Search results for: prediction model accuracy
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19942

Search results for: prediction model accuracy

17842 Assessing an Instrument Usability: Response Interpolation and Scale Sensitivity

Authors: Betsy Ng, Seng Chee Tan, Choon Lang Quek, Peter Looker, Jaime Koh

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The purpose of the present study was to determine the particular scale rating that stands out for an instrument. The instrument was designed to assess student perceptions of various learning environments, namely face-to-face, online and blended. The original instrument had a 5-point Likert items (1 = strongly disagree and 5 = strongly agree). Alternate versions were modified with a 6-point Likert scale and a bar scale rating. Participants consisted of undergraduates in a local university were involved in the usability testing of the instrument in an electronic setting. They were presented with the 5-point, 6-point and percentage-bar (100-point) scale ratings, in response to their perceptions of learning environments. The 5-point and 6-point Likert scales were presented in the form of radio button controls for each number, while the percentage-bar scale was presented with a sliding selection. Among these responses, 6-point Likert scale emerged to be the best overall. When participants were confronted with the 5-point items, they either chose 3 or 4, suggesting that data loss could occur due to the insensitivity of instrument. The insensitivity of instrument could be due to the discreet options, as evidenced by response interpolation. To avoid the constraint of discreet options, the percentage-bar scale rating was tested, but the participant responses were not well-interpolated. The bar scale might have provided a variety of responses without a constraint of a set of categorical options, but it seemed to reflect a lack of perceived and objective accuracy. The 6-point Likert scale was more likely to reflect a respondent’s perceived and objective accuracy as well as higher sensitivity. This finding supported the conclusion that 6-point Likert items provided a more accurate measure of the participant’s evaluation. The 5-point and bar scale ratings might not be accurately measuring the participants’ responses. This study highlighted the importance of the respondent’s perception of accuracy, respondent’s true evaluation, and the scale’s ease of use. Implications and limitations of this study were also discussed.

Keywords: usability, interpolation, sensitivity, Likert scales, accuracy

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17841 Dynamic Compensation for Environmental Temperature Variation in the Coolant Refrigeration Cycle as a Means of Increasing Machine-Tool Precision

Authors: Robbie C. Murchison, Ibrahim Küçükdemiral, Andrew Cowell

Abstract:

Thermal effects are the largest source of dimensional error in precision machining, and a major proportion is caused by ambient temperature variation. The use of coolant is a primary means of mitigating these effects, but there has been limited work on coolant temperature control. This research critically explored whether CNC-machine coolant refrigeration systems adapted to actively compensate for ambient temperature variation could increase machining accuracy. Accuracy data were collected from operators’ checklists for a CNC 5-axis mill and statistically reduced to bias and precision metrics for observations of one day over a sample period of 27 days. Temperature data were collected using three USB dataloggers in ambient air, the chiller inflow, and the chiller outflow. The accuracy and temperature data were analysed using Pearson correlation, then the thermodynamics of the system were described using system identification with MATLAB. It was found that 75% of thermal error is reflected in the hot coolant temperature but that this is negligibly dependent on ambient temperature. The effect of the coolant refrigeration process on hot coolant outflow temperature was also found to be negligible. Therefore, the evidence indicated that it would not be beneficial to adapt coolant chillers to compensate for ambient temperature variation. However, it is concluded that hot coolant outflow temperature is a robust and accessible source of thermal error data which could be used for prevention strategy evaluation or as the basis of other thermal error strategies.

Keywords: CNC manufacturing, machine-tool, precision machining, thermal error

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
17840 Safety-critical Alarming Strategy Based on Statistically Defined Slope Deformation Behaviour Model Case Study: Upright-dipping Highwall in a Coal Mining Area

Authors: Lintang Putra Sadewa, Ilham Prasetya Budhi

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Slope monitoring program has now become a mandatory campaign for any open pit mines around the world to operate safely. Utilizing various slope monitoring instruments and strategies, miners are now able to deliver precise decisions in mitigating the risk of slope failures which can be catastrophic. Currently, the most sophisticated slope monitoring technology available is the Slope Stability Radar (SSR), whichcan measure wall deformation in submillimeter accuracy. One of its eminent features is that SSRcan provide a timely warning by automatically raise an alarm when a predetermined rate-of-movement threshold is reached. However, establishing proper alarm thresholds is arguably one of the onerous challenges faced in any slope monitoring program. The difficulty mainly lies in the number of considerations that must be taken when generating a threshold becausean alarm must be effectivethat it should limit the occurrences of false alarms while alsobeing able to capture any real wall deformations. In this sense, experience shows that a site-specific alarm thresholdtendsto produce more reliable results because it considers site distinctive variables. This study will attempt to determinealarming thresholds for safety-critical monitoring based on an empirical model of slope deformation behaviour that is defined statistically fromdeformation data captured by the Slope Stability Radar (SSR). The study area comprises of upright-dipping highwall setting in a coal mining area with intense mining activities, andthe deformation data used for the study were recorded by the SSR throughout the year 2022. The model is site-specific in nature thus, valuable information extracted from the model (e.g., time-to-failure, onset-of-acceleration, and velocity) will be applicable in setting up site-specific alarm thresholds and will give a clear understanding of how deformation trends evolve over the area.

Keywords: safety-critical monitoring, alarming strategy, slope deformation behaviour model, coal mining

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17839 The Use of Artificial Intelligence to Identify Ore-Prospective Territories in East Kazakhstan

Authors: O. D. Gavrilenko, N. M Temirbekov, Z. A. Mustafina

Abstract:

This article discusses the possibility of using machine learning algorithms to analyze and synthesize historical geological data with mathematical geophysics and geochemistry data, as well as Earth remote sensing (ERS) results. Creating geoinformation systems for such Big Data with their subsequent processing using artificial intelligence methods provides unique opportunities for more accurate minerogenic zoning of territories, which significantly increases the efficiency of geological exploration. This will improve the accuracy of geological exploration and forecast zones with potential mineral resources.

Keywords: methods of remote sensing of the earth, geographic information systems, artificial intelligence, geological geophysical geochemical and minerogenic data, minerogenic model

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17838 Analysis and Forecasting of Bitcoin Price Using Exogenous Data

Authors: J-C. Leneveu, A. Chereau, L. Mansart, T. Mesbah, M. Wyka

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Extracting and interpreting information from Big Data represent a stake for years to come in several sectors such as finance. Currently, numerous methods are used (such as Technical Analysis) to try to understand and to anticipate market behavior, with mixed results because it still seems impossible to exactly predict a financial trend. The increase of available data on Internet and their diversity represent a great opportunity for the financial world. Indeed, it is possible, along with these standard financial data, to focus on exogenous data to take into account more macroeconomic factors. Coupling the interpretation of these data with standard methods could allow obtaining more precise trend predictions. In this paper, in order to observe the influence of exogenous data price independent of other usual effects occurring in classical markets, behaviors of Bitcoin users are introduced in a model reconstituting Bitcoin value, which is elaborated and tested for prediction purposes.

Keywords: big data, bitcoin, data mining, social network, financial trends, exogenous data, global economy, behavioral finance

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17837 Filter for the Measurement of Supraharmonics in Distribution Networks

Authors: Sivaraman Karthikeyan

Abstract:

Due to rapidly developing power electronics devices and technologies such as power line communication or self-commutating converters, voltage and current distortion, as well as interferences, have increased in the frequency range of 2 kHz to 150 kHz; there is an urgent need for regulation of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) standards in this frequency range. Measuring or testing compliance with emission and immunity limitations necessitates the use of precise, repeatable measuring methods. Appropriate filters to minimize the fundamental component and its harmonics below 2 kHz in the measuring signal would improve the measurement accuracy in this frequency range leading to better analysis. This paper discusses filter suggestions in the current measurement standard and proposes an infinite impulse response (IIR) filter design that is optimized for a low number of poles, strong fundamental damping, and high accuracy above 2 kHz. The new filter’s transfer function is delivered as a result. An analog implementation is derived from the overall design.

Keywords: supraharmonics, 2 kHz, 150 kHz, filter, analog filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
17836 Validation of a Fluid-Structure Interaction Model of an Aortic Dissection versus a Bench Top Model

Authors: K. Khanafer

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The aim of this investigation was to validate the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model of type B aortic dissection with our experimental results from a bench-top-model. Another objective was to study the relationship between the size of a septectomy that increases the outflow of the false lumen and its effect on the values of the differential of pressure between true lumen and false lumen. FSI analysis based on Galerkin’s formulation was used in this investigation to study flow pattern and hemodynamics within a flexible type B aortic dissection model using boundary conditions from our experimental data. The numerical results of our model were verified against the experimental data for various tear size and location. Thus, CFD tools have a potential role in evaluating different scenarios and aortic dissection configurations.

Keywords: aortic dissection, fluid-structure interaction, in vitro model, numerical

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17835 Assessment of Air Pollutant Dispersion and Soil Contamination: The Critical Role of MATLAB Modeling in Evaluating Emissions from the Covanta Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Facility

Authors: Jadon Matthiasa, Cindy Donga, Ali Al Jibouria, Hsin Kuo

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The environmental impact of emissions from the Covanta Waste-to-Energy facility in Burnaby, BC, was comprehensively evaluated, focusing on the dispersion of air pollutants and the subsequent assessment of heavy metal contamination in surrounding soils. A Gaussian Plume Model, implemented in MATLAB, was utilized to simulate the dispersion of key pollutants to understand their atmospheric behaviour and potential deposition patterns. The MATLAB code developed for this study enhanced the accuracy of pollutant concentration predictions and provided capabilities for visualizing pollutant dispersion in 3D plots. Furthermore, the code could predict the maximum concentration of pollutants at ground level, eliminating the need to use the Ranchoux model for predictions. Complementing the modelling approach, empirical soil sampling and analysis were conducted to evaluate heavy metal concentrations in the vicinity of the facility. This integrated methodology underscored the importance of computational modelling in air pollution assessment and highlighted the necessity of soil analysis to obtain a holistic understanding of environmental impacts. The findings emphasized the effectiveness of current emissions controls while advocating for ongoing monitoring to safeguard public health and environmental integrity.

Keywords: air emissions, Gaussian Plume Model, MATLAB, soil contamination, air pollution monitoring, waste-to-energy, pollutant dispersion visualization, heavy metal analysis, environmental impact assessment, emission control effectiveness

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17834 Toward a Risk Assessment Model Based on Multi-Agent System for Cloud Consumer

Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

Procedia PDF Downloads 549
17833 Reliability of Cores Test Result at Elevated Temperature in Case of High Strength Concrete (HSC)

Authors: Waqas Ali

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Concrete is broadly used as a structural material in the construction of buildings. When the concrete is exposed to elevated temperature, its strength evaluation is very necessary in the existing structure. In this study, the effect of temperature and the reliability of the core test has been evaluated. For this purpose, the cylindrical cores were extracted from High strength concrete (HSC) specimens that were exposed to the temperature ranging from 300 ℃ to 900 ℃ with a constant duration of 4 hr. This study compares the difference between the standard heated cylinders and the cores taken from them after curing of 90 days. The difference of cylindrical control and binary mix samples and extracted cores revealed that there is 12.19 and 12.38% difference at 300℃, while this difference was found to increase up to 12.89%, 13.03% at 500 ℃. Furthermore, this value is recorded as 12.99%, 13.57% and 14.40%, 14.38% at 700 ℃ and 900 ℃, respectively. A total of four equations were developed through a regression model for the prediction of the strength of concrete for both standard cylinders and extracted cores whose R square values were 0.9733, 0.9627 and 0.9473, 0.9452, respectively.

Keywords: high strength, temperature, core, reliability

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17832 Analytical Development of a Failure Limit and Iso-Uplift Curves for Eccentrically Loaded Shallow Foundations

Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

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Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic ‎response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation ‎limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction ‎of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the ‎foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: foundation uplift, iso-uplift curves, resistance domain, soil yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 387
17831 Modification of Newton Method in Two Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulas

Authors: Khairil I. Othman, Nur N. Kamal, Zarina B. Ibrahim

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In this paper, we present modified Newton method as a new strategy for improving the efficiency of Two Point Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (BBDF) when solving stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These methods are constructed to produce two approximate solutions simultaneously at each iteration The detailed implementation of the predictor corrector BBDF with PE(CE)2 with modified Newton are discussed. The proposed modification of BBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing Block Backward Differentiation Formula. Numerical results show the advantage of using the new strategy for solving stiff ODEs in improving the accuracy of the solution.

Keywords: newton method, two point, block, accuracy

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17830 Bioclimatic Niches of Endangered Garcinia indica Species on the Western Ghats: Predicting Habitat Suitability under Current and Future Climate

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
17829 Intrusion Detection in Cloud Computing Using Machine Learning

Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar

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With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.

Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
17828 Stability Analysis of Rabies Model with Vaccination Effect and Culling in Dogs

Authors: Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, Folashade Agusto, Lina Aryati, Syamsuddin Toaha, Suzanne Lenhart, Widodo, Willy Govaerts

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of rabies virus in the wild dogs-domestic dogs-human zoonotic cycle. The effect of vaccination and culling in dogs is considered on the model, then the stability was analysed to get basic reproduction number. We use the next generation matrix method and Routh-Hurwitz test to analyze the stability of the Disease-Free Equilibrium and Endemic Equilibrium of this model.

Keywords: stability analysis, rabies model, vaccination effect, culling in dogs

Procedia PDF Downloads 634
17827 Laminar Separation Bubble Prediction over an Airfoil Using Transition SST Turbulence Model on Moderate Reynolds Number

Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×10⁵ and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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17826 Emotion Detection in Twitter Messages Using Combination of Long Short-Term Memory and Convolutional Deep Neural Networks

Authors: Bahareh Golchin, Nooshin Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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17825 The Identification of Combined Genomic Expressions as a Diagnostic Factor for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Authors: Ki-Yeo Kim

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Trends in genetics are transforming in order to identify differential coexpressions of correlated gene expression rather than the significant individual gene. Moreover, it is known that a combined biomarker pattern improves the discrimination of a specific cancer. The identification of the combined biomarker is also necessary for the early detection of invasive oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). To identify the combined biomarker that could improve the discrimination of OSCC, we explored an appropriate number of genes in a combined gene set in order to attain the highest level of accuracy. After detecting a significant gene set, including the pre-defined number of genes, a combined expression was identified using the weights of genes in a gene set. We used the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for the weight calculation. In this process, we used three public microarray datasets. One dataset was used for identifying the combined biomarker, and the other two datasets were used for validation. The discrimination accuracy was measured by the out-of-bag (OOB) error. There was no relation between the significance and the discrimination accuracy in each individual gene. The identified gene set included both significant and insignificant genes. One of the most significant gene sets in the classification of normal and OSCC included MMP1, SOCS3 and ACOX1. Furthermore, in the case of oral dysplasia and OSCC discrimination, two combined biomarkers were identified. The combined genomic expression achieved better performance in the discrimination of different conditions than in a single significant gene. Therefore, it could be expected that accurate diagnosis for cancer could be possible with a combined biomarker.

Keywords: oral squamous cell carcinoma, combined biomarker, microarray dataset, correlated genes

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17824 Advanced Numerical and Analytical Methods for Assessing Concrete Sewers and Their Remaining Service Life

Authors: Amir Alani, Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Anna Romanova, Asaad Faramarzi

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Pipelines are extensively used engineering structures which convey fluid from one place to another. Most of the time, pipelines are placed underground and are encumbered by soil weight and traffic loads. Corrosion of pipe material is the most common form of pipeline deterioration and should be considered in both the strength and serviceability analysis of pipes. The study in this research focuses on concrete pipes in sewage systems (concrete sewers). This research firstly investigates how to involve the effect of corrosion as a time dependent process of deterioration in the structural and failure analysis of this type of pipe. Then three probabilistic time dependent reliability analysis methods including the first passage probability theory, the gamma distributed degradation model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are discussed and developed. Sensitivity analysis indexes which can be used to identify the most important parameters that affect pipe failure are also discussed. The reliability analysis methods developed in this paper contribute as rational tools for decision makers with regard to the strengthening and rehabilitation of existing pipelines. The results can be used to obtain a cost-effective strategy for the management of the sewer system.

Keywords: reliability analysis, service life prediction, Monte Carlo simulation method, first passage probability theory, gamma distributed degradation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 460
17823 A Generalized Framework for Adaptive Machine Learning Deployments in Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Robert Caulk

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A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

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17822 The DC Behavioural Electrothermal Model of Silicon Carbide Power MOSFETs under SPICE

Authors: Lakrim Abderrazak, Tahri Driss

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This paper presents a new behavioural electrothermal model of power Silicon Carbide (SiC) MOSFET under SPICE. This model is based on the MOS model level 1 of SPICE, in which phenomena such as Drain Leakage Current IDSS, On-State Resistance RDSon, gate Threshold voltage VGSth, the transconductance (gfs), I-V Characteristics Body diode, temperature-dependent and self-heating are included and represented using behavioural blocks ABM (Analog Behavioural Models) of Spice library. This ultimately makes this model flexible and easily can be integrated into the various Spice -based simulation softwares. The internal junction temperature of the component is calculated on the basis of the thermal model through the electric power dissipated inside and its thermal impedance in the form of the localized Foster canonical network. The model parameters are extracted from manufacturers' data (curves data sheets) using polynomial interpolation with the method of simulated annealing (S A) and weighted least squares (WLS). This model takes into account the various important phenomena within transistor. The effectiveness of the presented model has been verified by Spice simulation results and as well as by data measurement for SiC MOS transistor C2M0025120D CREE (1200V, 90A).

Keywords: SiC power MOSFET, DC electro-thermal model, ABM Spice library, SPICE modelling, behavioural model, C2M0025120D CREE.

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17821 Improving Predictions of Coastal Benthic Invertebrate Occurrence and Density Using a Multi-Scalar Approach

Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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17820 Enhancing Temporal Extrapolation of Wind Speed Using a Hybrid Technique: A Case Study in West Coast of Denmark

Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

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17819 Post-Earthquake Road Damage Detection by SVM Classification from Quickbird Satellite Images

Authors: Moein Izadi, Ali Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Detection of damaged parts of roads after earthquake is essential for coordinating rescuers. In this study, an approach is presented for the semi-automatic detection of damaged roads in a city using pre-event vector maps and both pre- and post-earthquake QuickBird satellite images. Damage is defined in this study as the debris of damaged buildings adjacent to the roads. Some spectral and texture features are considered for SVM classification step to detect damages. Finally, the proposed method is tested on QuickBird pan-sharpened images from the Bam City earthquake and the results show that an overall accuracy of 81% and a kappa coefficient of 0.71 are achieved for the damage detection. The obtained results indicate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach.

Keywords: SVM classifier, disaster management, road damage detection, quickBird images

Procedia PDF Downloads 627
17818 Evaluation of Alternative Approaches for Additional Damping in Dynamic Calculations of Railway Bridges under High-Speed Traffic

Authors: Lara Bettinelli, Bernhard Glatz, Josef Fink

Abstract:

Planning engineers and researchers use various calculation models with different levels of complexity, calculation efficiency and accuracy in dynamic calculations of railway bridges under high-speed traffic. When choosing a vehicle model to depict the dynamic loading on the bridge structure caused by passing high-speed trains, different goals are pursued: On the one hand, the selected vehicle models should allow the calculation of a bridge’s vibrations as realistic as possible. On the other hand, the computational efficiency and manageability of the models should be preferably high to enable a wide range of applications. The commonly adopted and straightforward vehicle model is the moving load model (MLM), which simplifies the train to a sequence of static axle loads moving at a constant speed over the structure. However, the MLM can significantly overestimate the structure vibrations, especially when resonance events occur. More complex vehicle models, which depict the train as a system of oscillating and coupled masses, can reproduce the interaction dynamics between the vehicle and the bridge superstructure to some extent and enable the calculation of more realistic bridge accelerations. At the same time, such multi-body models require significantly greater processing capacities and precise knowledge of various vehicle properties. The European standards allow for applying the so-called additional damping method when simple load models, such as the MLM, are used in dynamic calculations. An additional damping factor depending on the bridge span, which should take into account the vibration-reducing benefits of the vehicle-bridge interaction, is assigned to the supporting structure in the calculations. However, numerous studies show that when the current standard specifications are applied, the calculation results for the bridge accelerations are in many cases still too high compared to the measured bridge accelerations, while in other cases, they are not on the safe side. A proposal to calculate the additional damping based on extensive dynamic calculations for a parametric field of simply supported bridges with a ballasted track was developed to address this issue. In this contribution, several different approaches to determine the additional damping of the supporting structure considering the vehicle-bridge interaction when using the MLM are compared with one another. Besides the standard specifications, this includes the approach mentioned above and two additional recently published alternative formulations derived from analytical approaches. For a bridge catalogue of 65 existing bridges in Austria in steel, concrete or composite construction, calculations are carried out with the MLM for two different high-speed trains and the different approaches for additional damping. The results are compared with the calculation results obtained by applying a more sophisticated multi-body model of the trains used. The evaluation and comparison of the results allow assessing the benefits of different calculation concepts for the additional damping regarding their accuracy and possible applications. The evaluation shows that by applying one of the recently published redesigned additional damping methods, the calculation results can reflect the influence of the vehicle-bridge interaction on the design-relevant structural accelerations considerably more reliable than by using normative specifications.

Keywords: Additional Damping Method, Bridge Dynamics, High-Speed Railway Traffic, Vehicle-Bridge-Interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
17817 An Automatic Model Transformation Methodology Based on Semantic and Syntactic Comparisons and the Granularity Issue Involved

Authors: Tiexin Wang, Sebastien Truptil, Frederick Benaben

Abstract:

Model transformation, as a pivotal aspect of Model-driven engineering, attracts more and more attentions both from researchers and practitioners. Many domains (enterprise engineering, software engineering, knowledge engineering, etc.) use model transformation principles and practices to serve to their domain specific problems; furthermore, model transformation could also be used to fulfill the gap between different domains: by sharing and exchanging knowledge. Since model transformation has been widely used, there comes new requirement on it: effectively and efficiently define the transformation process and reduce manual effort that involved in. This paper presents an automatic model transformation methodology based on semantic and syntactic comparisons, and focuses particularly on granularity issue that existed in transformation process. Comparing to the traditional model transformation methodologies, this methodology serves to a general purpose: cross-domain methodology. Semantic and syntactic checking measurements are combined into a refined transformation process, which solves the granularity issue. Moreover, semantic and syntactic comparisons are supported by software tool; manual effort is replaced in this way.

Keywords: automatic model transformation, granularity issue, model-driven engineering, semantic and syntactic comparisons

Procedia PDF Downloads 401
17816 Application of Smplify-X Algorithm with Enhanced Gender Classifier in 3D Human Pose Estimation

Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Miao Luo, Feng Qian

Abstract:

The widespread application of 3D human body reconstruction spans various fields. Smplify-X, an algorithm reliant on single-image input, employs three distinct body parameter templates, necessitating gender classification of individuals within the input image. Researchers employed a ResNet18 network to train a gender classifier within the Smplify-X framework, setting the threshold at 0.9, designating images falling below this threshold as having neutral gender. This model achieved 62.38% accurate predictions and 7.54% incorrect predictions. Our improvement involved refining the MobileNet network, resulting in a raised threshold of 0.97. Consequently, we attained 78.89% accurate predictions and a mere 0.2% incorrect predictions, markedly enhancing prediction precision and enabling more precise 3D human body reconstruction.

Keywords: SMPLX, mobileNet, gender classification, 3D human reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
17815 Partial Differential Equation-Based Modeling of Brain Response to Stimuli

Authors: Razieh Khalafi

Abstract:

The brain is the information processing centre of the human body. Stimuli in the form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research, we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modelling of EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for modelling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, EEG signal

Procedia PDF Downloads 557
17814 Upon One Smoothing Problem in Project Management

Authors: Dimitri Golenko-Ginzburg

Abstract:

A CPM network project with deterministic activity durations, in which activities require homogenous resources with fixed capacities, is considered. The problem is to determine the optimal schedule of starting times for all network activities within their maximal allowable limits (in order not to exceed the network's critical time) to minimize the maximum required resources for the project at any point in time. In case when a non-critical activity may start only at discrete moments with the pregiven time span, the problem becomes NP-complete and an optimal solution may be obtained via a look-over algorithm. For the case when a look-over requires much computational time an approximate algorithm is suggested. The algorithm's performance ratio, i.e., the relative accuracy error, is determined. Experimentation has been undertaken to verify the suggested algorithm.

Keywords: resource smoothing problem, CPM network, lookover algorithm, lexicographical order, approximate algorithm, accuracy estimate

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
17813 Computational Study on Traumatic Brain Injury Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Based 3D Viscoelastic Model

Authors: Tanu Khanuja, Harikrishnan N. Unni

Abstract:

Head is the most vulnerable part of human body and may cause severe life threatening injuries. As the in vivo brain response cannot be recorded during injury, computational investigation of the head model could be really helpful to understand the injury mechanism. Majority of the physical damage to living tissues are caused by relative motion within the tissue due to tensile and shearing structural failures. The present Finite Element study focuses on investigating intracranial pressure and stress/strain distributions resulting from impact loads on various sites of human head. This is performed by the development of the 3D model of a human head with major segments like cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem, CSF (cerebrospinal fluid), and skull from patient specific MRI (magnetic resonance imaging). The semi-automatic segmentation of head is performed using AMIRA software to extract finer grooves of the brain. To maintain the accuracy high number of mesh elements are required followed by high computational time. Therefore, the mesh optimization has also been performed using tetrahedral elements. In addition, model validation with experimental literature is performed as well. Hard tissues like skull is modeled as elastic whereas soft tissues like brain is modeled with viscoelastic prony series material model. This paper intends to obtain insights into the severity of brain injury by analyzing impacts on frontal, top, back, and temporal sites of the head. Yield stress (based on von Mises stress criterion for tissues) and intracranial pressure distribution due to impact on different sites (frontal, parietal, etc.) are compared and the extent of damage to cerebral tissues is discussed in detail. This paper finds that how the back impact is more injurious to overall head than the other. The present work would be helpful to understand the injury mechanism of traumatic brain injury more effectively.

Keywords: dynamic impact analysis, finite element analysis, intracranial pressure, MRI, traumatic brain injury, von Misses stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 165