Search results for: condition assessment and rating
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9735

Search results for: condition assessment and rating

7485 Comparing Groundwater Fluoride Level with WHO Guidelines and Classifying At-Risk Age Groups; Based on Health Risk Assessment

Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Kamyar Yaghmaeian, Ali Arab Aradani, Mahmood Alimohammadi

Abstract:

The main route of fluoride uptake is drinking water. Fluoride absorption in the acceptable range (0.5-1.5 mg L-¹) is suitable for the body, but it's too much consumption can have irreversible health effects. To compare fluoride concentration with the WHO guidelines, 112 water samples were taken from groundwater aquifers in 22 villages of Garmsar County, the central part of Iran, during 2018 to 2019.Fluoride concentration was measured by the SPANDS method, and its non-carcinogenic impacts were calculated using EDI and HQ. The statistical population was divided into four categories of infant, children, teenagers, and adults. Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation coefficient tests were used to investigate the relationships between the well's depth and fluoride concentration in the water samples. The annual mean concentrations of fluoride in 2018 and2019 were 0.75 and 0.64 mg -¹ and, the fluoride mean concentration in the samples classifying the cold and hot seasons of the studied years was 0.709 and 0.689 mg L-¹, respectively. The amount of fluoride in 27% of the samples in both years was less than the acceptable minimum (0.5 mg L-¹). Also, 11% of the samples in2018 (6 samples) had fluoride levels higher than 1.5 mg L-¹. The HQ showed that the children were vulnerable; teenagers and adults were in the next ranks, respectively. Statistical tests showed a reverse and significant correlation (R2 = 0.02, < 0.0001) between well depth and fluoride content. The border between the usefulness/harmfulness of fluoride is very narrow and requires extensive studies.

Keywords: fluoride, groundwater, health risk assessment, hazard quotient, Garmsar

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7484 Reliability Assessment for Tie Line Capacity Assistance of Power Systems Based on Multi-Agent System

Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

Abstract:

Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0-25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices.

Keywords: reliability indices, load expectation, reserve margin, daily load, probability, multi-agent system

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7483 Long-Term Resilience Performance Assessment of Dual and Singular Water Distribution Infrastructures Using a Complex Systems Approach

Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

Abstract:

Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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7482 When and How Do Individuals Transition from Regular Drug Use to Injection Drug Use in Uganda? Findings from a Rapid Assessment

Authors: Stanely Nsubuga

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Background In Uganda, injection drug use is a growing but less studied problem. Preventing the transition to injection drug use may help prevent blood-borne viral transmission, but little is known about when and how people transition to injection drug use. A greater understanding of this transition process may aid in the country’s efforts to prevent the continued growth of injection drug use, HIV, and hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID). Methods Using a rapid situation assessment framework, we conducted semi-structured interviews among 125 PWID (102 males and 23 females)—recruited through outreach and snow-ball sampling. Participants were interviewed about their experiences on when and how they transitioned into injection drug use and these issues were also discussed in 12 focus groups held with the participants. Results All the study participants started their drug use career with non-injecting forms including chewing, smoking, and sniffing before transitioning to injecting. Transitioning was generally described as a peer-driven and socially learnt behavior. The participants’ social networks and accessibility to injectable drugs on the market and among close friends influenced the time lag between first regular drug use and first injecting—which took an average of 4.5 years. By the age of 24, at least 81.6% (95.7% for females and 78.4% for males) had transitioned into injecting. Over 84.8% shared injecting equipment during their first injection, 47.2% started injecting because a close friend was already injecting, 26.4% desired to achieve a greater “high” (26.4%) which could reflect drug-tolerance, and 12% out of curiosity.

Keywords: People who Use Drugs, transition, injection drug use, Uganda

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7481 The Leadership Criterion: Challenges in Pursuing Excellence in the Jordanian Public Sector

Authors: Shaker Aladwan, Paul Forrester

Abstract:

This paper explores the challenges that face leaders when implementing business excellence programmes in the Jordanian public sector. The study adopted a content analysis approach to analyse the excellence assessment reports that have been produced by the King Abdullah II Centre for Excellence (KACE). The sample comprises ten public organisations which have participated in the King Abdullah Award for Excellence (KAA) more than once and acknowledge in their reports that they have failed to achieve satisfactory results. The key challenges to the implementation of leadership criteria in the public sector in Jordan were found to be poor strategic planning, lack of employee empowerment, weaknesses in benchmarking performance, a lack of financial resources, poor integration and coordination, and poor measurement system: This study proposes a conceptual model for the as assessment of challenges that face managers when seeking to implement excellence in leadership in the Jordanian public sector. Theoretically, this paper fills context gaps in the excellence literature in general and organisational excellence in the public sector in particular. Leadership challenges in the public sector are generally widely studied, but it is important to gain a better understanding of how these challenges can be overcome. In comparison to many existing studies, this research has provided specific and detailed insights these organisational excellence challenges in the public sector and provides a conceptual model for use by other researchers into the future.

Keywords: leadership criterion, organisational excellence, challenges, quality awards, public sector, Jordan

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7480 A Framework for Designing Complex Product-Service Systems with a Multi-Domain Matrix

Authors: Yoonjung An, Yongtae Park

Abstract:

Offering a Product-Service System (PSS) is a well-accepted strategy that companies may adopt to provide a set of systemic solutions to customers. PSSs were initially provided in a simple form but now take diversified and complex forms involving multiple services, products and technologies. With the growing interest in the PSS, frameworks for the PSS development have been introduced by many researchers. However, most of the existing frameworks fail to examine various relations existing in a complex PSS. Since designing a complex PSS involves full integration of multiple products and services, it is essential to identify not only product-service relations but also product-product/ service-service relations. It is also equally important to specify how they are related for better understanding of the system. Moreover, as customers tend to view their purchase from a more holistic perspective, a PSS should be developed based on the whole system’s requirements, rather than focusing only on the product requirements or service requirements. Thus, we propose a framework to develop a complex PSS that is coordinated fully with the requirements of both worlds. Specifically, our approach adopts a multi-domain matrix (MDM). A MDM identifies not only inter-domain relations but also intra-domain relations so that it helps to design a PSS that includes highly desired and closely related core functions/ features. Also, various dependency types and rating schemes proposed in our approach would help the integration process.

Keywords: inter-domain relations, intra-domain relations, multi-domain matrix, product-service system design

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7479 Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Chronic Infection on Quality of Life in Egypt

Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Ghada A. Abdel-Latif, Walaa A. Fouad, Thanaa M. Rabah, Amira Mohsen, Fatma A. Shaaban, Iman I. Salama

Abstract:

The study aimed at determining the impact of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection on patients’ Quality of Life (QoL) , its relation to geographical characteristics of patients, awareness of the disease, treatment regimen, co-morbid psychiatric or other diseases. 457 patients were randomly selected from ten National Treatment Reference Centers of Ministry of Health hospitals from four community locations representing Egypt. Health related QoL assessment questionnaire with the 36-item Short Form used for assessment of the enrolled patients. The study showed no significant difference between HCV patients in different governorates as regards total QoL. Females, illiterate patients and those had bilharziasis, diabetes mellitus, hypertension or were depressed had significantly the lowest QoL score. HCV patients who knew the danger of the disease had significant lower mean score of physical and mental health components. Optimal care of overall well-being of HCV patients requires adequate knowledge of their neurological and psychological status. It is important to know that any patient will need to take the time to know that his new physical limitations do not limit him as a person, as soul, no matter what other people are thinking as a positive hopeful attitude is essential for combating HCV.

Keywords: hepatitis C virus chronic infection - physical health component and mental health component of QoL– total quality of life

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7478 Assessment of Analytical Equations for the Derivation of Young’s Modulus of Bonded Rubber Materials

Authors: Z. N. Haji, S. O. Oyadiji, H. Samami, O. Farrell

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The prediction of the vibration response of rubber products by analytical or numerical method depends mainly on the predefined intrinsic material properties such as Young’s modulus, damping factor and Poisson’s ratio. Such intrinsic properties are determined experimentally by subjecting a bonded rubber sample to compression tests. The compression tests on such a sample yield an apparent Young’s modulus which is greater in magnitude than the intrinsic Young’s modulus of the rubber. As a result, many analytical equations have been developed to determine Young’s modulus from an apparent Young’s modulus of bonded rubber materials. In this work, the applicability of some of these analytical equations is assessed via experimental testing. The assessment is based on testing of vulcanized nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR70) samples using tensile test and compression test methods. The analytical equations are used to determine the intrinsic Young’s modulus from the apparent modulus that is derived from the compression test data of the bonded rubber samples. Then, these Young’s moduli are compared with the actual Young’s modulus that is derived from the tensile test data. The results show significant discrepancy between the Young’s modulus derived using the analytical equations and the actual Young’s modulus.

Keywords: bonded rubber, quasi-static test, shape factor, apparent Young’s modulus

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7477 Course Outcomes to Programme Outcomes Mapping: A Methodology Based on Key Elements

Authors: Twarakavi Venkata Suresh Kumar, Sailaja Kumar, B. Eswara Reddy

Abstract:

In a world of tremendous technical developments, effective and efficient higher education has always been a major challenge. The rising number of educational institutions have made it mandatory for healthy competitions among the institutions. To evaluate the qualitative competence of these educations institutions in engineering and technology and related disciplines, an efficient assessment technique in internal and external quality has to be followed. To achieve this, the curriculum is to be developed into courses, and each course has to be presented in the form teaching lesson plan consisting of topics and session outcome known as Course Outcomes (COs), that easily map into different Programme Outcomes (POs). The major objective of these methodologies is to provide quality technical education to its students. Detailed clear weightage in CO-PO mapping helps in proper measurable COs and to devise the POs attainment is an important issue. This ensures in assisting the achievement of the POs with proper weightage to POs, and also improves the successive curriculum development. In this paper, we presented a methodology for mapping CO and PO considering the key elements supported by each PO. This approach is useful in evaluating the attainment of POs which is based on the attainment of COs using the existing data from students' marks taken from various test items. Such direct assessment tools are used to measure the degree to which each student has achieved each course learning outcome by the completion of the course. Hence, these results are also useful in measuring the PO attainment for improving the programme vision and mission.

Keywords: attainment, course outcomes, programme outcomes, educational institutions

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7476 Application of ANN for Estimation of Power Demand of Villages in Sulaymaniyah Governorate

Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

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Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification

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7475 Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV

Authors: Joyce K. Anastasi, Bernadette Capili

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Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV Our research team focuses on developing and testing protocols to manage chronic symptoms. For many years, our team designed and implemented symptom management studies for people living with HIV (PLWH). We identify symptoms that are not curative and are not adequately controlled by conventional therapies. As an exemplar, we describe how we successfully engaged PLWH in developing and refining our research feasibility protocol for distal sensory peripheral neuropathy (DSP) associated with HIV. With input from PLWH with DSP, our research received National Institutes of Health (NIH) research funding support. Significance: DSP is one of the most common neurologic complications in HIV. It is estimated that DSP affects 21% to 50% of PLWH. The pathogenesis of DSP in HIV is complex and unclear. Proposed mechanisms include cytokine dysregulation, viral protein-produced neurotoxicity, and mitochondrial dysfunction associated with antiretroviral medications. There are no FDA-approved treatments for DSP in HIV. Purpose: Aims: 1) to explore the impact of DSP on the lives of PLWH, 2) to identify patients’ perspectives on successful treatments for DSP, 3) to identify interventions considered feasible and sensitive to the needs of PLWH with DSP, and 4) to obtain participant input for protocol/study design. Description of Process: We conducted a needs assessment with PLWH with DSP. From our needs assessment, we learned from the patients’ perspective detailed descriptions of their symptoms; physical functioning with DSP; self-care remedies tried, and desired interventions. We also asked about protocol scheduling, instrument clarity, study compensation, study-related burdens, and willingness to participate in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a placebo and a waitlist group. Implications: We incorporated many of the suggestions learned from the need assessment. We developed and completed a feasibility study that provided us with invaluable information that informed subsequent NIH-funded studies. In addition to our extensive clinical and research experience working with PLWH, learning from the patient perspective helped in developing our protocol and promoting a successful plan for recruitment and retention of study participants.

Keywords: clinical trial development, peripheral neuropathy, traditional medicine, HIV, AIDS

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7474 Mindfulness, Reinvestment, and Rowing under Pressure: Evidence for Moderated Moderation of the Anxiety-Performance Relationship

Authors: Katherine Sparks, Christopher Ring

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This study aimed to investigate whether dispositional sport-specific mindfulness moderated the moderation effect of conscious processing on the relationship between anxiety and rowing race performance. Using a sport-specific (Rowing-Specific) Reinvestment Scale (RSRS) to measure state conscious processing, we examined the effects of trait sport-related mindfulness on the conscious processes of rowers under competitive racing pressure at a number of UK regattas. 276 rowers completed a survey post competitive race. The survey included the RSRS, mindfulness, a perceived performance rating scale, demographic and race information to identify and record the rower’s actual race performance. Results from the research demonstrated that high levels of dispositional mindfulness are associated with a superior performance under pressure. In relation to the moderating moderation effect, conscious processing amplifies the detrimental effects of anxiety on performance. However, mindfulness, mindful awareness, and mindful non-judgement all proved to attenuate this amplification effect by moderating the conscious processing moderation on the anxiety-performance relationship. Therefore, this study provides initial support for the speculation that dispositional mindfulness can help prevent the deleterious effects of rowing-specific reinvestment under pressure.

Keywords: mindful, reinvestment, under pressure, performance, rowing

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7473 Design of Fuzzy Logic Based Global Power System Stabilizer for Dynamic Stability Enhancement in Multi-Machine Power System

Authors: N. P. Patidar, J. Earnest, Laxmikant Nagar, Akshay Sharma

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This paper describes the diligence of a new input signal based fuzzy power system stabilizer in multi-machine power system. Instead of conventional input pairs like speed deviation (∆ω) and derivative of speed deviation i.e. acceleration (∆ω ̇) or speed deviation and accelerating power deviation of each machine, in this paper, deviation of active power through the tie line colligating two areas is used as one of the inputs to the fuzzy logic controller in concurrence with the speed deviation. Fuzzy Logic has the features of simple concept, easy effectuation, and computationally efficient. The advantage of this input is that, the same signal can be fed to each of the fuzzy logic controller connected with each machine. The simulated system comprises of two fully symmetrical areas coupled together by two 230 kV lines. Each area is equipped with two superposable generators rated 20 kV/900MVA and area-1 is exporting 413 MW to area-2. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme has been assessed by performing small signal stability assessment and transient stability assessment. The proposed control scheme has been compared with a conventional PSS. Digital simulation is used to demonstrate the performance of fuzzy logic controller.

Keywords: Power System Stabilizer (PSS), small signal stability, inter-area oscillation, fuzzy logic controller, membership function, rule base

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7472 Advances and Challenges in Assessing Students’ Learning Competencies in 21st Century Higher Education

Authors: O. Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, J. Fischer, C. Lautenbach, H. A. Pant

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In 21st century higher education (HE), the diversity among students has increased in recent years due to the internationalization and higher mobility. Offering and providing equal and fair opportunities based on students’ individual skills and abilities instead of their social or cultural background is one of the major aims of HE. In this context, valid, objective and transparent assessments of students’ preconditions and academic competencies in HE are required. However, as analyses of the current states of research and practice show, a substantial research gap on assessment practices in HE still exists, calling for the development of effective solutions. These demands lead to significant conceptual and methodological challenges. Funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the research program 'Modeling and Measuring Competencies in Higher Education – Validation and Methodological Challenges' (KoKoHs) focusses on addressing these challenges in HE assessment practice by modeling and validating objective test instruments. Including 16 cross-university collaborative projects, the German-wide research program contributes to bridging the research gap in current assessment research and practice by concentrating on practical and policy-related challenges of assessment in HE. In this paper, we present a differentiated overview of existing assessments of HE at the national and international level. Based on the state of research, we describe the theoretical and conceptual framework of the KoKoHs Program as well as results of the validation studies, including their key outcomes. More precisely, this includes an insight into more than 40 developed assessments covering a broad range of transparent and objective methods for validly measuring domain-specific and generic knowledge and skills for five major study areas (Economics, Social Science, Teacher Education, Medicine and Psychology). Computer-, video- and simulation-based instruments have been applied and validated to measure over 20,000 students at the beginning, middle and end of their (bachelor and master) studies at more than 300 HE institutions throughout Germany or during their practical training phase, traineeship or occupation. Focussing on the validity of the assessments, all test instruments have been analyzed comprehensively, using a broad range of methods and observing the validity criteria of the Standards for Psychological and Educational Testing developed by the American Educational Research Association, the American Economic Association and the National Council on Measurement. The results of the developed assessments presented in this paper, provide valuable outcomes to predict students’ skills and abilities at the beginning and the end of their studies as well as their learning development and performance. This allows for a differentiated view of the diversity among students. Based on the given research results practical implications and recommendations are formulated. In particular, appropriate and effective learning opportunities for students can be created to support the learning development of students, promote their individual potential and reduce knowledge and skill gaps. Overall, the presented research on competency assessment is highly relevant to national and international HE practice.

Keywords: 21st century skills, academic competencies, innovative assessments, KoKoHs

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7471 Design of Dry Chemical Fire Extinguisher Inspection Equipment in Order to Reduce Ergonomic Risks for Fire Extinguisher Inspectors

Authors: Sitrapee Changmuenwai, Sudaratana Wongweragiat

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It is important that a dry chemical fire extinguisher must be inspected for its readiness. For each inspection, the inspectors need to turn the fire extinguisher tank upside down to let the chemical inside the tank move and prevent solidification, which would make the tank not ready for usage when needed. Each tank weighs approximately 16 kg. The inspectors have to turn each tank upside down twice (2 minutes/round). They need to put the tanks over their shoulder close to their ear in order to hear the chemical flow inside the tank or use their hands to feel it. The survey and questionnaire 'The Questionnaire Know Body', which includes neck, left shoulder, upper and lower right arms suggest that all 12 security staffs have the same fatigues. The current dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection affects various ergonomic health problems. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) is used for evaluation of posture risks so that the working postures may be redesigned or corrected. The dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection equipment has been developed to reduce ergonomic health risks for the inspectors. A REBA analysis has been performed again, and the risk score has been decreased from 13 to 3. In addition, feedbacks from the first trial of the developed equipment show that there are demands to increase the installation in order to reduce the ergonomic health risks.

Keywords: dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection equipment, ergonomic, REBA, rapid entire body assessment

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7470 Multi-Objective Evolutionary Computation Based Feature Selection Applied to Behaviour Assessment of Children

Authors: F. Jiménez, R. Jódar, M. Martín, G. Sánchez, G. Sciavicco

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Abstract—Attribute or feature selection is one of the basic strategies to improve the performances of data classification tasks, and, at the same time, to reduce the complexity of classifiers, and it is a particularly fundamental one when the number of attributes is relatively high. Its application to unsupervised classification is restricted to a limited number of experiments in the literature. Evolutionary computation has already proven itself to be a very effective choice to consistently reduce the number of attributes towards a better classification rate and a simpler semantic interpretation of the inferred classifiers. We present a feature selection wrapper model composed by a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the clustering method Expectation-Maximization (EM), and the classifier C4.5 for the unsupervised classification of data extracted from a psychological test named BASC-II (Behavior Assessment System for Children - II ed.) with two objectives: Maximizing the likelihood of the clustering model and maximizing the accuracy of the obtained classifier. We present a methodology to integrate feature selection for unsupervised classification, model evaluation, decision making (to choose the most satisfactory model according to a a posteriori process in a multi-objective context), and testing. We compare the performance of the classifier obtained by the multi-objective evolutionary algorithms ENORA and NSGA-II, and the best solution is then validated by the psychologists that collected the data.

Keywords: evolutionary computation, feature selection, classification, clustering

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7469 The Association of Smoking and Body Mass Index with Acne Vulgaris in Adolescents and Young Adults

Authors: Almutazballlah Qablan, Jihan M. Muhaidat, Bana Abu Rajab

Abstract:

Background: Acne vulgaris is the most common skin condition that general practitioners and dermatologists encounter. It represents a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the pilosebaceous unit. Although acne vulgaris is not a life-threatening condition, it has a considerable psychological impact on the affected person. Acne patients have poor body image, low self-esteem, social isolation, and restricted activities. As part of the emotional impact, increased levels of anxiety, anger, depression, and frustration have also been observed in acne patients. (1) In this study, we want to assess the association between two modifiable risk factors; BMI and smoking, regarding acne vulgaris. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at King Abdullah University Hospital in Irbid, north Jordan in 2019/2020. A total number of 163 Acne cases were collected and interviewed by the author; on the other hand, there were 162 control cases. Anthropometric measures for Acne patients and control individuals were taken, and BMI was calculated. Both groups were asked about smoking habits. Data on subjects between 14 and 33 years of age were extracted. The characteristics of people who reported acne were compared with those with no acne using univariate and multivariate analysis. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was relied on to analyze the collected data. The crosstabs methods (chi-square) and odd ratios were relied on to test the study hypothesis. Results: Cigarette smoking was highly associated with no-acne, with an odds ratio of 0.4 (95% CI: 0.2–0.9), P-value = 0.018. BMI and waterpipe smoking were not significantly associated with acne in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Cigarette smoking was found to be protective from Acne. No significant relation between BMI nor waterpipe smoking and the development of Acne Vulgaris.

Keywords: acne, BMI, smoking, case-control

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7468 Analysis of Noise Environment and Acoustics Material in Residential Building

Authors: Heruanda Alviana Giska Barabah, Hilda Rasnia Hapsari

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Acoustic phenomena create an acoustic interpretation condition that describes the characteristics of the environment. In urban areas, the tendency of heterogeneous and simultaneous human activity form a soundscape that is different from other regions, one of the characteristics of urban areas that developing the soundscape is the presence of vertical model houses or residential building. Activities both within the building and surrounding environment are able to make the soundscape with certain characteristics. The acoustics comfort of residential building becomes an important aspect, those demand lead the building features become more diverse. Initial steps in mapping acoustic conditions in a soundscape are important, this is the method to determine uncomfortable condition. Noise generated by road traffic, railway, and plane is an important consideration, especially for urban people, therefore the proper design of the building becomes very important as an effort to bring appropriate acoustics comfort. In this paper the authors developed noise mapping on the location of the residential building. Mapping done by taking some point referring to the noise source. The mapping result become the basis for modeling the acoustics wave interacted with the building model. Material selection is done based on literature study and modeling simulation using Insul by considering the absorption coefficient and Sound Transmission Class. The analysis of acoustics rays is ray tracing method using Comsol simulator software that can show the movement of acoustics rays and their interaction with a boundary. The result of this study can be used to consider boundary material in residential building as well as consideration for improving the acoustic quality in the acoustics zones that are formed.

Keywords: residential building, noise, absorption coefficient, sound transmission class, ray tracing

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7467 Assessment of Spatial and Vertical Distribution of Heavy Metals in the Mid Sand Bars of Brahmaputra River in Assam, India

Authors: Vijay Meena, Arup Kumar Sarma, Chandan Mahanta

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The environment has been getting contaminated by anthropogenic processes including those that discharge heavy metals to air, soil and water. The present work emphasizes the spatial distribution and vertical profile of six heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Mn, Ni, Fe, Cr) in three layers of mid sand bars (bed surface layer, 50 cm and 100 cm depth) at 42 sampling stations covering around 600 km stretch of the Brahmaputra River, India. Heavy metal analysis was conducted on the sample collected from mid-sand bars in the river stretch to examine the impact of dredging for various hydrological operations in the future. Sediment quality was assessed by calculating six different indices viz., EF, CF, CD, PLI, Igeo, and PERI. In all sediment layers, heavy metal concentrations have been observed to be the same as listed, Fe > Mn > Zn > Ni > Cr > Cu in μg/g. The average concentration of Cu, Mn, and Fe was found in the middle layer while Zn, Ni, and Cr were in the Surface layer. EF indicates higher enrichment in reach 2 which is likely to be due to anthropogenic sources of industrial and urbanized effluents. The sediment of the mid-sand bar was generally found moderately polluted possessing low risk to aquatic lives and the environment. Suggesting, Dredging can be possible in the future. An examination of correlation matrices, principal components analysis, and cluster analyses indicated that these heavy metals possess similar anthropogenic origins for their enrichment.

Keywords: heavy metal contamination, risk assessment, anthropogenic impacts, sediment

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7466 The Assessment of the Diabetes Mellitus Complications on Oral Health: A Longitudinal Study

Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Gresa Baboci, Edit Xhajanka, Vito Antonio Malagnino

Abstract:

Background: Diabetes mellitus is regarded as a very problematic chronic disease that has an effect on a considerable number of people around the world and it is straightforwardly associated with the oral health condition of the patients. Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the impact of diabetes mellitus on oral health. Materials and methods: In the present research were taken into consideration 300 patients with an age range of 11 to 80 years old. The study sample was composed of 191 males, respectively 63.7% of them and 109 females 36.3% of the participants. We divided them into seven age groups: 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years.This descriptive and analytical research was designed as a longitudinal study. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS 23.0 statistics. Results: The majority of patients participating in the study belonged to the age range from 41 to 50 years old, precisely 20.7% of them, while 27% of the patients were from 51 to 60 years old. Based on the present research, it resulted that 24.4% of the participant had high blood sugar values 250-300 mg/dl, whereas 19 % of the patients had very high blood sugar values 300-350 mg/dl. Based on the results of the current study, it was observed that 83.7% of patients were affected by gingivitis. In the current study, the significant finding is that 22% of patients had more than 7 teeth with dental caries and 21% of them had 5-7 teeth with dental caries, whereas 29% of the patients had 4-5 dental caries and the remaining 28% of them had 1-3 dental caries. The present study showed that most of the patients, 27% of them had lost more than 7 teeth and 22% of the participants had lost 5-7 teeth, whereas 31% of the patients had lost 4-5 teeth and only 20 % of them had lost 1-3 teeth. This study proved that high blood sugar values had a direct impact on the manifestation of gingivitis and there it was a strong correlation between them with P-value = .001. A strong correlation was found out between dental caries and high blood sugar values with P-value ˂.001. Males with diabetes mellitus were more affected by dental caries and this was proved by the P-value= .02, in comparison to females P-value=.03. The impact of high blood sugar values affects missing teeth and the correlation between them was statistically significant with P-value ˂ .001. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus is a possible risk factor in oral health for the reason that Albanian patients over 51 years old, respectively 43% of them have over 5 teeth with dental caries as compared with 49% of the patients who had over 5 missing teeth, whereas the majority 83.7% of them suffered from gingivitis. This study asserts that patients who do not have periodical check-ups of diabetes mellitus are at significant risk of oral diseases.

Keywords: dental caries, diabetes mellitus, gingivitis, missing teeth

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7465 Towards a Vulnerability Model Assessment of The Alexandra Jukskei Catchment in South Africa

Authors: Vhuhwavho Gadisi, Rebecca Alowo, German Nkhonjera

Abstract:

This article sets out to detail an investigation of groundwater management in the Juksei Catchment of South Africa through spatial mapping of key hydrological relationships, interactions, and parameters in catchments. The Department of Water Affairs (DWA) noted gaps in the implementation of the South African National Water Act 1998: article 16, including the lack of appropriate models for dealing with water quantity parameters. For this reason, this research conducted a drastic GIS-based groundwater assessment to improve groundwater monitoring system in the Juksei River basin catchment of South Africa. The methodology employed was a mixed-methods approach/design that involved the use of DRASTIC analysis, questionnaire, literature review and observations to gather information on how to help people who use the Juskei River. GIS (geographical information system) mapping was carried out using a three-parameter DRASTIC (Depth to water, Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, Hydraulic conductivity) vulnerability methodology. In addition, the developed vulnerability map was subjected to sensitivity analysis as a validation method. This approach included single-parameter sensitivity, sensitivity to map deletion, and correlation analysis of DRASTIC parameters. The findings were that approximately 5.7% (45km2) of the area in the northern part of the Juksei watershed is highly vulnerable. Approximately 53.6% (428.8 km^2) of the basin is also at high risk of groundwater contamination. This area is mainly located in the central, north-eastern, and western areas of the sub-basin. The medium and low vulnerability classes cover approximately 18.1% (144.8 km2) and 21.7% (168 km2) of the Jukskei River, respectively. The shallow groundwater of the Jukskei River belongs to a very vulnerable area. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water depth, water recharge, aquifer environment, soil, and topography were the main factors contributing to the vulnerability assessment. The conclusion is that the final vulnerability map indicates that the Juksei catchment is highly susceptible to pollution, and therefore, protective measures are needed for sustainable management of groundwater resources in the study area.

Keywords: contamination, DRASTIC, groundwater, vulnerability, model

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7464 Wetting Treatement: Comparative Overview: Case of Polypropylene Top Sheet Layer on Disposable Baby Diaper

Authors: Tilouche Rahma, Sayeb Soumaya, Ben Hassen Mohamed

Abstract:

The wettability of materials is a very important aspect of surface science, it presents a key factor providing the best characteristic of product, especially in hygienic field. Hydrophobic polypropylene is used as nonwoven topsheet in disposable diaper, for its interesting properties (toughness, lightness...) by comparing with traditional product previously used. SURFACTANTs are widely used to reduce contact angle (water contact angles larger than 90° on smooth surfaces) and to change wetting properties. In the present work, we study ways to obtain hydrophilic polypropylene surface, by the deposition of a variety of surfactant on surfaces of varying morphology. We used two different methods for surface wetting: Spraying method and the coating method. The concentration of the wetting agent, the type of non-woven fabric and the parameters in the method for controlling, hugely affect the quality of treatment. Therefore need that the treatment is effective in terms of contact angle without affecting the mechanical properties of the nonwoven. For the assessment of the quality of treatment, two methods are used: The measurement of the contact angle and the strike trough time. Also, with subjective evaluation by Hedonic test (which involves the consumer preference (naive panel: group of moms). Finally, we selected the better treated topsheet referring to the assessment results.

Keywords: SURFACTANT, topsheet polypropylene, hydrophilic, hydrophobic

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7463 Correlation of Depression and Anxiety with Glycemic Control in Children with Type I Diabetes Mellitus

Authors: Sujata Sethi, Pawan Kumar, Sameer Aggarwal

Abstract:

Depression and anxiety are of significant concern in youth with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and these are correlated with glycemic control in multiple ways. The extent of depression and anxiety in children with T1DM remains poorly studied in India. The index study aimed to find the prevalence of depression and anxiety and their correlation with HbA1c (glycated hemoglobin) levels in children with T1DM. Material and methods: This study was a cross-sectional study carried out on a purposive sample of 45 children with T1DM. Depressive symptoms were assessed using Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and anxiety symptoms were assessed using Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale (SCAS). Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels of all the participants were recorded. Results: 43 out of 45 children were analyzed as HbA1c status for two was not known. 48.8% were females. Mean age was 12.95+2.04. The average duration of diabetes was 3.63+1.82. Mean CDRS-R score was 41.6+12.25 and mean SCAS score was 33.07+12.29. Mean recording of HbA1c level was 7.90+1.51. 27 (62.8%) out of 43 participants had abnormal scores on CDRS-R and 24 (55.8%) out of 43 had abnormal scores on SCAS. The correlation coefficient between HbA1c levels and the CDRS-R score came out to be 0.57 and between HbA1c and SCAS, it was 0.53. Both correlations were significant with the p-value of < 0.02. Conclusion: Children with T1DM have high co-morbidity of depression and anxiety which is significantly correlated with the HbA1c levels. Thus, it becomes important to screen the patients for depression and anxiety for better outcomes.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, HbA1c, T1DM

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7462 Exploring Challenges Faced by People Living with HIV/AIDS After Disclosure in Sub-Saharan Countries

Authors: Veliswa Nonfundo Hoho, Jabulani Gilford Kheswa

Abstract:

HIV/AIDS has been a long-term condition worldwide, which does not only affect physical health but also causes psychological and social challenges in people living with this condition. In Sub-Saharan countries, namely; Nigeria, Uganda, Zimbabwe and South Africa, people living with HIV/AIDS come across different challenges especially after one has disclosed his/her status. They experience stigma and discrimination, isolation, lack of accessing and receiving treatment, lack of support and experience psychological distress. By using the evidence-based systematic review as a form of methodology, journal articles, dissertations, internet, and books were explored. This paper seeks to describe the challenges faced by people living with HIV/AIDS after disclosure, which forms a critical component of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment interventions. The disclosure process model is used to underpin the study. This theory allows one to understand when and why interpersonal and verbal self-disclosure is beneficial for individuals who live with concealable stigmatized identities such as HIV/AIDS. Literature findings advocate that both negative and positive results were noted after disclosing one’s HIV status and psychosocial well-being of the majority of people living with HIV/AIDS also get affected especially in societies which subscribe HIV/AIDS pandemic to witchcraft. As for the infected homosexuals, research indicates that they suffer in silence and to cover their emotional emptiness due to ostracism, they often report low- self-efficacy with regard to condom use and become susceptible to reinfections which further place their lives at heightened risk for low immune system. In this regard, this paper challenges the policies which protect the dignity of people living with HIV/AIDS and calls for unity and financial support in favour of psychoeducational programmes and support groups aimed at curbing discrimination.

Keywords: disclosure, discrimination, homosexuality, self-efficacy

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7461 Assessment of the Physico-Chemical Parameters and Heavy Metal Concentration in Water and Callinectes amnicola (Swimming Crab) in a Crude Oil Exposed Community (Bodo Creek), Rivers State, Nigeria

Authors: Ehiedu Philomina Kika, Jessica Chinonso Ehilegbu

Abstract:

The exploration and production of fossil fuel particularly crude oil has led to some serious environmental damage in some oil producing communities like the Bodo Community who rely heavily on their aquatic environment for food and water. This study was therefore carried out to investigate the level of some heavy metals in water and Callinectes amnicola (Swimming Crab) in the month of August, September and October from Bodo creek, Rivers State, Nigeria. The physico-chemical parameters of the water were also analyzed in-situ. The levels of heavy metals, Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Zinc (Zn), Copper (Cu) were analyzed in water and in Callinectes amnicola (Swimming Crab), using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS) after acid digestion. For the concentration of heavy metals in water, Pb ranged from 0.103 - 0.791 mg/l, Zn 0.0025 - 0.342 mg/l, Cr < 0.001 - 0.304 mg/l, Cd 0.011 - 0.116 mg/l and Cu <0.001 - 0.079 mg/l. For the concentration of heavy metals in Callinectes amnicola (Swimming Crab), the level of Pb ranged from 0.359 - 0.849 mg/l, Zn 0.134 - 0.342 mg/l, Cd 0.053 - 0.103 mg/l, Cr < 0.001 - <0.001 mg/l, Cu < 0.001 - 0.131 mg/l. The concentrations of Pb, Cd and Cr for all water and crab samples collected from the various stations were higher than permissible level suggesting serious anthropogenic influence. Thus, precaution needs to be taken to prevent further contamination and adequate purification measures need to be put in place. Therefore, there should be periodic environmental pollution monitoring, for assessment and awareness especially with regards heavy metal.

Keywords: Bodo creek, crude oil, heavy metal, swimming crab

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7460 Antioxidative Maillard Reaction Products Derived from Gelatin Hydrolysate of Unicorn Leatherjacket Skin

Authors: Supatra Karnjanapratum, Soottawat Benjakul

Abstract:

Gelatin hydrolysate, especially from marine resource, has been known to possess antioxidative activity. Nevertheless, the activity is still lower in comparison with the commercially available antioxidant. Maillard reactions can be use to increase antioxidative activity of gelatin hydrolysate, in which the numerous amino group could be involved in glycation. In the present study, gelatin hydrolysate (GH) from unicorn leatherjacket skin prepared using glycyl endopeptidase with prior autolysis assisted process was used for preparation of Maillard reaction products (MRPs) under dry condition. The impacts of different factors including, types of saccharides, GH to saccharide ratio, incubation temperatures, relative humidity (RH) and times on antioxidative activity of MRPs were investigated. MRPs prepared using the mixture of GH and galactose showed the highest antioxidative activity as determined by both ABTS radical scavenging activity and ferric reducing antioxidant power during heating (0-48 h) at 60 °C with 65% RH, compared with those derived from other saccharide tested. GH to galactose ratio at 2:1 (w/w) yielded the MRPs with the highest antioxidative activity, followed by the ratios of 1:1 and 1:2, respectively. When the effects of incubation temperatures (50, 60, 70 °C) and RH (55, 65, 75%) were examined, the highest browning index and the absorbance at 280 nm were found at 70 °C, regardless of RH. The pH and free amino group content of MRPs were decreased with the concomitant increase in antioxidative activity as the reaction time increased. Antioxidative activity of MRPs generally increased with increasing temperature and the highest antioxidative activity was found when RH of 55% was used. Based on electrophoresis of MRP, the polymerization along with the formation of high molecular weight material was observed. The optimal condition for preparing antioxidative MRPs was heating the mixture of GH and galactose (2:1) at 70 °C and 55% RH for 36 h. Therefore, antioxidative activity of GH was improved by Maillard reaction and the resulting MRP could be used as natural antioxidant in food products.

Keywords: antioxidative activity, gelatin hydrolysate, maillard reaction, unicorn leatherjacket

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7459 Enhancing Academic and Social Skills of Elementary School Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder by an Intensive and Comprehensive Teaching Program

Authors: Piyawan Srisuruk, Janya Boonmeeprasert, Romwarin Gamlunglert, Benjamaporn Choikhruea, Ornjira Jaraepram, Jarin Boonsuchat, Sakdadech Singkibud, Kusalaporn Chaiudomsom, Chanatiporn Chonprai, Pornchanaka Tana, Suchat Paholpak

Abstract:

Objective: To develop an Intensive and comprehensive program (ICP) for the Inclusive Class Teacher (ICPICT) to teach elementary students (ES) with ASD in order to enhance the students’ academic and social skills (ASS) and to study the effect of the teaching program. Methods: The purposive sample included 15 Khon Kaen inclusive class teachers and their 15 elementary students. All the students were diagnosed by a child and adolescent psychiatrist to have DSM-5 level 1 ASD. The study tools included 1) an ICP to teach teachers about ASD, a teaching method to enhance academic and social skills for ES with ASD, and an assessment tool to assess the teacher’s knowledge before and after the ICP. 2) an ICPICT to teach ES with ASD to enhance their ASS. The project taught 10 sessions, 3 hours each. The ICPICT had its teaching structure. Teaching media included: pictures, storytelling, songs, and plays. The authors taught and demonstrated to the participant teachers how to teach with the ICPICT until the participants could display the correct teaching method. Then the teachers taught ICPICT at school by themselves 3) an assessment tool to assess the students’ ASS before and after the completion of the study. The ICP to teach the teachers, the ICPICT, and the relevant assessment tools were developed by the authors and were adjusted until consensus agreed as appropriate for researching by 3 curriculum of teaching children with ASD experts. The data were analyzed by descriptive and analytic statistics via SPSS version 26. Results: After the briefing, the teachers increased the mean score, though not with statistical significance, of knowledge of ASD and how to teach ES with ASD on ASS (p = 0.13). Teaching ES with ASD with the ICPICT could increase the mean scores of the students’ skills in learning and expressing social emotions, relationships with a friend, transitioning, and skills in academic function 3.33, 2.27, 2.94, and 3.00 scores (full scores were 18, 12, 15 and 12, Paired T-Test p = 0.007, 0.013, 0.028 and 0.003 respectively). Conclusion: The program to teach academic and social skills simultaneously in an intensive and comprehensive structure could enhance both the academic and social skills of elementary students with ASD. Keywords: Elementary students, autism spectrum, academic skill, social skills, intensive program, comprehensive program, integration.

Keywords: academica and social skills, students with autism, intensive and comprehensive, teaching program

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7458 Anal Repair and Diamond Flap in Moderate Anal Stenosis Patient After an Open Hemorrhoidectomy Surgery: A Case Report

Authors: Andriana Purnama, Reno Rudiman, Kezia Christy

Abstract:

Anal stenosis which develops due to anoderm scarring usually caused by secondary to surgical trauma, has become common, causing significant decrease patient’s quality of life. Even though mild anal stenosis was treated with non-surgical treatment, but surgical reconstruction in unavoidable for moderate to severe anal stenosis that cause distressing, severe anal pain and inability to defecate. In our study, we intend to share our result with the use of diamond flap in treatment of anal stenosis. This case report illustrates a 57-year-old male patient who presented with difficulty and discomfort in defecation caused by anal stenosis after 2 years of open hemorrhoidectomy surgery. At physical examination, there was requirement of forceful dilatation when the index finger was inserted or precisely 6mm as measured by hegar dilator (moderate anal stenosis). Blood test result was within normal limits. The patient underwent anal repair and diamond flap where the scar tissue at 6 and 9 o’clock directions was excised and diamond graft was incised carefully while paying attention to the vascular supply. Finally, the graft was fixated without any tension to the anal canal, resulting in diameter of 2 cm after operation. After 2 days post operation, the patient was in stable condition, without any complication, and discharged. There was no abnormality concerning the stool. Ten days after the operation, diamond flap was in normal condition and without any complication. He was scheduled for futher follow up at the Digestive Surgery Department. Anal stenosis due to overzealous hemorrhoidectomy is a complication that is preventable when performed in experienced hands. Diamond flap was one of the options for the anal stenosis treatment with less complication.

Keywords: anal stenosis, diamond flap, post hemorrhoidectomy, anal repair

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7457 Using Life Cycle Assessment in Potable Water Treatment Plant: A Colombian Case Study

Authors: Oscar Orlando Ortiz Rodriguez, Raquel A. Villamizar-G, Alexander Araque

Abstract:

There is a total of 1027 municipal development plants in Colombia, 70% of municipalities had Potable Water Treatment Plants (PWTPs) in urban areas and 20% in rural areas. These PWTPs are typically supplied by surface waters (mainly rivers) and resort to gravity, pumping and/or mixed systems to get the water from the catchment point, where the first stage of the potable water process takes place. Subsequently, a series of conventional methods are applied, consisting in a more or less standardized sequence of physicochemical and, sometimes, biological treatment processes which vary depending on the quality of the water that enters the plant. These processes require energy and chemical supplies in order to guarantee an adequate product for human consumption. Therefore, in this paper, we applied the environmental methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental loads of a potable water treatment plant (PWTP) located in northeastern Colombia following international guidelines of ISO 14040. The different stages of the potable water process, from the catchment point through pumping to the distribution network, were thoroughly assessed. The functional unit was defined as 1 m³ of water treated. The data were analyzed through the database Ecoinvent v.3.01, and modeled and processed in the software LCA-Data Manager. The results allowed determining that in the plant, the largest impact was caused by Clarifloc (82%), followed by Chlorine gas (13%) and power consumption (4%). In this context, the company involved in the sustainability of the potable water service should ideally reduce these environmental loads during the potable water process. A strategy could be the use of Clarifloc can be reduced by applying coadjuvants or other coagulant agents. Also, the preservation of the hydric source that supplies the treatment plant constitutes an important factor, since its deterioration confers unfavorable features to the water that is to be treated. By concluding, treatment processes and techniques, bioclimatic conditions and culturally driven consumption behavior vary from region to region. Furthermore, changes in treatment processes and techniques are likely to affect the environment during all stages of a plant’s operation cycle.

Keywords: climate change, environmental impact, life cycle assessment, treated water

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7456 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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