Search results for: matrix dominated

Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Pooria Pasbakhsh, Rangika T. De Silva, Vahdat Vahedi, Hanafi Ismail

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The influence of three different types of halloysite nanotubes (HNTs) with different dimensions, namely as camel lake (CLA), Jarrahdale (JA) and Matauri Bay (MB), on their reinforcing ability of ethylene propylene dine monomer (EPDM) were investigated by varying the HNTs loading (from 0-15 phr). Mechanical properties of the nanocomposites improved with addition of all three HNTs, but CLA based nanocomposites exhibited a significant enhancement compared to the other HNTs. For instance, tensile properties of EPDM nanocomposites increased by 120%, 256% and 340% for MB, JA, and CLA, respectively with addition of 15 phr of HNTs. This could be due to the higher aspect ratio and higher surface area of CLA compared to others. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of nanocomposites at 15 phr of HNT loadings showed low amounts of pulled-out nanotubes which confirmed the presence of more embedded nanotubes inside the EPDM matrix, as well as aggregates within the fracture surface of EPDM/HNT nanocomposites.

Keywords: aspect ratio, halloysite nanotubes (HNTs), mechanical properties, rubber/clay nanocomposites

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Authors: Samar Aoujia, Théo Guérineaub, Rayan Zaitera, Evelyne Fargina, Younès Messaddeqb, Thierry Cardinala

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Two barium gallo-germanate glass series were elaborated to investigate the effect of the yttrium introduction on the glass physicochemical properties and crystallization behavior. One to twenty mol% of YO3/2 were either added into the glass matrix or substituted for gallium oxide. The glass structure was studied by Raman spectroscopy, and the thermal, optical, thermo-mechanical and physical properties are examined. The introduction of yttrium ions in both glass series increases the glass transition temperature, crystallization temperature, softening temperature, coefficient of linear thermal expansion and density. Through differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction analyses, it was found that competition occurs between the gallo-germanate zeolite-type phase and the yttrium-containing phase. From 13 mol% of YO3/2, the yttrium introduction impedes the formation of surface crystallization in these glasses.

Keywords: photonic, heavy-metal oxide, glass, crystallization

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: John A. Morales, Guillermo Guidi, B. M. Keune

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Electric Power supply is a crucial topic for economic and social development. Power outages statistics show that discharges atmospherics are imperative phenomena to produce those outages. In this context, it is necessary to correctly detect when overhead line insulators are faulted. In this paper, an algorithm to detect if a lightning stroke generates or not permanent fault on insulator strings is proposed. On top of that, lightning stroke simulations developed by using the Alternative Transients Program, are used. Based on these insights, a novel approach is designed that depends on mother functions analysis corresponding to the given variance-covariance matrix. Signals registered at the insulator string are projected on corresponding axes by the means of Principal Component Analysis. By exploiting these new axes, it is possible to determine a flashover characteristic zone useful to a good insulation design. The proposed methodology for flashover detection extends the existing approaches for the analysis and study of lightning performance on transmission lines.

Keywords: mother function, outages, lightning, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Esther Lorrayne M. Pereira, Adriana S. M. Batista, Fabíola A. S. Ribeiro, Adelina P. Santos, Luiz O. Faria

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In this work we have prepared nanocomposites made by mixing Poli (vinilidene fluoride) (PVDF), zirconium oxide (ZrO₂) and multi–walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) aiming to find dosimetric properties for applications in high dose dosimetry. The samples were irradiated with a Co-60 source at constant dose rate (16.7 kGy/h), with doses ranging from 100 to 2750 kGy. The UV-Vis and FTIR spectrophotometry have been used to monitor the appearing of C=C conjugated bonds and radio-oxidation of carbon (C=O). FTIR spectrometry has that the absorbance intensities at 1715 cm⁻¹ and 1730 cm⁻¹ can be used for high dosimetry purposes for gamma doses ranging from 500 to 2750 kGy. In this range, it is possible to observe a linear relationship between Abs & Dose. Fading of signal was evaluated for one month and reproducibility in 2000 kGy dose. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) was used for evaluated the dispersion ZrO₂ and MWCNT in the matrix of the PVDF.

Keywords: polymer, composite, high dose dosimetry, PVDF/ZrO₂/MWCNT

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Authors: Preeti Makkar, R. C. Agarwala, Vijaya Agarwala

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The present study focuses on the preparation of Al2O3 nanoparticles by top down approach i.e. mechanical milling using high energy planetary ball mill at 250 rpm for 40h. The milled Al2O3 nanoparticles are then used as the second phase to develop electroless (EL) Ni-P- Al2O3 nanocomposite coatings on mild steel substrate. An alkaline bath was used with a suspension of Al2O3 particles (4 g/L) for the synthesis of Ni-P-Al2O3 nanocomposite coating. The surface morphology, size range and phase analysis of as-prepared Al2O3 particles and the coatings were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM). The coatings were heat treated at 400°C for 1h in argon atmosphere and the hardness of the nanocomposite coatings was investigated with respect to Ni-P before and after heat treatment. The results showed that as milled Al2O3 nanoparticles exhibit irregular shaped and size ranges around 40-45 nm. The Al2O3 particles are uniformly distributed in Ni-P matrix. The microhardness of the coatings is found to be significantly improved after heat treatment (1126 VHN).

Keywords: Electroless (EL), Ni-P-Al2O3, nanocomposite, mechanical milling, microhardness

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Authors: G. H. B. Dilhari, A. A. D. T. Saparamadu

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The coir is one of the by-products of the coconut and the coir industry can be identified as one of the traditional industries in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is one of the prominent countries for the coir production. Due to the labour insensitiveness, the labourers are the significant factor in the coir production process. The study has analyzed the determinants and its impact on income of the household level coir yarn labourers. The study was conducted in the Kumarakanda Grama Niladhari division, Galle, Sri Lanka. Simple random sampling was used to generate the sample of 100 household level coir yarn labourers and structured questionnaire, personal interviews and discussion were performed to gather the required data. The obtained data were statistically analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test were carried out. The findings revealed that the household level coir yarn industry is dominated by the female workers and fewer amounts of workers have engaged this industry as the main occupation. In addition to that, elderly participation of the industry is greater than younger participation and most of them engaged as an extra income source. Level of education, the methods of engagement, satisfaction, labour’s children employment in the coir industry, support from the government, method of government support, working hours per day, employed as a main job, no of completed units per day, suffering any job related diseases and type of the diseases were related with income level of household level coir yarn labourers. The recommendations were formulated in respect to these problems including technological transformation for coir yarn production, strengthening of the raw material base and regulating the raw material supply, introduction of new technologies, markets and training programs, the establishment of the labourers association, the initiation of micro credit schemes, better consideration about the job oriented diseases.

Keywords: coir, coir yarn labourers, income, Galle

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Authors: Hamioud Saida, Khalfallah Salah

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In this study, a spectral element method is employed to predict the free vibration of a Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on a Winkler foundation with elastically restrained ends. The formulation of the dynamic stiffness matrix has been established by solving the differential equation of motion, which was transformed to frequency domain. Non-dimensional natural frequencies and shape modes are obtained by solving the partial differential equations, numerically. Numerical comparisons and examples are performed to show the effectiveness of the SEM and to investigate the effects of various parameters, such as the springs at the boundaries and the elastic foundation parameter on the vibration frequencies. The obtained results demonstrate that the present method can also be applied to solve the more general problem of the dynamic analysis of structures with higher order precision.

Keywords: elastically supported Euler-Bernoulli beam, free-vibration, spectral element method, Winkler foundation

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Authors: Nilgun Becenen

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In this study, the structural properties of composite materials with the plastic matrix, which are used in body parts of urban furniture were investigated. Surfaces of the specimens were observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM: JSM-5200, JEOL) and Climatic environmental test analyses in laboratory conditions were used to analyze the performance of the composite samples. Climate conditions were determined as follow; 3 hour working under the conditions of -10 ºC heat and 20 % moisture, Heating until 45 ºC for 4 hours, 3 hour work at 45 ºC, 3 hour work under the conditions of 45 ºC heat and 80 % moisture, Cooling at -10 ºC for 4 hours. In this cycle, the atmospheric conditions that urban furniture would be exposed to in the open air were taken into consideration. Particularly, sudden heat changes and humidity effect were investigated. The climate conditions show that performance in Low Temperatures: The endurance isn’t affected, hardness does not change, tensile, bending and impact resistance does not change, the view isn’t affected. It has a high environmental performance.

Keywords: fibre-reinforced material, glass fiber, textile science, polymer composites

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Authors: S. Sadhu, M. Ramgopal, S. Bhattacharyya

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Natural circulation loops (NCLs) are buoyancy driven flow systems without any moving components. NCLs have vast applications in geothermal, solar and nuclear power industry where reliability and safety are of foremost concern. Due to certain favorable thermophysical properties, especially near supercritical regions, carbon dioxide can be considered as an ideal loop fluid in many applications. In the present work, a high temperature NCL that uses supercritical carbon dioxide as loop fluid is analysed. The effects of relevant design and operating variables on loop performance are studied. The system operating under steady state is modelled taking into account the axial conduction through loop fluid and loop wall, and heat transfer with surroundings. The heat source is considered to be a heater with controlled heat flux and heat sink is modelled as an end heat exchanger with water as the external cold fluid. The governing equations for mass, momentum and energy conservation are normalized and are solved numerically using finite volume method. Results are obtained for a loop pressure of 90 bar with the power input varying from 0.5 kW to 6.0 kW. The numerical results are validated against the experimental results reported in the literature in terms of the modified Grashof number (Gr_m) and Reynolds number (Re). Based on the results, buoyancy and friction dominated regions are identified for a given loop. Parametric analysis has been done to show the effect of loop diameter, loop height, ambient temperature and insulation. The results show that for the high temperature loop, heat loss to surroundings affects the loop performance significantly. Hence this conjugate heat transfer between the loop and surroundings has to be considered in the analysis of high temperature NCLs.

Keywords: conjugate heat transfer, heat loss, natural circulation loop, supercritical carbon dioxide

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Authors: Juraj Belan, Lenka Hurtalová, Eva Tillová, Alan Vaško, Milan Uhríčik

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High-pressure turbine (HPT) blades of DV–2 jet engines are made from Ni–base superalloy, a former Soviet Union production, specified as ŽS6K. For improving its high-temperature resistance are blades covered with Al–Si diffusion layer. A regular operation temperature of HPT blades vary from 705°C to 750°C depending on jet engine regime. An over-crossing working temperature range causes degradation of protective alitize layer as well as base material–gamma matrix and gamma prime particles what decreases turbine blade lifetime. High-temperature degradation has mainly diffusion mechanism and causes coarsening of strengthening phase gamma prime and protective alitize layer thickness growing. All changes have a significant influence on high-temperature properties of base material.

Keywords: alitize layer, gamma prime phase, high-temperature degradation, Ni–base superalloy ŽS6K, turbine blade

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Authors: N. C. Ghosh, Niladri Das, Prolay Mondal, Ranajit Ghosh

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Groundwater quality deterioration due to human activities has become a prime factor of modern life. The major concern of the study is to access spatial variation of groundwater quality and to identify the sources of groundwater chemicals and its impact on human health of the concerned area. Multivariate statistical techniques, cluster, principal component analysis, and hydrochemical fancies are been applied to measure groundwater quality data on 14 parameters from 107 sites distributed randomly throughout the Birbhum district. Five factors have been extracted using Varimax rotation with Kaiser Normalization. The first factor explains 27.61% of the total variance where high positive loading have been concentrated in TH, Ca, Mg, Cl and F (Fluoride). In the studied region, due to the presence of basaltic Rajmahal trap fluoride contamination is highly concentrated and that has an adverse impact on human health such as fluorosis. The second factor explains 24.41% of the total variance which includes Na, HCO₃, EC, and SO₄. The last factor or the fifth factor explains 8.85% of the total variance, and it includes pH which maintains the acidic and alkaline character of the groundwater. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) grouped the 107 sampling station into two clusters. One cluster having high pollution and another cluster having less pollution. Moreover hydromorphological facies viz. Wilcox diagram, Doneen’s chart, and USSL diagram reveal the quality of the groundwater like the suitability of the groundwater for irrigation or water used for drinking purpose like permeability index of the groundwater, quality assessment of groundwater for irrigation. Gibb’s diagram depicts that the major portion of the groundwater of this region is rock dominated origin, as the western part of the region characterized by the Jharkhand plateau fringe comprises basalt, gneiss, granite rocks.

Keywords: correlation, factor analysis, hydrological facies, hydrochemistry

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Authors: José A. Menezes, Giordano Cabral, Bruno T. Gomes

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Choosing good features is an essential part of machine learning. Recent techniques aim to automate this process. For instance, feature learning intends to learn the transformation of raw data into a useful representation to machine learning tasks. In automatic audio classification tasks, this is interesting since the audio, usually complex information, needs to be transformed into a computationally convenient input to process. Another technique tries to generate features by searching a feature space. Genetic algorithms, for instance, have being used to generate audio features by combining or modifying them. We find this approach particularly interesting and, despite the undeniable advances of feature learning approaches, we wanted to take a step forward in the use of genetic algorithms to find audio features, combining them with more conventional methods, like PCA, and inserting search control mechanisms, such as constraints over a confusion matrix. This work presents the results obtained on particular audio classification problems.

Keywords: feature generation, feature learning, genetic algorithm, music information retrieval

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Authors: Vincent Liu

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Machine learning algorithms (ML) can achieve high accuracy in predicting outcomes compared to classical models. Metaheuristic, nature-inspired algorithms can enhance traditional ML algorithms by optimizing them such as by performing feature selection. We compare ten ML algorithms to predict 30-day hospital readmission rates for diabetes patients in the US using a dataset from UCI Machine Learning Repository with feature selection performed by Greywolf nature-inspired algorithm. The baseline accuracy for the initial random forest model was 65%. After performing feature engineering, SMOTE for class balancing, and Greywolf optimization, the machine learning algorithms showed better metrics, including F1 scores, accuracy, and confusion matrix with improvements ranging in 10%-30%, and a best model of XGBoost with an accuracy of 95%. Applying machine learning this way can improve patient outcomes as unnecessary rehospitalizations can be prevented by focusing on patients that are at a higher risk of readmission.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, 30-day readmission, metaheuristic

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. However, thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically' vertically integrated,' with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is a need for increasing renewable energy, such as wind and solar, in electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model, which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allowing any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

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This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

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Authors: Haniye Dehestani, Yadollah Ordokhani

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In this work, we present an efficient approach for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations, which are based on Legendre and Laguerre polynomials. First, we introduced the pseudo-operational matrices of integer and variable fractional order of integration by use of some properties of Riemann-Liouville fractional integral. Then, applied together with collocation method and Legendre-Laguerre functions for solving variable-order time-fractional partial differential equations. Also, an estimation of the error is presented. At last, we investigate numerical examples which arise in physics to demonstrate the accuracy of the present method. In comparison results obtained by the present method with the exact solution and the other methods reveals that the method is very effective.

Keywords: collocation method, fractional partial differential equations, legendre-laguerre functions, pseudo-operational matrix of integration

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Authors: Hua Jin, Il Kim

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The biocompatible tadpole-shaped polypeptides with one cyclic polypeptides ring and two alkyl chain tails were synthesized by N-heterocyclic carbine (NHC)-mediated ring-opening polymerization (ROP) of α-amino acid N-carboxyanhydrides (NCAs). First, the NHC precursor, denoted as [NHC(H)][HCO₃], with two alkyl chains at the nitrogen was prepared by a simple anion metathesis of imidazole(in)ium chlorides with KHCO₃. Then NHC releasing from the [NHC(H)][HCO₃] directly initiated the ROP of NCA to produce the cyclic polypeptides. Finally, the tadpole-shaped polypeptides with two regulable tails were obtained. The target polypeptides were characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum (1H NMR), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectra (MALDI-TOF MS). This pioneering approach simplifies the synthesis procedures of tadpole-shaped polypeptides compared to other methods, which usually requires specific intramolecular ring-closure reaction.

Keywords: cyclic polypeptides, α-amino acid N-carboxyanhydrides, N-heterocyclic carbene, ring-opening polymerization, tadpole-shaped

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Authors: Valentina Futoryanova, Hugh Hunt

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One of the common failure modes of the diesel engine turbochargers is high cycle fatigue of the turbine wheel blades. Mistuning of the blades due to the casting process is believed to contribute to the failure mode. Laser vibrometer is used to characterize mistuning for a population of turbine wheels through the analysis of the blade response to piezo speaker induced noise. The turbine wheel design under investigation is radial and is typically used in 6-12 L diesel engine applications. Amplitudes and resonance frequencies are reviewed and summarized. The study also includes test results for a paddle wheel that represents a perfectly tuned system and acts as a reference. Mass spring model is developed for the paddle wheel and the model suitability is tested against the actual data. Randomization is applied to the stiffness matrix to model the mistuning effect in the turbine wheels. Experimental data is shown to have good agreement with the model.

Keywords: vibration, radial turbines, mistuning, turbine blades, modal analysis, periodic structures, finite element

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Authors: Khader S. Al-Aidmat, Venus W. Samawi

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Blurred vision in the misty atmosphere is essential problem which needs to be resolved. To solve this problem, we developed a technique to restore foggy degraded image from its original version using Back-propagation neural network (BP-NN). The suggested technique is based on mapping between foggy scene and its corresponding original scene. Seven different approaches are suggested based on type of features used in image restoration. Features are extracted from spatial and spatial-frequency domain (using DCT). Each of these approaches comes with its own BP-NN architecture depending on type and number of used features. The weight matrix resulted from training each BP-NN represents a fog filter. The performance of these filters are evaluated empirically (using PSNR), and perceptually. By comparing the performance of these filters, the effective features that suits BP-NN technique for restoring foggy images is recognized. This system proved its effectiveness and success in restoring moderate foggy images.

Keywords: artificial neural network, discrete cosine transform, feed forward neural network, foggy image restoration

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Authors: Raphael Naryongo, Philip Ngare, Anthony Waititu

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This paper deals with numerical simulation of Wishart processes for a single asset risky pricing model whose volatility is described by Wishart affine diffusion processes. The multi-factor specification of volatility will make the model more flexible enough to fit the stock market data for short or long maturities for better returns. The Wishart process is a stochastic process which is a positive semi-definite matrix-valued generalization of the square root process. The aim of the study is to model the log asset stock returns under the double Wishart stochastic volatility model. The solution of the log-asset return dynamics for Bi-Wishart processes will be obtained through Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes. The numerical results on the asset returns are compared to the existing models returns such as Heston stochastic volatility model and double Heston stochastic volatility model

Keywords: euler schemes, log-asset return, infinitesimal generator, wishart diffusion affine processes

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Authors: R. Kamarudzaman, A. Kalam, N. A. Mohd Fadzil

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Oil Palm Fruit Bunch Fiber (OPEFB) was used as secondary filler in HDPE/clay nanocomposites. The composites were prepared by melt compounding which contains High Density Polyethylene (HDPE), OPEFB fibers, Maleic Anhydride Graft Polyethylene (MAPE) and four different clay loading (3, 5, 7 and 10 PE nanoclay pellets per hundred of HDPE pellets). Four OPEFB sizes (180 µm, 250 µm, 300 µm and 355 µm) were added in the composites to investigate their effects on fracture toughness. Fracture toughness of the composites were determined according to ASTM D5045 and Single Edge Notch Bending (SENB) been employed during the test. The effects of alkali treatment were also investigated in this study. The results indicate that the fracture toughness slightly increased as clay loading increased. The highest value of fracture toughness was 0.47 and 1.06 MPa.m1/2 at 5 phr for both types of clay loading. The presence of filler as reinforcement with the matrix indicates the enhancement of composites compared to those without the filler.

Keywords: oil palm empty fruit bunch, fiber, polyethylene, polymer nanocomposite, impact strength

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Authors: Rahma Fitriani, Eni Sumarminingsih, Suci Astutik

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In a fast growing region, conversion of agricultural lands which are surrounded by some new development sites will occur sooner than expected. This phenomenon has been experienced by many regions in Indonesia, especially the fringe of Jakarta (BoDeTaBek). Being Indonesia’s capital city, rapid conversion of land in this area is an unavoidable process. The land conversion expands spatially into the fringe regions, which were initially dominated by agricultural land or conservation sites. Without proper control or growth management, this activity will invite greater costs than benefits. The current land use is the use which maximizes its value. In order to maintain land for agricultural activity or conservation, some efforts are needed to keep the land value of this activity as high as possible. In this case, the knowledge regarding the functional relationship between land value and its driving forces is necessary. In a fast growing region, development externalities are the assumed dominant driving force. Land value is the product of the past decision of its use leading to its value. It is also affected by the local characteristics and the observed surrounded land use (externalities) from the previous period. The effect of each factor on land value has dynamic and spatial virtues; an empirical spatial dynamic land value model will be more useful to capture them. The model will be useful to test and to estimate the extent of land use externalities on land value in the short run as well as in the long run. It serves as a basis to formulate an effective urban growth management’s policy. This study will apply the model to the case of land value in the fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan. The model will be used further to predict the effect of externalities on land value, in the form of prediction map. For the case of Jakarta’s fringe, there is some evidence about the significance of neighborhood urban activity – negative externalities, the previous land value and local accessibility on land value. The effects are accumulated dynamically over years, but they will fully affect the land value after six years.

Keywords: growth management, land use externalities, land value, spatial panel dynamic

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Authors: Siah Koka, Rony Swennen

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Arumeru district is located in Arusha region in Upper Pangani basin in Tanzania. Economically it is dominated with agricultural activities. Banana, coffee, maize, beans, tomatoes, and cassava are the most important food and cash crops. This paper characterized the banana-based farming system of Arumeru district, evaluates its sustainability as well as research needs. The household questionnaire was performed on-site and on farm observation. Transect walk also involved to identify different agro- ecological zones. Results show that farm holdings (home gardens) are smaller than a hectare (0.7 ha) and continue to fragment as population continues to grow. Banana cultivation is the backbone of the farming systems present both in the upland and plains. In the upper belt banana found their place in the forest, which form the home garden structure typical to East African highland banana production systems. However, in the plains, cultivation is done in monoculture and depends heavily on irrigation. We found slightly less cultivars present and hypothetically more pest and disease pressure. This was mainly seen for Fusarium oxysporum species, which eradicates susceptible cultivars such as Mchare cultivars rapidly given the method of irrigation. The smaller permanent upland home garden plots provide thus a more suitable environment where banana perform better. It should be noted that findings indicated good performance to occur in the less suitable plains too. Good management is believed to be the most influencing factor, although our survey failed in identifying them. Population pressure is currently pushing the sustainable system in the uplands to its boundaries. Nutrient mining, deforestation and changing rain patterns threat production not only on Mt. Meru but on a global scale.

Keywords: Arumeru district, banana-based farming system, Tanzania, Arumeru district

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Authors: SHWETA SRIKUMAR

Abstract:

Winter stratospheric dynamics is a highly variable and spectacular field of research in middle atmosphere. It is well believed that the interaction of energetic planetary waves with mean flow causes the temperature to increase in the stratosphere and associated circulation reversal. This wave driven sudden disturbances in the polar stratosphere is defined as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. The main objective of the present work is to investigate the mid-winter major stratospheric warming events on equatorial dynamics over Peninsular India. To explore the effect of mid-winter stratospheric warming on Indian region (60oE -100oE), we have selected the winters 2003/04, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2012/13 and 2018/19. This study utilized the data from ERA-Interim Reanalysis, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from NOAA and TRMM satellite data from NASA mission. It is observed that a sudden drop in OLR (averaged over Indian Region) occurs during the course of warming for the winters 2005/06, 2008/09 and 2018/19. But in winters 2003/04 and 2012/13, drop in OLR happens prior to the onset of major warming. Significant amplitude of planetary wave activity is observed in equatorial lower stratosphere which indicates the propagation of extra-tropical planetary waves from high latitude to equator. During the course of warming, a strong downward propagation of EP flux convergence is observed from polar to equator region. The polar westward wind reaches upto 20oN and the weak eastward wind dominates the equator during the winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2018/19. But in 2012/13 winter, polar westward wind reaches upto equator. The equatorial wind at 2008/09 is dominated by strong westward wind. Further detailed results will be presented in the conference.

Keywords: Equatorial dynamics, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Planetary Waves

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Authors: Tyler Gill, Sophia Daniels

Abstract:

The paper examines how accessing the spatial-temporal constrains of data will help inform policymakers and law enforcement officials. The authors utilize Chicago crime data from 2006-2016 to demonstrate how the Emerging Hot Spot Tool is an ideal hot spot clustering approach to analyze crime data. Traditional approaches include density maps or creating a spatial weights matrix to include the spatial-temporal constrains. This new approach utilizes a space-time implementation of the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to visualize the data more quickly to make better decisions. The research will help complement socio-cultural research to find key patterns to help frame future policies and evaluate the implementation of prior strategies. Through this analysis, homicide trends and patterns are found more effectively and recommendations for use by non-traditional users of GIS are offered for real life implementation.

Keywords: crime mapping, emerging hot spot analysis, Getis-Ord Gi*, spatial-temporal analysis

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Authors: Mohamed H. Gabr, Kiyoshi Uzawa

Abstract:

The current study aims to investigate the effect of fillers with different geometries and sizes on the interfacial shear properties of PA6 composites with de-sized carbon fiber. The fillers which have been investigated are namely; nano-layer silicates (nanoclay), sub-micro aluminum titanium (ALTi) particles, and multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT). By means of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), epoxide group which defined as a sizing agent, has been removed. Sizing removal can reduce the acid parameter of carbon fibers surface promoting bonding strength at the fiber/matrix interface which is a desirable property for the carbon fiber composites. Microdroplet test showed that the interfacial shear strength (IFSS) has been enhanced with the addition of 10wt% ALTi by about 23% comparing with neat PA6. However, with including other types of fillers into PA6, the results did not show enhancement of IFSS.

Keywords: sub-micro particles, nano-composites, interfacial shear strength, polyamide 6

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Authors: Francky Fouedjio

Abstract:

Multivariate geostatistical data have become omnipresent in the geosciences and pose substantial analysis challenges. One of them is the grouping of data locations into spatially contiguous clusters so that data locations within the same cluster are more similar while clusters are different from each other, in some sense. Spatially contiguous clusters can significantly improve the interpretation that turns the resulting clusters into meaningful geographical subregions. In this paper, we develop an agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach that takes into account the spatial dependency between observations. It relies on a dissimilarity matrix built from a non-parametric kernel estimator of the spatial dependence structure of data. It integrates existing methods to find the optimal cluster number and to evaluate the contribution of variables to the clustering. The capability of the proposed approach to provide spatially compact, connected and meaningful clusters is assessed using bivariate synthetic dataset and multivariate geochemical dataset. The proposed clustering method gives satisfactory results compared to other similar geostatistical clustering methods.

Keywords: clustering, geostatistics, multivariate data, non-parametric

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Authors: Azza A. Al-Ghamdi, Abir S. Abdel-Naby

Abstract:

Cellulose acetate (CA) is a natural biodegradable polymer. It forms transparent films by the casting technique. CA suffers from high degree of water permeability as well as the low thermal stability at high temperatures. To adjust the CA polymeric films to the manufacture of food packaging, its thermal and mechanical properties should be improved. The modification of CA by grafting it with N-Amino phenyl maleimide (N-APhM) led to the construction of hydrophobic branches throughout the polymeric matrix which reduced its wettability as compared to the parent CA. The branches built onto the polymeric chains had been characterized by UV/Vis, ¹³C-NMR and ESEM. The improvement of the thermal properties was investigated and compared to the parent CA using thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), differential thermal analysis (DTA), contact angle and mechanical testing measurements. The results revealed that the water-uptake was reduced by increasing the graft percentage. The thermal and mechanical properties were also improved.

Keywords: cellulose acetate, food packaging, graft copolymerization, thermal properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 203