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Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

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Authors: Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Mohammad Afzal Mahmood, Judith Streak Gomersall, Caroline O. Laurence

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Introduction: Improving access to quality family planning services is the key to improving health of women and children. However, there is currently little evidence on the quality and scope of family planning services provided by private facilities, and this compares to the services provided in public facilities in Ethiopia. This is important, particularly in determining whether the government should further expand the roles of the private sector in the delivery of family planning facility. Methods: This study used the 2014 Ethiopian Services Provision Assessment Plus (ESPA+) survey dataset for comparing the structural aspects of quality of care in family planning services. The present analysis used a weighted sample of 1093 primary health care facilities (955 public and 138 private). This study employed logistic regression analysis to compare key structural variables between public and private facilities. While taking the structural variables as an outcome for comparison, the facility type (public vs private) were used as the key exposure of interest. Results: When comparing availability of basic amenities (infrastructure), public facilities were less likely to have functional cell phones (AOR=0.12; 95% CI: 0.07-0.21), and water supply (AOR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.15-0.58) than private facilities. However, public facilities were more likely to have staff available 24 hours in the facility (AOR=0.12; 95% CI: 0.07-0.21), providers having family planning related training in the past 24 months (AOR=4.4; 95% CI: 2.51, 7.64) and possessing guidelines/protocols (AOR= 3.1 95% CI: 1.87, 5.24) than private facilities. Moreover, comparing the availability of equipment, public facilities had higher odds of having pelvic model for IUD demonstration (AOR=2.60; 95% CI: 1.35, 5.01) and penile model for condom demonstration (AOR=2.51; 95% CI: 1.32, 4.78) than private facilities. Conclusion: The present study suggests that Ethiopian government needs to provide emphasis towards the private sector in terms of providing family planning guidelines and training on family planning services for their staff. It is also worthwhile for the public health facilities to allocate funding for improving the availability of basic amenities. Implications for policy and/ or practice: This study calls policy makers to design appropriate strategies in providing opportunities for training a health care providers working in private health facility.

Keywords: quality of care, family planning, public-private, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sankhanil Das, Arunava Dasgupta, Keya Mitra

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This paper investigates the relationship between natural ecological systems and modern urban morphology. Over years, ecological conditions represented by natural resources such as natural landforms, systems of water, urban geography and land covers have been a significant driving factor of how settlements have formed, expanded and functioned. These have played a pivotal role in formation of the community character and the cultural identity of the urban spaces, and have steered cultural behavior within these settings. Such cultural behaviors have been instrumental in transforming mere spaces to places with meaning and symbolism. The natural process of city formation is principally founded upon the idea of balance and harmony, mostly in a subconscious manner. Reimaging such processes of natural evolution, this paper systematically builds a development model that generates a balance between environment and development, with specific focus on the Urban-Rural fringe areas in the Temple Town of Puri, in Eastern India. Puri represents a unique cross section of ecological landscape, cultural practices and religious symbolism with a very rich history and a vibrant heritage. While the city centre gets more and more crowded by tourists and pilgrims to accommodate related businesses, the original residents of Puri relocate to move towards the urban peripheral areas for better living conditions, gradually converting agricultural lands into non agricultural uses. This rapid spread into the rural hinterland is devoid of any connection with the rich cultural identity of Puri. These past four decades of ‘development’ has been at the cost of 810 Hectares of ecological Lake systems in the region. Invaluable ecological resources at urban rural edges are often viewed as hindrances to development and conceptualized as taking away from the image of the city. This paper attempts to understand the language of development over years on existing natural resources through topo-analysis and proposes a sustainable approach of development using different planning tools, with ecological resources as the pivotal factor of development.

Keywords: livability, sustainable development, urbanization, urban-rural edge

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Authors: Phalla Miech, William Leung, Ty Chhay, Sina Vor, Arata Hidano

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Smallholder pig farms (SPFs) are prevalent in Cambodia but are vulnerable to disease impacts, as evidenced by the recent incursion of African swine fever into the region. As part of the ‘PigFluCam+’ project, we sought to provide an updated picture of pig husbandry and biosecurity practices among SPFs in south-central Cambodia. A multi-stage sampling design was adopted to select study districts and villages within four provinces: Phnom Penh, Kandal, Takeo, and Kampong Speu. Structured interviews were conductedbetween October 2020 - May 2021 among all consenting households keeping pigs in 16 target villages. Recruited SPFs (n=176) kept 6.8 pigs on average (s.d.=7.7), with most (88%) keeping cross-bred varieties of sows (77%), growers/finishers (39%), piglets/weaners (22%), and few keeping boars (5%). Chickens (83%) and waterfowl (56%) were commonly raised and could usually contact pigs directly (79%). Pigs were the primary source of household income for 28% of participants. While pigs tended to be housed individually (40%) or in groups (33%), 13% kept pigs free-ranging/tethered. Pigs were commonly fed agricultural by-products (80%), commercial feed (60%), and, notably, household waste (59%). Under half of SPFs vaccinated their pigs (e.g., against classical swine fever, Aujesky’s, and pasteurellosis, although the target disease was often unknown). Among 20 SPFs who experienced pig morbidities/mortalities within the past 6 months, only 3 (15%) reported to animal health workers, and disease etiology was rarely known. Common biosecurity measures included nets covering pig pens (62%) and restricting access to the site/pens (46%). Boot dips (0.6%) and PPE (1.2%) were rarely used. Pig smallholdings remain an important contributor to rural livelihoods. Current practices and biosecurity challenges increase risk pathways for a range of disease threats of both local and global concern. Ethnographic studies are needed to better understand local determinants and develop context-appropriate strategies.

Keywords: smallholder production, swine, biosecurity practices, Cambodia, African swine fever

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Authors: Ritvik Chauhan, Vijay Kumar Baraik

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Crime is a rare event on earth surface. It is not simple but a complex event occurring in a spatio- temporal environment. Crime is one of the most serious security threats to human environments as it may result in harm to the individuals through the loss of property, physical and psychological injuries. The conventional studies done on different nature crime was mostly related to laws, psychological, social and political themes. The geographical areas are heterogeneous in their environmental conditions, associations between structural conditions, social organization which contributing specific crimes. The crime pattern analysis is made through theories in which criminal events occurs in persistent, identifiable patterns in a particular space and time. It will be the combined analysis of spatial factors and rational factors to the crime. In this study, we are analyzing the combined factors for the origin of crime against children. Children have always been vulnerable to victimization more because they are silent victims both physically and mentally to crimes and they even not realize what is happening with them. Their trusting nature and innocence always misused by criminals to perform crimes. The nature of crime against children is changed in past years like child rape, kidnapping &abduction, selling & buying of girls, foeticide, infanticide, prostitution, child marriage etc turned to more cruel and inhuman. This study will focus on understanding the space-time pattern of crime against children during the period 2001-2012. It also makes an attempt to explore and ascertain the association of crimes categorised against children, its rates with various geographical and socio-demographic factors through causal analysis using selected indicators (child sex-ratio, education, literacy rate, employment, income, etc.) obtained from the Census of India and other government sources. The outcome of study will help identifying the high crime regions with specified nature of crimes. It will also review the existing efforts and exploring the new plausible measure for tracking, monitoring and minimization of crime rate to meet the end goal of protecting the children from crimes committed against them.

Keywords: crime against children, geographic profiling, spatio-temporal analysis, hotspot

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Authors: Bagweneza Vedaste, Rugema Joselyne, Twagirayezu Innocent, Nikuze Bellancille, Nyirazigama Alice, Ishimwe Bazakare Marie Laetitia, Kaberuka Gerard, Mukeshimana Madeleine

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Background: Teen pregnancies have dramatically increased across the country in the past few years. Teen mothers usually face difficulties accessing the reproductive health (RH) services due to different reasons that include fear of getting discriminated or seen by other people. Some teen mothers do not also know their rights regarding the RH services, and they sometimes get discriminated. Little is known in Rwanda regarding how these teen mothers access the RH services compared to the general population, and views of teen mothers on their rights to access these services have not been clearly documented in the country. Specific Aims: To explore baseline information about SRH services among teen mothers; to explore factors that contribute to the use of SRH services among teen mothers; to identify strategies to increase awareness on SRHR (Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights) among teen mothers in targeted area; and to explore views of teen mothers on rights for SRH services. Research design/Methodology: The qualitative exploratory descriptive research will be used among the teen mothers in five selected health centers of Rwamagana district. The study will use the qualitative descriptive study design. Setting: The study will be conducted in five selected health centers of Rwamagana district, which has been chosen due to a higher number of adolescent pregnancies in Eastern Province according to the DHS 2019-2020. Participants: The participants in this study will be teenage mothers who conceived after turning 11 but have delivered before turning 19. As the upper age for teenage is 19 years, this means that the researchers anticipated that those conceiving at 19 years may deliver in their twenties, which was the upper age limit in this study. Data collection measures: A semi-structured interview guide will be used to gather information from the respondents in focus group discussions. Significance: The findings of this study will provide a picture regarding the access of teen mothers to SRHS and their rights to SRH services. They will increase their awareness regarding SRH services and rights. Finally, the findings may help to address barriers faced by teen mothers to reach, pay and utilize SRHS.

Keywords: sexual and reproductive health services, inclusiveness, qualitative study, adolescent mothers

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Authors: Yu-Chen Chien, Sheng-Jung Ou, Shang-Ling Hsu

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Many aboriginal tribes in the early modern began to actively promote tribal tourism. The tribe uses rich ecological environment and unique folk culture successfully attract crowds. In addition to the tribe in the construction level to consider the cultural heritage and living needs, in order to improve tribal tourism for the tribe to bring the benefits of all levels, as well as to avoid the tourism industry is too prosperous brought negative tourism impact. How to successfully create the conditions of mutual benefit of residents and tourists is an important issue common to many tribes. Hualien Turuku Hongye Tribe in Taiwan around the tourist resources are very rich. It is famous for its Hongye hot springs and Ruisui hot springs. Hongye tribe to develop tribal tourism is bound to use its own has three advantages: Truku culture, in the agricultural products experience and marketing, and the surrounding hot springs industry tourism benefits. Tribal Development Association in the past to promote these three advantages for tribal tourism. But due to the impact of many levels led to the tribes in the promotion of tourism on the ineffective. At present, in addition to the Hongye Tribal Development Association in promoting tribal tourism, local residents to promote cultural heritage workshop also gradually rise. Its purpose is to link local cultural resources, agricultural specialty resources, spa tourism industry, the revitalization of the internal development of the tribes at all levels. Each tribe to promote tribal tourism due to geographical environment, resource types have a different set of practices and patterns. This study explores the tourist opportunities and resource points of Hongye tribes, and tribal tourism has been to promote the operation practices and benefits. To understand the difficulties encountered in the implementation of tribal tourism and the impact of all levels. Reference successful development of domestic and foreign tourism tribal tribe case. Develop a questionnaire and using the questionnaire survey to understand tribal residents for the tribal tribes to promote tribal tourism views. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions and strategies to promote the tribal tourism in Hongye tribe.

Keywords: cultural tourism, tourism impact, aboriginal tribe, Hongye Tribe

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Authors: Meichen He, Xuan Yang

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Background: In the field of psychotherapy, the role of the family of origin is of utmost importance. Over the past few decades, both individual-oriented and family-oriented approaches to child therapy have shown moderate success in reducing children's psychological and behavioral issues. Objective: However, in exploring how the family of origin influences individuals, it has been noted that there is a lack of comprehensive measurement indicators and an absence of an exact model to assess the impact of the family of origin on individual development. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model based on a literature review regarding the influence of the family of origin on children. Specifically, it will examine the effects of factors such as education level, economic status, maternal age, family integration, family violence, marital conflict, parental substance abuse, and alcohol consumption on children's self-confidence and life satisfaction. Through this research, we aim to further investigate the impact of the family of origin on children and provide directions for future research in positive psychology and psychotherapy. Methods: This study will employ a literature review methodology to gather and analyze relevant research articles on the influence of the family of origin on children. Subsequently, we will conduct quantitative analyses to establish a comprehensive model explaining how family of origin factors affect children's psychological and behavioral outcomes. Findings: the research has revealed that family of origin factors, including education level, economic status, maternal age, family integration, family violence, marital conflict, parental drug and alcohol consumption, have an impact on children's self-confidence and life satisfaction. These factors can affect children's psychological well-being and happiness through various pathways. Implications: The results of this study will contribute to a better understanding of the influence of the family of origin on children and provide valuable directions for future research in positive psychology and psychotherapy. This research will enhance awareness of children's psychological well-being and lay the foundation for improving psychotherapeutic methods.

Keywords: family of origion, positive psychology, developmental psychology, family education, social psychology, educational psychology

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Authors: Anamika Sahu

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The Himalayas, like many mountainous regions, is susceptible to multiple hazards. In recent times, the frequency of such disasters is continuously increasing due to extreme weather phenomena. These natural hazards are responsible for irreparable human and economic loss. The Indian Himalayas has repeatedly been ruptured by great earthquakes in the past and has the potential for a future large seismic event as it falls under the seismic gap. Damages caused by earthquakes are different in different localities. It is well known that, during earthquakes, damage to the structure is associated with the subsurface conditions and the quality of construction materials. So, for sustainable mountain development, prior estimation of site characterization will be valuable for designing and constructing the space area and for efficient mitigation of the seismic risk. Both geotechnical and geophysical investigation of the subsurface is required to describe the subsurface complexity. In mountainous regions, geophysical methods are gaining popularity as areas can be studied without disturbing the ground surface, and also these methods are time and cost-effective. The MASW method is used to calculate the Vs30. Vs30 is the average shear wave velocity for the top 30m of soil. Shear wave velocity is considered the best stiffness indicator, and the average of shear wave velocity up to 30 m is used in National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) provisions (BSSC,1994) and Uniform Building Code (UBC), 1997 classification. Parameters obtained through geotechnical investigation have been integrated with findings obtained through the subsurface geophysical survey. Joint interpretation has been used to establish inter-relationships among mineral constituents, various textural parameters, and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) with shear wave velocity. It is found that results obtained through the MASW method fitted well with the laboratory test. In both conditions, mineral constituents and textural parameters (grain size, grain shape, grain orientation, and degree of interlocking) control the petrophysical and mechanical properties of rocks and the behavior of shear wave velocity.

Keywords: MASW, mechanical, petrophysical, site characterization

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Authors: Mark White

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The best practices for owners and urban planners to manage tsunami risk have evolved during the last fifty years, and related technical advances have created opportunities for them to obtain better performance than in earlier cataclysmic tsunami inundations. This basic pattern is illustrated at Hilo Bay, the waterfront area of Hilo, Hawaii, an urban seaport which faces the most severe tsunami hazard of the Hawaiian archipelago. Since April 1, 1946, Hilo Bay has endured tsunami waves with a maximum water height exceeding 2.5 meters following four severe earthquakes: Unimak Island (Mw 8.6, 6.1 m) in 1946; Valdiva (Mw 9.5, the largest earthquake of the 20th century, 10.6 m) in 1960; William Prince Sound (Mw 9.2, 3.8 m) in 1964; and Kalapana (Mw 7.7, the largest earthquake in Hawaii since 1868, 2.6 m) in 1975. Ignoring numerous smaller tsunamis during the same time frame, these four cataclysmic tsunamis have caused property losses in Hilo to exceed $1.25 billion and more than 150 deaths. It is reasonable to foresee another cataclysmic tsunami inundating the urban core of Hilo in the next 50 years, which, if unchecked, could cause additional deaths and losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Urban planners and individual owners are now in a position to reduce these losses in the next foreseeable tsunami that generates maximum water heights between 2.5 and 10 meters in Hilo Bay. Since 1946, Hilo planners and individual owners have already created buffer zones between the shoreline and its historic downtown area. As these stakeholders make inevitable improvements to the built environment along and adjacent to the shoreline, they should incorporate new methods for better managing the obvious tsunami risk at Hilo. At the planning level, new manmade land forms, such as tsunami parks and inundation reservoirs, should be developed. Individual owners should require their design professionals to include sacrificial seismic and tsunami fuses that will perform well in foreseeable severe events and that can be easily repaired in the immediate aftermath. These investments before the next cataclysmic tsunami at Hilo will yield substantial reductions in property losses and fatalities.

Keywords: hilo, tsunami parks, reservoirs, fuse systems, risk managment

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Authors: Suha Alawadhi, Malak Alrasheed

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In the recent past, public participation in governments has been declined to a great extent, as citizens have been isolated from community life and their ability to articulate demands for good government has been noticeably decreased. However, the Internet has introduced new forms of interaction that could enhance different types of relationships, including government-public relationship. In fact, technology-enabled government has become a catalyst for enabling social inclusion. This exploratory study seeks to investigate public perceptions in Kuwait regarding the use of social media networks in government where social capital is built to achieve social inclusion. Social capital has been defined as social networks and connections amongst individuals, that are based on shared trust, ideas and norms, enable participants of a network to act effectively to pursue a shared objective. The quantitative method was used to generate empirical evidence. A questionnaire was designed to address the research objective and reflect the identified constructs: social capital dimensions (bridging, bonding and maintaining social capital), social inclusion, and social equality. In this pilot study, data was collected from a random sample of 61 subjects. The results indicate that all participants have a positive attitude towards the dimensions of social capital (bridging, bonding and maintaining), social inclusion and social equality constructs. Tests of identified constructs against demographic characteristics indicate that there are significant differences between male and female as they perceived bonding and maintaining social capital, social inclusion and social equality whereas no difference was identified in their perceptions of bridging social capital. Also, those who are aged 26-30 perceived bonding and maintaining social capital, social inclusion and social equality negatively compared to those aged 20-25, 31-35, and 40-above whose perceptions were positive. With regard to education, the results also show that those holding high school, university degree and diploma perceived maintaining social capital positively higher than with those who hold graduate degrees. Moreover, a regression model is proposed to study the effect of bridging, bonding, and maintaining social capital on social inclusion via social equality as a mediator. This exploratory study is necessary for testing the validity and reliability of the questionnaire which will be used in the main study that aims to investigate the perceptions of individuals towards building social capital to achieve social inclusion.

Keywords: government, social capital, social inclusion, social networks

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Authors: Mohammed Al Sulaimani, Hamad Al Manhi

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With the development of Remote Sensing technology, the resolution of optical Remote Sensing images has greatly improved, and images have become largely available. Numerous detectors have been developed for detecting different types of objects. In the past few years, Remote Sensing has benefited a lot from deep learning, particularly Deep Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). Deep learning holds great promise to fulfill the challenging needs of Remote Sensing and solving various problems within different fields and applications. The use of Unmanned Aerial Systems in acquiring Aerial Photos has become highly used and preferred by most organizations to support their activities because of their high resolution and accuracy, which make the identification and detection of very small features much easier than Satellite Images. And this has opened an extreme era of Deep Learning in different applications not only in feature extraction and prediction but also in analysis. This work addresses the capacity of Machine Learning and Deep Learning in detecting and extracting Oil Leaks from Flowlines (Onshore) using High-Resolution Aerial Photos which have been acquired by UAS fixed with RGB Sensor to support early detection of these leaks and prevent the company from the leak’s losses and the most important thing environmental damage. Here, there are two different approaches and different methods of DL have been demonstrated. The first approach focuses on detecting the Oil Leaks from the RAW Aerial Photos (not processed) using a Deep Learning called Single Shoot Detector (SSD). The model draws bounding boxes around the leaks, and the results were extremely good. The second approach focuses on detecting the Oil Leaks from the Ortho-mosaiced Images (Georeferenced Images) by developing three Deep Learning Models using (MaskRCNN, U-Net and PSP-Net Classifier). Then, post-processing is performed to combine the results of these three Deep Learning Models to achieve a better detection result and improved accuracy. Although there is a relatively small amount of datasets available for training purposes, the Trained DL Models have shown good results in extracting the extent of the Oil Leaks and obtaining excellent and accurate detection.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, oil leak detection, machine learning, aerial photos, unmanned aerial systems

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Authors: Muhammad Usman, Munir Ahmed

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The demand of high-rise buildings has grown fast during the past decades. The design of these buildings by using RC core wall have been widespread nowadays in many countries. The RC core wall (RCCW) buildings encompasses central core wall and boundary columns joined through post tension slab at different floor levels. The core wall often provides greater stiffness as compared to the collective stiffness of the boundary columns. Hence, the core wall dominantly resists lateral loading i.e. wind or earthquake load. Non-linear response history analysis (NLRHA) procedure is the finest seismic design procedure of the times for designing high-rise buildings. The modern design tools for nonlinear response history analysis and performance based design has provided more confidence to design these structures for high-rise buildings. NLRHA requires selection and scaling of ground motions to match design spectrum for site specific conditions. Designers use several techniques for scaling ground motion records (time series). Time domain and frequency domain scaling are most commonly used which comprises their own benefits and drawbacks. Due to lengthy process of NLRHA, application of only one technique is conceivable. To the best of author’s knowledge, no consensus on the best procedures for the selection and scaling of the ground motions is available in literature. This research aims to provide the finest ground motion scaling technique specifically for designing 40 story high-rise RCCW buildings. Seismic response of 40 story RCCW building is checked by applying both the frequency domain and time domain scaling. Variable sites are selected in three critical seismic zones of Pakistan. The results indicates that there is extensive variation in seismic response of building for these scaling. There is still a need to build a consensus on the subjected research by investigating variable sites and buildings heights.

Keywords: 40-storied RC core wall building, nonlinear response history analysis, ground motions, time domain scaling, frequency domain scaling

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Authors: Kathleen Cravero, Amanda Nace, Samantha Ski

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The Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS) is nationally representative surveys of male and female youth ages 13-24, designed to measure the burden of sexual, physical, and emotional violence experienced in childhood and adolescence. As of 2019, 24 countries implemented or are in the process of implementing a VACS, covering over ten percent of the world’s child population. Since the first article using VACS data from Swaziland was published in 2009, several peer-reviewed articles have been published on the VACS. However, no publications to date have analyzed the breadth of the work and analyzed how the data are represented in the peer-reviewed literature. In this study, we conducted a literature review of all peer-reviewed research that used VACS data or discussed the implementation and methodology of the VACS. The literature review revealed several important findings. Between 2009 and July 2019, thirty-five peer-reviewed articles using VACS data from 12 countries have been published. Twenty of the studies focus on one country, while 15 of the studies focus on two or more countries. Some countries are featured in the literature more than others, for example Kenya (N=14), Malawi (N=12), and Tanzania (N=12). A review of the research by gender demonstrates that research on violence against boys is under-represented. Only two studies specifically focused on boys/young men, while 11 studies focused only on violence against girls. This is despite research which suggests boys and girls experience similar rates of violence. A review of the publications by type of violence revealed significant differences in the types of violence being featured in the literature. Thirteen publications specifically focused on sexual violence, while three studies focused on physical violence, and only one study focused on emotional violence. Almost 70% of the peer-reviewed articles (24 of the 35) were first-authored by someone at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There were very few first authors from VACS countries, which raises questions about who is leveraging the data and the extent to which capacities for data liberation are being developed within VACS countries. The VACS provide an unprecedented amount of information on the prevalence and past-year incidence of violence against children. Through a review of the peer-reviewed literature on the VACS we can begin to identify trends and gaps in how the data is being used as well as identify areas for further research.

Keywords: data to action, global health, implementation science, violence against children surveys

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Authors: Yi Yau, Chia-Huei Hsiao

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The elderly society is already a problem of globalization, and Taiwan will enter a super-aged society in 2025. Therefore, how to improve the health of the elderly and reduce the government's social burden is an important issue at present. Exercise is the best medical care, and it is also a healthy activity for people to live a healthy life. Facing the super-aged society in the future, it is necessary to attract them to participate in sports voluntarily through sports promotion so that they can live healthy and independent lives and continue to participate in society to enhance the well-being of the elderly. Experiential marketing and sports participation are closely related. In the past, it was mainly aimed at consumer behavior at the commercial level. At present, there are not many study objects focusing on participant behavior and middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study takes the news emerged sport-Pickleball that has been loved by silver-haired people in recent years as the research sport. It uses questionnaire surveys and intentional sampling methods. The purpose of the group is to understand the middle-aged and elderly people’s experience and behavior patterns of Pickleball, explore the relationship between experiential marketing and participants' intentional behaviors, and predict which aspects of experiential marketing will affect their intentional behaviors. The findings showed that experience marketing is highly positively correlated with behavioral intentions, and experience marketing has a positive predictive power for behavioral intentions. Among them, "ACT" and "SENSE" are predictive variables that effectively predict behavioral intentions. This study proves the feasibility of pickleball for middle-aged and senior sports. It is recommended that in the future curriculum planning, try to simplify the exercise steps, increase the chances of contact with the sphere, and enhance the sensory experience to enhance the sense of success during exercise, and then generate exercise motivation, and ultimately change the exercise mode or habits and promote health.

Keywords: newly emerged sports, middle age and elderly, health promotion, ACT, SENSE

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Authors: Gayathri Pramod, Sheeja K. P.

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Urban flooding has been seen rising in cities for the past few years. This rise in urban flooding is the result of increasing urbanization and increasing climate change. A resilient city design focuses on 'living with water'. This means that the city is capable of accommodating the floodwaters without having to risk any loss of lives or properties. The resilient city design incorporates green infrastructure, river edge treatment, open space design, etc. to form a city that functions as a whole for resilience. Sponge urbanism is a recent method for building resilient cities and is founded by China in 2014. Sponge urbanism is the apt method for resilience building for a tropical town like Aluva of Kerala. Aluva is a tropical town that experiences rainfall of about 783 mm per month during the rainy season. Aluva is an urbanized town which faces the risk of urban flooding and riverine every year due to the presence of Periyar River in the town. Impervious surfaces and hard construction and developments contribute towards flood risk by posing as interference for a natural flow and natural filtration of water into the ground. This type of development is seen in Aluva also. Aluva is designed in this research as a town that have resilient strategies of sponge city and which focusses on natural methods of construction. The flood susceptibility of Aluva is taken into account to design the spaces for sponge urbanism and in turn, reduce the flood susceptibility for the town. Aluva is analyzed, and high-risk zones for development are identified through studies. These zones are designed to withstand the risk of flooding. Various catchment areas are identified according to the natural flow of water, and then these catchment areas are designed to act as a public open space and as detention ponds in case of heavy rainfall. Various development guidelines, according to land use, is also prescribed, which help in increasing the green cover of the town. Aluva is then designed to be a completely flood-adapted city or sponge city according to the guidelines and interventions.

Keywords: climate change, flooding, resilient city, sponge city, sponge urbanism, urbanization

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Authors: M. Cabrera, W. Tizani, J. Ninic, F. Wang

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Open section beam to concrete-filled tubular column structures has been increasingly utilized in construction over the past few decades due to their enhanced structural performance, as well as economic and architectural advantages. However, the use of this configuration in construction is limited due to the difficulties in connecting the structural members as there is no access to the inner part of the tube to install standard bolts. Blind-bolted systems are a relatively new approach to overcome this limitation as they only require access to one side of the tubular section to tighten the bolt. The performance of these connections in concrete-filled steel tubular sections remains uncharacterized due to the complex interactions between concrete, bolt, and steel section. Over the last years, research in structural performance has moved to a more sophisticated and efficient approach consisting of machine learning algorithms to generate metamodels. This method reduces the need for developing complex, and computationally expensive finite element models, optimizing the search for desirable design variables. Metamodels generated by a data fusion approach use numerical and experimental results by combining multiple models to capture the dependency between the simulation design variables and connection performance, learning the relations between different design parameters and predicting a given output. Fully characterizing this connection will transform high-rise and multistorey construction by means of the introduction of design guidance for moment-resisting blind-bolted connections, which is currently unavailable. This paper presents a review of the steps taken to develop metamodels generated by means of artificial neural network algorithms which predict the connection stress and stiffness based on the design parameters when using Extended Hollo-Bolt blind bolts. It also provides consideration of the failure modes and mechanisms that contribute to the deformability as well as the feasibility of achieving blind-bolted rigid connections when using the blind fastener.

Keywords: blind-bolted connections, concrete-filled tubular structures, finite element analysis, metamodeling

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Authors: Abhimanyu Behera

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Over the past few years, energy security and sustainable development have moved rapidly into the global agenda. There are two main reasons: first, the impact of high and often volatile energy prices; second, concerns over environmental sustainability particularly about the global climate. Both issues are critically important in which impressive economic growth has boosted the demand for energy and put corresponding strains on the environment. Energy security is a broad concept that focuses on energy availability and pricing. Specifically, it refers to the ability of the energy supply system i.e. suppliers, transporters, distributors and regulatory, financial and R&D institutions to deliver the amount of competitively priced energy that customers demand, within accepted standards of reliability, timeliness, quality, safety. Traditionally, energy security has been defined in the context of the geopolitical risks to external oil supplies but today it is encompassing all energy forms, all the external and internal links bringing the energy to the final consumer, and all the many ways energy supplies can be disrupted including equipment malfunctions, system design flaws, operator errors, malicious computer activities, deficient market and regulatory frameworks, corporate financial problems, labour actions, severe weather and natural events, aggressive acts (e.g. war, terrorism and sabotage), and geopolitical disruptions. In practice, the most challenging disruptions are those linked to: 1) extreme weather events; 2) mismatched electricity supply and demand; 3) regulatory failures; and 4) concentration of oil and gas resources in certain regions of the world. However, insecure energy supplies inhibit development by raising energy costs and imposing expensive cuts in services when disruptions actually occur. The energy supply sector can best advance sustainable development by producing and delivering secure and environmentally-friendly sources of energy and by increasing the efficiency of energy use. With this objective, this paper seeks to highlight the significance of energy security and sustainable development in today’s world. Moreover, it critically overhauls the major challenges towards sustainability of energy security and what are the major policies are taken to overcome these challenges by Government is lucidly explicated in this paper.

Keywords: energy, policies, security, sustainability

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Authors: Zhiqiang Yan, Chen Fan, Yafei Wang, Beicheng Xia

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Urban lakes play an invaluable role in urban water systems such as flood control, water supply, and public recreation. However, over 38% of the urban lakes have suffered from severe eutrophication in China. Chlorine that could remarkably inhibit the growth of phytoplankton in eutrophic, has been widely used in the agricultural, aquaculture and industry in the recent past. However, little information has been reported regarding the effects of chlorine on the lake ecosystem, especially on the main aquatic species.To investigate the ecological response of main aquatic species and system stability to chlorine interference in shallow urban lakes, a mini system dynamic model was developed based on the competition and predation of main aquatic species and total phosphorus circulation. The main species of submerged macrophyte, phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, spiroggra and total phosphorus in water and sediment were used as variables in the model,while the interference of chlorine on phytoplankton was represented by an exponential attenuation equation. Furthermore, the eco-exergy expressing the development degree of ecosystem was used to quantify the complexity of the shallow urban lake. The model was validated using the data collected in the Lotus Lake in Guangzhoufrom1 October 2015 to 31 January 2016.The correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) and index of agreement (IOA) were calculated to evaluate accuracy and reliability of the model.The simulated values showed good qualitative agreement with the measured values of all components. The model results showed that chlorine had a notable inhibitory effect on Microcystis aeruginos，Rachionus plicatilis, Diaphanosoma brachyurum Liévin and Mesocyclops leuckarti (Claus).The outbreak of Spiroggra.spp. inhibited the growth of Vallisneria natans (Lour.) Hara, leading to a gradual decrease of eco-exergy and the breakdown of ecosystem internal equilibria. This study gives important insight into using chlorine to achieve eutrophication control and understand mechanism process.

Keywords: system dynamic model, urban lake, chlorine, eco-exergy

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Authors: Bahor Bahriddinovna Turaeva

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The article provides a structural analysis of the titles of the famous Kyrgyz writer Chingiz Aitmatov’s creative works “The Day Lasts More Than a Hundred Years”, “Doomsday”. The author’s creative purpose in naming the work of art, the role of the elements of the plot, and the composition of the novels in revealing the essence of the title are explained. The criteria that are important in naming the author’s works in different genres are classified, and the titles that mean artistic time and artistic space are studied separately. Chronotope is being concerned as the literary-aesthetic category in world literary studies, expressing the scope of the universe interpretation, the author’s outlook and imagination regarding the world foundation, defining personages, and the composition means of expressing the sequence and duration of the events. A creative comprehension of the chronotope as a means of arranging the work composition, structure and constructing an epic field of the text demands a special approach to understanding the aesthetic character of the work. Since the chronotope includes all the elements of a fictional work, it is impossible to present the plot, composition, conflict, system of characters, feelings, and mood of the characters without the description of the chronotope. In the following development of the scientific-theoretical thought in the world, the chronotope is accepted to be one of the poetic means to demonstrate reality as well as to be a literary process that is basic for the expression of reality in the compositional construction and illustration of the plot relying on the writer’s intention and the ideological conception of the literary work. Literary time enables one to cognate the literary world picture created by the author in terms of the descriptive subject and object of the work. Therefore, one of the topical tasks of modern Uzbek literary studies is to describe historical evidence, event, the life of outstanding people, the chronology of the near past based on the literary time; on the example of the creative works of a certain period, creators or an individual writer are analyzed in separate or comparative-typological aspect.

Keywords: novel, title, chronotope, motive, epigraph, analepsis, structural analysis, plot line, composition

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Authors: Asad Salahuddin

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Crime rates seem to be severely augmenting over the past several years in Pakistan which has perpetuated concerns as to what, when and how this upsurge will be eradicated. State institutions are posed to be in utmost perplexity, given the enormity of worsening law and order situation, compelling government on the flip side to expend more resources in strengthening institutions to confront crime, whereas, the economy has been confronted with massive energy crisis, mass unemployment and considerable inflation which has rendered most of the people into articulate apprehension as to how to satisfy basic necessities. A framework to investigate the variability in the rising street crimes, as affected by social and institutional outcomes, has been established using a cross-sectional study. Questionnaire, entailing 7 sections incorporating numerous patterns of behavior and history of involvement in different crimes for potential street criminals was observed as data collection instrument. In order to specifically explicate the intent of street crimes on micro level, various motivational and de-motivational factors that stimulate people to resort to street crimes were scrutinized. Intent of mobile snatching and intent of street assault as potential dependent variables were examined using numerous variables that influence the occurrence and intent of these crimes using ordered probit along with ordered logit and tobit as competing models. Model Estimates asserts that intent of mobile snatching has been significantly enhanced owing to perceived judicial inefficiency and lower ability of police reforms to operate effectively, which signifies the inefficiency of institutions that are entitled to deliver justice and maintaining law and order respectively. Whereas, intent of street assaults, as an outcome, affirms that people with lack of self-stability and severe childhood punishments were more tempted to be involved in violent acts. Hence, it is imperative for government to render better resources in form of training, equipment and improved salaries to police and judiciary in order to enhance their abilities and potential to curb inflating crime.

Keywords: deprivation, street assault, self control, police reform

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Authors: Nor Azlina A. Rahman, Jamaliah Said, Salwana Hassan

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Prompt changes in global business environment, such as passionate competition, managerial/operational, changing governmental regulation and innovation in technology have significant impacts on the organizations. At present, global business environment demands for more proactive institutions on microfinance to provide an opportunity for the business success. Microfinance providers in Malaysia still accelerate its activities of funding by cash and cheque. These institutions are at high risk as the paper-based system is deemed to be slow and prone to human error, as well as requiring a major annual reconciliation process. The global transformation of financial services, growing involvement of technology, innovation and new business activities had progressively made risk management profile to be more subjective and diversified. The persistent, complex and dynamic nature of risk management activities in the institutions arise due to highly automated advancements of technology. This may thus manifest in a variety of ways throughout the financial services sector. This study seeks out to examine current operational risks management being experienced by microfinance providers in Malaysia; investigate the process of current practices on facilitator control factor mechanisms, and explore how the adoption of technology, innovation and use of management accounting practices would affect the risk management process of operation system in microfinance providers in Malaysia. A case study method was employed in this study. The case study also need to find that the vital past role of management accounting will be used for mitigation of risk management activities towards accountability as an information or guideline to microfinance provider. An empirical element obtainable with qualitative method is needed in this study, where multipart and in-depth information are essential to understand the issues of these institution phenomena. This study is expected to propose a theoretical model for implementation of technology, innovation and management accounting practices into the system of operation to improve internal control and subsequently lead to mitigation of risk management activities among microfinance providers to be more successful.

Keywords: microfinance, accountability, operational risks, management accounting practices

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Authors: Mekonen Hailu, Liu Liping

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Cage aquaculture is highly preferred due to higher production per unit volume of water, lower costs of investment, and simpler routine farm management procedures compared to pond systems. In the 1980s, cage culture was first used on a trial basis in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 20 years, a small number of prosperous freshwater cage culture operations have started to emerge in Egypt, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Brackish and marine cage culture also offers a lot of potential, although this subsector hasn't seen any significant commercial growth to date. In 2019, 263 cage aquaculture installations on the African inland waters on 18 water bodies within eight countries with an estimated 20,114 cages were reported. The lakes Victoria, Kariba, Volta, and River Volta, which together account for 82.9% of all cage aquaculture installations regarded as sub-Saharan Africa's principal cage aquaculture regions (Fig 1). Except few small-scale trials with North African catfish (Clarias gariepinus), almost all farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and Egypt grow Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). More than 247,398 tonnes of fish are produced yearly from ten African countries through cage aquaculture. The expansion of cage culture in Africa provides job opportunities for both skilled and unskilled workers, nutritious food and foreign currency. The escaping non-native strains of tilapia in Lake Volta and the occurrence of a risky Tilapia lake virus (syncytial hepatitis), which has the potential to wipe out entire populations in both wild and farmed Nile tilapia on Lake Victoria, are threats coming with the expansion of cage aquaculture in Africa. In addition, the installations of 138 cage aquacultures were found in contrary to best cage culture practices. To sustain cage aquaculture development and maintain harmony with other water uses, developers must strictly abide by best practices. Hence, the exclusion of protected areas and small lakes (average depth 5 m or less) should be done, as well an Environmental Impact Assessment should be conducted before establishing the cage farms.

Keywords: Africa, cage aquaculture, production, threats

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Authors: Akinwale Adeyinka

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Critical natural resources such as clean ground water, fertile topsoil, and biodiversity are diminishing at an exponential rate, orders of magnitude above that at which they can be regenerated. Based on news on world population record, over 6 billion people on earth, and almost a quarter million added each day, the scale of human activity and environmental impact is unprecedented. Soaring human population growth over the past century has created a visible challenge to earth’s life support systems. In addition, the world faces an onslaught of other environmental threats including degenerated global climate change, global warming, intensified acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion and health threatening pollution. Overpopulation and the use of deleterious technologies combine to increase the scale of human activities to a level that underlies these entire problems. These intensifying trends cannot continue indefinitely, hopefully, through increased understanding and valuation of ecosystems and their services, earth’s basic life-support system will be protected for the future.To say the fact, human civilization is now the dominant cause of change in the global environment. Now that our relationship to the earth has change so utterly, we have to see that change and understand its implication. These are actually 2 aspects to the challenges which we should believe. The first is to realize that our power to harm the earth can indeed have global and even permanent effects. Second is to realize that the only way to understand our new role as a co-architect of nature is to see ourselves as part of a complex system that does operate according to the same simple rules of cause and effect we are used to. So understanding the physical/biological dimension of earth system is an important precondition for making sensible policy to protect our environment. Because we believe Sustainable Development Is a matter of reconciling respect for the environment, social equity and economic profitability. Also, we strongly believe that environmental protection is naturally about reducing air and water pollution, but it also includes the improvement of the environmental performance of existing process. That is why we should always have it at the heart of our business that the environmental problem is not our effect on the environment so much as our relationship with the environment. We should always think of being environmental friendly in our operation.

Keywords: Stratospheric ozone depletion ion , Climate Change, global warming, social equity and economic profitability

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Hanan. Al Chaghouri, Mohammad Azad Malik, P. John Thomas, Paul O’Brien

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The process of assembling metal nanoparticles at the interface of two liquids has received a great deal of attention over the past few years due to a wide range of important applications and their unusual properties as compared to bulk materials. We present a low cost, simple and cheap synthesis of metal nanoparticles, core/shell structures and semiconductors followed by assembly of these particles between immiscible liquids. The aim of this talk is divided to three parts: Firstly, to describe the achievement of a closed loop recycling for producing cadmium sulfide as powders and/or nanostructured thin films for solar cells or other optoelectronic devices applications by using a different chain length of commercially available secondary amines of dithiocarbamato complexes. The approach can be extended to other metal sulfides such as those of Zn, Pb, Cu, or Fe and many transition metals and oxides. Secondly, to synthesis significantly cheaper magnetic particles suited for the mass market. Ni/NiO nanoparticles with ferromagnetic properties at room temperature were among the smallest and strongest magnets (5 nm) were made in solution. The applications of this work can be to produce viable storage devices and the other possibility is to disperse these nanocrystals in solution and use it to make ferrofluids which have a number of mature applications. The third part is about preparing and assembling of submicron silver, cobalt and nickel particles by using polyol methods and liquid/liquid interface, respectively. Coinage metals like gold, copper and silver are suitable for plasmonic thin film solar cells because of their low resistivity and strong interactions with visible light waves. Silver is the best choice for solar cell application since it has low absorption losses and high radiative efficiency compared to gold and copper. Assembled cobalt and nickel as films are promising for spintronic, magnetic and magneto-electronic and biomedics.

Keywords: metal nanoparticles, core/shell structures and semiconductors, ferromagnetic properties, closed loop recycling, liquid/liquid interface

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Authors: Krassimir Todorov

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The purpose of the paper is to redefine the levels of structure of corporate, business and functional strategies that were established over the past several decades, to a conceptual model, consisting of corporate, business and operations strategies, that are reinforced by functional strategies. We will propose a conceptual framework of different perspectives in the role of strategic operations as a separate strategic place and reposition the remaining functional strategies as supporting tools, existing at all three levels. The proposed model is called ‘the strategic engine’, since the mutual relationships of its ingredients are identical with main elements and working principle of the internal combustion engine. Based on theoretical essence, related to every strategic level, we will prove that the strategic engine model is useful for managers seeking to safeguard the competitive advantage of their companies. Each strategy level is researched through its basic elements. At the corporate level we examine the scope of firm’s product, the vertical and geographical coverage. At the business level, the point of interest is limited to the SWOT analysis’ basic elements. While at operations level, the key research issue relates to the scope of the following performance indicators: cost, quality, speed, flexibility and dependability. In this relationship, the paper provides a different view for the role of operations strategy within the overall strategy concept. We will prove that the theoretical essence of operations goes far beyond the scope of traditionally accepted business functions. Exploring the applications of Resource-based theory and Market-based theory within the strategic levels framework, we will prove that there is a logical consequence of the theoretical impact in corporate, business and operations strategy – at every strategic level, the validity of one theory is substituted to the level of the other. Practical application of the conceptual model is tested in automotive industry. Actually, the proposed theoretical concept is inspired by a leading global automotive group – Inchcape PLC, listed on the London Stock Exchange, and constituent of the FTSE 250 Index.

Keywords: business strategy, corporate strategy, functional strategies, operations strategy

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Authors: Tasneem Chopra

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The 1968 Summer Olympics will forever be remembered for the silent protest against racism exhibited by American athletes Tommy Smith and John Carlos. Also standing on the medal podium was Australian Peter Norman, whose silent solidarity as a white sportsman completes the powerful, evocative image of that night in Mexico City. In the 50 years since Norman’s stance of solidarity with his American counterparts, Australian sports has traveled a wide arc of racism narratives, with athletes still experiencing episodes of bigotry, both on the pitch and elsewhere. Aboriginal athletes, like tennis champion Yvonne Goolagong, have endured the plaudits of appreciation for their achievements on both the national and international stage, while simultaneously being subject to both prejudice and even questions as to their right to represent their country as full, acceptable citizens. Racism in Australia is directed toward Australian athletes of colour as well as foreign sportspeople who visit the country. The complex, mutating nature of racism in Australia is also informed by the culture of silence, where fellow athletes stand mute in light of their colleagues’ experience with bigotry. This paper analyses the phenomenon of sports racism in Australia over the past fifty years, culminating in the most recent showdown between Heretier Lumumba, former Collingwood football player, and his public allegations of racism experienced by team mates over his 10 year career. It shall examine the treatment and mistreatment of athletes because of their race and will further assess how such public perceptions both shape Australian culture or are themselves a manifestation of preexisting pathologies of bigotry. Further, it will examine the efficacy of anti-racism initiatives in responding to this hate. This paper will analyse the growing influence of corporate and media entities in crafting the economics of Australian sports and assess the role of such factors in creating the narrative of racism in the nation, both as a sociological reality as well as a marker of national identity. Finally, this paper will examine the political, social and economic forces that contribute to the culture of silence in Australian society in defying racism.

Keywords: aboriginal, Australia, corporations, silence

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Authors: Eyup Dogan

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The number of research articles analyzing the integration properties of energy variables has rapidly increased in the energy literature for about a decade. The stochastic behaviors of energy variables are worth knowing due to several reasons. For instance, national policies to conserve or promote energy consumption, which should be taken as shocks to energy consumption, will have transitory effects in energy consumption if energy consumption is found to be stationary in one country. Furthermore, it is also important to know the order of integration to employ an appropriate econometric model. Despite being an important subject for applied energy (economics) and having a huge volume of studies, several known limitations still exist with the existing literature. For example, many of the studies use aggregate energy consumption and national level data. In addition, a huge part of the literature is either multi-country studies or solely focusing on the U.S. This is the first study in the literature that considers a form of energy consumption by sectors at sub-national level. This research study aims at investigating unit root properties of electricity consumption for 12 regions of Turkey by four sectors in addition to total electricity consumption for the purpose of filling the mentioned limits in the literature. In this regard, we analyze stationarity properties of 60 cases . Because the use of multiple unit root tests make the results robust and consistent, we apply Dickey-Fuller unit root test based on Generalized Least Squares regression (DFGLS), Phillips-Perron unit root test (PP) and Zivot-Andrews unit root test with one endogenous structural break (ZA). The main finding of this study is that electricity consumption is trend stationary in 7 cases according to DFGLS and PP, whereas it is stationary process in 12 cases when we take into account the structural change by applying ZA. Thus, shocks to electricity consumption have transitory effects in those cases; namely, agriculture in region 1, region 4 and region 7, industrial in region 5, region 8, region 9, region 10 and region 11, business in region 4, region 7 and region 9, total electricity consumption in region 11. Regarding policy implications, policies to decrease or stimulate the use of electricity have a long-run impact on electricity consumption in 80% of cases in Turkey given that 48 cases are non-stationary process. On the other hand, the past behavior of electricity consumption can be used to predict the future behavior of that in 12 cases only.

Keywords: unit root, electricity consumption, sectoral data, subnational data

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Authors: Amin Asgarian, Ghyslaine McClure

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Experiences in the past earthquakes have clearly demonstrated the necessity of seismic design and assessment of Non-Structural Components (NSCs) particularly in post-disaster structures such as hospitals, power plants, etc. as they have to be permanently functional and operational. Meeting this objective is contingent upon having proper seismic performance of both structural and non-structural components. Proper seismic design, analysis, and assessment of NSCs can be attained through generation of Floor Design Spectrum (FDS) in a similar fashion as target spectrum for structural components. This paper presents the developed methodology to generate FDS directly from corresponding Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS) (i.e. design spectra for structural components). The methodology is based on the experimental and numerical analysis of a database of 27 real Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings which are located in Montreal, Canada. The buildings were tested by Ambient Vibration Measurements (AVM) and their dynamic properties have been extracted and used as part of the approach. Database comprises 12 low-rises, 10 medium-rises, and 5 high-rises and they are mostly designated as post-disaster\emergency shelters by the city of Montreal. The buildings are subjected to 20 compatible seismic records to UHS of Montreal and Floor Response Spectra (FRS) are developed for every floors in two horizontal direction considering four different damping ratios of NSCs (i.e. 2, 5, 10, and 20 % viscous damping). Generated FRS (approximately 132’000 curves) are statistically studied and the methodology is proposed to generate the FDS directly from corresponding UHS. The approach is capable of generating the FDS for any selection of floor level and damping ratio of NSCs. It captures the effect of: dynamic interaction between primary (structural) and secondary (NSCs) systems, higher and torsional modes of primary structure. These are important improvements of this approach compared to conventional methods and code recommendations. Application of the proposed approach are represented here through two real case-study buildings: one low-rise building and one medium-rise. The proposed approach can be used as practical and robust tool for seismic assessment and design of NSCs especially in existing post-disaster structures.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, operational and functional components, operational modal analysis, seismic assessment and design

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