Search results for: exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution
3027 Strategies for Synchronizing Chocolate Conching Data Using Dynamic Time Warping
Authors: Fernanda A. P. Peres, Thiago N. Peres, Flavio S. Fogliatto, Michel J. Anzanello
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Batch processes are widely used in food industry and have an important role in the production of high added value products, such as chocolate. Process performance is usually described by variables that are monitored as the batch progresses. Data arising from these processes are likely to display a strong correlation-autocorrelation structure, and are usually monitored using control charts based on multiway principal components analysis (MPCA). Process control of a new batch is carried out comparing the trajectories of its relevant process variables with those in a reference set of batches that yielded products within specifications; it is clear that proper determination of the reference set is key for the success of a correct signalization of non-conforming batches in such quality control schemes. In chocolate manufacturing, misclassifications of non-conforming batches in the conching phase may lead to significant financial losses. In such context, the accuracy of process control grows in relevance. In addition to that, the main assumption in MPCA-based monitoring strategies is that all batches are synchronized in duration, both the new batch being monitored and those in the reference set. Such assumption is often not satisfied in chocolate manufacturing process. As a consequence, traditional techniques as MPCA-based charts are not suitable for process control and monitoring. To address that issue, the objective of this work is to compare the performance of three dynamic time warping (DTW) methods in the alignment and synchronization of chocolate conching process variables’ trajectories, aimed at properly determining the reference distribution for multivariate statistical process control. The power of classification of batches in two categories (conforming and non-conforming) was evaluated using the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. Real data from a milk chocolate conching process was collected and the following variables were monitored over time: frequency of soybean lecithin dosage, rotation speed of the shovels, current of the main motor of the conche, and chocolate temperature. A set of 62 batches with durations between 495 and 1,170 minutes was considered; 53% of the batches were known to be conforming based on lab test results and experts’ evaluations. Results showed that all three DTW methods tested were able to align and synchronize the conching dataset. However, synchronized datasets obtained from these methods performed differently when inputted in the KNN classification algorithm. Kassidas, MacGregor and Taylor’s (named KMT) method was deemed the best DTW method for aligning and synchronizing a milk chocolate conching dataset, presenting 93.7% accuracy, 97.2% sensitivity and 90.3% specificity in batch classification, being considered the best option to determine the reference set for the milk chocolate dataset. Such method was recommended due to the lowest number of iterations required to achieve convergence and highest average accuracy in the testing portion using the KNN classification technique.Keywords: batch process monitoring, chocolate conching, dynamic time warping, reference set distribution, variable duration
Procedia PDF Downloads 1623026 Study of Influencing Factors on the Flowability of Jute Nonwoven Reinforced Sheet Molding Compound
Authors: Miriam I. Lautenschläger, Max H. Scheiwe, Kay A. Weidenmann, Frank Henning, Peter Elsner
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Due to increasing environmental awareness jute fibers are more often used in fiber reinforced composites. In the Sheet Molding Compound (SMC) process, the mold cavity is filled via material flow allowing more complex component design. But, the difficulty of using jute fibers in this process is the decreased capacity of fiber movement in the mold. A comparative flow study with jute nonwoven reinforced SMC was conducted examining the influence of the fiber volume content, the grammage of the jute nonwoven textile and a mechanical modification of the nonwoven textile on the flowability. The nonwoven textile reinforcement was selected to support homogeneous fiber distribution. Trials were performed using two SMC paste formulations differing only in filler type. Platy-shaped kaolin with a mean particle size of 0.8 μm and ashlar calcium carbonate with a mean particle size of 2.7 μm were selected as fillers. Ensuring comparability of the two SMC paste formulations the filler content was determined to reach equal initial viscosity for both systems. The calcium carbonate filled paste was set as reference. The flow study was conducted using a jute nonwoven textile with 300 g/m² as reference. The manufactured SMC sheets were stacked and centrally placed in a square mold. The mold coverage was varied between 25 and 90% keeping the weight of the stack for comparison constant. Comparing the influence of the two fillers kaolin yielded better results regarding a homogeneous fiber distribution. A mold coverage of about 68% was already sufficient to homogeneously fill the mold cavity whereas for calcium carbonate filled system about 79% mold coverage was necessary. The flow study revealed a strong influence of the fiber volume content on the flowability. A fiber volume content of 12 vol.-% and 25 vol.-% were compared for both SMC formulations. The lower fiber volume content strongly supported fiber transport whereas 25 vol.-% showed insignificant influence. The results indicate a limiting fiber volume content for the flowability. The influence of the nonwoven textile grammage was determined using nonwoven jute material with 500 g/m² and a fiber volume content of 20 vol.-%. The 500 g/m² reinforcement material showed inferior results with regard to fiber movement. A mold coverage of about 90 % was required to prevent the destruction of the nonwoven structure. Below this mold coverage the 500 g/m² nonwoven material was ripped and torn apart. Low mold coverages led to damage of the textile reinforcement. Due to the ripped nonwoven structure the textile was modified with cuts in order to facilitate fiber movement in the mold. Parallel cuts of about 20 mm length and 20 mm distance to each other were applied to the textile and stacked with varying orientations prior to molding. Stacks with unidirectional orientated cuts over stacks with cuts in various directions e.g. (0°, 45°, 90°, -45°) were investigated. The mechanical modification supported tearing of the textile without achieving benefit for the flowability.Keywords: filler, flowability, jute fiber, nonwoven, sheet molding compound
Procedia PDF Downloads 3263025 [Keynote Talk]: Formal Specification and Description Language and Message Sequence Chart to Model and Validate Session Initiation Protocol Services
Authors: Sa’ed Abed, Mohammad H. Al Shayeji, Ovais Ahmed, Sahel Alouneh
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Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is a signaling layer protocol for building, adjusting and ending sessions among participants including Internet conferences, telephone calls and multimedia distribution. SIP facilitates user movement by proxying and forwarding requests to the present location of the user. In this paper, we provide a formal Specification and Description Language (SDL) and Message Sequence Chart (MSC) to model and define the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) SIP protocol and its sample services resulted from informal SIP specification. We create an “Abstract User Interface” using case analysis so that can be applied to identify SIP services more explicitly. The issued sample SIP features are then used as case scenarios; they are revised in MSCs format and validated to their corresponding SDL models.Keywords: modeling, MSC, SDL, SIP, validating
Procedia PDF Downloads 2063024 Permeodynamic Particulate Matter Filtration for Improved Air Quality
Authors: Hamad M. Alnagran, Mohammed S. Imbabi
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Particulate matter (PM) in the air we breathe is detrimental to health. Overcoming this problem has attracted interest and prompted research on the use of PM filtration in commercial buildings and homes to be carried out. The consensus is that tangible health benefits can result from the use of PM filters in most urban environments, to clean up the building’s fresh air supply and thereby reduce exposure of residents to airborne PM. The authors have investigated and are developing a new large-scale Permeodynamic Filtration Technology (PFT) capable of permanently filtering and removing airborne PMs from outdoor spaces, thus also benefiting internal spaces such as the interiors of buildings. Theoretical models were developed, and laboratory trials carried out to determine, and validate through measurement permeodynamic filtration efficiency and pressure drop as functions of PM particle size distributions. The conclusion is that PFT offers a potentially viable, cost effective end of pipe solution to the problem of airborne PM.Keywords: air filtration, particulate matter, particle size distribution, permeodynamic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1973023 Feasibility of Ground Alkali-Active Sandstone Powder for Use in Concrete as Mineral Admixture
Authors: Xia Chen, Hua-Quan Yang, Shi-Hua Zhou
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Alkali-active sandstone aggregate was ground by vertical and ball mill into particles with residue over 45 μm less than 12%, and investigations have been launched on particles distribution and characterization of ground sandstone powder, fluidity, heat of hydration, strength as well as hydration products morphology of pastes with incorporation of ground sandstone powder. Results indicated that ground alkali-active sandstone powder with residue over 45 μm less than 8% was easily obtainable, and specific surface area was more sensitive to characterize its fineness with extension of grinding length. Incorporation of sandstone powder resulted in higher water demand and lower strength, advanced hydration of C3A and C2S within 3days and refined pore structure. Based on its manufacturing, characteristics and influence on properties of pastes, it was concluded that sandstone powder was a good selection for use in concrete as mineral admixture.Keywords: concrete, mineral admixture, hydration, structure
Procedia PDF Downloads 3243022 Renovation of Industrial Zones in Ho Chi Minh City: An Approach from Changing Function of Processing to Urban Warehousing
Authors: Thu Le Thi Bao
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Industrial parks have both active roles in promoting economic development and source of appearance of boarding houses and slums in the adjacent area, lacking infrastructure, causing many social evils. The context of the recent pandemic and climate change on a global scale pose issues that need to be resolved for sustainable development. Ho Chi Minh City aims to develop housing for migrant workers to stabilize human resources and, at the same time, solve problems of social evils caused by poor living conditions. The paper focuses on the content of renovating existing industrial parks and worker accommodation in Ho Chi Minh City to propose appropriate models, contributing to the goal of urban embellishment and solutions for industrial parks to adapt to abnormal impact conditions such as pandemics, climate change, crises.Keywords: industrial park, social housing, accommodation, distribution center
Procedia PDF Downloads 1103021 Mechanical and Thermal Stresses in A Functionally Graded Cylinders
Authors: Ali Kurşun, Emre Kara, Erhan Çetin, Şafak Aksoy, Ahmet Kesimli
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In this study, thermal elastic stress distribution occurred on long hollow cylinders made of functionally graded material (FGM) was analytically defined under thermal, mechanical and thermo mechanical loads. In closed form solutions for elastic stresses and displacements are obtained analytically by using the infinitesimal deformation theory of elasticity. It was assumed that elasticity modulus, thermal expansion coefficient and density of cylinder materials could change in terms of an exponential function as for that Poisson’s ratio was constant. A gradient parameter n is chosen between - 1 and 1. When n equals to zero, the disc becomes isotropic. Circumferential, radial and longitudinal stresses in the FGMs cylinders are depicted in the figures. As a result, the gradient parameters have great effects on the stress systems of FGMs cylinders.Keywords: functionally graded materials, thermoelasticity, thermomechanical load, hollow cylinder.
Procedia PDF Downloads 4513020 Improving Sales through Inventory Reduction: A Retail Chain Case Study
Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso
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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 2633019 Impact of Weather Conditions on Generalized Frequency Division Multiplexing over Gamma Gamma Channel
Authors: Muhammad Sameer Ahmed, Piotr Remlein, Tansal Gucluoglu
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The technique called as Generalized frequency division multiplexing (GFDM) used in the free space optical channel can be a good option for implementation free space optical communication systems. This technique has several strengths e.g. good spectral efficiency, low peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR), adaptability and low co-channel interference. In this paper, the impact of weather conditions such as haze, rain and fog on GFDM over the gamma-gamma channel model is discussed. A Trade off between link distance and system performance under intense weather conditions is also analysed. The symbol error probability (SEP) of GFDM over the gamma-gamma turbulence channel is derived and verified with the computer simulations.Keywords: free space optics, generalized frequency division multiplexing, weather conditions, gamma gamma distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 1623018 Drum Scrubber Performance Assessment and Improvement to Achieve the Desired Product Quality
Authors: Prateek Singh, Arun Kumar Pandey, C. Raghu Kumar, M. R. Rath, A. S. Reddy
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Drum scrubber is widely used equipment in the washing of Iron ore. The purpose of the scrubber is to release the adhered fine clayey particles from the iron-bearing particles. Presently, the iron ore wash plants in the Eastern region of India consist of the scrubber, double deck screen followed by screw classifier as the main unit operations. Hence, scrubber performance efficiency has a huge impact on the downstream product quality. This paper illustrates the effect of scrubber feed % solids on scrubber performance and alumina distribution on downstream equipment. Further, it was established that scrubber performance efficiency could be defined as the ratio of the adhered particles (-0.15mm) released from scrubber feed during scrubbing operation with respect to the maximum possible release of -0.15mm (%) particles.Keywords: scrubber, adhered particles, feed % solids, efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 1353017 Thermal Stabilisation of Poly(a)•Poly(U) by TMPyP4 and Zn(X)TMPyP4 Derivatives in Aqueous Solutions
Authors: A. Kudrev
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The duplex Poly(A)-Poly(U) denaturation in an aqueous solutions in mixtures with the tetracationic MeTMPyP4 (Me = 2H, Zn(II); TMPyP4 is 5,10,15,20-tetrakis(N-methylpyridinium-4-yl)porphyrin), was investigated by monitoring the changes in the UV-Vis absorbance spectrum with increasing temperatures from 20°С to 70°С (рН 7.0, I=0.15M). The absorbance data matrices were analyzed with a versatile chemometric procedure that provides the melting profile (distribution of species) and the pure spectrum for each chemical species present along the heating experiment. As revealed by the increase of Tm, the duplex structure was stabilized by these porphyrins. The values of stabilization temperature ΔTm in the presence of these porphyrins are relatively large, 1.2-8.4 °C, indicating that the porphyrins contribute differently in stabilizing the duplex Poly(A)-Poly(U) structure. Remarkable is the fact that the porphyrin TMPyP4 was less effective in the stabilization of the duplex structure than the metalloporphyrin Zn(X)TMPyP4 which suggests that metallization play an important role in porphyrin-RNA binding. Molecular Dynamics Simulations has been used to illustrate melting of the duplex dsRNA bound with a porphyrin molecule.Keywords: melting, Poly(A)-Poly(U), TMPyP4, Zn(X)TMPyP4
Procedia PDF Downloads 1443016 Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Realistic Biochar Models with Controlled Microporosity
Authors: Audrey Ngambia, Ondrej Masek, Valentina Erastova
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Biochar is an amorphous carbon-rich material generated from the pyrolysis of biomass with multifarious properties and functionality. Biochar has shown proven applications in the treatment of flue gas and organic and inorganic pollutants in soil and water/wastewater as a result of its multiple surface functional groups and porous structures. These properties have also shown potential in energy storage and carbon capture. The availability of diverse sources of biomass to produce biochar has increased interest in it as a sustainable and environmentally friendly material. The properties and porous structures of biochar vary depending on the type of biomass and high heat treatment temperature (HHT). Biochars produced at HHT between 400°C – 800°C generally have lower H/C and O/C ratios, higher porosities, larger pore sizes and higher surface areas with temperature. While all is known experimentally, there is little knowledge on the porous role structure and functional groups play on processes occurring at the atomistic scale, which are extremely important for the optimization of biochar for application, especially in the adsorption of gases. Atomistic simulations methods have shown the potential to generate such amorphous materials; however, most of the models available are composed of only carbon atoms or graphitic sheets, which are very dense or with simple slit pores, all of which ignore the important role of heteroatoms such as O, N, S and pore morphologies. Hence, developing realistic models that integrate these parameters are important to understand their role in governing adsorption mechanisms that will aid in guiding the design and optimization of biochar materials for target applications. In this work, molecular dynamics simulations in the isobaric ensemble are used to generate realistic biochar models taking into account experimentally determined H/C, O/C, N/C, aromaticity, micropore size range, micropore volumes and true densities of biochars. A pore generation approach was developed using virtual atoms, which is a Lennard-Jones sphere of varying van der Waals radius and softness. Its interaction via a soft-core potential with the biochar matrix allows the creation of pores with rough surfaces while varying the van der Waals radius parameters gives control to the pore-size distribution. We focused on microporosity, creating average pore sizes of 0.5 - 2 nm in diameter and pore volumes in the range of 0.05 – 1 cm3/g, which corresponds to experimental gas adsorption micropore sizes of amorphous porous biochars. Realistic biochar models with surface functionalities, micropore size distribution and pore morphologies were developed, and they could aid in the study of adsorption processes in confined micropores.Keywords: biochar, heteroatoms, micropore size, molecular dynamics simulations, surface functional groups, virtual atoms
Procedia PDF Downloads 643015 Magnetoelectric Coupling in Hetero-Structured Nano-Composite of BST-BLFM Films
Authors: Navneet Dabra, Jasbir S. HUndal
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Hetero-structured nano-composite thin film of Ba0.5Sr0.5TiO3/Bi0.9La0.1Fe0.9Mn0.1O3 (BST/BLFM) has been prepared by chemical solution deposition method with various BST to BLFM thickness ratios. These films have been deposited over on p-type Si (100) substrate. These samples exhibited low leakage current, large grain size and uniform distribution of particles. The maximum remanent polarization (Pr) was achieved in the heterostructures with thickness ratio of 2.65. The dielectric tenability, electric hysteresis (P-E), ME coupling coefficient, magnetic hysteresis (M-H), ferromagnetic exchange interaction and magnetoelectric measurements were carried out. Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy has been employed to investigate the surface morphology of these heterostructured nano-composite films.Keywords: magnetoelectric, Schottky emission, interface coupling, dielectric tenability, electric hysteresis (P-E), ME coupling coefficient, magnetic hysteresis (M-H)
Procedia PDF Downloads 4253014 Layout Design Optimization of Spars under Multiple Load Cases of the High-Aspect-Ratio Wing
Authors: Yu Li, Jingwu He, Yuexi Xiong
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The spar layout will affect the wing’s stiffness characteristics, and irrational spar arrangement will reduce the overall bending and twisting resistance capacity of the wing. In this paper, the active structural stiffness design theory is used to match the stiffness-center axis position and load-cases under the corresponding multiple flight conditions, in order to achieve better stiffness properties of the wing. The combination of active stiffness method and principle of stiffness distribution is proved to be reasonable supplying an initial reference for wing designing. The optimized layout of spars is eventually obtained, and the high-aspect-ratio wing will have better stiffness characteristics.Keywords: active structural stiffness design theory, high-aspect-ratio wing, flight load cases, layout of spars
Procedia PDF Downloads 3133013 Exploring the Impact of Location on Urban and Peri-Urban Farming: A Case Study from Lusaka, Zambia
Authors: Cecilia Elisabeth Fåhraeus
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In 2016, this author conducted a study on agricultural livelihoods in urban and peri-urban low-income settings in Lusaka, Zambia. The overarching aim was to determine the impact of physical space on agricultural activities, with a particular emphasis on geographical distinctions between urban and peri-urban environments. Agricultural activities among the areas’ residents were mapped through questionnaires, interviews and observations, and included variables such as type of activity and product; degree of marketization; inputs; location of production, storage and vending; labour distribution; production constraints, and associated mobility patterns, among others. The study confirmed that spatial idiosyncrasies of urban and peri-urban environments both enabled and constrained agricultural activity, but not always as anticipated. There were also cross-cutting issues on which physical space appeared to have a limited impact.Keywords: agricultural production systems, geography, low-income settlements, Lusaka, peri-urban, urban
Procedia PDF Downloads 3213012 The Nature of the Complicated Fabric Textures: How to Represent in Primary Visual Cortex
Authors: J. L. Liu, L. Wang, B. Zhu, J. Zhou, W. D. Gao
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Fabric textures are very common in our daily life. However, we never explore the representation of fabric textures from neuroscience view. Theoretical studies suggest that primary visual cortex (V1) uses a sparse code to efficiently represent natural images. However, how the simple cells in V1 encode the artificial textures is still a mystery. So, here we will take fabric texture as stimulus to study the response of independent component analysis that is established to model the receptive field of simple cells in V1. Experimental results based on 140 classical fabric images indicate that the receptive fields of simple cells have obvious selectivity in orientation, frequency, and phase when drifting gratings are used to determine their tuning properties. Additionally, the distribution of optimal orientation and frequency shows that the patch size selected from each original fabric image has a significant effect on the frequency selectivity.Keywords: fabric texture, receptive filed, simple cell, spare coding
Procedia PDF Downloads 4643011 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model
Authors: Yuzhi Cai
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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3593010 Electric Field Analysis of XLPE, Cross-Linked Polyethylene Covered Aerial Line and Insulator Lashing
Authors: Jyh-Cherng Gu, Ming-Ta Yang, Dai-Ling Tsai
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Both sparse lashing and dense lashing are applied to secure overhead XLPE (cross-linked polyethylene) covered power lines on ceramic insulators or HDPE polymer insulators. The distribution of electric field in and among the lashing wires, the XLPE power lines and insulators in normal clean condition and when conducting materials such as salt, metal particles, dust, smoke or acidic smog are present is studied in this paper. The ANSYS Maxwell commercial software is used in this study for electric field analysis. Although the simulation analysis is performed assuming ideal conditions due to the constraints of the simulation software, the result may not be the same as in real situation but still be of sufficient practical values.Keywords: electric field intensity, insulator, XLPE covered aerial line, empty
Procedia PDF Downloads 2613009 Improvement of Electric Aircraft Endurance through an Optimal Propeller Design Using Combined BEM, Vortex and CFD Methods
Authors: Jose Daniel Hoyos Giraldo, Jesus Hernan Jimenez Giraldo, Juan Pablo Alvarado Perilla
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Range and endurance are the main limitations of electric aircraft due to the nature of its source of power. The improvement of efficiency on this kind of systems is extremely meaningful to encourage the aircraft operation with less environmental impact. The propeller efficiency highly affects the overall efficiency of the propulsion system; hence its optimization can have an outstanding effect on the aircraft performance. An optimization method is applied to an aircraft propeller in order to maximize its range and endurance by estimating the best combination of geometrical parameters such as diameter and airfoil, chord and pitch distribution for a specific aircraft design at a certain cruise speed, then the rotational speed at which the propeller operates at minimum current consumption is estimated. The optimization is based on the Blade Element Momentum (BEM) method, additionally corrected to account for tip and hub losses, Mach number and rotational effects; furthermore an airfoil lift and drag coefficients approximation is implemented from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations supported by preliminary studies of grid independence and suitability of different turbulence models, to feed the BEM method, with the aim of achieve more reliable results. Additionally, Vortex Theory is employed to find the optimum pitch and chord distribution to achieve a minimum induced loss propeller design. Moreover, the optimization takes into account the well-known brushless motor model, thrust constraints for take-off runway limitations, maximum allowable propeller diameter due to aircraft height and maximum motor power. The BEM-CFD method is validated by comparing its predictions for a known APC propeller with both available experimental tests and APC reported performance curves which are based on Vortex Theory fed with the NASA Transonic Airfoil code, showing a adequate fitting with experimental data even more than reported APC data. Optimal propeller predictions are validated by wind tunnel tests, CFD propeller simulations and a study of how the propeller will perform if it replaces the one of on known aircraft. Some tendency charts relating a wide range of parameters such as diameter, voltage, pitch, rotational speed, current, propeller and electric efficiencies are obtained and discussed. The implementation of CFD tools shows an improvement in the accuracy of BEM predictions. Results also showed how a propeller has higher efficiency peaks when it operates at high rotational speed due to the higher Reynolds at which airfoils present lower drag. On the other hand, the behavior of the current consumption related to the propulsive efficiency shows counterintuitive results, the best range and endurance is not necessary achieved in an efficiency peak.Keywords: BEM, blade design, CFD, electric aircraft, endurance, optimization, range
Procedia PDF Downloads 1033008 Data-Driven Dynamic Overbooking Model for Tour Operators
Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul
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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator
Procedia PDF Downloads 1253007 Numerical Study of Laminar Natural Flow Transitions in Rectangular Cavity
Authors: Sabrina Nouri, Abderahmane Ghezal, Said Abboudi, Pierre Spiteri
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This paper deals with the numerical study of heat and mass transfer of laminar flow transition at low Prandtl numbers. The model includes the two-directional momentum, the energy and mass transfer equations. These equations are discretized by the finite volume method and solved by a self-made simpler like Fortran code. The effect of governing parameters, namely the Lewis and Prandtl numbers, on the transition of the flow and solute distribution is studied for positive and negative thermal and solutal buoyancy forces ratio. Nusselt and Sherwood numbers are derived for of Prandtl [10⁻²-10¹] and Lewis numbers [1-10⁴]. The results show unicell and multi-cell flow. Solute and flow boundary layers appear for low Prandtl number.Keywords: natural convection, low Prandtl number, heat and mass transfer, finite volume method
Procedia PDF Downloads 1933006 Thermal Postbuckling of First Order Shear Deformable Functionally Graded Plates
Authors: Merbouha Barka, K. H. Benrahou, A. Fakrar, A. Tounsi, E. A. Adda Bedia
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This paper presents an analytical investigation on the buckling and postbuckling behaviors of thick functionally graded plates subjected to thermal load .Material properties are assumed to be temperature dependent, and graded in the thickness direction according to a simple power law distribution in terms of the volume fractions of constituents. The formulations are based on first order shear deformation plate theory taking into account Von Karman nonlinearity and initial geometrical imperfection. By applying Galerkin method, closed-form relations of postbuckling equilibrium paths for simply supported plates are determined. Analysis is carried out to show the effects of material and geometrical properties, in-plane boundary restraint, and imperfection on the buckling and postbuckling loading capacity of the plates.Keywords: functionally graded materials, postbuckling, first order shear deformation theory, imperfection
Procedia PDF Downloads 3083005 Mean-Field Type Modeling of Non-Local Congestion in Pedestrian Crowd Dynamics
Authors: Alexander Aurell
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One of the latest trends in the modeling of human crowds is the mean-field game approach. In the mean-field game approach, the motion of a human crowd is described by a nonstandard stochastic optimal control problem. It is nonstandard since congestion is considered, introduced through a dependence in the performance functional on the distribution of the crowd. This study extends the class of mean-field pedestrian crowd models to allow for non-local congestion and arbitrary, but finitely, many interacting crowds. The new congestion feature grants pedestrians a 'personal space' where crowding is undesirable. The model is treated as a mean-field type game which is derived from a particle picture. This, in contrast to a mean-field game, better describes a situation where the crowd can be controlled by a central planner. The latter is suitable for decentralized situations. Solutions to the mean-field type game are characterized via a Pontryagin-type Maximum Principle.Keywords: congestion, crowd dynamics, interacting populations, mean-field approximation, optimal control
Procedia PDF Downloads 4373004 Key Affecting Factors for Social Sustainability through Urban Green Space Planning
Authors: Raziyeh Teimouri, Sadasivam Karuppannan, Alpana Sivam, Ning Gu
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Urban Green Space (UGS) is one of the most critical components of urban systems to create sustainable cities. UGS has valuable social benefits that closely correlate with people's life quality. Studying social sustainability factors that can be achieved by green spaces is required for optimal UGS planning to increase urban social sustainability. This paper aims to identify key factors that enhance urban social sustainability through UGS planning. To reach the goal of the study international experts’ survey has been conducted. According to the results of the survey analysis, factors of proper distribution, links to public transportation, walkable access, sense of place, social interactions, public education, safety and security, walkability and cyclability, physical activity and recreational facilities, suitability for all ages, disabled people, women, and children are among the key factors that should consider in UGS planning programs to promote urban social sustainability.Keywords: UGS, planning, social sustainability, key factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 673003 Enhanced Dimensional Stability of Rigid PVC Foams Using Glass Fibers
Authors: Nidal H. Abu-Zahra, Murtatha M. Jamel, Parisa Khoshnoud, Subhashini Gunashekar
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Two types of glass fibers having different lengths (1/16" and 1/32") were added into rigid PVC foams to enhance the dimensional stability of extruded rigid Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) foam at different concentrations (0-20 phr) using a single screw profile extruder. PVC foam-glass fiber composites (PVC-GF) were characterized for their dimensional stability, structural, thermal, and mechanical properties. Experimental results show that the dimensional stability, heat resistance, and storage modulus were enhanced without compromising the tensile and flexural strengths of the composites. Overall, foam composites which were prepared with longer glass fibers exhibit better mechanical and thermal properties than those prepared with shorter glass fibers due to higher interlocking between the fibers and the foam cells, which result in better load distribution in the matrix.Keywords: polyvinyl chloride, PVC foam, PVC composites, polymer composites, glass fiber composites, reinforced polymers
Procedia PDF Downloads 3893002 Inverted Diameter-Limit Thinning: A Promising Alternative for Mixed Populus tremuloides Stands Management
Authors: Ablo Paul Igor Hounzandji, Benoit Lafleur, Annie DesRochers
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Introduction: Populus tremuloides [Michx] regenerates rapidly and abundantly by root suckering after harvest, creating stands with interconnected stems. Pre-commercial thinning can be used to concentrate growth on fewer stems to reach merchantability faster than un-thinned stands. However, conventional thinning methods are typically designed to reach even spacing between residual stems (1,100 stem ha⁻¹, evenly distributed), which can lead to treated stands consisting of weaker/smaller stems compared to the original stands. Considering the nature of P. tremuloides's regeneration, with large underground biomass of interconnected roots, aiming to keep the most vigorous and largest stems, regardless of their spatial distribution, inverted diameter-limit thinning could be more beneficial to post-thinning stand productivity because it would reduce the imbalance between roots and leaf area caused by thinning. Aims: This study aimed to compare stand and stem productivity of P. tremuloides stands thinned with a conventional thinning treatment (CT; 1,100 stem ha⁻¹, evenly distributed), two levels of inverted diameter-limit thinning (DL1 and DL2, keeping the largest 1100 or 2200 stems ha⁻¹, respectively, regardless of their spatial distribution) and a control unthinned treatment. Because DL treatments can create substantial or frequent gaps in the thinned stands, we also aimed to evaluate the potential of this treatment to recreate mixed conifer-broadleaf stands by fill-planting Picea glauca seedlings. Methods: Three replicate 21 year-old sucker-regenerated aspen stands were thinned in 2010 according to four treatments: CT, DL1, DL2, and un-thinned control. Picea glauca seedlings were underplanted in gaps created by the DL1 and DL2 treatments. Stand productivity per hectare, stem quality (diameter and height, volume stem⁻¹) and survival and height growth of fill-planted P. glauca seedlings were measured 8 year post-treatments. Results: Productivity, volume, diameter, and height were better in the treated stands (CT, DL1, and DL2) than in the un-thinned control. Productivity of CT and DL1 stands was similar 4.8 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. At the tree level, diameter and height of the trees in the DL1 treatment were 5% greater than those in the CT treatment. The average volume of trees in the DL1 treatment was 11% higher than the CT treatment. Survival after 8 years of fill planted P. glauca seedlings was 2% greater in the DL1 than in the DL2 treatment. DL1 treatment also produced taller seedlings (+20 cm). Discussion: Results showed that DL treatments were effective in producing post-thinned stands with larger stems without affecting stand productivity. In addition, we showed that these treatments were suitable to introduce slower growing conifer seedlings such as Picea glauca in order to re-create or maintain mixed stands despite the aggressive nature of P. tremuloides sucker regeneration.Keywords: Aspen, inverted diameter-limit, mixed forest, populus tremuloides, silviculture, thinning
Procedia PDF Downloads 1383001 Identification of Bayesian Network with Convolutional Neural Network
Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Wafa Karouche, Joseph Rynkiewicz
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In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion.Keywords: Bayesian network, structure learning, optimal search, convolutional neural network, causal inference
Procedia PDF Downloads 1633000 Thermodynamics of the Local Hadley Circulation Over Central Africa
Authors: Landry Tchambou Tchouongsi, Appolinaire Derbetini Vondou
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This study describes the local Hadley circulation (HC) during the December-February (DJF) and June-August (JJA) seasons, respectively, in Central Africa (CA) from the divergent component of the mean meridional wind and also from a new method called the variation of the ψ vector. Historical data from the ERA5 reanalysis for the period 1983 to 2013 were used. The results show that the maximum of the upward branch of the local Hadley circulation in the DJF and JJA seasons is located under the Congo Basin (CB). However, seasonal and horizontal variations in the mean temperature gradient and thermodynamic properties are largely associated with the distribution of convection and large-scale upward motion. Thus, temperatures beneath the CB show a slight variation between the DJF and JJA seasons. Moreover, energy transport of the moist static energy (MSE) adequately captures the mean flow component of the HC over the tropics. By the way, the divergence under the CB is enhanced by the presence of the low pressure of western Cameroon and the contribution of the warm and dry air currents coming from the Sahara.Keywords: Circulation, reanalysis, thermodynamic, local Hadley.
Procedia PDF Downloads 852999 Free Vibration and Buckling of Rectangular Plates under Nonuniform In-Plane Edge Shear Loads
Authors: T. H. Young, Y. J. Tsai
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A method for determining the stress distribution of a rectangular plate subjected to two pairs of arbitrarily distributed in-plane edge shear loads is proposed, and the free vibration and buckling of such a rectangular plate are investigated in this work. The method utilizes two stress functions to synthesize the stress-resultant field of the plate with each of the stress functions satisfying the biharmonic compatibility equation. The sum of stress-resultant fields due to these two stress functions satisfies the boundary conditions at the edges of the plate, from which these two stress functions are determined. Then, the free vibration and buckling of the rectangular plate are investigated by the Galerkin method. Numerical results obtained by this work are compared with those appeared in the literature, and good agreements are observed.Keywords: stress analysis, free vibration, plate buckling, nonuniform in-plane edge shear
Procedia PDF Downloads 1522998 The Role of Mobile Applications on Consumerism Case Study: Snappfood Application
Authors: Vajihe Fasihi
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With the advancement of technology and the expansion of the Internet, a significant change in lifestyle and consumption can be seen in societies. The increasing number of mobile applications (such as SnappFood) has expanded the scope of using apps for wider access to services to citizens and meets the needs of a large number of citizens in the shortest time and with reasonable quality. First, this article seeks to understand the concept and function of the Internet distribution network on the Iranian society, which was investigated in a smaller sample (students of the Faculty of Social Sciences of the Tehran university ) and uses the semi-structured interview method, and then explores the concept of consumerism. The main issue of this research is the effect of mobile apps, especially SnappFood, on increasing consumption and the difference between real needs and false needs among consumers. The findings of this research show that the use of the mentioned program has been effective in increasing the false needs of the sample community and has led to the phenomenon of consumerism.Keywords: consumerism economics, false needs, mobile applications, reel needs
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