Search results for: assessment of risk and need

Authors: Karolina Patora

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This article investigates liquidity risk management by banks, which has gained significant importance since the global financial crisis of 2008. The issue is of particular interest for countries like Poland, in which foreign capital plays a dominant role. Such an ownership structure poses certain risks to the local banking sector, which faces an increased probability of the withdrawal of funding or assets’ transfers abroad in case of a crisis. Both these factors can have a detrimental influence on the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks and hence negatively affect the financial stability of the whole banking sector. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a dominating share of foreign investors in the Polish banking sector on the liquidity position of commercial banks. The study hypothesizes that the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector, in which there are banks predominantly controlled by foreign investors, does not pose a threat to the liquidity position of Polish banks. A supplementary research hypothesis is that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-owned banks differs from that of domestic banks. The sample consists of 14 foreign-owned banks and 5 domestic banks owned by local investors, which together constitute approximately 87% of the banking sector’s assets. The data covers the period of 2004–2014. The results of the regression models show no evidence of significant differences in terms of the dynamics of changes of the liquidity buffers between the foreign-owned and domestic banks, although the signs of the coefficients might suggest that the foreign-owned banks were decreasing the holdings of liquid assets at a slower pace over the examined period, compared to the domestic banks. However, no proof of the statistical significance of these findings has been found. The supplementary research hypothesis that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-controlled banks differs from that of domestic banks was rejected.

Keywords: foreign-owned banks, liquidity position, liquidity risk, financial stability

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Nilgün Katrancı, Pınar Göv

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With the acceleration and assessment of quality and patient safety works in healthcare services in the 21st century, activities to reduce errors have gained importance. The prevention and reduction of unintended consequences related to healthcare services and errors made during the delivery of healthcare services can be achieved by understanding the causes of the errors. Communication is the basic reason most frequently seen in such cases. Nurses who communicate with patients more closely and for longer time play a more critical role in ensuring patient safety compared to other healthcare professionals. To reduce the risk of medical errors and increase the quality of care, it is important to raise the awareness of nurses about patient safety in training period. This descriptive study was conducted between February 2017 and May 2017 to assess intern students' attitudes towards and knowledge of patient safety and medical errors. The target population of the study consists of intern students at the Faculty of Nursing in Gaziantep University (N=180). The study did not apply any sample selection method, and the research group consisted of 90 female and 37 male senior students who were available and accepted to take part in the study (N=127). The study used personal information form and medical error attitude scale to collect data. The medical error attitude scale consists of 16 items and 3 sub-dimensions. The most frequently seen medical error in the clinics the interns worked at was found as ‘Failure to comply with asepsis rules’ with a rate of 67,7%. The most frequent case among reasons for not disclosing an error is ‘noticing and correcting the error before affecting the patient’ with the rate of 70,9%. The most frequently expressed implications of disclosing a serious error for the intern students participating in the study are ‘harming patient trust (78%)’ and ‘possibility of overreaction by patient (62,2%)’. According to the results of the study, the awareness of the students about the importance of medical errors and error reporting was found high (3,48 ± 0,49). Consequently, it is important to assess and positively improve the attitudes of nurses and other healthcare professionals towards medical errors for the determination of causes of medical errors and their prevention.

Keywords: healthcare service, intern student, medical error, patient safety

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Authors: Alain Rousseau, Alfred Aragones, Gilles Rougier

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The study is based on lightning and surge standards mainly the EN series 62305 for facility protection, EN series 61643 for Low Voltage Surge Protective Devices, High Voltage surge arrester standard en 60099-4 and the traction arrester standards namely EN 50526-1 and 50526-1 dealing respectively with railway applications fixed installations D.C. surge arresters and voltage limiting devices. The more severe stress for tramways installations is caused by direct lightning on the catenary line. In such case, the surge current propagates towards the various poles and sparkover the insulators leading to a lower stress. If the impact point is near enough, a significant surge current will flow towards the traction surge arrester that is installed on the catenary at the location the substation is connected. Another surge arrester can be installed at the entrance of the substation or even inside the rectifier to avoid insulation damages. In addition, surge arresters can be installed between + and – to avoid damaging sensitive circuits. Based on disturbances encountered in a substation following a lighting event, the engineering department of RATP has decided to investigate the cause of such damage and more generally to question the efficiency of the various possible protection means. Based on the example of a recent tramway line the paper present the result of a lightning study based on direct lightning strikes. As a matter of fact, the induced surges on the catenary are much more frequent but much less damaging. First, a lightning risk assessment is performed for the substations that takes into account direct lightning and induced lightning both on the substation and its connected lines such as the catenary. Then the paper deals with efficiency of the various surge arresters is discussed based on field experience and calculations. The efficiency of the earthing system used at the bottom of the pole is also addressed based on high frequency earthing measurement. As a conclusion, the paper is making recommendations for an enhanced efficiency of existing protection means.

Keywords: surge arrester, traction, lightning, risk, surge protective device

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Authors: Fagner O. Serrano, Danielle R. Bouchard, Todd A. Duhame

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Walking cadence (steps/min) is an effective way to prescribe exercise so an individual can reach a moderate intensity, which is recommended to optimize health benefits. To our knowledge, there is no study on the required walking cadence to reach a moderate intensity for people that present chronic conditions or risk factors for chronic conditions such as Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD). The objectives of this study were: 1- to identify the walking cadence needed for people at risk of CVD to a reach moderate intensity, and 2- to develop and test an equation using clinical variables to help professionals working with individuals at risk of CVD to estimate the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity. Ninety-one people presenting a minimum of two risk factors for CVD completed a medically supervised graded exercise test to assess maximum oxygen consumption at the first visit. The last visit consisted of recording walking cadence using a foot pod Garmin FR-60 and a Polar heart rate monitor, aiming to get participants to reach 40% of their maximal oxygen consumption using a portable metabolic cart on an indoor flat surface. The equation to predict the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity in this sample was developed as follows: The sample was randomly split in half and the equation was developed with one half of the participants, and validated using the other half. Body mass index, height, stride length, leg height, body weight, fitness level (VO2max), and self-selected cadence (over 200 meters) were measured using objective measured. Mean walking cadence to reach moderate intensity for people age 64.3 ± 10.3 years old at risk of CVD was 115.8  10.3 steps per minute. Body mass index, height, body weight, fitness level, and self-selected cadence were associated with walking cadence at moderate intensity when evaluated in bivariate analyses (r ranging from 0.22 to 0.52; all P values ≤0.05). Using linear regression analysis including all clinical variables associated in the bivariate analyses, body weight was the significant predictor of walking cadence for reaching a moderate intensity (ß=0.24; P=.018) explaining 13% of walking cadence to reach moderate intensity. The regression model created was Y = 134.4-0.24 X body weight (kg).Our findings suggest that people presenting two or more risk factors for CVD are reaching moderate intensity while walking at a cadence above the one officially recommended (116 steps per minute vs. 100 steps per minute) for healthy adults.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, moderate intensity, older adults, walking cadence

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Authors: H. Ju, M. Jones, G. D. Mishra

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Introduction: Limited longitudinal studies have examined the relationship between BMI and dysmenorrhea, resulting in mixed results. This study aims to investigate the long-term association between BMI and dysmenorrhea. Methods: 9,688 women from Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH), a prospective population-based cohort study, were followed for 13 years. Data were collected through self-reported questionnaires repeatedly on all variables, including dysmenorrhea, weight and height. The longitudinal association between dysmenorrhea and BMI or BMI transition (change of BMI categories between two successive surveys) was investigated by generalized estimating equations. Results: When the women were aged 22 to 27 years, approximately 11% were obese, 7% underweight, and 25% reported dysmenorrhea. Over the study period, the prevalence of obesity doubled whereas that of underweight declined substantially. The prevalence of dysmenorrhea remained relatively stable. Compared to women with a normal weight, significantly higher odds of reporting dysmenorrhea were detected for both women who were underweight (odds ratio (OR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09, 1.43) and obese (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.31). Being overweight was not associated with increased risk of dysmenorrhea. Compared to women who remained at normal weight or overweight over time, significant risk was detected for women who: remained underweight or obese (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.23, 1.49), were underweight but became normal or overweight (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.11, 1.50), became underweight (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01, 1.52). However, the higher risk among obese women disappeared when they lost weight and became normal weight or overweight (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.87, 1.30). Conclusions: A U-shaped association was revealed between dysmenorrhea and BMI, revealing higher risk of dysmenorrhea for both underweight and obese women. Further, the risk disappeared when obese women lost weight and acquired a healthier BMI. However obesity certainly poses a greater burden of disease from the public health perspective, thus requires greater effort to tackle the increasing problem at the population level. It is important to maintain a healthy weight over time for women to enjoy a better reproductive health.

Keywords: body mass index, dysmenorrhea, obesity, painful period, underweight

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Authors: M. F. Yilmaz, B. Ö. Çağlayan

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Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency.

Keywords: railway bridges, earthquake performance, fragility analyses, selection of intensity measures

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Authors: Gaurav Vaidya, N. R. Mandal

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UN Summit, 2000 had resolved to provide access to sanitation to whole humanity as part of ‘Millennium Development Goals -2015’. However, more than one third of world’s population still did not have the access to basic sanitation facilities by 2015. Therefore, it will be a gigantic challenge to achieve goal-6 of ‘UN Sustainable Development Goal’ to ensure availability and sustainable management of sanitation for all by the year 2030. Countries attempt to find out own ways of meeting this challenge of providing access to safe sanitation and as part of monitoring the actions have prepared varied types of ‘performance assessment frameworks (PAF)’. India introduced Service Level Benchmarking (SLB) in 2010 to set targets and achieve the goals of NUSP. Further, a method of reviewing performance was introduced as ‘Swachh Sarvekshan’ (Cleanliness Surveys) in 2016 and in 2017 guidelines for the same was revised. This study, as a first step, reviews the documents in use in India with a conclusion that the frameworks adopted are based on target setting, financial allocation and performance in achieving the targets set. However, it does not focus upon sanitation needs holistically i.e., areas and aspects not targeted through projects are not covered in the performance assessment. In this context, as a second step, this study reviews literature available on performance assessment frameworks for urban sanitation in selected other countries and compares the same with that in India. The outcome of the comparative review resulted in identification of unaddressed aspects as well as inadequacy of parameters in Indian context. Thirdly, in an attempt to restructure the performance assessment process and develop an index in urban sanitation, researches done in other urban services such as health and education were studied focusing on methods of measuring under-performance. As a fourth step, a tentative modified framework is suggested with the help of understanding drawn from above for urban sanitation using stages of Urban Sanitation Service Chain Management (SSCM) and modified set of parameters drawn from the literature review in the first and second steps. This paper reviews existing literature on SSCM procedures, Performance Index in sanitation and other urban services and identifies a tentative list of parameters and a framework for measuring under-performance in sanitation services. This may aid in preparation of a Service Delivery Under-performance Index (SDUI) in future.

Keywords: assessment, performance, sanitation, services

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Authors: Sana Sayed

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The words objectives, outcomes, and assessment are commonplace in academia. Educators, especially those who use their emotional intelligence as a useful teaching tool, strive to find creative and innovative ways to connect to their students while meeting the objectives, outcomes, and assessment measures for their respective courses. However, what happens to these outcomes once the objectives have been met, students have completed a specific course, and generic letter grades have been generated? How can their knowledge and acquired skills be assessed over the course of semesters, throughout their years of study, and until their final year right before they graduate? Considering the courses students complete for different departments in various disciplines, how can these outcomes be measured, or at least maintained, across the curriculum? This research-driven paper uses the key course outcomes of first year, required writing courses and traces them in two senior level, required civil engineering design courses at the American University of Sharjah, which is located in the United Arab Emirates. The purpose of this research is two-fold: (1) to assess specific learning outcomes using a case study that focuses on courses from two different disciplines during two very distinctive years of study, and (2) to demonstrate how learning across the curriculum fosters life-long proficiencies among graduating students that are aligned with a university’s mission statement.

Keywords: assessment, learning across the curriculum, objectives, outcomes

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, I-an Jen, Yi-Ming Arthur Chen

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The molecular mimicry between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protein and red blood cell (RBC) antigens could induce the production of anti-RBC autoantibodies. However, the association between HIV infection and subsequent development of autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to determine the association between incident AIHA and HIV in Taiwan. From 2000–2012, we identified adult people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) from the Taiwan centers for disease control HIV Surveillance System. HIV-infected individuals were defined by positive HIV-1 western blot. Age- and sex-matched controls without HIV infection were selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for comparison. All patients were followed until Dec. 31, 2012, and observed for occurrence of AIHA. Of 171,468 subjects (19,052 PLWHA, 152,416 controls), 30 (0.02%) had incident AIHA during a mean follow-up of 5.45 years, including 23 (0.12%) PLWHA and 7 (0.01%) controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, HIV infection was found to be an independent risk factor of incident AIHA (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.34-52.3). Moreover, PLWHA receiving HAART were more likely to develop AIHA than those not receiving HAART (AHR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.90-40.1). Additionally, the risk of AIHA was significantly increased in those taking efavirenz (AHR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.18-8.43) or atazanavir (AHR, 6.58; 95% CI, 1.88-22.9) component of the HAART. In conclusion, HIV infection is an independent risk factor for incident AIHA. Clinicians need to be aware of the higher risk of AIHA in PLWHA.

Keywords: autoimmune disease , hemolytic anemia, HIV, highly active antiretroviral treatment

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: David G. Maxinez, Andrés Ferreyra Ramírez, Liliana Castillo Sánchez, Nancy Adán Mendoza, Carlos Aviles Cruz

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This research describes the use of fuzzy logic in detection, assessment, analysis and evaluation of children with behavioral disorders. It shows how to acquire and analyze ambiguous, vague and full of uncertainty data coming from the input variables to get an accurate assessment result for each of the typologies presented by children with behavior problems. Behavior disorders analyzed in this paper are: hyperactivity (H), attention deficit with hyperactivity (DAH), conduct disorder (TD) and attention deficit (AD).

Keywords: alteration, behavior, centroid, detection, disorders, economic, fuzzy logic, hyperactivity, impulsivity, social

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Authors: Nadia Belu, Laurenţiu Mihai Ionescu, Agnieszka Misztal

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The automotive industry is one of the most important industries in the world that concerns not only the economy, but also the world culture. In the present financial and economic context, this field faces new challenges posed by the current crisis, companies must maintain product quality, deliver on time and at a competitive price in order to achieve customer satisfaction. Two of the most recommended techniques of quality management by specific standards of the automotive industry, in the product development, are Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Control Plan. FMEA is a methodology for risk management and quality improvement aimed at identifying potential causes of failure of products and processes, their quantification by risk assessment, ranking of the problems identified according to their importance, to the determination and implementation of corrective actions related. The companies use Control Plans realized using the results from FMEA to evaluate a process or product for strengths and weaknesses and to prevent problems before they occur. The Control Plans represent written descriptions of the systems used to control and minimize product and process variation. In addition Control Plans specify the process monitoring and control methods (for example Special Controls) used to control Special Characteristics. In this paper we propose a computer-aided solution with Genetic Algorithms in order to reduce the drafting of reports: FMEA analysis and Control Plan required in the manufacture of the product launch and improved knowledge development teams for future projects. The solution allows to the design team to introduce data entry required to FMEA. The actual analysis is performed using Genetic Algorithms to find optimum between RPN risk factor and cost of production. A feature of Genetic Algorithms is that they are used as a means of finding solutions for multi criteria optimization problems. In our case, along with three specific FMEA risk factors is considered and reduce production cost. Analysis tool will generate final reports for all FMEA processes. The data obtained in FMEA reports are automatically integrated with other entered parameters in Control Plan. Implementation of the solution is in the form of an application running in an intranet on two servers: one containing analysis and plan generation engine and the other containing the database where the initial parameters and results are stored. The results can then be used as starting solutions in the synthesis of other projects. The solution was applied to welding processes, laser cutting and bending to manufacture chassis for buses. Advantages of the solution are efficient elaboration of documents in the current project by automatically generating reports FMEA and Control Plan using multiple criteria optimization of production and build a solid knowledge base for future projects. The solution which we propose is a cheap alternative to other solutions on the market using Open Source tools in implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, FMEA, control plan, automotive technology

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Authors: Hamid Abbasi, Neda Jourabchi, Ranasadat Abedi, Kiarash Tajernarenj, Mehdi Farhoudi, Sarvin Sanaie

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Background: Alpha lipoic acid (ALA), fat- and water-soluble, coenzyme with sulfuret content, has received considerable attention for its potential therapeutic role in diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and central nervous disease. This investigation aims to evaluate the probable protective effects of ALA in stroke patients. Methods: Based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, This meta-analysis was performed. The PICO criteria for this meta-analysis were as follows: Population/Patients (P: stroke patients); Intervention (I: ALA); Comparison (C: control); Outcome (O: blood glucose, lipid profile, oxidative stress, inflammatory factors).In addition, Studies that were excluded from the analysis consisted of in vitro, in vivo, and ex vivo studies, case reports, quasi-experimental studies. Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE databases were searched until August 2023. Results: Of 496 records that were screened in the title/abstract stage, 9 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The sample sizes in the included studies vary between 28 and 90. The result of risk of bias was performed via risk of bias (RoB) in randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) based on the second version of the Cochrane RoB assessment tool. 8 studies had a definitely high risk of bias. Discussion: To the best of our knowledge, The present meta-analysis is the first study addressing the effectiveness of ALA supplementation in enhancing post-stroke metabolic markers, including lipid profile, oxidative stress, and inflammatory indices. It is imperative to acknowledge certain potential limitations inherent in this study. First of all, type of treatment (oral or intravenous infusion) could alter the bioavailability of ALA. Our study had restricted evidence regarding the impact of ALA supplementation on included outcomes. Therefore, further research is warranted to develop into the effects of ALA specifically on inflammation and oxidative stress. Funding: The research protocol was approved and supported by the Student Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences (grant number: 72825). Registration: This study was registered in the International prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO ID: CR42023461612).

Keywords: alpha-lipoic acid, lipid profile, blood glucose, inflammatory factors, oxidative stress, meta-analysis, post-stroke

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Authors: Novee Lor C. Leyso, Maylin C. Palatino

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Under-five malnutrition continues to persist in the Philippines, particularly in the island Province of Marinduque, with prevalence of some forms of malnutrition even worsening in recent years. Local spatial cluster detection provides a spatial perspective in understanding this phenomenon as key in analyzing patterns of geographic variation, identification of community-appropriate programs and interventions, and focused targeting on high-risk areas. Using data from a province-wide household-based census conducted in 2014–2016, this study aimed to determine and evaluate spatial clusters of under-five malnutrition, across the province and within each municipality at the individual level using household location. Malnutrition was defined as weight-for-age z-score that fall outside the 2 standard deviations from the median of the WHO reference population. The Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic in binomial model was used to locate clusters with high-risk of malnutrition, while adjusting for age and membership to government conditional cash transfer program as proxy for socio-economic status. One large significant cluster of under-five malnutrition was found southwest of the province, in which living in these areas at least doubles the risk of malnutrition. Additionally, at least one significant cluster were identified within each municipality—mostly located along the coastal areas. All these indicate apparent geographical variations across and within municipalities in the province. There were also similarities and disparities in the patterns of risk of malnutrition in each cluster across municipalities, and even within municipality, suggesting underlying causes at work that warrants further investigation. Therefore, community-appropriate programs and interventions should be identified and should be focused on high-risk areas to maximize limited government resources. Further studies are also recommended to determine factors affecting variations in childhood malnutrition considering the evidence of spatial clustering found in this study.

Keywords: Binomial model, Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic, Philippines, under-five malnutrition

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Authors: Chie Urawa

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Cautionary statements or disclaimers in corporate annual reports need to be carefully designed because clear cautionary statements may protect a company in the case of legal disputes and may undermine positive impressions. This study compares the language of cautionary statements using two corpora, Sony’s cautionary statement corpus (S-corpus) and Panasonic’s cautionary statement corpus (P-corpus), illustrating the differences and similarities in relation to the use of meaningful cautionary statements and critically analyzing why practitioners use the way. The findings describe the distinct differences between the two companies in the presentation of the risk factors and the way how they make the statements. The word ability is used more for legal protection in S-corpus whereas the word possibility is used more to convey a better impression in P-corpus. The main similarities are identified in the use of lexical words and pronouns, and almost the same wordings for eight years. The findings show how they make the statements unique to the company in the presentation of risk factors, and the characteristics of specific genre of professional communication. Important implications of this study are that more comprehensive approach can be applied in other contexts, and be used by companies to reflect upon their cautionary statements.

Keywords: cautionary statements, corporate annual reports, corpus, risk factors

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Authors: Ntungamili Kenosi, Moatlhodi W. Letshwenyo

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Negative environmental impacts due to construction of large projects such as dams have become an important aspect of land degradation. This paper will review the previous literature on the previous researches or study in the same area of study in the other parts of the world. After dam has been constructed, the actual environmental impacts are investigated and compared to the predicted results of the carried out Environmental Impact Assessment. GIS and Remote Sensing, play an important role in generating automated spatial data sets and in establishing spatial relationships. Results from other sources shows that the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) analysis was used to detect the spatial and temporal change of vegetation biomass in the study area. The result indicated that the natural vegetation biomass is declining. This is mainly due to the expansion of agricultural land and escalating human made structures in the area. Urgent environmental conservation is necessary when adjoining projects site. Less study on the evaluation of EIA on dam has been conducted in Botswana hence there is a need for the same study to be conducted and then it will be easy to be compared to other studies around the world.

Keywords: Botswana, dam, environmental impact assessment, GIS, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), remote sensing

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Authors: Badriya Almutairi, Ashraf El-Hamalawi

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Wind energy technologies are considered to be among the most promising types of renewable energy sources due to the growing concerns over climate change and energy security. Kuwait is amongst the countries that began realising the consequences of climate change and the long-term economic and energy security situation, considering options when oil runs out. Added to this are the fluctuating oil prices, rapid increase in population, high electricity consumption and protection of the environment It began to make efforts in the direction of greener solutions for energy needs by looking for alternative forms of energy and assessing potential renewable energy resources, including wind and solar. The aim of this paper is to examine wind energy as an alternative renewable energy source in Kuwait, due to its availability and low cost, reducing the dependency on fossil fuels compared to other forms of renewable energy. This paper will present a life cycle assessment of onshore wind turbine systems in Kuwait, comprising 4 stages; goal and scope of the analysis, inventory analysis, impact assessment and interpretation of the results. It will also provide an assessment of potential renewable energy resources and technologies applied for power generation and the environmental benefits for Kuwait. An optimum location for a site (Shagaya) will be recommended for reasons such as high wind speeds, land availability and distance to the next grid connection, and be the focus of this study. The potential environmental impacts and resources used throughout the wind turbine system’s life-cycle are then analysed using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The results show the total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission for a turbine with steel pile foundations is greater than emissions from a turbine with concrete foundations by 18 %. The analysis also shows the average CO₂ emissions from electricity generated using crude oil is 645gCO₂/kWh and the carbon footprint per functional unit for a wind turbine ranges between 6.6 g/kWh to 10 g/kWh, an increase of 98%, thus providing cost and environmental benefits by creating a wind farm in Kuwait. Using a cost-benefit analysis, it was also found that the electricity produced from wind energy in Kuwait would cost 17.6fils/kWh (0.05834 $/kWh), which is less than the cost of electricity currently being produced using conventional methods at 22 fils/kW (0.07$/kWh), i.e., a reduction of 20%.

Keywords: CO₂ emissions, Kuwait, life cycle assessment, renewable energy, wind energy

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Authors: Nyla Anjum, Humaira Bano

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Disability, regardless of its type and nature limits one or two significant life activities. These limitations constitute risk factors for suicide. Rate and intensity of problem upsurges in critical age of adolescence. Researches in the field of mental health over look problem of suicide among persons with disability. Aim of the study was to investigate prevalence and risk factors for suicide among adolescents with disability. The study constitutes purposive sample of 106 elements of both gender with four major categories of disability: hearing impairment, physical impairment, visual impairment and intellectual disabilities. Face to face interview technique was opted for data collection. Other variable are: socio-economic status, social and family support, provision of services for persons with disability, education and employment opportunities. For data analysis independent sample t-test was applied to find out significant differences in gender and One Way Analysis of variance was run to find out differences among four types of disability. Major predictors of suicide were identified with multiple regression analysis. It is concluded that ideation, plans and attempts of suicide among adolescents with disability is a multifaceted and imperative concern in the area of mental health. Urgent research recommendations contains valid measurement of suicide rate and identification of more risk factors for suicide among persons with disability. Study will also guide towards prevention of this pressing problem and will bring message of happy and healthy life not only for persons with disability but also for their families. It will also help to reduce suicide rate in society.

Keywords: suicide, risk factors, adolescent, disability, mental health

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Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

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Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such a condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due to changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software was conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions, and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: erosion, seepage, landfill, stability

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Authors: Karuna Sutthibenjakul, Sunisa Chatmongkolchart

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Background: Postinduction hypotension is common and occurs more often in elderly patients. We aimed to determine risk factors for hypotension after induction among elderly patients (aged 65 years and older) who underwent elective non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Methods: This cohort study analyzed from 580 data between December 2017 and July 2018 at a tertiary university hospital in south of Thailand. Hypotension is defined as more than 30% decrease mean arterial pressure from baseline after induction within 20 minutes or the use of vasopressive agent to treat low blood pressure. Intraoperative parameters were blood pressure and heart rate at T0, TEI, T5, T10, T15 and T20 (immediately after arrival at operating room, time after intubation, 5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes after intubation) respectively. Results: The median age was 72.5 (68, 78) years. A prevalence of post-induction hypotension was 64.8%. The highest prevalence (39.7%) was at 15 minutes after intubation. The association of post-induction hypotension is rising with diuretic drug as preoperative medication (P-value=0.016), hematocrit level (P-value=0.031) and the degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room (P-value<0.001). Increasing fentanyl dosage during induction was associated with hypotension at intubation time (P-value<0.01) and 5 minutes after intubation (P-value<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the increasing propofol dosage. Conclusion: The degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room and increasing fentanyl dosage were a significant risk factors for postinduction hypotension in elderly patients.

Keywords: risk factors, post-induction, hypotension, elderly

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Authors: Chi-Feng Lai, Wen-Chun Liao Liao

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Many people are bothered by sleep difficulties in Taiwan’s society. However, majority of patients get medical treatments without a comprehensive sleep assessment. It is still a big challenge to formulate a comprehensive assessment of sleep difficulties in clinical settings, even though many assessment tools have existed in literature. This study tries to implement reliable and effective ‘comprehensive sleep assessment scales’ in a medical center and to explore differences in sleep-related factors between clinic clients with or without sleep difficulty complaints. The comprehensive sleep assessment (CSA) scales were composed of 5 dimensions: ‘personal factors’, ‘physiological factors’, ‘psychological factors’, ‘social factors’ and ‘environmental factors, and were first evaluated by expert validity and 20 participants with test-retest reliability. The Content Validity Index (CVI) of the CSA was 0.94 and the alpha of the consistency reliability ranged 0.996-1.000. Clients who visited sleep clinic due to sleep difficulties (n=32, 16 males and 16 females, ages 43.66 ±14.214) and gender-and age- matched healthy subjects without sleep difficulties (n=96, 47 males and 49 females, ages 41.99 ±13.69) were randomly recruited at a ratio of 1:3 (with sleep difficulties vs. without sleep difficulties) to compare their sleep and the CSA factors. Results show that all clinic clients with sleep difficulties did have poor sleep quality (PSQI>5) and mild to moderate daytime sleepiness (ESS >11). Personal factors of long working hours (χ2= 10.315, p=0.001), shift workers (χ2= 8.964, p=0.003), night shift (χ2=9.395, p=0.004) and perceived stress (χ2=9.503, p=0.002) were disruptors of sleep difficulties. Physiological factors from physical examination including breathing by mouth, low soft palate, high narrow palate, Edward Angle, tongue hypertrophy, and occlusion of the worn surface were observed in clinic clients. Psychological factors including higher perceived stress (χ2=32.542, p=0.000), anxiety and depression (χ2=32.868, p=0.000); social factors including lack of leisure activities (χ2=39.857, p=0.000), more drinking habits (χ2=1.798, p=0.018), irregular amount and frequency in meals (χ2=5.086, p=0.024), excessive dinner (χ2=21.511, p=0.000), being incapable of getting up on time due to previous poor night sleep (χ2=4.444, p=0.035); and environmental factors including lights (χ2=7.683, p=0.006), noise (χ2=5.086, p=0.024), low or high bedroom temperature (χ2=4.595, p=0.032) were existed in clients. In conclusion, the CSA scales can work as valid and reliable instruments for evaluating sleep-related factors. Findings of this study provide important reference for assessing clinic clients with sleep difficulties.

Keywords: comprehensive sleep assessment, sleep-related factors, sleep difficulties

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Authors: J. J. Lloyd, J. S. Phillips

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Background: HIV/AIDS has made a huge impact on human development and sexual reproductive habits in this century in the world and especially in sub-Saharan Africa. It has only recently been acknowledged that HIV/AIDS has an equal if not greater effect on or threat to people with disabilities. Survivors of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) with resultant disability are incorrectly believed to be sexually inactive, unlikely to use drugs or alcohol and at less risk of violence or rape than their non-disabled peers. This group can thus be described as economically, educationally and socially disadvantaged, which in itself, suggest that they are a high-risk group for HIV infection. Objectives: Thus, the overall objective of this study was to assess the factors that exacerbate the risk and vulnerability of individuals with spinal cord injuries to HIV infection in order to develop a more effective HIV intervention. Methodology: This paper reports on the cross-sectional data gathered from individuals with a traumatic spinal cord injury in 4 conveniently selected provinces in South Africa. Data was collected by means of self-administered questionnaires. The questionnaire consisted of various sections requesting for information on Demographics; HIV-Knowledge (HIV- KQ-18); Sexual behaviours; sexual communication, and negotiation skills and Self-efficacy to refuse sex. Results: The majority of the study sample was males (72.7%) with a mean age of 34.6 years. The majority reported lifetime sexual intercourse (92.4%) but only 31.8% reported condom use with last sexual intercourse. Low level of HIV knowledge, and being male were the strongest predictor of risky sexual behaviours in this sample. Conclusion: Significant numbers of individuals with spinal cord injuries are thus engaging in risky sexual behaviours pointing to a need to strengthen comprehensive sexual health education to increase access to HIV testing, promote safe sex and condom use among this group.

Keywords: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), individuals with spinal cord injuries, risky sexual behaviours, HIV risk factors, sub-saharan Africa

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: fire, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering

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Authors: Suzanne El Takach

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The research study explored pre-service teachers’ attitudes towards 6 courses taught in 3rd till 6th semesters at the Faculty of Education, Lebanese University, during the academic year 2015-2016. They assessed science teaching courses that are essential for teacher preparation for Science at the primary and elementary level. These courses were: Action Research I and II in Teaching Science, New trends in Teaching Science, Teaching Science I and II for the elementary level and Teaching Science for Early Childhood Education. Qualitative and Quantitative Data were gathered from a) a survey questionnaire consisting of 23 closed-ended items; some were of Likert scale type, that aimed at collecting students’ opinions on courses, in terms of teaching, assessment and class interaction (N=102 respondents) and b) a second questionnaire of 10 questions was disseminated on a sample of 39 students in their last semester in science and Mathematics, in order to know more about students’ skills gained, suggestions for new courses and improvement. Students were satisfied with science teaching courses and they have admitted that they gained a good pedagogical content knowledge, such as, lesson planning, students’ misconceptions, and use of various teaching and assessment strategies.

Keywords: assessment in higher education, LMD program, pre-service teachers’ attitudes, pre-PCK skills

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Zahra Bahadoran, Parvin Mirmiran, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background: Higher consumption of white rice has been suggested as a risk factor for development of metabolic abnormalities. In this study we investigated the association between consumption of white rice and the 3-year occurrence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adults with and without abdominal obesity. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study on 1476 adults, aged 19-70 years. Dietary intakes were measured, using a 168-food items validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Biochemical and anthropometric measurements were evaluated at both baseline (2006-2008) and after 3-year follow-up (2009-2011). MetS and its components were defined according to the diagnostic criteria proposed by NCEP ATP III, and the new cutoff points of waist circumference for Iranian adults. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the occurrence of the MetS in each quartile of white rice consumption. Results: The mean age of participants was 37.8±12.3 y, and mean BMI was 26.0±4.5 kg/m2 at baseline. The prevalence of MetS in subjects with abdominal obesity was significantly higher (40.9 vs. 16.2%, P<0.01). There was no significant difference in white rice consumption between the two groups. Mean daily intake of white rice was 93±59, 209±58, 262±60 and 432±224 g/d, in the first to fourth quartiles of white rice, respectively. Stratified analysis by categories of waist circumference showed that higher consumption of white rice was more strongly related to the risk of metabolic syndrome in participants who had abdominal obesity (OR: 2.34, 95% CI:1.14-4.41 vs. OR:0.99, 95% CI:0.60-1.65) Conclusion: We demonstrated that higher consumption of white rice may be a risk for development of metabolic syndrome in adults with abdominal obesity.

Keywords: white rice, abdominal obesity, metabolic syndrome, food science, triglycerides

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

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Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: activity-based benefit assessment approach, input mixed, output rate, wet blue

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Authors: Rama Bhattacharyya, S. N. Ojha, Umesh K. Singh

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Anthropogenic control on groundwater chemistry has emerged as a critical concern now-a-days, especially in the industrial areas. In view of this, a comprehensive study on the distribution of the heavy metal in the groundwater was conducted to investigate the impact of urbanization in the aquatic media. Water samples either from well or borehole from Fourty different sites in and around, Durgapur, West Bengal were collected for this purpose. The samples were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) for Calcium (Ca), Cobalt (Co), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Magnesium (Mg), Manganese (Mn), Sodium (Na), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn) content and the levels were compared with WHO specified maximum contaminant level as well as permissible limits given by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The result obtained from the present study indicates a significant risk to the population of this important emerging ‘smart city’ of eastern India. Because of the toxicity of these metals and the fact that for many tube-wells, dug-wells and bore-wells are the only sources of the water supply for a major fraction of the population in this environment. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop metal contamination risk map.

Keywords: heavy metals, ground water, maximum contamination level, ICP-MS

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