Search results for: magnesium hazard

Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Indah Kurniawaty, Yoki Yulizar, Haryo Satriya Oktaviano, Adam Kusuma Rianto

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Magnesium oxide nanoparticles (MgO NP) were successfully synthesized in this study using a one-pot green synthesis mediated by Calliandra Calothyrsus leaf extract (CLE). CLE was prepared by maceration of the leaf using methanol with a ratio of 1:5 for 7 days. Secondary metabolites in CLE, such as alkaloids and flavonoids, served as a weak base provider and capping agent in the formation of MgO NP. CLE Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) spectra peak at 3255, 1600, 1384, 1205, 1041, and 667 cm-1 showing the presence of vibrations O-H stretching, N-H bending, C-C stretching, C-N stretching and N-H wagging. During the experiment, different CLE volumes and calcined temperatures were used, resulting in a variety of structures. Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer (EDS) and FTIR were used to characterize metal oxide particles. MgO diffraction pattern at 2θ of 36.9°; 42.9°; 62.2°; 74.6°; and 78.5° which can be assigned to crystal planes (111), (200), (220), (311), and (222), respectively. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) was used to characterize the surface morphology. The morphology ranged from sphere to flower-like resulting in crystallite sizes of 28, 23, 12, and 9 nm.

Keywords: MgO, nanoparticle, calliandra calothyrsus, green-synthesis

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Authors: Kuo-Wei Liao, Jessica Gitomarsono

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Bridge reliability against natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes is an interdisciplinary problem that involves a wide range of knowledge. Moreover, due to the global climate change, engineers have to design a structure against the multi-hazard threats. Currently, few of the practical design guideline has included such concept. The bridge foundation in Taiwan often does not have a uniform width. However, few of the researches have focused on safety evaluation of a bridge with a complex pier. Investigation of the scouring depth under such situation is very important. Thus, this study first focuses on investigating and improving the scour prediction formula for a bridge with complicated foundation via experiments and artificial intelligence. Secondly, a probabilistic design procedure is proposed using the established prediction formula for practical engineers under the multi-hazard attacks.

Keywords: bridge, reliability, multi-hazards, scour

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

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Authors: Ouafek Nora, Keghouche Nassira, Dehdouh Heider, Untidt Carlos

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A lot of knowledge has been accumulated on the metal clusters supported on oxide surfaces because of their multiple applications in microelectronics, heterogeneous catalysis, and magnetic devices. In this work, the surface state of Ni / MgO has been studied by XPS (X-ray Photoemission Spectroscopy). The samples were prepared by impregnation with ion exchange Ni²⁺ / MgO, followed by either a thermal treatment in air (T = 100 -350 ° C) or a gamma irradiation (dose 100 kGy, 25 kGy dose rate h -1). The obtained samples are named after impregnation NMI, NMR after irradiation, and finally NMC(T) after calcination at the temperature T (T = 100-600 °C). A structural study by XRD and HRTEM reveals the presence of nanoscaled Ni-Mg intermetallic phases (Mg₂Ni, MgNi₂, and Mg₆Ni) and magnesium hydroxide. Mg(OH)₂ in nanometric range (2- 4 nm). Mg-Ni compounds are of great interest in energy fields (hydrogen storage…). XPS spectra show two Ni2p peaks at energies of about 856.1 and 861.9 eV, indicating that the nickel is primarily in an oxidized state on the surface. The shift of the main peak relative to the pure NiO (856.1 instead of 854.0 eV) suggests that in addition to oxygen, nickel is engaged in another link with magnesium. This is in agreement with the O1s spectra which present an overlap of peaks corresponds to NiO and MgO, at a calcination temperature T ≤ 300 °C.

Keywords: XPS, XRD, nanoparticules, Ni-MgO

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad

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Specific activities of the natural radionuclides 238U, 232Th and 40K were measured by using γ - ray spectrometric technique in soil samples collected from the city of Dhanbad, which is located near coal mines. Mean activity values for 238U, 232Th and 40K were found to be 60.29 Bq/kg, 64.50 Bq/kg and 481.0 Bq/kg, respectively. Mean radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, outdoor dose, external hazard index, internal hazard index, for the area under study were determined as 189.53 Bq/kg, 87.21 nGy/h, 0.37 mSv/y, 0.52 and 0.64, respectively. The annual effective dose to the general public was found 0.44 mSv/y. This value lies well below the limit of 1 mSv/y as recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection. Measured values were found safe for environment and public health.

Keywords: coal city Dhanbad, gamma-ray spectroscopy, natural radioactivity, soil samples

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Authors: Jiří Kubásek, Peter Minárik, Klára Hosová, Stanislav Šašek, Jozef Veselý, Jitka Stráská, Drahomír Dvorský, Dalibor Vojtěch, Miloš Janeček

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Mg-2Y-2Gd-1Ca and Mg-4Y-4Gd-2Ca alloys were processed by extrusion or equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) to analyse the effect of the microstructure on ignition temperature, mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. The alloys are characterized by good mechanical properties and exceptionally high ignition temperature, which is a critical safety measure. The effect of extrusion and ECAP on the microstructure, mechanical properties and ignition temperature was studied. The obtained results indicated a substantial effect of the processing conditions on the average grain size, the recrystallized fraction and texture formation. Both alloys featured a high strength, depending on the composition and processing condition, and a high ignition temperature of ≈1100 °C (Mg-4Y-4Gd-2Ca) and ≈950 °C (Mg-2Y-2Gd-1Ca), which was attributed to the synergic effect of Y, Gd and Ca oxides, with the dominant effect of Y₂O₃. The achieved combination of enhanced mechanical properties and the ignition temperature makes these alloys a prominent candidate for aircraft applications.

Keywords: magnesium alloys, enhanced ignition temperature, mechanical properties, ECAP

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Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

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Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Umer Masood Chaudry, Hafiz Muhammad Rehan Tariq, Chung-soo Kim, Tea-sung Jun

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This study explored the influence of pre-stretching temperature on the microstructural characteristics and deformation behavior of AZ61 magnesium alloy and its implications on grain growth during subsequent annealing. AZ61 alloy was stretched to 5% plastic strain along rolling (RD) and transverse direction (TD) at room (RT) and cryogenic temperature (-150 oC, CT) followed by annealing at 320 oC for 1 h to investigate the twinning and dislocation evolution and its consequent effect on the flow stress, plastic strain and strain hardening rate. Compared to RT-stretched samples, significant improvement in yield stress, strain hardening rate and moderate reduction in elongation to failure were witnessed for CT-stretched samples along RD and TD. The subsequent EBSD analysis revealed the increased fraction of fine {10-12} twins and nucleation of multiple {10-12} twin variants caused by higher local stress concentration at the grain boundaries in CT-stretched samples as manifested by the kernel average misorientation. This higher twin fraction and twin-twin interaction imposed the strengthening by restricting the mean free path of dislocations, leading to higher flow stress and strain hardening rate. During annealing of the RT/CT-stretched samples, the residual strain energy and twin boundaries were decreased due to static recovery, leading to a coarse-grained twin-free microstructure. Strain induced boundary migration (SBIM) was found to be the predominant mechanism governing the grain growth during annealing via movement of high angle grain boundaries.

Keywords: magnesium, twinning, twinning variant selection, EBSD, cryogenic deformation

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Authors: Erdinç Vural, Bülent Özdalyan, Serkan Özel

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The four-stroke single cylinder diesel engine has been used in this study, the pistons and valves of the engine have been stabilized, the aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃) in different ratios has been added in the power of zirconium (ZrO₂) magnesium oxide (MgO), and has been coated with the plasma spray method. The pistons and valves of the combustion chamber of the engine are coated with 5 different (ZrO₂ + MgO), (ZrO₂ + MgO + 25% Al₂O₃), (ZrO₂ + MgO + 50% Al₂O₃), (ZrO₂ + MgO + 75% Al₂O₃), (Al₂O₃) sample. The material tests have been made for each of the coated engine parts with the scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) using Cu Kα radiation surface analysis methods. The engine tests have been repeated for each sample in any electric dynamometer in full power 1600 rpm, 2000 rpm, 2400 rpm and 2800 rpm engine speeds. The material analysis and engine tests have shown that the best performance has been performed with (ZrO₂ + MgO + 50% Al₂O₃). Thus, there is no significant change in HC and Smoke emissions, but NOx emission is increased, as the engine improves power, torque, specific fuel consumption and CO emissions in the tests made with sample A3.

Keywords: ceramic coating, material characterization, engine performance, exhaust emissions

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Saylav Ejder Bora, Arife Erdogan, Mumin Alper Erdogan, Oytun Erbas, Ismet Parlak

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate histological, electrical and biochemical effects of metoprolol, lipid emulsion and magnesium sulphate as an alternative method to be used in preventing long QT emergence, that is among the lethal consequences of amitryptiline toxicity. Methods: Thirty Sprague- Dawley male rats were included. Rats were randomly separated into 5 groups. First group was administered saline only while the rest had received amitryptiline 100 mg/kg + saline, 5 mg/kg metoprolol, 20 ml/kg lipid emulsion and 75 mg/kg magnesium sulphate (MgSO4) intraperitoneally. ECG at DI lead, biochemical tests following euthanasia were performed in all groups after 1 hour of administration. Cardiac tissues were removed, sections were prepared and examined. Results: QTc values were significantly shorter in the rest when compared to amitryptiline+ saline group. While lipid emulsion did not affect proBNP and troponin values biochemically as compared to that of the control group, histologically, it was with reduced caspase 3 expression. Though statistically insignificant in the context of biochemical changes, pro-BNP and urea levels were lower in the metoprolol group when compared to controls. Similarly, metoprolol had no statistically significant effect on histological caspase 3 expression in the group that was treated with amitryptiline+metoprolol. On the other hand, there was a statistically significant decrease in Troponin, pro-BNP and urea levels as well as significant decline in histological caspase 3 expression within the MgSO4 group when compared to controls. Conclusion: As still a frequent cause of mortality in emergency units, administration of MgSO4, lipid emulsion and metoprolol might be beneficial in alternative treatment of cardiovascular toxicity caused by tricyclic antidepressant overdose, whether intake would be intentional or accidental.

Keywords: amitryptiline, cardiovascular toxicity, long QT, Rat Model

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Authors: Mohamed H. Sorour, Hayam F. Shaalan, Heba A. Hani, Mahmoud A. El-Toukhy

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This paper reports the results of nanofiltration (NF) polymeric membrane for the recovery of divalent ions (calcium and magnesium) from Red Seawater. Pilot plant experiments have been carried out using Alfa-Laval (NF 2517/48) membrane module. System was operated in both total recirculation mode (permeate and brine) and brine recirculation mode under hydraulic pressure of 15 bar. Impacts of some chelating agents on both flux and rejection have been also investigated. Results indicated that pure water permeability ranges from 17 to 85.5 L/m²h at 2-15 bar. Comparison with seawater permeability under the same operating pressure values reveals lower values of 8.9-31 L/m²h manifesting the effect of the osmotic pressure of seawater. Overall total dissolved solids (TDS) reduction was almost constant without incorporation of chelating agents. On the contrary of expectations, the use of chelating agents N-(2-hydroxyethyl) ethylene diamine-N,N´,N´-triacetic acid (HEDTA) and ethylene glycol bis (2-aminoethyl ether)-N,N,N´,N´-tetraacetic acid (EGTA) showed flux decline of about 3-15%. Analysis of rejection data of total recirculation mode showed reasonable rejection values of 35%, 59% and 90% for Ca, Mg and SO₄, respectively. Operating under brine recirculation mode only showed a decrease of rejection to 33%, 56% and 86% for Ca, Mg and SO₄, respectively. The use of chelating agents has no substantial effect on NF membrane performance except for increasing the total Ca rejection to 48 and 65% for EGTA and HEDTA, respectively. Results, in general, confirmed the powerful separation of NF technology for softening and recovery of divalent ions from seawater. It is anticipated that increasing operating pressure beyond the limits of our investigations would improve the rejection and flux values. A trade-off should be considered between operating cost (due to higher pressure and marginal benefits as manifested by expected improved performance). The experimental results fit well with the formulated rejection empirical correlations and the published ones.

Keywords: nanofiltration, seawater, recovery, calcium, magnesium

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Authors: Freddy Houndekindo

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A study was carried out to evaluate the flood risk in the district of Malanville located along the Niger River. The knowledge produce by this study is useful in the implementation of adaptation and/or mitigation measures to alleviate the impact of the flooding on the populations, the economy and the environment. Over the course of the study, the lack of data in the area of interest has been one of the main challenges encountered. Therefore, in the analysis of the flood hazard different sources of remotely sensed data were used. Moreover, the flood hazard was analysed by applying a 1D hydraulic model: HEC-RAS. After setting up the model for the study area, the different flood scenarios considered were simulated and mapped using ArcGIS and the HEC-GEORAS extension. The result of the simulation gave information about the inundated areas and the water depths at each location. From the analysis of the flood hazard, it was found that between 47% and 50% of the total area of the district of Malanville would be flooded in the different flood scenarios considered, and the water depth varies between 1 and 7 m. The townships of Malanville most at risk of flooding are Momkassa and Galiel, located in a high-risk and very high-risk zone, respectively. Furthermore, the assessment of the flood risk showed that the most vulnerable sector to the inundations is the agricultural sector. Indeed, the cultivated floodplains were the most affected areas by the floodwater in every flood scenarios. Knowing that a high proportion of the population of the district relies on their farmlands in these floodplains for their livelihood, the floods pose a challenge not only to the food security in the area but also to its development.

Keywords: flood risk management, Niger, remote sensing, vulnerability

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms

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Authors: Ksenia Siadkowska, Tytus Tulwin, Rafał Sochaczewski

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Selecting appropriate materials is presently a complex task as material databases cover tens of thousands of different types of materials. Product designing proceeds in numerous stages and in most of them there are open questions with not only one correct solution but better and worse ones. This paper overviews the Diesel engine body construction materials mentioned in the literature and discusses a certain practical method to select materials for a cylinder head and a Diesel engine block as a prototype. The engine body, depending on its purpose, is most frequently iron or aluminum. If it is important to optimize parts to achieve low weight, aluminum alloys are usually applied, especially in the automotive and aviation industries. In the latter case, weight is even more important so new types of magnesium alloys which are even lighter than aluminum ones are developed and used. However, magnesium alloys are, for example, more flammable and not enough strong so, for safety reasons, this type of material is not used solely in engine bodies. Acknowledgement: This work has been realized in the cooperation with The Construction Office of WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A." and is part of Grant Agreement No. POIR.01.02.00-00-0002/15 financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, cylinder head, Diesel engine, materials selection

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Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

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Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

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Authors: Cise Unluer

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Reactive MgO hydrates to form brucite (Mg(OH)2, magnesium hydroxide), which can then react with CO2 and additional water to form a range of strength providing hydrated magnesium carbonates (HMCs) within cement-based formulations. The presented work focuses on the use of reactive MgO in a range of concrete mixes, where it carbonates by absorbing CO2 and gains strength accordingly. The main goal involves maximizing the amount of CO2 absorbed within construction products, thereby reducing the overall environmental impact of the designed formulations. Microstructural analyses including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and thermogravimetry/differential thermal analysis (TG/DTA) are used in addition to porosity, permeability and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) testing to understand the performance mechanisms. XRD Reference Intensity Ratio (RIR), acid digestion and TG/DTA are utilized to quantify the amount of CO2 sequestered, with the goal of achieving 100% carbonation through careful mix design, leading to a range of carbon neutral products with high strengths. As a result, samples stronger than those containing Portland cement (PC) were produced, revealing the link between the mechanical performance and microstructural development of the developed formulations with the amount of CO2 sequestered.

Keywords: carbonation, compressive strength, reactive MgO cement, sustainability

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Authors: H. J. Pramod, S. Pethkar

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The evaluation of antiurolithiatic potentials from the extracts of Cucumis sativus fruits at different doses and cystone (standard formulation) at a dose of 750 mg/kg were measured for both preventive and curative regimen in wistar rats by adding 0.75% v/v ethylene glycol (EG) to drinking water for 28 days, except normal rats. After the completion of the experimental period, (28th day) urinary parameters like (urine volume, routine urine analysis, levels of calcium, phosphate, oxalate, magnesium, sodium) serum biomarkers like (creatinine, BUN, uric acid, ALP, ALT, AST) kidney homogenate analysis for (levels of calcium, oxalate and phosphate) were analysed. The treated groups shows increased in the urine output significantly compared to the normal. The extract shows significantly decreased in the urinary excretion of the calcium, phosphate, magnesium, sodium and oxalate. The both preventive and curative treatment of extracts showed decrease in the stone forming constituents in the kidneys of urolithiatic rats further the kidneys of all the groups were excised and sectioned for histopathological examination which further claims to posses antiurolithiatic activity.

Keywords: Cucumis sativus, urolithiasis, ethylene glycol, cystone

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Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

Abstract:

The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

Abstract:

State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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Authors: Manuela Villani, Anila Xhahysa, Christopher Brooks, Marco Pagani

Abstract:

The geological structure of Western Balkans is strongly affected by the collision between Adria microplate and the southwestern Euroasia margin, resulting in a considerably active seismic region. The Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP) (2007-2011, 2012-2015) by NATO supported the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan, but when inspecting the seismic hazard models produced later by these countries on a national scale, significant differences in design PGA values are observed in the border, for instance, North Albania-Montenegro, South Albania- Greece, etc. Considering the fact that the catalogues were unified and seismic sources were defined within BSHAP framework, obviously, the differences arise from the Ground Motion Prediction Equations selection, which are generally the component with highest impact on the seismic hazard assessment. At the time of the project, a modest database was present, namely 672 three-component records, whereas nowadays, this strong motion database has increased considerably up to 20,939 records with Mw ranging in the interval 3.7-7 and epicentral distance distribution from 0.47km to 490km. Statistical analysis of the strong motion database showed the lack of recordings in the moderate-to-large magnitude and short distance ranges; therefore, there is need to re-evaluate the Ground Motion Prediction Equation in light of the recently updated database and the new generations of GMMs. In some cases, it was observed that some events were more extensively documented in one database than the other, like the 1979 Montenegro earthquake, with a considerably larger number of records in the BSHAP Analogue SM database when compared to ESM23. Therefore, the strong motion flat-file provided from the Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project was merged with the ESM23 database for the polygon studied in this project. After performing the preliminary residual analysis, the candidate GMPE-s were identified. This process was done using the GMPE performance metrics available within the SMT in the OpenQuake Platform. The Likelihood Model and Euclidean Distance Based Ranking (EDR) were used. Finally, for this study, a GMPE logic tree was selected and following the selection of candidate GMPEs, model weights were assigned using the average sample log-likelihood approach of Scherbaum.

Keywords: residual analysis, GMPE, western balkan, strong motion, openquake

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Authors: Mohammed T. Hayajneh, Adel Mahmood Hassan, Moath AL-Qudah

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Burnishing is increasingly used as a finishing operation to improve surface roughness and surface hardness. This can be achieved by applying a hard ball or roller onto metallic surfaces under pressure, in order to achieve many advantages in the metallic surface. In the present work, the feed rate, speed and force have been considered as the basic burnishing parameters to study the surface roughness and surface hardness of metallic matrix composites. The considered metal matrix composites were made from Aluminum-Magnesium-Graphite with five different weight percentage of graphite. Both effects of burnishing parameters mentioned above and the graphite percentage on the surface hardness and surface roughness of the metallic matrix composites were studied. The results of this investigation showed that the surface hardness of the metallic composites increases with the increase of the burnishing force and decreases with the increase in the burnishing feed rate and burnishing speed. The surface roughness of the metallic composites decreases with the increasing of the burnishing force, feed rate, and speed to certain values, then it starts to increase. On the other hand, the increase in the weight percentage of the graphite in the considered composites causes a decrease in the surface hardness and an increase in the surface roughness.

Keywords: burnishing process, Al-Mg-Graphite composites, surface hardness, surface roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

Abstract:

This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Amit Ghosh, Chanchal Kundu

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Recently, the notion of past cumulative inaccuracy (CPI) measure has been proposed in the literature as a generalization of cumulative past entropy (CPE) in univariate as well as bivariate setup. In this paper, we introduce the notion of CPI of order α (alpha) and study the proposed measure for conditionally specified models of two components failed at different time instants called generalized conditional CPI (GCCPI). We provide some bounds using usual stochastic order and investigate several properties of GCCPI. The effect of monotone transformation on this proposed measure has also been examined. Furthermore, we characterize some bivariate distributions under the assumption of conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model. Moreover, the role of GCCPI in reliability modeling has also been investigated for a real-life problem.

Keywords: cumulative past inaccuracy, marginal and conditional past lifetimes, conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model, usual stochastic order

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Samuel Abebe Ebebo

Abstract:

Scale precipitation causes a major issue for geothermal power plants because it reduces the production rate of geothermal energy. Each geothermal power plant's different chemical and physical conditions can cause the scale to precipitate under a particular set of fluid-rock interactions. Depending on the mineral, it is possible to have scale in the production well, steam separators, heat exchangers, reinjection wells, and everywhere in between. The scale consists mainly of smectite and trace amounts of chlorite, magnetite, quartz, hematite, dolomite, aragonite, and amorphous silica. The smectite scale is one of the difficult scales at injection wells in geothermal power plants. X-ray diffraction and chemical composition identify this smectite as Stevensite. The characteristics and the scale of each injection well line are different depending on the fluid chemistry. The smectite scale has been widely distributed in pipelines and surface plants. Mineral water equilibrium showed that the main factors controlling the saturation indices of smectite increased pH and dissolved Mg concentration due to the precipitate on the equipment surface. This study aims to characterize the scales and geothermal fluids collected from the Onuma geothermal power plant in Akita Prefecture, Japan. Field tests were conducted on October 30–November 3, 2021, at Onuma to determine the pH control methods for preventing magnesium silicate scaling, and as exemplified, the formation of magnesium silicate hydrates (M-S-H) with MgO to SiO2 ratios of 1.0 and pH values of 10 for one day has been studied at 25 °C. As a result, M-S-H scale formation could be suppressed, and stevensite formation could also be suppressed when we can decrease the pH of the fluid by less than 8.1, 7.4, and 8 (at 97 °C) in the fluid from O-3Rb and O-6Rb, O-10Rg, and O-12R, respectively. In this context, the scales and fluids collected from injection wells at a geothermal power plant in Japan were analyzed and characterized to understand the formation conditions of Mg-silicate scales with on-site synthesis experiments. From the results of the characterizations and on-site synthesis experiments, the inhibition method of their scale formation is discussed based on geochemical modeling in this study.

Keywords: magnesium silicate, scaling, inhibitor, geothermal power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 56