The prediction of strain hardening, especially under non-proportional loading conditions, is very limited due to the lack of constitutive models and mainly due to very limited experimental tests. It is very clear from the literature that in experimental terms there is not much work to evaluate deformation behavior under real conditions, which implies a very limited and scarce development of mathematical models for these conditions. The Bauschinger effect is also fundamental to the difference between kinematic and isotropic hardening models used to predict springback in sheet metal forming. It is of major importance to deepen the phenomenological knowledge of the mechanical and microstructural behavior of the materials, in order to be able to reproduce with high fidelity the behavior of extension of the materials by means of computational simulation. For this, a multi phenomenological analysis and characterization are necessary to understand the various aspects involved in plastic deformation, namely the stress-strain relations and also the variations of electrical conductivity and magnetic permeability associated with the metallurgical changes due to plastic deformation. Aiming a complete mechanical-microstructural characterization, uniaxial tensile tests involving successive cycles of loading and unloading were performed, as well as biaxial tests such as the Erichsen test. Also, nondestructive evaluation comprising eddy currents to verify microstructural changes due to plastic deformation and ultrasonic tests to evaluate the local variations of thickness were made. The material parameters for the stable yield function and the monotonic strain hardening were obtained using uniaxial tension tests in different material directions and balanced biaxial tests. Both the decrease of the modulus of elasticity and Bauschinger effect were determined through the load-unload tensile tests. By means of the eddy currents tests, it was possible to verify changes in the magnetic permeability of the material according to the different plastically deformed areas. The ultrasonic tests were an important aid to quantify the local plastic extension. With these data, it is possible to parameterize the different models of kinematic hardening to better approximate the results obtained by simulation with the experimental results, which are fundamental for the springback prediction of the stamped parts.

Keywords: advanced high strength steel, Bauschinger effect, sheet metal forming, springback

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Authors: Meng Wang

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Historically, young members (children) in the society have been oppressed by adults through direct violent acts. Direct violence was evident in rampant child labor and child maltreatment cases. After acknowledging the rights of children from the United Nations, it is believed in public that children have been protected against direct physical violence. Nevertheless, at present, this paper argues from Foucauldian and disability study standpoints that similar to the old times, children are oppressed objects in the context of child play, which is constructed by adults to substitute direct violence in regulating children. Particularly, this paper suggests that on the one hand, preschool play is a new way that adults adopt to oppress preschoolers and regulate the society as a whole; on the other hand, preschoolers are taught how to play as an acquired skill and master self-regulation through play. There is a line of contemporary research that centers on child play from social constructivism perspective. Yet, current teaching practices pertaining to child play including guided child play and free play, in fact, serve the interest of adults and society at large. By acknowledging and deconstructing the prevalence of 'evidence-based best practice' in early childhood education field within western society, reconstruction of child-adult power relation could be achieved and alternative truth could be found in early childhood education. To support the argument of this paper, an on-going observational case study is conducted in a preschool setting in the United States. Age range of children is 2.5 to 4 years old. Approximately 10 children (5 boys) are participating in this case study. Observation is conducted throughout the weekdays as children follow through the classroom routine with a lead and an assistant teacher. Classroom teachers are interviewed pertaining to their classroom management strategies. Preliminary research finding of this case study suggested that preschool teachers tended to utilize scenarios from preschoolers’ dramatic play to impart core cultural values to young children. These values were pre-determined by adults. In addition, if young children have failed to follow teachers' guidance in terms of playing in a correct way, children ran the risk of being excluded from the play scenario by peers and adults. Furthermore, this study tended to indicate that through child play, preschoolers are obliged to develop an internal violence system, that is self-regulation skill to regulate their own behavior; and if this internal system is unestablished based on various assessments by adults, then potentially there will be consequences of negative labeling and disabling toward young children intended by adults. In conclusion, this paper applies Foucauldian analysis into the context of child play. At present, within preschool, child play is not free as it seems to be. Young children are expected to perform cultural tasks through their play activities designed by adults. Adults utilize child play as technologies of governmentality to further predict and regulate future society at large.

Keywords: child play, developmentally appropriate practice, DAP, poststructuralism, technologies of governmentality

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Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey

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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.

Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method

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Authors: Beatriz Rebocho, Elisabete Valente, Carla Palma, Andreia Guilherme, Filipa Bessa, Paula Sobral

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The global accumulation of plastic in the oceans is a growing problem. Plastic is transported from its source to the oceans via rivers, which are considered the main route for plastic particles from land-based sources to the ocean. These plastics undergo physical and chemical degradation resulting in microplastics. The i-Plastic project aims to understand and predict the dispersion, accumulation and impacts of microplastics (5 mm to 1 µm) and nano plastics (below 1 µm) in marine environments from the tropical and temperate land-ocean interface to the open ocean under distinct flow and climate regimes. Seasonal monitoring of the fluxes of microplastics was carried out in (three) coastal areas in Brazil, Portugal and Spain. The present work shows the first results of in-situ seasonal monitoring and mapping of microplastics in ocean waters between Ovar and Vieira de Leiria (Portugal), in which 43 surface water samples and 43 water column samples were collected in contrasting seasons (spring and autumn). The spring and autumn surface water samples were collected with a 300 µm and 150 µm pore neuston net, respectively. In both campaigns, water column samples were collected using a conical mesh with a 150 µm pore. The experimental procedure comprises the following steps: i) sieving by a metal sieve; ii) digestion with potassium hydroxide to remove the organic matter original from the sample matrix. After a filtration step, the content is retained on a membrane and observed under a stereomicroscope, and physical and chemical characterization (type, color, size, and polymer composition) of the microparticles is performed. Results showed that 84% and 88% of the surface water and water column samples were contaminated with microplastics, respectively. Surface water samples collected during the spring campaign averaged 0.35 MP.m-3, while surface water samples collected during autumn recorded 0.39 MP.m-3. Water column samples from the spring campaign had an average of 1.46 MP.m-3, while those from the autumn recorded 2.54 MP.m-3. In the spring, all microplastics found were fibers, predominantly black and blue. In autumn, the dominant particles found in the surface waters were fibers, while in the water column, fragments were dominant. In spring, the average size of surface water particles was 888 μm, while in the water column was 1063 μm. In autumn, the average size of surface and water column microplastics was 1333 μm and 1393 μm, respectively. The main polymers identified by Attenuated Total Reflectance (ATR) and micro-ATR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy from all samples were low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The significant difference between the microplastic concentration in the water column between the two campaigns could be due to the remixing of the water masses that occurred that week due to the occurrence of a storm. This work presents preliminary results since the i-Plastic project is still in progress. These results will contribute to the understanding of the spatial and temporal dispersion and accumulation of microplastics in this marine environment.

Keywords: microplastics, Portugal, Atlantic Ocean, water column, surface water

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Authors: Marlon Gallo, Eduardo Miguel, Laura Oca, Eneko Gonzalez, Unai Iraola

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The heat generation of an energy storage system is an essential topic when designing a battery pack and its cooling system. Heat generation estimation is used together with thermal models to predict battery temperature in operation and adapt the design of the battery pack and the cooling system to these thermal needs guaranteeing its safety and correct operation. In the present work, a comparison between the use of a heat flux sensor (HFS) for indirect measurement of heat losses in a cell and the widely used and simplified version of Bernardi’s equation for estimation is presented. First, a Li-ion cell is thermally characterized with an HFS to measure the thermal parameters that are used in a first-order lumped thermal model. These parameters are the equivalent thermal capacity and the thermal equivalent resistance of a single Li-ion cell. Static (when no current is flowing through the cell) and dynamic (making current flow through the cell) tests are conducted in which HFS is used to measure heat between the cell and the ambient, so thermal capacity and resistances respectively can be calculated. An experimental platform records current, voltage, ambient temperature, surface temperature, and HFS output voltage. Second, an equivalent circuit model is built in a Matlab-Simulink environment. This allows the comparison between the generated heat predicted by Bernardi’s equation and the HFS measurements. Data post-processing is required to extrapolate the heat generation from the HFS measurements, as the sensor records the heat released to the ambient and not the one generated within the cell. Finally, the cell temperature evolution is estimated with the lumped thermal model (using both HFS and Bernardi’s equation total heat generation) and compared towards experimental temperature data (measured with a T-type thermocouple). At the end of this work, a critical review of the results obtained and the possible mismatch reasons are reported. The results show that indirectly measuring the heat generation with HFS gives a more precise estimation than Bernardi’s simplified equation. On the one hand, when using Bernardi’s simplified equation, estimated heat generation differs from cell temperature measurements during charges at high current rates. Additionally, for low capacity cells where a small change in capacity has a great influence on the terminal voltage, the estimated heat generation shows high dependency on the State of Charge (SoC) estimation, and therefore open circuit voltage calculation (as it is SoC dependent). On the other hand, with indirect measuring the heat generation with HFS, the resulting error is a maximum of 0.28ºC in the temperature prediction, in contrast with 1.38ºC with Bernardi’s simplified equation. This illustrates the limitations of Bernardi’s simplified equation for applications where precise heat monitoring is required. For higher current rates, Bernardi’s equation estimates more heat generation and consequently, a higher predicted temperature. Bernardi´s equation accounts for no losses after cutting the charging or discharging current. However, HFS measurement shows that after cutting the current the cell continues generating heat for some time, increasing the error of Bernardi´s equation.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, heat flux sensor, heat generation, thermal characterization

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Authors: Elizabeth M. Annoni, Elena G. Tolkacheva

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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia that is a known prognostic marker for stroke, heart failure and death. Reentrant mechanisms of rotor formation, which are stable electrical sources of cardiac excitation, are believed to cause AF. No existing commercial mapping systems have been demonstrated to consistently and accurately predict rotor locations outside of the pulmonary veins in patients with persistent AF. There is a clear need for robust spatio-temporal techniques that can consistently identify rotors using unique characteristics of the electrical recordings at the pivot point that can be applied to clinical intracardiac mapping. Recently, we have developed four new signal analysis approaches – Shannon entropy (SE), Kurtosis (Kt), multi-scale frequency (MSF), and multi-scale entropy (MSE) – to identify the pivot points of rotors. These proposed techniques utilize different cardiac signal characteristics (other than local activation) to uncover the intrinsic complexity of the electrical activity in the rotors, which are not taken into account in current mapping methods. We validated these techniques using high-resolution optical mapping experiments in which direct visualization and identification of rotors in ex-vivo Langendorff-perfused hearts were possible. Episodes of ventricular tachycardia (VT) were induced using burst pacing, and two examples of rotors were used showing 3-sec episodes of a single stationary rotor and figure-8 reentry with one rotor being stationary and one meandering. Movies were captured at a rate of 600 frames per second for 3 sec. with 64x64 pixel resolution. These optical mapping movies were used to evaluate the performance and robustness of SE, Kt, MSF and MSE techniques with respect to the following clinical limitations: different time of recordings, different spatial resolution, and the presence of meandering rotors. To quantitatively compare the results, SE, Kt, MSF and MSE techniques were compared to the “true” rotor(s) identified using the phase map. Accuracy was calculated for each approach as the duration of the time series and spatial resolution were reduced. The time series duration was decreased from its original length of 3 sec, down to 2, 1, and 0.5 sec. The spatial resolution of the original VT episodes was decreased from 64x64 pixels to 32x32, 16x16, and 8x8 pixels by uniformly removing pixels from the optical mapping video.. Our results demonstrate that Kt, MSF and MSE were able to accurately identify the pivot point of the rotor under all three clinical limitations. The MSE approach demonstrated the best overall performance, but Kt was the best in identifying the pivot point of the meandering rotor. Artifacts mildly affect the performance of Kt, MSF and MSE techniques, but had a strong negative impact of the performance of SE. The results of our study motivate further validation of SE, Kt, MSF and MSE techniques using intra-atrial electrograms from paroxysmal and persistent AF patients to see if these approaches can identify pivot points in a clinical setting. More accurate rotor localization could significantly increase the efficacy of catheter ablation to treat AF, resulting in a higher success rate for single procedures.

Keywords: Atrial Fibrillation, Optical Mapping, Signal Processing, Rotors

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Authors: Zahide Tepeli Temiz, Itir Tari Comert

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Attachment patterns based on early emotional interactions between infant and primary caregiver continue to be influential in adult life, in terms of mental health and behaviors of individuals. Several studies reveal that infant-caregiver relationships have impressed the affect regulation, coping with stressful and negative situations, general satisfaction of life, and self image in adulthood, besides the attachment styles. The present study aims to examine the relationships between university students’ attachment style and their self-esteem, alexithymic features, satisfaction of life, and level of resilience. In line with this aim, the hypothesis of the prediction of attachment styles (anxious and avoidant) over life satisfaction, self-esteem, alexithymia, and psychological resilience was tested. Additionally, in this study Structural Equational Modeling was conducted to investigate the mediational role of self-esteem in the relationship between attachment styles and alexithymia, life satisfaction, and resilience. This model was examined with path analysis. The sample of the research consists of 425 university students who take education from several region of Turkey. The participants who sign the informed consent completed the Demographic Information Form, Experiences in Close Relationships-Revised, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, The Satisfaction with Life Scale, Toronto Alexithymia Scale, and Resilience Scale for Adults. According to results, anxious, and avoidant dimensions of insecure attachment predicted the self-esteem score and alexithymia in positive direction. On the other hand, these dimensions of attachment predicted life satisfaction in negative direction. The results of linear regression analysis indicated that anxious and avoidant attachment styles didn’t predict the resilience. This result doesn’t support the theory and research indicating the relationship between attachment style and psychological resilience. The results of path analysis revealed the mediational role self esteem in the relation between anxious, and avoidant attachment styles and life satisfaction. In addition, SEM analysis indicated the indirect effect of attachment styles over alexithymia and resilience besides their direct effect. These findings support the hypothesis of this research relation to mediating role of self-esteem. Attachment theorists suggest that early attachment experiences, including supportive and responsive family interactions, have an effect on resilience to harmful situations in adult life, ability to identify, describe, and regulate emotions and also general satisfaction with life. Several studies examining the relationship between attachment styles and life satisfaction, alexithymia, and psychological resilience draw attention to mediational role of self-esteem. Results of this study support the theory of attachment patterns with the mediation of self-image influence the emotional, cognitive, and behavioral regulation of person throughout the adulthood. Therefore, it is thought that any intervention intended for recovery in attachment relationship will increase the self-esteem, life satisfaction, and resilience level, on the one side, decrease the alexithymic features, on the other side.

Keywords: alexithymia, anxious attachment, avoidant attachment, life satisfaction, path analysis, resilience, self-esteem, structural equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

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In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

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Authors: Adrien Chatel, Ehsan Askari Mahvelati, Laurent Fitschy

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Once-Through-Steam-Generators are commonly used in the oil-sand industry in the heavy fuel oil extraction process. They are composed of three main parts: the burner, the radiant and convective sections. Natural gas is burned through staged diffusive flames stabilized by the burner. The heat generated by the combustion is transferred to the water flowing through the piping system in the radiant and convective sections. The steam produced within the pipes is then directed to the ground to reduce the oil viscosity and allow its pumping. With the rapid development of the oil-sand industry, the number of OTSG in operation has increased as well as the associated emissions of environmental pollutants, especially the Nitrous Oxides (NOₓ). To limit the environmental degradation, various international environmental agencies have established regulations on the pollutant discharge and pushed to reduce the NOₓ release. To meet these constraints, OTSG constructors have to rely on more and more advanced tools to study and predict the NOₓ emission. With the increase of the computational resources, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has emerged as a flexible tool to analyze the combustion and pollutant formation process. Moreover, to optimize the burner operating condition regarding the NOx emission, field characterization and measurements are usually accomplished. However, these kinds of experimental campaigns are particularly time-consuming and sometimes even impossible for industrial plants with strict operation schedule constraints. Therefore, the application of CFD seems to be more adequate in order to provide guidelines on the NOₓ emission and reduction problem. In the present work, two different software are employed to simulate the combustion process in an OTSG, namely the commercial software ANSYS Fluent and the open source software OpenFOAM. RANS (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) equations combined with the Eddy Dissipation Concept to model the combustion and closed by the k-epsilon model are solved. A mesh sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the independence of the solution on the mesh. In the first part, the results given by the two software are compared and confronted with experimental data as a mean to assess the numerical modelling. Flame temperatures and chemical composition are used as reference fields to perform this validation. Results show a fair agreement between experimental and numerical data. In the last part, OpenFOAM is employed to simulate several operating conditions, and an Emission Characteristic Map of the combustion system is generated. The sources of high NOₓ production inside the OTSG are pointed and correlated to the physics of the flow. CFD is, therefore, a useful tool for providing an insight into the NOₓ emission phenomena in OTSG. Sources of high NOₓ production can be identified, and operating conditions can be adjusted accordingly. With the help of RANS simulations, an Emission Characteristics Map can be produced and then be used as a guide for a field tune-up.

Keywords: combustion, computational fluid dynamics, nitrous oxides emission, once-through-steam-generators

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Authors: Meenu S. Babu, K. Jayasankara Reddy

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Depression is a serious mental health concern that leads to significant distress and dysfunction in an individual. Due to the high physical, psychological, social, and economic burden it causes, it is important to study various bio-psycho-social factors that influence the onset, course, duration, intensity of depressive symptoms. The study aims to explore relationship between autobiographical memory (AM) functions, perceived control over stressful events and depressive symptoms. AM functions and perceived control were both found to be protective factors for individuals against depression and were both modifiable to predict better behavioral and affective outcomes. An extensive review of literatur, with a systematic search on Google Scholar, JSTOR, Science Direct and Springer Journals database, was conducted for the purpose of this review paper. These were used for all the aforementioned databases. The time frame used for the search was 2010-2021. An additional search was conducted with no time bar to map the development of the theoretical concepts. The relevant studies with quantitative, qualitative, experimental, and quasi- experimental research designs were included for the review. Studies including a sample with a DSM- 5 or ICD-10 diagnosis of depressive disorders were excluded from the study to focus on the behavioral patterns in a non-clinical population. The synthesis of the findings that were obtained from the review indicates there is a significant relationship between cognitive variables of AM functions and perceived control and depressive symptoms. AM functions were found to be have significant effects on once sense of self, interpersonal relationships, decision making, self- continuity and were related to better emotion regulation and lower depressive symptoms. Not all the components of AM function were equally significant in their relationships with various depressive symptoms. While self and directive functions were more related to emotion regulation, anhedonia, motivation and hence mood and affect, the social function was related to perceived social support and social engagement. Perceived control was found to be another protective cognitive factor that provides individuals a sense of agency and control over one’s life outcomes which was found to be low in individuals with depression. This was also associated to the locus of control, competency beliefs, contingency beliefs and subjective well being in individuals and acted as protective factors against depressive symptoms. AM and perceived control over stressful events serve adaptive functions, hence it is imperative to study these variables more extensively. They can be imperative in planning and implementing therapeutic interventions to foster these cognitive protective factors to mitigate or alleviate depressive symptoms. Exploring AM as a determining factor in depressive symptoms along with perceived control over stress creates a bridge between biological and cognitive factors underlying depression and increases the scope of developing a more eclectic and effective treatment plan for individuals. As culture plays a crucial role in AM functions as well as certain aspects of control such as locus of control, it is necessary to study these variables keeping in mind the cultural context to tailor culture/community specific interventions for depression.

Keywords: autobiographical memories, autobiographical memory functions, perceived control, depressive symptoms, depression, young adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Julien Monnier, Isabelle Mouton, Francois Buy, Adrien Michel, Sylvain Ringeval, Joel Malaplate, Caroline Toffolon, Bernard Marini, Audrey Lechartier

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Chosen to design and assemble massive components for nuclear industry, the 316 Nb austenitic stainless steel (also called 316 Nb) suits well this function thanks to its mechanical, heat and corrosion handling properties. However, these properties might change during steel’s life due to thermal ageing causing changes within its microstructure. Our main purpose is to determine if the 316 Nb will keep its mechanical properties after an exposition to industrial temperatures (around 300 °C) during a long period of time (< 10 years). The 316 Nb is composed by different phases, which are austenite as main phase, niobium-carbides, and ferrite remaining from the ferrite to austenite transformation during the process. Our purpose is to understand thermal ageing effects on the material microstructure and properties and to submit a model predicting the evolution of 316 Nb properties as a function of temperature and time. To do so, based on Fe-Cr and 316 Nb phase diagrams, we studied the thermal ageing of 316 Nb steel alloys (1%v of ferrite) and welds (10%v of ferrite) for various temperatures (350, 400, and 450 °C) and ageing time (from 1 to 10.000 hours). Higher temperatures have been chosen to reduce thermal treatment time by exploiting a kinetic effect of temperature on 316 Nb ageing without modifying reaction mechanisms. Our results from early times of ageing show no effect on steel’s global properties linked to austenite stability, but an increase of ferrite hardness during thermal ageing has been observed. It has been shown that austenite’s crystalline structure (cfc) grants it a thermal stability, however, ferrite crystalline structure (bcc) favours iron-chromium demixion and formation of iron-rich and chromium-rich phases within ferrite. Observations of thermal ageing effects on ferrite’s microstructure were necessary to understand the changes caused by the thermal treatment. Analyses have been performed by using different techniques like Atomic Probe Tomography (APT) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). A demixion of alloy’s elements leading to formation of iron-rich (α phase, bcc structure), chromium-rich (α’ phase, bcc structure), and nickel-rich (fcc structure) phases within the ferrite have been observed and associated to the increase of ferrite’s hardness. APT results grant information about phases’ volume fraction and composition, allowing to associate hardness measurements to the volume fractions of the different phases and to set up a way to calculate α’ and nickel-rich particles’ growth rate depending on temperature. The same methodology has been applied to DSC results, which allowed us to measure the enthalpy of α’ phase dissolution between 500 and 600_°C. To resume, we started from mechanical and macroscopic measurements and explained the results through microstructural study. The data obtained has been match to CALPHAD models’ prediction and used to improve these calculations and employ them to predict 316 Nb properties’ change during the industrial process.

Keywords: stainless steel characterization, atom probe tomography APT, vickers hardness, differential scanning calorimetry DSC, thermal ageing

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Authors: Jasna Hrncic

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Poor family relations predict depression, but also to other mental health issues. Mediating effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self and moderating effect of decreased accessibility and/or success of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages could explain depression as a specific outcome of dysfunctional family relations. The present study analyzes the mediation effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms and the moderation effect of deprivation of liberty on the listed mediation effect. Deprivation of liberty has, as a general consequence, a decreased accessibility and/or success of many adaptive and defensive mechanisms. It is hypothesized that: 1) self-efficacy and differentiation of self will mediate between family functioning and depressiveness in the total sample, and 2) deprivation of liberty will moderate the stated relations. Cross-sectional study was conducted among 323 male juveniles in Serbia divided in three groups: 98 adolescents deprived of their liberty due to antisocial behavior (incarcerated antisocial group - IAG), 121 adolescents with antisocial behavior in their natural setting (antisocial control group - CAG) and 105 adolescents in general population (general control group - CGG). The CAG was included along with GCG to control the possible influence that comorbidity of antisocial behavior and depressiveness could have on results. Instruments for family relations assessment were: for a whole family of origin the emotional exchange scale and individuation scale from GRADIR by Knezevic, and for a relationship with mother PCS-YSR and CRPBI by barber, and intimacy, rejection, sacrifice, punishment, demands, control and internal control by Opacic and Kos. Differentiation of self (DOS) is measured by emotional self scale (Opacic), self-efficacy (SE) by general incompetence scale by Bezinovic, and depression by BDI (Back), CES-D (Radloff) and D6R (Momirovic). Two-path structural equation modeling based on most commonly reported fit indices, showed that the mediation model had unfavorable fit to our data for total sample [(χ2 (1, N = 324) = 13.73); RMSEA= .20 (90% CI= [.12, .30]); CFI= .98; NFI= .97; AIC=31.73]. Path model provided an adequate fit to the data only for AIG - and not to the data from ACG and GCG. SE and DOS mediated the relationship between PFF and depressiveness. Test of the indirect effects revealed that 23.85% of PFF influences on depressiveness is mediated by these two mediators (the quotient of mediated effect = .24). Test of specific indirect effects showed that SE mediates 22.17%, while DOS mediates 1.67% of PFF influence on depressiveness. Lack of expected mediation effect could be explained by missing other potential mediators (i.e., relationship with that father, social skills, self-esteem) and lower variability of both predictor and criterion variable due to their low levels on the whole sample and on control subsamples. Results suggested that inaccessibility and/or successfulness of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages has a strong impact on the mediation effect of self/efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms. Further researches could include other potential mediators and a sample of clinically depressed people.

Keywords: antisocial behavior, mediating effect, moderating effect, natural setting, incarceration

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Authors: Maryam Shahbazi, Amy B. Cerato

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The importance of a systems’ natural frequency (fn) emerges when the vibration force frequency is equivalent to foundation's fn which causes response amplitude (resonance) that may cause irreversible damage to the structure. Several factors such as pile geometry (e.g., length and diameter), soil density, load magnitude, pile condition, and physical structure affect the fn of a soil-pile system; some of these parameters are evaluated in this study. Although experimental and analytical studies have assessed the fn of a soil-pile system, few have included individual and grouped helical piles. Thus, the current study aims to provide quantitative data on dynamic characteristics of helical pile-soil systems from full-scale shake table tests that will allow engineers to predict more realistic dynamic response under motions with variable frequency ranges. To evaluate the fn of single and grouped helical piles in dry dense sand, full-scale shake table tests were conducted in a laminar box (6.7 m x 3.0 m with 4.6 m high). Two different diameters (8.8 cm and 14 cm) helical piles were embedded in the soil box with corresponding lengths of 3.66m (excluding one pile with length of 3.96) and 4.27m. Different configurations were implemented to evaluate conditions such as fixed and pinned connections. In the group configuration, all four piles with similar geometry were tied together. Simulated real earthquake motions, in addition to white noise, were applied to evaluate the wide range of soil-pile system behavior. The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of measured time history responses using installed strain gages and accelerometers were used to evaluate fn. Both time-history records using accelerometer or strain gages were found to be acceptable for calculating fn. In this study, the existence of a pile reduced the fn of the soil slightly. Greater fn occurred on single piles with larger l/d ratios (higher slenderness ratio). Also, regardless of the connection type, the more slender pile group which is obviously surrounded by more soil, yielded higher natural frequencies under white noise, which may be due to exhibiting more passive soil resistance around it. Relatively speaking, within both pile groups, a pinned connection led to a lower fn than a fixed connection (e.g., for the same pile group the fn’s are 5.23Hz and 4.65Hz for fixed and pinned connections, respectively). Generally speaking, a stronger motion causes nonlinear behavior and degrades stiffness which reduces a pile’s fn; even more, reduction occurs in soil with a lower density. Moreover, fn of dense sand under white noise signal was obtained 5.03 which is reduced by 44% when an earthquake with the acceleration of 0.5g was applied. By knowing the factors affecting fn, the designer can effectively match the properties of the soil to a type of pile and structure to attempt to avoid resonance. The quantitative results in this study assist engineers in predicting a probable range of fn for helical pile foundations under potential future earthquake, and machine loading applied forces.

Keywords: helical pile, natural frequency, pile group, shake table, stiffness

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Authors: Jyoti Sahu, Vinay A. Juvekar

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Electrolytes are often used to bring about salting-in and salting-out of organic molecules and polymers (e.g. polyethylene glycols/proteins) from the aqueous solutions. For quantification of these phenomena, a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict activity coefficient of electrolyte as a function of temperature is needed. The thermodynamics models available in the literature contain a large number of empirical parameters. These parameters are estimated using lower/upper critical solution temperature of the solution in the electrolyte/organic molecule at different temperatures. Since the number of parameters is large, inaccuracy can bethe creep in during their estimation, which can affect the reliability of prediction beyond the range in which these parameters are estimated. Cloud point of solution is related to its free energy through temperature and composition derivative. Hence, the Cloud point measurement can be used for accurate estimation of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters in the model for free energy. Hence, if we use a two pronged procedure in which we first use cloud point of solution to estimate some of the parameters of the thermodynamic model and determine the rest using osmotic coefficient data, we gain on two counts. First, since the parameters, estimated in each of the two steps, are fewer, we achieve higher accuracy of estimation. The second and more important gain is that the resulting model parameters are more sensitive to temperature. This is crucial when we wish to use the model outside temperatures window within which the parameter estimation is sought. The focus of the present work is to prove this proposition. We have used electrolyte (NaCl/Na2CO3)-water-organic molecule (Iso-propanol/ethanol) as the model system. The model of Robinson-Stokes-Glukauf is modified by incorporating the temperature dependent Flory-Huggins interaction parameters. The Helmholtz free energy expression contains, in addition to electrostatic and translational entropic contributions, three Flory-Huggins pairwise interaction contributions viz., and (w-water, p-polymer, s-salt). These parameters depend both on temperature and concentrations. The concentration dependence is expressed in the form of a quadratic expression involving the volume fractions of the interacting species. The temperature dependence is expressed in the form .To obtain the temperature-dependent interaction parameters for organic molecule-water and electrolyte-water systems, Critical solution temperature of electrolyte -water-organic molecules is measured using cloud point measuring apparatus The temperature and composition dependent interaction parameters for electrolyte-water-organic molecule are estimated through measurement of cloud point of solution. The model is used to estimate critical solution temperature (CST) of electrolyte water-organic molecules solution. We have experimentally determined the critical solution temperature of different compositions of electrolyte-water-organic molecule solution and compared the results with the estimates based on our model. The two sets of values show good agreement. On the other hand when only osmotic coefficients are used for estimation of the free energy model, CST predicted using the resulting model show poor agreement with the experiments. Thus, the importance of the CST data in the estimation of parameters of the thermodynamic model is confirmed through this work.

Keywords: concentrated electrolytes, Debye-Hückel theory, interaction parameters, Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf model, Flory-Huggins model, critical solution temperature

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Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

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To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

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Authors: Arturo Galvan, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Daniel Arroyo-Montoya, Jose M. Gutierrez-Villalobos

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Bridges are one of the most seismically vulnerable structures on highway transportation systems. The general process for assessing the seismic vulnerability of a bridge involves the evaluation of its overall capacity and demand. One of the most common procedures to obtain this capacity is by means of pushover analysis of the structure. Typically, the bridge capacity is assessed using non-linear static methods or non-linear dynamic analyses. The non-linear dynamic approaches use step by step numerical solutions for assessing the capacity with the consuming computer time inconvenience. In this study, a nonlinear static analysis (‘pushover analysis’) was performed to predict the collapse mechanism of a typical bridge built in the central zone of Mexico (Celaya, Guanajuato). The bridge superstructure consists of three simple supported spans with a total length of 76 m: 22 m of the length of extreme spans and 32 m of length of the central span. The deck width is of 14 m and the concrete slab depth is of 18 cm. The bridge is built by means of frames of five piers with hollow box-shaped sections. The dimensions of these piers are 7.05 m height and 1.20 m diameter. The numerical model was created using a commercial software considering linear and non-linear elements. In all cases, the piers were represented by frame type elements with geometrical properties obtained from the structural project and construction drawings of the bridge. The deck was modeled with a mesh of rectangular thin shell (plate bending and stretching) finite elements. The moment-curvature analysis was performed for the sections of the piers of the bridge considering in each pier the effect of confined concrete and its reinforcing steel. In this way, plastic hinges were defined on the base of the piers to carry out the pushover analysis. In addition, time history analyses were performed using 19 accelerograms of real earthquakes that have been registered in Guanajuato. In this way, the displacements produced by the bridge were determined. Finally, pushover analysis was applied through the control of displacements in the piers to obtain the overall capacity of the bridge before the failure occurs. It was concluded that the lateral deformation of the piers due to a critical earthquake occurred in this zone is almost imperceptible due to the geometry and reinforcement demanded by the current design standards and compared to its displacement capacity, they were excessive. According to the analysis, it was found that the frames built with five piers increase the rigidity in the transverse direction of the bridge. Hence it is proposed to reduce these frames of five piers to three piers, maintaining the same geometrical characteristics and the same reinforcement in each pier. Also, the mechanical properties of materials (concrete and reinforcing steel) were maintained. Once a pushover analysis was performed considering this configuration, it was concluded that the bridge would continue having a “correct” seismic behavior, at least for the 19 accelerograms considered in this study. In this way, costs in material, construction, time and labor would be reduced in this study case.

Keywords: collapse mechanism, moment-curvature analysis, overall capacity, push-over analysis

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Authors: Angela Oktavia Suryani, Bernadeth Gloria, Edwin Sutamto, Jessica Kristianty, Ni Made Rai Sapitri, Patricia Catherine Agla, Sitti Arlinda Rochiadi

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It was found that some blogs or personal websites in Indonesia sell standardized intelligence tests (for example, Progressive Matrices (PM), Intelligence Structure Test (IST), and Culture Fair Intelligence Test (CFIT)) and other psychological tests, together with the manual and the key answers for public. Individuals can buy and prepare themselves for selection or recruitment with the real test. This action drives people to lie to the institution (education or company) and also to themselves. It was also found that those tests are old. Some items are not relevant with the current context, for example a question about a diameter of a certain coin that does not exist anymore. These problems motivate us to develop a new intelligence battery test, namely of Multiple Aptitude Battery (MAB). The battery test was built by using Thurstone’s Primary Mental Abilities theory and intended to be used by high schools students, university students, and worker applicants. The battery tests consist of 9 subtests. In the current study we examine six subtests, namely Reading Comprehension, Verbal Analogies, Numerical Inductive Reasoning, Numerical Deductive Reasoning, Mechanical Ability, and Two Dimensional Spatial Reasoning for university students. The study included 1424 data from students recruited by convenience sampling from eight faculties at Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia. Classical and modern test approaches (Item Response Theory) were carried out to identify the item difficulties of the items and confirmatory factor analysis was applied to examine their internal validities. The validity of each subtest was inspected by using convergent–discriminant method, whereas the reliability was examined by implementing Kuder–Richardson formula. The result showed that the majority of the subtests were difficult in medium level, and there was only one subtest categorized as easy, namely Verbal Analogies. The items were found homogenous and valid measuring their constructs; however at the level of subtests, the construct validity examined by convergent-discriminant method indicated that the subtests were not unidimensional. It means they were not only measuring their own constructs but also other construct. Three of the subtests were able to predict academic performance with small effect size, namely Reading Comprehension, Numerical Inductive Reasoning, and Two Dimensional Spatial Reasoning. GPAs in intermediate level (GPAs at third semester and above) were considered as a factor for predictive invalidity. The Kuder-Richardson formula showed that the reliability coefficients for both numerical reasoning subtests and spatial reasoning were superior, in the range 0.84 – 0.87, whereas the reliability coefficient for the other three subtests were relatively below standard for ability test, in the range of 0.65 – 0.71. It can be concluded that some of the subtests are ready to be used, whereas some others are still need some revisions. This study also demonstrated that the convergent-discrimination method is useful to identify the general intelligence of human.

Keywords: intelligence, psychometric examination, multiple aptitude battery, university students

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Authors: Madan Chandra Maurya, A. R. Dar

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Among the entire natural calamities earthquake is the one which is most devastating. If the losses due to all other calamities are added still it will be very less than the losses due to earthquakes. So it means we must be ready to face such a situation, which is only possible if we make our structures earthquake resistant. A review of structural damages to the braced frame systems after several major earthquakes—including recent earthquakes—has identified some anticipated and unanticipated damage. This damage has prompted many engineers and researchers around the world to consider new approaches to improve the behavior of braced frame systems. Extensive experimental studies over the last fourty years of conventional buckling brace components and several braced frame specimens have been briefly reviewed, highlighting that the number of studies on the full-scale concentric braced frames is still limited. So for this reason the study surrounds the words plastic behavior, steel structure, brace frame system. In this study, there are two different analytical approaches which have been used to predict the behavior and strength of an un-braced frame. The first is referred as incremental elasto-plastic analysis a plastic approach. This method gives a complete load-deflection history of the structure until collapse. It is based on the plastic hinge concept for fully plastic cross sections in a structure under increasing proportional loading. In this, the incremental elasto-plastic analysis- hinge by hinge method is used in this study because of its simplicity to know the complete load- deformation history of two storey un-braced scaled model. After that the experiments were conducted on two storey scaled building model with and without bracing system to know the true or experimental load deformation curve of scaled model. Only way, is to understand and analyze these techniques and adopt these techniques in our structures. The study named as Plastic Behavior of Steel Frames using Different Concentric Bracing Configurations deals with all this. This study aimed at improving the already practiced traditional systems and to check the behavior and its usefulness with respect to X-braced system as reference model i.e. is how plastically it is different from X-braced. Laboratory tests involved determination of plastic behavior of these models (with and without brace) in terms of load-deformation curve. Thus, the aim of this study is to improve the lateral displacement resistance capacity by using new configuration of brace member in concentric manner which is different from conventional concentric brace. Once the experimental and manual results (using plastic approach) compared, simultaneously the results from both approach were also compared with nonlinear static analysis (pushover analysis) approach using ETABS i.e how both the previous results closely depicts the behavior in pushover curve and upto what limit. Tests results shows that all the three approaches behaves somewhat in similar manner upto yield point and also the applicability of elasto-plastic analysis (hinge by hinge method) to know the plastic behavior. Finally the outcome from three approaches shows that the newer one configuration which is chosen for study behaves in-between the plane frame (without brace or reference frame) and the conventional X-brace frame.

Keywords: elasto-plastic analysis, concentric steel braced frame, pushover analysis, ETABS

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Prescilla Lambert, Christophe Roos, Mounim Lebrini

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For several years, the Caribbean islands and West Africa have had to deal with the massive arrival of the brown seaweed Sargassum. Overall, this macroalgae, which constitutes a habitat for a great diversity of marine organisms, is also an additional stress factor for the marine environment (e.g., coral reefs). In addition, the accumulation followed by the significant decomposition of the Sargassum spp. biomass on the coast leads to the release of toxic gases (H₂S and NH₃), which calls into question the functioning of the economic, health and tourist life of the island and the other interested territories. Originally, these algae are formed by the eutrophication of the oceans accentuated by global warming. Unfortunately, scientists predict a significant recurrence of these Sargassum strandings for years to come. It is therefore more than necessary to find solutions by putting in place a sustainable management plan for this phenomenon. Martinique, a small island in the Caribbean arc, is one of the many areas impacted by Sargassum seaweed strandings. Since 2011, there has been a constant increase in the degradation of the materials present in this region, largely due to toxic/corrosive gases released by the algae decomposition. In order to protect the structures and the vulnerable building materials while limiting the use of synthetic/petroleum based molecules as much as possible, research is being conducted on molecules of natural origin. Thus, thanks to the chemical composition, which comprise molecules with interesting properties, algae such as Sargassum could potentially help to solve many issues. Therefore, this study focuses on the green extraction and characterization of molecules from the species Sargassum fluitans and Sargassum natans present in Martinique. The secondary metabolites found in these extracts showed variability in yield rates due to local climatic conditions. The tests carried out shed light on the anticorrosive and antibacterial potential of the algae. These extracts can thus be described as natural inhibitors. The effect of variation in inhibitor concentrations was tested in electrochemistry using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves. The analysis of electrochemical results obtained by direct immersion in the extracts and self-assembled molecular layers (SAMs) for Sargassum fluitans III, Sargassum natans I and VIII species was conclusive in acid and alkaline environments. The excellent results obtained reveal an inhibitory efficacy of 88% at 50mg/L for the crude extract of Sargassum fluitans III and efficacies greater than 97% for the chemical families of Sargassum fluitans III. Similarly, microbiological tests also suggest a bactericidal character. Results for Sargassum fluitans III crude extract show a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 0.005 mg/mL on Gram-negative bacteria and a MIC greater than 0.6 mg/mL on Gram-positive bacteria. These results make it possible to consider the management of local and international issues while valuing a biomass rich in biodegradable molecules. The next step in this study will therefore be the evaluation of the toxicity of Sargassum spp..

Keywords: Sargassum, secondary metabolites, anticorrosive, antibacterial, natural inhibitors

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Authors: Akeel A. Shah, Tong Zhang

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Computational approaches to learning the properties of materials are commonplace, motivated by the need to screen or design materials for a given application, e.g., semiconductors and energy storage. Experimental approaches can be both time consuming and costly. Unfortunately, computational approaches such as ab-initio electronic structure calculations and classical or ab-initio molecular dynamics are themselves can be too slow for the rapid evaluation of materials, often involving thousands to hundreds of thousands of candidates. Machine learning assisted approaches have been developed to overcome the time limitations of purely physics-based approaches. These approaches, on the other hand, require large volumes of data for training (hundreds of thousands on many standard data sets such as QM7b). This means that they are limited by how quickly such a large data set of physics-based simulations can be established. At high fidelity, such as configuration interaction, composite methods such as G4, and coupled cluster theory, gathering such a large data set can become infeasible, which can compromise the accuracy of the predictions - many applications require high accuracy, for example band structures and energy levels in semiconductor materials and the energetics of charge transfer in energy storage materials. In order to circumvent this problem, multi-fidelity approaches can be adopted, for example the Δ-ML method, which learns a high-fidelity output from a low-fidelity result such as Hartree-Fock or density functional theory (DFT). The general strategy is to learn a map between the low and high fidelity outputs, so that the high-fidelity output is obtained a simple sum of the physics-based low-fidelity and correction, Although this requires a low-fidelity calculation, it typically requires far fewer high-fidelity results to learn the correction map, and furthermore, the low-fidelity result, such as Hartree-Fock or semi-empirical ZINDO, is typically quick to obtain, For high-fidelity outputs the result can be an order of magnitude or more in speed up. In this work, a new multi-fidelity approach is developed, based on a graph convolutional network (GCN) combined with semi-supervised learning. The GCN allows for the material or molecule to be represented as a graph, which is known to improve accuracy, for example SchNet and MEGNET. The graph incorporates information regarding the numbers of, types and properties of atoms; the types of bonds; and bond angles. They key to the accuracy in multi-fidelity methods, however, is the incorporation of low-fidelity output to learn the high-fidelity equivalent, in this case by learning their difference. Semi-supervised learning is employed to allow for different numbers of low and high-fidelity training points, by using an additional GCN-based low-fidelity map to predict high fidelity outputs. It is shown on 4 different data sets that a significant (at least one order of magnitude) increase in accuracy is obtained, using one to two orders of magnitude fewer low and high fidelity training points. One of the data sets is developed in this work, pertaining to 1000 simulations of quinone molecules (up to 24 atoms) at 5 different levels of fidelity, furnishing the energy, dipole moment and HOMO/LUMO.

Keywords: .materials screening, computational materials, machine learning, multi-fidelity, graph convolutional network, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

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