Search results for: support system
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 22399

Search results for: support system

4189 Distances over Incomplete Diabetes and Breast Cancer Data Based on Bhattacharyya Distance

Authors: Loai AbdAllah, Mahmoud Kaiyal

Abstract:

Missing values in real-world datasets are a common problem. Many algorithms were developed to deal with this problem, most of them replace the missing values with a fixed value that was computed based on the observed values. In our work, we used a distance function based on Bhattacharyya distance to measure the distance between objects with missing values. Bhattacharyya distance, which measures the similarity of two probability distributions. The proposed distance distinguishes between known and unknown values. Where the distance between two known values is the Mahalanobis distance. When, on the other hand, one of them is missing the distance is computed based on the distribution of the known values, for the coordinate that contains the missing value. This method was integrated with Wikaya, a digital health company developing a platform that helps to improve prevention of chronic diseases such as diabetes and cancer. In order for Wikaya’s recommendation system to work distance between users need to be measured. Since there are missing values in the collected data, there is a need to develop a distance function distances between incomplete users profiles. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed distance function in reflecting the actual similarity between different objects, when some of them contain missing values, we integrated it within the framework of k nearest neighbors (kNN) classifier, since its computation is based only on the similarity between objects. To validate this, we ran the algorithm over diabetes and breast cancer datasets, standard benchmark datasets from the UCI repository. Our experiments show that kNN classifier using our proposed distance function outperforms the kNN using other existing methods.

Keywords: missing values, incomplete data, distance, incomplete diabetes data

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4188 Effect of Infill Walls on Response of Multi Storey Reinforced Concrete Structure

Authors: Ayman Abd-Elhamed, Sayed Mahmoud

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The present research work investigates the seismic response of reinforced concrete (RC) frame building considering the effect of modeling masonry infill (MI) walls. The seismic behavior of a residential 6-storey RC frame building, considering and ignoring the effect of masonry, is numerically investigated using response spectrum (RS) analysis. The considered herein building is designed as a moment resisting frame (MRF) system following the Egyptian code (EC) requirements. Two developed models in terms of bare frame and infill walls frame are used in the study. Equivalent diagonal strut methodology is used to represent the behavior of infill walls, whilst the well-known software package ETABS is used for implementing all frame models and performing the analysis. The results of the numerical simulations such as base shear, displacements, and internal forces for the bare frame as well as the infill wall frame are presented in a comparative way. The results of the study indicate that the interaction between infill walls and frames significantly change the responses of buildings during earthquakes compared to the results of bare frame building model. Specifically, the seismic analysis of RC bare frame structure leads to underestimation of base shear and consequently damage or even collapse of buildings may occur under strong shaking. On the other hand, considering infill walls significantly decrease the peak floor displacements and drifts in both X and Y-directions.

Keywords: masonry infill, bare frame, response spectrum, seismic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 390
4187 A Study of Taiwanese Students' Language Use in the Primary International Education via Video Conferencing Course

Authors: Chialing Chang

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Language and culture are critical foundations of international mobility. However, the students who are limited to the local environment may affect their learning outcome and global perspective. Video Conferencing has been proven an economical way for students as a medium to communicate with international students around the world. In Taiwan, the National Development Commission advocated the development of bilingual national policies in 2030 to enhance national competitiveness and foster English proficiency and fully launched bilingual activation of the education system. Globalization is closely related to the development of Taiwan's education. Therefore, the teacher conducted an integrated lesson through interdisciplinary learning. This study aims to investigate how the teacher helps develop students' global and language core competencies in the international education class. The methodology comprises four stages, which are lesson planning, class observation, learning data collection, and speech analysis. The Grice's Conversational Maxims are adopted to analyze the students' conversation in the video conferencing course. It is the action research from the teacher's reflection on approaches to developing students' language learning skills. The study lays the foundation for mastering the teacher's international education professional development and improving teachers' teaching quality and teaching effectiveness as a reference for teachers' future instruction.

Keywords: international education, language learning, Grice's conversational maxims, video conferencing course

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
4186 Optimization and Coordination of Organic Product Supply Chains under Competition: An Analytical Modeling Perspective

Authors: Mohammadreza Nematollahi, Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy, Alireza Tajbakhsh

Abstract:

The last two decades have witnessed substantial attention to organic and sustainable agricultural supply chains. Motivated by real-world practices, this paper aims to address two main challenges observed in organic product supply chains: decentralized decision-making process between farmers and their retailers, and competition between organic products and their conventional counterparts. To this aim, an agricultural supply chain consisting of two farmers, a conventional farmer and an organic farmer who offers an organic version of the same product, is considered. Both farmers distribute their products through a single retailer, where there exists competition between the organic and the conventional product. The retailer, as the market leader, sets the wholesale price, and afterward, the farmers set their production quantity decisions. This paper first models the demand functions of the conventional and organic products by incorporating the effect of asymmetric brand equity, which captures the fact that consumers usually pay a premium for organic due to positive perceptions regarding their health and environmental benefits. Then, profit functions with consideration of some characteristics of organic farming, including crop yield gap and organic cost factor, are modeled. Our research also considers both economies and diseconomies of scale in farming production as well as the effects of organic subsidy paid by the government to support organic farming. This paper explores the investigated supply chain in three scenarios: decentralized, centralized, and coordinated decision-making structures. In the decentralized scenario, the conventional and organic farmers and the retailer maximize their own profits individually. In this case, the interaction between the farmers is modeled under the Bertrand competition, while analyzing the interaction between the retailer and farmers under the Stackelberg game structure. In the centralized model, the optimal production strategies are obtained from the entire supply chain perspective. Analytical models are developed to derive closed-form optimal solutions. Moreover, analytical sensitivity analyses are conducted to explore the effects of main parameters like the crop yield gap, organic cost factor, organic subsidy, and percent price premium of the organic product on the farmers’ and retailer’s optimal strategies. Afterward, a coordination scenario is proposed to convince the three supply chain members to shift from the decentralized to centralized decision-making structure. The results indicate that the proposed coordination scenario provides a win-win-win situation for all three members compared to the decentralized model. Moreover, our paper demonstrates that the coordinated model respectively increases and decreases the production and price of organic produce, which in turn motivates the consumption of organic products in the market. Moreover, the proposed coordination model helps the organic farmer better handle the challenges of organic farming, including the additional cost and crop yield gap. Last but not least, our results highlight the active role of the organic subsidy paid by the government as a means of promoting sustainable organic product supply chains. Our paper shows that although the amount of organic subsidy plays a significant role in the production and sales price of organic products, the allocation method of subsidy between the organic farmer and retailer is not of that importance.

Keywords: analytical game-theoretic model, product competition, supply chain coordination, sustainable organic supply chain

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4185 Mobile Application to Generate Automate Plan for Tourist in The South and West of Saudi Arabia, Saferk

Authors: Hanan M. Alghamdi, Kholud E. Alsalami, Manal I. Alshaikhi, Nouf M. Alsalami, Sara A. Awad, Ruqaya A. Alrabei

Abstract:

Tourism in Saudi Arabia is one of the emerging sectors with rapid growth. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is characterized by its wonderful and historical areas, which constitute important cultural and tourist landmarks. These landmarks attract the attention of the government of Saudi Arabia; hence the improvement of the tourism sector becomes one of the important axes of Saudi Arabia's vision 2030. There is a need to enhance the tourist experience by facilitating the tourism process for visitors to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This project aims to design an application to serve domestic tourists and visitors from outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This application will contain an automated tourist generate plan service by sentiment analysis of comments in Google Map using Lexicon for method Rule-based approach. There are thirteen regions in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The regions supported in this application will be Makkah and Asir regions. According to the output of the sentiment analysis, the application will recommend restaurants and cafes, activities (parks, museums) and shopping (shopping centers) in the generated plan. After that, the system will show the user a drop-down list of “Mega-events in Saudi Arabia” containing a link to the site of events in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. and “important information for you” public decency regulations.

Keywords: tourist automated plan, sentiment analysis, comments in google map, tourism in Saudi Arabia

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4184 Soft Power in International Politics: Defense and Continued Relevance

Authors: Shivani Yadav

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The paper will first elaborate on the concept of soft power as formulated by Joseph Nye, who argues that soft power is as important as hard power in international politics as it replaces coercion with non-coercive forms of co-optation and attraction. The central tenet of the paper is to extrapolate the continued relevance of soft power in international relations in the 21st century. It is argued that the relevance of soft power, in concurrence with hard power, is on the rise in the international system. This is found to be emanating out of two factors. First, the state-centric practice of international relations has expanded to allow other actors to participate in policymaking. This has led to the resources for power generation to become varied, largely move away from the control of governments, and to produce both hard and soft power attributes. Second, as the currency of coercive power seems to be devaluing in global politics, the role of intangible factors like soft power is getting more important in policymaking. The paper will then go on to elaborate on the critiques of the formulation of soft power from various perspectives, as well as the defenses to these critiques presented by soft power proponents. The paper will reflect on the continued relevance of soft power in international politics by giving the example of India, and how soft power has continued to serve its policy objectives over the years. It is observed that even as India is recognized as a rising superpower today, yet it has made a continuous effort in cultivating its soft power resources, which have proven to be its assets in furthering its foreign policy interests. In conclusion, the paper makes the point that soft power, in conjunction with hard power, will shape international politics in the coming times.

Keywords: foreign policy, India’s soft power, international politics, smart power, soft power

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
4183 The Integrated Strategy of Maintenance with a Scientific Analysis

Authors: Mahmoud Meckawey

Abstract:

This research is dealing with one of the most important aspects of maintenance fields, that is Maintenance Strategy. It's the branch which concerns the concepts and the schematic thoughts in how to manage maintenance and how to deal with the defects in the engineering products (buildings, machines, etc.) in general. Through the papers we will act with the followings: i) The Engineering Product & the Technical Systems: When we act with the maintenance process, in a strategic view, we act with an (engineering product) which consists of multi integrated systems. In fact, there is no engineering product with only one system. We will discuss and explain this topic, through which we will derivate a developed definition for the maintenance process. ii) The factors or basis of the functionality efficiency: That is the main factors affect the functional efficiency of the systems and the engineering products, then by this way we can give a technical definition of defects and how they occur. iii) The legality of occurrence of defects (Legal defects and Illegal defects): with which we assume that all the factors of the functionality efficiency been applied, and then we will discuss the results. iv) The Guarantee, the Functional Span Age and the Technical surplus concepts: In the complementation with the above topic, and associated with the Reliability theorems, where we act with the Probability of Failure state, with which we almost interest with the design stages, that is to check and adapt the design of the elements. But in Maintainability we act in a different way as we act with the actual state of the systems. So, we act with the rest of the story that means we have to act with the complementary part of the probability of failure term which refers to the actual surplus of the functionality for the systems.

Keywords: engineering product and technical systems, functional span age, legal and illegal defects, technical and functional surplus

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4182 Contested Fathering: Cameroonian Fathers Facing the Welfare State Parenthood

Authors: Mathias Ebot, Päivi Harinen

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This article focuses on challenges of parenthood for Sub-Saharan African fathers in Finland. In this analysis Finland represents a Nordic welfare society where family relationships are strongly guided by national family policies and discourses. These policies are based on both traditional ideas of a proper Finnish family, as well as on the contemporary waves of female liberation and emphasis on children’s rights. We analyze how especially Cameroonian fathers perceive their parenthood positions and how they characterize and frame their fathering experiences in relation to the mainstream sociopolitical, cultural and national representations of fatherhood in Finland. The analysis is based on interviews and narrative reports collected among Cameroonian fathers living in Finland with their African spouses. The scrutiny shows that in the context where the mainstream cultural and national family representation is created by equality between parents and also between parents and their children, and where “good fatherhood” is created by embodied presence and warm relationships with children these fathers have difficulties: They have to fulfill another fatherhood duty – bread-winning – and thus ensure their labor possibilities all the time, from very marginalized positions of the labor market. When comparing their fatherhood position with the one in Cameroon they also feel embarrassed as the Finnish educational system teaches and encourages their children to challenge their authority as up-raising adults, which in Cameroon could not be possible.

Keywords: Cameroonian fathers, perception, fathering experiences, Finland

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4181 Deep Learning-Based Automated Structure Deterioration Detection for Building Structures: A Technological Advancement for Ensuring Structural Integrity

Authors: Kavita Bodke

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is experiencing growth, necessitating the development of distinct methodologies to address its expanding scope effectively. In this study, we developed automatic structure damage identification, which incorporates three unique types of a building’s structural integrity. The first pertains to the presence of fractures within the structure, the second relates to the issue of dampness within the structure, and the third involves corrosion inside the structure. This study employs image classification techniques to discern between intact and impaired structures within structural data. The aim of this research is to find automatic damage detection with the probability of each damage class being present in one image. Based on this probability, we know which class has a higher probability or is more affected than the other classes. Utilizing photographs captured by a mobile camera serves as the input for an image classification system. Image classification was employed in our study to perform multi-class and multi-label classification. The objective was to categorize structural data based on the presence of cracks, moisture, and corrosion. In the context of multi-class image classification, our study employed three distinct methodologies: Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and CNN. For the task of multi-label image classification, the models employed were Rasnet, Xceptionet, and Inception.

Keywords: SHM, CNN, deep learning, multi-class classification, multi-label classification

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4180 Variations of Total Electron Content over High Latitude Region during the 24th Solar Cycle

Authors: Arun Kumar Singh, Rupesh M. Das, Shailendra Saini

Abstract:

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the total electron content has been investigated over high latitude region during 24th solar cycle (2010-2014). The total electron content data has been observed with the help of Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system installed at Indian permanent scientific 'Maitri station' [70˚46’00”S 11˚43’56” E]. The dependence of TEC over a solar cycle has been examined by the performing linear regression analysis between the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and daily total sunspot numbers (SSN). It has been found that the season and level of geomagnetic activity has a considerable effect on the VTEC. It is observed that the VTEC and SSN follow better agreement during summer seasons as compared to winter and equinox seasons and extraordinary agreement during minimum phase (during the year 2010) of the solar cycle. There is a significant correlation between VTEC and SSN during quiet days of the years as compared to overall days of the years (2010-2014). Further, saturation effect has been observed during maximum phase (during the year 2014) of the 24th solar cycle. It is also found that Ap index and SSN has a linear correlation (R=0.37) and the most of the geomagnetic activity occurs during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Keywords: high latitude ionosphere, sunspot number, correlation, vertical total electron content

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4179 Bioeconomic Modelling for Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in Queensland: Implications for Recreational Fishing Following Recent Gill Netting Closures

Authors: Sabiha S. Marine, Nicole Flint, John Rolfe

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The Queensland state government introduced commercial gill net fishing closures in Cairns, Mackay, and Rockhampton in November 2015 to increase the recreational fishing opportunities, nature-based tourism, and economic benefits in these three regional areas. This management change is likely to improve the potential for more desirable stock structures through natural recruitment. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is one of the popular target fish for recreational and commercial fishers in Northern Australia. This investigation examines the effects of reduced commercial fishing from both biological and economic perspectives, particularly on the local Barramundi population of the Fitzroy River in Rockhampton, the largest river catchment flowing to the eastern coast of Australia. Data on different parameters of biological and economic aspects have been collated from secondary sources for analysis through a system simulation approach to identify the effectiveness of the commercial netting closures on recreational fishing effort, especially for the Barramundi population. The results have the potential to explain certain consequences of the netting closures in Queensland, which could serve to inform future fisheries management decisions. The study output as a whole will help in the better management of fisheries resources by evaluating recreational fishing opportunities in Queensland, where the potential for increases in recreation is high.

Keywords: Barramundi, bioeconomic model, fishery management, recreational fishing

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
4178 Effect of Environmental Factors on Photoreactivation of Microorganisms under Indoor Conditions

Authors: Shirin Shafaei, James R. Bolton, Mohamed Gamal El Din

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Ultraviolet (UV) disinfection causes damage to the DNA or RNA of microorganisms, but many microorganisms can repair this damage after exposure to near-UV or visible wavelengths (310–480 nm) by a mechanism called photoreactivation. Photoreactivation is gaining more attention because it can reduce the efficiency of UV disinfection of wastewater several hours after treatment. The focus of many photoreactivation research activities on the single species has caused a considerable lack in knowledge about complex natural communities of microorganisms and their response to UV treatment. In this research, photoreactivation experiments were carried out on the influent of the UV disinfection unit at a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Edmonton, Alberta after exposure to a Medium-Pressure (MP) UV lamp system to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on photoreactivation of microorganisms in the actual municipal wastewater. The effect of reactivation fluence, temperature, and river water on photoreactivation of total coliforms was examined under indoor conditions. The results showed that higher effective reactivation fluence values (up to 20 J/cm2) and higher temperatures (up to 25 °C) increased the photoreactivation of total coliforms. However, increasing the percentage of river in the mixtures of the effluent and river water decreased the photoreactivation of the mixtures. The results of this research can help the municipal wastewater treatment industry to examine the environmental effects of discharging their effluents into receiving waters.

Keywords: photoreactivation, reactivation fluence, river water, temperature, ultraviolet disinfection, wastewater effluent

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
4177 A Framework Factors Influencing Accounting Information Systems Adoption Success

Authors: Manirath Wongsim

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AIS plays an important role in business management, strategic and can provide assistance in all phases of decision making. Thus, many organisations needs to be seen as well adopting AIS, which is critical to a company in order to organise, manage and operate process in all sections. In order to implement AIS successfully, it is important to understand the underlying factors that influence the AIS adoption. Therefore, this research intends to study this perspective of factors influence and impact on AIS adoption’s success. The model has been designed to illustrate factors influences in AIS adoption. It also attempts to identify the critical success factors that organisations should focus on, to ensure the adoption on accounting process. This framework will be developed from case studies by collecting qualitative and quantitative data. Case study and survey methodology were adopted for this research. Case studies in two Thai- organisations were carried out. The results of the two main case studies suggested 9 factors that may have impact on in AIS adoption. Survey instrument was developed based on the findings from case studies. Two large-scale surveys were sent to selected members of Thailand Accountant, and Thailand Computer Society to further develop and test the research framework. The top three critical factors for ensuring AIS adoption were: top management commitment, steering committees, and Technical capability of AIS personnel. That is, it is now clear which factors impact in AIS adoption, and which of those factors are critical success factors for ensuring AIS adoption successes

Keywords: accounting information system, accounting information systems adoption, and inflecting AIS adoption

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4176 Explanation of Sentinel-1 Sigma 0 by Sentinel-2 Products in Terms of Crop Water Stress Monitoring

Authors: Katerina Krizova, Inigo Molina

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The ongoing climate change affects various natural processes resulting in significant changes in human life. Since there is still a growing human population on the planet with more or less limited resources, agricultural production became an issue and a satisfactory amount of food has to be reassured. To achieve this, agriculture is being studied in a very wide context. The main aim here is to increase primary production on a spatial unit while consuming as low amounts of resources as possible. In Europe, nowadays, the staple issue comes from significantly changing the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation. Recent growing seasons have been considerably affected by long drought periods that have led to quantitative as well as qualitative yield losses. To cope with such kind of conditions, new techniques and technologies are being implemented in current practices. However, behind assessing the right management, there is always a set of the necessary information about plot properties that need to be acquired. Remotely sensed data had gained attention in recent decades since they provide spatial information about the studied surface based on its spectral behavior. A number of space platforms have been launched carrying various types of sensors. Spectral indices based on calculations with reflectance in visible and NIR bands are nowadays quite commonly used to describe the crop status. However, there is still the staple limit by this kind of data - cloudiness. Relatively frequent revisit of modern satellites cannot be fully utilized since the information is hidden under the clouds. Therefore, microwave remote sensing, which can penetrate the atmosphere, is on its rise today. The scientific literature describes the potential of radar data to estimate staple soil (roughness, moisture) and vegetation (LAI, biomass, height) properties. Although all of these are highly demanded in terms of agricultural monitoring, the crop moisture content is the utmost important parameter in terms of agricultural drought monitoring. The idea behind this study was to exploit the unique combination of SAR (Sentinel-1) and optical (Sentinel-2) data from one provider (ESA) to describe potential crop water stress during dry cropping season of 2019 at six winter wheat plots in the central Czech Republic. For the period of January to August, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images were obtained and processed. Sentinel-1 imagery carries information about C-band backscatter in two polarisations (VV, VH). Sentinel-2 was used to derive vegetation properties (LAI, FCV, NDWI, and SAVI) as support for Sentinel-1 results. For each term and plot, summary statistics were performed, including precipitation data and soil moisture content obtained through data loggers. Results were presented as summary layouts of VV and VH polarisations and related plots describing other properties. All plots performed along with the principle of the basic SAR backscatter equation. Considering the needs of practical applications, the vegetation moisture content may be assessed using SAR data to predict the drought impact on the final product quality and yields independently of cloud cover over the studied scene.

Keywords: precision agriculture, remote sensing, Sentinel-1, SAR, water content

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4175 Challenges and Proposals for Public Policies Aimed At Increasing Energy Efficiency in Low-Income Communities in Brazil: A Multi-Criteria Approach

Authors: Anna Carolina De Paula Sermarini, Rodrigo Flora Calili

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Energy Efficiency (EE) needs investments, new technologies, greater awareness and management on the side of citizens and organizations, and more planning. However, this issue is usually remembered and discussed only in moments of energy crises, and opportunities are missed to take better advantage of the potential of EE in the various sectors of the economy. In addition, there is little concern about the subject among the less favored classes, especially in low-income communities. Accordingly, this article presents suggestions for public policies that aim to increase EE for low-income housing and communities based on international and national experiences. After reviewing the literature, eight policies were listed, and to evaluate them; a multicriteria decision model was developed using the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methods, combined with fuzzy logic. Nine experts analyzed the policies according to 9 criteria: economic impact, social impact, environmental impact, previous experience, the difficulty of implementation, possibility/ease of monitoring and evaluating the policies, expected impact, political risks, and public governance and sustainability of the sector. The results found in order of preference are (i) Incentive program for equipment replacement; (ii) Community awareness program; (iii) EE Program with a greater focus on low income; (iv) Staggered and compulsory certification of social interest buildings; (v) Programs for the expansion of smart metering, energy monitoring and digitalization; (vi) Financing program for construction and retrofitting of houses with the emphasis on EE; (vii) Income tax deduction for investment in EE projects in low-income households made by companies; (viii) White certificates of energy for low-income. First, the policy of equipment substitution has been employed in Brazil and the world and has proven effective in promoting EE. For implementation, efforts are needed from the federal and state governments, which can encourage companies to reduce prices, and provide some type of aid for the purchase of such equipment. In second place is the community awareness program, promoting socio-educational actions on EE concepts and with energy conservation tips. This policy is simple to implement and has already been used by many distribution utilities in Brazil. It can be carried out through bids defined by the government in specific areas, being executed by third sector companies with public and private resources. Third on the list is the proposal to continue the Energy Efficiency Program (which obliges electric energy companies to allocate resources for research in the area) by suggesting the return of the mandatory investment of 60% of the resources in projects for low income. It is also relatively simple to implement, requiring efforts by the federal government to make it mandatory, and on the part of the distributors, compliance is needed. The success of the suggestions depends on changes in the established rules and efforts from the interested parties. For future work, we suggest the development of pilot projects in low-income communities in Brazil and the application of other multicriteria decision support methods to compare the results obtained in this study.

Keywords: energy efficiency, low-income community, public policy, multicriteria decision making

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4174 Empirical Roughness Progression Models of Heavy Duty Rural Pavements

Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
4173 Kinematic Analysis of Heel Height Effect on Knee Direction Correction in a Patient with Genu Recurvatum: A Case Study

Authors: Parya Salimitari, Farhad Tabatabai Ghomsheh, Siyamak Khorramymehr, Hossein Taghadosi, Mohammad Hossein Dashti

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of heel height on the knee joint direction in Genu recurvatum patients compared to normal state. The test was performed on a patient with Genu recurvatum and a healthy person with similar and match biomechanical conditions. Subjects were tested under six different positions of shoes with heels 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cm after marking during the gate. The results of the spatial temporal geometry obtained from Vicon Motion System (six-camera T10 model, Oxford Metrics Ltd., Oxford, UK), and were used to compute and analyze the kinematic results. In this study, we tried to determine the effect of shoe heel intervention on knee joint direction correction. The results indicate that the 1 cm heel has been optimized and significantly improved in knee joint flexion and flexion-extension angle so that the difference in knee flexion-extension angle between the patient and the healthy person at some stages of walking has reached zero (good posture). The 3 cm heel compared with the 0 cm heel has reduced the knee recurvatum index (KRI) by up to 21.74% in the patient (from 219.233 mm to 47.6714 mm). According to the findings of this study, it can be concluded that heel increase is effective in correcting knee joints in Genu recurvatum and the optimum heel height is 1 cm.

Keywords: joint alignment of knee, gait analysis, genu recurvatum, heel lift, kinematics, motion-analysis

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4172 Understanding Responses of the Bee Community to an Urbanizing Landscape in Bengaluru, South India

Authors: Chethana V. Casiker, Jagadishakumara B., Sunil G. M., Chaithra K., M. Soubadra Devy

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A majority of the world’s food crops depends on insects for pollination, among which bees are the most dominant taxon. Bees pollinate vegetables, fruits and oilseeds which are rich in essential micronutrients. Besides being a prerequisite for a nutritionally secure diet, agrarian economies such as India depend heavily on pollination for good yield and quality of the product. As cities all over the world expand rapidly, large tracts of green spaces are being built up. This, along with high usage of agricultural chemicals has reduced floral diversity and shrunk bee habitats. Indeed, pollinator decline is being reported from various parts of the world. Further, the FAO has reported a huge increase in the area of land under cultivation of pollinator-dependent crops. In the light of increasing demand for pollination and disappearing natural habitats, it is critical to understand whether and how urban spaces can support pollinators. To this end, this study investigates the influence of landscape and local habitat quality on bee community dynamics. To capture the dynamics of expanding cityscapes, the study employs a space for time substitution, wherein a transect along the gradient of urbanization substitutes a timeframe of increasing urbanization. This will help understand how pollinators would respond to changes induced by increasing intensity of urbanization in the future. Bengaluru, one of the fastest growing cities of Southern India, is an excellent site to study impacts associated with urbanization. With sites moving away from the Bengaluru’s centre and towards its peripheries, this study captures the changes in bee species diversity and richness along a gradient of urbanization. Bees were sampled under different land use types as well as in different types of vegetation, including plantations, croplands, fallow land, parks, lake embankments, and private gardens. The relationship between bee community metrics and key drivers such as a percentage of built-up area, land use practices, and floral resources was examined. Additionally, data collected using questionnaire interviews were used to understand people’s perceptions towards and level of dependence on pollinators. Our results showed that urban areas are capable of supporting bees. In fact, a greater diversity of bees was recorded in urban sites compared to adjoining rural areas. This suggests that bees are able to seek out patchy resources and survive in small fragments of habitat. Bee abundance and species richness correlated positively with floral abundance and richness, indicating the role of vegetation in providing forage and nesting sites which are crucial to their survival. Bee numbers were seen to decrease with increase in built-up area demonstrating that impervious surfaces could act as deterrents. Findings from this study challenge the popular notion of cities being biodiversity-bare spaces. There is indeed scope for conserving bees in urban landscapes, provided that there are city-scale planning and local initiative. Bee conservation can go hand in hand with efforts such as urban gardening and terrace farming that could help cities urbanize sustainably.

Keywords: bee, landscape ecology, urbanization, urban pollination

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4171 Learner's Difficulties Acquiring English: The Case of Native Speakers of Rio de La Plata Spanish Towards Justifying the Need for Corpora

Authors: Maria Zinnia Bardas Hoffmann

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Contrastive Analysis (CA) is the systematic comparison between two languages. It stems from the notion that errors are caused by interference of the L1 system in the acquisition process of an L2. CA represents a useful tool to understand the nature of learning and acquisition. Also, this particular method promises a path to un-derstand the nature of underlying cognitive processes, even when other factors such as intrinsic motivation and teaching strategies were found to best explain student’s problems in acquisition. CA study is justified not only from the need to get a deeper understanding of the nature of SLA, but as an invaluable source to provide clues, at a cognitive level, for those general processes involved in rule formation and abstract thought. It is relevant for cross disciplinary studies and the fields of Computational Thought, Natural Language processing, Applied Linguistics, Cognitive Linguistics and Math Theory. That being said, this paper intends to address here as well its own set of constraints and limitations. Finally, this paper: (a) aims at identifying some of the difficulties students may find in their learning process due to the nature of their specific variety of L1, Rio de la Plata Spanish (RPS), (b) represents an attempt to discuss the necessity for specific models to approach CA.

Keywords: second language acquisition, applied linguistics, contrastive analysis, applied contrastive analysis English language department, meta-linguistic rules, cross-linguistics studies, computational thought, natural language processing

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4170 Gas-Phase Noncovalent Functionalization of Pristine Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes with 3D Metal(II) Phthalocyanines

Authors: Vladimir A. Basiuk, Laura J. Flores-Sanchez, Victor Meza-Laguna, Jose O. Flores-Flores, Lauro Bucio-Galindo, Elena V. Basiuk

Abstract:

Noncovalent nanohybrid materials combining carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with phthalocyanines (Pcs) is a subject of increasing research effort, with a particular emphasis on the design of new heterogeneous catalysts, efficient organic photovoltaic cells, lithium batteries, gas sensors, field effect transistors, among other possible applications. The possibility of using unsubstituted Pcs for CNT functionalization is very attractive due to their very moderate cost and easy commercial availability. However, unfortunately, the deposition of unsubstituted Pcs onto nanotube sidewalls through the traditional liquid-phase protocols turns to be very problematic due to extremely poor solubility of Pcs. On the other hand, unsubstituted free-base H₂Pc phthalocyanine ligand, as well as many of its transition metal complexes, exhibit very high thermal stability and considerable volatility under reduced pressure, which opens the possibility for their physical vapor deposition onto solid surfaces, including nanotube sidewalls. In the present work, we show the possibility of simple, fast and efficient noncovalent functionalization of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) with a series of 3d metal(II) phthalocyanines Me(II)Pc, where Me= Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn. The functionalization can be performed in a temperature range of 400-500 °C under moderate vacuum and requires about 2-3 h only. The functionalized materials obtained were characterized by means of Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), Raman, UV-visible and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM and TEM, respectively) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). TGA suggested that Me(II)Pc weight content is 30%, 17% and 35% for NiPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively (CoPc exhibited anomalous thermal decomposition behavior). The above values are consistent with those estimated from EDS spectra, namely, of 24-39%, 27-36% and 27-44% for CoPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively. A strong increase in intensity of D band in the Raman spectra of SWNT‒Me(II)Pc hybrids, as compared to that of pristine nanotubes, implies very strong interactions between Pc molecules and SWNT sidewalls. Very high absolute values of binding energies of 32.46-37.12 kcal/mol and the highest occupied and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO and LUMO, respectively) distribution patterns, calculated with density functional theory by using Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof general gradient approximation correlation functional in combination with the Grimme’s empirical dispersion correction (PBE-D) and the double numerical basis set (DNP), also suggested that the interactions between Me(II) phthalocyanines and nanotube sidewalls are very strong. The authors thank the National Autonomous University of Mexico (grant DGAPA-IN200516) and the National Council of Science and Technology of Mexico (CONACYT, grant 250655) for financial support. The authors are also grateful to Dr. Natalia Alzate-Carvajal (CCADET of UNAM), Eréndira Martínez (IF of UNAM) and Iván Puente-Lee (Faculty of Chemistry of UNAM) for technical assistance with FTIR, TGA measurements, and TEM imaging, respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, functionalization, gas-phase, metal(II) phthalocyanines

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4169 International Indigenous Employment Empirical Research: A Community-Based Participatory Research Content Analysis

Authors: Melanie Grier, Adam Murry

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Objective: Worldwide, Indigenous Peoples experience underemployment and poverty at disproportionately higher rates than non-Indigenous people, despite similar rates of employment seeking. Euro-colonial conquest and genocidal assimilation policies are implicated as perpetuating poverty, which research consistently links to health and wellbeing disparities. Many of the contributors to poverty, such as inadequate income and lack of access to medical care, can be directly or indirectly linked to underemployment. Calls have been made to prioritize Indigenous perspectives in Industrial-Organizational (I/O) psychology research, yet the literature on Indigenous employment remains scarce. What does exist is disciplinarily diverse, topically scattered, and lacking evidence of community-based participatory research (CBPR) practices, a research project approach which prioritizes community leadership, partnership, and betterment and reduces the potential for harm. Due to the harmful colonial legacy of extractive scientific inquiry "on" rather than "with" Indigenous groups, Indigenous leaders and research funding agencies advocate for academic researchers to adopt reparative research methodologies such as CBPR to be used when studying issues pertaining to Indigenous Peoples or individuals. However, the frequency and consistency of CBPR implementation within scholarly discourse are unknown. Therefore, this project’s goal is two-fold: (1) to understand what comprises CBPR in Indigenous research and (2) to determine if CBPR has been historically used in Indigenous employment research. Method: Using a systematic literature review process, sixteen articles about CBPR use with Indigenous groups were selected, and content was analyzed to identify key components comprising CBPR usage. An Indigenous CBPR components framework was constructed and subsequently utilized to analyze the Indigenous employment empirical literature. A similar systematic literature review process was followed to search for relevant empirical articles on Indigenous employment. A total of 120 articles were identified in six global regions: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, America, the Pacific Islands, and Greenland/Norway. Each empirical study was procedurally examined and coded for criteria inclusion using content analysis directives. Results: Analysis revealed that, in total, CBPR elements were used 14% of the time in Indigenous employment research. Most studies (n=69; 58%) neglected to mention using any CBPR components, while just two studies discussed implementing all sixteen (2%). The most significant determinant of overall CBPR use was community member partnership (CP) in the research process. Studies from New Zealand were most likely to use CBPR components, followed by Canada, Australia, and America. While CBPR use did increase slowly over time, meaningful temporal trends were not found. Further, CBPR use did not directly correspond with the total number of topical articles published that year. Conclusions: Community-initiated and engaged research approaches must be better utilized in employment studies involving Indigenous Peoples. Future research efforts must be particularly attentive to community-driven objectives and research protocols, emphasizing specific areas of concern relevant to the field of I/O psychology, such as organizational support, recruitment, and selection.

Keywords: community-based participatory research, content analysis, employment, indigenous research, international, reconciliation, recruitment, reparative research, selection, systematic literature review

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4168 Evaluation of Ceres Wheat and Rice Model for Climatic Conditions in Haryana, India

Authors: Mamta Rana, K. K. Singh, Nisha Kumari

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The simulation models with its soil-weather-plant atmosphere interacting system are important tools for assessing the crops in changing climate conditions. The CERES-Wheat & Rice vs. 4.6 DSSAT was calibrated and evaluated for one of the major producers of wheat and rice state- Haryana, India. The simulation runs were made under irrigated conditions and three fertilizer applications dose of N-P-K to estimate crop yield and other growth parameters along with the phenological development of the crop. The genetic coefficients derived by iteratively manipulating the relevant coefficients that characterize the phenological process of wheat and rice crop to the best fit match between the simulated and observed anthesis, physological maturity and final grain yield. The model validated by plotting the simulated and remote sensing derived LAI. LAI product from remote sensing provides the edge of spatial, timely and accurate assessment of crop. For validating the yield and yield components, the error percentage between the observed and simulated data was calculated. The analysis shows that the model can be used to simulate crop yield and yield components for wheat and rice cultivar under different management practices. During the validation, the error percentage was less than 10%, indicating the utility of the calibrated model for climate risk assessment in the selected region.

Keywords: simulation model, CERES-wheat and rice model, crop yield, genetic coefficient

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4167 Vision-Based Daily Routine Recognition for Healthcare with Transfer Learning

Authors: Bruce X. B. Yu, Yan Liu, Keith C. C. Chan

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We propose to record Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) of elderly people using a vision-based system so as to provide better assistive and personalization technologies. Current ADL-related research is based on data collected with help from non-elderly subjects in laboratory environments and the activities performed are predetermined for the sole purpose of data collection. To obtain more realistic datasets for the application, we recorded ADLs for the elderly with data collected from real-world environment involving real elderly subjects. Motivated by the need to collect data for more effective research related to elderly care, we chose to collect data in the room of an elderly person. Specifically, we installed Kinect, a vision-based sensor on the ceiling, to capture the activities that the elderly subject performs in the morning every day. Based on the data, we identified 12 morning activities that the elderly person performs daily. To recognize these activities, we created a HARELCARE framework to investigate into the effectiveness of existing Human Activity Recognition (HAR) algorithms and propose the use of a transfer learning algorithm for HAR. We compared the performance, in terms of accuracy, and training progress. Although the collected dataset is relatively small, the proposed algorithm has a good potential to be applied to all daily routine activities for healthcare purposes such as evidence-based diagnosis and treatment.

Keywords: daily activity recognition, healthcare, IoT sensors, transfer learning

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4166 The Human Rights of Women in Brazilian Territory: A Literature Review of the Axes of the National Human Rights Program III

Authors: Ana Luiza Casasanta Garcia, Maria Del Carmen Cortizo

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From the classic contractualist and early declarations of modern rights, discussions on policies for the protection and promotion of human rights were highlighted in an attempt to ensure the realization of human dignity and its values, which are (re) negotiated according to the needs evidenced in each historical and contextual moment. Aiming at guaranteeing human rights to Brazilian citizens, created in 2009 and updated in 2010, the Third National Human Rights Program (PNDH III) in force highlights guidelines and recommendations to guarantee human rights, among them, to guarantee the rights of women in Brazil. Based on this document, this article aims to locate historically and culturally the understanding of human rights related to the rights of women in Brazilian territory, from the analysis of the guiding axes of women's rights of the PNDH III. In methodological terms, the qualitative approach and documentary research were used to analyze the data according to the critical discourse analysis. As a result, it has been found that the process of building and maintaining the guarantee of women's human rights needs a reformulation that also shows a social revolution. This is justified by the fact that even with the provision in the PNDH III that, in order to guarantee the rights of women, it is necessary, for example, to adapt the Penal Code to the decriminalization of abortion and the professionalization of prostitution, these points are still very controversial and are not put into practice by the State. Finally, the importance of the critique of politics and the current system of production of understandings in favor of this social transformation is emphasized.

Keywords: human rights of women, social transformation, national human rights program III, public politics

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4165 Effect of Different SE Diets on Blood SE, TAC Levels in Dairy Cattle and Their Newborn Calves

Authors: Moshfeghi Sogand

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Free radicals can be produced during the respiratory oxidation of different cells. These free radicals can damage to various macromolecules as protein ,fat, nucleic acids and … are harmful for body. The natural defence system that can prevent the damage of free radicals and nuteralized them , have tittled under the name total antioxidant capacity (TAC ). Se is one main antioxidant part in TAC , because it is one main part in structure of some body antioxidant enzymes such as GPX(glutathione peroxidase). Blood SE ,GPX and TAC probably can change by feeding of different selenium supplement diet in late pregnancy and also may transport from maternal blood to its fetus or by clostrum after calving. In this respect we have determined 100 pregnant dairy cattle (in the same condition of age , race and number of parturient) then devided them to 4 groups feed them in 3 last pregnancy months by different selenium diets. Group1:controle no se supplementation , group2: recived 0/3 ppm of the daily diet Saccharomyces Cervisiae . group3 :recived selenium _ rich yeast(containing200ppm selenium)was mixed with total daily ration fed. Group4: recived se _rich yeast(containing300 ppm selenium)was mixed with total daily ration fed. Then measured blood SE,GPX and TAC levels in them and in 3 days newborn calves after calving. The results were analysed by Tukey Anova test and the highest level of blood SE ,GPX and TAC was shown in cattle that feed fermented SE_yeast diet and in their 3 days newborn calves.

Keywords: SE, TAC, SE DIETS, FRAP

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4164 Shia School of Thought and the Experience of Political Order in Contemporary Era

Authors: Abdulvahab Forati

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Religious intellectualism is the only stream of consciousness in Iran that its religious theories formed Democracy. The theory of Religious intellectualism was utilized in Constitutional Revolution and Islamic Revolution. To instate Democracy in Iran, in compare with West and sunnis, the theory of Religious Intellectualism is being used differently. Unlike Democracy in the west that has started with the concept of Individualism and Natural Rights or in Sunni world that has started with the concept of consultation, it has started in Iran with mima-la-nas-fih (what we don’t have any proof for)or mantaqa-alfiraq-altashri’ (area of vacuum from reason). Shia scholars first acquainted with the concept of Democracy through theories of Sheikh Mortiza Ansari, and later some of his followers, including Akhund-e-khorasani and Mirzaye naeini, regarding Sheikh Ansari’s thoughts, began to analyze its Constitutional system and Democratic elements. But Imam Khomeini, the great founder of Islamic Republic of Iran, with respect to RAKHS (religious permission for having a choice)could make connection between Islam and Democracy. Instead of focusing on Civil contracts, he relied on Sirah Ughala (Tradition) and accepted many of the current conducts, e.g. Democracy and Political Parties and acknowledged the authority (Hujiat) of them even in absence of Infallibles. These two are the most notable experiences of shia political thoughts about Democracy within the last 100 years. In this article, the author tries to explain the second experience in Imam Khomeini’s thoughts and Sirah.

Keywords: Shia school, Islamic revolution, democracy, political order

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4163 Advanced Combinatorial Method for Solving Complex Fault Trees

Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

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Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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4162 Stent Surface Functionalisation via Plasma Treatment to Promote Fast Endothelialisation

Authors: Irene Carmagnola, Valeria Chiono, Sandra Pacharra, Jochen Salber, Sean McMahon, Chris Lovell, Pooja Basnett, Barbara Lukasiewicz, Ipsita Roy, Xiang Zhang, Gianluca Ciardelli

Abstract:

Thrombosis and restenosis after stenting procedure can be prevented by promoting fast stent wall endothelialisation. It is well known that surface functionalisation with antifouling molecules combining with extracellular matrix proteins is a promising strategy to design biomimetic surfaces able to promote fast endothelialization. In particular, REDV has gained much attention for the ability to enhance rapid endothelialization due to its specific affinity with endothelial cells (ECs). In this work, a two-step plasma treatment was performed to polymerize a thin layer of acrylic acid, used to subsequently graft PEGylated-REDV and polyethylene glycol (PEG) at different molar ratio with the aim to selectively promote endothelial cell adhesion avoiding platelet activation. PEGylate-REDV was provided by Biomatik and it is formed by 6 PEG monomer repetitions (Chempep Inc.), with an NH2 terminal group. PEG polymers were purchased from Chempep Inc. with two different chain lengths: m-PEG6-NH2 (295.4 Da) with 6 monomer repetitions and m-PEG12-NH2 (559.7 Da) with 12 monomer repetitions. Plasma activation was obtained by operating at 50W power, 5 min of treatment and at an Ar flow rate of 20 sccm. Pure acrylic acid (99%, AAc) vapors were diluted in Ar (flow = 20 sccm) and polymerized by a pulsed plasma discharge applying a discharge RF power of 200 W, a duty cycle of 10% (on time = 10 ms, off time = 90 ms) for 10 min. After plasma treatment, samples were dipped into an 1-(3-dimethylaminopropyl)-3- ethylcarbodiimide (EDC)/N-hydroxysuccinimide (NHS) solution (ratio 4:1, pH 5.5) for 1 h at 4°C and subsequently dipped in PEGylate-REDV and PEGylate-REDV:PEG solutions at different molar ratio (100 μg/mL in PBS) for 20 h at room temperature. Surface modification was characterized through physico-chemical analyses and in vitro cell tests. PEGylated-REDV peptide and PEG were successfully bound to the carboxylic groups that are formed on the polymer surface after plasma reaction. FTIR-ATR spectroscopy, X -ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and contact angle measurement gave a clear indication of the presence of the grafted molecules. The use of PEG as a spacer allowed for an increase in wettability of the surface, and the effect was more evident by increasing the amount of PEG. Endothelial cells adhered and spread well on the surfaces functionalized with the REDV sequence. In conclusion, a selective coating able to promote a new endothelial cell layer on polymeric stent surface was developed. In particular, a thin AAc film was polymerised on the polymeric surface in order to expose –COOH groups, and PEGylate-REDV and PEG were successful grafted on the polymeric substrates. The REDV peptide demonstrated to encourage cell adhesion with a consequent, expected improvement of the hemocompatibility of these polymeric surfaces in vivo. Acknowledgements— This work was funded by the European Commission 7th Framework Programme under grant agreement number 604251- ReBioStent (Reinforced Bioresorbable Biomaterials for Therapeutic Drug Eluting Stents). The authors thank all the ReBioStent partners for their support in this work.

Keywords: endothelialisation, plasma treatment, stent, surface functionalisation

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4161 The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Social Activities and Residential Areas

Authors: Asghar Motea Noparvar

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According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which has been characterized as a pandemic since December 2019, is attacking societies in terms of different ways. It means that this is much more than a crisis that is related to human health. It is a human, economic and social crisis. Since December 2019, not only some significant transformations have happened in human life, but also there has been some mental health, daily life activities, and even urban space changes. The purpose of this study is to mention some tangible transformations in society by applying two main restrictions such as “lock down” and “social distancing,” and how people took refuge in their homes and fit every activity there. How this pandemic has been transforming human life and social activities is the main issue of this study. In order to gather the information, review the impacts of COVID-19 on social life by revising the literature and considering the “Risk Society” theory, which is gotten credited by a German sociologist, Ulrich Beck. Additionally, COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also had significant impacts on the economy, education, tourism, the environment, and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. In this study, the main focused point is the transformation of activities and residential areas. In order to achieve this finding, the literature review is analyzed in the case of COVID-19 and its impacts on social life. To sum up, it can be concluded that a pandemic can change social life along with other transformations that it is able to do.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, social activities, residential areas, transformation

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4160 Predictive Analytics for Theory Building

Authors: Ho-Won Jung, Donghun Lee, Hyung-Jin Kim

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Predictive analytics (data analysis) uses a subset of measurements (the features, predictor, or independent variable) to predict another measurement (the outcome, target, or dependent variable) on a single person or unit. It applies empirical methods in statistics, operations research, and machine learning to predict the future, or otherwise unknown events or outcome on a single or person or unit, based on patterns in data. Most analyses of metabolic syndrome are not predictive analytics but statistical explanatory studies that build a proposed model (theory building) and then validate metabolic syndrome predictors hypothesized (theory testing). A proposed theoretical model forms with causal hypotheses that specify how and why certain empirical phenomena occur. Predictive analytics and explanatory modeling have their own territories in analysis. However, predictive analytics can perform vital roles in explanatory studies, i.e., scientific activities such as theory building, theory testing, and relevance assessment. In the context, this study is to demonstrate how to use our predictive analytics to support theory building (i.e., hypothesis generation). For the purpose, this study utilized a big data predictive analytics platform TM based on a co-occurrence graph. The co-occurrence graph is depicted with nodes (e.g., items in a basket) and arcs (direct connections between two nodes), where items in a basket are fully connected. A cluster is a collection of fully connected items, where the specific group of items has co-occurred in several rows in a data set. Clusters can be ranked using importance metrics, such as node size (number of items), frequency, surprise (observed frequency vs. expected), among others. The size of a graph can be represented by the numbers of nodes and arcs. Since the size of a co-occurrence graph does not depend directly on the number of observations (transactions), huge amounts of transactions can be represented and processed efficiently. For a demonstration, a total of 13,254 metabolic syndrome training data is plugged into the analytics platform to generate rules (potential hypotheses). Each observation includes 31 predictors, for example, associated with sociodemographic, habits, and activities. Some are intentionally included to get predictive analytics insights on variable selection such as cancer examination, house type, and vaccination. The platform automatically generates plausible hypotheses (rules) without statistical modeling. Then the rules are validated with an external testing dataset including 4,090 observations. Results as a kind of inductive reasoning show potential hypotheses extracted as a set of association rules. Most statistical models generate just one estimated equation. On the other hand, a set of rules (many estimated equations from a statistical perspective) in this study may imply heterogeneity in a population (i.e., different subpopulations with unique features are aggregated). Next step of theory development, i.e., theory testing, statistically tests whether a proposed theoretical model is a plausible explanation of a phenomenon interested in. If hypotheses generated are tested statistically with several thousand observations, most of the variables will become significant as the p-values approach zero. Thus, theory validation needs statistical methods utilizing a part of observations such as bootstrap resampling with an appropriate sample size.

Keywords: explanatory modeling, metabolic syndrome, predictive analytics, theory building

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