Search results for: regression coefficient

Authors: Azazhu Wassie

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This study tried to analyze and identify the drainage pattern and catchment characteristics of the river basin and assess the impact of the hydrologic parameters (catchment area, rainfall intensity, runoff coefficient, land use, and soil type) on the referenced study area. Since there is no river gauging station near the road, even for large rivers, rainfall-runoff models are adopted for flood estimation, i.e., for catchment areas less than 50 ha, the rational method is used; for catchment areas, less than 65 km², the SCS unit hydrograph method is used; and for catchment areas greater than 65 km², HEC-HMS is adopted for flood estimation.

Keywords: Arc GIS, catchment area, land use/land cover, peak flood, rainfall intensity

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Authors: Amir Davood Elmi

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From the earliest light microscope to the most innovative X-ray imaging techniques, all of them have refined and improved our knowledge about the organization and composition of living tissues. The old techniques are time consuming and ultimately destructive to the tissues under the examination. In recent few decades, thanks to the boost of technology, non-destructive visualization techniques, such as X-ray computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), selective plane illumination microscopy (SPIM), and optical projection tomography (OPT), have come to the forefront. Among these techniques, CT is excellent for mineralized tissues such as bone or dentine. In addition, CT it is faster than other aforementioned techniques and the sample remains intact. In this article, applications, advantages, and limitations of micro-CT is discussed, in addition to some information about micro-CT of soft tissue.

Keywords: Micro-CT, hard tissue, bone, attenuation coefficient, rapid prototyping

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Authors: Teerada Apibunyopas, Nithinant Thammakoranonta

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Many organizations bring e-Learning to use as a tool in their training and human development department. It is getting more popular because it is easy to access to get knowledge all the time and also it provides a rich content, which can develop the employees skill efficiently. This study focused on the factors that affect using e-Learning efficiently, so it will make job satisfaction increased. The questionnaires were sent to employees in large commercial banks, which use e-Learning located in Bangkok, the results from multiple linear regression analysis showed that employee’s characteristics, characteristics of e-Learning, learning and growth have influence on job satisfaction.

Keywords: e-Learning, job satisfaction, learning and growth, Bangkok

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Authors: Vhahangwele Belemu, Isaac Busayo Oluwatayo

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Post-harvest losses pose a serious challenge to smallholder fruit crop farmers, especially in the rural communities of South Africa, affecting their economic livelihoods and food security. This study investigated the post-harvest handling practices and technologies harnessed by smallholder fruit crop farmers in the Vhembe district of Limpopo province, South Africa. Data were collected on a random sample of 224 smallholder fruit crop farmers selected from the four municipalities of the district using a multistage sampling technique. Analytical tools employed include descriptive statistics and the tobit regression model. A descriptive analysis of farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics showed that a sizeable number of these farmers are still in their active working age (mean = 52 years) with more males (63.8%) than their female (36.2%) counterparts. Respondents’ distribution by educational status revealed that only a few of these had no formal education (2.2%), with the majority having secondary education (48.7%). Results of data analysis further revealed that the prominent post-harvest technologies and handling practices harnessed by these farmers include using appropriate harvesting techniques (20.5%), selling at a reduced price (19.6%), transportation consideration (18.3%), cleaning and disinfecting (17.9%), sorting and grading (16.5%), manual cleaning (15.6%) and packaging technique (11.6%) among others. The result of the Tobit regression analysis conducted to examine the determinants of post-harvest technologies and handling practices harnessed showed that age, educational status of respondents, awareness of technology/handling practices, farm size, access to credit, extension contact, and membership of association were the significant factors. The study suggests enhanced awareness creation, access to credit facility and improved access to market as important factors to consider by relevant stakeholders to assist smallholder fruit crop farmers in the study area.

Keywords: fruit crop farmers, handling practices, post harvest losses, smallholder, Vhembe District, South Africa

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Authors: Elizaveta S. Prokofyeva, Svetlana V. Maltseva, Roman D. Zaitsev

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Rapidly evolving modern data analysis technologies in healthcare play a large role in understanding the operation of the system and its characteristics. Nowadays, one of the key tasks in urban healthcare is to optimize the resource allocation. Thus, the application of data analysis in medical institutions to solve optimization problems determines the significance of this study. The purpose of this research was to establish the dependence between the indicators of the effectiveness of the medical institution and its resources. Hospital discharges by diagnosis; hospital days of in-patients and in-patient average length of stay were selected as the performance indicators and the demand of the medical facility. The hospital beds by type of care, medical technology (magnetic resonance tomography, gamma cameras, angiographic complexes and lithotripters) and physicians characterized the resource provision of medical institutions for the developed models. The data source for the research was an open database of the statistical service Eurostat. The choice of the source is due to the fact that the databases contain complete and open information necessary for research tasks in the field of public health. In addition, the statistical database has a user-friendly interface that allows you to quickly build analytical reports. The study provides information on 28 European for the period from 2007 to 2016. For all countries included in the study, with the most accurate and complete data for the period under review, predictive models were developed based on historical panel data. An attempt to improve the quality and the interpretation of the models was made by cluster analysis of the investigated set of countries. The main idea was to assess the similarity of the joint behavior of the variables throughout the time period under consideration to identify groups of similar countries and to construct the separate regression models for them. Therefore, the original time series were used as the objects of clustering. The hierarchical agglomerate algorithm k-medoids was used. The sampled objects were used as the centers of the clusters obtained, since determining the centroid when working with time series involves additional difficulties. The number of clusters used the silhouette coefficient. After the cluster analysis it was possible to significantly improve the predictive power of the models: for example, in the one of the clusters, MAPE error was only 0,82%, which makes it possible to conclude that this forecast is highly reliable in the short term. The obtained predicted values of the developed models have a relatively low level of error and can be used to make decisions on the resource provision of the hospital by medical personnel. The research displays the strong dependencies between the demand for the medical services and the modern medical equipment variable, which highlights the importance of the technological component for the successful development of the medical facility. Currently, data analysis has a huge potential, which allows to significantly improving health services. Medical institutions that are the first to introduce these technologies will certainly have a competitive advantage.

Keywords: data analysis, demand modeling, healthcare, medical facilities

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Authors: Homyr L. Garcia, Jr., Anne Margaret A. Rendon, Carla Michaela B. Taguinod

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Nothing is constant in this world but change. This is the reality wherein a lot of people fail to recognize and maybe, it is because of the fact that some see things that are happening with little value or no value at all until it’s gone. For the past years, Egypt was known for its stable government. It was able to withstand a lot of problems and crisis which challenged their country in ways which can never be imagined. In the present time, it seems like in just a snap of a finger, the said stability vanished and it was immediately replaced by a crisis which resulted to a failure in some parts of their government. In addition, this problem continued to worsen and the current situation of Egypt is just a reflection or a result of it. On the other hand, as the researchers continued to study the reasons why the government of Egypt is unstable, they concluded that there might be a possibility that they will be able to produce ways in which their country could be helped or improved. The instability of the government of Egypt is the product of combining all the problems which affects the lives of the people. Some of the reasons that the researchers found are the following: 1) unending doubts of the people regarding the ruling capacity of elected presidents, 2) removal of President Mohamed Morsi in position, 3) economic crisis, 4) a lot of protests and revolution happened, 5) resignation of the long term President Hosni Mubarak and 6) the office of the President is most likely available only to the chosen successor. Also, according to previous researches, there are two plausible scenarios for the instability of Egypt: 1) a military intervention specifically the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or SCAF, resulting from a contested succession and 2) an Islamist push for political power which highlights the claim that religion is a hindrance towards the development of their country and government. From the eight possible reasons, the researchers decided that they will be focusing on economic crisis since the instability is more clearly seen in the country’s economy which directly affects the people and the government itself. In addition, they made a hypothesis which states that stable economy is a prerequisite towards a stable government. If they will be able to show how this claim is true by using the Social Autopsy Research Design for the qualitative method and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the quantitative method, the researchers might be able to produce a proposal on how Egypt can stabilize their government and avoid such problems. Also, the hypothesis will be based from the Rational Action Theory which is a theory for understanding and modeling social and economy as well as individual behavior.

Keywords: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, rational action theory, social autopsy research design, supreme council of the armed forces (SCAF)

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Authors: Fouzia Amireche-Ziar, Ilham Mokbel, Jacques Jose

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The vapour pressures of the three binary mixtures: 1, 2- dichloroethane + 1,3-dioxolane, + 1,4-dioxane or + tetrahydropyrane, are carried out at ten temperatures ranging from 273 to 353.15 K. An accurate static device was employed for these measurements. The VLE data were reduced using the Redlich-Kister equation by taking into consideration the vapour pressure non-ideality in terms of the second molar virial coefficient. The experimental data were compared to the results predicted with the DISQUAC and Dortmund UNIFAC group contribution models for the total pressures P and the excess molar Gibbs energies GE.

Keywords: disquac model, dortmund UNIFAC model, excess molar Gibbs energies GE, VLE

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Authors: Nanditha Rajamani, Anirudhaa R. Rao, Divya Sriram

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One of the greatest difficulties in treating patients with pain is the highly subjective nature of pain sensation. The measurement of pain intensity is primarily dependent on the patient’s report, often with little physical evidence to provide objective corroboration. This is also complicated by the fact that there are only few and expensive existing technologies (Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging-fMRI). The need is thus clear and urgent for a reliable, non-invasive, non-painful, objective, readily adoptable, and coefficient diagnostic platform that provides additional diagnostic information to supplement its current regime with more information to assist doctors in diagnosing these patients. Thus, our idea of developing a pain detector was conceived to take a step further the detection and diagnosis of chronic and acute pain.

Keywords: pain sensor, microwave radiometery, pain sensation, fMRI

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Authors: K. Frahtia, I. Mihoubi, S. Picot

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Leishmaniasis is a group of parasitic disease with a varied clinical expression caused by flagellate protozoa of the Leishmania genus. These diseases are transmitted to humans and animals by the sting of a vector insect, the female sandfly. Among the groups of dipteral disease vectors, Phlebotominae occupy a prime position and play a significant role in human pathology, such as leishmaniasis that affects nearly 350 million people worldwide. The vector control operation launched by health services throughout the country proves to be effective since despite the prevalence of the disease remains high especially in rural areas, leishmaniasis appears to be declining in Algeria. In this context, this study mainly concerns molecular detection of Leishmania from the vector. Furthermore, a molecular diagnosis has also been made on skin samples taken from patients in the region of Constantine, located in the North-East of Algeria. Concerning the vector, 5858 sandflies were captured, including 4360 males and 1498 females. Male specimens were identified based on their morphological. The morphological identification highlighted the presence of the Phlebotomus genus with a prevalence of 93% against 7% represented by the Sergentomyia genus. About the identified species, P. perniciosus is the most abundant with 59.4% of the male identified population followed by P. longicuspis with 24.7% of the workforce. P. perfiliewi is poorly represented by 6.7% of specimens followed by P. papatasi with 2.2% and 1.5% S. dreyfussi. Concerning skin samples, 45/79 (56.96%) collected samples were found positive by real-time PCR. This rate appears to be in sharp decline compared to previous years (alert peak of 30,227 cases in 2005). Concerning the detection of Leishmania from sandflies by RT-PCR, the results show that 3/60 PCR performed genus are positive with melting temperatures corresponding to that of the reference strain (84.1 +/- 0.4 ° C for L. infantum). This proves that the vectors were parasitized. On the other side, identification by RT-PCR species did not give any results. This could be explained by the presence of an insufficient amount of leishmanian DNA in the vector, and therefore support the hypothesis of the regression of leishmaniasis in Constantine.

Keywords: Algeria, molecular diagnostic, phlebotomus, real time PCR

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Authors: Kadi-Hanifi Halima

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Stipa tenacissima is a plant with a big ecological value (against desertification) and economical stake (paper industry). It is important by its pastoral value due to the inflorescence. It occupied large areas between the Tellian atlas and the Saharian atlas, at the present, these areas of alfa have regressed a lot. This regression is estimated at 1% per year. The principal cause is a human responsibility. The drought is just an aggravating circumstance. The eradication of such a kind of species will have serious consequences upon the equilibrium of all the steppic ecosystem. Thus, we have thought necessary and urgent to know the alfa ecosystem, under all its aspects (climatic, floristic, and edaphic), this diagnostic could direct the fight actions against desertification

Keywords: desertification, anthropic action, soils, Stipa tenacissima

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Authors: A. V. Shelke, P. S. More

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This research aimed to study the kinetic reaction of reused cooking oil and to find the optimum condition of its process. The feedstock was collected from the street sellers and also prepared at laboratory. From this research, it is found that the kinetic reaction of reused sunflower oil (auto-oxidation) is obtained in terms of variation of the absorption coefficient of unexposed sunflower oil as 0.05 which is very close to that of exposed sunflower oil 0.075. At room temperature, the optimum intensity obtained from optical absorption spectroscopy study is 0.267 for unexposed sunflower oil and 0.194 for exposed sunflower oil. However, results indicated that FTIR spectroscopy is accurate and precise enough for such determination. Free Fatty Acid (FFA% = 026), acid ~53% and safonication ~%192 get reduce in exposed oil was investigated.

Keywords: friction, oxidation, sunflower oil, vegetable oils

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Authors: Enayat Davoudi

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This paper is about the study of media literacy and its role in Iranian society. Determine the research hypothesis by the use of James Patter theory and us stratification and also culture theory. By the use of traversal method and by the aim of the survey on 375 students in Mahmoudabad which was selected randomly, the data was gathered and analyzed by SPSS software. Coefficient alpha for Crohn Bach is used in order to reach to the justifiability of indexes. The research findings show that the variable like duration, rate and type of media use, the realization of media content, audience goal and motivation, economical and social base and the rate of education has a meaningful relation with media literacy.

Keywords: media, media literacy, Iranian society, Mahmoudabad students

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Authors: Folayele Oluyemi Akindeju, Tobi Joseph Ajoro

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The city as a complex system exhibiting chaotic behaviour is in a state of constant change, in response to prevailing social, economic, environmental and technological factors. Without adequate investigation and control mechanisms to tame the sporadic nature of growth in most urban areas of cities in developing regions, organic sprawling visibly manifests with its attendant problems, most especially at peri-urban areas. The Lagos Megacity region in southwest Nigeria, as one of the largest megacities in the world contends with the challenges of sprawling at the peri-urban areas especially along emerging transit corridors. Due to the seemingly unpredictable nature of this growth, this paper attempts a morphological investigation into the growth of peri-urban settlements along the Mowe-Ibafo transit corridor of the Megacity region over a temporal space of three decades (1984-2014). This study adopts the application of the Fractal Analysis and Regression Analysis methods through the correlation of population density and fractal dimension values to establish the pattern and nature of growth, due to the inadequacies of conventional methods of urban analysis which cannot deal with the unpredictability of such complex urban forms as the peri-urban areas. It was deduced that the dynamic urban expansion in the last three decades resulted in about 74.2% urban change rate between 1984 and 2000 and 63.4% urban change rate between 2000 and 2014. With the R2 value between the fractal dimension and population density been 1, the regression model indicates a positive correlation between Fractal Dimension (D) and Population Density (pop/km2), where the increase in the population density from 5740 pop/km2 to 8060 pop/km2 and later decrease to 7580 pop/km2 leads to an increase in the fractal dimension of urban growth from 1.451 in 1984 to 1.853 in 2014. This, therefore, justifies the ability to predict and determine the nature and direction of growth of complex entities and is sufficient to substantially suggest the need for adequate policy framework towards sustainable urban planning and infrastructural provision in the Peri-urban areas.

Keywords: fractal analysis, Lagos Megacity, peri-urban, sprawling, urban morphology

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Authors: O. R. Adeniyi, A. Ayandiji

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Losses are common in most vegetables because the fruit ripens rapidly and most plantain products can only be stored for a few days thereby limiting their utilization. Plantain (and banana) is highly perishable at the ambient temperature prevalent in the tropics. The specific objective of this study is to identify the socioeconomic characteristics of banana/plantain dealers and determine the perceived effect of the losses incurred in the process of marketing banana/plantain. The study was carried out in Ondo and Lagos states of south-western Nigeria. Purposive sampling technique was used to collect information from “Kolawole plantain depot”, the point of purchase in Ondo State and “Alamutu plantain market” in Mushin the point of sales in Lagos state. Preliminary study was conducted with the use of primary data collected through well-structured questionnaires administered on 60 respondents and 55 fully completed ones analysed. Budgeting, gross margin and multiple linear regression were used for analyses. Most merchants were found to be in the middle age class (30-50 years), majority of whom were female and completed their secondary school education, with eighty percent having more than 5 years’ experience of in banana/plantain marketing. The highest losses were incurred during transportation and these losses constitute about 5.62 percent of the potential total revenue. On the average, loss in gross margin is about ₦6,000.00 per merchant. The impacts of these losses are reflected in the continuously reducing level of their income. Age of the respondents played a major role in determining the level of care in the handling of the fruits. The middle age class tends to be more favoured. In conclusion, the merchants need adequate and sustainable transportation and storage facilities as a matter of utmost urgency. There is the need for government to encourage producers of the product (farmers) by giving them motivating incentives and ensuring that the environment is made conducive also for dealers by providing adequate storage facilities and ready markets locally and possibly for export.

Keywords: post-harvest, losses, plantain, banana, simple regression

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Mili Dutta, Lokender Prashad

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Introduction: Population ageing is a phenomenon that can be observed around the globe. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a measurement of health status of an individual, and it describes the effect of physical and mental health disorders on the well-being of a person. The present study is aimed to describe the influence of socio-economic characteristics of elderly on their health-related quality of life in India. Methods: EQ-5D instrument and population-based EQ-5D index score has been measured to access the HRQOL among elderly. Present study utilized the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) data which was conducted in 2007 in India. Multiple Logistic Regression model and Multivariate Linear Regression model has been employed. Result: In the present study, it was found that the female are more likely to have problems in mobility (OR=1.41, 95% Cl: 1.14 to 1.74), self-care (OR=1.26, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.56) and pain or discomfort (OR=1.50, 95% Cl: 1.16 to 1.94). Elderly residing in rural area are more likely to have problems in pain/discomfort (OR=1.28, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.62). More older and non-working elderly are more likely whereas higher educated and highest wealth quintile elderly are less likely to have problems in all the dimensions of EQ-5D viz. mobility, self-care, usual activity, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The present study has also shown that oldest old people, residing in rural area and currently not working elderly are more likely to report low EQ-5D index score whereas elderly with high education level and high wealth quintile are more likely to report high EQ-5D index score than their counterparts. Conclusion: The present study has found EQ-5D instrument as the valid measure for assessing the HRQOL of elderly in India. The study indicates socio-economic characteristics of elderly such as female, more older people, residing in rural area, non-educated, poor and currently non-working as the major risk groups of having poor HRQOL in India. Findings of the study will be helpful for the programmes and policy makers, researchers, academician and social workers who are working in the field of ageing.

Keywords: ageing, HRQOL, India, EQ-5D, SAGE, socio-economic characteristics

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Authors: Lee Derk Huan, Nur Irmawati

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This paper aims to investigate the heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics of nanofluids used in spray cooling systems. The effect of spray height, type of nanofluids and concentration of nanofluids are numerically investigated. Five different nanofluids such as AgH2O, Al2O3, CuO, SiO2 and TiO2 with volume fraction range of 0.5% to 2.5% are used. The results revealed that the heat transfer performance decreases as spray height increases. It is found that TiO2 has the highest transfer coefficient among other nanofluids. In dilute spray conditions, low concentration of nanofluids is observed to be more effective in heat removal in a spray cooling system.

Keywords: numerical investigation, spray cooling, heat transfer, nanofluids

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Authors: M. Ramesh, Manish K. Niranjan

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The electronic, structural and thermoelectric properties of Mg₂SiSn (110) surface are investigated within the framework of first principle density functional theory and semi classical Boltzmann approach. In particular, directional dependent thermoelectric properties such as electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and figure of merit are explored. The (110)-oriented Mg₂SiSn surface exhibits narrow indirect band gap of ~0.17 eV. The thermoelectric properties are found to be significant along the y-axis at 300 K and along x-axis at 500 K. The figure of merit (ZT) for hole carrier concentration is found to be significantly large having magnitude 0.83 (along x-axis) at 500 K and 0.26 (y-axis) at 300 K. Our results suggest that Mg₂SiSn (110) surface is promising for various thermoelectric applications due to its overall good thermoelectric properties.

Keywords: thermoelectric, surface science, semiconducting silicide, first principles calculations

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Authors: Jiexuan Lin, Huiyi Chen

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The development of L2 pronunciation competence remains understudied in the literature and it is not clear what may influence learners’ development of L2 pronunciation. The present study was an attempt to find out which of the two common factors in L2 acquisition, i.e., foreign language anxiety or self-perceived L2 proficiency, can better predict Chinese EFL learners’ pronunciation performance. 78 first-year English majors, who had received a three-month pronunciation training course, were asked to 1) fill out a questionnaire on foreign language classroom anxiety, 2) self-report their L2 proficiency in general, in speaking and in pronunciation, and 3) complete an oral and a written test on their L2 pronunciation (the score of the oral part indicates participants’ pronunciation proficiency in oral production, and the score of the written part indexes participants’ ability in applying pronunciation knowledge in comprehension.) Results showed that the pronunciation scores were negatively correlated with the anxiety scores, and were positively correlated with the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency. But only the written scores in the L2 pronunciation test, not the oral scores, were positively correlated with the L2 self-perceived general proficiency. Neither the oral nor the written scores in the L2 pronunciation test had a significant correlation with the self-perceived speaking proficiency. Given the fairly strong correlations, the anxiety scores and the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency were put in regression models to predict L2 pronunciation performance. The anxiety factor alone accounted for 13.9% of the variance and the self-perceived pronunciation proficiency alone explained 12.1% of the variance. But when both anxiety scores and self-perceived pronunciation proficiency were put in a stepwise regression model, only the anxiety scores had a significant and unique contribution to the L2 pronunciation performance (4.8%). Taken together, the results suggested that the learners’ anxiety level could better predict their L2 pronunciation performance, compared with the self-perceived proficiency levels. The obtained data have the following pedagogical implications. 1) Given the fairly strong correlation between anxiety and L2 pronunciation performance, the instructors who are interested in predicting learners’ L2 pronunciation proficiency may measure their anxiety level, instead of their proficiency, as the predicting variable. 2) The correlation of oral scores (in the pronunciation test) with pronunciation proficiency, rather than with speaking proficiency, indicates that a) learners after receiving some amounts of training are to some extent able to evaluate their own pronunciation ability, implying the feasibility of incorporating self-evaluation and peer comments in course instruction; b) the ‘proficiency’ measure used to predict pronunciation performance should be used with caution. The proficiency of specific skills seemingly highly related to pronunciation (i.e., speaking in this case) may not be taken for granted as an effective predictor for pronunciation performance. 3) The correlation between the written scores with general L2 proficiency is interesting.

Keywords: anxiety, Chinese EFL learners, L2 pronunciation, self-perceived L2 proficiency

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Authors: M. Helaimi, R. Taleb, D. Benyoucef, B. Belmadani

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This paper presents the design of a polynomial controller with coefficient diagram method (CDM). This controller is used to control the output power of high frequency resonant inverter with LLC tank. One of the most important problems associated with the proposed inverter is achieving ZVS operating during the induction heating process. To overcome this problem, asymmetrical voltage cancellation (AVC) control technique is proposed. The phased look loop (PLL) is used to track the natural frequency of the system. The small signal model of the system with the proposed control is obtained using extending describing function method (EDM). The validity of the proposed control is verified by simulation results.

Keywords: induction heating, AVC control, CDM, PLL, resonant inverter

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Authors: Salima Kerai, Muhammad Islam, Uzma Khan, Nargis Asad, Junaid Razzak, Omrana Pasha

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Background: Pre-hospital care providers are exposed to various kinds of stressors. Their daily exposure to diverse critical and traumatic incidents can lead to stress reactions like Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Consequences of PTSD in terms of work loss can be catastrophic because of its compound effect on families, which affect them economically, socially and emotionally. Therefore, it is critical to assess the association between PTSD and Work performance in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) if exist any. Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out at AMAN EMS in Karachi, Pakistan. EMS personnel were screened for potential PTSD using impact of event scale-revised (IES-R). Work performance was assessed on basis of five variables; number of late arrivals to work, number of days absent, number of days sick, adherence to protocol and patient satisfaction survey over the period of 3 months. In order to model outcomes like number of late arrivals to work, days absent and days late; negative binomial regression was used whereas logistic regression was applied for adherence to protocol and linear for patient satisfaction scores. Results: Out of 536 EMS personnel, 525 were found to be eligible, of them 518 consented. However data on 507 were included because 7 left the job during study period. The mean score of PTSD was found to be 24.0 ± 12.2. However, weak and insignificant association was found between PTSD and work performance measures: number of late arrivals (RRadj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98-1.00), days absent (RRadj 0.98; 95% CI 0.96-0.99), days sick (Rradj 0.99; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.00), adherence to protocol (ORadj 1.01: 95% CI 0.99 to 1.04) and patient satisfaction (0.001% score; 95% CI -0.03% to 0.03%). Conclusion: No association was found between PTSD and Work performance in the selected EMS population in Karachi Pakistan. Further studies are needed to explore the phenomenon of resiliency in these populations. Moreover, qualitative work is required to explore perceptions and feelings like willingness to go to work, readiness to carry out job responsibilities.

Keywords: trauma, emergency medical service, stress, pakistan

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Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

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In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Ahmed Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ali Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ahmed Al-Shafie

Abstract:

In this study, genetic programming (GP) technique has been investigated in prediction of set of rainfall-runoff data. To assess the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Correlation Coefficient (CC), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Correlation of Efficiency (CE). The principle aim of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and robust approach for predict of rainfall-runoff which could reduce the cost and labour for measuring these parameters. This research concentrates on the Johor River in Johor State, Malaysia.

Keywords: genetic programming, prediction, rainfall-runoff, Malaysia

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Ali Gul, Bhart Kumar, Samiullah Ansari

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The current research is focused on the study of various lengths of blades (i.e. 1 to 5m) and several bladed rotors (3,5,7 & 9) of small horizontal axis wind turbine under low wind conditions usingQBlade software. Initially, the rotor was designed using airfoil SG6043 with five different lengths of the blades. Subsequently, simulations were carried out in which, under low wind regimes, the power output was observed. Further, four rotors having 3,5,7 & 9 blades were analyzed. However, the most promising coefficient of performance (CP) was observed at the 3-bladed rotor. Both studies established a clear view of harvesting wind energy at low wind speeds that can be mobilized in the energy sector. That suggests the utilization of wind energy at the domestic levelwhich is acceleratory growing in the last few decades.

Keywords: small HAWT, QBlade, BEM, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: H. Mohammadi Majd, M. Jalali Azizpour, V. Tavaf, A. Jaderi

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In upsetting processes contact friction significantly influence metal flow, stress-strain state and process parameters. Furthermore, tribological conditions influence workpiece deformation and its dimensional precision. A viscoplastic constitutive law, the Anand model, was applied to represent the inelastic deformation behavior in upsetting process. This paper presents research results of the influence of contact friction coefficient on a workpiece deformation in upsetting process.finite element parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process.

Keywords: friction, upsetting, barreling, Anand model

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Authors: Rafat Alshorman, Fadi Awawdeh

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By employing a simplified bilinear method, a class of generalized fifth-order KdV (gfKdV) equations which arise in nonlinear lattice, plasma physics and ocean dynamics are investigated. With the aid of symbolic computation, both solitary wave solutions and multiple-soliton solutions are obtained. These new exact solutions will extend previous results and help us explain the properties of nonlinear solitary waves in many physical models in shallow water. Parametric analysis is carried out in order to illustrate that the soliton amplitude, width and velocity are affected by the coefficient parameters in the equation.

Keywords: multiple soliton solutions, fifth-order evolution equations, Cole-Hopf transformation, Hirota bilinear method

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Zafer Yüce, Paşa Yayla, Alev Taşkın

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There are heaps of analytical methods to estimate the crack growth life of a component. Soft computing methods have an increasing trend in predicting fatigue life. Their ability to build complex relationships and capability to handle huge amounts of data are motivating researchers and industry professionals to employ them for challenging problems. This study focuses on soft computing methods, especially random forest regressors and artificial neural networks with hyperparameter optimization algorithms such as grid search and random grid search, to estimate the crack growth life of an aircraft wing splice joint under variable amplitude loading. TensorFlow and Scikit-learn libraries of Python are used to build the machine learning models for this study. The material considered in this work is 7050-T7451 aluminum, which is commonly preferred as a structural element in the aerospace industry, and regarding the crack type; corner crack is used. A finite element model is built for the joint to calculate fastener loads and stresses on the structure. Since finite element model results are validated with analytical calculations, findings of the finite element model are fed to AFGROW software to calculate analytical crack growth lives. Based on Fighter Aircraft Loading Standard for Fatigue (FALSTAFF), 90 unique fatigue loading spectra are developed for various load levels, and then, these spectrums are utilized as inputs to the artificial neural network and random forest regression models for predicting crack growth life. Finally, the crack growth life predictions of the machine learning models are compared with analytical calculations. According to the findings, a good correlation is observed between analytical and predicted crack growth lives.

Keywords: aircraft, fatigue, joint, life, optimization, prediction.

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: G .D. B. N. Kulasaooriya, H. B. S. Ariyarathne, I. Abeygunawardene, A. A. J. Rafarathne, B. V. Perera

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Elephant is the largest resident of the wild and has small surface to volume ratio as well as less number of sweat glands which cause challenges to the thermoregulation of this mammal. However, this megaherbivore has adopted specialised meachanisms to maintain its thermal balance through behavioral adaptations, ear flapping and well anastomosed arterioles and venules of the ear. Nevertheless, little is known on the involvement of the skin in the process of thermoregulation. The present study was undertaken to monitor the water evaporation rate from the skin of unrestrained wild elephant calves throughout the day and to understand its importance in the thermoregulation. Seven baby elephants housed in the elephant transit home, Udawalawe were used. Ambient temparature, relative humidity (RH) and radiation heat load was monitored throughout the day of the study period. Similarly, surface temparature of the skin was taken at six points including lateral ear pinna, lateral body and the rump during the same period. The skin water evaporation was also measured from the same sites using cobolt chloride method. The surface are of the skin was determined by assigning geometrical shapes to each body part. The results showed that the ambient temperature gradually increased with the day reaching maximum around 3.00 pm. The relative humidity was lowest early in the morning. The radiation heat load did not show any significant change in the study period. The skin temperature was different among lateral ear pinna, lateral body and the rump where the highest temperature was on the rump and the lowest on the lateral ear pinna. The skin temperature gradually increase with increasing ambient temperature but there was not a strong correlation (R2 =53.53) between these two. The skin temperature had strong correlation with RH (p<0.05 R2 =70.84% ) but a significant relationship was not considered since the radiation heat load was not varying in large scale. The skin evaporative water loss had a weak negative correlation with ambient temperature (correlation coefficient= -0.01) whereas strong positive correlation with RH (correlation coefficient= 25.275 ) and no corelation with radiation heat load. It also appeared that skin water loss increases as the skin temperature increased. In the present study, it was observed that on average, skin of the baby elephant looses 403 g/m2/h of water. Based on these observations it can be concluded that a large volume of water is evaporated from the skin of baby elephants and evaporative heat loss may be contributing significantly to the thermoregulation. However, further investigation on the influence of environmental factors on evaporative heat loss has to be conducted to understand the thermoregulatory mechanisms of the baby elephant.

Keywords: thermoregulation, behavioral adaptations, evaporation, elephant

Procedia PDF Downloads 355

Authors: Kourosh Modarresi

Abstract:

The Netflix problem has brought the topic of “Recommendation Systems” into the mainstream of computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Though much progress has been made, the available algorithms do not obtain satisfactory results. The success of these algorithms is rarely above 5%. This work is based on the belief that the main challenge is to come up with “scalable personalization” models. This paper uses an adaptive regularization of inverse singular value decomposition (SVD) that applies adaptive penalization on the singular vectors. The results show far better matching for recommender systems when compared to the ones from the state of the art models in the industry.

Keywords: convex optimization, LASSO, regression, recommender systems, singular value decomposition, low rank approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 435