Search results for: light gradient boosting model (LGBM)
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 20548

Search results for: light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

2308 Evaluating the Understanding of the University Students (Basic Sciences and Engineering) about the Numerical Representation of the Average Rate of Change

Authors: Saeid Haghjoo, Ebrahim Reyhani, Fahimeh Kolahdouz

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The present study aimed to evaluate the understanding of the students in Tehran universities (Iran) about the numerical representation of the average rate of change based on the Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes (SOLO). In the present descriptive-survey research, the statistical population included undergraduate students (basic sciences and engineering) in the universities of Tehran. The samples were 604 students selected by random multi-stage clustering. The measurement tool was a task whose face and content validity was confirmed by math and mathematics education professors. Using Cronbach's Alpha criterion, the reliability coefficient of the task was obtained 0.95, which verified its reliability. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (chi-squared and independent t-tests) under SPSS-24 software. According to the SOLO model in the prestructural, unistructural, and multistructural levels, basic science students had a higher percentage of understanding than that of engineering students, although the outcome was inverse at the relational level. However, there was no significant difference in the average understanding of both groups. The results indicated that students failed to have a proper understanding of the numerical representation of the average rate of change, in addition to missconceptions when using physics formulas in solving the problem. In addition, multiple solutions were derived along with their dominant methods during the qualitative analysis. The current research proposed to focus on the context problems with approximate calculations and numerical representation, using software and connection common relations between math and physics in the teaching process of teachers and professors.

Keywords: average rate of change, context problems, derivative, numerical representation, SOLO taxonomy

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2307 A Study on Wage Discrimination Between Young and Middle-Aged Workers in Indian Informal Sector: Evidence from Periodic Labour Force Survey

Authors: Dharshini S.

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India is currently experiencing a shift in wage discrimination from gender, caste and religion to different age groups in both formal and informal sectors. In this milieu, this study examines wage discrimination in the informal labour market between young people (15-29 years) and middle-aged people (30-59 years) among regular and casual employees in the Indian informal sector. The data was collected using periodic labour force (PLFS), and the original data was extracted from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), Government of India. The OLS regression model explores the determinants of wages for both regular and casual employees. Moreover, the Blinder Oaxaca decomposition method is used to explore the explained and unexplained components of this wage discrimination. The younger people (regular and casual employees) get lower wages as compared to middle-aged employees in the informal sector. The regression result follows the human capital theory, where education, job experience and higher occupation help to raise the wage rate of middle-aged people more than young-aged people in regular work. Furthermore, we found the rising trend of wage discrimination between the above groups over the years from 2017-18 to 2022-23. Unexplained factors (discrimination effects) contribute more to the wage differentiation between the young and middle age groups. It indicates that wage discrimination persists among regular and casual employees in the informal labour market, which is not a good sign for the economy. For the betterment of workers who face discrimination for age, the policies and programs should be implemented like other countries such as the U.S.A to stop age discrimination due to stereotypes in India.

Keywords: wage discrimination, young workers, middle workers, Informal sector, blinder oaxaca decomposition, PLFS.

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2306 Humoral and Cellular Immune Responses to Major Human Cytomegalovirus Antigens in Mice Model

Authors: S. Essa, H. Safar, R. Raghupathy

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Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) continues to be a source of severe complications to immunologically immature and immune-compromised hosts. Effective CMV vaccine that diminishes CMV disease in transplant patients and avoids congenital infection remains of high importance as no approved vaccines exist. Though the exact links of defense mechanisms are unidentified, viral-specific antibodies and Th1/Th2 cytokine responses have been involved in controlling viral infections. CMV envelope glycoprotein B (UL55/gB), the matrix proteins (UL83/pp65, UL99/pp28, UL32/pp150), and the assembly protein UL80a/pp38 are known to be targets of antiviral immune responses. In this study, mice were immunized with five HCMV antigens (UL32/pp150, UL80a/pp38, UL99/pp28, and UL83/pp65), and serum samples were collected and evaluated for eliciting viral-specific antibody responses. Moreover, Splenocytes were collected, stimulated, and assessed for cytokine responses. The results demonstrated a CMV-antigen-specific antibody response to pp38 and pp65 (E/C >2.0). The highest titers were detected with pp38 (average E/C 16.275) followed by pp65 (average E/C 7.72). Compared to control cells, splenocytes from PP38 antigen immunized mice gave a significantly higher concentration of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-2 IL-4, IL-5, and IL-17A (P<0.05). Also, splenocytes from pp65 antigen immunized mice resulted in a significantly higher concentration of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-2 IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, IL-17A, and TNF- α. The designation of target CMV peptides by identifying viral-specific antibodies and cytokine responses is vital for understanding the protective immune mechanisms during CMV infection and identifying appropriate viral antigens to develop novel vaccines.

Keywords: hepatitis C virus, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, neutrophils, cytokines

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2305 Context and Culture in EFL Learners' and Native Speakers' Discourses

Authors: Emad A. S. Abu-Ayyash

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Cohesive devices, the linguistic tools that are usually employed to hold the different parts of the text together, have been the focus of a significant number of discourse analysis studies. These linguistic tools have grabbed the attention of researchers since the inception of the first and most comprehensive model of cohesion in 1976. However, it was noticed that some cohesive devices (e.g., endophoric reference, conjunctions, ellipsis, substitution, and lexical ties) – being thought of as more popular than others (e.g., exophoric reference) – were over-researched. The present paper explores the usage of two cohesive devices that have been evidently almost absent from discourse analysis studies. These cohesive devices are exophoric and homophoric references, the linguistic items that can be interpreted in terms of the physical and cultural contexts of discourse. The significance of the current paper, therefore, stems from the fact that it attempts to fill a gap in the research conducted so far on cohesive devices. This study provides an explanation of the concepts of the cohesive devices that have been employed in a plethora of research on cohesion and elucidates the relevant context-related concepts. The paper also identifies the gap in cohesive devices research. Exophora and homophora, the least visited cohesive devices in previous studies, were qualitatively and quantitatively explored in six opinion articles, four produced by eight postgraduate English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students in a university in the United Arab Emirates and two by professional NS writers in the Independent and the Guardian. The six pieces were about the United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) leader’s call to ban the burqa in the UK and were analysed vis-a-vis the employment and function of homophora and exophora. The study found that both EFL students and native speakers employed exophora and homophora considerably in their writing to serve a variety of functions, including building assumptions, supporting main ideas, and involving the readers among others.

Keywords: cohesive devices, context, culture, exophoric reference, homophoric reference

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2304 A Feasibility Study of Waste (d) Potential: Synergistic Effect Evaluation by Co-digesting Organic Wastes and Kinetics of Biogas Production

Authors: Kunwar Paritosh, Sanjay Mathur, Monika Yadav, Paras Gandhi, Subodh Kumar, Nidhi Pareek, Vivekanand Vivekanand

Abstract:

A significant fraction of energy is wasted every year managing the biodegradable organic waste inadequately as development and sustainability are the inherent enemies. The management of these waste is indispensable to boost its optimum utilization by converting it to renewable energy resource (here biogas) through anaerobic digestion and to mitigate greenhouse gas emission. Food and yard wastes may prove to be appropriate and potential feedstocks for anaerobic co-digestion for biogas production. The present study has been performed to explore the synergistic effect of co-digesting food waste and yard trimmings from MNIT campus for enhanced biogas production in different ratios in batch tests (37±10C, 90 rpm, 45 days). The results were overwhelming and showed that blending two different organic waste in proper ratio improved the biogas generation considerably, with the highest biogas yield (2044±24 mLg-1VS) that was achieved at 75:25 of food waste to yard waste ratio on volatile solids (VS) basis. The yield was 1.7 and 2.2 folds higher than the mono-digestion of food or yard waste (1172±34, 1016±36mLg-1VS) respectively. The increase in biogas production may be credited to optimum C/N ratio resulting in higher yield. Also Adding TiO2 nanoparticles showed virtually no effect on biogas production as sometimes nanoparticles enhance biogas production. ICP-MS, FTIR analysis was carried out to gain an insight of feedstocks. Modified Gompertz and logistics models were applied for the kinetic study of biogas production where modified Gompertz model showed goodness-of-fit (R2=0.9978) with the experimental results.

Keywords: anaerobic co-digestion, biogas, kinetics, nanoparticle, organic waste

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2303 Application of Flory Paterson’s Theory on the Volumetric Properties of Liquid Mixtures: 1,2-Dichloroethane with Aliphatic and Cyclic Ethers

Authors: Linda Boussaid, Farid Brahim Belaribi

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The physico-chemical properties of liquid materials in the industrial field, in general, and in that of the chemical industries, in particular, constitutes a prerequisite for the design of equipment, for the resolution of specific problems (related to the techniques of purification and separation, at risk in the transport of certain materials, etc.) and, therefore, at the production stage. Chloroalkanes, ethers constitute three chemical families having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. For example, these compounds are used in various applications in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, they contribute to the particular thermodynamic behavior (deviation from ideality, association, etc.) of certain mixtures which constitute a severe test for predictive theoretical models. Finally, due to the degradation of the environment in the world, a renewed interest is observed for ethers, because some of their physicochemical properties could contribute to lower pollution (ethers would be used as additives in aqueous fuels.). This work is a thermodynamic, experimental and theoretical study of the volumetric properties of liquid binary systems formed from compounds belonging to the chemical families of chloroalkanes, ethers, having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. Experimental determination of the densities and excess volumes of the systems studied, at different temperatures in the interval [278.15-333.15] K and at atmospheric pressure, using an AntonPaar vibrating tube densitometer of the DMA5000 type. This contribution of experimental data, on the volumetric properties of the binary liquid mixtures of 1,2-dichloroethane with an ether, supplemented by an application of the theoretical model of Prigogine-Flory-Patterson PFP, will probably contribute to the enrichment of the thermodynamic database and the further development of the theory of Flory in its Prigogine-Flory-Patterson (PFP) version, for a better understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of these liquid binary mixtures

Keywords: prigogine-flory-patterson (pfp), propriétés volumétrique , volume d’excés, ethers

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2302 Determining Cellular Biomarkers Sensitive to Low Damaging Exposure

Authors: Svetlana Guryeva, Inna Kornienko, Elena Petersen

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At present, translational medicine is a rapidly developing branch of biomedicine. The main idea of translational medicine is a practical application of fundamental research. One of the possible applications for translational medicine is researching therapies that improve human age-related organism condition. To fill the gap between experiments and clinical practice, it is necessary to create the standardized system for the investigation of different effects on cellular aging models. In this study, primary human fibroblasts derived from patients of different ages were used as a cellular aging model. The senescence-associated β-galactosidase activity, lipofuscin, γ-H2AX, the reactive oxygen species level, and cell death markers (annexin V/propidium iodide) were used as biomarkers of the cell functional state. The effects of damaging exposures (oxidative stress and heat shock), potential positive factors (metformin and acetaminophen), and their combinations were investigated using the described biomarkers. Oxidative stress and heat shock caused the increase in the levels of all biomarkers, and only the cells from young patients partly coped with stress 3 days after the exposures. Metformin improved the state of pretreatment cells from young and old patients. The acetaminophen did not show significant changes in the biomarker levels compare to the action of metformin. This study proved the opportunity to develop a standardized screening system based on biomarkers of the cell functional state to identify potential positive or negative effects of some physical and chemical exposures. Moreover, such a system can be useful for the aims of regenerative medicine to determine the effect of cell pretreatment before transplantation.

Keywords: biomarkers, primary fibroblasts, regenerative medicine, senescence, test system, translational medicine

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2301 Evaluating Seismic Earth Pressure Effects on Building Lateral Stability: Sensitivity to Retention Height Differences and Sloped Site Conditions

Authors: Rod Davis, Sara Saminfar

Abstract:

Earthquakes can induce dynamic earth pressures on retaining walls, which are in addition to the static earth pressures. This raises questions about how to effectively combine the seismic lateral earth pressure with other loads on buildings, including static lateral earth pressure. When basement walls retain soil with differing exterior grades on opposite sides, the seismic increment of active earth pressure should be considered. Additionally, buildings situated on sloped sites with stepped retention may experience unique dynamic effects due to soil-structure interactions, potentially amplifying the lateral pressures exerted on the retaining walls and influencing the building's response during seismic events. To account for the dynamic effects of the retained soil on the building's responses, it is essential to interconnect the building structure with the surrounding soil to facilitate their interaction as the embedded structure and the surrounding soil move together during an earthquake. Consequently, a finite element model of the building is developed, with the rigid retaining walls and restrained to the floor diaphragms. This paper aims to explore the dynamic effects of retained soil on the lateral stability of buildings and the sensitivity of the building's responses to differences in the retained heights on opposite sides of the building basement. Furthermore, the results are compared with those from a sloped site to evaluate the impact of stepped retention on dynamic soil pressure. These findings will help establish a minimum threshold for differences in retained heights on opposite sides of a building that necessitates the inclusion of dynamic soil pressure in the building's lateral stability analysis.

Keywords: dynamic earth pressures, soil-structure interaction, stepped retention, building retention

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2300 Constitutional Transition and Criminal Justice: Proposals for Reform of Kenya’s Youth Justice System Based on Restorative Justice Principles

Authors: M. Wangai

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Following the promulgation of a new Constitution of Kenya in 2010, wide-ranging proposals for reform of the criminal justice system have been made. Proposed measures include a clear and separate system of dealing with juvenile offenders with a greater focus on rehabilitation and reintegration. As part of a broader constitutional transition, this article considers the contribution of restorative justice to reforming the youth justice system. The paper analyses Kenya’s juvenile justice legal framework measured against current international trends in youth justice. It identifies the first post-independence juvenile justice system as a remnant of the colonial period and notes that the post-2001 system is a marked improvement. More recent legal and institutional efforts to incorporate restorative justice are also examined. The paper advocates further development of the juvenile justice system by mainstreaming of restorative justice principles through national level legislative amendments. International and comparative perspectives are used to inform a diversion centered model of restorative justice. In addition, a case is made for the use of existing forms of alternative dispute resolution. Conscious of a tense political climate, the paper also proposes strategies to address challenges posed by a punitive penal environment, chiefly the linking of restorative justice to wider democratic goals and community spirit. The article concludes that restorative justice led juvenile justice reform will contribute to better treatment of young offenders under the criminal justice system and has the potential to set a new precedent for fair, sustainable and effective justice. Further, as part of far-reaching criminal justice reform, the proposed efforts may strengthen democratic progress in Kenya’s ensuing phase of political transition.

Keywords: constitutional transition, criminal justice, restorative justice, young offenders

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2299 Design of Sustainable Concrete Pavement by Incorporating RAP Aggregates

Authors: Selvam M., Vadthya Poornachandar, Surender Singh

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These Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) aggregates are generally dumped in the open area after the demolition of Asphalt Pavements. The utilization of RAP aggregates in cement concrete pavements may provide several socio-economic-environmental benefits and could embrace the circular economy. The cross recycling of RAP aggregates in the concrete pavement could reduce the consumption of virgin aggregates and saves the fertile land. However, the structural, as well as functional properties of RAP-concrete could be significantly lower than the conventional Pavement Quality Control (PQC) pavements. This warrants judicious selection of RAP fraction (coarse and fine aggregates) along with the accurate proportion of the same for PQC highways. Also, the selection of the RAP fraction and its proportion shall not be solely based on the mechanical properties of RAP-concrete specimens but also governed by the structural and functional behavior of the pavement system. In this study, an effort has been made to predict the optimum RAP fraction and its corresponding proportion for cement concrete pavements by considering the low-volume and high-volume roads. Initially, the effect of inclusions of RAP on the fresh and mechanical properties of concrete pavement mixes is mapped through an extensive literature survey. Almost all the studies available to date are considered for this study. Generally, Indian Roads Congress (IRC) methods are the most widely used design method in India for the analysis of concrete pavements, and the same has been considered for this study. Subsequently, fatigue damage analysis is performed to evaluate the required safe thickness of pavement slab for different fractions of RAP (coarse RAP). Consequently, the performance of RAP-concrete is predicted by employing the AASHTO-1993 model for the following distresses conditions: faulting, cracking, and smoothness. The performance prediction and total cost analysis of RAP aggregates depict that the optimum proportions of coarse RAP aggregates in the PQC mix are 35% and 50% for high volume and low volume roads, respectively.

Keywords: concrete pavement, RAP aggregate, performance prediction, pavement design

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2298 The Analysis of Changes in Urban Hierarchy of Isfahan Province in the Fifty-Year Period (1956-2006)

Authors: Hamidreza Joudaki, Yousefali Ziari

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The appearance of city and urbanism is one of the important processes which have affected social communities. Being industrialized urbanism developed along with each other in the history. In addition, they have had simple relationship for more than six thousand years, that is, from the appearance of the first cities. In 18th century by coming out of industrial capitalism, progressive development took place in urbanism in the world. In Iran, the city of each region made its decision by itself and the capital of region (downtown) was the only central part and also the regional city without any hierarchy, controlled its realm. However, this method of ruling during these three decays, because of changing in political, social and economic issues that have caused changes in rural and urban relationship. Moreover, it has changed the variety of performance of cities and systematic urban network in Iran. Today, urban system has very vast imbalanced apace and performance. In Isfahan, the trend of urbanism is like the other part of Iran and systematic urban hierarchy is not suitable and normal. This article is a quantitative and analytical. The statistical communities are Isfahan Province cities and the changes in urban network and its hierarchy during the period of fifty years (1956 -2006) has been surveyed. In addition, those data have been analyzed by model of Rank and size and Entropy index. In this article Iran cities and also the factor of entropy of primate city and urban hierarchy of Isfahan Province have been introduced. Urban residents of this Province have been reached from 55 percent to 83% (2006). As we see the analytical data reflects that there is mismatching and imbalance between cities. Because the entropy index was.91 in 1956.And it decreased to.63 in 2006. Isfahan city is the primate city in the whole of these periods. Moreover, the second and the third cities have population gap with regard to the other cities and finally, they do not follow the system of rank-size.

Keywords: urban network, urban hierarchy, primate city, Isfahan province, urbanism, first cities

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2297 Impact of Charging PHEV at Different Penetration Levels on Power System Network

Authors: M. R. Ahmad, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, N. A. Rahmat

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Plug-in Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV) has gained immense popularity in recent years. PHEV offers numerous advantages compared to the conventional internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Millions of PHEVs are estimated to be on the road in the USA by 2020. Uncoordinated PHEV charging is believed to cause severe impacts to the power grid; i.e. feeders, lines and transformers overload and voltage drop. Nevertheless, improper PHEV data model used in such studies may cause the findings of their works is in appropriated. Although smart charging is more attractive to researchers in recent years, its implementation is not yet attainable on the street due to its requirement for physical infrastructure readiness and technology advancement. As the first step, it is finest to study the impact of charging PHEV based on real vehicle travel data from National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and at present charging rate. Due to the lack of charging station on the street at the moment, charging PHEV at home is the best option and has been considered in this work. This paper proposed a technique that comprehensively presents the impact of charging PHEV on power system networks considering huge numbers of PHEV samples with its traveling data pattern. Vehicles Charging Load Profile (VCLP) is developed and implemented in IEEE 30-bus test system that represents a portion of American Electric Power System (Midwestern US). Normalization technique is used to correspond to real time loads at all buses. Results from the study indicated that charging PHEV using opportunity charging will have significant impacts on power system networks, especially whereas bigger battery capacity (kWh) is used as well as for higher penetration level.

Keywords: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, transportation electrification, impact of charging PHEV, electricity demand profile, load profile

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2296 Rental Housing May Address Affordable Housing Deficiency in India

Authors: Meha Singla, Shankhadeep Chaudhuri, Yadunandan Batchu

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Rental Housing is a more cost effective and flexible housing solution for the low income families than home-ownership. While India is undergoing a new industrial metamorphosis with multiple government initiatives that emphasise on the growth of manufacturing sector through policy frameworks and corridor development proposals, there is going to be a huge influx of low-income working population to the upcoming urban centres. As per stats, about 70 per cent of the housing demand at these centres fall into the affordable segment. And in the midst of this rapid urbanisation and huge immigration of young population, there is a lack of proper rental housing framework in the country. A large number of immigrants will be unable to support home-ownership thereby leading to proliferation of slums in urban centres. As a result, there is a dire need for immediate articulation of a comprehensive rental housing policy and affordable housing initiatives. In this paper, CommonFloor attempts to analyse successful rental housing case studies of the world followed by establishing a correlation between the gap in urban rental housing stock and the per capita income statistics to devise rental housing affordability specific to major Indian cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai). Further, with the corroboration of market price trends, it will try to locate feasible micro-markets for immediate rental housing action. Final research findings will provide key data points thereby helping to design the approach for efficient utilisation of unsold residential inventory in the country in order to compensate the rental housing deficiency. This data set is believed to express viable model(s) of the rental housing approach for the government and private participants.

Keywords: housing prices, migration of population, real estate, rental housing, rental markets, residential property market, urbanisation

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2295 Nutrition Environments and the Development of Taste Preferences: A Cross-Sectional Study of Primary School Children in Trinidad and Tobago

Authors: Fareena Alladin

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In the Caribbean, issues of food security, health and taste are intricately linked, seen most clearly in the increasing incidence of lifestyle diseases among children coupled with a taste for high calorie and Westernized diets. In order to fully appreciate this link, the role of nutrition environments must be examined. To this end, the present study incorporates tenets of Bourdieu’s social constructivist theory with the Community Nutrition Environment Model. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between availability of and access to healthy/unhealthy foods within nutrition environments, namely the household and school, and the development of taste preferences for healthy/unhealthy foods among primary school children in a selected educational district in Trinidad and Tobago. A cross-sectional survey of 400 children between the ages of 9 and 11 years was conducted. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS 24. Results indicated that availability of healthy food at home was positively correlated with preference for vegetables, and negatively correlated with preference for salty snacks and fast food. The availability of unhealthy food within the home was found to be negatively correlated with preference for vegetables and positively correlated with preference for salty snacks. Access to unhealthy foods at school had a positive correlation with preference for fast food. These findings highlight the role of the food environment in shaping taste preferences, and point to the need for interrogating the centrality of food security concerns in emerging health concerns of Caribbean countries. Such interrogations are a necessary part of the development of research agendas, and policy formulation and implementation.

Keywords: food security, nutrition environment, taste preference, Trinidad and Tobago

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2294 Influence of Hygro-Thermo-Mechanical Loading on Buckling and Vibrational Behavior of FG-CNT Composite Beam with Temperature Dependent Characteristics

Authors: Puneet Kumar, Jonnalagadda Srinivas

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The authors report here vibration and buckling analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube-polymer composite (FG-CNTPC) beams under hygro-thermo-mechanical environments using higher order shear deformation theory. The material properties of CNT and polymer matrix are often affected by temperature and moisture content. A micromechanical model with agglomeration effect is employed to compute the elastic, thermal and moisture properties of the composite beam. The governing differential equation of FG-CNTRPC beam is developed using higher-order shear deformation theory to account shear deformation effects. The elastic, thermal and hygroscopic strain terms are derived from variational principles. Moreover, thermal and hygroscopic loads are determined by considering uniform, linear and sinusoidal variation of temperature and moisture content through the thickness. Differential equations of motion are formulated as an eigenvalue problem using appropriate displacement fields and solved by using finite element modeling. The obtained results of natural frequencies and critical buckling loads show a good agreement with published data. The numerical illustrations elaborate the dynamic as well as buckling behavior under uniaxial load for different environmental conditions, boundary conditions and volume fraction distribution profile, beam slenderness ratio. Further, comparisons are shown at different boundary conditions, temperatures, degree of moisture content, volume fraction as well as agglomeration of CNTs, slenderness ratio of beam for different shear deformation theories.

Keywords: hygrothermal effect, free vibration, buckling load, agglomeration

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2293 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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2292 Prognostic Impact of Pre-transplant Ferritinemia: A Survival Analysis Among Allograft Patients

Authors: Mekni Sabrine, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aim: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for several hematological diseases; however, it has a non-negligible morbidity and mortality depending on several prognostic factors, including pre-transplant hyperferritinemia. The aim of our study was to estimate the impact of hyperferritinemia on survivals and on the occurrence of post-transplant complications. Methods: It was a longitudinal study conducted over 8 years and including all patients who had a first allograft. The impact of pretransplant hyperferritinemia (ferritinemia ≥1500) on survivals was studied using the Kaplan Meier method and the COX model for uni- and multivariate analysis. The Khi-deux test and binary logistic regression were used to study the association between pretransplant ferritinemia and post-transplant complications. Results: One hundred forty patients were included with an average age of 26.6 years and a sex ratio (M/F)=1.4. Hyperferritinemia was found in 33% of patients. It had no significant impact on either overall survival (p=0.9) or event -free survival (p=0.6). In multivariate analysis, only the type of disease was independently associated with overall survival (p=0.04) and event-free survival (p=0.002). For post-allograft complications: The occurrence of early documented infections was independently associated with pretransplant hyperferritinemia (p=0.02) and the presence of acute graft versus host disease( GVHD) (p<10-3). The occurrence of acute GVHD was associated with early documented infection (p=0.002) and Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p<10-3). The occurrence of chronic GVHD was associated with the presence of Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p=0.006) and graft source (p=0.009). Conclusion: Our study showed the significant impact of pre-transplant hyperferritinemia on the occurrence of early infections but not on survivals. Early and more accurate assessment iron overload by other tests such as liver magnetic resonance imaging with initiation of chelating treatment could prevent the occurrence of such complications after transplantation.

Keywords: allogeneic, transplants, ferritin, survival

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2291 Development of Clinical Nursing Practice Guideline to Prevent Infection During Intubation in Suspected or Confirmed Covid-19 Patients

Authors: Sarinra Thongmee, Adithep Mingsuan, Chanyapak Polkhet, Supattra Wongsuk, Krittaphon Prakobsaeng

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The purposes of this research and development was to develop and evaluation of clinical nursing practice guideline (CNPG) for the prevention of infection during intubation in patient withsuspected or confirmedCOVID-19 patient. This study was developed by using the evidence based practice model of Soukup (2000) as a conceptual framework. The study consisted of 4 steps: 1) situational analysis of intubation service in patients with confirmed COVID-19, 2) development the CNPG, 3) apply the NPG to trial, and 4) evaluation of the NPG. Thesample consisted of 52 nurse anesthetists and 25 infected or suspected COVID-19 patients. The research instrument consisted of 1) CNPG, 2) the nurses anesthetist opinion questionnaire to the guideline, 3) the evaluation practice form, and 4) the nurse anesthetist knowledge test on nursing care of patients infected with COVID-19. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test. The results found that this developed NPG consists of 4 sections: 1) NPG for Preventing Airborne Infection Prevention2) preparation of anesthetic and intubation equipments 3) roles and duties of the intubation team 4) guidelines for intubation in suspected or confirmed COVID-19patients. The result found that 1) provider: using NPG in providers revealed that nurse anesthetist had higher mean of knowledge scores than before using NPG statistically significant at the 0.05 level (p<0.01) and able to follow the NPG 100% in all activities. The anesthetic team was not infected with COVID-19from intubation outside operating room.2) Client: the patient was safe, no complications from intubation. Summary CNPG to prevent infection in intubation of suspected or confirmedCOVID-19 patient was appropriate and applicable to practice.

Keywords: nursing practice guideline, prevention of infection, endotracheal intubation, COVID-19

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2290 The Impact of Lipids on Lung Fibrosis

Authors: G. Wojcik, J. Gindlhuber, A. Syarif, K. Hoetzenecker, P. Bohm, P. Vesely, V. Biasin, G. Kwapiszewska

Abstract:

Pulmonary fibrosis is a rare disease where uncontrolled wound healing processes damage the lung structure. Intensive changes within the extracellular matrix (ECM) and its interaction with fibroblasts have a major role in pulmonary fibrosis development. Among others, collagen is one of the main components of the ECM, and it is important for lung structure. In IPF, constant production of collagen by fibroblast, through TGFβ1-SMAD2/3 pathways, leads to an uncontrolled deposition of matrix and hence lung remodeling. Abnormal changes in lipid production, alterations in fatty acids (FAs) metabolism, enhanced oxidative stress, and lipid peroxidation in fibrotic lung and fibrotic fibroblasts have been reported; however, the interplay between the collagen and lipids is not yet established. One of the FAs influx regulators is Angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), which inhibits lipoprotein lipase work, decreasing the availability of FAs. We hypothesized that altered lipid composition or availability could have the capability to influence the phenotype of different fibroblast populations in the lung and hence influence lung fibrosis. To prove our hypothesis, we aim to investigate lipids and their influence on human, animal, and in vitro levels. In the bleomycin model, treatment with the well-known metabolic drugs Rosiglitazone or Metformin significantly lower collagen production. Similar results were noticed in ANGPTL4 KO animals, where the KO of ANGPTL4 leads to an increase of FAs availability and lower collagen deposition after the bleomycin challenge. Currently, we study the treatment of different FAs on human lung para fibroblasts (hPF) isolated from donors. To understand the lipid composition, we are collecting human lung tissue from donors and pulmonary fibrosis patients for Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. In conclusion, our results suggest the lipid influence on collagen deposition during lung fibrosis, but further research needs to be conducted to understand the matter of this relationship.

Keywords: collagen, fibroblasts, lipidomics, lung, pulmonary fibrosis

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2289 Machine Learning Approach in Predicting Cracking Performance of Fiber Reinforced Asphalt Concrete Materials

Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

Abstract:

In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

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2288 A Critical Study on Unprecedented Employment Discrimination and Growth of Contractual Labour Engaged by Rail Industry in India

Authors: Munmunlisa Mohanty, K. D. Raju

Abstract:

Rail industry is one of the model employers in India has separate national legislation (Railways Act 1989) to regulate its vast employment structure, functioning across the country. Indian Railway is not only the premier transport industry of the country; indeed, it is Asia’s most extensive rail network organisation and the world’s second-largest industry functioning under one management. With the growth of globalization of industrial products, the scope of anti-employment discrimination is no more confined to gender aspect only; instead, it extended to the unregularized classification of labour force applicable in the various industrial establishments in India. And the Indian Rail Industry inadvertently enhanced such discriminatory employment trends by engaging contractual labour in an unprecedented manner. The engagement of contractual labour by rail industry vanished the core “Employer-Employee” relationship between rail management and contractual labour who employed through the contractor. This employment trend reduces the cost of production and supervision, discourages the contractual labour from forming unions, and reduces its collective bargaining capacity. So, the primary intention of this paper is to highlight the increasing discriminatory employment scope for contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. This paper critically analyses the diminishing perspective of anti-employment opportunity practiced by Indian Railways towards contractual labour and demands an urgent outlook on the probable scope of anti-employment discrimination against contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. The researcher used doctrinal methodology where primary materials (Railways Act, Contract Labour Act and Occupational, health and Safety Code, 2020) and secondary data (CAG Report 2018, Railways Employment Regulation Rules, ILO Report etc.) are used for the paper.

Keywords: anti-employment, CAG Report, contractual labour, discrimination, Indian Railway, principal employer

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2287 Expert Solutions to Affordable Housing Finance Challenges in Developing Economies

Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie C. M. Hui

Abstract:

Housing the urban poor has remained a challenge for many years across the world, especially in developing economies, despite the apparent research attention and policy interventions. It is apt to investigate the prevalent affordable housing (AH) provision challenges using unconventional approaches. It is pragmatic to thoroughly examine housing experts to provide supply-side solutions to AH challenges and investigate informal settlers to deduce solutions from AH demand viewpoints. This study being the supply-side investigation of an ongoing research, interrogated housing experts to determine significant expert solutions. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews were conducted with housing experts in Nigeria. Through descriptive, content, and systematic thematic analyses of data, major findings are that deliberate finance models designed for the urban poor are the most significant housing finance solution in developing economies. Other findings are that adequately implemented rent control policies, deliberate PPP approaches like inclusionary housing and land-value capture, and urban renewal programmes to enlighten and tutor the urban poor on how to earn more, spend wisely, and invest in their own better housing will effectively solve AH finance challenges. Study findings are informative for the best approaches to achieve effective, affordable housing finance for the urban poor in Nigeria, which is indispensable for the achievement of sustainable development goals. This research’s originality lies in the exploration of experts’ opinions in relation to AH finance to produce an equation model of critical solutions to AH finance challenges. Study data are useful resources for future pro-poor housing studies. This study makes housing policy-oriented recommendations toward effective, affordable housing for the urban poor in developing countries.

Keywords: affordable housing, effective affordable housing, housing policy, housing research, sustainable development, urban poor

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2286 Chronolgy and Developments in Inventory Control Best Practices for FMCG Sector

Authors: Roopa Singh, Anurag Singh, Ajay

Abstract:

Agriculture contributes a major share in the national economy of India. A major portion of Indian economy (about 70%) depends upon agriculture as it forms the main source of income. About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultural activity which involves 65-75% of total population of India. The given work deals with the Fast moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries and their inventories which use agricultural produce as their raw material or input for their final product. Since the beginning of inventory practices, many developments took place which can be categorised into three phases, based on the review of various works. The first phase is related with development and utilization of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and methods for optimizing costs and profits. Second phase deals with inventory optimization method, with the purpose of balancing capital investment constraints and service level goals. The third and recent phase has merged inventory control with electrical control theory. Maintenance of inventory is considered negative, as a large amount of capital is blocked especially in mechanical and electrical industries. But the case is different in food processing and agro-based industries and their inventories due to cyclic variation in the cost of raw materials of such industries which is the reason for selection of these industries in the mentioned work. The application of electrical control theory in inventory control makes the decision-making highly instantaneous for FMCG industries without loss in their proposed profits, which happened earlier during first and second phases, mainly due to late implementation of decision. The work also replaces various inventories and work-in-progress (WIP) related errors with their monetary values, so that the decision-making is fully target-oriented.

Keywords: control theory, inventory control, manufacturing sector, EOQ, feedback, FMCG sector

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2285 Characterization of the GntR Family Transcriptional Regulator Rv0792c: A Potential Drug Target for Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Authors: Thanusha D. Abeywickrama, Inoka C. Perera, Genji Kurisu

Abstract:

Tuberculosis, considered being as the ninth leading cause of death worldwide, cause from a single infectious agent M. tuberculosis and the drug resistance nature of this bacterium is a continuing threat to the world. Therefore TB preventing treatment is expanding, where this study designed to analyze the regulatory mechanism of GntR transcriptional regulator gene Rv0792c, which lie between several genes codes for some hypothetical proteins, a monooxygenase and an oxidoreductase. The gene encoding Rv0792c was cloned into pET28a and expressed protein was purified to near homogeneity by Nickel affinity chromatography. It was previously reported that the protein binds within the intergenic region (BS region) between Rv0792c gene and monooxygenase (Rv0793). This resulted in binding of three protein molecules with the BS region suggesting tight control of monooxygenase as well as its own gene. Since monooxygenase plays a key role in metabolism, this gene may have a global regulatory role. The natural ligand for this regulator is still under investigation. In relation to the Rv0792 protein structure, a Circular Dichroism (CD) spectrum was carried out to determine its secondary structure elements. Percentage-wise, 17.4% Helix, 21.8% Antiparallel, 5.1% Parallel, 12.3% turn and 43.5% other were revealed from CD spectrum data under room temperature. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was conducted to assess the thermal stability of Rv0792, which the melting temperature of protein is 57.2 ± 0.6 °C. The graph of heat capacity (Cp) versus temperature for the best fit was obtained for non-two-state model, which concludes the folding of Rv0792 protein occurs through stable intermediates. Peak area (∆HCal ) and Peak shape (∆HVant ) was calculated from the graph and ∆HCal / ∆HVant was close to 0.5, suggesting dimeric nature of the protein.

Keywords: CD spectrum, DSC analysis, GntR transcriptional regulator, protein structure

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2284 Exergy Analysis of a Vapor Absorption Refrigeration System Using Carbon Dioxide as Refrigerant

Authors: Samsher Gautam, Apoorva Roy, Bhuvan Aggarwal

Abstract:

Vapor absorption refrigeration systems can replace vapor compression systems in many applications as they can operate on a low-grade heat source and are environment-friendly. Widely used refrigerants such as CFCs and HFCs cause significant global warming. Natural refrigerants can be an alternative to them, among which carbon dioxide is promising for use in automotive air conditioning systems. Its inherent safety, ability to withstand high pressure and high heat transfer coefficient coupled with easy availability make it a likely choice for refrigerant. Various properties of the ionic liquid [bmim][PF₆], such as non-toxicity, stability over a wide temperature range and ability to dissolve gases like carbon dioxide, make it a suitable absorbent for a vapor absorption refrigeration system. In this paper, an absorption chiller consisting of a generator, condenser, evaporator and absorber was studied at an operating temperature of 70⁰C. A thermodynamic model was set up using the Peng-Robinson equations of state to predict the behavior of the refrigerant and absorbent pair at different points in the system. A MATLAB code was used to obtain the values of enthalpy and entropy at selected points in the system. The exergy destruction in each component and exergetic coefficient of performance (ECOP) of the system were calculated by performing an exergy analysis based on the second law of thermodynamics. Graphs were plotted between varying operating conditions and the ECOP obtained in each case. The effect of every component on the ECOP was examined. The exergetic coefficient of performance was found to be lesser than the coefficient of performance based on the first law of thermodynamics.

Keywords: [bmim][PF₆] as absorbent, carbon dioxide as refrigerant, exergy analysis, Peng-Robinson equations of state, vapor absorption refrigeration

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2283 Solving LWE by Pregressive Pumps and Its Optimization

Authors: Leizhang Wang, Baocang Wang

Abstract:

General Sieve Kernel (G6K) is considered as currently the fastest algorithm for the shortest vector problem (SVP) and record holder of open SVP challenge. We study the lattice basis quality improvement effects of the Workout proposed in G6K, which is composed of a series of pumps to solve SVP. Firstly, we use a low-dimensional pump output basis to propose a predictor to predict the quality of high-dimensional Pumps output basis. Both theoretical analysis and experimental tests are performed to illustrate that it is more computationally expensive to solve the LWE problems by using a G6K default SVP solving strategy (Workout) than these lattice reduction algorithms (e.g. BKZ 2.0, Progressive BKZ, Pump, and Jump BKZ) with sieving as their SVP oracle. Secondly, the default Workout in G6K is optimized to achieve a stronger reduction and lower computational cost. Thirdly, we combine the optimized Workout and the Pump output basis quality predictor to further reduce the computational cost by optimizing LWE instances selection strategy. In fact, we can solve the TU LWE challenge (n = 65, q = 4225, = 0:005) 13.6 times faster than the G6K default Workout. Fourthly, we consider a combined two-stage (Preprocessing by BKZ- and a big Pump) LWE solving strategy. Both stages use dimension for free technology to give new theoretical security estimations of several LWE-based cryptographic schemes. The security estimations show that the securities of these schemes with the conservative Newhope’s core-SVP model are somewhat overestimated. In addition, in the case of LAC scheme, LWE instances selection strategy can be optimized to further improve the LWE-solving efficiency even by 15% and 57%. Finally, some experiments are implemented to examine the effects of our strategies on the Normal Form LWE problems, and the results demonstrate that the combined strategy is four times faster than that of Newhope.

Keywords: LWE, G6K, pump estimator, LWE instances selection strategy, dimension for free

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2282 An Experiment Research on the Effect of Brain-Break in the Classroom on Elementary School Students’ Selective Attention

Authors: Hui Liu, Xiaozan Wang, Jiarong Zhong, Ziming Shao

Abstract:

Introduction: Related research shows that students don’t concentrate on teacher’s speaking in the classroom. The d2 attention test is a time-limited test about selective attention. The d2 attention test can be used to evaluate individual selective attention. Purpose: To use the d2 attention test tool to measure the difference between the attention level of the experimental class and the control class before and after Brain-Break and to explore the effect of Brain-Break in the classroom on students' selective attention. Methods: According to the principle of no difference in pre-test data, two classes in the fourth- grade of Shenzhen Longhua Central Primary School were selected. After 20 minutes of class in the third class in the morning and the third class in the afternoon, about 3-minute Brain-Break intervention was performed in the experimental class for 10 weeks. The normal class in the control class did not intervene. Before and after the experiment, the d2 attention test tool was used to test the attention level of the two-class students. The paired sample t-test and independent sample t-test in SPSS 23.0 was used to test the change in the attention level of the two-class classes around 10 weeks. This article only presents results with significant differences. Results: The independent sample t-test results showed that after ten-week of Brain-Break, the missed errors (E1 t = -2.165 p = 0.042), concentration performance (CP t = 1.866 p = 0.05), and the degree of omissions (Epercent t = -2.375 p = 0.029) in experimental class showed significant differences compared with control class. The students’ error level decreased and the concentration increased. Conclusions: Adding Brain-Break interventions in the classroom can effectively improve the attention level of fourth-grade primary school students to a certain extent, especially can improve the concentration of attention and decrease the error rate in the tasks. The new sport's learning model is worth promoting

Keywords: cultural class, micromotor, attention, D2 test

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2281 Traumatic Osteoarthritis Induces Mechanical Hyperalgesia through IL-1β/TNF-α-Mediated Upregulation of the Sema4D Gene Expression

Authors: Hsiao-Chien Tsai, Yu-Pin Chen, Ruei-Ming Chen

Abstract:

Introduction: Osteoarthritis (OA) is characterized by joint destruction and causes chronic disability. One of the prominent symptoms is pain. Alleviating the pain is necessary and urgent for the therapy of OA patients. However, currently, understanding the mechanisms that drive OA-induced pain remains challenging, which hampers the optimistic management of pain in OA patients. Semaphorin 4D (Sema4D) participates in axon guidance pathway and bone remodeling, thus, may play a role in the regulation of pain in OA. In this study, we have established a rat model of OA to find out the mechanisms of OA-induced pain and to deliberate the roles of Sema4D. Methods: Behavioral changes and the pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-17) associated with pain were measured during the development of OA. Sema4D expression in cartilage and synovial membrane at 1, 4, and 12 weeks after inducing OA was analyzed. To assess if Sema4D is related to the neurogenesis in OA as an axon repellant, we analyzed the expression of PGP9.5 as well. Results: Synovitis and cartilage degradation were evident histologically during the development of OA. Mechanical hyperalgesia was most severe at week 1, then persisted thereafter. It was associated with stress coping strategies. Similar to the pain behavioral results, levels of IL-1β and TNF-α in synovial lavage fluid were significantly elevated in the OA group at weeks 1 and 4, respectively. Sema4D expression in cartilage and the synovial membrane was also enhanced in the OA group and was correlated with pain and pro-inflammatory cytokines. The marker of neurogenesis, PGP9.5, was also enhanced during the development of OA. Discussion: OA induced mechanical hyperalgesia, which might be through upregulating IL-1β/TNF-α-mediated Sema4D expressions. If anti-Sema4D treatment could reduce OA-induced mechanical hyperalgesia and prevent the subsequent progression of OA needs to be further investigated. Significance: OA can induce mechanical hyperalgesia through upregulation of IL-1β/TNF-α-mediated Sema4D and PGP9.5 expressions. And the upregulation of Sema4D may indicate the severity or active status of OA and OA-induced pain.

Keywords: traumatic osteoarthritis, mechanical hyperalgesia, Sema4D, inflammatory cytokines

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2280 Change Management as a Critical Success Factor In E-Government initiatives

Authors: Mohammed Alassim

Abstract:

In 2014, a UN survey stated that: "The greatest challenge to the adoption of whole-of government, which fundamentally rests on increased collaboration, is resistance to change among government actors". Change management has experienced both theoretically and practically many transformation over the years. When organizations have to implement radical changes, they have to encounter a plethora of issues which leads to ineffective or inefficient implementation of change in most cases. 70% of change projects fail because of human issues. It has been cited that” most studies still show a 60-70% failure rate for organizational change projects — a statistic that has stayed constant from the 1970’s to the present.”. E-government involves not just technical change but cultural, policy, social and organizational evolution. Managing change and overcoming resistance to change is seen as crucial in the success of E-government projects. Resistance can be from different levels in the organization (top management, middle management or employees at operational levels). There can be many reasons for resistance including fear of change and insecurity, lack of knowledge and absence of commitment from management to implement the change. The purpose of this study is to conduct in-depth research to understand the process of change and to identify the critical factors that have led to resistance from employees at different levels (top management, Middle management and operational employees) during e-government initiatives in the public sector in Saudi Arabia. The study is based on qualitative and empirical research methods conducted in the public sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This research will use triangulation in data method (interview, group discussion and document review). This research will contribute significantly to knowledge in this field and will identify the measures that can be taken to reduce resistance to change, Upon analysis recommendations or model will be offered which can enable decision makers in public sector in Saudi Arabia how to plan, implement and evaluate change in e-government initiatives via change management strategy.

Keywords: change management, e-government, managing change, resistance to change

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2279 Son Preference in Afghanistan and Its Impact on Fertility Outcomes

Authors: Saha Naseri

Abstract:

Introduction/Objective: Son preference, a preference for sons over daughters, is a practice deeply-rooted in gender inequality that is widespread in many societies and across different religions and cultures. In this study, we are aiming to study the effects of son preference on fertility outcomes (birth interval and current contraceptive use) in Afghanistan, where have been perceived with high rates of son preference. The objectives of the study are to examine the association between the sex of the previous child and the duration of the subsequent birth interval and to evaluate the effect of son preference on current contraceptive use. Methodology: Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) (2015) was used to study the impact of son preference on fertility outcomes among married women. The data collected from 28,661 on currently-married women, aged between 15 and 49 years who have at least one child, have used to conduct this quantitative study. Outcomes of interest are birth interval and current contraceptive use. Simple and multiple regression analysis have been conducted to assess the effect of son preference on these fertility outcomes. Results: The present study has highlighted that son preference somehow exists among married women in Afghanistan. It is indicated that the sex of the first birth is significantly associated with the succeeding birth interval. Having a female child as the first baby was associated with a shorter average succeeding birth interval by 1.8 months compared to a baby boy (p-value = 0.000). For the second model, the results identified that women who desire for more sons have 7% higher odds to be current contraceptive user compared to those who have no preference (p-value = 0.03). The latter results do not indicate the son preference. However, one limitation for this result was the timeliness of the questions asked since contraceptive use in the current time was asked along with a question on ‘future’ desired sex composition. Moreover, women may have just given birth and want to reach a certain time span of birth interval before planning for another child, even if it was a boy, which might have affected the results. Conclusion: Overall, this study has demonstrated that there is a positive relationship between son preference and one main fertility behaviors, birth interval. The second fertility outcome, current contraceptive use, was not a good indicator to measure son preference. Based on the finding, recommendations will be made for appropriate interventions addressing gender norms and related fertility decisions.

Keywords: Afghanistan, birth interval, contraceptive, son preference

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