Search results for: likelihood estimation

Authors: Payel Ghosh, Rama Chandra Pradhan, Sabyasachi Mishra

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Jamun (Syzygium cuminii L.) is one of the important indigenous minor fruit with high medicinal value. The jamun cultivation is unorganized and there is huge loss of this fruit every year. The perishable nature of the fruit makes its postharvest management further difficult. Due to the strong cell wall structure of pectin-protein bonds and hard seeds, extraction of juice becomes difficult. Enzymatic treatment has been commercially used for improvement of juice quality with high yield. The objective of the study was to optimize the best treatment method for juice extraction. Enzymes (Pectinase and Tannase) from different stains had been used and for each enzyme, best result obtained by using response surface methodology. Optimization had been done on the basis of physicochemical property, nutritional property, sensory quality and cost estimation. According to quality aspect, cost analysis and sensory evaluation, the optimizing enzymatic treatment was obtained by Pectinase from Aspergillus aculeatus strain. The optimum condition for the treatment was 44 ^oC with 80 minute with a concentration of 0.05% (w/w). At these conditions, 75% of yield with turbidity of 32.21NTU, clarity of 74.39%T, polyphenol content of 115.31 mg GAE/g, protein content of 102.43 mg/g have been obtained with a significant difference in overall acceptability.

Keywords: enzymatic treatment, Jamun, optimization, physicochemical property, sensory analysis

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Authors: Aulon Shabani, Denis Panxhi, Orion Zavalani

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This paper presents the modelling and development of a simulator for residential electrical appliances. The simulator is developed on MATLAB providing the possibility to analyze and simulate energy consumption of frequently used home appliances in Albania. Modelling of devices considers the impact of different factors, mentioning occupant behavior and climacteric conditions. Most devices are modeled as an electric circuit, and the electric energy consumption is estimated by the solutions of the guiding differential equations. The provided models refer to devices like a dishwasher, oven, water heater, air conditioners, light bulbs, television, refrigerator water, and pump. The proposed model allows us to simulate beforehand the energetic behavior of the largest consumption home devices to estimate peak consumption and improving its reduction. Simulated home prototype results are compared to real measurement of a considered typical home. Obtained results from simulator framework compared to monitored typical household using EmonTxV3 show the effectiveness of the proposed simulation. This conclusion will help for future simulation of a large group of typical household for a better understanding of peak consumption.

Keywords: electrical appliances, energy management, modelling, peak estimation, simulation, smart home

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Authors: Lamis Naddaf, Yuval Tabach

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We identified missense genetic variants with the potential to enhance resistance against cancer. Such a field has not been widely explored as researchers tend to investigate the mutations that cause diseases, in response to the suffering of patients, rather than those mutations that protect from them. In conjunction with the genomic revolution and the advances in genetic engineering and synthetic biology, identifying the protective variants will increase the power of genotype-phenotype predictions and have significant implications for improved risk estimation, diagnostics, prognosis, and even personalized therapy and drug discovery. To approach our goal, we systematically investigated the sites of the coding genomes and selected the alleles that showed a correlation with the species’ cancer resistance. Interestingly, we found several amino acids that are more generally preferred (like the Proline) or avoided (like the Cysteine) by the resistant species. Furthermore, Cancer resistance in mammals and reptiles is significantly predicted by the number of the predicted protecting variants (PVs) a species has. Moreover, PVs-enriched-genes are enriched in pathways relevant to tumor suppression. For example, they are enriched in the Hedgehog signaling and silencing pathways, which its improper activation is associated with the most common form of cancer malignancy. We also showed that the PVs are mostly more abundant in healthy people compared to cancer patients within different human races.

Keywords: cancer resistance, protecting variant, naked mole rat, comparative genomics

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Authors: Yousif Mohamed Y. Abdallah

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This is an experimental study deals with detection, measurement and analysis of the periodic physiological organ motion during external beam radiotherapy; to improve the accuracy of the radiation field placement, and to reduce the exposure of healthy tissue during radiation treatments. The importance of this study is to detect the maximum path of the mobile structures during radiotherapy delivery, to define the planning target volume (PTV) and irradiated volume during both inspiration and expiration period and to verify the target volume. In addition to its role to highlight the importance of the application of Intense Guided Radiotherapy (IGRT) methods in the field of radiotherapy. The results showed (body contour was equally (3.17 + 0.23 mm), for left lung displacement reading (2.56 + 0.99 mm) and right lung is (2.42 + 0.77 mm) which the radiation oncologist to take suitable countermeasures in case of significant errors. In addition, the use of the image registration technique for automatic position control is predicted potential motion. The motion ranged between 2.13 mm and 12.2 mm (low and high). In conclusion, individualized assessment of tumor mobility can improve the accuracy of target areas definition in patients undergo Sterostatic RT for stage I, II and III lung cancer (NSCLC). Definition of the target volume based on a single CT scan with a margin of 10 mm is clearly inappropriate.

Keywords: respiratory motion, external beam radiotherapy, image processing, lung

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

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Authors: Neeraj Gupta, Jitendra Mahakud

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The banking system plays a major role in the Indian economy. Banking system is the payment gateway of most of the financial transactions. Banking has gone a major transition that is still in progress. Recent banking reforms after liberalization in 1991 have led to the establishment of the foreign banks in the country. The foreign banks are not listed in the Indian stock markets and have increased the competition leading to the capture of the significant share in the revenue from the public sector banks which are still the major players in the Indian banking sector. The performance of the banking sector depends on the internal (bank specific) as well as the external (market specific and macroeconomic) factors. Profitability in banking sector is affected by numerous factors which can be internal or external. The present study examines these internal and external factors which are likely to effect the profitablilty of the Indian banks. The sample consists of a panel dataset of 64 commercial banks in India, consisting of 1088 observations over the years from 1998 to 2016. The GMM dynamic panel estimation given by Arellano and Bond has been used. The study revealed that the variables capital adequacy ratio, deposit, age, labour productivity, non-performing asset, inflation and concentration have significant effect on performance measured.

Keywords: banks in India, bank performance, bank productivity, banking management

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Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

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One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: Crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Iran using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen’s maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in VECM suggests that all energy consumption variables in this study have significant impacts on GDP in the long term. The consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil and natural gas decrease GDP, while the coal and electricity use enhanced the GDP between 1980-2010 in Iran. In the short term, only electricity use enhances the GDP as well as its long-run effects. All variables of this study, except the CO2 emissions, show significant effects on the GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in VECM suggests that the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil and natural gas use have positive impacts on the GDP while the consumptions of electricity and coal have adverse impacts on the GDP in the long term. In the short run, electricity use enhances the GDP over period of 1980-2010 in Iran. Overall, the results partly support arguments that there are relationships between energy use and economic output, but the associations can be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Iran over period of 1980-2010. However, there is no significant relationship between the CO2 emissions and the GDP and between the CO2 emissions and the energy use both in the short term and long term.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Iran, time series analysis

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Heiko Diefenbach, Christoph H. Glock

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Order picking, i.e., the order-based retrieval of items in a warehouse, is an important time- and cost-intensive process for many logistic systems. Despite the ongoing trend of automation, most order picking systems are still manual picker-to-parts systems, where human pickers walk through the warehouse to collect ordered items. Human work in warehouses is not free from errors, and order pickers may at times pick the wrong or the incorrect number of items. Errors can cause additional costs and significant correction efforts. Moreover, age might increase a person’s likelihood to make mistakes. Hence, the negative impact of picking errors might increase for an aging workforce currently witnessed in many regions globally. A significant amount of research has focused on making order picking systems more efficient. Among other factors, storage assignment, i.e., the assignment of items to storage locations (e.g., shelves) within the warehouse, has been subject to optimization. Usually, the objective is to assign items to storage locations such that order picking times are minimized. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research concerned with picking errors and respective prevention approaches. This paper hypothesize that the storage assignment of items can affect the probability of pick errors. For example, storing similar-looking items apart from one other might reduce confusion. Moreover, storing items that are hard to count or require a lot of counting at easy-to-access and easy-to-comprehend self heights might reduce the probability to pick the wrong number of items. Based on this hypothesis, the paper discusses how to incorporate error-prevention measures into mathematical models for storage assignment optimization. Various approaches with respective benefits and shortcomings are presented and mathematically modeled. To investigate the newly developed models further, they are compared to conventional storage assignment strategies in a computational study. The study specifically investigates how the importance of error prevention increases with pickers being more prone to errors due to age, for example. The results suggest that considering error-prevention measures for storage assignment can reduce error probabilities with only minor decreases in picking efficiency. The results might be especially relevant for an aging workforce.

Keywords: an aging workforce, error prevention, order picking, storage assignment

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Authors: Cosmas Nathanailides, Fotini Kakali, Kostas Karipoglou

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The filleting yield and the chemical composition of farmed sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax); rainbow trout (Oncorynchus mykiss) and meagre (Argyrosomus regius) was investigated in farmed fish in NW Greece. The results provide an estimate of the quantity of fish required to produce one kilogram of fillet weight, an estimation which is required for the operational management of fish processing companies. Furthermore in this work, the ratio of feed input required to produce one kilogram of fish fillet (FFCR) is presented for the first time as a useful indicator of the ecological footprint of consuming farmed fish. The lowest lipid content appeared in meagre (1,7%) and the highest in trout (4,91%). The lowest fillet yield and fillet yield feed conversion ratio (FYFCR) was in meagre (FY=42,17%, FFCR=2,48), the best fillet yield (FY=53,8%) and FYFCR (2,10) was exhibited in farmed rainbow trout. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund – ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: ARCHIMEDES III. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Keywords: farmed fish, flesh quality, filleting yield, lipid

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Authors: Abdul Hakim Chikho

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Most international codes allow the use of an equivalent lateral load method for designing practical buildings to withstand earthquake actions. This method requires calculating an approximation to the fundamental mode period of vibrations of these buildings. Several empirical equations have been suggested to calculate approximations to the fundamental periods of different types of structures. Most of these equations are knowing to provide an only crude approximation to the required fundamental periods and repeating the calculation utilizing a more accurate formula is usually required. In this paper, a new formula to calculate a satisfactory approximation of the fundamental period of a practical building is proposed. This formula takes into account the mass and the stiffness of the building therefore, it is more logical than the conventional empirical equations. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed formula, several examples have been solved. In these examples, calculating the fundamental mode periods of several farmed buildings utilizing the proposed formula and the conventional empirical equations has been accomplished. Comparing the obtained results with those obtained from a dynamic computer has shown that the proposed formula provides a more accurate estimation of the fundamental periods of practical buildings. Since the proposed method is still simple to use and requires only a minimum computing effort, it is believed to be ideally suited for design purposes.

Keywords: earthquake, fundamental mode period, design, building

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Estibe Dagne Mekonnen

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In recent years, the prevalence of undernourishment was 30 percent for sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 16 percent for Asia and the Pacific (Ali, 2011). In Ethiopia, almost 40 percent of the total population in the country and 57 percent of Addis Ababa population lives below the international poverty line of US$ 1.25 per day (UNICEF, 2009). This study aims to analyze the determinant of household food secrity in Addis Ababa city administration. Primary data were collected from a survey of 256 households in the selected sub-city, namely Addis Ketema, Arada, and Kolfe Keranio, in the year 2022. Both Purposive and multi-stage cluster random sampling procedures were employed to select study areas and respondents. Descriptive statistics and order logistic regression model were used to test the formulated hypotheses. The result reveals that out of the total sampled households, 25% them were food secured, 13% were mildly food insecure, 26% were moderately food insecure and 36% were severely food insecure. The study indicates that household family size, house ownership, household income, household food source, household asset possession, household awareness on inflation, household access to social protection program, household access to credit and saving and household access to training and supervision on food security have a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of household food security status. However, marital status of household head, employment sector of household head, dependency ratio and household’s nonfood expenditure has a negative and significant influence on household food security status. The study finally suggests that the government in collaboration with financial institutions and NGO should work on sustaining household food security by creating awareness, providing credit, facilitate rural-urban linkage between producer and consumer and work on urban infrastructure improvement. Moreover, the governments also work closely and monitor consumer good suppliers, if possible find a way to subsidize consumable goods to more insecure households and make them to be food secured. Last but not least, keeping this country’s peace will play a crucial role to sustain food security.

Keywords: determinants, household, food security, order logit model, Addis Ababa

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Zahra Mila Elmi, Mahsa Khanekheshi

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Almost half of the population and potential manpower in the country and rural areas are women. Manpower especially educated people, plays an important role in the production and economic growth. Also, the potential of rural areas to create employment should not be overlooked. In this research, the effects of socio-economic and demographic factors on women's economic participation in rural areas of Iran's provinces will be studied. Therefore, this study was performed by using the results of the rural households income and expenditure surveys -has been taken in 2016- in the framework of pseudo panel data. This study used the logit model and the maximum likelihood method to study the rural women's participation, with 28,265 observations. Results show the inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of female participation; In other words, young women are more likely to participate in labor markets more than the other groups. Divorced and single woman has more chance of participation in comparison with who was being married. With increasing the divorce rate and singleness in Iran, economic policymakers must provide appropriate solutions for this challenge in the coming years. On the base of the results, being a student and the presence of an infant under the age of 6 in the household has a negative effect on the possibility of women's participation in the labor market. The women's education level has a U-shaped relationship with their participation rate. Illiteracy and high education have a strong positive effect on the economic participation of rural women. This shows the dual labor market for women in Iran. Illiterate women are attracted to service jobs, and educated woman are more attracted to education and health jobs. Increasing household income has a small but positive and significant effect on the probability of rural female participation. In the overlook, due to the frequency of the women population in the age group of 25 to 35 years, and more willingness of women in the age 35 to 44 years to participate in the labor market, and studying ofa significant portion of the rural women, the increase of rural female participation is expected in the years ahead. Thus, it is expected policy maker to create new job opportunities for the employment of educated women and take the necessary plan to improve the current situation for women.

Keywords: female participation rate, rural area, provincial data, pseudo-panel data method

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Authors: Lizhou Chen, Abdelhamid Belgaid, Assem Elsayed, Xiaoming Yang

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Compression index is essential in foundation settlement calculation. The traditional method for determining compression index is consolidation test which is expensive and time consuming. Many researchers have used regression methods to develop empirical equations for predicting compression index from soil properties. Based on a large number of compression index data collected from consolidation tests, the accuracy of some popularly empirical equations were assessed. It was found that primary compression index is significantly overestimated in some equations while it is underestimated in others. The sensitivity analyses of soil parameters including water content, liquid limit and void ratio were performed. The results indicate that the compression index obtained from void ratio is most accurate. The ANOVA (analysis of variance) demonstrates that the equations with multiple soil parameters cannot provide better predictions than the equations with single soil parameter. In other words, it is not necessary to develop the relationships between compression index and multiple soil parameters. Meanwhile, it was noted that secondary compression index is approximately 0.7-5.0% of primary compression index with an average of 2.0%. In the end, the proposed prediction equations using power regression technique were provided that can provide more accurate predictions than those from existing equations.

Keywords: compression index, clay, settlement, consolidation, secondary compression index, soil parameter

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Authors: Manana Kvetenadze, Dali Nikolaishvili

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The study revealed the territorial changes of Georgia before the Soviet and Post-Soviet periods. This includes the estimation of the country's borders, its administrative-territorial arrangement change as well as the establishment of territorial losses. Georgia’s old and new borders marked on the map are of great interest. The new boundary shows the condition of 1922 year, following the Soviet period. Neither on this map nor in other works Ivane Javakhishvili talks about what he implies in the old borders, though it is evident that this is the Pre-Soviet boundary until 1921 – i.e., before the period when historical Tao, Zaqatala, Lore, Karaia represented the parts of Georgia. According to cartometric-geographical terms, the work presents detailed analysis of Georgia’s borders, along with this the comparison of research results has been carried out: 1) At the boundary line on Soviet topographic maps, the maps of 100,000; 50,000 and 25,000 scales are used; 2) According to Ivane Javakhishvili’s work ('The borders of Georgia in terms of historical and contemporary issues'). During that research, we used multi-disciplined methodology and software. We used Arc GIS for Georeferencing maps, and after that, we compare all post-Soviet Union maps, in order to determine how the borders have changed. During this work, we also use many historical data. The features of the spatial distribution of the territorial administrative units of Georgia, as well as the distribution of administrative-territorial units of the objects depicted on the map, have been established. The results obtained are presented in the forms of thematic maps and diagrams.

Keywords: border, GIS, georgia, historical cartography, old maps

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Authors: Michael Josef Schwerer

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Background: The identification of unknown victims from mass disasters, violent crimes, or terrorist attacks is frequently facilitated through information from missing persons lists, portrait photos, old or recent pictures showing unique characteristics of a person such as scars or tattoos, or simply reference samples from blood relatives for DNA analysis. In contrast, the identification or at least the characterization of an unknown perpetrator from criminal or terrorist actions remains challenging, particularly in the absence of material or data for comparison, such as fingerprints, which had been previously stored in criminal records. In scenarios that result in high levels of destruction of the perpetrator’s corpse, for instance, blast or fire events, the chance for a positive identification using standard techniques is further impaired. Objectives: This study shows the forensic genetic procedures in the Legal Medicine Service of the German Air Force for the identification of unknown individuals, including such cases in which reference samples are not available. Scenarios requiring such efforts predominantly involve aircraft crash investigations, which are routinely carried out by the German Air Force Centre of Aerospace Medicine as one of the Institution’s essential missions. Further, casework by military police or military intelligence is supported based on administrative cooperation. In the talk, data from study projects, as well as examples from real casework, will be demonstrated and discussed with the audience. Methods: Forensic genetic identification in our laboratories involves the analysis of Short Tandem Repeats and Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in nuclear DNA along with mitochondrial DNA haplotyping. Extended DNA analysis involves phenotypic markers for skin, hair, and eye color together with the investigation of a person’s biogeographic ancestry. Assessment of the biological age of an individual employs CpG-island methylation analysis using bisulfite-converted DNA. Forensic Investigative Genealogy assessment allows the detection of an unknown person’s blood relatives in reference databases. Technically, end-point-PCR, real-time PCR, capillary electrophoresis, pyrosequencing as well as next generation sequencing using flow-cell-based and chip-based systems are used. Results and Discussion: Optimization of DNA extraction from various sources, including difficult matrixes like formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues, degraded specimens from decomposed bodies or from decedents exposed to blast or fire events, provides soil for successful PCR amplification and subsequent genetic profiling. For cases with extremely low yields of extracted DNA, whole genome preamplification protocols are successfully used, particularly regarding genetic phenotyping. Improved primer design for CpG-methylation analysis, together with validated sampling strategies for the analyzed substrates from, e.g., lymphocyte-rich organs, allows successful biological age estimation even in bodies with highly degraded tissue material. Conclusions: Successful identification of unknown individuals or at least their phenotypic characterization using pigmentation markers together with age-informative methylation profiles, possibly supplemented by family tree search employing Forensic Investigative Genealogy, can be provided in specialized laboratories. However, standard laboratory procedures must be adapted to work with difficult and highly degraded sample materials.

Keywords: identification, forensic genetics, phenotypic markers, CPG methylation, biological age estimation, forensic investigative genealogy

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Authors: Mohamad Shamsuri Juhari

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Fathers who positively involve themselves in their children’s lives will have had a constructive influence on the latter’s social, behavioural, and psychological development. This paper will share the preliminary findings of an ongoing research project which investigates Singaporean fathers from the nation’s minority Malay-Muslim community who commit the reverse, that is, it intends to study the reasons behind these fathers’ non-involvement during the period of their children’s developing years be it through absence, disinterest or ignorance. For instance, children from homes with absentee fathers are more likely to develop deficiencies in attitude and conduct. A father’s negative show of parental skills can also cause setbacks in the child’s education, economic instability in the latter’s future family life, as well as the likelihood of an ensuing intergenerational transmission of criminal behaviour. In the context of the minority Singaporean Malay-Muslim community, the need to investigate the challenges faced by fathers from the ethnic group in carrying out their parental roles arose due to the perceptible rise in statistics reflecting delinquency among its youths. This has resulted in other associated issues such as teenage pregnancies (and the subsequent cyclical patterns of divorce and single motherhood), over-representation in the data for drug offences, and under-representation in statistics reflecting academic achievement. While other factors are known to be involved, these negative outcomes have also been attributed to the lack of fatherly guidance in the affected Malay families. This still-ongoing research project is being carried out in two phases: The first by means of secondary research as well as exploratory data collection via roundtable and focus group discussions with fathers from diverse socio-economic backgrounds. This sets the way for the second phase in which a survey will be undertaken, followed by a series of in-depth face-to-face interviews. The research findings will then be translated into intervention initiatives to overcome the identified challenges. Based on the results collated from Phase 1 of the research, this paper will share a ‘first look’ on the challenges to effective parenting faced by Malay-Muslim fathers in Singapore specifically those relating to the socio-cultural domains of attitude, knowledge, and practice.

Keywords: Malay fathers, socio-cultural domains, attitude, knowledge, practice

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Authors: Jafar Mortadha, Imran Qureshi

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This research explains and compares the modern techniques used for measuring the flow angles of a flowing fluid with the traditional technique of using multi-hole pressure probes. In particular, the focus of the study is on four-hole probes, which offer great reliability and benefits in several applications where the use of modern measurement techniques is either inconvenient or impractical. Due to modern advancements in manufacturing, small multi-hole pressure probes can be made with high precision, which eliminates the need for calibrating every manufactured probe. This study aims to improve the range of calibration maps for a four-hole probe to allow high flow angles to be measured accurately. The research methodology comprises a literature review of the successful calibration definitions that have been implemented on five-hole probes. These definitions are then adapted and applied on a four-hole probe using a set of raw pressures data. A comparison of the different definitions will be carried out in Matlab and the results will be analyzed to determine the best calibration definition. Taking simplicity of implementation into account as well as the reliability of flow angles estimation, an adapted technique from a research paper written in 2002 offered the most promising outcome. Consequently, the method is seen as a good enhancement for four-hole probes and it can substitute for the existing calibration definitions that offer less accuracy.

Keywords: calibration definitions, calibration maps, flow measurement techniques, four-hole probes, multi-hole pressure probes

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Authors: Okay Gunes

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In this article, for the first time in the literature for this subject we propose a new method for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period of time is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure well-being inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg uncertainty principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality

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Authors: Roudane Mohamed

Abstract:

In this study we are interested in improving the efficiency of a steam boiler to 4.5T/h and minimize fume discharge temperature by the addition of a heat exchanger against the current in the energy system, the output of the boiler. The mathematical approach to the problem is based on the use of heat transfer by convection and conduction equations. These equations have been chosen because of their extensive use in a wide range of application. A software and developed for solving the equations governing these phenomena and the estimation of the thermal characteristics of boiler through the study of the thermal characteristics of the heat exchanger by both LMTD and NUT methods. Subsequently, an analysis of the thermal performance of the steam boiler by studying the influence of different operating parameters on heat flux densities, temperatures, exchanged power and performance was carried out. The study showed that the behavior of the boiler is largely influenced. In the first regime (P = 3.5 bar), the boiler efficiency has improved significantly from 93.03 to 99.43 at the rate of 6.47% and 4.5%. For maximum speed, the change is less important, it is of the order of 1.06%. The results obtained in this study of great interest to industrial utilities equipped with smoke tube boilers for the preheating air temperature intervene to calculate the actual temperature of the gas so the heat exchanged will be increased and minimize temperature smoke discharge. On the other hand, this work could be used as a model of computation in the design process.

Keywords: numerical simulation, efficiency, fire tube, heat exchanger, convection and conduction

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Authors: Jiamin Huang, Shuliang Gui, Zengshan Tian, Fei Yan, Xiaodong Wu

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In recent years, with the rapid development of radio frequency technology, the differences between radar sensing and wireless communication in terms of receiving and sending channels, signal processing, data management and control are gradually shrinking. There has been a trend of integrated communication radar sensing. However, most of the existing radar imaging technologies based on communication signals are combined with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging, which does not conform to the practical application case of the integration of communication and radar. Therefore, in this paper proposes a high-precision imaging method using communication signals based on the imaging mechanism of inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) imaging. This method makes full use of the structural characteristics of the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal, so the sidelobe effect in distance compression is removed and combines radon transform and Fractional Fourier Transform (FrFT) parameter estimation methods to achieve ISAR imaging of non-cooperative targets. The simulation experiment and measured results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method, and prove its broad application prospects in the field of intelligent transportation.

Keywords: integration of communication and radar, OFDM, radon, FrFT, ISAR

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Authors: Pi-Hsia Hung

Abstract:

The development of mathematical competency has individual benefits as well as benefits to the wider society. Children who begin school behind their peers in their understanding of number, counting, and simple arithmetic are at high risk of staying behind throughout their schooling. The development of effective strategies for improving the educational trajectory of these individuals will be contingent on identifying areas of early quantitative knowledge that influence later mathematics achievement. A computer-based quantity assessment was developed in this study to investigate the characteristics of 2nd and 3rd grade slow learners in quantity. The concept of quantification involves understanding measurements, counts, magnitudes, units, indicators, relative size, and numerical trends and patterns. Fifty-five tasks of quantitative reasoning—such as number sense, mental calculation, estimation and assessment of reasonableness of results—are included as quantity problem solving. Thus, quantity is defined in this study as applying knowledge of number and number operations in a wide variety of authentic settings. Around 1000 students were tested and categorized into 4 different performance levels. Students’ quantity ability correlated higher with their school math grade than other subjects. Around 20% students are below basic level. The intervention design implications of the preliminary item map constructed are discussed.

Keywords: mathematics assessment, mathematical cognition, quantity, number sense, validity

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Authors: Gautam Kumar Saharia, Sagardeep Talukdar, Riki Dutta, Sudipta Nandy

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The physics-informed neural network (PINN) method opens up an approach for numerically solving nonlinear partial differential equations leveraging fast calculating speed and high precession of modern computing systems. We construct the PINN based on a strong universal approximation theorem and apply the initial-boundary value data and residual collocation points to weekly impose initial and boundary conditions to the neural network and choose the optimization algorithms adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) and Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Golfard-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm to optimize learnable parameter of the neural network. Next, we improve the PINN with a weighted loss function to obtain both the bright and dark soliton solutions of the Fokas-Lenells equation (FLE). We find the proposed scheme of adjustable weight coefficients into PINN has a better convergence rate and generalizability than the basic PINN algorithm. We believe that the PINN approach to solve the partial differential equation appearing in nonlinear optics would be useful in studying various optical phenomena.

Keywords: deep learning, optical soliton, physics informed neural network, partial differential equation

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Authors: Matt Stallwood, Michael Spearpoint

Abstract:

In 2020, the UK government announced that sales of new petrol and diesel cars would end in 2030, and battery-powered cars made up 1 in 8 new cars sold in 2021 – more than the total from the previous five years. The guidance across the UK for the fire safety design of covered car parks is changing in response to the projected rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) use. This paper discusses the current knowledge on the fire safety concerns posed by EVs, in particular those powered by lithium-ion batteries, when considering the likelihood of vehicle ignition, fire severity and spread of fire to other vehicles. The paper builds on previous work that has investigated the frequency of fires starting in cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), the hazard posed by such fires in covered car parks and the potential for neighboring vehicles to become involved in an incident. Historical data has been used to determine the ignition frequency of ICE car fires, whereas such data is scarce when it comes to EV fires. Should a fire occur, then the fire development has conventionally been assessed to match a ‘medium’ growth rate and to have a 95th percentile peak heat release of 9 MW. The paper examines recent literature in which researchers have measured the burning characteristics of EVs to assess whether these values need to be changed. These findings are used to assess the risk posed by EVs when compared to ICE vehicles. The paper examines what new design guidance is being issued by various organizations across the UK, such as fire and rescue services, insurers, local government bodies and regulators and discusses the impact these are having on the arrangement of parking bays, particularly in residential and mixed-use buildings. For example, the paper illustrates how updated guidance published by the Fire Protection Association (FPA) on the installation of sprinkler systems has increased the hazard classification of parking buildings that can have a considerable impact on the feasibility of a building to meet all its design intents when specifying water supply tanks. Another guidance on the provision of smoke ventilation systems and structural fire resistance is also presented. The paper points to where further research is needed on the fire safety risks posed by EVs in covered car parks. This will ensure that any guidance is commensurate with the need to provide an adequate level of life and property safety in the built environment.

Keywords: covered car parks, electric vehicles, fire safety, risk

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Authors: Da-Ming Huang, Ya-Ting Tsai, Shyh-Hau Wang

Abstract:

Ultrasound signals backscattered from the soft tissues are mainly depending on the size, density, distribution, and other elastic properties of scatterers in the interrogated sample volume. The quantitative analysis of ultrasonic backscattering is frequently implemented using the statistical approach due to that of backscattering signals tends to be with the nature of the random variable. Thus, the statistical analysis, such as Nakagami statistics, has been applied to characterize the density and distribution of scatterers of a sample. Yet, the accuracy of statistical analysis could be readily affected by the receiving signals associated with the nature of incident ultrasound wave and acoustical properties of samples. Thus, in the present study, efforts were made to explore such effects as the ultrasound operational modes and attenuation of biological tissue on the estimation of corresponding Nakagami statistical parameter (m parameter). In vitro measurements were performed from healthy and pathological fibrosis porcine livers using different single-element ultrasound transducers and duty cycles of incident tone burst ranging respectively from 3.5 to 7.5 MHz and 10 to 50%. Results demonstrated that the estimated m parameter tends to be sensitively affected by the use of ultrasound operational modes as well as the tissue attenuation. The healthy and pathological tissues may be characterized quantitatively by m parameter under fixed measurement conditions and proper calibration.

Keywords: ultrasound backscattering, statistical analysis, operational mode, attenuation

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Authors: Abdullah AlGhazali, Richard Fairchild, Yilmaz Guney

Abstract:

We examine the effect of managerial overconfidence on UK firms’ payout policy for the period 2000 to 2012. The analysis incorporates, in addition to common firm-specific factors, a wide range of corporate governance factors and managerial characteristics that have been documented to affect the relationship between overconfidence and payout policy. Our results are robust to several estimation considerations. The findings show that the influence of overconfident CEOs on the amount of, and the propensity to pay, dividends is significant within the UK context. Specifically, we detect that there is a reduction in dividend payments in firms managed by overconfident managers compared to their non-overconfident counterparts. Moreover, we affirm that cash flows, firm size and profitability are positively correlated, while leverage, firm growth and investment are negatively correlated with the amount of and propensity to pay dividends. Interestingly, we demonstrate that firms with the potential for undervaluation reduce dividend payments. Some of the corporate governance factors are shown to motivate firms to pay more dividends while these factors seem to have no influence on the propensity to pay dividends. The results also show that in general higher overconfidence leads to more share repurchases but the lower total payout. Overall, managerial overconfidence should be considered as an important factor influencing payout policy in addition to other known factors.

Keywords: dividends, repurchases, UK firms, overconfidence, corporate governance, undervaluation

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Authors: Waleed A. Basuliman, Khalid S. AlSaleh, Mohamed Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

Applying the anthropometric dimensions is considered one of the important factors when designing any human-machine system. In this study, the estimation of anthropometric dimensions has been improved by developing artificial neural network that aims to predict the anthropometric measurements of the male in Saudi Arabia. A total of 1427 Saudi males from age 6 to 60 participated in measuring twenty anthropometric dimensions. These anthropometric measurements are important for designing the majority of work and life applications in Saudi Arabia. The data were collected during 8 months from different locations in Riyadh City. Five of these dimensions were used as predictors variables (inputs) of the model, and the remaining fifteen dimensions were set to be the measured variables (outcomes). The hidden layers have been varied during the structuring stage, and the best performance was achieved with the network structure 6-25-15. The results showed that the developed Neural Network model was significantly able to predict the body dimensions for the population of Saudi Arabia. The network mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were found 0.0348 and 3.225 respectively. The accuracy of the developed neural network was evaluated by compare the predicted outcomes with a multiple regression model. The ANN model performed better and resulted excellent correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual dimensions.

Keywords: artificial neural network, anthropometric measurements, backpropagation, real anthropometric database

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