Search results for: legal judgment prediction
2534 Suicide Wrongful Death: Standard of Care Problems Involving the Inaccurate Discernment of Lethal Risk When Focusing on the Elicitation of Suicide Ideation
Authors: Bill D. Geis
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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death
Procedia PDF Downloads 712533 Institutional Quality and Tax Compliance: A Cross-Country Regression Evidence
Authors: Debi Konukcu Onal, Tarkan Cavusoglu
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In modern societies, the costs of public goods and services are shared through taxes paid by citizens. However, taxation has always been a frictional issue, as tax obligations are perceived to be a financial burden for taxpayers rather than being merit that fulfills the redistribution, regulation and stabilization functions of the welfare state. The tax compliance literature evolves into discussing why people still pay taxes in systems with low costs of legal enforcement. Related empirical and theoretical works show that a wide range of socially oriented behavioral factors can stimulate voluntary compliance and subversive effects as well. These behavioral motivations are argued to be driven by self-enforcing rules of informal institutions, either independently or through interactions with legal orders set by formal institutions. The main focus of this study is to investigate empirically whether institutional particularities have a significant role in explaining the cross-country differences in the tax noncompliance levels. A part of the controversy about the driving forces behind tax noncompliance may be attributed to the lack of empirical evidence. Thus, this study aims to fill this gap through regression estimates, which help to trace the link between institutional quality and noncompliance on a cross-country basis. Tax evasion estimates of Buehn and Schneider is used as the proxy measure for the tax noncompliance levels. Institutional quality is quantified by three different indicators (percentile ranks of Worldwide Governance Indicators, ratings of the International Country Risk Guide, and the country ratings of the Freedom in the World). Robust Least Squares and Threshold Regression estimates based on the sample of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries imply that tax compliance increases with institutional quality. Moreover, a threshold-based asymmetry is detected in the effect of institutional quality on tax noncompliance. That is, the negative effects of tax burdens on compliance are found to be more pronounced in countries with institutional quality below a certain threshold. These findings are robust to all alternative indicators of institutional quality, supporting the significant interaction of societal values with the individual taxpayer decisions.Keywords: institutional quality, OECD economies, tax compliance, tax evasion
Procedia PDF Downloads 1382532 A Generalized Weighted Loss for Support Vextor Classification and Multilayer Perceptron
Authors: Filippo Portera
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Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 1012531 Criminal Protection Objectivity of the Child's Right to Life and Physical and Psychological Safety
Authors: Hezha Hewa, Taher Sur
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Nowadays, child affairs is a matter of both national and international interests. This issue is regarded a vital topic for various scientific fields across ages, and for all the communities without exception. However, the nature of child caring may vary due to the verities in science perspectives. So, considering child's affairs from different perspectives is helpful to have a complementary image about this matter. The purpose behind selecting this topic is to keep a balance between the victim on the one hand, and the guardian and the offender on the other hand, (i.e.) to avoid any kind of excessiveness either in the protection of the child and its rights not in the punishment of the offender. This is achieved through considering various legal materials in the Iraqi legislation and in the comparative legislations that are concerned with the child's issue and the extent to which the child makes use of these rights. The scope of this study involves the crimes that are considered as aggressions against the child's right to life, and the crimes that are dangerous to their physical and psychological safety. So, this study comprehensively considers the intentional murder of child, child murder to avoid disgrace, child kidnapping, child abandonment, physical abuse for the sake of punishment or not, child circumcision, verbal violence, and abstaining from leaving a child with a person who has the right of custody. This study ends with the most significant concluding points that have been derived throughout this study, which are: Unlike the Iraqi legislation, the Egyptian legislation defines the child in the Article 2 of the Child Law No. 12 of 1996 amended by the Law No. 126 of 2008 that the child is a person who does not exceed 18 years of age. Some legislation does not provide special criminal protection for child intentional murder, as in the Iraqi and the Egyptian legislation. However, some others have provided special criminal protection for a child, as in French and Syrian legislations. Child kidnapping is regarded as one of the most dangerous crimes that affects the child and the family as well, as it may expose the child's life to danger or to death. The most significant recommendations from the researcher are: The Iraqi legislation is recommended to take the necessary measures to establish a particular legislation for the child by including all the legal provisions that are associated with this weak creature, and make use of the Egyptian legislator’s experience as a pioneer in this respect. Both the Iraqi legislation and the Egyptian legislation are recommended to enact special laws to protect a child from the crimes of intentional murder, as the crime of child murder is currently subjected to the same provisions consider for adult murder.Keywords: child, criminal, penal, law, safety
Procedia PDF Downloads 2632530 Analysis of Biomarkers Intractable Epileptogenic Brain Networks with Independent Component Analysis and Deep Learning Algorithms: A Comprehensive Framework for Scalable Seizure Prediction with Unimodal Neuroimaging Data in Pediatric Patients
Authors: Bliss Singhal
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Epilepsy is a prevalent neurological disorder affecting approximately 50 million individuals worldwide and 1.2 million Americans. There exist millions of pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy, a condition in which seizures fail to come under control. The occurrence of seizures can result in physical injury, disorientation, unconsciousness, and additional symptoms that could impede children's ability to participate in everyday tasks. Predicting seizures can help parents and healthcare providers take precautions, prevent risky situations, and mentally prepare children to minimize anxiety and nervousness associated with the uncertainty of a seizure. This research proposes a comprehensive framework to predict seizures in pediatric patients by evaluating machine learning algorithms on unimodal neuroimaging data consisting of electroencephalogram signals. The bandpass filtering and independent component analysis proved to be effective in reducing the noise and artifacts from the dataset. Various machine learning algorithms’ performance is evaluated on important metrics such as accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score and MCC. The results show that the deep learning algorithms are more successful in predicting seizures than logistic Regression, and k nearest neighbors. The recurrent neural network (RNN) gave the highest precision and F1 Score, long short-term memory (LSTM) outperformed RNN in accuracy and convolutional neural network (CNN) resulted in the highest Specificity. This research has significant implications for healthcare providers in proactively managing seizure occurrence in pediatric patients, potentially transforming clinical practices, and improving pediatric care.Keywords: intractable epilepsy, seizure, deep learning, prediction, electroencephalogram channels
Procedia PDF Downloads 882529 Gradient Boosted Trees on Spark Platform for Supervised Learning in Health Care Big Data
Authors: Gayathri Nagarajan, L. D. Dhinesh Babu
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Health care is one of the prominent industries that generate voluminous data thereby finding the need of machine learning techniques with big data solutions for efficient processing and prediction. Missing data, incomplete data, real time streaming data, sensitive data, privacy, heterogeneity are few of the common challenges to be addressed for efficient processing and mining of health care data. In comparison with other applications, accuracy and fast processing are of higher importance for health care applications as they are related to the human life directly. Though there are many machine learning techniques and big data solutions used for efficient processing and prediction in health care data, different techniques and different frameworks are proved to be effective for different applications largely depending on the characteristics of the datasets. In this paper, we present a framework that uses ensemble machine learning technique gradient boosted trees for data classification in health care big data. The framework is built on Spark platform which is fast in comparison with other traditional frameworks. Unlike other works that focus on a single technique, our work presents a comparison of six different machine learning techniques along with gradient boosted trees on datasets of different characteristics. Five benchmark health care datasets are considered for experimentation, and the results of different machine learning techniques are discussed in comparison with gradient boosted trees. The metric chosen for comparison is misclassification error rate and the run time of the algorithms. The goal of this paper is to i) Compare the performance of gradient boosted trees with other machine learning techniques in Spark platform specifically for health care big data and ii) Discuss the results from the experiments conducted on datasets of different characteristics thereby drawing inference and conclusion. The experimental results show that the accuracy is largely dependent on the characteristics of the datasets for other machine learning techniques whereas gradient boosting trees yields reasonably stable results in terms of accuracy without largely depending on the dataset characteristics.Keywords: big data analytics, ensemble machine learning, gradient boosted trees, Spark platform
Procedia PDF Downloads 2432528 Exploring the Cultural Significance of Mural Paintings in the Tombs of Gilan, Iran: Evaluation of Drawn Figures
Authors: Zeinab Mirabulqasemi, Gholamali Hatam
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This article discusses the significance of mural paintings in Iranian culture, particularly within the context of religious tombs known as Imamzadehs. These tombs, dedicated to Shiite imams and other revered religious figures, serve as important religious and communal spaces. The tradition of tomb construction evolved from early Islamic practices, gradually transforming burial sites into places of worship. In the Gilan region of Iran, these tombs hold a revered status, serving as focal points for religious observances and social gatherings. The murals adorning these tombs often depict religious motifs, with a particular emphasis on events like the Day of Judgment and the martyrdom of the Imams, notably the saga of Ashura. These paintings also reflect the community's social perspectives and historical allegiances. Various architectural styles are employed in constructing these tombs, including Islamic, traditional, local, and aesthetic architecture. However, the region's climate poses challenges to the preservation of these structures and their murals. Despite these challenges, efforts are made to document and preserve these artworks to ensure their accessibility for future generations. This research also studies tomb paintings by adopting a multifaceted approach, including library research, image analysis, and field research. Finally, it examines the portrayal of significant figures such as the Shiite imams, prophets, and Imamzadehs within these murals, highlighting their thematic significance and cultural importance.Keywords: cultural ritual, Shiite imams, mural, belief foundations, religious paintings
Procedia PDF Downloads 582527 Validation of Asymptotic Techniques to Predict Bistatic Radar Cross Section
Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert
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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics
Procedia PDF Downloads 2612526 Brazilian Public Security: Governability and Constitutional Change
Authors: Gabriel Dolabella, Henrique Rangel, Stella Araújo, Carlos Bolonha, Igor de Lazari
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Public security is a common subject on the Brazilian political agenda. The seventh largest economy in the world has high crime and insecurity rates. Specialists try to explain this social picture based on poverty, inequality or public policies addressed to drug trafficking. This excerpt approaches State measures to handle that picture. Therefore, the public security - law enforcement institutions - is at the core of this paper, particularly the relationship among federal and state law enforcement agencies, mainly ruled by a system of urgency. The problems are informal changes on law enforcement management and public opinion collaboration to these changes. Whenever there were huge international events, Brazilian armed forces occupied streets to assure law enforcement - ensuring the order. This logic, considered in the long time, could impact the federal structure of the country. The post-madisonian theorists verify that urgency is often associated to delegation of powers, which is true for Brazilian law enforcement, but here there is a different delegation: States continuously delegate law enforcement powers to the federal government throughout the use of Armed Forces. Therefore, the hypothesis is: Brazil is under a political process of federalization of public security. The political framework addressed here can be explained by the disrespect of legal constraints and the failure of rule of law theoretical models. The methodology of analysis is based on general criteria. Temporally, this study investigates events from 2003, when discussions about the disarmament statute begun. Geographically, this study is limited to Brazilian borders. Materially, the analysis result from the observation of legal resources and political resources (pronouncements of government officials). The main parameters are based on post-madisonianism and federalization of public security can be assessed through credibility and popularity that allow evaluation of this political process of constitutional change. The objective is to demonstrate how the Military Forces are used in public security, not as a random fact or an isolated political event, in order to understand the political motivations and effects that stem from that use from an institutional perspective.Keywords: public security, governability, rule of law, federalism
Procedia PDF Downloads 6802525 Effects of the Purpose Expropriation of Land Consolidation to Landholding
Authors: Turgut Ayten, Tayfun Çay
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In the current expropriation of Turkey, the state acquires necessary lands for its investment without permission of the owners and not searching for alternative solutions, so it is determined that neither processor nor processed is not happy. In this study, interactions of enterprises in Turkey are analysed in case the necessary land for public investments are acquired by expropriation purposed land consolidation. Legal basis, positive and negative sides, financial effects to enterprises of this method is evaluated according to Konya Kadınhanı, Kolukısa avenue which is on the Konya-Ankara High-Speed Train Route.Keywords: expropriation, land consolidation, land consolidation for expropriation purpose, sustainable rural development
Procedia PDF Downloads 5112524 Field Prognostic Factors on Discharge Prediction of Traumatic Brain Injuries
Authors: Mohammad Javad Behzadnia, Amir Bahador Boroumand
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Introduction: Limited facility situations require allocating the most available resources for most casualties. Accordingly, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is the one that may need to transport the patient as soon as possible. In a mass casualty event, deciding when the facilities are restricted is hard. The Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOSE) has been introduced to assess the global outcome after brain injuries. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors associated with GOSE. Materials and Methods: In a multicenter cross-sectional study conducted on 144 patients with TBI admitted to trauma emergency centers. All the patients with isolated TBI who were mentally and physically healthy before the trauma entered the study. The patient’s information was evaluated, including demographic characteristics, duration of hospital stays, mechanical ventilation on admission laboratory measurements, and on-admission vital signs. We recorded the patients’ TBI-related symptoms and brain computed tomography (CT) scan findings. Results: GOSE assessments showed an increasing trend by the comparison of on-discharge (7.47 ± 1.30), within a month (7.51 ± 1.30), and within three months (7.58 ± 1.21) evaluations (P < 0.001). On discharge, GOSE was positively correlated with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (r = 0.729, P < 0.001) and motor GCS (r = 0.812, P < 0.001), and inversely with age (r = −0.261, P = 0.002), hospitalization period (r = −0.678, P < 0.001), pulse rate (r = −0.256, P = 0.002) and white blood cell (WBC). Among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms in univariate analysis, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), interventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (P = 0.006), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) (P = 0.06; marginally at P < 0.1), subdural hemorrhage (SDH) (P = 0.032), and epidural hemorrhage (EDH) (P = 0.037) were significantly associated with GOSE at discharge in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Our study showed some predictive factors that could help to decide which casualty should transport earlier to a trauma center. According to the current study findings, GCS, pulse rate, WBC, and among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms, ICH, IVH, SAH, SDH, and EDH are significant independent predictors of GOSE at discharge in TBI patients.Keywords: field, Glasgow outcome score, prediction, traumatic brain injury.
Procedia PDF Downloads 792523 The Saying of Conceptual Metaphors about Law, Righteousness, and Justice in the Old Testament: Cardinal Tendencies
Authors: Ivana Prochazkova
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Cognitive linguistics offers biblical scholarship a specific methodological tool for analysis and interpretation of metaphorical expressions. Its methodology makes it possible to study processes involved in constructing the meaning of individual metaphorical expressions and whole conceptual metaphors; to analyze their function in the text; to follow the semantic development of concepts and conceptual domains, and to trace semantic changes and their motivation. The legal language in the Hebrew canon is extremely specific and formalized. Especially in the preambles to the collections of laws in the Pentateuch, more general considerations of the motif of keeping and breaking the law are encountered. This is also true in the psalms and wisdom literature. Legal theory and the philosophy of law deal with these motifs today. Metaphors play an important role in texts that reflect on more general issues. The purpose of this conference contribution is to write all over the central metaphorical concept, conceptual metaphor ךרד תורה (TORAH/LAW IS A JOURNEY), its function in the Torah and principal trends of the further development in the Prophets and the Writings. The conceptual metaphor תורה ךרד (TORAH/LAW IS A JOURNEY) constitutes a coherent system in conjunction with other metaphors that include e.g., conceptual metaphors נחה תורה (TORAH/LAW LEADS); its variant רעה תורה (TORAH IS A SHEPHERD/GUIDE); מקור תורה (TORAH/LAW IS A FOUNTAIN/A SOURCE OF LIFE). Some conceptual metaphors are well known, and their using are conventional (עשׁר תורה TORAH/LAW IS RICHES, שׂשׂון תורה TORAH/LAW IS DELIGHT, דבשׁ תורה TORAH/LAW IS HONEY, שׁמשׁ תורה TORAH/LAW IS SUN ). But some conceptual metaphors are by its occurrence innovative and unique (e.g., שׁריון תורה TORAH /LAW IS BODY ARMOR, כובע תורה TORAH /LAW IS A HELMET, בגד תורה TORAH/LAW IS A GARMENT, etc.). There will be given examples. Conceptual metaphors will be described by means of some 'metaphorical vehicles,' which are Hebrew expressions in the source domain that are repeatedly used in metaphorical conceptualizations of the target domain(s). Conceptual metaphors will be further described by means of 'generic narrative structures,' which are the particular aspects of a conceptual metaphor that emerge during the metaphorical structuring of concepts. They are the units of the metaphorical vehicles – the Hebrew expressions in the source domain – that structure concepts in much the same way that the conceptual metaphor in the target domain does. And finally, they will be described by means of the network of correspondences that exist between metaphorical vehicles – or generic metaphorical structures – and the Hebrew expressions in the target domain.Keywords: cognitive theology, conceptual metaphor in the Old Testament, conceptual metaphors of the Torah, conceptual domain of law, righteousness, and justice
Procedia PDF Downloads 2072522 Third Party Logistics (3PL) Selection Criteria for an Indian Heavy Industry Using SEM
Authors: Nadama Kumar, P. Parthiban, T. Niranjan
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In the present paper, we propose an incorporated approach for 3PL supplier choice that suits the distinctive strategic needs of the outsourcing organization in southern part of India. Four fundamental criteria have been used in particular Performance, IT, Service and Intangible. These are additionally subdivided into fifteen sub-criteria. The proposed strategy coordinates Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Non-additive Fuzzy Integral strategies. The presentation of fluffiness manages the unclearness of human judgments. The SEM approach has been used to approve the determination criteria for the proposed show though the Non-additive Fuzzy Integral approach uses the SEM display contribution to assess a supplier choice score. The case organization has a exclusive vertically integrated assembly that comprises of several companies focusing on a slight array of the value chain. To confirm manufacturing and logistics proficiency, it significantly relies on 3PL suppliers to attain supply chain superiority. However, 3PL supplier selection is an intricate decision-making procedure relating multiple selection criteria. The goal of this work is to recognize the crucial 3PL selection criteria by using the non-additive fuzzy integral approach. Unlike the outmoded multi criterion decision-making (MCDM) methods which frequently undertake independence among criteria and additive importance weights, the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective method to resolve the dependency among criteria, vague information, and vital fuzziness of human judgment. In this work, we validate an empirical case that engages the nonadditive fuzzy integral to assess the importance weight of selection criteria and indicate the most suitable 3PL supplier.Keywords: 3PL, non-additive fuzzy integral approach, SEM, fuzzy
Procedia PDF Downloads 2852521 Estimation of Fragility Curves Using Proposed Ground Motion Selection and Scaling Procedure
Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar
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Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve
Procedia PDF Downloads 5882520 A Long Short-Term Memory Based Deep Learning Model for Corporate Bond Price Predictions
Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami
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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 1392519 Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications
Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić
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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises
Procedia PDF Downloads 2542518 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks
Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita
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In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.Keywords: recurrent neural network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model
Procedia PDF Downloads 1352517 Exploring the Ethics and Impact of Slum Tourism in Kenya: A Critical Examination on the Ethical Implications, Legalities and Beneficiaries of This Trade and Long-Term Implications to the Slum Communities
Authors: Joanne Ndirangu
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Delving into the intricate landscape of slum tourism in Kenya, this study critically evaluates its ethical implications, legal frameworks, and beneficiaries. By examining the complex interplay between tourism operators, visitors, and slum residents, it seeks to uncover the long-term consequences for the communities involved. Through an exploration of ethical considerations, legal parameters, and the distribution of benefits, this examination aims to shed light on the broader socio-economic impacts of slum tourism in Kenya, particularly on the lives of those residing in these marginalized communities. Assessing the ethical considerations surrounding slum tourism in Kenya, including the potential exploitation of residents and cultural sensitivities and examine the legal frameworks governing slum tourism in Kenya and evaluate their effectiveness in protecting the rights and well-being of slum dwellers. Identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism in Kenya, including tour operators, local businesses, and residents, and analysing the distribution of economic benefits. Exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism on the lives of residents, including changes in living conditions, access to resources, and community development. Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism in Kenya and assess their role in shaping the industry's dynamics and investigate the potential for sustainable and responsible forms of slum tourism that prioritize community empowerment, cultural exchange, and mutual respect. Providing recommendations for policymakers, tourism stakeholders, and community organizations to promote ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism in Kenya. The main contributions of researching slum tourism in Kenya would include; Ethical Awareness: By critically examining the ethical implications of slum tourism, the research can raise awareness among tourists, operators, and policymakers about the potential exploitation of marginalized communities. Beneficiary Analysis: By identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism, the research can inform discussions on fair distribution of economic benefits and potential strategies for ensuring that local communities derive meaningful advantages from tourism activities. Socio-Economic Understanding: By exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism, the research can deepen understanding of how tourism activities affect the lives of slum residents, potentially informing policies and initiatives aimed at improving living conditions and promoting community development. Tourist Perspectives: Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism can provide valuable insights into consumer behaviour and preferences, informing the development of responsible tourism practices and marketing strategies. Promotion of Responsible Tourism: By providing recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism, the research can contribute to the development of guidelines and initiatives aimed at fostering responsible tourism and minimizing negative impacts on host communities. Overall, the research can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of slum tourism in Kenya and its broader implications, while also offering practical recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable tourism practices.Keywords: slum tourism, dark tourism, ethical tourism, responsible tourism
Procedia PDF Downloads 752516 Exploration of Professional Skepticism among Entry-level Auditors in China from Psychological and Cultural Perspectives
Authors: Sammy Xiaoyan Ying
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Professional skepticism remains one of the most important and controversial topics in auditing. This study examines the influence of client cooperativeness and fraud risk on judgments of professional skepticism among Chinese entry-level auditors in the context of evaluation of client-provided audit evidence. Given that the essence of auditors’ PS rests on distrust of clients, this study invokes trust-related theories from psychological and cultural perspectives. Specifically, invoking psychology theories of trust concerning positive relationship between risk and distrust, this study hypothesizes that professional skepticism is likely to be positively associated with client fraud risk. The results support the hypothesis and show that lower (higher) levels of client fraud risk lead to lower (higher) levels of professional skepticism. Furthermore, drawing on analysis of relationship between cooperation and trust, with particular reference to guanxi dynamics in the Chinese culture, this study hypothesizes that professional skepticism is likely to be negatively associated with client cooperativeness. The results support the hypothesis and show that higher (lower) levels of client cooperativeness lead to lower (higher) levels of professional skepticism. The findings may assist audit firms and auditing educators in improving training and education programs and enhancing entry-level auditors’ abilities to maintain professional skepticism. Also, practitioners and regulators may benefit from increasing awareness of psychological factors in influencing professional skepticism.Keywords: audit judgment, Chinese culture, entry-level auditor, professional skepticism
Procedia PDF Downloads 2932515 Comparing Performance of Neural Network and Decision Tree in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction
Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan
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Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 4312514 The Human Process of Trust in Automated Decisions and Algorithmic Explainability as a Fundamental Right in the Exercise of Brazilian Citizenship
Authors: Paloma Mendes Saldanha
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Access to information is a prerequisite for democracy while also guiding the material construction of fundamental rights. The exercise of citizenship requires knowing, understanding, questioning, advocating for, and securing rights and responsibilities. In other words, it goes beyond mere active electoral participation and materializes through awareness and the struggle for rights and responsibilities in the various spaces occupied by the population in their daily lives. In times of hyper-cultural connectivity, active citizenship is shaped through ethical trust processes, most often established between humans and algorithms. Automated decisions, so prevalent in various everyday situations, such as purchase preference predictions, virtual voice assistants, reduction of accidents in autonomous vehicles, content removal, resume selection, etc., have already found their place as a normalized discourse that sometimes does not reveal or make clear what violations of fundamental rights may occur when algorithmic explainability is lacking. In other words, technological and market development promotes a normalization for the use of automated decisions while silencing possible restrictions and/or breaches of rights through a culturally modeled, unethical, and unexplained trust process, which hinders the possibility of the right to a healthy, transparent, and complete exercise of citizenship. In this context, the article aims to identify the violations caused by the absence of algorithmic explainability in the exercise of citizenship through the construction of an unethical and silent trust process between humans and algorithms in automated decisions. As a result, it is expected to find violations of constitutionally protected rights such as privacy, data protection, and transparency, as well as the stipulation of algorithmic explainability as a fundamental right in the exercise of Brazilian citizenship in the era of virtualization, facing a threefold foundation called trust: culture, rules, and systems. To do so, the author will use a bibliographic review in the legal and information technology fields, as well as the analysis of legal and official documents, including national documents such as the Brazilian Federal Constitution, as well as international guidelines and resolutions that address the topic in a specific and necessary manner for appropriate regulation based on a sustainable trust process for a hyperconnected world.Keywords: artificial intelligence, ethics, citizenship, trust
Procedia PDF Downloads 692513 Global Migration and Endangered Majorities in Europe
Authors: Liav Orgad
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This article challenges one of the most fundamental propositions in the democratic theory that the majority culture is protected merely by the forces of democracy and thus needs no special legal protection. By describing changes in the patterns of migration to Europe, in the face of the European society, and in the world as a whole, the Article demonstrates that the majority culture is no longer automatically protected by the forces of democracy. It claims that the changing reality is not adequately addressed by political theory and human rights law and advances the promotion of a new concept—'cultural majority rights'.Keywords: European migration, European demography, democratic theory, majority rights, integration
Procedia PDF Downloads 4032512 Perceived Barriers and Benefits of Technology-Based Progress Monitoring for Non-Academic Individual Education Program Goals
Authors: A. Drelick, T. Sondergeld, M. Decarlo-Tecce, K. McGinley
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In 1975, a free, appropriate public education (FAPE) was granted for all students in the United States regardless of their disabilities. As a result, the special education landscape has been reshaped through new policies and legislation. Progress monitoring, a specific component of an Individual Education Program (IEP) calls, for the use of data collection to determine the appropriateness of services provided to students with disabilities. The recent US Supreme Court ruling in Endrew F. v. Douglas County warrants giving increased attention to student progress, specifically pertaining to improving functional, or non-academic, skills that are addressed outside the general education curriculum. While using technology to enhance data collection has become a common practice for measuring academic growth, its application for non-academic IEP goals is uncertain. A mixed-methods study examined current practices and rationales for implementing technology-based progress monitoring focused on non-academic IEP goals. Fifty-seven participants responded to an online survey regarding their progress monitoring programs for non-academic goals. After isolated analysis and interpretation of quantitative and qualitative results, data were synthesized to produce meta-inferences that drew broader conclusions on the topic. For the purpose of this paper, specific focus will be placed on the perceived barriers and benefits of implementing technology-based progress monitoring protocols for non-academic IEP goals. The findings of this study highlight facts impacting the use of technology-based progress monitoring. Perceived barriers to implementation include: (1) lack of training, (2) access to technology, (3) outdated or inoperable technology, (4) reluctance to change, (5) cost, (6) lack of individualization within technology-based programs, and (7) legal issues in special education; while perceived benefits include: (1) overall ease of use, (2) accessibility, (3) organization, (4) potential for improved presentation of data, (5) streamlining the progress-monitoring process, and (6) legal issues in special education. Based on these conclusions, recommendations are made to IEP teams, school districts, and software developers to improve the progress-monitoring process for functional skills.Keywords: special education, progress monitoring, functional skills, technology
Procedia PDF Downloads 2512511 Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Students’ Academic Performance and Study Strategies Based on Their Motivation
Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva
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This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 1352510 Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in Landslides Prediction
Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne
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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3862509 The Applicability of Just Satisfaction in Inter-State Cases: A Case Study of Cyprus versus Turkey
Authors: Congrui Chen
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The European Court of Human Rights (hereinafter ECtHR) delivered its judgment of just satisfaction on the case of Cyprus v. Turkey, ordering a lump sum of 9,000,000 euros as the just compensation. It is the first time that the ECtHR applied the Article 41 of just compensation in an inter-state case, and it stands as the highest amount of just compensation awarded in the history of the ECtHR. The Cyprus v. Turkey case, which represents the most crucial contribution to European peace in the history of the court. This thesis uses the methodologies of textual research, comparison analysis, and case law study to go further on the following two questions specifically:(i) whether the just compensation is applicable in an inter-state case; (ii) whether such just compensation is of punitive nature. From the point of view of general international law, the essence of the case is the state's responsibility for the violation of individual rights. In other words, the state takes a similar diplomatic protection approach to seek relief. In the course of the development of international law today, especially with the development of international human rights law, States that have a duty to protect human rights should bear corresponding responsibilities for their violations of international human rights law. Under the specific system of the European Court of Human Rights, the just compensation for article 41 is one of the specific ways of assuming responsibility. At the regulatory level, the European Court of Human Rights makes it clear that the just satisfaction of article 41 of the Convention does not include punitive damages, as it relates to the issue of national sovereignty. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the relief to the victim and the punishment to the responsible State are two closely integrated aspects of responsibility. In other words, compensatory compensation has inherent "punitive".Keywords: European Court of Human Right, inter-state cases, just satisfaction, punitive damages
Procedia PDF Downloads 2702508 Employment Discrimination on Civil Servant Recruitment
Authors: Li Lei, Jia Jidong
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Employment right is linked to the people’s livelihood in our society. As a most important and representative part in the labor market, the employment of public servants is always taking much attention. But the discrimination in the employment of public servants has always existed and, to become a controversy in our society. The paper try to discuss this problem from four parts as follows: First, the employment of public servants has a representative status in our labor market. The second part is about the discrimination in the employment of public servants. The third part is about the right of equality and its significance. The last part is to analysis the legal predicament about discrimination in the employment of public servants in China.Keywords: discrimination, employment of public servants, right of labor, law
Procedia PDF Downloads 4092507 Closing the Front Door of Child Protection: Rethinking Mandated Reporting
Authors: Miriam Itzkowitz, Katie Olson
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Through an interdisciplinary and trauma-responsive lens, this article reviews the legal and social history of mandated reporting laws and family separation, examines the ethical conundrum of mandated reporting as it relates to evidence-based practice, and discusses alternatives to mandated reporting as a primary prevention strategy. Using existing and emerging data, the authors argue that mandated reporting as a universal strategy contributes to racial disproportionality in the child welfare system and that anti-racist practices should begin with an examination of our reliance on mandated reporting.Keywords: child welfare, education, mandated reporting, racial disproportionality, trauma
Procedia PDF Downloads 3592506 Predicting Food Waste and Losses Reduction for Fresh Products in Modified Atmosphere Packaging
Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie
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To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 1862505 Abridging Pharmaceutical Analysis and Drug Discovery via LC-MS-TOF, NMR, in-silico Toxicity-Bioactivity Profiling for Therapeutic Purposing Zileuton Impurities: Need of Hour
Authors: Saurabh B. Ganorkar, Atul A. Shirkhedkar
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The need for investigations protecting against toxic impurities though seems to be a primary requirement; the impurities which may prove non - toxic can be explored for their therapeutic potential if any to assist advanced drug discovery. The essential role of pharmaceutical analysis can thus be extended effectively to achieve it. The present study successfully achieved these objectives with characterization of major degradation products as impurities for Zileuton which has been used for to treat asthma since years. The forced degradation studies were performed to identify the potential degradation products using Ultra-fine Liquid-chromatography. Liquid-chromatography-Mass spectrometry (Time of Flight) and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Studies were utilized effectively to characterize the drug along with five major oxidative and hydrolytic degradation products (DP’s). The mass fragments were identified for Zileuton and path for the degradation was investigated. The characterized DP’s were subjected to In-Silico studies as XP Molecular Docking to compare the gain or loss in binding affinity with 5-Lipooxygenase enzyme. One of the impurity of was found to have the binding affinity more than the drug itself indicating for its potential to be more bioactive as better Antiasthmatic. The close structural resemblance has the ability to potentiate or reduce bioactivity and or toxicity. The chances of being active biologically at other sites cannot be denied and the same is achieved to some extent by predictions for probability of being active with Prediction of Activity Spectrum for Substances (PASS) The impurities found to be bio-active as Antineoplastic, Antiallergic, and inhibitors of Complement Factor D. The toxicological abilities as Ames-Mutagenicity, Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity and Skin Irritancy were evaluated using Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology (TOPKAT). Two of the impurities were found to be non-toxic as compared to original drug Zileuton. As the drugs are purposed and repurposed effectively the impurities can also be; as they can have more binding affinity; less toxicity and better ability to be bio-active at other biological targets.Keywords: UFLC, LC-MS-TOF, NMR, Zileuton, impurities, toxicity, bio-activity
Procedia PDF Downloads 198