Search results for: linear regression estimation

Authors: Manan Aslam, Shafqat Rasool

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This paper attempts to examine impact of major factors affecting marketed surplus of seed cotton in district Khanewal (Punjab) using primary source of data. A representative sample of 40 cotton farmers was selected using stratified random sampling technique. The impact of major factors on marketed surplus of seed cotton growers was estimated by employing double log form of regression analysis. The value of adjusted R2 was 0.64 whereas the F-value was 10.81. The findings of analysis revealed that experience of farmers, education of farmers, area under cotton crop and distance from wholesale market were the significant variables affecting marketed surplus of cotton whereas the variables (marketing cost and sale price) showed insignificant impact. The study suggests improving prevalent marketing practices to increase volume of marketed surplus of cotton in district Khanewal.

Keywords: seed cotton, marketed surplus, double log regression analysis

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Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

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The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

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Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

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In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R² = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R² = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: debonding, fibre reinforced polymers (FRP), pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis

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Authors: Volkan Isbuga, Joman M. Mahmood, Ali Firat Cabalar

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This study presents the site response analysis of mica-sand mixtures available in certain parts of the world including Izmir, a highly populated city and located in a seismically active region in western part of Turkey. We performed site response analyses by employing SHAKE, an equivalent linear approach, for the micaceous soil deposits consisting of layers with different amount of mica contents and thicknesses. Dynamic behavior of micaceous sands such as shear modulus reduction and damping ratio curves are input for the ground response analyses. Micaceous sands exhibit a unique dynamic response under a scenario earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=6. Results showed that higher amount of mica caused higher spectral accelerations.

Keywords: micaceous sands, site response, equivalent linear approach, SHAKE

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Authors: Fathi Kallel, Ahmed Ben Hamida, Christian Berger-Vachon

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In this paper, a Speech Enhancement Algorithm based on Multi-Band Spectral Subtraction (MBSS) principle is evaluated for Bilateral Cochlear Implant (BCI) users. Specifically, dual-channel noise power spectral estimation algorithm using Power Spectral Densities (PSD) and Cross Power Spectral Densities (CPSD) of the observed signals is studied. The enhanced speech signal is obtained using Dual-Channel Multi-Band Spectral Subtraction ‘DC-MBSS’ algorithm. For performance evaluation, objective speech assessment test relying on Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ) score is performed to fix the optimal number of frequency bands needed in DC-MBSS algorithm. In order to evaluate the speech intelligibility, subjective listening tests are assessed with 3 deafened BCI patients. Experimental results obtained using French Lafon database corrupted by an additive babble noise at different Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNR) showed that DC-MBSS algorithm improves speech understanding for single and multiple interfering noise sources.

Keywords: speech enhancement, spectral substracion, noise estimation, cochlear impalnt

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Authors: Anjanna Matta, P. A. L. Narayana

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An investigation has been presented to analyze the effect of internal heat source on the onset of Hadley-Prats flow in a horizontal fluid saturated porous medium. We examine a better understanding of the combined influence of the heat source and mass flow effect by using linear stability analysis. The resultant eigenvalue problem is solved by using shooting and Runga-Kutta methods for evaluate critical thermal Rayleight number with respect to various flow governing parameters. It is identified that the flow is switch from stabilizing to destabilizing as the horizontal thermal Rayleigh number is enhanced. The heat source and mass flow increases resulting a stronger destabilizing effect.

Keywords: linear stability analysis, heat source, porous medium, mass flow

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Authors: Jorge Olivares, Fernando Maass, Pablo Martin

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Fractional derivatives have been considered recently as a way to solve different problems in Engineering. In this way, second kind modified Bessel functions are considered here. The order α fractional differential equations of second kind Bessel functions, Kᵥ(x), are studied with simple initial conditions. The Laplace transform and Caputo definition of fractional derivatives are considered. Solutions have been found for ν=1/3, 1/2, 2/3, -1/3, -1/2 and (-2/3). In these cases, the solutions are the sum of two hypergeometric functions. The α fractional derivatives have been for α=1/3, 1/2 and 2/3, and the above values of ν. No convergence has been found for the integer values of ν Furthermore when α has been considered as a rational found m/p, no general solution has been found. Clearly, this case is more difficult to treat than those of first kind Bessel Function.

Keywords: Caputo, modified Bessel functions, hypergeometric, linear fractional differential equations, transform Laplace

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Kim Lindsay F. Restua, Jeehan Kyra A. Rivero, Joneka Myles D. Taguba

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Lean construction is defined as an approach in construction with the purpose of reducing waste in the process without compromising the value of the project. There are numerous lean construction tools that are applied in the construction process, which maximizes the efficiency of work and satisfaction of customers while minimizing waste. However, the complexity and differences of construction projects cause a rise in challenges on achieving the lean benefits construction can give, such as improvement in safety performance. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between lean construction tools and their effects on safety performance. The relationship between construction tools applied in construction and safety performance is identified through Logistic Regression Analysis, and Correlation Analysis was conducted thereafter. Based on the findings, it was concluded that almost 60% of the factors listed in the study, which are different tools and effects of lean construction, were determined to have a significant relationship with the level of safety in construction projects.

Keywords: correlation analysis, lean construction tools, lean construction, logistic regression analysis, risk management, safety

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Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Miloš Kuzmanović, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović

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In this paper, various derivatives of benzimidazole have been evaluated against Gram-negative bacteria Escherichia coli. For all investigated compounds the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) was determined. Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) attempts to find consistent relationships between the variations in the values of molecular properties and the biological activity for a series of compounds so that these rules can be used to evaluate new chemical entities. The correlation between MIC and some absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) parameters was investigated, and the mathematical models for predicting the antibacterial activity of this class of compounds were developed. The quality of the multiple linear regression (MLR) models was validated by the leave-one-out (LOO) technique, as well as by the calculation of the statistical parameters for the developed models and the results are discussed on the basis of the statistical data. The results of this study indicate that ADME parameters have a significant effect on the antibacterial activity of this class of compounds. Principal component analysis (PCA) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms (HCA) confirmed that the investigated molecules can be classified into groups on the basis of the ADME parameters: Madin-Darby Canine Kidney cell permeability (MDCK), Plasma protein binding (PPB%), human intestinal absorption (HIA%) and human colon carcinoma cell permeability (Caco-2).

Keywords: benzimidazoles, QSAR, ADME, in silico

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Authors: Muhammad Tahir

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Purpose The purpose of the study is to find anchoring bias behavior in mutual fund return with its parent firm performance in Pakistan. Research Methodology The paper used monthly returns of equity funds whose parent firm exist from 2011 to 2021, along with parent firm return. Proximity to 52-week highest return calculated by dividing fund return by parent firm 52-week highest return. Control variables are also taken and used pannel regression model to estimate our results. For robust results, we also used feasible generalize least square (FGLS) model. Findings The results showed that there exist anchoring biased in mutual fund return with its parent firm performance. The FGLS results reaffirms the same results as obtained from panner regression results. Proximity to 52-week highest Xc is significant in both models. Research Implication Since most of mutual funds has a parent firm, anchoring behavior biased found in mutual fund with its parent firm performance. Practical Implication Mutual fund investors in Pakistan invest in equity funds in which behavioral bias exist, although there might be better opportunity in market. Originality/Value Addition Our research is a pioneer study to investigate anchoring bias in mutual fund return with its parent firm performance. Research limitations Our sample is limited to only 23 equity funds, which has a parent firm and data was available from 2011 to 2021.

Keywords: mutual fund, anchoring bias, 52-week high return, proximity to 52-week high, parent firm performance, pannel regression, FGLS

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Authors: T. Martini, J. M. Martínez

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An algorithmic acceleration strategy based on quasi-Newton (or secant) methods is displayed for address the practical problem of accelerating the convergence of the Newton-Lagrange method in the case of convergence to critical multipliers. Since the Newton-Lagrange iteration converges locally at a linear rate, it is natural to conjecture that quasi-Newton methods based on the so called secant equation and some minimal variation principle, could converge superlinearly, thus restoring the convergence properties of Newton's method. This strategy can also be applied to accelerate the convergence of algorithms applied to fixed-points problems. Computational experience is reported illustrating the efficiency of this strategy to solve fixed-point problems with linear convergence rate.

Keywords: algorithmic acceleration, fixed-point problems, nonlinear programming, quasi-newton method

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Authors: Jui-Hsiu Chang

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As an increasing number of restaurants are growing, the demand for man force in the food service industry is dramatically increasing as well. However, food service workers often complete the heavy workload, infrequent breaks, long hours and shifts. With the overwhelming workload, many workers have experienced high injury rates. As a result, the restaurant industry reports a higher employee turnover rate compare to other service industries in Taiwan. Restaurant managers are seeing ways to retain good employees in order to provide good quality service for daily operation. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship among exercise participation, job stress and job satisfaction on the food service employees. In addition, to examine how the job stress affected their job satisfaction. A survey using a self-reported questionnaire was conducted to collect data, and 269 questionnaires were collected for data analysis. The obtained materials were analyzed using descriptive statistic, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, linear regression analysis. The results show that 1. Job stress had a significantly negative influence on employees’ job satisfaction. 2. Exercise participation had significantly positive influence on employees’ job satisfaction. 3. Job stress and job satisfaction varied among the groups of respondent with different level of exercise involvement. Furthermore, the practical implications were proposed for the food service company management when developing daily operational strategies.

Keywords: exercise participation, food service employees, job satisfaction, job stress

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija R. Jevrić, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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Benzimidazoles are a group of compounds with significant antibacterial, antifungal and anticancer activity. The studied compounds consist of the main benzimidazole structure with different combinations of substituens. This study is based on the two-dimensional and three-dimensional molecular modeling and calculation of molecular descriptors (physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors) of structurally diverse benzimidazoles. Molecular modeling was carried out by using ChemBio3D Ultra version 14.0 software. The obtained 3D models were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. The obtained set of molecular descriptors was used in principal component analysis (PCA) of possible similarities and dissimilarities among the studied derivatives. After the molecular modeling, the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) analysis was applied in order to get the mathematical models which can be used in prediction of pKb values of structurally similar benzimidazoles. The obtained models are based on statistically valid multiple linear regression (MLR) equations. The calculated cross-validation parameters indicate the high prediction ability of the established QSPR models. This study is financially supported by COST action CM1306 and the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina.

Keywords: benzimidazoles, chemometrics, molecular modeling, molecular descriptors, QSPR

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Authors: Hashem Dadashpoor, Sadegh Saeidi Shirvan

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While with the evolution of the economy towards a knowledge-based economy, innovation is a requirement for metropolitan regions, the adoption of an open innovation strategy is an option and a requirement for many industrial firms in these regions. Studies show that investing in research and development units cannot alone increase innovation. Within the framework of the theory of learning regions, this gap, which scholars call it the ‘innovation gap’, is filled with regional features of firms. This paper attempts to investigate the factors affecting the open innovation of firms in metropolitan regions, and it searches for these in territorial innovation models and, in particular, the theory of learning regions. In the next step, the effect of identified factors which is considered as regional learning factors in this research is analyzed on the innovation of sample firms by SPSS software using multiple linear regression. The case study of this research is constituted of industrial enterprises from two groups of food industry and auto parts in Toos industrial town in Mashhad metropolitan region. For data gathering of this research, interviews were conducted with managers of industrial firms using structured questionnaires. Based on this study, the effect of factors such as size of firms, inter-firm competition, the use of local labor force and institutional infrastructures were significant in the innovation of the firms studied, and 44% of the changes in the firms’ innovation occurred as a result of the change in these factors.

Keywords: regional knowledge networks, learning regions, interactive learning, innovation

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Authors: Anastasia Sorokina

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Graduate language loss or attrition has been well documented in individuals who migrate and become emersed in a different language environment. This phenomenon of first language (L1) attrition is an example of non-pathological (not due to trauma) and can manifest itself in frequent pauses, search for words, or grammatical errors. While the widely experienced loss of one’s first language might seem harmless, there is convincing evidence from the disciplines of Developmental Psychology, Bilingual Studies, and even Psychotherapy that language plays a crucial role in the memory of self. In fact, we remember, store, and share personal memories with the help of language. Dual-Coding Theory suggests that language memory code deterioration could lead to forgetting. Yet, no one has investigated a possible connection between language loss and memory. The present study aims to address this research gap by examining a corpus of 1,495 memories of Russian-English bilinguals who are on a continuum of L1 (first language) attrition. Since phenomenological properties capture how well a memory is remembered, the following descriptors were selected - vividness, ease of recall, emotional valence, personal significance, and confidence in the event. A series of linear regression statistical analyses were run to examine the possible negative effects of L1 attrition on autobiographical memory. The results revealed that L1 attrition might compromise perceived vividness and confidence in the event, which is indicative of memory deterioration. These findings suggest the importance of heritage language maintenance in immigrant communities who might be forced to assimilate as language loss might negatively affect the memory of self.

Keywords: L1 attrition, autobiographical memory, language loss, memory phenomenology, dual coding

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Authors: Michal Wolk, Bat-Sheva Hadad, Orly Rubinsten

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Objective: The visuospatial perception system process that allows us to decompose and recompose small quantities into a whole is often called “groupitizing.” Previous studies have been found that adults use groupitizing processes in quantity estimation tasks and link this ability of subgroups recognition to arithmetic proficiency. This pilot study examined if adults with math difficulties benefit from visuospatial grouping cues when asked to estimate the quantity of a given set. It also compared the tipping point in which a significant improvement occurs in adults with typical development compared to adults with math difficulties. Method: In this pilot research, we recruited adults with low arithmetic abilities and matched controls. Participants were asked to estimate the quantity of a given set. Different grouping cues were displayed (space, color, or none) with different visual configurations (different quantities-different shapes, same quantities- different shapes, same quantities- same shapes). Results: Both groups showed significant performance improvement when grouping cues appeared. However, adults with low arithmetic abilities benefited from the grouping cues already in very small quantities as four. Conclusion: impaired perceptual groupitizing abilities may be a characteristic of low arithmetic abilities.

Keywords: groupitizing, math learning disability, quantity estimation, visual perception system

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Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

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There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: road safety, prediction, accident, model, Qatar

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Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula

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The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.

Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting

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Authors: Manlika Ratchagit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Siriluk Ruangrungrote

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Analyses of available data from MFR-7 measurement were performed and discussed on the study of tropospheric aerosol and its consequence in Thailand. Since, ASSA (w) is one of the most important parameters for a determination of aerosol effect on radioactive forcing. Here the estimation of w was directly determined in terms of the ratio of aerosol scattering optical depth to aerosol extinction optical depth (ωscat/ωext) without any utilization of aerosol computer code models. This is of benefit for providing the elimination of uncertainty causing by the modeling assumptions and the estimation of actual aerosol input data. Diurnal w of 5 cloudless-days in winter and early summer at 5 distinct wavelengths of 415, 500, 615, 673 and 870 nm with the consideration of Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric column NO2 and Ozone contents were investigated, respectively. Besides, the tendency of spectral dependence of ω representing two seasons was observed. The characteristic of spectral results reveals that during wintertime the atmosphere of the inland rural vicinity for the period of measurement possibly dominated with a lesser amount of soil dust aerosols loading than one in early summer. Hence, the major aerosol loading particularly in summer was subject to a mixture of both soil dust and biomass burning aerosols.

Keywords: aerosol scattering optical depth, aerosol extinction optical depth, biomass burning aerosol, soil dust aerosol

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Authors: Mogens Saberi

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The focus of this article is to present the experience gained from the design of a grouted pile-sleeve connection and to present simple design expressions which can be used in the preliminary design phase of such connections. The grout pile-sleeve connection serves as a connection between an offshore jacket foundation and pre-installed piles located in the seabed. The jacket foundation supports a wind turbine generator resulting in significant dynamic loads on the connection. The connection is designed with shear keys in order to optimize the overall design but little experience is currently available in the use of shear keys in such connections. It is found that the consequence of introducing shear keys in the design is a very complex stress distribution which requires special attention due to significant fatigue loads. An optimal geometrical shape of the shear keys is introduced in order to avoid large stress concentration factors and a relatively easy fabrication. The connection is analysed in ANSYS Mechanical where the grout is modelled by a non-linear material model which allows for cracking of the grout material and captures the elastic-plastic behaviour of the grout material. Special types of finite elements are used in the interface between the pile sleeve and the grout material to model the slip surface between the grout material and the steel. Based on the performed finite element modelling simple design expressions are introduced.

Keywords: fatigue design, non-linear finite element modelling, structural dynamics, simple design expressions

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Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Seong-Jin Cho, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Kyu Park

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Sound absorption coefficient is considered important when designing because noise affects emotion quality of car. It is designed with lots of experiment tunings in the field because it is unreliable to predict it for multi-layer material. In this paper, we present the design of sound absorption for automotive interior material with multiple layers using estimation software of sound absorption coefficient for reverberation chamber. Additionally, we introduce the method for estimation of physical properties required to predict sound absorption coefficient of car interior materials with multiple layers too. It is calculated by inverse algorithm. It is very economical to get information about physical properties without expensive equipment. Correlation test is carried out to ensure reliability for accuracy. The data to be used for the correlation is sound absorption coefficient measured in the reverberation chamber. In this way, it is considered economical and efficient to design automotive interior materials. And design optimization for sound absorption coefficient is also easy to implement when it is designed.

Keywords: sound absorption coefficient, optimization design, inverse algorithm, automotive interior material, multiple layers nonwoven, scaled reverberation chamber, sound impedance tubes

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Authors: Manlika Rajchakit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi, Mahmoud I. Syam, Sarah Aw

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In Summer 2012, the Foundation Program Unit of Qatar University has started implementing new ways of teaching Math by introducing MML (MyMathLab) as an innovative interactive tool to support standard teaching. In this paper, we focused on the effect of proper use of the Study Plan component of MML on student’s performance. Authors investigated the results of students of pre-calculus course during Fall 2013 in Foundation Program at Qatar University. The results showed that there is a strong correlation between study plan results and final exam results, also a strong relation between homework results and final exam results. In addition, the attendance average affected on the student’s results in general. Multiple regression is determined between passing rate dependent variable and study plan, homework as independent variable.

Keywords: MyMathLab, study plan, assessment, homework, attendance, correlation, regression

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Authors: D. Glamowska, K. Szymkowska, K. Mojsiewicz- Pieńkowska, K. Cal, Z. Jankowski

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Introduction: The integrity of the outermost layer of skin (stratum corneum) is vital to the penetration of various compounds, including toxic substances. Barrier function of skin depends of its structure. The barrier function of the stratum corneum is provided by patterned lipid lamellae (binlayer). However, a lot of substances, including the low molecular methyl siloxanes (volatile methyl siloxanes, VMS) have an impact on alteration the skin barrier due to damage of stratum corneum structure. VMS belong to silicones. They are widely used in the pharmaceutical as well as cosmetic industry. Silicones fulfill the role of ingredient or excipient in medicinal products and the excipient in personal care products. Due to the significant human exposure to this group of compounds, an important aspect is toxicology of the compounds and safety assessment of products. Silicones in general opinion are considered as a non-toxic substances, but there are some data about their negative effect on living organisms through the inhaled or oral application. However, the transdermal route has not been described in the literature as a possible alternative route of penetration. The aim of the study was to verify the possibility of penetration of the stratum corneum, further permeation into the deeper layers of the skin (epidermis and dermis) as well as to the fluid acceptor by VMS. Methods: Research methodology was developed based on the OECD and WHO guidelines. In ex-vivo study, the fluorescence microscope and ATR FT-IR spectroscopy was used. The Franz- type diffusion cells were used to application of the VMS on the sample of human skin (A=0.65 cm) for 24h. The stratum corneum at the application site was tape-stripped. After separation of epidermis, relevant dyes: fluorescein, sulforhodamine B, rhodamine B hexyl ester were put on and observations were carried in the microscope. To confirm the penetration and permeation of the cyclic or linear VMS and thus the presence of silicone in the individual layers of the skin, spectra ATR FT-IR of the sample after application of silicone and H2O (control sample) were recorded. The research included comparison of the intesity of bands in characteristic positions for silicones (1263 cm-1, 1052 cm-1 and 800 cm-1). Results: and Conclusions The results present that cyclic and linear VMS are able to overcome the barrier of the skin. Influence of them on damage of corneocytes of the stratum corneum was observed. This phenomenon was due to distinct disturbances in the lipid structure of the stratum corneum. The presence of cyclic and linear VMS were identified in the stratum corneum, epidermis as well as in the dermis by both fluorescence microscope and ATR FT-IR spectroscopy. This confirms that the cyclic and linear VMS can penetrate to stratum corneum and permeate through the human skin layers. Apart from this they cause changes in the structure of the skin. Results show to possible absorption into the blood and lymphathic vessels by the VMS with linear and cyclic structure.

Keywords: low molecular methyl siloxanes, volatile methyl siloxanes, linear and cyclic siloxanes, skin penetration, skin permeation

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Authors: Livy Febria Tedjamulia, Aas Nurasyiah, Ivana Josephin Purnama, Monika Diah Maharani Kusumastuti, Achmad Ridwan Ariyantoro

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Papua's candy is one of Indonesia’s indigenous consumption consisting of areca nut (Areca catechu), forest betel fruit (Piper aduncum), and CaCO3. This research aims to determine the concentration of tannins in areca nut, alkaloids in areca nut, flavonoids in forest betel fruit; detect their interaction and CaCO3; also toform a standardize consumption recommendation. The research methodwas includingDPPH assay for papua’s candy mixture, which resulted in IC50 value. Data analysis used is mathematical linear regression for each experiment. The test result of alkaloid is a Rf value of 0.773, while concentration of tannin and flavonoidare 0.603 mgGAE/g and 125.402 gQE/g, respectively. The IC50 value shows number of 3.0403, showing high antioxidant capacity.Other antioxidant assays were being studied using literature review, namely trolox and oxygen radical absorbance capacity, to figure out interaction among the bioactive compounds. It turned out that the interaction detected is antagonistic, which means the compound that is joined already has a stable molecular structure so that could reduce free radicals by donating hydrogen atoms. The recommendation consumptions given are 4 areca nuts, 5 forest betels, and 1 gram of lime betel. Therefore, papua's candy has its potential to be developed into functional food.

Keywords: antioxidant, bioactive compounds interaction, free radical, papua’s candy

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

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Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, Cannibalization, promotion, Baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression

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Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

Abstract:

With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: traffic app, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Abstract:

Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

Procedia PDF Downloads 343