Search results for: PV power forecasting

Authors: Brahim Berbaoui

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In this paper, a new particle swarm optimization (PSO) based method is proposed for the implantation of optimal harmonic power flow in power systems. In this algorithm approach, proportional integral controller for reference compensating currents of active power filter is performed in order to minimize the total harmonic distortion (THD). The simulation results show that the new control method using PSO approach is not only easy to be implanted, but also very effective in reducing the unwanted harmonics and compensating reactive power. The studies carried out have been accomplished using the MATLAB Simulink Power System Toolbox.

Keywords: shunt active power filter, power quality, current control, proportional integral controller, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: Arvind Dhingra, Ashwani Kumar Sharma

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Power quality is an important parameter for today’s consumers. Various custom power devices are in use to give a proper supply of power quality. Dynamic Voltage Restorer is one such custom power device. DVR is a static VAR device which is used for series compensation. It is a power electronic device that is used to inject a voltage in series and in synchronism to compensate for the sag in voltage. Inductive Loads are a major source of power quality distortion. The induction furnace is one such typical load. A typical induction furnace is used for melting the scrap or iron. At the time of starting the melting process, the power quality is distorted to a large extent especially with the induction of harmonics. DVR is one such approach to mitigate these harmonics. This paper is an attempt to overview the various control strategies being followed for control of power quality by using DVR. An overview of control of harmonics using DVR is also presented.

Keywords: DVR, power quality, harmonics, harmonic mitigation

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Authors: Oluwatosin S. Adeoye

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The power quality issues in the world today are critical to the development of different nations. Prosperity of each nation depends on availability of constant power supply. Constant power supply is a major challenge in Africa particularly in Nigeria where the generated power is than thirty percent of the required power. The metrics of power quality are voltage dip, flickers, spikes, harmonics and interruptions. The level of interruptions in Ekiti State was examined through the investigation of the causes of power interruptions in the State. The method used was the collection of data from the Distribution Company, assessment through simple programming as a command for plotting the graphs through the use of MATLAB 2015 depicting the behavioural pattern of the interruption for a period of six months in 2016. The result shows that the interrelationship between the interruptions and development. Recommendations were suggested with the objective of solving the problems being set up by interruptions in the State and these include installation of reactors, automatic voltage regulators and effective tap changing system on the lines, busses and transformer substation respectively.

Keywords: development, frequency, interruption, power, quality

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Authors: F. Ahwide, Y. Aldali

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This article presents a current and future energy situation in Libya. The electric power efficiency and operating hours in power plants are evaluated from 2005 to 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions in most of power plants are estimated. In 2005, the efficiency of steam power plants achieved a range of 20% to 28%. While, the gas turbine power plants efficiency ranged between 9% and 25%, this can be considered as low efficiency. However, the efficiency improvement has clearly observed in some power plants from 2008 to 2010, especially in the power plant of North Benghazi and west Tripoli. In fact, these power plants have modified to combine cycle. The efficiency of North Benghazi power plant has increased from 25% to 46.6%, while in Tripoli it is increased from 22% to 34%. On the other hand, the efficiency improvement is not observed in the gas turbine power plants. When compared to the quantity of fuel used, the carbon dioxide emissions resulting from electricity generation plants were very high. Finally, an estimation of the energy demand has been done to the maximum load and the annual load factor (i.e., the ratio between the output power and installed power).

Keywords: power plant, efficiency improvement, carbon dioxide emissions, energy situation in Libya

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: M. N. Tandjaoui, C. Banoudjafar, C. Benachaiba, O. Abdelkhalek, A. Kechich

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Advanced power electronic systems are deemed to be an integral part of renewable, green, and efficient energy systems. Wind energy is one of the renewable means of electricity generation that is now the world’s fastest growing energy source can bring new challenges when it is connected to the power grid due to the fluctuation nature of the wind and the comparatively new types of its generators. The wind energy is part of the worldwide discussion on the future of energy generation and use and consequent effects on the environment. However, this paper will introduce some of the requirements and aspects of the power electronic involved with modern wind generation systems, including modern power electronics and converters, and the issues of integrating wind turbines into power systems.

Keywords: power electronics, renewable energy, smart grid, green energy, power technology

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Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

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The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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Authors: Alireza Zabihi, Saeed Peyghami, Hossein Mokhtari

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With the increasing deployment of renewable power plants, such as solar and wind, it is crucial to measure the harmonic situation of the grid. This paper proposes a global voltage harmonic index to measure the harmonic situation of the power grid with a focus on power transformers. The power electronics systems used to connect these plants to the network can introduce harmonics, leading to increased losses, reduced efficiency, false operation of protective relays, and equipment damage due to harmonic intensifications. The proposed index considers the losses caused by harmonics in power transformers which are of great importance and value to the network, providing a comprehensive measure of the harmonic situation of the grid. The effectiveness of the proposed index is evaluated on a real-world distribution network, and the results demonstrate its ability to identify the harmonic situation of the network, particularly in relation to power transformers. The proposed index provides a comprehensive measure of the harmonic situation of the grid, taking into account the losses caused by harmonics in power transformers. The proposed index has the potential to support power companies in optimizing their power systems and to guide researchers in developing effective mitigation strategies for harmonics in the power grid.

Keywords: global voltage harmonic index, harmonics, power grid, power quality, power transformers, renewable energy

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Authors: Kang Hyun Yi

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Wireless power transfer technologies are inductive coupling, magnetic resonance, and capacitive coupling methods, typically. Among them, the capacitive coupling wireless power transfer, also named Capacitive Coupling Wireless Power Transfer (CCWPT), has been researched to overcome the drawbacks of other approaches. The CCWPT has many advantages such as a simple structure, low standing power loss, reduced Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and the ability to transfer power through metal barriers. In this paper, the CCWPT system with 6.78MHz class D inverter is proposed and analyzed. The proposed system is consisted of the 6.78MHz class D inverter with the LC low pass filter, the capacitor between a transmitter and a receiver and impedance transformers. The system is verified with a prototype for charging mobile devices.

Keywords: wireless power transfer, capacitive coupling power transfer, class D inverter, 6.78MHz

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Authors: Eti Mizrahi, Gizem İntepe

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The geographical location of Turkey that stretches from Asia to Europe and Russia to Africa makes it an important logistics hub in the region. Although logistics is a developing sector in Turkey, the stock market representation is still low with only two companies listed in Turkey’s stock exchange since 2010. In this paper, we use the daily values of these two listed stocks as a benchmark for the logistics sector. After modeling logistics stock prices, an empirical examination is conducted between the existing logistics indices and these stock prices. The paper investigates whether the measures of logistics stocks are correlated with newly available logistics indices. It also shows the reflection of the economic activity in the logistics sector on the stock exchange market. The results presented in this paper are the first analysis of the behavior of logistics indices and logistics stock prices for Turkey.

Keywords: forecasting, logistic stock exchange, modeling, Africa

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Authors: Ferydon Salehifar, Hassan Safarikia, Hossein Boromandfar

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Karkheh plant in Iran's Khuzestan province and is located in the city Andimeshk. The plant has a production capacity of 400 MW units with water and three hours. One of the important parameters of each country's power grid stability is the stability of the power grid is affected by the voltage and frequency In plants, the amount of active power frequency control is done so that when the unit is placed in the frequency control their productivity is a function of frequency and output power varies with frequency. Produced by hydroelectric power plants with the water level behind the dam has a direct relationship And to decrease and increase the water level behind the dam in order to reduce the power output increases But these changes have a different interval is due to some mechanical problems such as turbine cavitation and vibration are limited. In this study, the range of the frequency control can be Karkheh manufacturing plants have been identified and their effectiveness has been determined.

Keywords: Karkheh power, frequency control system, active power, efficiency

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Authors: Ziaullah, Shah Wahab Ali

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Micro-grid equipped with heterogeneous energy resources present the idea of small scale distributed energy management (DEM). DEM helps in minimizing the transmission and operation costs, power management and peak load demands. Micro-grids are collections of small, independent controllable power-generating units and renewable energy resources. Micro-grids also motivate to enable active customer participation by giving accessibility of real-time information and control to the customer. The capability of fast restoration against faulty situation, integration of renewable energy resources and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) make micro-grid as an ideal system for distributed power systems. Micro-grids can have a bank of energy storage devices. The energy management system of micro-grid can perform real-time energy forecasting of renewable resources, energy storage elements and controllable loads in making proper short-term scheduling to minimize total operating costs. We present a review of existing micro-grids optimization objectives/goals, constraints, solution approaches and tools used in micro-grids for energy management. Cost-benefit analysis of micro-grid reveals that cooperation among different micro-grids can play a vital role in the reduction of import energy cost and system stability. Cooperative micro-grids energy trading is an approach to electrical distribution energy resources that allows local energy demands more control over the optimization of power resources and uses. Cooperation among different micro-grids brings the interconnectivity and power trading issues. According to the literature, it shows that open area of research is available for cooperative micro-grids energy trading. In this paper, we proposed and formulated the efficient energy management/trading module for interconnected micro-grids. It is believed that this research will open new directions in future for energy trading in cooperative micro-grids/interconnected micro-grids.

Keywords: distributed energy management, information and communication technologies, microgrid, energy management

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Jie Yang, Qifu Cheng, Yafang Liu, Zhijie Gu

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Controlled emissions of effluent from nuclear power plants are an important means of ensuring environmental safety. In order to fully grasp the actual discharge level of nuclear power plant in China's nuclear power plant in the pressurized water reactor and heavy water reactor, it will use the global average nuclear power plant effluent discharge as a reference to the standard analysis of China's nuclear power plant environmental discharge status. The results show that the average normalized emission of liquid tritium in PWR nuclear power plants in China is slightly higher than the global average value, and the other nuclides emissions are lower than the global average values.

Keywords: radioactive effluent, HWR, PWR, nuclear power plant

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Authors: A. Sardi, J. Zbitou, A. Errkik, L. El Abdellaoui, A. Tajmouati, M. Latrach

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This paper presents analysis and design of a wideband Wilkinson power divider for wireless applications. The design is accomplished by transforming the lengths and impedances of the quarter wavelength sections of the conventional Wilkinson power divider into U-shaped sections. The designed power divider is simulated by using ADS Agilent technologies and CST microwave studio software. It is shown that the proposed power divider has simple topology and good performances in terms of insertion loss, port matching and isolation at all operating frequencies (1.8 GHz, 2.45 GHz and 3.55 GHz).

Keywords: ADS agilent technologies, CST microwave studio, microstrip, wideband, wilkinson power divider

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Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

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Authors: O. Abdelkhalek, A. Naimi, M. Rami, M. N. Tandjaoui, A. Kechich

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This paper deals with the active and reactive power flow analysis inside the unified power quality conditioner (UPQC) during several cases. The UPQC is a combination of shunt and series active power filter (APF). It is one of the best solutions towards the mitigation of voltage sags and swells problems on distribution network. This analysis can provide the helpful information to well understanding the interaction between the series filter, the shunt filter, the DC bus link and electrical network. The mathematical analysis is based on active and reactive power flow through the shunt and series active power filter. Wherein series APF can absorb or deliver the active power to mitigate a swell or sage voltage where in the both cases it absorbs a small reactive power quantity whereas the shunt active power absorbs or releases the active power for stabilizing the storage capacitor’s voltage as well as the power factor correction. The voltage sag and voltage swell are usually interpreted through the DC bus voltage curves. These two phenomena are introduced in this paper with a new interpretation based on the active and reactive power flow analysis inside the UPQC. For simplifying this study, a linear load is supposed in this digital simulation. The simulation results are carried out to confirm the analysis done.

Keywords: UPQC, Power flow analysis, shunt filter, series filter.

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: Düzgün Akmaz, Hüseyin Erişti

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In the last few years, harmonics have been occurred with the increasing use of nonlinear loads, and these harmonics have been an ever increasing problem for the line systems. This situation importantly affects the quality of power and gives large losses to the network. An efficient way to solve these problems is providing harmonic compensation through parallel active power filters. Many methods can be used in the control systems of the parallel active power filters which provide the compensation. These methods efficiently affect the performance of the active power filters. For this reason, the chosen control method is significant. In this study, Fourier analysis (FA) control method and synchronous reference frame (SRF) control method are discussed. These control methods are designed for both eliminate harmonics and perform reactive power compensation in MATLAB/Simulink pack program and are tested. The results have been compared for each two methods.

Keywords: parallel active power filters, harmonic compensation, power quality, harmonics

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Authors: A. R. Alesaadi

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Flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices have an important rule on expended electrical transmission networks. These devices can provide control of one or more AC transmission system parameters to enhance controllability and increase power transfer capability. In this paper the effect of these devices on reliability of electrical networks is studied and it is shown that using of FACTS devices can improve the reliability of power networks and power quality in electrical networks, significantly.

Keywords: FACTS devices, power networks, power quality, STATCOM

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: control system, error, solar panel, MPPT tracking

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Authors: A. Anitha, M. Aishwariya

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The realization of truly ubiquitous wireless sensor networks (WSN) demands Ultra-low power wireless communication capability. Because the radio transceiver in a wireless sensor node consumes more power when compared to the computation part it is necessary to reduce the power consumption. Hence, a low power transceiver is designed and implemented in a 120 nm CMOS technology for wireless sensor nodes. The power consumption of the transceiver is reduced still by maintaining the sensitivity. The transceiver designed combines the blocks including differential oscillator, mixer, envelope detector, power amplifiers, and LNA. RF signal modulation and demodulation is carried by On-Off keying method at 2.4 GHz which is said as ISM band. The transmitter demonstrates an output power of 2.075 mW while consuming a supply voltage of range 1.2 V-5.0 V. Here the comparison of LNA and power amplifier is done to obtain an amplifier which produces a high gain of 1.608 dB at receiver which is suitable to produce a desired sensitivity. The multistage RF amplifier is used to improve the gain at the receiver side. The power dissipation of the circuit is in the range of 0.183-0.323 mW. The receiver achieves a sensitivity of about -95 dBm with data rate of 1 Mbps.

Keywords: CMOS, envelope detector, ISM band, LNA, low power electronics, PA, wireless transceiver

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: Abdalla Mohamed Eblabla

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Due to the high increase and demand for a wide assortment of applications that require low-cost, high-efficiency, and compact systems, RF power amplifiers are considered the most critical design blocks and power consuming components in wireless communication, TV transmission, radar, and RF heating. Therefore, much research has been carried out in order to improve the performance of power amplifiers. Classes-A, B, C, D, E, and F are the main techniques for realizing power amplifiers. An implementation of high efficiency class-F power amplifier with Gallium Nitride (GaN) High Electron Mobility Transistor (HEMT) was realized in this paper. The simulation and optimization of the class-F power amplifier circuit model was undertaken using Agilent’s Advanced Design system (ADS). The circuit was designed using lumped elements.

Keywords: Power Amplifier (PA), gallium nitride (GaN), Agilent’s Advanced Design System (ADS), lumped elements

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Authors: Wenqi Liu, Reginald Bailey

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This study explores an advanced approach to enhancing B2B sales forecasting by integrating machine learning models with a rule-based decision framework. The methodology begins with the development of a machine learning classification model to predict conversion likelihood, aiming to improve accuracy over traditional methods like logistic regression. The classification model's effectiveness is measured using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score, alongside a feature importance analysis to identify key predictors. Following this, a machine learning regression model is used to forecast sales value, with the objective of reducing mean absolute error (MAE) compared to linear regression techniques. The regression model's performance is assessed using MAE, root mean square error (RMSE), and R-squared metrics, emphasizing feature contribution to the prediction. To bridge the gap between predictive analytics and decision-making, a rule-based decision model is introduced that prioritizes customers based on predefined thresholds for conversion probability and predicted sales value. This approach significantly enhances customer prioritization and improves overall sales performance by increasing conversion rates and optimizing revenue generation. The findings suggest that this combined framework offers a practical, data-driven solution for sales teams, facilitating more strategic decision-making in B2B environments.

Keywords: sales forecasting, machine learning, rule-based decision model, customer prioritization, predictive analytics

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Authors: Ahmed Elsebaay, Maged A. Abu Adma, Mahmoud Ramadan

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This study presents a technique clarifying the effect of ambient air temperature and loads power factor changing from standard values on electric generator power rating. The study introduces an optimized technique for selecting the correct electric generator power rating for certain application and operating site ambient temperature. The de-rating factors due to the previous effects will be calculated to be applied on a generator to select its power rating accurately to avoid unsafe operation and save its lifetime. The information in this paper provides a simple, accurate, and general method for synchronous generator selection and eliminates common errors.

Keywords: ambient temperature, de-rating factor, electric generator, power factor

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Mahmoud Huleihil

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In this study, the performance of a thermodynamic gas cycle of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power generation is considered and presented in terms of power efficiency curves. The dissipation mechanisms considered include: fluid friction modeled by means of the isentropic efficiency of the compressor, heat transfer leakage directly from the hot reservoir to the cold heat reservoir, and constant velocity of the MHD generator. The study demonstrates that power and efficiency vanish at the extremes of both slow and fast operating conditions. These points are demonstrated on power efficiency curves and the locus of efficiency at maximum power and the locus of maximum efficiency. Qualitatively, the considered loss mechanisms have a similar effect on the efficiency at maximum power operation and on maximum efficiency operation, thus these efficiencies are reduced, even for small values of the loss mechanisms.

Keywords: magnetohydrodynamic generator, electrical efficiency, maximum power, maximum efficiency, heat engine

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Samira Ali

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Aim: The purpose of this study was to describe nurses’ potential use of power levels to influence the standardization of nursing terminology (SNT) in electronic health records. Also, to examine the relationship between nurses’ use of power levels and variables such as position, communication and the potential goal of achieving SNT in electronic health records. Background: In an era of evidence-based nursing care, with an emphasis on nursing’s ability to measure the care rendered and improve outcomes of care, little is known about the nurse’s potential use of their power to SNT in electronic health records and lack of use of an SNT in electronic health records. Method: This descriptive, correlational, and cross-sectional study was conducted using survey methodology to assess the nurse’s use of power to influence the SNT in electronic health records. The Theory of Group Power within Organizations (TGPO) provided the conceptual framework for this study. A total of (n=232) nurses responded to the survey, posted on three nursing organizations’ websites. Results revealed the mean Cronbach’s alpha of the subscales was .94, suggesting high internal consistency. The mean power capability score was moderately high, at 134.22 (SD = 18.49). Power Capacity was significantly correlated with Power Capability (r = .96, p < .001). Power Capacity subscales were significantly correlated with Power Capacity and Power Capability. Conclusion: The mean Cronbach’s alpha of the subscales was .94 suggestive of reliability of the instrument. Nurses could potentially use power to achieve their goals, such as the implementation of SNT in electronic health records.

Keywords: nurses, power, actualized power, nursing terminology, electronic health records

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

Abstract:

Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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