Search results for: reduced order macro models

Authors: Alessandro Preziosi, Antonio Prioletti, Luca Castangia

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Deformable part models achieve high precision in pedestrian recognition, but all publicly available implementations are too slow for real-time applications. We implemented a deformable part model algorithm fast enough for real-time use by exploiting information about the camera position and orientation. This implementation is both faster and more precise than alternative DPM implementations. These results are obtained by computing convolutions in the frequency domain and using lookup tables to speed up feature computation. This approach is almost an order of magnitude faster than the reference DPM implementation, with no loss in precision. Knowing the position of the camera with respect to horizon it is also possible prune many hypotheses based on their size and location. The range of acceptable sizes and positions is set by looking at the statistical distribution of bounding boxes in labelled images. With this approach it is not needed to compute the entire feature pyramid: for example higher resolution features are only needed near the horizon. This results in an increase in mean average precision of 5% and an increase in speed by a factor of two. Furthermore, to reduce misdetections involving small pedestrians near the horizon, input images are supersampled near the horizon. Supersampling the image at 1.5 times the original scale, results in an increase in precision of about 4%. The implementation was tested against the public KITTI dataset, obtaining an 8% improvement in mean average precision over the best performing DPM-based method. By allowing for a small loss in precision computational time can be easily brought down to our target of 100ms per image, reaching a solution that is faster and still more precise than all publicly available DPM implementations.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, deformable part model, dpm, pedestrian detection, real time

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: Aparna M. Joshi

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Methyl vinyl silicone polymer (VMQ) - alkaline earth metal doped aluminium oxide composites are prepared by conventional two rolls open mill mixing method. Doped aluminium oxides (DAO) using silvery white coloured alkaline earth metals such as Mg and Ca as dopants in the concentration of 0.4 % are synthesized by microwave combustion method and referred as MA ( Mg doped aluminium oxide) and CA ( Ca doped aluminium oxide). The as-synthesized materials are characterized for the electrical resistance, X–ray diffraction, FE-SEM, TEM and FTIR. The electrical resistances of the DAOs are observed to be ~ 8-20 MΩ. This means that the resistance of aluminium oxide (Corundum) α-Al2O3 which is ~ 1010Ω is reduced by the order of ~ 103 to 104 Ω after doping. XRD studies reveal the doping of Mg and Ca in aluminium oxide. The microstructural study using FE-SEM shows the flaky clusterous structures with the thickness of the flakes between 10 and 20 nm. TEM images depict the rod-shaped morphological geometry of the particles with the diameter of ~50-70 nm. The nanocomposites are synthesized by incorporating the DAOs in the concentration of 75 phr (parts per hundred parts of rubber) into VMQ polymer. The electrical resistance of VMQ polymer, which is ~ 1015Ω, drops by the order of 108Ω. There is a retention of the electrical resistance of ~ 30-50 MΩ for the nanocomposites which is a static dissipative range of electricity. In this work white coloured electrically conductive VMQ polymer-DAO nanocomposites (MAVMQ for Mg doping and CAVMQ for Ca doping) have been synthesized. The physical and mechanical properties of the composites such as specific gravity, hardness, tensile strength and rebound resilience are measured. Hardness and tensile strength are found to increase, with the negligible alteration in the other properties.

Keywords: doped aluminium oxide, methyl vinyl silicone polymer, microwave synthesis, static dissipation

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Authors: A. Kahil, A. Nekmouche, N. Khelil, I. Hamadou, M. Hamizi, Ne. Hannachi

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The objective of this work is to study the influence of the nonlinear behavior models of the concrete (concrete_BAEL and concrete_UNI) as well as the confinement brought by the transverse reinforcement on the seismic response of reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame). These models as well as the confinement are integrated in the Cast3m finite element calculation code. The consideration of confinement (TAC, taking into account the confinement) provided by the transverse reinforcement and the non-consideration of confinement (without consideration of containment, WCC) in the presence and absence of a vertical load is studied. The application was made on a reinforced concrete frame (RC/frame) with 3 levels and 2 spans. The results show that on the one hand, the concrete_BAEL model slightly underestimates the resistance of the RC/frame in the plastic field, whereas the concrete_uni model presents the best results compared to the simplified model "concrete_BAEL", on the other hand, for the concrete-uni model, taking into account the confinement has no influence on the behavior of the RC/frame under imposed displacement up to a vertical load of 500 KN.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, nonlinear calculation, behavior laws, fiber model confinement, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Ahmed Alqaoud

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This paper describes Publish/Subscribe Scientific Workflow Interoperability Framework (PS-SWIF) architecture and its components that collectively provide interoperability between heterogeneous scientific workflow systems. Requirements to achieve interoperability are identified. This paper also provides a detailed investigation and design of models and solutions for system requirements, and considers how workflow interoperability models provided by Workflow Management Coalition (WfMC) can be achieved using the PS-SWIF system.

Keywords: publish/subscribe, scientific workflow, web services, workflow interoperability

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Authors: Luciana Abednego, Cecilia Nugraheni

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There are many approaches proposed for solving Sudoku puzzles. One of them is by modelling the puzzles as block world problems. There have been three model for Sudoku solvers based on this approach. Each model expresses Sudoku solver as a parameterized multi agent systems. In this work, we propose a new model which is an improvement over the existing models. This paper presents the development of a Sudoku solver that implements all the proposed models. Some experiments have been conducted to determine the performance of each model.

Keywords: Sudoku puzzle, Sudoku solver, block world problem, parameterized multi agent systems

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Authors: Elissa D. Ledoux, Eric J. Barth

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Producing custom orthotic devices is a time-consuming and iterative process. Efficiency could be increased with a smart CAD program to rapidly generate custom part files for 3D printing, reducing the need for a skilled orthosis technician as well as the hands-on time required. Anthropometric data for the hand was analyzed in order to determine dimensional relationships and reduce the number of measurements needed to parameterize the hand. Using these relationships, a smart CAD package was developed to produce custom sized hand orthosis parts downloadable for 3D printing. Results showed that the number of anatomical parameters required could be reduced from 8 to 3, and the relationships hold for 5th to 95th percentile male hands. CAD parts regenerate correctly for the same range. This package could significantly impact the orthotics industry in terms of expedited production and reduction of required human resources and patient contact.

Keywords: CAD, hand, orthosis, orthotic, rehabilitation robotics, upper limb

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Authors: HoYoung Son, DongHoon Shin, WooYoung Jung

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This study presented the seismic fragility framework of concrete weir structure subjected to strong seismic ground motions and in particular, concrete aging condition of the weir structure was taken into account in this study. In order to understand the influence of concrete aging on the weir structure, by using probabilistic risk assessment, the analytical seismic fragility of the weir structure was derived for pre- and post-deterioration of concrete. The performance of concrete weir structure after five years was assumed for the concrete aging or deterioration, and according to after five years’ condition, the elastic modulus was simply reduced about one–tenth compared with initial condition of weir structures. A 2D nonlinear finite element analysis was performed considering the deterioration of concrete in weir structures using ABAQUS platform, a commercial structural analysis program. Simplified concrete degradation was resulted in the increase of almost 45% of the probability of failure at Limit State 3, in comparison to initial construction stage, by analyzing the seismic fragility.

Keywords: weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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Authors: M. Ahmadi, Sh. Damanabi, F. Sadoughi

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National Health Information System plays an important role in ensuring timely and reliable access to Health information which is essential for strategic and operational decisions that improve health, quality and effectiveness of health care. In other words, by using the National Health information system you can improve the quality of health data, information and knowledge used to support decision making at all levels and areas of the health sector. Since full identification of the components of this system for better planning and management influential factors of performance seems necessary, therefore, in this study, different attitudes towards components of this system are explored comparatively. Methods: This is a descriptive and comparative kind of study. The society includes printed and electronic documents containing components of the national health information system in three parts: input, process, and output. In this context, search for information using library resources and internet search were conducted and data analysis was expressed using comparative tables and qualitative data. Results: The findings showed that there are three different perspectives presenting the components of national health information system, Lippeveld, Sauerborn, and Bodart Model in 2000, Health Metrics Network (HMN) model from World Health Organization in 2008 and Gattini’s 2009 model. All three models outlined above in the input (resources and structure) require components of management and leadership, planning and design programs, supply of staff, software and hardware facilities, and equipment. In addition, in the ‘process’ section from three models, we pointed up the actions ensuring the quality of health information system and in output section, except Lippeveld Model, two other models consider information products, usage and distribution of information as components of the national health information system. Conclusion: The results showed that all the three models have had a brief discussion about the components of health information in input section. However, Lippeveld model has overlooked the components of national health information in process and output sections. Therefore, it seems that the health measurement model of network has a comprehensive presentation for the components of health system in all three sections-input, process, and output.

Keywords: National Health Information System, components of the NHIS, Lippeveld Model

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Authors: Qiushi Ning

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The nitrogen (N) is an important limiting factor of various ecosystems, and the N deposition rate is increasing unprecedentedly due to anthropogenic activities. The N deposition altered the microbial growth and activity, and microbial mediated N cycling through changing soil pH, the availability of N and carbon (C). The CO2, CH4 and N2O are important greenhouse gas which threaten the sustainability and function of the ecosystem. With the prolonged and increasing N enrichment, the soil acidification and C limitation will be aggravated, and the microbial biomass will be further declined. The soil acidification and lack of C induced by N addition are argued as two important factors regulating the microbial activity and growth, and the studies combined soil acidification with lack of C on microbial community are scarce. In order to restore the ecosystem affected by chronic N loading, we determined the responses of microbial activity and GHG emssions to lime and glucose (control, 1‰ lime, 2‰ lime, glucose, 1‰ lime×glucose and 2‰ lime×glucose) addition which was used to alleviate the soil acidification and supply C resource into soils with N addition rates 0-50 g N m–2yr–1. The results showed no significant responses of soil respiration and microbial biomass (MBC and MBN) to lime addition, however, the glucose substantially improved the soil respiration and microbial biomass (MBC and MBN); the cumulative CO2 emission and microbial biomass of lime×glucose treatments were not significantly higher than those of only glucose treatment. The glucose and lime×glucose treatments reduced the net mineralization and nitrification rate, due to inspired microbial growth via C supply incorporating more inorganic N to the biomass, and mineralization of organic N was relatively reduced. The glucose addition also increased the CH4 and N2O emissions, CH4 emissions was regulated mainly by C resource as a substrate for methanogen. However, the N2O emissions were regulated by both C resources and soil pH, the C was important energy and the increased soil pH could benefit the nitrifiers and denitrifiers which were primary producers of N2O. The soil respiration and N2O emissions increased with increasing N addition rates in all glucose treatments, as the external C resource improved microbial N utilization. Compared with alleviated soil acidification, the improved availability of C substantially increased microbial activity, therefore, the C should be the main limiting factor in long-term N loading soils. The most important, when we use the organic C fertilization to improve the production of the ecosystems, the GHG emissions and consequent warming potentials should be carefully considered.

Keywords: acidification and C limitation, greenhouse gas emission, microbial activity, N deposition

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Authors: Salah Al-Din I. Badran, Samad Ahmadi, Ismail Shahin

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A blind source separation method is proposed; in this method, we use a non-uniform filter bank and a novel normalisation. This method provides a reduced computational complexity and increased convergence speed comparing to the full-band algorithm. Recently, adaptive sub-band scheme has been recommended to solve two problems: reduction of computational complexity and increase the convergence speed of the adaptive algorithm for correlated input signals. In this work, the reduction in computational complexity is achieved with the use of adaptive filters of orders less than the full-band adaptive filters, which operate at a sampling rate lower than the sampling rate of the input signal. The decomposed signals by analysis bank filter are less correlated in each subband than the input signal at full bandwidth, and can promote better rates of convergence.

Keywords: blind source separation, computational complexity, subband, convergence speed, mixture

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Authors: Ahmed R. Abdelaziz, Zaki M. I. Osha

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Solar radiation data are of great significance for solar energy system design. This study aims at developing and calibrating new empirical models for estimating monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Alexandria, Egypt. Day length hours, sun height, day number, and declination angle calculated data are used for this purpose. A comparison between measured and calculated values of solar radiation is carried out. It is shown that all the proposed correlations are able to predict the global solar radiation with excellent accuracy in Alexandria.

Keywords: solar energy, global solar radiation, model, regression coefficient

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

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This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

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Authors: Rebecca Owusu Coffie, Atakelty Hailu

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Variants of production frontier models have emerged, however, only a limited number of them are applied in empirical research. Hence the effects of these alternative frontier models are not well understood, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we apply recent advances in the production frontier to examine levels of technical efficiency and efficiency drivers. Specifically, we compare the heteroscedastic parametric and the semiparametric stochastic smooth coefficient (SPSC) models. Using rice production data from Ghana, our empirical estimates reveal that alternative specification of efficiency estimators results in either downward or upward bias in the technical efficiency estimates. Methodologically, we find that the SPSC model is more suitable and generates high-efficiency estimates. Within the parametric framework, we find that parameterization of both the mean and variance of the pre-truncated function is the best model. For the drivers of technical efficiency, we observed that longer farm distances increase inefficiency through a reduction in labor productivity. High soil quality, however, increases productivity through increased land productivity.

Keywords: pre-truncated, rice production, smooth coefficient, technical efficiency

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Authors: Kuo-Chun Chien, Chia-Hui Chang, Ren-Der Sun

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Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is a subtask for legal AI. Its main purpose is to use the facts of a case to predict the judgment result. In Taiwan's criminal procedure, when prosecutors complete the investigation of the case, they will decide whether to prosecute the suspect and which article of criminal law should be used based on the facts and evidence of the case. In this study, we collected 305,240 indictments from the public inquiry system of the procuratorate of the Ministry of Justice, which included 169 charges and 317 articles from 21 laws. We take the crime facts in the indictments as the main input to jointly learn the prediction model for law source, article, and charge simultaneously based on the pre-trained Bert model. For single article cases where the frequency of the charge and article are greater than 50, the prediction performance of law sources, articles, and charges reach 97.66, 92.22, and 60.52 macro-f1, respectively. To understand the big performance gap between articles and charges, we used a bipartite graph to visualize the relationship between the articles and charges, and found that the reason for the poor prediction performance was actually due to the wording precision. Some charges use the simplest words, while others may include the perpetrator or the result to make the charges more specific. For example, Article 284 of the Criminal Law may be indicted as “negligent injury”, "negligent death”, "business injury", "driving business injury", or "non-driving business injury". As another example, Article 10 of the Drug Hazard Control Regulations can be charged as “Drug Control Regulations” or “Drug Hazard Control Regulations”. In order to solve the above problems and more accurately predict the article and charge, we plan to include the article content or charge names in the input, and use the sentence-pair classification method for question-answer problems in the BERT model to improve the performance. We will also consider a sequence-to-sequence approach to charge prediction.

Keywords: legal judgment prediction, deep learning, natural language processing, BERT, data visualization

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Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Feng Qian, Miao Luo

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SMPL-X was a powerful parametric human body model that included male, neutral, and female models, with significant gender differences between these three models. During the process of 3D human body reconstruction, the correct selection of standard templates was crucial for obtaining accurate results. To address this issue, we developed an efficient gender classification algorithm to automatically select the appropriate template for 3D human body reconstruction. The key to this gender classification algorithm was the precise analysis of human body features. By using the SMPL-X model, the algorithm could detect and identify gender features of the human body, thereby determining which standard template should be used. The accuracy of this algorithm made the 3D reconstruction process more accurate and reliable, as it could adjust model parameters based on individual gender differences. SMPL-X and the related gender classification algorithm have brought important advancements to the field of 3D human body reconstruction. By accurately selecting standard templates, they have improved the accuracy of reconstruction and have broad potential in various application fields. These technologies continue to drive the development of the 3D reconstruction field, providing us with more realistic and accurate human body models.

Keywords: gender classification, joint detection, SMPL-X, 3D reconstruction

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Authors: Wenfu Zheng, Guanghe Zheng

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The discussion on the social sustainability in existing literature is limited to two-dimension epistemology space with only two elements: the human and nature. Using the revelation of the Bible God, the paper adds a moral component to the two-dimension space. With the new variable being introduced, the authors formulate a to three-dimension epistemology space and discuss its implications. Based on the space, the authors explore the hierarchical structure of order principles for a sustainable society. The social order principle system hierarchically consists of three principles: moral, relational, and rational. The justification of every principle is analyzed briefly. The paper concluded that all these order principles are necessary assurance of building a sustainable society.

Keywords: common grace, saving grace, sustainable society, the image of God

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Authors: Simon Guerin-Marthe, Marie Violay

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Thermal Pressurization (TP) has been proposed as a key mechanism involved in the weakening of faults during dynamic ruptures. Theoretical and numerical studies clearly show how frictional heating can lead to an increase in pore fluid pressure due to the rapid slip along faults occurring during earthquakes. In addition, recent laboratory studies have evidenced local pore pressure or local temperature variation during rotary shear tests, which are consistent with TP theoretical and numerical models. The aim of this study is to complement previous ones by measuring both local pore pressure and local temperature variations in the vicinity of a water-saturated calcite gouge layer subjected to a controlled slip velocity in direct double shear configuration. Laboratory investigation of TP process is crucial in order to understand the conditions at which it is likely to become a dominant mechanism controlling dynamic friction. It is also important in order to understand the timing and magnitude of temperature and pore pressure variations, to help understanding when it is negligible, and how it competes with other rather strengthening-mechanisms such as dilatancy, which can occur during rock failure. Here we present unique direct measurements of temperature and pressure variations during high-speed friction experiments under various load point velocities and show the timing of these variations relatively to the slip event.

Keywords: thermal pressurization, double-shear test, high-speed friction, dilatancy

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Ghada Elshafei, A. Elazim Negm

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Recently, Green architecture becomes a significant way to a sustainable future. Green building designs involve finding the balance between comfortable homebuilding and sustainable environment. Moreover, the utilization of the new technologies such as artificial intelligence techniques are used to complement current practices in creating greener structures to keep the built environment more sustainable. The most common objectives are green buildings should be designed to minimize the overall impact of the built environment on ecosystems in general and particularly on human health and on the natural environment. This will lead to protecting occupant health, improving employee productivity, reducing pollution and sustaining the environmental. In green building design, multiple parameters which may be interrelated, contradicting, vague and of qualitative/quantitative nature are broaden to use. This paper presents a comprehensive critical state of art review of current practices based on fuzzy and its combination techniques. Also, presented how green architecture/building can be improved using the technologies that been used for analysis to seek optimal green solutions strategies and models to assist in making the best possible decision out of different alternatives.

Keywords: green architecture/building, technologies, optimization, strategies, fuzzy techniques, models

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Authors: Ingy N. Bkrey, Ahmed A. Moniem

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We succeeded to produce a high performance and flexible graphene/Manganese dioxide (G/MnO2) electrode coated on flexible polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrate. The graphene film is initially synthesized by drop-casting the graphene oxide (GO) solution on the PET substrate, followed by simultaneous reduction and patterning of the dried film using carbon dioxide (CO2) laser beam with power of 1.8 W. Potentiostatic Anodic Deposition method was used to deposit thin film of MnO2 with different loading mass 10 – 50 and 100 μg.cm-2 on the pre-prepared graphene film. The electrodes were fully characterized in terms of structure, morphology, and electrochemical performance. A maximum specific capacitance of 973 F.g-1 was attributed when depositing 50 μg.cm-2 MnO2 on the laser reduced graphene oxide rGO (or G/50MnO2) and over 92% of its initial capacitance was retained after 1000 cycles. The good electrochemical performance and long-term cycling stability make our proposed approach a promising candidate in the supercapacitor applications.

Keywords: electrode deposition, flexible, graphene oxide, graphene, high power CO2 Laser, MnO2

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Authors: Gokcen Ogruk-Maz, Sinan Yildirim

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Introduction: Exchange rate forecasting is pivotal for informed financial decision-making, encompassing risk management, investment strategies, and international trade planning. However, traditional forecasting models often fail to capture the complexity and volatility of currency markets. This study explores the potential of ensemble learning techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and AdaBoost to enhance the accuracy and robustness of exchange rate predictions. Research Objectives The primary objective is to evaluate the performance of ensemble methods in comparison to traditional econometric models such as Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, Purchasing Power Parity, and Monetary Models. By integrating advanced machine learning techniques with fundamental macroeconomic indicators, this research seeks to identify optimal approaches for predicting exchange rate movements across major currency pairs. Methodology: Using historical exchange rate data and economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, money supply, and GDP, the study develops forecasting models leveraging ensemble techniques. Comparative analysis is performed against traditional models and hybrid approaches incorporating Facebook Prophet, Artificial Neural Networks, and XGBoost. The models are evaluated using statistical metrics like Mean Squared Error, Theil Ratio, and Diebold-Mariano tests across five currency pairs (JPY to USD, AUD to USD, CAD to USD, GBP to USD, and NZD to USD). Preliminary Results: Results indicate that ensemble learning models consistently outperform traditional methods in predictive accuracy. XGBoost shows the strongest performance among the techniques evaluated, achieving significant improvements in forecast precision with consistently low p-values and Theil Ratios. Hybrid models integrating macroeconomic fundamentals into machine learning frameworks further enhance predictive accuracy. Discussion: The findings show the potential of ensemble methods to address the limitations of traditional models by capturing non-linear relationships and complex dynamics in exchange rate movements. While Random Forest and Gradient Boosting are effective, the superior performance of XGBoost suggests that its capacity for handling sparse and irregular data offers a distinct advantage in financial forecasting. Conclusion and Implications: This research demonstrates that ensemble learning techniques, particularly when combined with traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, provide a robust framework for improving exchange rate forecasting. The study offers actionable insights for financial practitioners and policymakers, emphasizing the value of integrating machine learning approaches into predictive modeling for monetary economics.

Keywords: exchange rate forecasting, ensemble learning, financial modeling, machine learning, monetary economics, XGBoost

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Authors: Hamid R. Lashgarian Azad, Seyed N. Shetab Boushehri

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Wireless sensor networks (WSN) have become progressively popular due to their wide range of applications. Wireless Sensor Network is made of numerous tiny sensor nodes that are battery-powered. It is a very significant problem to maximize the lifetime of wireless sensor networks. In this paper, we propose a two-stage protocol based on an imperialist competitive algorithm (2S-ICA) to solve a sensor network optimization problem. The energy of the sensors can be greatly reduced and the lifetime of the network reduced by long communication distances between the sensors and the sink. We can minimize the overall communication distance considerably, thereby extending the lifetime of the network lifetime through connecting sensors into a series of independent clusters using 2SICA. Comparison results of the proposed protocol and LEACH protocol, which is common to solving WSN problems, show that our protocol has a better performance in terms of improving network life and increasing the number of transmitted data.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, imperialist competitive algorithm, LEACH protocol, k-means clustering

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Authors: Stig H. Jørgensen, Trond Nordfjærn, Øyvind Teige Hedenstrøm, Torbjørn Rundmo

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The aim of the paper is to estimate and forecast road traffic injuries in the coming 10-15 years given new targets in urban transport policy and shifts of mode of transport, including injury cross-effects of mode changes. The paper discusses possibilities and limitations in measuring and quantifying possible injury reductions. Injury data (killed and seriously injured road users) from six urban areas in Norway from 1998-2012 (N= 4709 casualties) form the basis for estimates of changing injury patterns. For the coming period calculation of number of injuries and injury rates by type of road user (categories of motorized versus non-motorized) by sex, age and type of road are made. A prognosticated population increase (25 %) in total population within 2025 in the six urban areas will curb the proceeded fall in injury figures. However, policy strategies and measures geared towards a stronger modal shift from use of private vehicles to safer public transport (bus, train) will modify this effect. On the other side will door to door transport (pedestrians on their way to/from public transport nodes) imply a higher exposure for pedestrians (bikers) converting from private vehicle use (including fall accidents not registered as traffic accidents). The overall effect is the sum of these modal shifts in the increasing urban population and in addition diminishing return to the majority of road safety countermeasures has also to be taken into account. The paper demonstrates how uncertainties in the various estimates (prediction factors) on increasing injuries as well as decreasing injury figures may partly offset each other. The paper discusses road safety policy and welfare consequences of transport mode shift, including reduced use of private vehicles, and further environmental impacts. In this regard, safety and environmental issues will as a rule concur. However pursuing environmental goals (e.g. improved air quality, reduced co2 emissions) encouraging more biking may generate more biking injuries. The study was given financial grants from the Norwegian Research Council’s Transport Safety Program.

Keywords: road injuries, forecasting, reduced private care use, urban, Norway

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Authors: Yonas Masresha Aymeku

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The purpose of capacity modelling at U-turns is to develop a relationship between capacity and its geometric characteristics. In fact, the few models available for the estimation of capacity at different transportation facilities do not provide specific guidelines for median openings. For this reason, an effort is made to estimate the capacity by collecting the data sets from median openings at different lane roads in Hyderabad City, India. Wide difference (43% -59%) among the capacity values estimated by the existing models shows the limitation to consider for mixed traffic situations. Thus, a distinct model is proposed for the estimation of the capacity of U-turn vehicles at median openings considering mixed traffic conditions, which would further prompt to investigate the effect of different factors that might affect the capacity.

Keywords: geometric, guiddelines, median, vehicles

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Authors: Malathi Balakrishnan, Gananathan M. Nadarajah, Saraswathy Vellasamy, Evelyn Gnanam William George

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The purpose of the study is to explore how the fun game-learning approach enhances teacher trainers’ higher order thinking skills. Two-day fun filled fun game learning-approach was introduced to teacher trainers as a Continuous Professional Development Program (CPD). 26 teacher trainers participated in this Transformation of Teaching and Learning Fun Way Program, organized by Institute of Teacher Education Malaysia. Qualitative research technique was adopted as the researchers observed the participants’ higher order thinking skills developed during the program. Data were collected from observational checklist; interview transcriptions of four participants and participants’ reflection notes. All the data were later analyzed with NVivo data analysis process. The finding of this study presented five main themes, which are critical thinking, hands on activities, creating, application and use of technology. The studies showed that the teacher trainers’ higher order thinking skills were enhanced after the two-day CPD program. Therefore, Institute of Teacher Education will have more success using the fun way game-learning approach to develop higher order thinking skills among its teacher trainers who can implement these skills to their trainee teachers in future. This study also added knowledge to Constructivism learning theory, which will further highlight the prominence of the fun way learning approach to enhance higher order thinking skills.

Keywords: constructivism, game-learning approach, higher order thinking skill, teacher trainer

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Khalida Douibi, Rodrigo Balp, Solène Le Bars

Abstract:

In the medical field, applications related to human experiments are frequently linked to reduced samples size, which makes the training of machine learning models quite sensitive and therefore not very robust nor generalizable. This is notably the case in Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) studies, where the sample size rarely exceeds 20 subjects or a few number of trials. To address this problem, several resampling approaches are often used during the data preparation phase, which is an overly critical step in a data science analysis process. One of the naive approaches that is usually applied by data scientists consists in the transformation of the entire database before the resampling phase. However, this can cause model’ s performance to be incorrectly estimated when making predictions on unseen data. In this paper, we explored the effect of data leakage observed during our BCI experiments for device control through the real-time classification of SSVEPs (Steady State Visually Evoked Potentials). We also studied potential ways to ensure optimal validation of the classifiers during the calibration phase to avoid overfitting. The results show that the scaling step is crucial for some algorithms, and it should be applied after the resampling phase to avoid data leackage and improve results.

Keywords: data leackage, data science, machine learning, SSVEP, BCI, overfitting

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: L. Yettou

Abstract:

In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models , level density, level density a-parameter., Empire code, Talys code.

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Sylvia Mac

Abstract:

This ethnographic case study examines disaster capitalism, neoliberal market-based school reforms, and disability through the lens of Disability Studies in Education. More specifically, it explores neoliberalism and special education at a small, urban charter school in a large city in California and the (re)production of social inequality. The study uses Sociology of Special Education to examine the ways in which special education is used to sort and stratify disabled students. At a time when rhetoric surrounding public schools is framed in catastrophic and dismal language in order to justify the privatization of public education, small urban charter schools must be examined to learn if they are living up to their promise or acting as another way to maintain economic and racial segregation. The study concludes that neoliberal contexts threaten successful inclusive education and normalize poor, disabled students’ continued low achievement and poor post-secondary outcomes. This ethnographic case study took place at a small urban charter school in a large city in California. Participants included three special education students, the special education teacher, the special education assistant, a regular education teacher, and the two founders and charter writers. The school claimed to have a push-in model of special education where all special education students were fully included in the general education classroom. Although presented as fully inclusive, some special education students also attended a pull-out class called Study Skills. The study found that inclusion and neoliberalism are differing ideologies that cannot co-exist. Successful inclusive environments cannot thrive while under the influences of neoliberal education policies such as efficiency and cost-cutting. Additionally, the push for students to join the global knowledge economy means that more and more low attainers are further marginalized and kept in poverty. At this school, neoliberal ideology eclipsed the promise of inclusive education for special education students. This case study has shown the need for inclusive education to be interrogated through lenses that consider macro factors, such as neoliberal ideology in public education, as well as the emerging global knowledge economy and increasing income inequality. Barriers to inclusion inside the school, such as teachers’ attitudes, teacher preparedness, and school infrastructure paint only part of the picture. Inclusive education is also threatened by neoliberal ideology that shifts the responsibility from the state to the individual. This ideology is dangerous because it reifies the stereotypes of disabled students as lazy, needs drains on already dwindling budgets. If these stereotypes persist, inclusive education will have a difficult time succeeding. In order to more fully examine the ways in which inclusive education can become truly emancipatory, we need more analysis on the relationship between neoliberalism, disability, and special education.

Keywords: case study, disaster capitalism, inclusive education, neoliberalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 226