Search results for: accident scenarios

Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Oluwamayowa Oluwafemi Oluwaniyi

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Agriculture and food processing, industry are among the largest industrial sectors that uses large amount of energy. Thus, a larger amount of gases from their fuel combustion technologies is being released into the environment. The choice of input energy supply not only directly having affects the environment, but also poses a threat to human health. The study was therefore designed to assess each unit production processes in order to identify hotspots using life cycle assessments (LCA) approach in South-western Nigeria. Data such as machine power rating, operation duration, inputs and outputs of shea butter materials for unit processes obtained at site were used to modelled Life Cycle Impact Analysis on GaBi6 (Holistic Balancing) software. Four scenarios were drawn for the impact assessments. Material sourcing from Kaiama, Scenarios 1, 3 and Minna Scenarios 2, 4 but different heat supply sources (Liquefied Petroleum Gas ‘LPG’ Scenarios 1, 2 and 10.8 kW Diesel Heater, scenarios 3, 4). Modelling of shea butter production on GaBi6 was for 1kg functional unit of shea butter produced and the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) midpoint assessment was tool used to was analyse the life cycle inventories of the four scenarios. Eight categories in all four Scenarios were observed out of which three impact categories; Global Warming Potential (GWP) (0.613, 0.751, 0.661, 0.799) kg CO2¬-Equiv., Acidification Potential (AP) (0.112, 0.132, 0.129, 0.149) kg H+ moles-Equiv., and Smog (0.044, 0.059, 0.049, 0.063) kg O3-Equiv., categories had the greater impacts on the environment in Scenarios 1-4 respectively. Impacts from transportation activities was also seen to contribute more to these environmental impact categories due to large volume of petrol combusted leading to releases of gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, and NOx into the environment during the transportation of raw shea kernel purchased. The ratio of transportation distance from Minna and Kaiama to production site was approximately 3.5. Shea butter unit processes with greater impacts in all categories was the packaging, milling and with the churning processes in ascending order of magnitude was identified as hotspots that may require attention. From the 1kg shea butter functional unit, it was inferred that locating production site at the shortest travelling distance to raw material sourcing and combustion of LPG for heating would reduce all the impact categories assessed on the environment.

Keywords: GaBi6, Life cycle assessment, shea butter production, TRACI

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Fatemeh Mohajeri

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Road traffic accidents lead to a higher rate of death and injury, especially in vulnerable road users such as pedestrians. Improving the safety of facilities for pedestrians is a major concern for policymakers because of the high number of pedestrian fatalities and direct and indirect costs which are imposed to the society. This study focuses on the idea of determining the willingness to pay of pedestrians for increasing their safety while crossing the street. In this study, three different scenarios including crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities, crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a pedestrian traffic light and constructing a pedestrian bridge with escalator are presented. The research was conducted based on stated preferences method. The required data were collected from a questionnaire that consisted of three parts: pedestrian’s demographic characteristics, travel characteristics and scenarios. Four different payment amounts are presented for each scenario and a logit model has been built for each proposed payment. The results show that sex, age, education, average household income and individual salary have significant effect on choosing a scenario. Among the policies that have been mentioned through the questionnaire scenarios, the scenario of crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a traffic lights is the most frequent, with willingness to pay 10,000 Rials and the scenario of crossing the street with a zebra crossing with a willingness to pay 100,000 Rials having the least frequency. For all scenarios, as the payment is increasing, the willingness to pay decreases.

Keywords: pedestrians, willingness to pay, safety, immunization

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Authors: A. Ribeiro, N. Pacheco, M. Soares, N. Valério, L. Nascimento, A. Silva, C. Vilarinho, J. Carvalho

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Hydrogen will play a key role in changing the current global energy paradigm, associated with the high use of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases. This work intended to identify and quantify the potential of Solid Recovered Fuels (SFR) existing in Portugal and project the cost of hydrogen, produced through its steam gasification in different scenarios, associated with the size or capacity of the plant and the existence of carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Therefore, it was performed a techno-economic analysis simulation using an ASPEN base model, the H2A Hydrogen Production Model Version 3.2018. Regarding the production of SRF, it was possible to verify the annual production of more than 200 thousand tons of SRF in Portugal in 2019. The results of the techno-economic analysis simulations showed that in the scenarios containing a high (200,000 tons/year) and medium (40,000 tons/year) amount of SFR, the cost of hydrogen production was competitive concerning the current prices of hydrogen. The results indicate that scenarios 1 and 2, which use 200,000 tons of SRF per year, have lower hydrogen production values, 1.22 USD/kg H2 and 1.63 USD/kg H2, respectively. The cost of producing hydrogen without carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems in an average amount of SFR (40,000 tons/year) was 1.70 USD/kg H2. In turn, scenarios 5 (without CCS) and 6 (with CCS), which use only 683 tons of SFR from urban sources, have the highest costs, 6.54 USD/kg H2 and 908.97 USD/kg H2, respectively. Therefore, it was possible to conclude that there is a huge potential for the use of SRF for the production of hydrogen through steam gasification in Portugal.

Keywords: gasification, hydrogen, solid recovered fuels, techno-economic analysis, waste-to-energy

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Authors: Lida Landicho, Analiza R. Adarlo, Janine Mae V. Corpuz, Joan C. Villanueva

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Testing the idea that the process of forgiveness is intrinsically different across diverse relationships, this study examined whether forgiveness can already be facilitated by children ages 4-6. Two different intervention sessions which consists of 40 children (half heard stories about unfair blame and half heard stories about a double standard (between subjects variable) was completed. Investigators performed experimental analyses to examine the role of forgiveness in social and familial context. Results indicated that forgiveness can already be facilitated by children. Children see scenarios on double standard to be more unfair than normal scenarios (Scenario 2 (double standard) (M=7.54) Scenario 1 (unfair blame) (M=4.50), Scenario 4 (double standard) (M=7.) Scenario 3 (getting blamed for something the friend did) (M=6.80)p <.05.The findings confirmed that children were generally willing to grant forgiveness to a mother even though she was unfair, but less so to a friend. Correlations between sex, age and forgiveness were analyzed. Significant relationships was found on scenarios presented and caring task scores (rxy= -.314).Their tendency to forgive was related to dispositional and situational factors.

Keywords: forgiveness, situational and dispositional factors, familial context, social context

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Authors: Davi Marinho de Araujo Falcão, Ronaldo Moreira Salles, Paulo Henrique Maranhão

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Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTN) are an evolution of Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET) and work good in scenarioswhere nodes are sparsely distributed, with low density, intermittent connections and an end-to-end infrastructure is not possible to guarantee. Therefore, DTNs are recommended for high latency applications that can last from hours to days. The maritime scenario has mobility characteristics that contribute to a DTN network approach, but the concern with data security is also a relevant aspect in such scenarios. Continuing the previous work, which evaluated the performance of some DTN protocols (Epidemic, Spray and Wait, and Direct Delivery) in three warship scenarios and proposed the application of discriminant analysis, as a classification technique for secure connections, in the Epidemic protocol, thus, the current article proposes a new analysis of the directional discriminant function with opening angles smaller than 90 degrees, demonstrating that the increase in directivity influences the selection of a greater number of secure connections by the directional discriminant Epidemic protocol.

Keywords: DTN, discriminant function, epidemic protocol, security, tactical messages, warship scenario

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Authors: Gul Nihal Gugul, Merih Aydinalp-Koksal

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In this study, hourly energy consumption model of a single detached house in Ankara, Turkey is developed using ESP-r building energy simulation software. Natural gas is used for space heating, cooking, and domestic water heating in this two story 4500 square feet four-bedroom home. Hourly electricity consumption of the home is monitored by an automated meter reading system, and daily natural gas consumption is recorded by the owners during 2013. Climate data of the region and building envelope data are used to develop the model. The heating energy consumption of the house that is estimated by the ESP-r model is then compared with the actual heating demand to determine the performance of the model. Scenarios are applied to the model to determine the amount of reduction in the total energy consumption of the house. The scenarios are using photovoltaic panels to generate electricity, ground source heat pumps for space heating and solar panels for domestic hot water generation. Alternative scenarios such as improving wall and roof insulations and window glazing are also applied. These scenarios are evaluated based on annual energy, associated CO2 emissions, and fuel expenditure savings. The pay-back periods for each scenario are also calculated to determine best alternative energy source or technology option for this home to reduce annual energy use and CO2 emission.

Keywords: ESP-r, building energy simulation, residential energy saving, CO2 reduction

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Authors: Mohamad Saab, Sidi Souvi

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In a major nuclear accident, the released fission products (FPs) and the structural materials are likely to influence the transport of iodine in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). So far, the thermodynamic data on cesium and silver species used to estimate the magnitude of FP release show some discrepancies, data are scarce and not reliable. For this reason, it is crucial to review the thermodynamic values related to cesium and silver materials. To this end, we have used state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄ in the gas phase. Different quantum chemical methods have been investigated (DFT and CCSD(T)) in order to predict the geometrical parameters and the energetics including the correlation energy. The geometries were optimized with TPSSh-5%HF method, followed by a single point calculation of the total electronic energies using the CCSD(T) wave function method. We thus propose with a final uncertainty of about 2 kJmol⁻¹ standard enthalpies of formation of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄.

Keywords: nuclear accident, ASTEC code, thermochemical database, quantum chemical methods

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

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In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

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Authors: Mira Ezora Zainal Abidin, Siti Fauzuna Othman, Zalina Harun, M. Hafiz M. Pikri

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In a fire incident involving a Nitrogen storage tank that over-pressured and exploded, resulting in a fire in one of the units in a refinery, lack of data and evidence hampered the investigation to determine the root cause. Instrumentation and fittings were destroyed in the fire. To make it worst, this incident occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, making collecting and testing evidence delayed. In addition to that, the storage tank belonged to a third-party company which requires legal agreement prior to the refinery getting approval to test the remains. Despite all that, the investigation had to be carried out with stakeholders demanding answers. The investigation team had to devise alternative means to support whatever little evidence came out as the most probable root cause. International standards, practices, and previous incidents on similar tanks were referred. To narrow down to just one root cause from 8 possible causes, transient simulations were conducted to simulate the overpressure scenarios to prove and eliminate the other causes, leaving one root cause. This paper shares the methodology used and details how transient simulations were applied to help solve this. The experience and lessons learned gained from the event investigation and from numerous case studies via transient analysis in finding the root cause of the accident leads to the formulation of future mitigations and design modifications aiming at preventing such incidents or at least minimize the consequences from the fire incident.

Keywords: fire, transient, simulation, relief

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Authors: Lessly Borja, Anthony Gualli, Kelly Baño, Fabricio Santacruz

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In this article, a prototype of underwater communication using a long-range laser (50mW) has been carried out in two aquatic scenarios (fish tank and swimming pool) with the aim of recreating Aqua-Fi technology (the future of underwater communications) using a Bluetooth connection to the transmitter to send data in ASCII code by means of light. Initially, the transmitter and receiver circuits were programmed in Arduino so that the data would travel by light pulses in the aforementioned code. To obtain the results of the underwater communication, two scenarios were chosen (fish tank and swimming pool), where the power value of the received signal was calculated from its peak-to-peak voltage using the Oscilloscope equipment (ESPOCH). Finally, it was concluded that the maximum communication range of this prototype is 12m underwater, and it was observed that the power decreases as the distance increases. However, this prototype still needs to improve communication so that the information is not distorted or lost when there is movement and dispersion of the water. It is hoped that it will form the basis for future research.

Keywords: prototype, underwater, communication, power, voltage, distance

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Authors: Chih-Wei Pai, Rong-Chang Jou

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Using A1 A2 police-reported accident data for years 2003–2010 in Taiwan, the paper examines anatomic injuries and crash characteristics specific to pedestrians in “facing traffic” and “back to traffic” crashes. There were 2768 and 7558 accidents involving pedestrians walking along with/against traffic respectively. Injuries sustained by pedestrians and crash characteristics in these two crash types were compared with those in other crash types (nearside crash, nearside dart-out crash, offside crash, offside dart-out crash). Main findings include that “back to traffic” crashes resulted in more severe injuries, and pedestrians in “back to traffic” crashes had increased head, neck, and spine injuries than those in other crash types; and there was an elevated risk of head injuries in unlit darkness and NBU (non-built-up) roadways. Several crash features (e.g. unlit darkness, overtaking maneuvers, phone use by pedestrians and drivers, intoxicated drivers) appear to be over-involved in “back to traffic” crashes. The implications of the research findings regarding pedestrian/driver education, enforcement, and remedial engineering design are discussed.

Keywords: pedestrian accident, crash characteristics, injury, facing traffic, back to traffic

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Nassim Dennouni, Yvan Peter, Luigi Lancieri, Zohra Slama

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The objective of this article is to make a bibliographic study on the recommendation of mobile learning activities that are used as part of the field trip scenarios. Indeed, the recommendation systems are widely used in the context of mobility because they can be used to provide learning activities. These systems should take into account the history of visits and teacher pedagogy to provide adaptive learning according to the instantaneous position of the learner. To achieve this objective, we review the existing literature on field trip scenarios to recommend mobile learning activities.

Keywords: mobile learning, field trip, mobile learning activities, collaborative filtering, recommendation system, point of interest, ACO algorithm

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Authors: Daniel Suárez, Jesús Tomas, Sandra Sendra, Sandra Viciano-Tudela, Luis Felipe Calle, Javier Urios, Jaime Lloret

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Our study is to develop a tool for the mobile phone to an assessment of body damage or determination of the degree of disability. This is a field of action of legal medicine and insurance with obvious economic implications. Those people who have suffered an accident or bodily harm demand a quantification of it. The assessment of bodily harm or disability by the expert medical professional is not exempt from complexity. Sometimes it is difficult to quantify pain; other times, the doctor faces simulators or exaggerators, and on many occasions, it is difficult to remember the extensive tables of scales whose details are complex to remember and apply. We present a tool, as a mobile application, that allows entering the sociodemographic date of the patient as well as the characteristics of the accident suffered by the person. With these preliminary data and introducing bodily damage, an approximate calculation of the compensation that the injured party should receive can be made. One of the results of this study is that it allows calculating joint mobility angles without the need to use a goniometer.

Keywords: mobile tool, body damage, personal injury and disability, telemedicine

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Authors: Thammarak Srimarut, Witthaya Mekhum

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This study analysed and developed a model for monk’s food bowl production on occupational health safety and environment at work for the encouragement of Rattanakosin local wisdom at Banbart Community. The process of blowpipe welding was necessary to produce the bowl which was very dangerous or 93.59% risk. After the employment of new sitting posture, the work risk was lower 48.41% or moderate risk. When considering in details, it was found that: 1) the traditional sitting posture could create work risk at 88.89% while the new sitting posture could create the work risk at 58.86%. 2) About the environmental pollution, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 61.11% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 40.47%. 3) On accidental risk, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the accident from welding at 94.44% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the accident from welding at 62.54%.

Keywords: occupational health safety, environment at work, Monk’s food bowl, machine intelligence

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Authors: Joel Carlos Vieira Reinhardt, Mariana de Freitas Dewes, Odair Lelis Gonçalez

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This paper proposes a method to implement a strategic framework for the quality management system that considers the analysis of prospective scenarios in the determination of policy, mission, vision, objectives, processes, monitoring, and goals. Semantic categorization of qualitative testimonial research on employee perception shows it was possible to implement an effective change in the organizations at the Department of Aerospace Science and Technology through the focus on the organization's needs management, producing a rupture with the historical managerial practice.

Keywords: management of company needs, mission, prospective scenarios, quality management, quality policy, vision

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Authors: Eithan Hourie, Miki Malul, Raphael Bar-El

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To investigate the relationship between various welfare policies and the value of job security, we conducted a study with 201 people regarding their assessments of the value of job security with respect to three elements: income stability, assurance of continuity of employment, and security in the job. The experiment simulated different welfare policy scenarios, such as the amount and duration of unemployment benefits, workfare, and basic income. The participants evaluated the value of job security in various situations. We found that the value of job security is approximately 22% of the starting salary, which is distributed as follows: 13% reflects income security, 8.7% reflects job security, and about 0.3% is for being able to keep their current employment in the future. To the best of our knowledge, this article is one of the pioneers in trying to quantify the value of job security in different market scenarios and at varying levels of welfare policy. Our conclusions may help decision-makers when deciding on a welfare policy.

Keywords: job security value, employment protection legislation, status quo bias, expanding welfare policy

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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Authors: Francesca Nicolosi, Teresa Cosola

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Climate changes in Mediterranean areas, such as the increase of average seasonal temperatures, the urban heat island phenomenon, the intensification of solar radiation and the extreme weather threats, cause disruption events, so that climate adaptation has become a pressing issue. Due to the strategic role that the built heritage holds in terms of environmental impact and energy waste and its potentiality, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of the existing building to climate change, in order to define different mitigation scenarios. The aim of this research work is to define an optimized and integrated methodology for the assessment of resilience levels and adaptation scenarios for existing buildings in Mediterranean urban areas. Moreover, the study of resilience indicators allows us to define building environmental and energy performance in order to identify the design and technological solutions for the improvement of the building and its urban area potentialities. The methodology identifies step-by-step different phases, starting from the detailed study of characteristic elements of urban system: climatic, natural, human, typological and functional components are analyzed in their critical factors and their potential. Through the individuation of the main perturbing factors and the vulnerability degree of the system to the risks linked to climate change, it is possible to define mitigation and adaptation scenarios. They can be different, according to the typological, functional and constructive features of the analyzed system, divided into categories of intervention, and characterized by different analysis levels (from the single building to the urban area). The use of software simulations allows obtaining information on the overall behavior of the building and the urban system, to generate predictive models in the medium and long-term environmental and energy retrofit and to make a comparative study of the mitigation scenarios identified. The studied methodology is validated on a case study.

Keywords: climate impact mitigation, energy efficiency, existing building heritage, resilience

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Authors: Yannis Stavrakakis, Damian Gordon

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Critical Thinking and Reflective Practice are two vital skills that students undertaking postgraduate studies should ideally possess. To help students develop and enhance these skills, this research developed several authentic activities to be undertaken as part of a module that is delivered early in a taught MSc to enhance these skills. One of the challenges of these topics is that they are somewhat ill-defined in terms of precisely what they mean, and also, there is no clear route to operationalizing the teaching of these skills. This research focuses on identifying suitable models of these skills and delivering them in a manner that is both clear and highly motivating. To achieve this, a class of 22 Master's students was divided into two groups, one was provided with a presentation and checklist about critical thinking skills, and the other group was given the same materials on the reflective practice process. The groups were given two scenarios each to analyze using their respective checklists and were asked to present their outcomes to each other and give peer review. The results were coded and compared, and key differences were noted, including the fact that the Critical Thinking outcomes were more future-focused, and the Reflective Practice outcomes were more past-focused and present-focused, as well as the fact that the Reflective Practice process generated a significantly wider range of perspectives on the scenarios.

Keywords: critical thinking, ethical scenarios, formative assessment, reflective practice

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Authors: Mohamed Y. M. Mohsen

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The viability of utilising mixed-oxide fuel (MOX) ((U₀.₉, rgPu₀.₁) O₂) as an accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) has been thoroughly investigated. MOX fuel provides the best example of a nuclear waste recycling process. The MCNPX 2.7 code was used to determine the main neutronic features, especially the radial power distribution, to identify the hot channel on which the thermal-hydraulic (TH) study was performed. Based on the computational fluid dynamics technique, the simulation of the rod-centered thermal-hydraulic subchannel model was implemented using COMSOL Multiphysics. TH analysis was utilised to determine the axially and radially distributed temperatures of the fuel and cladding materials, as well as the departure from the nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) along the coolant channel. COMSOL Multiphysics can simulate reality by coupling multiphysics, such as coupling between heat transfer and solid mechanics. The main solid structure parameters, such as the von Mises stress, volumetric strain, and displacement, were simulated using this coupling. When the neutronic, TH, and solid structure performances of UO₂ and ((U₀.₉, rgPu₀.₁) O₂) were compared, the results showed considerable improvement and an increase in safety margins with the use of ((U₀.₉, rgPu₀.₁) O₂).

Keywords: mixed-oxide, MCNPX, neutronic analysis, COMSOL-multiphysics, thermal-hydraulic, solid structure

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Authors: Fawaz Abdulmalek

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The two-stage flowshop assembly scheduling problem is considered in this paper. There are more than one parallel machines at stage one and an assembly machine at stage two. The jobs will be processed into the flowshop based on Johnson rule and two extensions of Johnson rule. A simulation model of the two-stage flowshop is constructed where both machines at stage one are subject to random failures. Three simulation experiments will be conducted to test the effect of the three job ranking rules on the makespan. Johnson Largest heuristic outperformed both Johnson rule and Johnson Smallest heuristic for two performed experiments for all scenarios where each experiments having five scenarios.

Keywords: flowshop scheduling, random failures, johnson rule, simulation

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Authors: Bangun F., Crevits B., Bellet T., Banet A., Boy G. A., Katili I.

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This paper seeks the incoherencies in cognitive process during an accident of Powered Two Wheelers (PTW) by understanding the factual sequences of events and causal relations for each case of accident. The principle of this approach is undertaking in-depth investigations on case per case of PTW accidents based on elaborate data acquisitions on accident sites that officially stamped in Police Crash Report (PCRs) 2012 of Medan with criteria, involved at least one PTW and resulted in serious injury and fatalities. The analysis takes into account four modules: accident chronologies, perpetrator, and victims, injury surveillance, vehicles and road infrastructures, comprising of traffic facilities, road geometry, road alignments and weather. The proposal for improvement could have provided a favorable influence on the chain of functional processes and events leading to collision. Decision Aiding Processes (DAP) assists in structuring different entities at different decisional levels, as each of these entities has its own objectives and constraints. The entities (A) are classified into 6 groups of accidents: solo PTW accidents; PTW vs. PTW; PTW vs. pedestrian; PTW vs. motor-trishaw; and PTW vs. other vehicles and consecutive crashes. The entities are also distinguished into 4 decisional levels: level of road users and street systems; operational level (crash-attended police officers or CAPO and road engineers), tactical level (Regional Traffic Police, Department of Transportation, and Department of Public Work), and strategic level (Traffic Police Headquarters (TCPHI)), parliament, Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Public Work). These classifications will lead to conceptualization of Problem Situations (P) and Problem Formulations (I) in DAP context. The DAP concerns the sequences process of the incidents until the time the accident occurs, which can be modelled in terms of five activities of procedural rationality: identification on initial human features (IHF), investigation on proponents attributes (PrAT), on Injury Surveillance (IS), on the interaction between IHF and PrAt and IS (intercorrelation), then unravel the sequences of incidents; filtering and disclosure, which include: what needs to activate, modify or change or remove, what is new and what is priority. These can relate to the activation or modification or new establishment of law. The PrAt encompasses the problems of environmental, road infrastructure, road and traffic facilities, and road geometry. The evaluation model (MP) is generated to bridge P and I since MP is produced by the intercorrelations among IHF, PrAT and IS extracted from the PCRs 2012 of Medan. There are 7 findings of incoherences: lack of knowledge and awareness on the traffic regulations and the risks of accidents, especially when riding between 0 < x < 10 km from house, riding between 22 p.m.–05.30 a.m.; lack of engagements on procurement of IHF Data by CAPO; lack of competency of CAPO on data procurement in accident-sites; no intercorrelation among IHF and PrAt and IS in the database systems of PCRs; lack of maintenance and supervision on the availabilities and the capacities of traffic facilities and road infrastructure; instrumental bias with wash-back impacts towards the TCPHI; technical robustness with wash-back impacts towards the CAPO and TCPHI.

Keywords: decision aiding processes, evaluation model, PTW accidents, police crash reports

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Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin

Abstract:

The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermo-hydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analysed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favouring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.

Keywords: corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Mohsin Ali Shaikh, Weiguo Song, Rehmat Karim, Muhammad Kashan Surahio, Muhammad Usman Shahid

Abstract:

Fire investigations face challenges due to the complexity of fire development, and real-world accidents lack repeatability, making it difficult to apply standardized approaches. The unpredictable nature of fires and the unique conditions of each incident contribute to the complexity, requiring innovative methods and tools for effective analysis and reconstruction. This study proposes to provide the modern accident analysis model through numerical reconstruction for fire investigation in textile buildings. This method employs computer simulation to enhance the overall effectiveness of textile-building investigations. The materials and evidence collected from past incidents reconstruct fire occurrences, progressions, and catastrophic processes. The approach is demonstrated through a case study involving a tragic textile factory fire in Karachi, Pakistan, which claimed 257 lives. The reconstruction method proves invaluable for determining fire origins, assessing losses, establishing accountability, and, significantly, providing preventive insights for complex fire incidents.

Keywords: fire investigation, numerical simulation, fire safety, fire incident, textile building

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Authors: T. Sarat Chandra, M. Maneesh Kumar, S. N. Mudliar, V. S. Chauhan, S. Mukherji, R. Sarada

Abstract:

The life cycle assessment (LCA) of biodiesel production from freshwater microalgae Scenedesmus dimorphus cultivated in open raceway pond is performed. Various scenarios for biodiesel production were simulated using primary and secondary data. The parameters varied in the modelled scenarios were related to biomass productivity, mode of culture mixing and type of energy source. The process steps included algae cultivation in open raceway ponds, harvesting by chemical flocculation, dewatering by mechanical drying option (MDO) followed by extraction, reaction and purification. Anaerobic digestion of defatted algal biomass (DAB) for biogas generation is considered as a co-product allocation and the energy derived from DAB was thereby used in the upstream of the process. The scenarios were analysed for energy demand, emissions and environmental impacts within the boundary conditions grounded on "cradle to gate" inventory. Across all the Scenarios, cultivation via raceway pond was observed to be energy intensive process. The mode of culture mixing and biomass productivity determined the energy requirements of the cultivation step. Emissions to Freshwater were found to be maximum contributing to 93-97% of total emissions in all the scenarios. Global warming potential (GWP) was the found to be major environmental impact accounting to about 99% of total environmental impacts in all the modelled scenarios. It was noticed that overall emissions and impacts were directly related to energy demand and an inverse relationship was observed with biomass productivity. The geographic location of an energy source affected the environmental impact of a given process. The integration of defatted algal remnants derived electricity with the cultivation system resulted in a 2% reduction in overall energy demand. Direct biogas generation from microalgae post harvesting is also analysed. Energy surplus was observed after using part of the energy in upstream for biomass production. Results suggest biogas production from microalgae post harvesting as an environmentally viable and sustainable option compared to biodiesel production.

Keywords: biomass productivity, energy demand, energy source, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA), microalgae, open raceway pond

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Sejin Jung, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim

Abstract:

Assessing the impact of climate change requires the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for simulation of climate under the influence of different factors, including topography. This study decreases climate change scenarios from the 13 global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks in studies using climate change scenarios of the CoupledModelIntercomparisonProject (CMIP5), and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. One of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates high applicability of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME). Furthermore, the study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate (D) that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate (C). The coefficient of variation (CVs) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, and accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted. This research was supported by a grant (MOIS-DP-2015-05) of Disaster Prediction and Mitigation Technology Development Program funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

Keywords: MME, North Korea, Koppen–Geiger, climatic zones, coefficient of variation, CV

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Omid Adibi, Nategheh Najafpour, Bijan Farhanieh, Hossein Afshin

Abstract:

Gas release from the pipelines is one of the main factors in the gas industry accidents. Released gas ejects from the pipeline as a free jet and in the growth process, the fuel gets mixed with the ambient air. Accordingly, an accidental spark will release the chemical energy of the mixture with an explosion. Gas explosion damages the equipment and endangers the life of staffs. So due to importance of safety in gas industries, prevision of accident can reduce the number of the casualties. In this paper, natural gas leakages from the low pressure pipelines are studied in two steps: 1) the simulation of mixing process and identification of flammable zones and 2) the simulation of wind effects on the mixing process. The numerical simulations were performed by using the finite volume method and the pressure-based algorithm. Also, for the grid generation the structured method was used. The results show that, in just 6.4 s after accident, released natural gas could penetrate to 40 m in vertical and 20 m in horizontal direction. Moreover, the results show that the wind speed is a key factor in dispersion process. In fact, the wind transports the flammable zones into the downstream. Hence, to improve the safety of the people and human property, it is preferable to construct gas facilities and buildings in the opposite side of prevailing wind direction.

Keywords: flammable zones, gas pipelines, numerical simulation, wind effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Tesfay Gidey Bezabeh, Tânia Sofia Oliveira, Josep Crous-Duran, João H. N. Palma

Abstract:

Ethiopia's economy depends strongly on Coffea arabica production. Coffee, like many other crops, is sensitive to climate change. An urgent development and application of strategies against the negative impacts of climate change on coffee production is important. Agroforestry-based system is one of the strategies that may ensure sustainable coffee production amidst the likelihood of future impacts of climate change. This system involves the combination of trees in buffer extremes, thereby modifying microclimate conditions. This paper assessed coffee production under 1) coffee monoculture and 2) coffee grown using an agroforestry system, under a) current climate and b) two different future climate change scenarios. The study focused on two representative coffee-growing regions of Ethiopia under different soil, climate, and elevation conditions. A process-based growth model (Yield-SAFE) was used to simulate coffee production for a time horizon of 40 years. Climate change scenarios considered were representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed that in monoculture systems, the current coffee yields are between 1200-1250 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with an expected decrease between 4-38% and 20-60% in scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. However, in agroforestry systems, the current yields are between 1600-2200 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; the decrease was lower, ranging between 4-13% and 16-25% in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. From the results, it can be concluded that coffee production under agroforestry systems has a higher level of resilience when facing future climate change and reinforces the idea of using this type of management in the near future for adapting climate change's negative impacts on coffee production.

Keywords: Albizia gummifera, CORDEX, Ethiopia, HADCM3 model, process-based model

Procedia PDF Downloads 89