Search results for: error minimization

Authors: Baguma Daniel Kajura

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The study explores socio-economic factors, health related and individual factors that influence the breastfeeding habits of mothers and their effect on the nutritional status of their infants in the Rwenzori region of Western Uganda. A cross-sectional research design was adopted, and it involved the use of self-administered questionnaires, interview guides, and focused group discussion guides to assess the extent to which socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices influence child malnutrition. Using this design, data was collected from 276 mother-paired infants out of the selected 318 mother-paired infants over a period of ten days. Using a sample size formula by Kish Leslie for cross-sectional studies N= Zα2 P (1- P) / δ2, where N= sample size estimate of paired mother paired infants. P= assumed true population prevalence of mother–paired infants with malnutrition cases, P = 29.3%. 1-P = the probability of mother-paired infants not having malnutrition, so 1-P = 70.7% Zα = Standard normal deviation at 95% confidence interval corresponding to 1.96.δ = Absolute error between the estimated and true population prevalence of malnutrition of 5%. The calculated sample size N = 1.96 × 1.96 (0.293 × 0.707) /0,052= 318 mother paired infants. Demographic and socio-economic data for all mothers were entered into Microsoft Excel software and then exported to STATA 14 (StataCorp, 2015). Anthropometric measurements were taken for all children by the researcher and the trained assistants who physically weighed the children. The use of immunization card was used to attain the age of the child. The bivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices and child malnutrition. The multivariable regression analysis was used to draw a conclusion on whether or not there are any true relationships between the socio-demographic factors associated with breastfeeding practices as independent variables and child stunting and underweight as dependent variables in relation to breastfeeding practices. Descriptive statistics on background characteristics of the mothers were generated and presented in frequency distribution tables. Frequencies and means were computed, and the results were presented using tables, then, we determined the distribution of stunting and underweight among infants by the socioeconomic and demographic factors. Findings reveal that children of mothers who used milk substitutes besides breastfeeding are over two times more likely to be stunted compared to those whose mothers exclusively breastfed them. Feeding children with milk substitutes instead of breastmilk predisposes them to both stunting and underweight. Children of mothers between 18 and 34 years of age are less likely to be underweight, as were those who were breastfed over ten times a day. The study further reveals that 55% of the children were underweight, and 49% were stunted. Of the underweight children, an equal number (58/151) were either mildly or moderately underweight (38%), and 23% (35/151) were severely underweight. Empowering community outreach programs by increasing knowledge and increased access to services on integrated management of child malnutrition is crucial to curbing child malnutrition in rural areas.

Keywords: infant and young child feeding, breastfeeding, child malnutrition, maternal health

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Authors: Tatiana N. Astakhova, Alexander E. Saprygin, Tatyana A. Golovko, Alexander N. Savostyanov, Mikhail S. Vlasov, Natalia V. Borisova, Alexandera G. Karpova, Urana N. Kavai-ool, Elena D. Mokur-ool, Nikolay A. Kolchanov, Lubomir I. Aftanas

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The study is dedicated to the research of brain activity in bilingual inhabitants of Siberia. We compared behavioral reactions and event-related potentials in Turkic-speaking inhabitants of Siberia (Tuvinians and Yakuts) and Russians. 63 healthy aboriginals of the Tyva Republic, 29 inhabitants of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, and 55 Russians from Novosibirsk participated in the study. All the healthy and right-handed participants, matched on age and sex, were students of different universities. EEG’s were recorded during the solving of linguistic tasks. In these tasks, participants had to find a syntax error in the written sentences. There were four groups of sentences: Russian, English, Tuvinian, and Yakut. All participants completed the tasks in Russian and English. Additionally, Tuvinians and Yakuts completed the tasks in Tuvinian or Yakut respectively. For Russians, EEG's were recorded using 128-channels according to the extended International 10-10 system, and the signals were amplified using “Neuroscan (USA)” amplifiers. For Tuvinians and Yakuts, EEG's were recorded using 64-channels and amplifiers Brain Products, Germany. In all groups, 0.3-100 Hz analog filtering and sampling rate 1000 Hz were used. As parameters of behavioral reactions, response speed and the accuracy of recognition were used. Event-related potentials (ERP) responses P300 and P600 were used as indicators of brain activity. The behavioral reactions showed that in Russians, the response speed for Russian was faster than for English. Also, the accuracy of solving tasks was higher for Russian than for English. The peak P300 in Russians were higher for English, the peak P600 in the left temporal cortex were higher for the Russian language. Both Tuvinians and Yakuts have no difference in accuracy of solving tasks in Russian and in their respective national languages. However, the response speed was faster for tasks in Russian than for tasks in their national language. Tuvinians and Yakuts showed bad accuracy in English, but the response speed was higher for English than for Russian and the national languages. This can be explained by the fact that they did not think carefully and gave a random answer for English. In Tuvinians, The P300 and P600 amplitudes and cortical topology were the same for Russian and Tuvinian and different for English. In Yakuts, the P300 and P600 amplitudes and topology of ERP for Russian were the same as what Russians had for Russian. In Yakuts, brain reactions during Yakut and English comprehension had no difference, and were reflected to foreign language comprehension - while the Russian language comprehension was reflected to native language comprehension. We found out that the Tuvinians recognized both Russian and Tuvinian as native languages, and English as a foreign language. The Yakuts recognized both English and Yakut as a foreign language, and only Russian as a native language. According to the inquirer, both Tuvinians and Yakuts use the national language as a spoken language, whereas they don’t use it for writing. It can well be a reason that Yakuts perceive the Yakut writing language as a foreign language while writing Russian as their native.

Keywords: EEG, ERP, native and foreign languages comprehension, Siberian inhabitants

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Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn, Li-Chia Tai

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With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, low-power built-in sensors on Internet of Things devices, and communication technologies, location-aware services have become increasingly popular and have permeated every aspect of people’s lives. Global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) are the default method of providing continuous positioning services for ground and aerial vehicles, as well as consumer devices (smartphones, watches, notepads, etc.). However, the environment affects satellite positioning systems, particularly indoors, in dense urban and suburban cities enclosed by skyscrapers, or when deep shadows obscure satellite signals. This is because (1) indoor environments are more complicated due to the presence of many objects surrounding them; (2) reflection within the building is highly dependent on the surrounding environment, including the positions of objects and human activity; and (3) satellite signals cannot be reached in an indoor environment, and GNSS doesn't have enough power to penetrate building walls. GPS is also highly power-hungry, which poses a severe challenge for battery-powered IoT devices. Due to these challenges, IoT applications are limited. Consequently, precise, seamless, and ubiquitous Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) systems are crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 0.39 m, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 0.82 m. According to numerical results, SRCLoc improves positioning performance and reduces radio map construction costs significantly compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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Authors: Isobel M. Thompson, Dorian Audot, Dominic Hudson, Martin Warner, Joseph Banks

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Underwater fly kick is an essential skill in swimming, which can have a considerable impact upon overall race performance in competition, especially in sprint events. Reduced wave drags acting upon the body under the surface means that the underwater fly kick will potentially be the fastest the swimmer is travelling throughout the race. It is therefore critical to understand fly kicking techniques and determining biomechanical factors involved in the performance. Most previous studies assessing fly kick kinematics have focused on two-dimensional analysis; therefore, the three-dimensional elements of the underwater fly kick techniques are not well understood. Those studies that have investigated fly kicking techniques using three-dimensional methodologies have not reported full three-dimensional kinematics for the techniques observed, choosing to focus on one or two joints. There has not been a direct comparison completed on the results obtained using two-dimensional and three-dimensional analysis, and how these different approaches might affect the interpretation of subsequent results. The aim of this research is to quantify the differences in kinematics observed in underwater fly kicks obtained from both two and three-dimensional analyses of the same test conditions. In order to achieve this, a six-camera underwater Qualisys system was used to develop an experimental methodology suitable for assessing the kinematics of swimmer’s starts and turns. The cameras, capturing at a frequency of 100Hz, were arranged along the side of the pool spaced equally up to 20m creating a capture volume of 7m x 2m x 1.5m. Within the measurement volume, error levels were estimated at 0.8%. Prior to pool trials, participants completed a landside calibration in order to define joint center locations, as certain markers became occluded once the swimmer assumed the underwater fly kick position in the pool. Thirty-four reflective markers were placed on key anatomical landmarks, 9 of which were then removed for the pool-based trials. The fly-kick swimming conditions included in the analysis are as follows: maximum effort prone, 100m pace prone, 200m pace prone, 400m pace prone, and maximum pace supine. All trials were completed from a push start to 15m to ensure consistent kick cycles were captured. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional kinematics are calculated from joint locations, and the results are compared. Key variables reported include kick frequency and kick amplitude, as well as full angular kinematics of the lower body. Key differences in these variables obtained from two-dimensional and three-dimensional analysis are identified. Internal rotation (up to 15º) and external rotation (up to -28º) were observed using three-dimensional methods. Abduction (5º) and adduction (15º) were also reported. These motions are not observed in the two-dimensional analysis. Results also give an indication of different techniques adopted by swimmers at various paces and orientations. The results of this research provide evidence of the strengths of both two dimensional and three dimensional motion capture methods in underwater fly kick, highlighting limitations which could affect the interpretation of results from both methods.

Keywords: swimming, underwater fly kick, performance, motion capture

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Authors: Daniel Tscharnuter, Eliza Truszkiewicz, Gerald Pinter

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High-quality surfaces of plastic parts can be achieved in a very cost-effective manner using in-mold processes, where e.g. scratch resistant or high gloss polymer films are pre-formed and subsequently receive their support structure by injection molding. The pre-forming may be done by high-pressure forming. In this process, a polymer sheet is heated and subsequently formed into the mold by pressurized air. Due to the heat transfer to the cooled mold the polymer temperature drops below its glass transition temperature. This ensures that the deformed microstructure is retained after depressurizing, giving the sheet its final formed shape. The development of a forming process relies heavily on the experience of engineers and trial-and-error procedures. Repeated mold design and testing cycles are however both time- and cost-intensive. It is, therefore, desirable to study the process using reliable computer simulations. Through simulations, the construction of the mold and the effect of various process parameters, e.g. temperature levels, non-uniform heating or timing and magnitude of pressure, on the deformation of the polymer sheet can be analyzed. Detailed knowledge of the deformation is particularly important in the forming of polymer films with integrated electro-optical functions. Care must be taken in the placement of devices, sensors and electrical and optical paths, which are far more sensitive to deformation than the polymers. Reliable numerical prediction of the deformation of the polymer sheets requires sophisticated material models. Polymer films are often either transversely isotropic or orthotropic due to molecular orientations induced during manufacturing. The anisotropic behavior affects the resulting strain field in the deformed film. For example, parts of the same shape but different strain fields may be created by varying the orientation of the film with respect to the mold. The numerical simulation of the high-pressure forming of such films thus requires material models that can capture the nonlinear anisotropic mechanical behavior. There are numerous commercial polymer grades for the engineers to choose from when developing a new part. The effort required for comprehensive material characterization may be prohibitive, especially when several materials are candidates for a specific application. We, therefore, propose a class of models for compressible hyperelasticity, which may be determined from basic experimental data and which can capture key features of the mechanical response. Invariant-based hyperelastic models with a reduced number of invariants are formulated in a semi-numerical way, such that the models are determined from a single uniaxial tensile tests for isotropic materials, or two tensile tests in the principal directions for transversely isotropic or orthotropic materials. The simulation of the high pressure forming of an orthotropic polymer film is finally done using an orthotropic formulation of the hyperelastic model.

Keywords: hyperelastic, anisotropic, polymer film, thermoforming

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Authors: Masoud Mirzaee, Ghobad Behzadi Pour

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An aircraft tire is designed to tolerate extremely heavy loads for a short duration. The number of tires increases with the weight of the aircraft, as it is needed to be distributed more evenly. Generally, aircraft tires work at high pressure, up to 200 psi (14 bar; 1,400 kPa) for airliners and higher for business jets. Tire assemblies for most aircraft categories provide a recommendation of compressed nitrogen that supports the aircraft’s weight on the ground, including a mechanism for controlling the aircraft during taxi, takeoff; landing; and traction for braking. Accurate tire pressure is a key factor that enables tire assemblies to perform reliably under high static and dynamic loads. Concerning ambient temperature change, considering the condition in which the temperature between the origin and destination airport was different, tire pressure should be adjusted and inflated to the specified operating pressure at the colder airport. This adjustment superseding the normal tire over an inflation limit of 5 percent at constant ambient temperature is required because the inflation pressure remains constant to support the load of a specified aircraft configuration. On the other hand, without this adjustment, a tire assembly would be significantly under/over-inflated at the destination. Due to an increase of human errors in the aviation industry, exorbitant costs are imposed on the airlines for providing consumable parts such as aircraft tires. The existence of an intelligent system to adjust the aircraft tire pressure based on weight, load, temperature, and weather conditions of origin and destination airports, could have a significant effect on reducing the aircraft maintenance costs, aircraft fuel and further improving the environmental issues related to the air pollution. An intelligent tire pressure regulation system (ITPRS) contains a processing computer, a nitrogen bottle with 1800 psi, and distribution lines. Nitrogen bottle’s inlet and outlet valves are installed in the main wheel landing gear’s area and are connected through nitrogen lines to main wheels and nose wheels assy. Controlling and monitoring of nitrogen will be performed by a computer, which is adjusted according to the calculations of received parameters, including the temperature of origin and destination airport, the weight of cargo loads and passengers, fuel quantity, and wind direction. Correct tire inflation and deflation are essential in assuring that tires can withstand the centrifugal forces and heat of normal operations, with an adequate margin of safety for unusual operating conditions such as rejected takeoff and hard landings. ITPRS will increase the performance of the aircraft in all phases of takeoff, landing, and taxi. Moreover, this system will reduce human errors, consumption materials, and stresses imposed on the aircraft body.

Keywords: avionic system, improve efficiency, ITPRS, human error, reduced cost, tire pressure

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Authors: A. Chatel, I. S. Torreguitart, T. Verstraete

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The paper deals with a single point optimization of the LS89 turbine using an adjoint optimization and defining the design variables within a CAD system. The advantage of including the CAD model in the design system is that higher level constraints can be imposed on the shape, allowing the optimized model or component to be manufactured. However, CAD-based approaches restrict the design space compared to node-based approaches where every node is free to move. In order to preserve a rich design space, we develop a methodology to refine the CAD model during the optimization and to create the best parameterization to use at each time. This study presents a methodology to progressively refine the design space, which combines parametric effectiveness with a differential evolutionary algorithm in order to create an optimal parameterization. In this manuscript, we show that by doing the parameterization at the CAD level, we can impose higher level constraints on the shape, such as the axial chord length, the trailing edge radius and G2 geometric continuity between the suction side and pressure side at the leading edge. Additionally, the adjoint sensitivities are filtered out and only smooth shapes are produced during the optimization process. The use of algorithmic differentiation for the CAD kernel and grid generator allows computing the grid sensitivities to machine accuracy and avoid the limited arithmetic precision and the truncation error of finite differences. Then, the parametric effectiveness is computed to rate the ability of a set of CAD design parameters to produce the design shape change dictated by the adjoint sensitivities. During the optimization process, the design space is progressively enlarged using the knot insertion algorithm which allows introducing new control points whilst preserving the initial shape. The position of the inserted knots is generally assumed. However, this assumption can hinder the creation of better parameterizations that would allow producing more localized shape changes where the adjoint sensitivities dictate. To address this, we propose using a differential evolutionary algorithm to maximize the parametric effectiveness by optimizing the location of the inserted knots. This allows the optimizer to gradually explore larger design spaces and to use an optimal CAD-based parameterization during the course of the optimization. The method is tested on the LS89 turbine cascade and large aerodynamic improvements in the entropy generation are achieved whilst keeping the exit flow angle fixed. The trailing edge and axial chord length, which are kept fixed as manufacturing constraints. The optimization results show that the multilevel optimizations were more efficient than the single level optimization, even though they used the same number of design variables at the end of the multilevel optimizations. Furthermore, the multilevel optimization where the parameterization is created using the optimal knot positions results in a more efficient strategy to reach a better optimum than the multilevel optimization where the position of the knots is arbitrarily assumed.

Keywords: adjoint, CAD, knots, multilevel, optimization, parametric effectiveness

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Authors: Elissandro Voigt Beier, Cristiano Poleto

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The main objective of the research is to assess the loss through the quantification of material culture (archaeological fragments) in rural areas, sites explored economically by machining on seasonal crops, and also permanent, in a hydrographic subsystem Camaquã River in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area consists of different micro basins and differs in area, ranging between 1,000 m² and 10,000 m², respectively the largest and the smallest, all with a large number of occurrences and outcrop locations of archaeological material and high density in intense farm environment. In the first stage of the research aimed to identify the dispersion of points of archaeological material through field survey through plot points by the Global Positioning System (GPS), within each river basin, was made use of concise bibliography on the topic in the region, helping theoretically in understanding the old landscaping with preferences of occupation for reasons of ancient historical people through the settlements relating to the practice observed in the field. The mapping was followed by the cartographic development in the region through the development of cartographic products of the land elevation, consequently were created cartographic products were to contribute to the understanding of the distribution of the absolute materials; the definition and scope of the material dispersed; and as a result of human activities the development of revolving letter by mechanization of in situ material, it was also necessary for the preparation of materials found density maps, linking natural environments conducive to ancient historical occupation with the current human occupation. The third stage of the project it is for the systematic collection of archaeological material without alteration or interference in the subsurface of the indigenous settlements, thus, the material was prepared and treated in the laboratory to remove soil excesses, cleaning through previous communication methodology, measurement and quantification. Approximately 15,000 were identified archaeological fragments belonging to different periods of ancient history of the region, all collected outside of its environmental and historical context and it also has quite changed and modified. The material was identified and cataloged considering features such as object weight, size, type of material (lithic, ceramic, bone, Historical porcelain and their true association with the ancient history) and it was disregarded its principles as individual lithology of the object and functionality same. As observed preliminary results, we can point out the change of materials by heavy mechanization and consequent soil disturbance processes, and these processes generate loading of archaeological materials. Therefore, as a next step will be sought, an estimate of potential losses through a mathematical model. It is expected by this process, to reach a reliable model of high accuracy which can be applied to an archeological site of lower density without encountering a significant error.

Keywords: degradation of heritage, quantification in archaeology, watershed, use and occupation of land

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Authors: Radik D. Aglyamov, Alexander K. Naumov, Alexey A. Shavelev, Oleg A. Morozov, Arsenij D. Shishkin, Yury P.Brodnikovsky, Alexander A.Karabutov, Alexander A. Oraevsky, Vadim V. Semashko

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The development of medical optoacoustic tomography with the using human blood as endogenic contrast agent is constrained by the lack of reliable, easy-to-use and inexpensive sources of high-power pulsed laser radiation in the spectral region of 750-900 nm [1-2]. Currently used titanium-sapphire, alexandrite lasers or optical parametric light oscillators do not provide the required and stable output characteristics, they are structurally complex, and their cost is up to half the price of diagnostic optoacoustic systems. Here we are developing the lasers based on Cr:LiCaAlF6 crystals which are free of abovementioned disadvantages and provides intensive ten’s ns-range tunable laser radiation at specific absorption bands of oxy- (~840 nm) and -deoxyhemoglobin (~757 nm) in the blood. Cr:LiCAF (с=3 at.%) crystals were grown in Kazan Federal University by the vertical directional crystallization (Bridgman technique) in graphite crucibles in a fluorinating atmosphere at argon overpressure (P=1500 hPa) [3]. The laser elements have cylinder shape with the diameter of 8 mm and 90 mm in length. The direction of the optical axis of the crystal was normal to the cylinder generatrix, which provides the π-polarized laser action correspondent to maximal stimulated emission cross-section. The flat working surfaces of the active elements were polished and parallel to each other with an error less than 10”. No any antireflection coating was applied. The Q-switched master oscillator-power amplifiers laser system (MOPA) with the dual-Xenon flashlamp pumping scheme in diffuse-reflectivity close-coupled head were realized. A specially designed laser cavity, consisting of dielectric highly reflective reflectors with a 2 m-curvature radius, a flat output mirror, a polarizer and Q-switch sell, makes it possible to operate sequentially in a circle (50 ns - laser one pulse after another) at wavelengths of 757 and 840 nm. The programmable pumping system from Tomowave Laser LLC (Russia) provided independent to each pulses (up to 250 J at 180 μs) pumping to equalize the laser radiation intensity at these wavelengths. The MOPA laser operates at 10 Hz pulse repetition rate with the output energy up to 210 mJ. Taking into account the limitations associated with physiological movements and other characteristics of patient tissues, the duration of laser pulses and their energy allows molecular and functional high-contrast imaging to depths of 5-6 cm with a spatial resolution of at least 1 mm. Highly likely the further comprehensive design of laser allows improving the output properties and realizing better spatial resolution of medical multispectral optoacoustic tomography systems.

Keywords: medical optoacoustic, endogenic contrast agent, multiwavelength tunable pulse lasers, MOPA laser system

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Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

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Authors: Mohammed Makha, Jakob Heier, Frank Nüesch, Roland Hany

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Organic solar cells (OSCs) have made rapid progress and currently achieve power conversion efficiencies (PCE) of over 10%. OSCs have several merits over other direct light-to-electricity generating cells and can be processed at low cost from solution on flexible substrates over large areas. Moreover, combining organic semiconductors with transparent and conductive electrodes allows for the fabrication of semitransparent OSCs (SM-OSCs). For SM-OSCs the challenge is to achieve a high average visible transmission (AVT) while maintaining a high short circuit current (Jsc). Typically, Jsc of SM-OSCs is smaller than when using an opaque metal top electrode. This is because the non-absorbed light during the first transit through the active layer and the transparent electrode is forward-transmitted out of the device. Recently, OSCs using a ternary blend of organic materials have received attention. This strategy was pursued to extend the light harvesting over the visible range. However, it is a general challenge to manipulate the performance of ternary OSCs in a predictable way, because many key factors affect the charge generation and extraction in ternary solar cells. Consequently, the device performance is affected by the compatibility between the blend components and the resulting film morphology, the energy levels and bandgaps, the concentration of the guest material and its location in the active layer. In this work, we report on a solvent-free lamination process for the fabrication of efficient and semitransparent ternary blend OSCs. The ternary blend was composed of PC70BM and the electron donors PBDTTT-C and an NIR cyanine absorbing dye (Cy7T). Using an opaque metal top electrode, a PCE of 6% was achieved for the optimized binary polymer: fullerene blend (AVT = 56%). However, the PCE dropped to ~2% when decreasing (to 30 nm) the active film thickness to increase the AVT value (75%). Therefore we resorted to the ternary blend and measured for non-transparent cells a PCE of 5.5% when using an active polymer: dye: fullerene (0.7: 0.3: 1.5 wt:wt:wt) film of 95 nm thickness (AVT = 65% when omitting the top electrode). In a second step, the optimized ternary blend was used of the fabrication of SM-OSCs. We used a plastic/metal substrate with a light transmission of over 90% as a transparent electrode that was applied via a lamination process. The interfacial layer between the active layer and the top electrode was optimized in order to improve the charge collection and the contact with the laminated top electrode. We demonstrated a PCE of 3% with AVT of 51%. The parameter space for ternary OSCs is large and it is difficult to find the best concentration ratios by trial and error. A rational approach for device optimization is the construction of a ternary blend phase diagram. We discuss our attempts to construct such a phase diagram for the PBDTTT-C: Cy7T: PC70BM system via a combination of using selective Cy7T selective solvents and atomic force microscopy. From the ternary diagram suitable morphologies for efficient light-to-current conversion can be identified. We compare experimental OSC data with these predictions.

Keywords: organic photovoltaics, ternary phase diagram, ternary organic solar cells, transparent solar cell, lamination

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Authors: Mercedes Bertotto, Marcelo Bello, Hector Goicoechea, Veronica Fusca

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The National Service of Agri-Food Health and Quality (SENASA), controls honey to detect contamination by synthetic or natural chemical substances and establishes and controls the traceability of the product. The utility of near-infrared spectroscopy for the detection of adulteration of honey with high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was investigated. First of all, a mixture of different authentic artisanal Argentinian honey was prepared to cover as much heterogeneity as possible. Then, mixtures were prepared by adding different concentrations of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) to samples of the honey pool. 237 samples were used, 108 of them were authentic honey and 129 samples corresponded to honey adulterated with HFCS between 1 and 10%. They were stored unrefrigerated from time of production until scanning and were not filtered after receipt in the laboratory. Immediately prior to spectral collection, honey was incubated at 40°C overnight to dissolve any crystalline material, manually stirred to achieve homogeneity and adjusted to a standard solids content (70° Brix) with distilled water. Adulterant solutions were also adjusted to 70° Brix. Samples were measured by NIR spectroscopy in the range of 650 to 7000 cm⁻¹. The technique of specular reflectance was used, with a lens aperture range of 150 mm. Pretreatment of the spectra was performed by Standard Normal Variate (SNV). The ant colony optimization genetic algorithm sample selection (ACOGASS) graphical interface was used, using MATLAB version 5.3, to select the variables with the greatest discriminating power. The data set was divided into a validation set and a calibration set, using the Kennard-Stone (KS) algorithm. A combined method of Potential Functions (PF) was chosen together with Partial Least Square Linear Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA). Different estimators of the predictive capacity of the model were compared, which were obtained using a decreasing number of groups, which implies more demanding validation conditions. The optimal number of latent variables was selected as the number associated with the minimum error and the smallest number of unassigned samples. Once the optimal number of latent variables was defined, we proceeded to apply the model to the training samples. With the calibrated model for the training samples, we proceeded to study the validation samples. The calibrated model that combines the potential function methods and PLSDA can be considered reliable and stable since its performance in future samples is expected to be comparable to that achieved for the training samples. By use of Potential Functions (PF) and Partial Least Square Linear Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) classification, authentic honey and honey adulterated with HFCS could be identified with a correct classification rate of 97.9%. The results showed that NIR in combination with the PT and PLS-DS methods can be a simple, fast and low-cost technique for the detection of HFCS in honey with high sensitivity and power of discrimination.

Keywords: adulteration, multivariate analysis, potential functions, regression

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Authors: Anna-Lisa Osvalder, Jonas Borell

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There are several reasons behind the use, non-use, or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the construction industry. Comfort and accurate size support proper use, while discomfort, misfit, and difficulties to understand how the PPEs should be handled inhibit correct usage. The need for several protective equipments simultaneously might also create problems. The purpose of this study was to analyse the correct usage, comfort, and fit of different types of PPEs used for construction work. Correct usage was analysed as guessability, i.e., human perceptions of how to don, adjust, use, and doff the equipment, and if used as intended. The PPEs tested individually or in combinations were a helmet, ear protectors, goggles, respiratory masks, gloves, protective cloths, and safety harnesses. First, an analytical evaluation was performed with ECW (enhanced cognitive walkthrough) and PUEA (predictive use error analysis) to search for usability problems and use errors during handling and use. Then usability tests were conducted to evaluate guessability, comfort, and fit with 10 test subjects of different heights and body constitutions. The tests included observations during donning, five different outdoor work tasks, and doffing. The think-aloud method, short interviews, and subjective estimations were performed. The analytical evaluation showed that some usability problems and use errors arise during donning and doffing, but with minor severity, mostly causing discomfort. A few use errors and usability problems arose for the safety harness, especially for novices, where some could lead to a high risk of severe incidents. The usability tests showed that discomfort arose for all test subjects when using a combination of PPEs, increasing over time. For instance, goggles, together with the face mask, caused pressure, chafing at the nose, and heat rash on the face. This combination also limited sight of vision. The helmet, in combination with the goggles and ear protectors, did not fit well and caused uncomfortable pressure at the temples. No major problems were found with the individual fit of the PPEs. The ear protectors, goggles, and face masks could be adjusted for different head sizes. The guessability for how to don and wear the combination of PPE was moderate, but it took some time to adjust them for a good fit. The guessability was poor for the safety harness; few clues in the design showed how it should be donned, adjusted, or worn on the skeletal bones. Discomfort occurred when the straps were tightened too much. All straps could not be adjusted for somebody's constitutions leading to non-optimal safety. To conclude, if several types of PPEs are used together, discomfort leading to pain is likely to occur over time, which can lead to misuse, non-use, or reduced performance. If people who are not regular users should wear a safety harness correctly, the design needs to be improved for easier interpretation, correct position of the straps, and increased possibilities for individual adjustments. The results from this study can be a base for re-design ideas for PPE, especially when they should be used in combinations.

Keywords: construction work, PPE, personal protective equipment, misuse, guessability, usability

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: María-Luisa Pinto-Salamanca, Wilson-Javier Pérez-Holguín

Abstract:

Reconstruction of contact forces is a fundamental technique for analyzing the properties of a touched object and is essential for regulating the grip force in slip control loops. This is based on the processing of the distribution, intensity, and direction of the forces during the capture of the sensors. Currently, efficient hardware alternatives have been used more frequently in different fields of application, allowing the implementation of computationally complex algorithms, as is the case with tactile signal processing. The use of hardware for smart tactile sensing systems is a research area that promises to improve the processing time and portability requirements of applications such as artificial skin and robotics, among others. The literature review shows that hardware implementations are present today in almost all stages of smart tactile detection systems except in the force reconstruction process, a stage in which they have been less applied. This work presents a hardware implementation of a model-driven reported in the literature for the contact force reconstruction of flat and rigid tactile sensor arrays from normal stress data. From the analysis of a software implementation of such a model, this implementation proposes the parallelization of tasks that facilitate the execution of matrix operations and a two-dimensional optimization function to obtain a vector force by each taxel in the array. This work seeks to take advantage of the parallel hardware characteristics of Field Programmable Gate Arrays, FPGAs, and the possibility of applying appropriate techniques for algorithms parallelization using as a guide the rules of generalization, efficiency, and scalability in the tactile decoding process and considering the low latency, low power consumption, and real-time execution as the main parameters of design. The results show a maximum estimation error of 32% in the tangential forces and 22% in the normal forces with respect to the simulation by the Finite Element Modeling (FEM) technique of Hertzian and non-Hertzian contact events, over sensor arrays of 10×10 taxels of different sizes. The hardware implementation was carried out on an MPSoC XCZU9EG-2FFVB1156 platform of Xilinx® that allows the reconstruction of force vectors following a scalable approach, from the information captured by means of tactile sensor arrays composed of up to 48 × 48 taxels that use various transduction technologies. The proposed implementation demonstrates a reduction in estimation time of x / 180 compared to software implementations. Despite the relatively high values of the estimation errors, the information provided by this implementation on the tangential and normal tractions and the triaxial reconstruction of forces allows to adequately reconstruct the tactile properties of the touched object, which are similar to those obtained in the software implementation and in the two FEM simulations taken as reference. Although errors could be reduced, the proposed implementation is useful for decoding contact forces for portable tactile sensing systems, thus helping to expand electronic skin applications in robotic and biomedical contexts.

Keywords: contact forces reconstruction, forces estimation, tactile sensor array, hardware implementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Md Tanvir Rahman, Mahbube Subhani, Mahmud Ashraf, Paul Kremer

Abstract:

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) is made from layers of timber boards orthogonally oriented in the thickness direction, and due to this, CLT can withstand bi-axial bending in contrast with most other engineered wood products such as laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and glued laminated timber (GLT). Wood is cylindrically anisotropic in nature and is characterized by significantly lower elastic modulus and shear modulus in the planes perpendicular to the fibre direction, and is therefore classified as orthotropic material and is thus characterized by 9 elastic constants which are three elastic modulus in longitudinal direction, tangential direction and radial direction, three shear modulus in longitudinal tangential plane, longitudinal radial plane and radial tangential plane and three Poisson’s ratio. For simplification, timber materials are generally assumed to be transversely isotropic, reducing the number of elastic properties characterizing it to 5, where the longitudinal plane and radial planes are assumed to be planes of symmetry. The validity of this assumption was investigated through numerical modelling of CLT with both orthotropic mechanical properties and transversely isotropic material properties for three softwood species, which are Norway spruce, Douglas fir, Radiata pine, and three hardwood species, namely Victorian ash, Beech wood, and Aspen subjected to uniformly distributed loading under simply supported boundary condition. It was concluded that assuming the timber to be transversely isotropic results in a negligible error in the order of 1 percent. It was also observed that along with longitudinal elastic modulus, ratio of longitudinal shear modulus (GL) and rolling shear modulus (GR) has a significant effect on a deflection for CLT panels of lower span to depth ratio. For softwoods such as Norway spruce and Radiata pine, the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus, GL to rolling shear modulus GR is reported to be in the order of 12 to 15 times in literature. This results in shear flexibility in transverse layers leading to increased deflection under out-of-plane loading. The rolling shear modulus of hardwoods has been found to be significantly higher than those of softwoods, where the ratio between longitudinal shear modulus to rolling shear modulus as low as 4. This has resulted in a significant rise in research into the manufacturing of CLT from entirely from hardwood, as well as from a combination of softwood and hardwoods. The commonly used beam theory to analyze the performance of CLT panels under out-of-plane loads are the Shear analogy method, Gamma method, and k-method. The shear analogy method has been found to be the most effective method where shear deformation is significant. The effect of the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer on the deflection of CLT under uniformly distributed load with respect to its length to depth ratio was investigated using shear analogy method. It was observed that shear deflection is reduced significantly as the ratio of the shear modulus of the longitudinal layer and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer decreases. This indicates that there is significant room for improvement of the bending performance of CLT through developing hybrid CLT from a mix of softwood and hardwood.

Keywords: rolling shear modulus, shear deflection, ratio of shear modulus and rolling shear modulus, timber

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Praveena Sinha

Abstract:

Context: Diabetes is a global public health burden, particularly affecting postmenopausal women. Insulin resistance (IR) is prevalent in this population, and it is associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Yoga therapy is gaining attention as a complementary intervention for diabetes due to its potential to address stress psychophysiology. This study focuses on the efficacy of a 12-week yoga practice in attenuating insulin resistance in early postmenopausal women. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of a 3-month long yoga practice on insulin resistance in early postmenopausal women. Methodology: The study conducted a prospective longitudinal design with 67 women within five years of menopause. Participants were divided into two groups based on their willingness to join yoga. The Yoga group (n = 37) received routine gynecological management along with an integrated yoga module, while the Non-Yoga group (n = 30) received only routine management. Insulin resistance was measured using the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) method before and after the intervention. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad Prism Version 5 software, with statistical significance set at P < 0.05. Findings: The results indicate a significant decrease in serum fasting insulin levels and HOMA-IR measurements in the Yoga group, although the decrease did not reach statistical significance. In contrast, the Non-Yoga group showed a significant rise in serum fasting insulin levels and HOMA-IR measurements after 3 months, suggesting a detrimental effect on insulin resistance in these postmenopausal women. Theoretical Importance: This study provides evidence that a 12-week yoga practice can attenuate the increase in insulin resistance in early postmenopausal women. It highlights the potential of yoga as a preventive measure against the early onset of insulin resistance and the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Regular yoga practice can be a valuable tool in addressing hormonal imbalances associated with early postmenopause, leading to a decrease in morbidity and mortality related to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus in this population. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data collection involved measuring serum fasting insulin levels and calculating HOMA-IR. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad Prism Version 5 software, and mean values with standard error of the mean were reported. The significance level was set at P < 0.05. Question Addressed: The study aimed to address whether a 3-month long yoga practice could attenuate insulin resistance in early postmenopausal women. Conclusion: The research findings support the efficacy of a 12-week yoga practice in attenuating insulin resistance in early postmenopausal women. Regular yoga practice has the potential to prevent the early onset of insulin resistance and the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in this population. By addressing the hormonal imbalances associated with early post menopause, yoga could significantly decrease morbidity and mortality related to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus in these subjects.

Keywords: post menopause, insulin resistance, HOMA-IR, yoga, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

Abstract:

Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: electrical disaggregation, DTW, general appliance modeling, event detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Manushi Srivastava

Abstract:

Introduction: Doctor’s role, and relation with respect to patient care is at the core of medical ethics. The rapid pace of medical advances along with increasing consumer awareness about their rights and hike in cost of effective health care demand a robust, transparent and patient-friendly medical care system. However, doctors’ role performance is still in the frame of activity-passivity model of Doctor-Patient Relationship (DPR) where doctors act as parent and use to instruct their patients, without their consensus that is not going to help in the 21st century. Thus the current situation is a new challenge for traditional doctor-patient relationship after the introduction of Consumer Protection Act (CPA) in medical profession and the same is evidenced by increasing cases of medical litigation. To strengthen this system of medical services, the doctor plays a vital role, and the same should be reviewed in the present context. Objective: To understand the opinion of consultants regarding medical negligence and effect of Consumer Protection Act in terms of current practices of patient care. Method: This is a cross-sectional study in which both quantitative and qualitative methods are applied. Total 69 consultants were selected from multi-specialty hospitals of densely populated Varanasi city catering a population of about 1.8 million. Two-stage sampling was used for selection of respondents. At the first stage, selection of major wards (Medicine, Surgery, Ophthalmology, Gynaecology, Orthopaedics, and Paediatrics) was carried out, which are more susceptible to medical negligence. At the second stage, selection of consultants from the respective wards was carried out. In-depth Interviews were conducted with the help of semi-structured schedule. Two case studies of medical negligence were also carried out as part of the qualitative study. Analysis: Data were analyzed with the help of SPSS software (21.0 trial version). Semi-structured research tool was used to know consultant’s opinion about the pattern of medical negligence cases, litigations and claims made by patient community and inclusion of government medical services in CPA. Statistical analysis was done to describe data, and non-parametric test was used to observe the association between the variables. Analysis of Verbatim was used in case-study. Findings and Conclusion: Majority (92.8%) of consultants felt changes in the behaviour of community (patient) after implementation of CPA, as it had increased awareness about their rights. Less than half of the consultants opined that Medical Negligence is an Unintentional act of doctors and generally occurs due to communication gap and behavioural problem between doctor and patients. Experienced consultants ( > 10 years) pointed out that unethical practice by doctors and mal-intention of patient to harass doctors were additional reasons of Medical Negligence. In-depth interview revealed that now patients’ community expects more transparency and hence they demand cafeteria approach in diagnosis and management of cases. Thus as study results, we propose ‘Agreement Model’ of DPR to re-ensure ethical practice in medical profession.

Keywords: doctors, communication, consumer protection act (CPA), medical error

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Andrew Gray, Zhibing Zhang

Abstract:

The ability for consumer products to deliver a sustained perfume response can be a key driver for a variety of applications. Many compounds in perfume oils are highly volatile, meaning they readily evaporate once the product is applied, and the longevity of the scent is poor. Perfume capsules have been introduced as a means of abating this evaporation once the product has been delivered. The impermeable capsules are aimed to be stable within the formulation, and remain intact during delivery to the desired substrate, only rupturing to release the core perfume oil through application of mechanical force applied by the consumer. This opens up the possibility of obtaining an olfactive response hours, weeks or even months after delivery, depending on the nature of the desired application. Tailoring the properties of the polymeric capsules to better address the needs of the application is not a trivial challenge and currently design of capsules is largely done by trial and error. The aim of this work is to have more predictive methods for capsule design depending on the consumer application. This means refining formulations such that they rupture at the right time for the specific consumer application, not too early, not too late. Finding the right balance between these extremes is essential if a benefit is sought with respect to neat addition of perfume to formulations. It is important to understand the forces that influence capsule rupture, first, by quantifying the magnitude of these different forces, and then by assessing bulk rupture in real-world applications to understand how capsules actually respond. Samples were provided by an industrial partner and the mechanical properties of individual capsules within the samples were characterized via a micromanipulation technique, developed by Professor Zhang at the University of Birmingham. The capsules were synthesized such as to change one particular physicochemical property at a time, such as core: wall material ratio, and the average size of capsules. Analysis of shell thickness via Transmission Electron Microscopy, size distribution via the use of a Mastersizer, as well as a variety of other techniques confirmed that only one particular physicochemical property was altered for each sample. The mechanical analysis was subsequently undertaken, showing the effect that changing certain capsule properties had on the response under compression. It was, however, important to link this fundamental mechanical response to capsule performance in real-world applications. As such, the capsule samples were introduced to a formulation and exposed to full scale stresses. GC-MS headspace analysis of the perfume oil released from broken capsules enabled quantification of what the relative strengths of capsules truly means for product performance. Correlations have been found between the mechanical strength of capsule samples and performance in terms of perfume release in consumer applications. Having a better understanding of the key parameters that drive performance benefits the design of future formulations by offering better guidelines on the parameters that can be adjusted without worrying about the performance effects, and singles out those parameters that are essential in finding the sweet spot for capsule performance.

Keywords: consumer products, mechanical and physicochemical properties, perfume capsules, rupture behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Ting Lu, Ya-Ru Diao, Fei Fan, Ye Xue, Lei Shi, Xian-e Tang, Meng-jun Zhan, Zhen-hua Deng

Abstract:

Accurate adult age estimation (AAE) is a significant and challenging task in forensic and archeology fields. Attempts have been made to explore optimal adult age metrics, and the rib is considered a potential age marker. The traditional way is to extract age-related features designed by experts from macroscopic or radiological images followed by classification or regression analysis. Those results still have not met the high-level requirements for practice, and the limitation of using feature design and manual extraction methods is loss of information since the features are likely not designed explicitly for extracting information relevant to age. Deep learning (DL) has recently garnered much interest in imaging learning and computer vision. It enables learning features that are important without a prior bias or hypothesis and could be supportive of AAE. This study aimed to develop DL models for AAE based on CT images and compare their performance to the manual visual scoring method. Chest CT data were reconstructed using volume rendering (VR). Retrospective data of 2500 patients aged 20.00-69.99 years were obtained between December 2019 and September 2021. Five-fold cross-validation was performed, and datasets were randomly split into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for each fold. Before feeding the inputs into networks, all images were augmented with random rotation and vertical flip, normalized, and resized to 224×224 pixels. ResNeXt was chosen as the DL baseline due to its advantages of higher efficiency and accuracy in image classification. Mean absolute error (MAE) was the primary parameter. Independent data from 100 patients acquired between March and April 2022 were used as a test set. The manual method completely followed the prior study, which reported the lowest MAEs (5.31 in males and 6.72 in females) among similar studies. CT data and VR images were used. The radiation density of the first costal cartilage was recorded using CT data on the workstation. The osseous and calcified projections of the 1 to 7 costal cartilages were scored based on VR images using an eight-stage staging technique. According to the results of the prior study, the optimal models were the decision tree regression model in males and the stepwise multiple linear regression equation in females. Predicted ages of the test set were calculated separately using different models by sex. A total of 2600 patients (training and validation sets, mean age=45.19 years±14.20 [SD]; test set, mean age=46.57±9.66) were evaluated in this study. Of ResNeXt model training, MAEs were obtained with 3.95 in males and 3.65 in females. Based on the test set, DL achieved MAEs of 4.05 in males and 4.54 in females, which were far better than the MAEs of 8.90 and 6.42 respectively, for the manual method. Those results showed that the DL of the ResNeXt model outperformed the manual method in AAE based on CT reconstruction of the costal cartilage and the developed system may be a supportive tool for AAE.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, age determination by the skeleton, costal cartilage, CT, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Ali Kazemi

Abstract:

The digital evolution of financial services, while offering unprecedented convenience and accessibility, has also escalated the vulnerabilities to fraudulent activities. In this study, we introduce a distinct approach to real-time anomaly detection in financial transactions, aiming to fortify the defenses of banking and financial institutions against such threats. Utilizing unsupervised machine learning algorithms, specifically autoencoders and isolation forests, our research focuses on identifying irregular patterns indicative of fraud within transactional data, thus enabling immediate action to prevent financial loss. The data we used in this study included the monetary value of each transaction. This is a crucial feature as fraudulent transactions may have distributions of different amounts than legitimate ones, such as timestamps indicating when transactions occurred. Analyzing transactions' temporal patterns can reveal anomalies (e.g., unusual activity in the middle of the night). Also, the sector or category of the merchant where the transaction occurred, such as retail, groceries, online services, etc. Specific categories may be more prone to fraud. Moreover, the type of payment used (e.g., credit, debit, online payment systems). Different payment methods have varying risk levels associated with fraud. This dataset, anonymized to ensure privacy, reflects a wide array of transactions typical of a global banking institution, ranging from small-scale retail purchases to large wire transfers, embodying the diverse nature of potentially fraudulent activities. By engineering features that capture the essence of transactions, including normalized amounts and encoded categorical variables, we tailor our data to enhance model sensitivity to anomalies. The autoencoder model leverages its reconstruction error mechanism to flag transactions that deviate significantly from the learned normal pattern, while the isolation forest identifies anomalies based on their susceptibility to isolation from the dataset's majority. Our experimental results, validated through techniques such as k-fold cross-validation, are evaluated using precision, recall, and the F1 score alongside the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Our models achieved an F1 score of 0.85 and a ROC AUC of 0.93, indicating high accuracy in detecting fraudulent transactions without excessive false positives. This study contributes to the academic discourse on financial fraud detection and provides a practical framework for banking institutions seeking to implement real-time anomaly detection systems. By demonstrating the effectiveness of unsupervised learning techniques in a real-world context, our research offers a pathway to significantly reduce the incidence of financial fraud, thereby enhancing the security and trustworthiness of digital financial services.

Keywords: anomaly detection, financial fraud, machine learning, autoencoders, isolation forest, transactional data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

Abstract:

Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Raja Umer Sajjad, Chang Hee Lee

Abstract:

Stormwater runoff is the leading contributor to pollution of receiving waters. In response, an efficient stormwater monitoring program is required to quantify and eventually reduce stormwater pollution. The overall goals of stormwater monitoring programs primarily include the identification of high-risk dischargers and the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). The challenge in developing better monitoring program is to reduce the variability in flux estimates due to sampling errors; however, the success of monitoring program mainly depends on the accuracy of the estimates. Apart from sampling errors, manpower and budgetary constraints also influence the quality of the estimates. This study attempted to develop optimum stormwater monitoring design considering both cost and the quality of the estimated pollutants flux. Three years stormwater monitoring data (2012 – 2014) from a mix land use located within Geumhak watershed South Korea was evaluated. The regional climate is humid and precipitation is usually well distributed through the year. The investigation of a large number of water quality parameters is time-consuming and resource intensive. In order to identify a suite of easy-to-measure parameters to act as a surrogate, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied. Means, standard deviations, coefficient of variation (CV) and other simple statistics were performed using multivariate statistical analysis software SPSS 22.0. The implication of sampling time on monitoring results, number of samples required during the storm event and impact of seasonal first flush were also identified. Based on the observations derived from the PCA biplot and the correlation matrix, total suspended solids (TSS) was identified as a potential surrogate for turbidity, total phosphorus and for heavy metals like lead, chromium, and copper whereas, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) was identified as surrogate for organic matter. The CV among different monitored water quality parameters were found higher (ranged from 3.8 to 15.5). It suggests that use of grab sampling design to estimate the mass emission rates in the study area can lead to errors due to large variability. TSS discharge load calculation error was found only 2 % with two different sample size approaches; i.e. 17 samples per storm event and equally distributed 6 samples per storm event. Both seasonal first flush and event first flush phenomena for most water quality parameters were observed in the study area. Samples taken at the initial stage of storm event generally overestimate the mass emissions; however, it was found that collecting a grab sample after initial hour of storm event more closely approximates the mean concentration of the event. It was concluded that site and regional climate specific interventions can be made to optimize the stormwater monitoring program in order to make it more effective and economical.

Keywords: first flush, pollutant load, stormwater monitoring, surrogate parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: A.H.Y. Lai, C. Teyra

Abstract:

In Taiwan, there are 16 official indigenous groups, accounting for 2.3% of the total population. Like other indigenous populations worldwide, indigenous peoples in Taiwan have poorer mental health because of their history of oppression and colonisation. Amid the negative narratives, the ethnic identity of cultural minorities is their unique psychological and cultural asset. Moreover, positive socialisation is found to be related to strong ethnic identity. Based on Phinney’s theory on ethnic identity development and social support theory, this study adopted a strength-based approach conceptualising ethnic identity as the central organising principle that linked perceived social support and mental health among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Aims. Overall aim is to examine the effect of ethnic identity and social support on mental health. Specific aims were to examine : (1) the association between ethnic identity and mental health; (2) the association between perceived social support and mental health ; (3) the indirect effect of ethnic identity linking perceived social support and mental health. Methods. Participants were indigenous adults in Taiwan (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Respondent-driven sampling was used. Standardised measurements were: Ethnic Identity Scale(6-item); Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender and economic satisfaction. A four-stage structural equation modelling (SEM) with robust maximin likelihood estimation was employed using Mplus8.0. Step 1: A measurement model was built and tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Step 2: Factor covariates were re-specified as direct effects in the SEM. Covariates were added. The direct effects of (1) ethnic identity and social support on depression and anxiety and (2) social support on ethnic identity were tested. The indirect effect of ethnic identity was examined with the bootstrapping technique. Results. The CFA model showed satisfactory fit statistics: x^2(df)=869.69(608), p<.05; Comparative ft index (CFI)/ Tucker-Lewis fit index (TLI)=0.95/0.94; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual (SRMR)=0.05. Ethnic identity is represented by two latent factors: ethnic identity-commitment and ethnic identity-exploration. Depression, anxiety and social support are single-factor latent variables. For the SEM, model fit statistics were: x^2(df)=779.26(527), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.94/0.93; RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.30) and social support (b=-0.33) had direct negative effects on depression, but ethnic identity-exploration did not. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.43) and social support (b=-0.31) had direct negative effects on anxiety, while identity-exploration (b=0.24) demonstrated a positive effect. Social support had direct positive effects on ethnic identity-exploration (b=0.26) and ethnic identity-commitment (b=0.31). Mediation analysis demonstrated the indirect effect of ethnic identity-commitment linking social support and depression (b=0.22). Implications: Results underscore the role of social support in preventing depression via ethnic identity commitment among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Adopting the strength-based approach, mental health practitioners can mobilise indigenous peoples’ commitment to their group to promote their well-being.

Keywords: ethnic identity, indigenous population, mental health, perceived social support

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Ntandazo Dlatu, Benjamin Longo-Mbenza, Andre Renzaho, Ruffin Appalata, Yolande Yvonne Valeria Matoumona Mavoungou, Mbenza Ben Longo, Kenneth Ekoru, Blaise Makoso, Gedeon Longo Longo

Abstract:

Background: The gap between complexities related to the integration of Tuberculosis /HIV control and evidence-based knowledge motivated the initiation of the study. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore correlations between national TB management guidelines, multiple deprivation indexes, quantiles, components and levels of Tuberculosis control programme using mathematical modeling in rural O.R. Tambo District Health Facilities, South Africa. Methods: The study design used mixed secondary data analysis and cross-sectional analysis between 2009 and 2013 across O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa using univariate/ bivariate analysis, linear multiple regression models, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Health inequalities indicators and component of an impediment to the tuberculosis control programme were evaluated. Results: In total, 62 400 records for TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009-2013. There was a significant but negative between Financial Year Expenditure (r= -0.894; P= 0.041) Seropositive HIV status(r= -0.979; P= 0.004), Population Density (r = -0.881; P= 0.048) and the number of TB defaulter in all TB cases. It was shown unsuccessful control of TB management program through correlations between numbers of new PTB smear positive, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB failure all TB, Pulmonary Tuberculosis case finding index and deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. It was shown successful TB program control through significant and negative associations between declining numbers of death in co-infection of HIV and TB, TB deaths all TB and SMIAD gradient/ deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. The multivariate linear model was summarized by unadjusted r of 96%, adjusted R2 of 95 %, Standard Error of estimate of 0.110, R2 changed of 0.959 and significance for variance change for P=0.004 to explain the prediction of TB defaulter in all TB with equation y= 8.558-0.979 x number of HIV seropositive. After adjusting for confounding factors (PTB case finding the index, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB death in all TB, TB defaulter all TB, and TB failure in all TB). The HIV and TB death, as well as new PTB smear positive, were identified as the most important, significant, and independent indicator to discriminate most deprived deprivation index far from other deprivation quintiles 2-5 using discriminant analysis. Conclusion: Elimination of poverty such as overcrowding, lack of sanitation and environment of highest burden of HIV might end the TB threat in O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Furthermore, ongoing adequate budget comprehensive, holistic and collaborative initiative towards Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs) is necessary for complete elimination of TB in poor O.R Tambo District.

Keywords: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, success, failure, control program, health inequalities, South Africa

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Authors: Riadh Zorgati, Thomas Triboulet

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In quite diverse application areas such as astronomy, medical imaging, geophysics or nondestructive evaluation, many problems related to calibration, fitting or estimation of a large number of input parameters of a model from a small amount of output noisy data, can be cast as inverse problems. Due to noisy data corruption, insufficient data and model errors, most inverse problems are ill-posed in a Hadamard sense, i.e. existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution are not guaranteed. A wide class of inverse problems in physics relates to the Fredholm equation of the first kind. The ill-posedness of such inverse problem results, after discretization, in a very ill-conditioned linear system of equations, the condition number of the associated matrix can typically range from 109 to 1018. This condition number plays the role of an amplifier of uncertainties on data during inversion and then, renders the inverse problem difficult to handle numerically. Similar problems appear in other areas such as numerical optimization when using interior points algorithms for solving linear programs leads to face ill-conditioned systems of linear equations. Devising efficient solution approaches for such system of equations is therefore of great practical interest. Efficient iterative algorithms are proposed for solving a system of linear equations. The approach is based on a preconditioning of the initial matrix of the system with an approximation of a generalized inverse leading to a stochastic preconditioned matrix. This approach, valid for non-negative matrices, is first extended to hermitian, semi-definite positive matrices and then generalized to any complex rectangular matrices. The main results obtained are as follows: 1) We are able to build a generalized inverse of any complex rectangular matrix which satisfies the convergence condition requested in iterative algorithms for solving a system of linear equations. This completes the (short) list of generalized inverse having this property, after Kaczmarz and Cimmino matrices. Theoretical results on both the characterization of the type of generalized inverse obtained and the convergence are derived. 2) Thanks to its properties, this matrix can be efficiently used in different solving schemes as Richardson-Tanabe or preconditioned conjugate gradients. 3) By using Lp norms, we propose generalized Kaczmarz’s type matrices. We also show how Cimmino's matrix can be considered as a particular case consisting in choosing the Euclidian norm in an asymmetrical structure. 4) Regarding numerical results obtained on some pathological well-known test-cases (Hilbert, Nakasaka, …), some of the proposed algorithms are empirically shown to be more efficient on ill-conditioned problems and more robust to error propagation than the known classical techniques we have tested (Gauss, Moore-Penrose inverse, minimum residue, conjugate gradients, Kaczmarz, Cimmino). We end on a very early prospective application of our approach based on stochastic matrices aiming at computing some parameters (such as the extreme values, the mean, the variance, …) of the solution of a linear system prior to its resolution. Such an approach, if it were to be efficient, would be a source of information on the solution of a system of linear equations.

Keywords: conditioning, generalized inverse, linear system, norms, stochastic matrix

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Authors: Quan Wen, Tianxiao Chang, Shaolu Shi, Yushi Wang, Guangyu Wang

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As a kind of working environment of the fuze, the spin rate decaying law of projectile in exterior trajectory is of great value in the design of the rotation count fixed distance fuze. In addition, it is significant in the field of devices for simulation tests of fuze exterior ballistic environment, flight stability, and dispersion accuracy of gun projectile and opening and scattering design of submunition and illuminating cartridges. Besides, the self-destroying mechanism of the fuze in small-caliber projectile often works by utilizing the attenuation of centrifugal force. In the theory of projectile aerodynamics and fuze design, there are many formulas describing the change law of projectile angular velocity in external ballistic such as Roggla formula, exponential function formula, and power function formula. However, these formulas are mostly semi-empirical due to the poor test conditions and insufficient test data at that time. These formulas are difficult to meet the design requirements of modern fuze because they are not accurate enough and have a narrow range of applications now. In order to provide more accurate ballistic environment parameters for the design of a hemispherical head projectile fuze, the projectile’s spin rate decaying law in exterior trajectory under the effect of air resistance was studied. In the analysis, the projectile shape was simplified as hemisphere head, cylindrical part, rotating band part, and anti-truncated conical tail. The main assumptions are as follows: a) The shape and mass are symmetrical about the longitudinal axis, b) There is a smooth transition between the ball hea, c) The air flow on the outer surface is set as a flat plate flow with the same area as the expanded outer surface of the projectile, and the boundary layer is turbulent, d) The polar damping moment attributed to the wrench hole and rifling mark on the projectile is not considered, e) The groove of the rifle on the rotating band is uniform, smooth and regular. The impacts of the four parts on aerodynamic moment of the projectile rotation were obtained by aerodynamic theory. The surface friction stress of the projectile, the polar damping moment formed by the head of the projectile, the surface friction moment formed by the cylindrical part, the rotating band, and the anti-truncated conical tail were obtained by mathematical derivation. After that, the mathematical model of angular spin rate attenuation was established. In the whole trajectory with the maximum range angle (38°), the absolute error of the polar damping torque coefficient obtained by simulation and the coefficient calculated by the mathematical model established in this paper is not more than 7%. Therefore, the credibility of the mathematical model was verified. The mathematical model can be described as a first-order nonlinear differential equation, which has no analytical solution. The solution can be only gained as a numerical solution by connecting the model with projectile mass motion equations in exterior ballistics.

Keywords: ammunition engineering, fuze technology, spin rate, numerical simulation

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Authors: Kenneth A. Rostowsky, Alexander S. Maher, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Andrei Irimia

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The clinical significance of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) due to mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) remains unclear. Here we use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and connectomic analysis to investigate the statistical association between mTBI-related CMBs, post-TBI changes to the human connectome and neurological/cognitive deficits. This study was undertaken in agreement with US federal law (45 CFR 46) and was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the University of Southern California (USC). Two groups, one consisting of 26 (13 females) mTBI victims and another comprising 26 (13 females) healthy control (HC) volunteers were recruited through IRB-approved procedures. The acute Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score was available for each mTBI victim (mean µ = 13.2; standard deviation σ = 0.4). Each HC volunteer was assigned a GCS of 15 to indicate the absence of head trauma at the time of enrollment in our study. Volunteers in the HC and mTBI groups were matched according to their sex and age (HC: µ = 67.2 years, σ = 5.62 years; mTBI: µ = 66.8 years, σ = 5.93 years). MRI [including T1- and T2-weighted volumes, gradient recalled echo (GRE)/susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI)] and gradient echo (GE) DWI volumes were acquired using the same MRI scanner type (Trio TIM, Siemens Corp.). Skull-stripping and eddy current correction were implemented. DWI volumes were processed in TrackVis (http://trackvis.org) and 3D Slicer (http://www.slicer.org). Tensors were fit to DWI data to perform DTI, and tractography streamlines were then reconstructed using deterministic tractography. A voxel classifier was used to identify image features as CMB candidates using Microbleed Anatomic Rating Scale (MARS) guidelines. For each peri-lesional DTI streamline bundle, the null hypothesis was formulated as the statement that there was no neurological or cognitive deficit associated with between-scan differences in the mean FA of DTI streamlines within each bundle. The statistical significance of each hypothesis test was calculated at the α = 0.05 level, subject to the family-wise error rate (FWER) correction for multiple comparisons. Results: In HC volunteers, the along-track analysis failed to identify statistically significant differences in the mean FA of DTI streamline bundles. In the mTBI group, significant differences in the mean FA of peri-lesional streamline bundles were found in 21 out of 26 volunteers. In those volunteers where significant differences had been found, these differences were associated with an average of ~47% of all identified CMBs (σ = 21%). In 12 out of the 21 volunteers exhibiting significant FA changes, cognitive functions (memory acquisition and retrieval, top-down control of attention, planning, judgment, cognitive aspects of decision-making) were found to have deteriorated over the six months following injury (r = -0.32, p < 0.001). Our preliminary results suggest that acute post-TBI CMBs may be associated with cognitive decline in some mTBI patients. Future research should attempt to identify mTBI patients at high risk for cognitive sequelae.

Keywords: traumatic brain injury, magnetic resonance imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, connectomics

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Hosseini, Seyed Majid Hashemzadeh

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Solar energy is one of the remarkable renewable energy sources that have particular characteristics such as unlimited, no environmental pollution, and free access. Generally, solar energy can be used in thermal and photovoltaic (PV) types. The cost of installation of the PV system is very high. Additionally, due to dependence on environmental situations such as solar radiation and ambient temperature, electrical power generation of this system is unpredictable and without power electronics devices, there is no guarantee to maximum power delivery at the output of this system. Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) should be used to achieve the maximum power of a PV string. MPPT is one of the essential parts of the PV system which without this section, it would be impossible to reach the maximum amount of the PV string power and high losses are caused in the PV system. One of the noticeable challenges in the problem of MPPT is the partial shading conditions (PSC). In PSC, the output photocurrent of the PV module under the shadow is less than the PV string current. The difference between the mentioned currents passes from the module's internal parallel resistance and creates a large negative voltage across shaded modules. This significant negative voltage damages the PV module under the shadow. This condition is called hot-spot phenomenon. An anti-paralleled diode is inserted across the PV module to prevent the happening of this phenomenon. This diode is known as the bypass diode. Due to the performance of the bypass diode under PSC, the P-V curve of the PV string has several peaks. One of the P-V curve peaks that makes the maximum available power is the global peak. Model-based Global MPPT (GMPPT) methods can estimate the optimal point with higher speed than other GMPPT approaches. Centralized, modular, and interleaved DC-DC converter topologies are the significant structures that can be used for GMPPT at a PV string. there are some problems in the centralized structure such as current mismatch losses at PV sting, loss of power of the shaded modules because of bypassing by bypass diodes under PSC, needing to series connection of many PV modules to reach the desired voltage level. In the modular structure, each PV module is connected to a DC-DC converter. In this structure, by increasing the amount of demanded power from the PV string, the number of DC-DC converters that are used at the PV system will increase. As a result, the cost of the modular structure is very high. We can implement the model-based GMPPT through the multi-input interleaved boost DC-DC converter to increase the power extraction from the PV string and reduce hot-spot and current mismatch error in a PV string under different environmental condition and variable load circumstances. The interleaved boost DC-DC converter has many privileges than other mentioned structures, such as high reliability and efficiency, better regulation of DC voltage at DC link, overcome the notable errors such as module's current mismatch and hot spot phenomenon, and power switches voltage stress reduction.

Keywords: solar energy, photovoltaic systems, interleaved boost converter, maximum power point tracking, model-based method, partial shading conditions

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Authors: Yuna Lee

Abstract:

In the current policy process, there has been a growing interest in more open approaches that incorporate creativity and innovation based on the forecasting groups composed by the public and experts together into scientific data-driven foresight methods to implement more effective policymaking. Especially, citizen participation as collective intelligence in policymaking with design and deep scale of innovation at the global level has been developed and human-centred design thinking is considered as one of the most promising methods for strategic foresight. Yet, there is a lack of a common theoretical foundation for a comprehensive approach for the current situation of and post-COVID-19 era, and substantial changes in policymaking practice are insignificant and ongoing with trial and error. This project hypothesized that rigorously developed policy systems and tools that support strategic foresight by considering the public understanding could maximize ways to create new possibilities for a preferable future, however, it must involve a better understating of Behavioural Insights, including individual and cultural values, profit motives and needs, and psychological motivations, for implementing holistic and multilateral foresight and creating more positive possibilities. To what extent is the policymaking system theoretically possible that incorporates the holistic and comprehensive foresight and policy process implementation, assuming that theory and practice, in reality, are different and not connected? What components and environmental conditions should be included in the strategic foresight system to enhance the capacity of decision from policymakers to predict alternative futures, or detect uncertainties of the future more accurately? And, compared to the required environmental condition, what are the environmental vulnerabilities of the current policymaking system? In this light, this research contemplates the question of how effectively policymaking practices have been implemented through the synthesis of scientific, technology-oriented innovation with the strategic design for tackling complex societal challenges and devising more significant insights to make society greener and more liveable. Here, this study conceptualizes the notions of a new collaborative way of strategic foresight that aims to maximize mutual benefits between policy actors and citizens through the cooperation stemming from evolutionary game theory. This study applies mixed methodology, including interviews of policy experts, with the case in which digital transformation and strategic design provided future-oriented solutions or directions to cities’ sustainable development goals and society-wide urgent challenges such as COVID-19. As a result, artistic and sensual interpreting capabilities through strategic design promote a concrete form of ideas toward a stable connection from the present to the future and enhance the understanding and active cooperation among decision-makers, stakeholders, and citizens. Ultimately, an improved theoretical foundation proposed in this study is expected to help strategically respond to the highly interconnected future changes of the post-COVID-19 world.

Keywords: policymaking, strategic design, sustainable innovation, evolution of cooperation

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