Search results for: conjugate gradient coefficient
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2976

Search results for: conjugate gradient coefficient

1056 Psycho-Social Issues: Drug Use and Abuse as a Social Problem among Secondary School Youths in Urban Centres of Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: Ode Kenneth Ogbu

Abstract:

This study was designed as a survey to investigate the incidence of use and abuse of drug as a social problem among the Nigeria youths in the secondary schools in urban centres of Benue state. 500 SS 3 and fresh secondary school graduates in remedial science class of Benue State University Makurdi with mean age of 16.8 were randomly sampled for the study. An instrument called drug use and abuse perception questionnaire (DAPQ) with a reliability coefficient of 74 were administered to the students. Only 337 copies of the questionnaire were properly completed and returned which reduced the sample size of 337. The data were subjected to factor analysis. X2 statistic and frequency distribution using split half method. The result of the analysis showed that: the DAPQ yield seven baseline factors responsible for drug use and abuse; there was appreciable evidence that the study subjects used drugs (42.1%); alcohol topped the list of the drugs consumed; most students use their pocket money to buy drugs; drugs were purchased from unconventional, hidden places and 13 out of the 20 items of DAPQ were perceived as significant factors in drug use and abuse. The paper recommends proper intervention of government, parents and NGO’S among students to reduce cases of drug abuse.

Keywords: drug abuse, psychology, psychiatry, students

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1055 Continuous Differential Evolution Based Parameter Estimation Framework for Signal Models

Authors: Ammara Mehmood, Aneela Zameer, Muhammad Asif Zahoor Raja, Muhammad Faisal Fateh

Abstract:

In this work, the strength of bio-inspired computational intelligence based technique is exploited for parameter estimation for the periodic signals using Continuous Differential Evolution (CDE) by defining an error function in the mean square sense. Multidimensional and nonlinear nature of the problem emerging in sinusoidal signal models along with noise makes it a challenging optimization task, which is dealt with robustness and effectiveness of CDE to ensure convergence and avoid trapping in local minima. In the proposed scheme of Continuous Differential Evolution based Signal Parameter Estimation (CDESPE), unknown adjustable weights of the signal system identification model are optimized utilizing CDE algorithm. The performance of CDESPE model is validated through statistics based various performance indices on a sufficiently large number of runs in terms of estimation error, mean squared error and Thiel’s inequality coefficient. Efficacy of CDESPE is examined by comparison with the actual parameters of the system, Genetic Algorithm based outcomes and from various deterministic approaches at different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) levels.

Keywords: parameter estimation, bio-inspired computing, continuous differential evolution (CDE), periodic signals

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1054 Study of the Transport of ²²⁶Ra Colloidal in Mining Context Using a Multi-Disciplinary Approach

Authors: Marine Reymond, Michael Descostes, Marie Muguet, Clemence Besancon, Martine Leermakers, Catherine Beaucaire, Sophie Billon, Patricia Patrier

Abstract:

²²⁶Ra is one of the radionuclides resulting from the disintegration of ²³⁸U. Due to its half-life (1600 y) and its high specific activity (3.7 x 1010 Bq/g), ²²⁶Ra is found at the ultra-trace level in the natural environment (usually below 1 Bq/L, i.e. 10-13 mol/L). Because of its decay in ²²²Rn, a radioactive gas with a shorter half-life (3.8 days) which is difficult to control and dangerous for humans when inhaled, ²²⁶Ra is subject to a dedicated monitoring in surface waters especially in the context of uranium mining. In natural waters, radionuclides occur in dissolved, colloidal or particular forms. Due to the size of colloids, generally ranging between 1 nm and 1 µm and their high specific surface areas, the colloidal fraction could be involved in the transport of trace elements, including radionuclides in the environment. The colloidal fraction is not always easy to determine and few existing studies focus on ²²⁶Ra. In the present study, a complete multidisciplinary approach is proposed to assess the colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra. It includes water sampling by conventional filtration (0.2µm) and the innovative Diffusive Gradient in Thin Films technique to measure the dissolved fraction (<10nm), from which the colloidal fraction could be estimated. Suspended matter in these waters were also sampled and characterized mineralogically by X-Ray Diffraction, infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. All of these data, which were acquired on a rehabilitated former uranium mine, allowed to build a geochemical model using the geochemical calculation code PhreeqC to describe, as accurately as possible, the colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra. Colloidal transport of ²²⁶Ra was found, for some of the sampling points, to account for up to 95% of the total ²²⁶Ra measured in water. Mineralogical characterization and associated geochemical modelling highlight the role of barite, a barium sulfate mineral well known to trap ²²⁶Ra into its structure. Barite was shown to be responsible for the colloidal ²²⁶Ra fraction despite the presence of kaolinite and ferrihydrite, which are also known to retain ²²⁶Ra by sorption.

Keywords: colloids, mining context, radium, transport

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1053 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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1052 Developing of Attitude towards Using Complementary Treatments Scale in Turkey

Authors: Ayşegül Bilge, Merve Uğuryol, Şeyda Dülgerler, Mustafa Yıldız

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to prove the Attitude towards Using Complementary Treatments Scale reliability and validity. The research is a methodological type of research that has been planned to determine the validity and reliability of the Attitude towards Using Complementary Treatments Scale. The scale has been developed by the researchers. In the scale, there are 23 questions including complementary and modern therapies individuals apply when they have health problems 4-item Likert-type evaluation has been carried out in preparing the questionnaire. High score obtained from the scale indicates a positive attitude towards complementary therapies. In the course of validity assessment of the scale, expert opinion has been received, and the content validity of the scale has been determined by using Kendall coefficient correlation test (Wa=0.200, p = 0.460). In the course of the reliability assessment of the scale, total score correlations of 23 materials have been examined, and those under 0.20 correlation limit has been removed from the scale correlation. As a result, the scale was left to be 13 items. In the internal consistency tests of the analyses, Cronbach's alpha value has been found to be 0.79. As a result, of the validity analyses of the Attitude towards Using Complementary Treatments Scale, the content and language validity analyses has been found to be at the expected level. It has been determined to be a highly reliable scale as the result of the reliability analyses. In conclusion, Attitude towards Using Complementary Treatments Scale is a valid and reliable scale.

Keywords: alternative health care, complementary treatment, instrument development, nursing practice

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1051 The Effect of Deficit Financing on Macro-Economic Variables in Nigeria (1970-2013)

Authors: Ezeoke Callistus Obiora, Ezeoke Nneka Angela

Abstract:

The study investigated the effect of deficit financing on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The specific objectives included to find out the relationship between deficit financing and GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate and private investment respectively on a time series covering a period of 44 years (1970 – 2013). The Ordinary Least Square multiple regression produced statistics for the coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test used for the interpretation of the study. The findings revealed that Deficit financing has significant positive effect on GDP and exchange rate. Again, deficit financing has a positive and insignificant relationship inflation, money supply and investment. Only interest rate recorded negative yet insignificant relationship with deficit financing. The implications of the findings are that deficit financing can be a veritable tool for boosting economic development in Nigeria, but the influential positively rising exchange rate implies that deficit financing devalues the Naira exchange rate to other currencies indicating that deficit financing can affect Nigerians competitive advantage at the world market. Thus, the study concludes that deficit financing has not encouraged economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: deficit financing, money supply, exchange rate, inflation, GDP, investment, Nigeria

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1050 Asset Pricing Model: A Quality Paradigm

Authors: Urmi Khatri

Abstract:

Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) draws a direct relationship between the risk and the expected rate of return. There was a criticism on the beta and the assumptions of CAPM, as they are not applicable in the real world. Fama French Three Factor Model and Fama French Five Factor Model have given different factors, which have an impact on the return of any asset like size, value, investment and profitability. This study proposes to see Capital Asset pricing Model through the lenses of the quality aspect. In the study, the six factors are studied. The Fama French Five Factor Model and addition of the quality dimension are studied. Here, Graham’s seven quality and quantity criteria are measured to determine the score of the sample firms. Thus, this study tries to check the model fit. The beta coefficient of the quality dimension and the R square value is seen to determine validity of the proposed model. The sample is drawn from the firms listed on Indian Stock Exchange (BSE). For the study, only nonfinancial firms are been selected. The time period of the study is from January 1999 to December 2019. Hence, the primary objective of the study is to check how robust the model becomes after giving the quality dimension to the capital asset pricing model in addition to the size, value, profitability and investment.

Keywords: asset pricing model, CAPM, Graham’s score, G-score, multifactor model, quality

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1049 Modeling Pan Evaporation Using Intelligent Methods of ANN, LSSVM and Tree Model M5 (Case Study: Shahroud and Mayamey Stations)

Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

Abstract:

The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

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1048 Heat Transfer from a Cylinder in Cross-Flow of Single and Multiphase Flows

Authors: F. A. Hamad, S. He

Abstract:

In this paper, the average heat transfer characteristics for a cross flow cylinder of 16 mm diameter in a vertical pipe has been studied for single-phase flow (water/oil) and multicomponent (non-boiling) flow (water-air, water-oil, oil-air and water-oil-air). The cylinder is uniformly heated by electrical heater placed at the centre of the element. The results show that the values of average heat transfer coefficients for water are around four times the values for oil flow. Introducing air as a second phase with water has very little effect on heat transfer rate, while the heat transfer increased by 70% in case of oil. For water–oil flow, the heat transfer coefficient values are reflecting the percentage of water up to 50%, but increasing the water more than 50% leads to a sharp increase in the heat transfer coefficients to become close to the values of pure water. The enhancement of heat transfer by mixing two phases may be attributed to the changes in flow structure near to cylinder surface which lead to thinner boundary layer and higher turbulence. For three-phase flow, the heat transfer coefficients for all cases fall within the limit of single-phase flow of water and oil and are very close to pure water values. The net effect of the turbulence augmentation due to the introduction of air and the attenuation due to the introduction of oil leads to a thinner boundary layer of oil over the cylinder surface covered by a mixture of water and air bubbles.

Keywords: circular cylinder, cross flow, hear transfer, multicomponent multiphase flow

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1047 Profitability Assessment of Granite Aggregate Production and the Development of a Profit Assessment Model

Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

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1046 A Case Study of Control of Blast-Induced Ground Vibration on Adjacent Structures

Authors: H. Mahdavinezhad, M. Labbaf, H. R. Tavakoli

Abstract:

In recent decades, the study and control of the destructive effects of explosive vibration in construction projects has received more attention, and several experimental equations in the field of vibration prediction as well as allowable vibration limit for various structures are presented. Researchers have developed a number of experimental equations to estimate the peak particle velocity (PPV), in which the experimental constants must be obtained at the site of the explosion by fitting the data from experimental explosions. In this study, the most important of these equations was evaluated for strong massive conglomerates around Dez Dam by collecting data on explosions, including 30 particle velocities, 27 displacements, 27 vibration frequencies and 27 acceleration of earth vibration at different distances; they were recorded in the form of two types of detonation systems, NUNEL and electric. Analysis showed that the data from the explosion had the best correlation with the cube root of the explosive, R2=0.8636, but overall the correlation coefficients are not much different. To estimate the vibration in this project, data regression was performed in the other formats, which resulted in the presentation of new equation with R2=0.904 correlation coefficient. Finally according to the importance of the studied structures in order to ensure maximum non damage to adjacent structures for each diagram, a range of application was defined so that for distances 0 to 70 meters from blast site, exponent n=0.33 and for distances more than 70 m, n =0.66 was suggested.

Keywords: blasting, blast-induced vibration, empirical equations, PPV, tunnel

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1045 Analytical Model to Predict the Shear Capacity of Reinforced Concrete Beams Externally Strengthened with CFRP Composites Conditions

Authors: Rajai Al-Rousan

Abstract:

This paper presents a proposed analytical model for predicting the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with CFRP composites as external reinforcement. The proposed analytical model can predict the shear contribution of CFRP composites of RC beams with an acceptable coefficient of correlation with the tested results. Based on the comparison of the proposed model with the published well-known models (ACI model, Triantafillou model, and Colotti model), the ACI model had a wider range of 0.16 to 10.08 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears at failure. Also, an acceptable range of 0.27 to 2.78 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears by the Triantafillou model. Finally, the best prediction (the ratio between the tested and predicted ones) of the ultimate shear capacity is observed by using Colotti model with a range of 0.20 to 1.78. Thus, the contribution of the CFRP composites as external reinforcement can be predicted with high accuracy by using the proposed analytical model.

Keywords: predicting, shear capacity, reinforced concrete, beams, strengthened, externally, CFRP composites

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1044 Investigation of the Thermal Flow inside the Catalytic Combustor for Lean CH4-Air Mixture on a Platinum Catalyst with H2 Addition

Authors: Kumaresh Selvakumar, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

In order to elaborate the main idea of investigating the flow physics inside the catalytic combustor, the characteristics of the catalytic surface reactions are analyzed by employing the CHEMKIN methodology with detailed gas and surface chemistries. The presence of a catalyst inside an engine enables complete combustion at lower temperatures which promotes desired chemical reactions. A single channel from the honeycomb monolith catalytic combustor is preferred to analyze the gas and surface reactions in the catalyst bed considering the fact that every channel in the honeycomb monolith behaves in similar fashion. The simplified approach with single catalyst channel using plug flow reactor can be used to predict the flow behavior inside the catalytic combustor. The hydrogen addition to the combustion reactants offers a way to light-off catalytic combustion of methane on platinum catalyst and aids to reduce the surface ignition temperature. Indeed, the hydrogen adsorption is higher on the uncovered Pt(s) surface sites because the sticking coefficient of hydrogen is larger than that of methane. The location of flame position in the catalyst bed is validated by igniting the methane fuel with the presence of hydrogen for corresponding multistep surface reactions.

Keywords: catalytic combustor, hydrogen adsorption, plug flow reactor, surface ignition temperature

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1043 Aerodynamic Prediction and Performance Analysis for Mars Science Laboratory Entry Vehicle

Authors: Tang Wei, Yang Xiaofeng, Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia

Abstract:

Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient, lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method. Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic configuration des0ign and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry capsule.

Keywords: Mars entry capsule, static aerodynamics, computational fluid dynamics, hypersonic

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1042 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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1041 Impact of Dynamic Capabilities on Knowledge Management Processes

Authors: Farzad Yavari, Fereydoun Ohadi

Abstract:

Today, with the development and growth of technology and extreme environmental changes, organizations need to identify opportunities and create creativity and innovation in order to be able to maintain or improve their position in competition with others. In this regard, it is necessary that the resources and assets of the organization are coordinated and reviewed in accordance with the orientation of the strategy. One of the competitive advantages of the present age is knowledge management, which is to equip the organization with the knowledge of the day and disseminate among employees and use it in the development of products and services. Therefore, in the forthcoming research, the impact of dynamic capabilities components (sense, seize, and reconfiguration) has been investigated on knowledge management processes (acquisition, integration and knowledge utilization) in the MAPNA Engineering and Construction Company using a field survey and applied research method. For this purpose, a questionnaire was filled out in the form of 15 questions for dynamic components and 15 questions for measuring knowledge management components and distributed among 46 employees of the knowledge management organization. Validity of the questionnaire was evaluated through content validity and its reliability with Cronbach's coefficient. Pearson correlation test and structural equation technique were used to analyze the data. The results of the research indicate a positive significant correlation between the components of dynamic capabilities and knowledge management.

Keywords: dynamic capabilities, knowledge management, sense capability, seize capability, reconfigurable capability, knowledge acquisition, knowledge integrity, knowledge utilization

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1040 Features of Calculating Structures for Frequent Weak Earthquakes

Authors: M. S. Belashov, A. V. Benin, Lin Hong, Sh. Sh. Nazarova, O. B. Sabirova, A. M. Uzdin, Lin Hong

Abstract:

The features of calculating structures for the action of weak earthquakes are analyzed. Earthquakes with a recurrence of 30 years and 50 years are considered. In the first case, the structure is to operate normally without damage after the earthquake. In the second case, damages are allowed that do not affect the possibility of the structure operation. Three issues are emphasized: setting elastic and damping characteristics of reinforced concrete, formalization of limit states, and combinations of loads. The dependence of damping on the reinforcement coefficient is estimated. When evaluating limit states, in addition to calculations for crack resistance and strength, a human factor, i.e., the possibility of panic among people, was considered. To avoid it, it is proposed to limit a floor-by-floor speed level in certain octave ranges. Proposals have been developed for estimating the coefficients of the combination of various loads with the seismic one. As an example, coefficients of combinations of seismic and ice loads are estimated. It is shown that for strong actions, the combination coefficients for different regions turn out to be close, while for weak actions, they may differ.

Keywords: weak earthquake, frequent earthquake, damage, limit state, reinforcement, crack resistance, strength resistance, a floor-by-floor velocity, combination coefficients

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1039 Anagliptin: A Japanese Made Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitor That Naturally Lowers LDL-Cholesterol in Type 2 Diabetes

Authors: C. Iitake, K. Iitake

Abstract:

Background and Aims: The number of diabetic patients based on obesity is increasing drastically in Asia. Since most patients have multiple complications, if one medicine can treat those at the same time, it would contribute to financial savings and patients’ compliance. A Japanese-made DPP-4 inhibitor, Anagliptin is only sold in Japan and South Korea. It is said to have its unique aspect of lowering LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels together with lowering blood glucose. We have assessed 63 patients in our faculty to investigate this fact clinically and statistically. Method: Patients with type 2 diabetes who has been treated with Anagliptin for the first time was investigated changes in HbA1c, fasting and random blood glucose and LDL-C levels from the baseline at 1 month, 6 months and 1 year. Results: 29 patients (46.1%) were given DPP-4 inhibitors for the first time (original group), and 34 patients (53.9%) were using other DPP-4 inhibitors before Anagliptin (exchanged group). The change in HbA1c and fasting glucose from the baseline were -2.0% (P < 0.001) and -38.3mg/dl (P < 0.01) respectively with original group, -0.5% (P < 0.01) and -29.4mg/dl (P < 0.01) respectively with exchanged group. 23 patients (36.5%) were using statins or fibrates and 28 patients (44.4%) were using none, and its LDL-C change were -8.1mg/dl (P = 0.2582) and -10.1mg/dl(P < 0.05) respectively. 16 patients(25%) with LDL-C level ≥ 140mg/dl, change were -21.7mg/dl(P < 0.05). LDL-C change did not have a correlation coefficient (=-0.03238) with change in HbA1c and was not affected by other diabetic drugs. Conclusion: These findings indicate that Anagliptin is a potential treatment option for type 2 diabetes complicated by hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: DPP-4 inhibitors, anagliptin, LDL-cholesterol, type 2 diabetes

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1038 The Impact of the Interest Rates on Investments in the Context of Financial Crisis

Authors: Joanna Stawska

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments

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1037 Distribution of Maximum Loss of Fractional Brownian Motion with Drift

Authors: Ceren Vardar Acar, Mine Caglar

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In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter H>1/2. The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, 〖Y_t=Y_0 e^((r+μ)t+σB)〗_t^H, 0≤t≤T where Y_0 is the initial value, r is constant interest rate, μ is constant drift and σ is constant diffusion coefficient of fBm, which is denoted by B_t^H where t≥0. Black-Scholes model can be constructed with some Markov processes such as Brownian motion. The advantage of modeling with fBm to Markov processes is its capability of exposing the dependence between returns. The real life data for a volatile asset display long-range dependence property. For this reason, using fBm is a more realistic model compared to Markov processes. Investors would be interested in any kind of information on the risk in order to manage it or hedge it. The maximum possible loss is one way to measure highest possible risk. Therefore, it is an important variable for investors. In our study, we give some theoretical bounds on the distribution of maximum possible loss of fBm. We provide both asymptotical and strong estimates for the tail probability of maximum loss of standard fBm and fBm with drift and diffusion coefficients. In the investment point of view, these results explain, how large values of possible loss behave and its bounds.

Keywords: maximum drawdown, maximum loss, fractional brownian motion, large deviation, Gaussian process

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1036 Investigating the Effects of Psychological and Socio-Cultural Factors on the Tendency of Villagers to Use E-Banking Services: Case Study of Agricultural Bank Branches in Ilam

Authors: Nahid Ehsani, Amir Hossein Rezvanfar

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to investigate psychological and socio-cultural factors effective on the tendency of the villagers to use e-banking services. The current paper is an applied study considering its objectives. The main data gathering tool in the current study is a made questionnaire which is designed and executed based on the conceptual background of the subject matter and the objectives and hypotheses of the study. The statistical population of this study includes all the customers of rural branches of Agricultural Bank in Ilam Province (N=82885). Among these 120 participants were chosen through sample size determination formula and they were studied using stratified random sampling method. In the analytical statistics level the results obtained from calculating Spearman’s Correlative Coefficient showed that socio-cultural and psychological factors had a significant impact of the extent of the tendency of the villagers to use e-banking services of the Agricultural Bank at the 99% level. Furthermore, stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that both sets of psychological factors as well as socio-economic factors were able to explain 50 percent of the variance of the independent variable; namely the tendency of villagers to use e-banking services.

Keywords: e-banking, agricultural bank, tendency, socio-economic factors, psychological factors

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1035 Modeling of Tool Flank Wear in Finish Hard Turning of AISI D2 Using Genetic Programming

Authors: V. Pourmostaghimi, M. Zadshakoyan

Abstract:

Efficiency and productivity of the finish hard turning can be enhanced impressively by utilizing accurate predictive models for cutting tool wear. However, the ability of genetic programming in presenting an accurate analytical model is a notable characteristic which makes it more applicable than other predictive modeling methods. In this paper, the genetic equation for modeling of tool flank wear is developed with the use of the experimentally measured flank wear values and genetic programming during finish turning of hardened AISI D2. Series of tests were conducted over a range of cutting parameters and the values of tool flank wear were measured. On the basis of obtained results, genetic model presenting connection between cutting parameters and tool flank wear were extracted. The accuracy of the genetically obtained model was assessed by using two statistical measures, which were root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). Evaluation results revealed that presented genetic model predicted flank wear over the study area accurately (R² = 0.9902 and RMSE = 0.0102). These results allow concluding that the proposed genetic equation corresponds well with experimental data and can be implemented in real industrial applications.

Keywords: cutting parameters, flank wear, genetic programming, hard turning

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1034 Spatial REE Geochemical Modeling at Lake Acıgöl, Denizli, Turkey: Analytical Approaches on Spatial Interpolation and Spatial Correlation

Authors: M. Budakoglu, M. Karaman, A. Abdelnasser, M. Kumral

Abstract:

The spatial interpolation and spatial correlation of the rare earth elements (REE) of lake surface sediments of Lake Acıgöl and its surrounding lithological units is carried out by using GIS techniques like Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques. IDW technique which makes the spatial interpolation shows that the lithological units like Hayrettin Formation at north of Lake Acigol have high REE contents than lake sediments as well as ∑LREE and ∑HREE contents. However, Eu/Eu* values (based on chondrite-normalized REE pattern) show high value in some lake surface sediments than in lithological units and that refers to negative Eu-anomaly. Also, the spatial interpolation of the V/Cr ratio indicated that Acıgöl lithological units and lake sediments deposited in in oxic and dysoxic conditions. But, the spatial correlation is carried out by GWR technique. This technique shows high spatial correlation coefficient between ∑LREE and ∑HREE which is higher in the lithological units (Hayrettin Formation and Cameli Formation) than in the other lithological units and lake surface sediments. Also, the matching between REEs and Sc and Al refers to REE abundances of Lake Acıgöl sediments weathered from local bedrock around the lake.

Keywords: spatial geochemical modeling, IDW, GWR techniques, REE, lake sediments, Lake Acıgöl, Turkey

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1033 Design of Tube Expanders with Groove Shapes to Reduce Deformation of Tube Inner Grooves in Copper Tube Expansion

Authors: I. Sin, H. Kim, S. Park

Abstract:

Fin-tube heat exchangers have grooves inside tubes to improve heat exchange performance. However, during the tube expansion process, heat exchange efficiency is decreased due to large deformation of tube inner grooves. Therefore, the objective of this study is to design a tube expander with groove shapes on its outer surface to minimize deformation of the inner grooves in copper tube expansion for fin-tube heat exchangers. In order to achieve this goal, first, we have tried to calculate tube inner groove deformation by the currently used tube expander without groove shapes on its surface. The tube inner groove deformation was acquired by elastoplastic finite element analysis from the boundary conditions with one tube end fixed and friction between the tube and tube expander (friction coefficient: 0.15). The tube expansion process was simulated by inserting the tube expander into the tube with a speed of 90 mm/s. The analysis results showed that tube inner groove heights were decreased by approximately 8 % from 0.15 mm to 0.138 mm with stress concentrations observed at the groove end, consistent with experimental results. Based on the current results, we are trying to design a novel shape of the tube expander with grooves to further reduce deformation tube inner grooves in copper tube expansion. For this, we will select major design variables of tube expander groove shapes by conducting sensitivity analysis and then optimize the design variables using the Taguchi method.

Keywords: tube expansion, tube expander, heat exchanger, finite element

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1032 Use of Protection Motivation Theory to Assess Preventive Behaviors of COVID-19

Authors: Maryam Khazaee-Pool, Tahereh Pashaei, Koen Ponnet

Abstract:

Background: The global prevalence and morbidity of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are high. Preventive behaviors are proven to reduce the damage caused by the disease. There is a paucity of information on determinants of preventive behaviors in response to COVID-19 in Mazandaran province, north of Iran. So, we aimed to evaluate the protection motivation theory (PMT) in promoting preventive behaviors of COVID-19 in Mazandaran province. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, 1220 individuals participated. They were selected via social networks using convenience sampling in 2020. Data were collected online using a demographic questionnaire and a valid and reliable scale based on PMT. Data analysis was done using the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression in SPSS V24. Result: The mean age of the participants was 39.34±8.74 years. The regression model showed perceived threat (ß =0.033, P =0.007), perceived costs (ß=0.039, P=0.045), perceived self-efficacy (ß =0.116, P>0.001), and perceived fear (ß=0.131, P>0.001) as the significant predictors of COVID-19 preventive behaviors. This model accounted for 78% of the variance in these behaviors. Conclusion: According to constructs of the PMT associated with protection against COVID-19, educational programs and health promotion based on the theory and benefiting from social networks could be helpful in increasing the motivation of people towards protective behaviors against COVID-19.

Keywords: questionnaire development, validation, intention, prevention, covid-19

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1031 Combination Rule for Homonuclear Dipole Dispersion Coefficients

Authors: Giorgio Visentin, Inna S. Kalinina, Alexei A. Buchachenko

Abstract:

In the ambit of intermolecular interactions, a combination rule is defined as a relation linking a potential parameter for the interaction of two unlike species with the same parameters for interaction pairs of like species. Some of their most exemplificative applications cover the construction of molecular dynamics force fields and dispersion-corrected density functionals. Here, an extended combination rule is proposed, relating the dipole-dipole dispersion coefficients for the interaction of like target species to the same coefficients for the interaction of the target and a set of partner species. The rule can be devised in two different ways, either by uniform discretization of the Casimir-Polder integral on a Gauss-Legendre quadrature or by relating the dynamic polarizabilities of the target and the partner species. Both methods return the same system of linear equations, which requires the knowledge of the dispersion coefficients for interaction between the partner species to be solved. The test examples show a high accuracy for dispersion coefficients (better than 1% in the pristine test for the interaction of Yb atom with rare gases and alkaline-earth metal atoms). In contrast, the rule does not ensure correct monotonic behavior of the dynamic polarizability of the target species. Acknowledgment: The work is supported by Russian Science Foundation grant # 17-13-01466.

Keywords: combination rule, dipole-dipole dispersion coefficient, Casimir-Polder integral, Gauss-Legendre quadrature

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1030 Histamine Skin Reactivity Increased with Body Mass Index in Korean Children

Authors: Jeong Hong Kim, Ju Wan Kang

Abstract:

Objective: Histamine skin prick testing is most commonly used to diagnose immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated allergic diseases, and histamine reactivity is used as a standardized positive control in the interpretation of a skin prick test. However, reactivity to histamine differs among individuals for reasons that are poorly understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the potential association between body mass index (BMI) and histamine skin reactivity in children. Methods: A total of 451 children (246 boys, 205 girls) aged 7–8 years were enrolled in this study. The skin prick test was performed with 26 aeroallergens commonly found in Korea. Other information was collected, including sex, age, BMI, parental allergy history, and parental smoking status. Multivariate analysis was used to confirm the association between histamine skin reactivity and BMI. Results: The histamine wheal size was revealed to be associated with BMI (Spearman's Rho 0.161, p < 0.001). This association was confirmed by multivariate analysis, after adjusting for sex, age, parental allergy history, parental smoking status, and allergic sensitization (coefficient B 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.030–0.112). Conclusions: Skin responses to histamine were primarily correlated with increased BMI. Further studies are needed to understand the clinical implication of BMI when interpreting the results of skin prick test.

Keywords: allergy, body mass index, histamine, skin prick test

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1029 Academic Influence of Social Network Sites on the Collegiate Performance of Technical College Students

Authors: Jameson McFarlane, Thorne J. McFarlane, Leon Bernard

Abstract:

Social network sites (SNS) is an emerging phenomenon that is here to stay. The popularity and the ubiquity of the SNS technology are undeniable. Because most SNS are free and easy to use people from all walks of life and from almost any age are attracted to that technology. College age students are by far the largest segment of the population using SNS. Since most SNS have been adapted for mobile devices, not only do you find students using this technology in their study, while working on labs or on projects, a substantial number of students have been found to use SNS even while listening to lectures. This study found that SNS use has a significant negative impact on the grade point average of college students particularly in the first semester. However, this negative impact is greatly diminished by the end of the third semester partly because the students have adjusted satisfactorily to the challenges of college or because they have learned how to adequately manage their time. It was established that the kinds of activities the students are engaged in during the SNS use are the leading factor affecting academic performance. Of those activities, using SNS during a lecture or while studying is the foremost contributing factor to lower academic performance. This is due to “cognitive” or “information” bottleneck, a condition in which the students find it very difficult to multitask or to switch between resources leading to inefficiency in information retention and thus, educational performance.

Keywords: social network sites, social network analysis, regression coefficient, psychological engagement

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1028 Geo-Spatial Distribution of Radio Refractivity and the Influence of Fade Depth on Microwave Propagation Signals over Nigeria

Authors: Olalekan Lawrence Ojo

Abstract:

Designing microwave terrestrial propagation networks requires a thorough evaluation of the severity of multipath fading, especially at frequencies below 10 GHz. In nations like Nigeria, without a large enough databases to support the existing empirical models, the mistakes in the prediction technique intended for the evaluation may be severe. The need for higher bandwidth for various satellite applications makes the investigation of the effects of radio refractivity, fading due to multipath, and Geoclimatic factors on satellite propagation links more important. One of the key elements to take into account for the best functioning of microwave frequencies is the clear air effects. This work has taken into account the geographical distribution of radio refractivity and fades depth over a number of stations in Nigeria. Data from five locations in Nigeria—Akure, Enugu, Jos, Minna, and Sokoto—based on five-year (2017–2021) measurement methods of atmospheric pressure, relative, and humidity temperature—at two levels (ground surface and 100 m heights)—are studied to deduced their effects on signals propagated through a µwave communication links. The assessments included considerations for µwave communication systems as well as the impacts of the dry and wet components of radio refractivity, the effects of the fade depth at various frequencies, and a 20 km link distance. The results demonstrate that the percentage occurrence of the dry terms dominated the radio refractivity constituent at the surface level, contributing a minimum of about 78% and a maximum of about 92%, while at heights of 100 meters, the percentage occurrence of the dry terms dominated the radio refractivity constituent, contributing a minimum of about 79% and a maximum of about 92%. The spatial distribution reveals that, regardless of height, the country's tropical rainforest (TRF) and freshwater swampy mangrove (FWSM) regions reported the greatest values of radio refractivity. The statistical estimate shows that fading values can differ by as much as 1.5 dB, especially near the TRF and FWSM coastlines, even during clear air conditions. The current findings will be helpful for budgeting Earth-space microwave links, particularly for the rollout of Nigeria's 5G and 6G projected microcellular networks.

Keywords: fade depth, geoclimatic factor, refractivity, refractivity gradient

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1027 Simulation of Ester Based Mud Performance through Drilling Genting Timur Field

Authors: Lina Ismail Jassim, Robiah Yunus

Abstract:

To successfully drill oil or gas well, two main characteristics of numerous other tasks of an efficient drilling fluid are required, which are suspended and carrying cuttings from the beneath wellbore to the surface and managed between pore (formation) and hydrostatic pressure (mud pressure). Several factors like mud composition and its rheology, wellbore design, drilled cuttings characteristics and drilling string rotation contribute to drill wellbore successfully. Simulation model can support an appropriate indication on the drilling fluid performance in the real field as Genting Timur field, located in Pahang in Malaysia on 4295 m depth, held the world record in Sempah Muda 1 (Vertical). A detailed 3 dimensional CFD analysis of vertical, concentric annular two phase flow was developed to study and asses Herschel Bulkley drilling fluid. The effect of Hematite, Barite and calcium carbonates types and size of cutting rock particles on such flow is analyzed. The vertical flows are also associated with a good amount of temperature variation along the depth. This causes a good amount of change in viscosity of the fluid, which is non-Newtonian in nature. Good understanding of the nature of such flows is imperative in developing and maintaining successful vertical well systems. A detailed analysis of flow characteristics due to the drill pipe rotation is done in this work. The inner cylinder of the annulus gets different rotational speed, depending upon the operating conditions. This speed induces a good swirl on the particles and primary fluids which interpret in Ester based drilling fluid cleaning well ability, which in turn determines energy loss along the pipe. Energy loss is assessed in this work in terms of wall shear stress and pressure drop along the pipe. The flow is under an adverse pressure gradient condition, which causes chance of reversed flow and transfers the rock cuttings to the surface.

Keywords: concentric annulus, non-Newtonian, two phase, Herschel Bulkley

Procedia PDF Downloads 290