Search results for: organized retail markets

Authors: Drew Fockler

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This research examines how to improve an employee’s experience when transferring between departments within an organization. This research includes a historical review of a Canadian retail organization. Based on this historical review, gaps are identified between current and future visions to show where problems with existing training and development practices need to be resolved to reduce front-line employee turnover within an organization. The strategies within this paper support leaders through the LEAD: Listen, Explore, Act and Develop, Change Management Model. The LEAD Change Management Model supports the change process. This research proposes three possible solutions to improve an employee who is transferring between departments. The best solution to resolve the problem of improving an employee moving between departments experience is creating a Training Manager position within the retail store. A Training Manager position could support both employees and leadership with training and development of staff who are moving between departments. Within this research, an implementation plan using the TransX Model was created. The TransX Model is a hybrid of Leader-Member Exchange Theory and Transformational Leadership Theory to facilitate this organizational change within an organization by creating a common vision. Finally, this research provides the next steps as well as future considerations to enhance the training manager role within an organization.

Keywords: employee transfers, employee engagement, human resources, employee induction, TransX model, lead change management model

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Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

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Reverse logistics and green supply chain form an interconnected and interwoven network of parameters that contribute to enhancement and incremental exchange in the triple bottom line in the consistently changing and fragmenting markets of the globalizing markets of today. Reverse logistics not only contributes to completing the supply chain in a comprehensive and synchronized manner but also contributes to a significant degree in optimizing green supply chains through procedures such as recycling, refurbishing etc. contributing to waste reduction. Carbon trading, owing to its limitations in the global context and being in a nascent stage seeks plethora of research to determine its full application in synergy with reverse logistics and green supply chain.

Keywords: reverse logistics, carbon trading, carbon emissions, green supply chain

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Authors: Christian Bucio Pacheco, Miriam Magnolia Sosa Castro, María Alejandra Cabello Rosales

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This paper aims to analyze the contagion effect among the stock markets of the BRIC+M block (Brazil, Russia, India, China plus Mexico). The contagion effect is proved through increasing on dependence parameters during crisis periods. The dependence parameters are estimated through copula approach in a period of time from July 1997 to December 2015. During this period there are instability and calm episodes, allowing to analyze changes in the relations of dependence. Empirical results show strong evidence of time-varying dependence among the BRIC+M markets and an increasing dependence relation during global financial crisis period.

Keywords: BRIC+M Block, Contagion effect, Copula, dependence

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Authors: Jobo Dubihlela, Kofi Boamah

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The inimitable role of the internal auditing, challenges and the predicament of state-owned enterprises in emerging markets are acknowledged. Study sought to address the inter-related questions, about how does IAF complement the performance and sustainability of SOEs? How can effective IA control systems be implemented to improve the performance results and culture of SOEs in Namibia? The weaknesses inherent in the SOE sector, unfortunately, impacts on the IAF ability to effectively support the SOEs. Despite these challenges, the study has unearthed IAF potential capabilities to contribute to SOE survival in Namibia by complementing the governance practices of the sector. Using a quantitative research approach, the dataset was collected and analysed from SOEs to confirm the role of the internal auditing function (IAF) as an indispensable concomitant of SOE performance. The study adopted a data approach supported by the literary evidence, which enabled generalisation and connectedness of the issues being addressed. The outcome of the data analysis contributed to achieving the results, which are discussed and eventually support the conclusions reached. Results show that the intractable task of internal auditing depends on the leadership of the board of directors of the SOEs. Study also revealed critical priorities needed to influence policymakers and oversight bodies to overcome the iniquities influencing SOE operations, understand and embrace IAF to salvage a sector that has a lot to offer and yet is severely mismanaged. Results support literature on IA’s contribution to SOE development from a developing country’s point of view and is the first of its kind in Namibia. Findings suggest ways to possibly enhance knowledge development of future researchers and ‘wet their appetite’ for further research in emerging markets and on a global scale.

Keywords: internal auditing activity, state-owned enterprises, emerging markets, auditing function

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Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

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Authors: Renata Mekovec, Dijana Peras, Ruben Picek

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The advent of the Internet, mobile devices and social media is revolutionizing the experience of retail customers by linking multiple sources through various channels. Omnichannel retailing is a retailing that combines multiple channels to allow customers to seamlessly leverage all the distribution information online and offline while shopping. Therefore, today data are an asset more critical than ever for all organizations. Nonetheless, because of its heterogeneity through platforms, developers are currently facing difficulties in dealing with personal data. Considering the possibilities of omnichannel communication, this paper presents channel categorization that could enhance the customer experience of omnichannel center called hyper center. The purpose of this paper is fundamentally to describe the connection between the omnichannel hyper center and the customer, with particular attention to privacy protection. The first phase was finding the most appropriate channels of communication for hyper center. Consequently, a selection of widely used communication channels has been identified and analyzed with regard to the effect requirements for optimizing user experience. The evaluation criteria are divided into 3 groups: general, user profile and channel options. For each criterion the weight of importance for omnichannel communication was defined. The most important thing was to consider how the hyper center can make user identification while respecting the privacy protection requirements. The study carried out also shows what customer experience across digital networks would look like, based on an omnichannel approach owing to privacy protection principles.

Keywords: personal data, privacy protection, omnichannel communication, retail

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

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The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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Authors: Alloysius C. Ogodo, Ositadinma C. Ugbogu, Uzochukwu G. Ekeleme

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Food poisoning and infection by bacteria are of public health significance to both developing and developed countries. Samples of ogi (akamu) prepared from white and yellow variety of maize sold in Uturu and Okigwe were analyzed together with the laboratory prepared ogi for microbial quality using the standard microbiological methods. The analyses showed that both white and yellow variety had total bacterial counts (cfu/g) of 4.0 ×107 and 3.9 x 107 for the laboratory prepared ogi while the commercial ogi had 5.2 x 107 and 4.9 x107, 4.9 x107 and 4.5 x107, 5.4 x107 and 5.0 x107 for Eke-Okigwe, Up-gate and Nkwo-Achara market respectively. The Staphylococcal counts ranged from 2.0 x 102 to 5.0 x102 and 1.0 x 102 to 4.0 x102 for the white and yellow variety from the different markets while Staphylococcal growth was not recorded on the laboratory prepared ogi. The laboratory prepared ogi had no Coliform growth while the commercially prepared ogi had counts of 0.5 x103 to 1.6 x 103 for white variety and 0.3 x 103 to 1.1 x103 for yellow variety respectively. The Lactic acid bacterial count of 3.5x106 and 3.0x106 was recorded for the laboratory ogi while the commercially prepared ogi ranged from 3.2x106 to 4.2x106 (white variety) and 3.0 x106 to 3.9 x106 (yellow). The presence of bacteria isolates from the commercial and laboratory fermented ogi showed that Lactobacillus sp, Leuconostoc sp and Citrobacter sp were present in all the samples, Micrococcus sp and Klebsiella sp were isolated from Eke-Okigwe and ABSU-up-gate markets varieties respectively, E. coli and Staphylococcus sp were present in Eke-Okigwe and Nkwo-Achara markets while Salmonella sp were isolated from the three markets. Hence, there are chances of contracting food borne diseases from commercially prepared ogi. Therefore, there is the need for sanitary measures in the production of fermented cereals so as to minimize the rate of food borne pathogens during processing and storage.

Keywords: ogi, fermentation, bacterial quality, lactic acid bacteria, maize

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Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

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We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

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Authors: Fahmida Khalique Nitu

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Little is known on the biosafety level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in estuarine fish in Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in estuarine fishes using the Polymerase Chain Reaction( PCR) method . The study was conducted on 37 fishes of different species from different types of estuarine fish commonly sold at city markets. Sampling was done on the intestinal tract and gills of each fish. The prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus was found to be 29.72% with higher percentages detected in samples from the gills (89.28%) followed by the intestinal tract (10.71%). The density of Vibrio spp. in the gill of estuarine fishes with an average was 4.4 x103CFU/g and in the intestine samples was 1.5x103 CFU/g. The outcome of the biosafety assessment V. parahaemolyticus in estuarine fish indicates another potential source of food safety issues to consumers.

Keywords: biosafety, estuarine, prevalence, Vibrios

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Authors: Jiahau Guo, Yihe Zhang

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This paper proposes solutions for pricing options on stocks paying discrete dividends in markets with daily price limits. We first extend the intraday density function of Guo and Chang (2020) to a multi-day one and use the framework of Haug et al. (2003) to value European options on stocks paying discrete dividends. Next, we adopt the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to derive accurate and efficient formulae for American options and further employ the three-point Richardson extrapolation to accelerate the computation. Finally, the accuracy of our proposed methods is verified by simulations.

Keywords: daily price limit, discrete dividend, early exercise, fast Fourier transform, multi-day density function, Richardson extrapolation

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Authors: Nadine Sangster, Akil James, Rondell Duke, Aaron Ameerali, Terrence Lalla

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The market place of the 21st century is evolving into one of merging national markets, fragmented consumer markets, and rapidly changing product technologies. The use of new technologies has become vital to the manufacturing industry for their survival and sustainability. This work focused on the assembly type industry in a small developing country and aimed at identifying the use of advanced manufacturing technologies and their impact on this sector of the manufacturing industry. It was found that some technologies were being used and that they had improved the effectiveness of those companies but there was still quite a bit of room for improvements. Some of the recommendations included benchmarking against international standards, the adoption of a “made in TT” campaign and the effective utilisation of the technologies to improve manufacturing effectiveness and thus improve competitive advantages and strategies.

Keywords: advanced manufacturing technology, Trinidad and Tobago, manufacturing, industrial engineering

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Authors: Jie Zhang, Chaomin Zhang

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Based on the network theory, this paper selects three Emerging-Market Multinationals Enterprises (EMNEs) as the research object and takes the typical overseas market opportunities constructed by them as the analysis unit to research the internal mechanism of overseas market opportunity construction of the EMNEs. The results show that: (1) EMNEs overseas market opportunity construction is a complex process, through the continuous interaction between enterprises and entities in the internal and external networks to achieve opportunity prototype, opportunity creation, and opportunity optimization in overseas markets. (2) Governments, foreign institutions and industry associations in the institutional network and competitors, partners, and customers in the commercial networks are the important entities in the construction of overseas market opportunities. Through the interaction of entity perception, relationship construction, and utilization, enterprises can obtain the necessary information, resources, and political asylum in the process of opportunity construction. (3) Organizations, project teams, and organizational sub-units within the enterprise are important internal entities for the construction of overseas market opportunities. Through the connection between different entities, they can achieve the circulation of resources within the organization and promote the opportunity construction of overseas markets. The research conclusions expand the relevant research on international opportunities and have inspiring and guiding significance for the expansion of EMNEs overseas markets.

Keywords: international (overseas) opportunities, opportunity construction, network entities, interaction, resource circulation

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Authors: Reinhard Haas, Amela Ajanovic

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In recent years especially electricity generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar has increased remarkably. To balance electricity supply over time calls for storages has been launched. Because intermittency also exists over longer periods – months, years, especially the need for long-term electricity storages is discussed. The major conclusions of our analysis are: (i) Despite many calls for a prophylactic construction of new storage capacities with respect to all centralized long-term storage technologies the future perspectives will be much less promising than currently indicated in several papers and discussions; (ii) new long term hydro storages will not become economically attractive in general in the next decades; however, daily storages will remain the cheapest option and the most likely to be competitive; (iii) For PtG-technologies it will also become very hard to compete in the electricity markets despite a high technological learning potential. Yet, for hydrogen and methane there are prospects for use in the transport sector.

Keywords: storages, electricity markets, power-to-gas, hydro pump storages, economics

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Kai Kreiskoether, Johannes Wagner, Sarah Fluchs

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The growing speed of innovation in related industries requires the automotive industry to adapt and increase release frequencies of new vehicle derivatives which implies a significant reduction of investments per vehicle and ramp-up times. Emerging markets in various parts of the world augment the currently dominating established main automotive markets. Local content requirements such as import tariffs on final products impede the accessibility of these micro markets, which is why in the future market exploitation will not be driven by pure sales activities anymore but rather by setting up local assembly units. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the concept of decentralized assembly and to discuss and critically assess some currently researched and crucial approaches in production technology. In order to determine the scope in which complementary mobile assembly can be profitable for manufacturers, a general cost model is set up and each cost driver is assessed with respect to varying levels of decentralization. One main result of the paper is that the presented approaches offer huge cost-saving potentials and are thus critical for future production strategies. Nevertheless, they still need to be further exploited in order for decentralized assembly to be profitable for companies. The optimal level of decentralization must, however, be specifically determined in each case and cannot be defined in general.

Keywords: automotive assembly, e-mobility, production technology, release capability, small series assembly

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Authors: Itze Coronel Salomon

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The rise of organized crime and violence related to drug cartels in Mexico has created serious challenges for the authorities to provide security to those who live within its borders. However, to achieve a significant improvement in security is absolute respect for fundamental human rights by the authorities. Irregular migrants in Mexico are at serious risk of abuse. Research by Amnesty International as well as reports of the NHRC (National Human Rights) in Mexico, have indicated the major humanitarian crisis faced by thousands of migrants traveling in the shadows. However, the true extent of the problem remains invisible to the general population. The fact that federal and state governments leave no proper record of abuse and do not publish reliable data contributes to ignorance and misinformation, often spread by the media that portray migrants as the source of crime rather than their victims. Discrimination and intolerance against irregular migrants can generate greater hostility and exclusion. According to the modus operandi that has been recorded criminal organizations and criminal groups linked to drug trafficking structures deprive migrants of their liberty for forced labor and illegal activities related to drug trafficking, even some have been kidnapped for be trained as murderers . If the victim or their family cannot pay the ransom, the kidnapped person may suffer torture, mutilation and amputation of limbs or death. Migrant women are victims of sexual abuse during her abduction as well. In 2011, at least 177 bodies were identified in the largest mass grave found in Mexico, located in the town of San Fernando, in the border state of Tamaulipas, most of the victims were killed by blunt instruments, and most seemed to be immigrants and travelers passing through the country. With dozens of small graves discovered in northern Mexico, this may suggest a change in tactics between organized crime groups to the different means of obtaining revenue and reduce murder profile methods. Competition and conflict over territorial control drug trafficking can provide strong incentives for organized crime groups send signals of violence to the authorities and rival groups. However, as some Mexican organized crime groups are increasingly looking to take advantage of income and vulnerable groups, such as Central American migrants seem less interested in advertising his work to authorities and others, and more interested in evading detection and confrontation. This paper pretends to analyze the introduction of this new trend of kidnapping migrants for forced labors by drug cartels in Mexico into the forms of contemporary slavery and its implications.

Keywords: international law, migration, transnational organized crime

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: Gordon James Knowles

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Historically the Chinatown district in Sandwich Islands has been plagued with the traditional vice crimes of illegal drugs, gambling, and prostitution since the early 1800s. However, a new form of psychologically addictive arcade style table gambling machines has become the dominant form of illegal revenue made in Honolulu, Hawaii. This study attempts to document the drive, desire, or will to play and wager with arcade style video gaming and understand the role of illegal game rooms in facilitating pathological gambling addiction. Indicators of police corruption by Chinese organized crime syndicates related to protection rackets, bribery, and pay-offs were revealed. Information fusion from a police science and sociological intelligence perspective indicates insurgent warfare is being waged on the streets of Honolulu by the People’s Republic of China. This state-sponsored communist terrorism in the Hawaiian Islands used “contactless” irregular warfare entailing: (1) the deployment of psychologically addictive gambling machines, (2) the distribution of the physically addictive fentanyl drug as a lethal chemical weapon, and (3) psychological warfare by circulating pro-China anti-American propaganda newspapers targeted at the small island populace.

Keywords: Chinese and Polynesian organized crime, china daily newspaper, electronic arcade style table games, gaming technology addiction, illegal compulsive gambling, and police intelligence

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Authors: Josiel Delgadillo, Johnson Kinyua, Charles Mutigwe

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The purpose of sentiment analysis is to determine the sentiment strength (e.g., positive, negative, neutral) from a textual source for good decision-making. Natural language processing in domains such as financial markets requires knowledge of domain ontology, and pre-trained language models, such as BERT, have made significant breakthroughs in various NLP tasks by training on large-scale un-labeled generic corpora such as Wikipedia. However, sentiment analysis is a strong domain-dependent task. The rapid growth of social media has given users a platform to share their experiences and views about products, services, and processes, including financial markets. StockTwits and Twitter are social networks that allow the public to express their sentiments in real time. Hence, leveraging the success of unsupervised pre-training and a large amount of financial text available on social media platforms could potentially benefit a wide range of financial applications. This work is focused on sentiment analysis using social media text on platforms such as StockTwits and Twitter. To meet this need, SkyBERT, a domain-specific language model pre-trained and fine-tuned on financial corpora, has been developed. The results show that SkyBERT outperforms current state-of-the-art models in financial sentiment analysis. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of SkyBERT.

Keywords: BERT, financial markets, Twitter, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Nousheen Tariq Bhutta, Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah

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Financial crises become a key impediment towards the development of countries especially in emerging economies. Based on standard finance, many researchers investigated the financial crises in different countries in order to find the underlying reason regarding occurrence these event; however they were unable to provide it. In this essence behavioral finance may be helpful in providing answers to some queries regarding occurrence and prevention of financial crises. In this paper, we explore the some psychological factors comprises of our inspiration, emotion, cognition and culture along with their reflection companies, financial markets and governments that present some supportive arguments. Moreover, we compared the views of Keynes and Minsky in order to validate the underling justification towards occurrence of financial crises and their prevention in future. This study helps the practitioners and policy makers through providing valuable recommendation in order to protect the economies.

Keywords: financial crises, behavioral finance, financial markets, emerging economies

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Authors: Hafiz M. Inamullah, Altaf Ullah

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Environmental degradation is a serious issue that has adverse impacts on the human population locally, regionally, and globally. There is a dire need to adopt an environmentally friendly lifestyle to minimize further environmental degradation. One of the mediums through which environmentally friendly attitudes and behavior may be inculcated is through school education. The purpose of this study was to investigate environmental activities organized in High Schools of District Peshawar. The population for this study was comprised of 77 Headmasters of the High Schools in District Peshawar. A sample of 65 Headmasters was selected randomly from the above-mentioned population. One questionnaire was developed from the relevant literature for the Headmasters and was self-administered by the researcher. The collected data was entered into Excel and was analyzed and interpreted through SPSS 20 using the frequencies and percentages, and the Chi-square test was applied. The results indicated that most high schools had never organized environmental activities for secondary-level students. It was suggested that the high schools might organize various environmental activities such as plantations, park visits, debate competitions, environmental clubs, and drawing competitions.

Keywords: proinvirmenlaism, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, secondary level, Peshawar

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Authors: Vrajesh Chokshi

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In last three decades, the global economy is substantially changed. Today, we are living in highly inter-connected world. The global markets are more open and consumers are well informed about products and services. The information technology revolution has broken all barriers in global business. The E-commerce has given opportunities of global trades to corporate. The IT is extensively used in almost all industries. After liberalization in 1992, the Indian economy is also significantly changed. The IT (information technology) and ITES (IT enable services) are extensively used in supply chain management. In India, previously car rental service business was dominated by local organization and operated through local contact. This industry is very lucrative and to catch this opportunity, many new corporate have ventured into e-commerce car rental service business in India. As the market is very competitive, branding is also very important part of marketing strategy. Now, the E-commerce portals those are in car rental business in India have realized the importance of the same and have started usage of all types of communication channel to promote their brand in different Indian markets. At consumer side, the awareness is also being considerably increased due to marketing communication campaign run by these companies. This paper aims to understand effectiveness of branding strategies in car rental business in India and also tries to identify unique promotional strategies to consolidate brand image of this business in different Indian markets.

Keywords: branding strategies, car rental business, CRM (customer relationship management), ITES (information technology enabled services)

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Authors: Alberti Pascal, Mustapha Mouloua

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Companies are confronted with complex and competitive markets. The dynamics of these markets are becoming more and more fluid, requiring companies to provide competitive, definite and technological responses within increasingly short timeframes. To meet this demand, companies must rely on the cognitive abilities of actors of creativity to provide tangible answers to current contextual problems. It therefore seems appropriate to provide instruments to support this particular stage of innovation. Various methods and tools can meet this requirement. For a number of years we have been conducting experiments on the use of mind maps in the context of innovation projects with teams of different nationalities. After presenting the main research carried out on this theme, we discuss the possible correlation between the different uses of iconic tools and certain types of innovation. We then provide a link with different cognitive logic. Finally, we conclude by putting our research into perspective.

Keywords: creativity, innovation, causal logic, effectual logic, mind mapping

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Authors: Sohail Zafar, Sardar Javaid Iqbal Khan

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We use a parametric approach within a translog cost function framework to estimate the economies of scale in National Bank of Pakistan from 1997 to 2013. The results indicate significant economies of scale throughout the sample at aggregates and disaggregates taking in account size subject to stipulation ownership. The factor markets often produce scale inefficiencies in the banking of developing countries like Pakistan such inefficiencies are common due to distortion in factor markets leading to the use of inappropriate factor proportions. The findings suggest that National Bank of Pakistan diversify their asset portfolios that it has cost advantage, therefore, expansion in size should be encouraged under current technology because it appears to be cost effective. In addition, our findings support the implementation of universal banking model in Pakistan.

Keywords: scale economies, cost function, disaggregates, aggregates

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: E.George, P. Ojeaga, O. Matthew, A. Adekola

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Can foreign direct investment (FDI), promote growth in Africa? What does the inflow of investment hold for African emerging economies? Are the determinants of FDI different for different regional blocs in Africa? This study reviews the implication of FDI for different regional blocs in Africa. FDI was found to have a significant effect on growth in North Africa but had no significant effect in East, Southern and West Africa. FDI was also found not to be driving growth in the whole of Africa in a significant manner. The implications of the findings are that even though trade openness seems to be a major factor driving FDI. Poor domestic markets were still preventing many African economies from taking full advantage of the gains from foreign direct investment. The study results could be useful to scholars who study the dynamics surrounding FDI disbursement and strategies on how FDI can drive growth in developing countries.

Keywords: Africa, political economy, FDI, regional policy, markets

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Authors: Vitali Kremez

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The researcher monitored an organized ransomware campaign in order to gain significant visibility into the tactics, techniques, and procedures employed by a campaign boss operating a ransomware scheme out of Russia. As the Russian hacking community lowered the access requirements for unsophisticated Russian cybercriminals to engage in ransomware campaigns, corporations and individuals face a commensurately greater challenge of effectively protecting their data and operations from being held ransom. This report discusses two notorious ransomware campaigns. Though the loss of data can be devastating, the findings demonstrate that sending ransom payments does not always help obtain data. Key learnings: 1. From the ransomware affiliate perspective, such campaigns have significantly lowered the barriers for entry for low-tier cybercriminals. 2. Ransomware revenue amounts are not as glamorous and fruitful as they are often publicly reported. Average ransomware crime bosses make only $90K per year on average. 3. Data gathered indicates that sending ransom payments does not always help obtain data. 4. The talk provides the complete payout structure and Bitcoin laundering operation related to the ransomware-as-a-service campaign.

Keywords: bitcoin, cybercrime, ransomware, Russia

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Authors: Salma Krafessi

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The financial markets have a multifaceted, intricate environment, and enormous volumes of data are produced every day. To find investment possibilities, possible fraudulent activity, and market oddities, accurate anomaly identification in this data is essential. Conventional methods for detecting anomalies frequently fail to capture the complex organization of financial data. In order to improve the identification of abnormalities in financial time series data, this study presents Tucker Decomposition as a reliable multi-way analysis approach. We start by gathering closing prices for the S&P 500 index across a number of decades. The information is converted to a three-dimensional tensor format, which contains internal characteristics and temporal sequences in a sliding window structure. The tensor is then broken down using Tucker Decomposition into a core tensor and matching factor matrices, allowing latent patterns and relationships in the data to be captured. A possible sign of abnormalities is the reconstruction error from Tucker's Decomposition. We are able to identify large deviations that indicate unusual behavior by setting a statistical threshold. A thorough examination that contrasts the Tucker-based method with traditional anomaly detection approaches validates our methodology. The outcomes demonstrate the superiority of Tucker's Decomposition in identifying intricate and subtle abnormalities that are otherwise missed. This work opens the door for more research into multi-way data analysis approaches across a range of disciplines and emphasizes the value of tensor-based methods in financial analysis.

Keywords: tucker decomposition, financial markets, financial engineering, artificial intelligence, decomposition models

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Authors: K. G. Sorokozherdyev, E. A. Efimov

Abstract:

The socio-economic development of regions and countries is an important research issue. Today, in the face of many negative events in the global and regional economies, it is especially important to identify those areas that can serve as sources of economic growth and the basis for the well-being of the population. This study aims to identify the most important sectors of the economy of the Arkhangelsk region that can contribute to the socio-economic development of the region as a whole. For research, the Arkhangelsk region was taken as one of the typical Russian regions that do not have significant reserves of hydrocarbons nor there are located any large industrial complexes. In this regard, the question of possible origins of economic growth seems especially relevant. The basis of this study constitutes the distributed lag regression model (ADL model) developed by the authors, which is based on quarterly data on the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region for the period 2004-2016. As a result, we obtained three equations reflecting the dynamics of three indicators of the socio-economic development of the region -the average wage, the regional GRP, and the birth rate. The influencing factors are the shares in GRP of such sectors as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, as well as the financial sector. The study showed that the greatest influence on the socio-economic development of the region is exerted by such industries as wholesale and retail trade, construction, and industrial sectors. The study can be the basis for forecasting and modeling the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region in the short and medium term. It also can be helpful while analyzing the effectiveness of measures aimed at stimulating those or other industries of the region. The model can be used in developing a regional development strategy.

Keywords: regional economic development, regional sectoral structure, ADL model, Arkhangelsk region

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Authors: Engy Eissa, Dina M. Yousri

Abstract:

COVID-19 has hit massively the world economy, financial markets and even societies’ livelihood. The infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus was claimed responsible for a shrink in the global economy by 4.4% in 2020. Shortly after the first case in Wuhan was identified, a quick surge in the number of confirmed cases in China was evident and a vast spread worldwide is recorded with cases surpassing the 500,000 cases. Irrespective of the disease’s trajectory in each country, a call for immediate action and prompt government intervention was needed. Given that there is no one-size-fits-all approach across the world, a number of containment and adoption policies were embraced. It was starting by enforcing complete lockdown like China to even stricter policies targeted containing the spread of the virus, augmenting the efficiency of health systems, and controlling the economic outcomes arising from this crisis. Hence, this paper has three folds; first, it examines the impact of containment policies taken by governments on controlling the number of cases and deaths in the given countries. Second, to assess the ramifications of COVID-19 on financial markets measured by stock returns. Third, to study the impact of containment policies measured by the government response index, the stringency index, the containment health index, and the economic support index on financial markets performance. Using a sample of daily data covering the period 31st of January 2020 to 15th of April 2021 for the 10 most hit countries in wave one by COVID-19 namely; Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia, UK, USA, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. The aforementioned relationships were tested using Panel VAR Regression. The preliminary results showed that the number of daily deaths had an impact on the stock returns; moreover, the health containment policies and the economic support provided by the governments had a significant effect on lowering the impact of COVID-19 on stock returns.

Keywords: COVID-19, government policies, stock returns, VAR

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