Search results for: wheat yield prediction

Authors: Iris Vural Gursel, Jonathan Moncada, Ernst Worrell, Andrea Ramirez

Abstract:

In order to achieve the transition from a fossil to bio-based economy, biomass needs to replace fossil resources in meeting the world’s energy and chemical needs. This calls for development of biorefinery systems allowing cost-efficient conversion of biomass to chemicals. In biorefinery systems, feedstock is converted to key intermediates called platforms which are converted to wide range of marketable products. The C6 sugars platform stands out due to its unique versatility as precursor for multiple valuable products. Among the different potential routes from C6 sugars to bio-based chemicals, 1,3-butadiene and ε-caprolactam appear to be of great interest. Butadiene is an important chemical for the production of synthetic rubbers, while caprolactam is used in production of nylon-6. In this study, ex-ante techno-economic performance of 1,3-butadiene and ε-caprolactam routes from C6 sugars were assessed. The aim is to provide insight from an early stage of development into the potential of these new technologies, and the bottlenecks and key cost-drivers. Two cases for each product line were analyzed to take into consideration the effect of possible changes on the overall performance of both butadiene and caprolactam production. Conceptual process design for the processes was developed using Aspen Plus based on currently available data from laboratory experiments. Then, operating and capital costs were estimated and an economic assessment was carried out using Net Present Value (NPV) as indicator. Finally, sensitivity analyses on processing capacity and prices was done to take into account possible variations. Results indicate that both processes perform similarly from an energy intensity point of view ranging between 34-50 MJ per kg of main product. However, in terms of processing yield (kg of product per kg of C6 sugar), caprolactam shows higher yield by a factor 1.6-3.6 compared to butadiene. For butadiene production, with the economic parameters used in this study, for both cases studied, a negative NPV (-642 and -647 M€) was attained indicating economic infeasibility. For the caprolactam production, one of the cases also showed economic infeasibility (-229 M€), but the case with the higher caprolactam yield resulted in a positive NPV (67 M€). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the economic performance of caprolactam production can be improved with the increase in capacity (higher C6 sugars intake) reflecting benefits of the economies of scale. Furthermore, humins valorization for heat and power production was considered and found to have a positive effect. Butadiene production was found sensitive to the price of feedstock C6 sugars and product butadiene. However, even at 100% variation of the two parameters, butadiene production remained economically infeasible. Overall, the caprolactam production line shows higher economic potential in comparison to that of butadiene. The results are useful in guiding experimental research and providing direction for further development of bio-based chemicals.

Keywords: bio-based chemicals, biorefinery, C6 sugars, economic analysis, process modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

Abstract:

The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D^-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, TRMM, slope, inventory, early warning system

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

Abstract:

Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Leo Paul Vaurs, Sonia Heaven, Charles Banks

Abstract:

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a virtually unlimited source of lignocellulosic material in the form of a waste paper/cardboard mixture which can be converted into fermentable sugars via cellulolytic enzyme hydrolysis in a biorefinery. The extraction of the lignocellulosic fraction and its preparation, however, are energy and water demanding processes. The waste water generated is a rich organic liquor with a high Chemical Oxygen Demand that can be partially cleaned while generating biogas in an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket bioreactor and be further re-used in the process. In this work, an experiment was designed to determine the critical contaminant concentrations in water affecting either anaerobic digestion or enzymatic hydrolysis by simulating multiple water re-circulations. It was found that re-using more than 16.5 times the same water could decrease the hydrolysis yield by up to 65 % and led to a complete granules desegregation. Due to the complexity of the water stream, the contaminant(s) responsible for the performance decrease could not be identified but it was suspected to be caused by sodium, potassium, lipid accumulation for the anaerobic digestion (AD) process and heavy metal build-up for enzymatic hydrolysis. The experimental data were incorporated into a Water Pinch technology based model that was used to optimize the water re-utilization in the modelled system to reduce fresh water requirement and wastewater generation while ensuring all processes performed at optimal level. Multiple scenarios were modelled in which sub-process requirements were evaluated in term of importance, operational costs and impact on the CAPEX. The best compromise between water usage, AD and enzymatic hydrolysis yield was determined for each assumed contaminant degradations by anaerobic granules. Results from the model will be used to build the first MSW based biorefinery in the USA.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, enzymatic hydrolysis, municipal solid waste, water optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Austin Belfiori, Kevin Rinek, Zach Barcroft, Jennifer Berglind

Abstract:

Diet influences the composition of the gut microbiota and host's health. Disruption of the balance among the microbiota, epithelial cells, and resident immune cells in the intestine is involved in the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). To study the role of gut microbiota in intestinal inflammation, the microbiome of control mice (C57BL6) given a gluten-containing standard diet versus C57BL6 mice given the gluten-free (GF) feed (n=10 in each group) was examined. All mice received the 3% DSS for 5 days. Throughout the study, feces were collected and processed for DNA extraction and MiSeq Illumina sequencing of V4 region of bacterial 16S rRNA gene. Alpha and beta diversities and compositional differences at phylum and genus levels were determined in intestinal microbiota. The mice receiving the GF diet showed a significantly increased abundance of Firmicutes and a decrease of Bacteroides and Lactobacillus at phylum level. Therefore, the gluten free diet led to reductions in beneficial gut bacteria populations. These findings indicate a role of wheat gluten in dysbiosis of the intestinal microbiota.

Keywords: gluten, colitis, microbiota, DSS, dextran sulphate sodium

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Eric Sitorus, Septian Prahastudhi, Turgod Nainggolan, Erwin Riyanto

Abstract:

Mining by block or panel caving is a mining method that takes advantage of fractures within an ore body, coupled with gravity, to extract material from a predetermined column of ore. The caving column is weakened from beneath through the use of undercutting, after which the ore breaks up and is extracted from below in a continuous cycle. The nature of this method induces cyclical stresses on the pillars of excavations as stress is built up and released over time, which has a detrimental effect on both the installed ground support and the rock mass itself. Ground support capacity, especially on the production where excavation void ratio is highest, is subjected to heavy loading. Strain above threshold of the elongation of support capacity can yield resulting in damage to excavations. Geotechnical engineers must evaluate not only the remnant capacity of ground support systems but also investigate depth of rock mass yield within pillars, backs and floors. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is a geophysical method that has the ability to evaluate rock mass damage using electromagnetic waves. This paper illustrates a case study from the Grasberg mining complex where non-invasive information on the depth of damage and condition of the remaining rock mass was required. GPR with 100 MHz antenna resolution was used to obtain images of the subsurface to determine rehabilitation requirements prior to recommencing production activities. The GPR surveys were used to calibrate the reflection coefficient response of varying rock mass conditions to known Rock Quality Designation (RQD) parameters observed at the mine. The calibrated GPR survey allowed site engineers to map subsurface conditions and plan rehabilitation accordingly.

Keywords: block caving, ground penetrating radar, reflectivity, RQD

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Anton G. Kalmykov, Andrew Yu. Bychkov, Georgy A. Kalmykov

Abstract:

Nowadays, most oil reserves in Russia and all over the world are hard to recover. That is the reason oil companies are searching for new sources for hydrocarbon production. One of the sources might be high-carbon formations with unconventional reservoirs. Bazhenov formation is a huge source rock formation located in West Siberia, which contains unconventional reservoirs on some of the areas. These reservoirs are formed by secondary processes with low predicting ratio. Only one of five wells is drilled through unconventional reservoirs, in others kerogen has low thermal maturity, and they are of low petroliferous. Therefore, there was a request for tertiary methods for in-situ cracking of kerogen and production of oil. Laboratory experiments of Bazhenov formation rock hydrous pyrolysis were used to investigate features of the oil generation process. Experiments on Bazhenov rocks with a different mineral composition (silica concentration from 15 to 90 wt.%, clays – 5-50 wt.%, carbonates – 0-30 wt.%, kerogen – 1-25 wt.%) and thermal maturity (from immature to late oil window kerogen) were performed in a retort under reservoir conditions. Rock samples of 50 g weight were placed in retort, covered with water and heated to the different temperature varied from 250 to 400°C with the durability of the experiments from several hours to one week. After the experiments, the retort was cooled to room temperature; generated hydrocarbons were extracted with hexane, then separated from the solvent and weighted. The molecular composition of this synthesized oil was then investigated via GC-MS chromatography Characteristics of rock samples after the heating was measured via the Rock-Eval method. It was found, that the amount of synthesized oil and its composition depending on the experimental conditions and composition of rocks. The highest amount of oil was produced at a temperature of 350°C after 12 hours of heating and was up to 12 wt.% of initial organic matter content in the rocks. At the higher temperatures and within longer heating time secondary cracking of generated hydrocarbons occurs, the mass of produced oil is lowering, and the composition contains more hydrocarbons that need to be recovered by catalytical processes. If the temperature is lower than 300°C, the amount of produced oil is too low for the process to be economically effective. It was also found that silica and clay minerals work as catalysts. Selection of heating conditions allows producing synthesized oil with specified composition. Kerogen investigations after heating have shown that thermal maturity increases, but the yield is only up to 35% of the maximum amount of synthetic oil. This yield is the result of gaseous hydrocarbons formation due to secondary cracking and aromatization and coaling of kerogen. Future investigations will allow the increase in the yield of synthetic oil. The results are in a good agreement with theoretical data on kerogen maturation during oil production. Evaluated trends could be tooled up for in-situ oil generation by shale rocks thermal action.

Keywords: Bazhenov formation, fossil fuels, hydropyrolysis, synthetic oil

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Wu Peng, Anders Liljerehn, Martin Magnevall

Abstract:

In metal cutting, tool wear gradually changes the micro geometry of the cutting edge. Today there is a significant gap in understanding the impact these geometrical changes have on the cutting forces which governs tool deflection and heat generation in the cutting zone. Accurate models and understanding of the interaction between the work piece and cutting tool leads to improved accuracy in simulation of the cutting process. These simulations are useful in several application areas, e.g., optimization of insert geometry and machine tool monitoring. This study aims to develop an extended Kienzle force model to account for the effect of rake angle variations and tool flank wear have on the cutting forces. In this paper, the starting point sets from cutting force measurements using orthogonal turning tests of pre-machined flanches with well-defined width, using triangular coated inserts to assure orthogonal condition. The cutting forces have been measured by dynamometer with a set of three different rake angles, and wear progression have been monitored during machining by an optical measuring collaborative robot. The method utilizes the measured cutting forces with the inserts flank wear progression to extend the mechanistic cutting forces model with flank wear as an input parameter. The adapted cutting forces model is validated in a turning process with commercial cutting tools. This adapted cutting forces model shows the significant capability of prediction of cutting forces accounting for tools flank wear and different-rake-angle cutting tool inserts. The result of this study suggests that the nonlinear effect of tools flank wear and interaction between the work piece and the cutting tool can be considered by the developed cutting forces model.

Keywords: cutting force, kienzle model, predictive model, tool flank wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Rishi Agarwal

Abstract:

Digital twins are emerging as a strong technology used to imitate and monitor physical objects digitally in real time across sectors. It is not only dealing with the digital space, but it is also actuating responses in the physical space in response to the digital space processing like storage, modeling, learning, simulation, and prediction. This paper explores the application of digital twins for enhancing physical security in retail stores. The retail sector still relies on outdated physical security practices like manual monitoring and metal detectors, which are insufficient for modern needs. There is a lack of real-time data and system integration, leading to ineffective emergency response and preventative measures. As retail automation increases, new digital frameworks must control safety without human intervention. To address this, the paper proposes implementing an intelligent digital twin framework. This collects diverse data streams from in-store sensors, surveillance, external sources, and customer devices and then Advanced analytics and simulations enable real-time monitoring, incident prediction, automated emergency procedures, and stakeholder coordination. Overall, the digital twin improves physical security through automation, adaptability, and comprehensive data sharing. The paper also analyzes the pros and cons of implementation of this technology through an Emerging Technology Analysis Canvas that analyzes different aspects of this technology through both narrow and wide lenses to help decision makers in their decision of implementing this technology. On a broader scale, this showcases the value of digital twins in transforming legacy systems across sectors and how data sharing can create a safer world for both retail store customers and owners.

Keywords: digital twin, retail store safety, digital twin in retail, digital twin for physical safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Xinyu Wei, Mingming Peng, Kenji Kamiya, Eika Qian

Abstract:

Iso-stearic acid as a saturated fatty acid with a branched chain shows a low pour point, high oxidative stability and great biodegradability. The industrial production of iso-stearic acid involves first isomerizing unsaturated fatty acids into branched-chain unsaturated fatty acids (BUFAs), followed by hydrogenating the branched-chain unsaturated fatty acids to obtain iso-stearic acid. However, the production yield of iso-stearic acid is reportedly less than 30%. In recent decades, extensive research has been conducted on branched fatty acids. Most research has replaced acidic clays with zeolites due to their high selectivity, good thermal stability, and renewability. It was reported that isomerization of unsaturated fatty acid occurred mainly inside the zeolite channel. In contrast, the production of by-products like dimer acid mainly occurs at acid sites outside the surface of zeolite. Further, the deactivation of catalysts is attributed to the pore blockage of zeolite. In the present study, micro/mesoporous ZSM-22 zeolites were developed. It is clear that the synthesis of a micro/mesoporous ZSM-22 zeolite is regarded as the ideal strategy owing to its ability to minimize coke formation. Different mesoporosities micro/mesoporous H-ZSM-22 zeolites were prepared through recrystallization of ZSM-22 using sodium hydroxide solution (0.2-1M) with cetyltrimethylammonium bromide template (CTAB). The structure, morphology, porosity, acidity, and isomerization performance of the prepared catalysts were characterized and evaluated. The dissolution and recrystallization process of the H-ZSM-22 microporous zeolite led to the formation of approximately 4 nm-sized mesoporous channels on the outer surface of the microporous zeolite, resulting in a micro/mesoporous material. This process increased the weak Brønsted acid sites at the pore mouth while reducing the total number of acid sites in ZSM-22. Finally, an activity test was conducted using oleic acid as a model compound in a fixed-bed reactor. The activity test results revealed that micro/mesoporous H-ZSM-22 zeolites exhibited a high isomerization activity, reaching >70% selectivity and >50% yield of BUFAs. Furthermore, the yield of oligomers was limited to less than 20%. This demonstrates that the presence of mesopores in ZSM-22 enhances contact between the feedstock and the active sites within the catalyst, thereby increasing catalyst activity. Additionally, a portion of the dissolved and recrystallized silica adhered to the catalyst's surface, covering the surface-active sites, which reduced the formation of oligomers. This study offers distinct insights into the production of iso-stearic acid using a fixed-bed reactor, paving the way for future research in this area.

Keywords: Iso-stearic acid, oleic acid, skeletal isomerization, micro/mesoporous, ZSM-22

Procedia PDF Downloads 21

Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

Abstract:

Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Elif Aykin Dincer, Ozlem Kilic, Busra F. Bilgic, Mustafa Erbas

Abstract:

Stale breads and rusk flour are used traditionally in meatballs produced in Turkey as a structure enhancer. This study researches the possibilities of using retrograded wheat flour in the meatball production and compares the physical and sensorial characteristics of these meatballs with stale bread (traditional) and rusk (commercial) used meatballs. The cooking loss of meatballs produced with using retrograded flour was similar to that of commercial meatballs. These meatballs have an advantage with respect to cooking loss compared to traditional meatballs. Doses of retrograded flour from 5% to 20% led to a significant decrease in cooking loss, from 21.95% to 6.19%, and in the diameter of meatballs, from 18.60% to 12.74%, but to an increase in the thickness of meatballs, from 28.82% to 41.39%, respectively, compared to the control (0%). The springiness of the traditional meatballs was significantly higher than that of the other meatballs. This might have been due to the bread crumbs having a naturally springy structure. Moreover, the addition of retrograded flour in the meatballs significantly (P<0.05) affected the hardness, springiness and cohesiveness of the meatballs with respect to textural properties. In conclusion, it is considered that the use of 10% retrograded flour is ideal to improve the sensorial values of meatballs and the properties of their structure.

Keywords: cooking loss, flour, hardness, meatball, sensorial characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Takuro Kida, Yuichi Kida

Abstract:

We show a base of the new trend of algorithm mathematically that treats a historical reason of continuous discrimination in the world as well as its solution by introducing new concepts of parallel world that includes an invisible set of errors as its companion. With respect to a matrix operator-filter bank that the matrix operator-analysis-filter bank H and the matrix operator-sampling-filter bank S are given, firstly, we introduce the detailed algorithm to derive the optimum matrix operator-synthesis-filter bank Z that minimizes all the worst-case measures of the matrix operator-error-signals E(ω) = F(ω) − Y(ω) between the matrix operator-input-signals F(ω) and the matrix operator-output signals Y(ω) of the matrix operator-filter bank at the same time. Further, feedback is introduced to the above approximation theory and it is indicated that introducing conversations with feedback does not superior automatically to the accumulation of existing knowledge of signal prediction. Secondly, the concept of category in the field of mathematics is applied to the above optimum signal approximation and is indicated that the category-based approximation theory is applied to the set-theoretic consideration of the recognition of humans. Based on this discussion, it is shown naturally why the narrow perception that tends to create isolation shows an apparent advantage in the short term and, often, why such narrow thinking becomes intimate with discriminatory action in a human group. Throughout these considerations, it is presented that, in order to abolish easy and intimate discriminatory behavior, it is important to create a parallel world of conception where we share the set of invisible error signals, including the words and the consciousness of both worlds.

Keywords: signal prediction, pseudo inverse matrix, artificial intelligence, conditional optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Mehdi Sheikhi, Marjan Nassiri-Asl, Esmail Abbasi, Mahsa Shafiee

Abstract:

Various synthetic derivatives of natural flavonoids are known to have neuroactive properties. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of vitexin (5, 7, 4-trihydroxyflavone-8-glucoside), a flavonoid found in such plants as tartary buckwheat sprouts, wheat leaves phenolome, Mimosa pudica Linn and Passiflora spp, on scopolamine-induced memory impairment in rats. To achieve this goal, we assessed the effects of vitexin on memory retrieval in the presence or absence of scopolamine using a step-through passive avoidance trial. In the first part of the study, vitexin (25, 50, and 100 μM) was administered intracerebroventricularly (i.c.v.) before acquisition trials. In the second part, vitexin, at the same doses, was administered before scopolamine (10 μg, i.c.v.) and before the acquisition trials. During retention tests, vitexin (100 μM) in the absence of scopolamine significantly increased the stepthrough latencies compared to scopolamine. In addition, vitexin (100 μM) significantly reversed the shorter step-through latencies induced by scopolamine (P < 0.05). These results indicate that vitexin has a potential role in enhancing memory retrieval. A possible mechanism is modulation of cholinergic receptors; however, other mechanisms may be involved in its effects in acute exposure.

Keywords: flavonoid, memory retrieval, passive avoidance, scopolamine, vitexin

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Vishnu Nagendra, Marten Van Der Veen, Stefania Giodini

Abstract:

Effective humanitarian logistics operations are a cornerstone in the success of disaster relief operations. However, for effectiveness, they need to be demand driven and supported by adequate data for prioritization. Without this data operations are carried out in an ad hoc manner and eventually become chaotic. The current availability of geospatial data helps in creating models for predictive damage and vulnerability assessment, which can be of great advantage to logisticians to gain an understanding on the nature and extent of the disaster damage. This translates into actionable information on the demand for relief goods, the state of the transport infrastructure and subsequently the priority areas for relief delivery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of disasters, the accuracy in the models need improvement which can be done using remote sensing data from UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) or satellite imagery, which again come with certain limitations. This research addresses the need for a framework to combine data from different sources to support humanitarian logistic operations and prediction models. The focus is on developing a workflow to combine data from satellites and UAVs post a disaster strike. A three-step approach is followed: first, the data requirements for logistics activities are made explicit, which is done by carrying out semi-structured interviews with on field logistics workers. Second, the limitations in current data collection tools are analyzed to develop workaround solutions by following a systems design approach. Third, the data requirements and the developed workaround solutions are fit together towards a coherent workflow. The outcome of this research will provide a new method for logisticians to have immediately accurate and reliable data to support data-driven decision making.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicles, damage prediction models, remote sensing, data driven decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Natalia Feruleva

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Sreejani Barua, P. P. Srivastav

Abstract:

Formulation of new functional food products for diabetes patients and obsessed people is a challenge for food industries till date. Starch is a certainly happening, ecological, reasonable and profusely obtainable polysaccharide in plant material. In the present scenario, there is a great interest in modifying starch functional properties without destroying its granular structure using different modification techniques. Resistant starch (RS) contains almost zero calories and can control blood glucose level to prevent diabetes. The current study focused on modification of mung bean starch which is a good source of legumes carbohydrate for the production of functional food. Heat moisture treatment (HMT) of mung starch was conducted at moisture content of 10-30%, temperature of 80-120 °C and time of 8-24 h.The content of resistant starch after modification was significantly increased from native starches containing RS 7.6%. The design combinations of HMT had been completed through Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD). The effects of HMT process variables on the yield of resistant starch was studied through Rapid Surface Methodology (RSM). The highest increase of resistant starch was found up to 34.39% when treated the native starch with 30% m.c at 120 °C temperature for 24 h.The functional properties of both native and modified mung bean starches showed that there was a reduction in the swelling power and swelling volume of HMT starches. However, the solubility of the HMT starches was higher than that of untreated native starch and also observed change in structural (scanning electron microscopy), X-Ray diffraction (XRD) pattern, blue value and thermal (differential scanning calorimetry) properties. Therefore, replacing native mung bean starch with heat-moisture treated mung bean starch leads to the development of new products with higher resistant starch levels and functional properties.

Keywords: Mung bean starch, heat moisture treatment, functional properties, resistant starch

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Mohamed Fawzy Elzarei, Yousef Mohammed Al-Dakheel, Ali Mohamed Alseaf

Abstract:

Modern molecular techniques, like single marker analysis for linked traits to these markers, can provide us with rapid and accurate genetic results. In the last two decades of the last century, the applications of molecular techniques were reached a faraway point in cattle, sheep, and pig. In goats, especially in our region, the application of molecular techniques is still far from other species. As reported by many researchers, microsatellites marker is one of the suitable markers for lie studies. The single marker linked to traits of interest is one technique allowed us to early select animals without the necessity for mapping the entire genome. Simplicity, applicability, and low cost of this technique gave this technique a wide range of applications in many areas of genetics and molecular biology. Also, this technique provides a useful approach for evaluating genetic differentiation, particularly in populations that are poorly known genetically. The expected breeding value (EBV) and yield deviation (YD) are considered as the most parameters used for studying the linkage between quantitative characteristics and molecular markers, since these values are raw data corrected for the non-genetic factors. A total of 17 microsatellites markers (from chromosomes 6, 14, 18, 20 and 23) were used in this study to search for areas that could be responsible for genetic variability for some milk traits and search of chromosomal regions that explain part of the phenotypic variance. Results of single-marker analyses were used to identify the linkage between microsatellite markers and variation in EBVs of these traits, Milk yield, Protein percentage, Fat percentage, Litter size and weight at birth, and litter size and weight at weaning. The estimates of the parameters from forward and backward solutions using stepwise regression procedure on milk yield trait, only two markers, OARCP9 and AGLA29, showed a highly significant effect (p≤0.01) in backward and forward solutions. The forward solution for different equations conducted that R2 of these equations were highly depending on only two partials regressions coefficient (βi,) for these markers. For the milk protein trait, four marker showed significant effect BMS2361, CSSM66 (p≤0.01), BMS2626, and OARCP9 (p≤0.05). By the other way, four markers (MCM147, BM1225, INRA006, andINRA133) showed highly significant effect (p≤0.01) in both backward and forward solutions in association with milk fat trait. For both litter size at birth and at weaning traits, only one marker (BM143(p≤0.01) and RJH1 (p≤0.05), respectively) showed a significant effect in backward and forward solutions. The estimates of the parameters from forward and backward solution using stepwise regression procedure on litter weight at birth (LWB) trait only one marker (MCM147) showed highly significant effect (p≤0.01) and two marker (ILSTS011, CSSM66) showed a significant effect (p≤0.05) in backward and forward solutions.

Keywords: microsatellites marker, estimated breeding value, stepwise regression, milk traits

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Shirin Ghatrehsamani

Abstract:

Higher efficiency and lower environmental impact are the consequence of using advanced technology in farming. They also help to decrease yield variability by diminishing weather variability impact, optimizing nutrient and pest management as well as reducing competition from weeds. A better understanding of the pros and cons of applying technology and finding the main reason for preventing the utilization of the technology has a significant impact on developing technology adoption among farmers and producers in the digital agriculture era. The results from two surveys carried out in 2019 and 2021 were used to investigate whether the crop types had an impact on the willingness to utilize technology on the farms. The main focus of the questionnaire was on utilizing precision agriculture (PA) technologies among farmers in some parts of the united states. Collected data was analyzed to determine the practical application of various technologies. The survey results showed more similarities in the main reason not to use PA between the two crop types, but the present application of using technology in specialty crops is generally five times larger than in row crops. GPS receiver applications were reported similar for both types of crops. Lack of knowledge and high cost of data handling were cited as the main problems. The most significant difference was among using variable rate technology, which was 43% for specialty crops while was reported 0% for row crops. Pest scouting and mapping were commonly used for specialty crops, while they were rarely applied for row crops. Survey respondents found yield mapping, soil sampling map, and irrigation scheduling were more valuable for specialty crops than row crops in management decisions. About 50% of the respondents would like to share the PA data in both types of crops. Almost 50 % of respondents got their PA information from retailers in both categories, and as the second source, using extension agents were more common in specialty crops than row crops.

Keywords: precision agriculture, smart farming, digital agriculture, technology adoption

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Kibrom Hadush

Abstract:

Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Kübra Aktaş, Nermin Bilgiçli, Tayyibe Erten, Perihan Kübra Çiçek

Abstract:

In this research, different wheat-legume flour blends were used in Turkish noodle preparation with the aid of some gums (xanthan and guar). Chickpea, common bean and soy flours were used in noodle formulation at 20% level with and without gum (1%) addition. Some physical, chemical and sensory properties of noodles were determined. Water uptake, volume increase and cooking loss values of the noodles changed between 92.03-116.37%, 125.0-187.23% and 4.88-8.10%, respectively. Xanthan or guar gam addition decreased cooking loss values of legume fortified noodles. Both legume flour and gum addition significantly (p<0.05) affected the color values of the noodles. The lowest lightness (L*), redness (a*) and the highest yellowness (b*) values were obtained with soy flour usage in noodle formulation. Protein and ash values of noodles ranged between 15.14 and 21.82%; 1.62 and 2.50%, respectively, and the highest values were obtained with soy flour usage in noodle formulation. As a result of sensory evaluation, noodles containing chickpea flour and guar gum were rated with higher taste, odor, appearance and texture scores compared to other noodle samples.

Keywords: noodle, legume, soy, chickpea, common bean, gum

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: S. Rashmi, Devashish Das, N. Spoorthi, H. V. Manasa

Abstract:

Energy is essential and plays an important role for overall development of a nation. The global economy literally runs on energy. The use of fossil fuels as energy is now widely accepted as unsustainable due to depleting resources and also due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the environment, renewable and carbon neutral biodiesel are necessary for environment and economic sustainability. Unfortunately biodiesel produced from oil crop, waste cooking oil and animal fats are not able to replace fossil fuel. Fossil fuels remain the dominant source of primary energy, accounting for 84% of the overall increase in demand. Today biodiesel has come to mean a very specific chemical modification of natural oils. Objectives: To produce biodiesel from yellow oleander seed oil, to test the yield of biodiesel using different types of catalyst (KOH & NaOH). Methodology: Oil is extracted from dried yellow oleander seeds using Soxhlet extractor and oil expeller (bulk). The FFA content of the oil is checked and depending on the FFA value either two steps or single step process is followed to produce biodiesel. Two step processes includes esterfication and transesterification, single step includes only transesterification. The properties of biodiesel are checked. Engine test is done for biodiesel produced. Result: It is concluded that biodiesel quality parameters such as yield(85% & 90%), flash point(1710C & 1760C),fire point(1950C & 1980C), viscosity(4.9991 and 5.21 mm2/s) for the biodiesel from seed oil of Thevetiaperuviana produced by using KOH & NaOH respectively. Thus the seed oil of Thevetiaperuviana is a viable feedstock for good quality fuel.The outcomes of our project are a substitute for conventional fuel, to reduce petro diesel requirement,improved performance in terms of emissions. Future prospects: Optimization of biodiesel production using response surface method.

Keywords: yellow oleander seeds, biodiesel, quality parameters, renewable sources

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Selvam M., Vadthya Poornachandar, Surender Singh

Abstract:

These Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) aggregates are generally dumped in the open area after the demolition of Asphalt Pavements. The utilization of RAP aggregates in cement concrete pavements may provide several socio-economic-environmental benefits and could embrace the circular economy. The cross recycling of RAP aggregates in the concrete pavement could reduce the consumption of virgin aggregates and saves the fertile land. However, the structural, as well as functional properties of RAP-concrete could be significantly lower than the conventional Pavement Quality Control (PQC) pavements. This warrants judicious selection of RAP fraction (coarse and fine aggregates) along with the accurate proportion of the same for PQC highways. Also, the selection of the RAP fraction and its proportion shall not be solely based on the mechanical properties of RAP-concrete specimens but also governed by the structural and functional behavior of the pavement system. In this study, an effort has been made to predict the optimum RAP fraction and its corresponding proportion for cement concrete pavements by considering the low-volume and high-volume roads. Initially, the effect of inclusions of RAP on the fresh and mechanical properties of concrete pavement mixes is mapped through an extensive literature survey. Almost all the studies available to date are considered for this study. Generally, Indian Roads Congress (IRC) methods are the most widely used design method in India for the analysis of concrete pavements, and the same has been considered for this study. Subsequently, fatigue damage analysis is performed to evaluate the required safe thickness of pavement slab for different fractions of RAP (coarse RAP). Consequently, the performance of RAP-concrete is predicted by employing the AASHTO-1993 model for the following distresses conditions: faulting, cracking, and smoothness. The performance prediction and total cost analysis of RAP aggregates depict that the optimum proportions of coarse RAP aggregates in the PQC mix are 35% and 50% for high volume and low volume roads, respectively.

Keywords: concrete pavement, RAP aggregate, performance prediction, pavement design

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Alireza Vahid, Santu Rana, Sunil Gupta, Pratibha Vellanki, Svetha Venkatesh, Thomas Dorin

Abstract:

Aluminum is the preferred material for lightweight applications and its alloys are constantly improving. The high strength 7xxx alloys have been extensively used for structural components in aerospace and automobile industries for the past 50 years. In the next decade, a great number of airplanes will be retired, providing an obvious source of valuable used metals and great demand for cost-effective methods to re-use these alloys. The design of proper aerospace alloys is primarily based on optimizing strength and ductility, both of which can be improved by controlling the additional alloying elements as well as heat treatment conditions. In this project, we explore the design of high-performance alloys with 7xxx as a base material. These designed alloys have to be optimized and improved to compare with modern 7xxx-series alloys and to remain competitive for aircraft manufacturing. Aerospace alloys are extremely complex with multiple alloying elements and numerous processing steps making optimization often intensive and costly. In the present study, we used Bayesian optimization algorithm, a well-known adaptive design strategy, to optimize this multi-variable system. An Al alloy was proposed and the relevant heat treatment schedules were optimized, using the tensile yield strength as the output to maximize. The designed alloy has a maximum yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of more than 730 and 760 MPa, respectively, and is thus comparable to the modern high strength 7xxx-series alloys. The microstructure of this alloy is characterized by electron microscopy, indicating that the increased strength of the alloy is due to the presence of a high number density of refined precipitates.

Keywords: aluminum alloys, Bayesian optimization, heat treatment, tensile properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Zaide Montes Ortiz, Jorge Alberto Molina, Alejandro Reyes

Abstract:

Insects are extremely successful organisms. A sophisticated olfactory system is in part responsible for their survival and reproduction. The detection of volatile organic compounds can positively or negatively affect many behaviors in insects. Compounds such as carbon dioxide (CO2), ammonium, indol, and lactic acid are essential for many species of mosquitoes like Anopheles gambiae in order to locate vertebrate hosts. For instance, in A. gambiae, the olfactory receptor AgOR2 is strongly activated by indol, which accounts for almost 30% of human sweat. On the other hand, in some insects of agricultural importance, the detection and identification of pheromone receptors (PRs) in lepidopteran species has become a promising field for integrated pest management. For example, with the disruption of the pheromone receptor, BmOR1, mediated by transcription activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), the sensitivity to bombykol was completely removed affecting the pheromone-source searching behavior in male moths. Then, the detection and identification of olfactory receptors in the genomes of insects is fundamental to improve our understanding of the ecological interactions, and to provide alternatives in the integrated pests and vectors management. Hence, the objective of this study is to propose a bioinformatic workflow to enhance the detection and identification of potential olfactory receptors in genomes of relevant insects. Applying Hidden Markov models (Hmms) and different computational tools, potential candidates for pheromone receptors in Tuta absoluta were obtained, as well as potential carbon dioxide receptors in Rhodnius prolixus, the main vector of Chagas disease. This study showed the validity of a bioinformatic workflow with a potential to improve the identification of certain olfactory receptors in different orders of insects.

Keywords: bioinformatic workflow, insects, olfactory receptors, protein prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Hossein Anaraki-Ardakani, Tayebe Heidari-Rakati

Abstract:

An environmentally benign protocol for the one-pot, three-component synthesis of Triazolo[1,2-a]indazole-1,3,8-trione derivatives by condensation of dimedone, urazole and aromatic aldehydes catalyzed by HClO4/SiO2 NPS as an ecofriendly catalyst with high catalytic activity and reusability at 100 ºC under solvent-free conditions is reported. The reaction proceeds to completion within 20-30 min in 77-86 % yield.

Keywords: one-pot reaction, dimedone, triazoloindazole, urazole

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Molin A., De Ramos J. M., Cadion L. G., Pico R. L.

Abstract:

Malnutrition and food insecurity represent significant global challenges affecting millions of individuals, particularly in low-income and developing regions. The researchers created a solar-powered enzymatic composting bioreactor with an Arduino-based monitoring system for pH, humidity, and temperature. It manages mixed municipal solid wastes incorporating industrial enzymes and whey additives for accelerated composting and minimized carbon footprint. Within 15 days, the bioreactor yielded 54.54% compost compared to 44.85% from traditional methods, increasing yield by nearly 10%. Tests showed that the bioreactor compost had 4.84% NPK, passing metal analysis standards, while the traditional pit compost had 3.86% NPK; both are suitable for agriculture. Statistical analyses, including ANOVA and Tukey's HSD test, revealed significant differences in agricultural yield across different compost types based on leaf length, width, and number of leaves. The study compared the effects of different composts on Brassica rapa subsp. Chinesis (Petchay) and Brassica juncea (Mustasa) plant growth. For Pechay, significant effects of compost type on plant leaf length (F(5,84) = 62.33, η² = 0.79) and leaf width (F(5,84) = 12.35, η² = 0.42) were found. For Mustasa, significant effects of compost type on leaf length (F(4,70) = 20.61, η² = 0.54), leaf width (F(4,70) = 19.24, η² = 0.52), and number of leaves (F(4,70) = 13.17, η² = 0.43) were observed. This study explores the effectiveness of the enzymatic composting bioreactor and its viability in promoting carbon farming as a solution to food insecurity and malnutrition.

Keywords: malnutrition, food insecurity, enzymatic composting bioreactor, arduino-based monitoring system, enzymes, carbon farming, whey additive, NPK level

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Yahya Al-Wahaibi, Saif Al-Bahry, Abdulkadir Elshafie, Ali Al-Bemani, Sanket Joshi

Abstract:

Microbial enhanced oil recovery is one of the most economical and efficient methods for extending the life of production wells in a declining reservoir. There are a variety of metabolites produced by microorganisms that can be useful for oil recovery, like biopolymers-polysaccharides secreted by microbes, biodegradable thus environmentally friendly. Some fungi like Schizophyllum commune (a type of mushroom), and Aureobasidium pullulans are reported to produce biopolymers-schizophyllan and pullulan. Hence, we have procured a microbial strain (Schizophyllum commune) from American Type Culture Collection, which is reported for producing a biopolymer and also isolated several Omani strains of Aureobasidium pullulans from different samples. Studies were carried out for maintenance of the strains and primary screening of production media and environmental conditions for growth of S. commune and Omani A. pullulans isolates, for 30 days. The observed optimum growth and production temperature was ≤35 °C for S. commune and Omani A. pullulans isolates. Better growth was observed for both types of fungi under shaking conditions. The initial yield of lyophilized schizophyllan was ≥3.0 g/L, and the yield of pullulan was ≥0.5g/L. Both schizophyllan and pullulan were extracted in crude form and were partially identified by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), which showed partial similarity in chemical structure with published biopolymers. The produced pullulan and schizophyllan increased the viscosity from 9-20 cp of the control media (without biopolymer) to 20 - 121.4 cp of the cell free broth at 0.1 s-1 shear rate at range of temperatures from 25–45 °C. Enhanced biopolymer production and its physicochemical and rheological properties under different environmental conditions (different temperatures, salt concentrations and wide range of pH), complete characterization and effects on oil recovery enhancement were also investigated in this study.

Keywords: Aureobasidium pullulans, biopolymer, oil recovery enhancement, Schizophyllum commune

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

Abstract:

State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

Procedia PDF Downloads 726